US Macro Updates

The clamour has been increasing for a soft landing on the back of inflation steadily trending down. This view got some further support from the latest PCE data. Headline PCE...

Retail Inventories had been rising for more than a few months now. However, over the past couple of months that data has moderated a bit. Firstly, the Census Bureau’s Advance...

Wholesale inventories for the month of October were estimated to be at a month end level of $899.4Bn, approx. 0.2% lower than the revised September 2023 level. Growth in Wholesale...

The TCB Consumer Confidence Index increased slightly in November to 102.0 from a downwardly upwardly revised 99.1 in October. After falling 3 months in row, the confidence index improved a...

Even though interest rates have had a stratospheric rise in the past 18-24 months, US Residential House Prices have not fallen – in fact they have risen. In 2022, as...

New Home Sales had been rising through the first half of 2023. However, with mortgage rates firmly above 7.0%, these high interest rates are making a significant dent in new...

Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the banking panics of SVB, SB and...

The latest flash PMI estimate from S&P Global for November 2023, once again, did not show much of a change from the last month. PMIs have mostly plateaued in the...

Durable Goods Orders fell sharply in October on the back of a slump in transportation orders. Headline durable goods orders decreased a sizeable 5.4%. Transportation orders declined 14.8% to US$92bn...

Existing Home Sales dropped a more-than-expected 4.1% in October to a SA annual rate of 3.79mn units. This level is now not only lower than the end 2022 lows, it...

New US Home Construction continues to be fairly resilient. Building Permits in October were at a SA annual rate of 1.487mn. That was 1.1% above the September level of 1.471....

Industrial production declined a substantial 0.6% in October. The previous estimate for September was also revised lower from 0.3% to 0.1%. However, even though the print was low, much of...

With the March banking crisis almost out of memory now, focus has shifted from use of emergency liquidity facilities of the Fed to the flow of deposits from the banks...

The slide in the NAHB Index continued for a 4th month in a row. The NAHB Index is based on a monthly survey of home builders and is designed to...

Retail Sales fell on a m-o-m basis for the first time since March as consumers cut spending on motor vehicles, furniture and miscellaneous store items. While this is the first...

Just like it has happened so many times in the past year or so, surprises on CPI and PPI have moved hand in hand. Yesterday, we saw both CPI and...

Headline CPI and Core CPI both came in softer than expected in October. Firstly, given the sharp drop in energy prices, a reduction in headline inflation was quite expected. Second,...

The US Housing Market is a key component of the overall US economy and often a leading indicator of upcoming economic performance! Mortgage rates have spiked substantially in recent weeks...

For a 3rd month in a row, the inflation expectations data in the latest NY Fed Consumer Survey report was mostly stable. This is in contrast to the sharp drops...

Consumer sentiment slipped once again in the November’s preliminary reading. The headline sentiment index has fallen now for 4 months in a row. After a dismal 2022, consumer and consequently...

After 2 months of increases in the Manheim Index of Used Car Prices, October was back in familiar territory of decline in the index. In the latest print of the...

After the previous month’s blockbuster jobs number, the NFP print for October was a modest one. Total non farm payroll increased by 150K in October against a consensus expectation of...

Economic activity in the Services sector expanded in October for the 10th consecutive month. The headline PMI registered 51.8, dropping almost 2 points from 53.6 in September. The sizeable drop...

The US Housing Market is a key component of the overall US economy and often a leading indicator of upcoming economic performance! After a relatively positive 2023 first half, high...

Non-farm business sector labor productivity increased a substantial 4.7% in the third quarter of 2023. That was significantly above consensus expectations for a productivity increase of 4.1%. Output increased by...

Construction spending in the US was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of $1.996 Tn in September, 0.4% above the revised August estimate of $1.988 Tn. This still reflects...

The number of Job Openings on the last business day of September was relatively unchanged from the previous month at 9.6mn. However, the figure was higher than consensus expectations of...

Private sector employment increased by 113K jobs in October. Consensus expectations were for an increase of 150K. This was clearly a downside surprise to the market. However, the market often...

Manufacturing in the US had seen a little bit of a rebound over the past few months based on various PMI data. That trend took a bit of a breather...

Pending Home Sales registered a big slump of 7.1% in August. The Index decreased from 77.3 in July to 71.8 in August. The sharp drop is not surprising and in...