US Macro Updates

The One Stop Portal for US Macroeconomic Data. Simplified and Summarized! 

We simplify and summarize key data so that you don’t have to spend hours reading confusing and long media releases. Read key economic releases and major events here in under 2 minutes. And we will explain the key takeaway for you. Stay informed and form a robust view on macroeconomic matters to aid your successful investment decisions

New Home Sales

24th Jul 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: New home sales are a leading indicator of broader housing market activity because they are recorded at the point of contract signing, giving them a forward-looking edge over existing home sales, which are logged at closing. The series also reflects builder confidence directly, as developers adjust construction pipelines and incentive offerings in response to real-time demand signals. Mortgage rate sensitivity remains a dominant force shaping affordability, and any sustained elevation in borrowing costs tends to compress the pool of qualified buyers, putting downward pressure on sales volumes. Over the past 12 to 24 months, new home sales have navigated a choppy trajectory, with builders leaning on mortgage rate buydowns and price concessions to sustain traffic amid persistently high financing costs. The June reading of 0.628 million units, up 1.62% from the prior month, suggests demand is holding a modest upward footing, signaling that buyers are gradually adjusting to the prevailing rate environment. This resilience carries positive implications for residential investment, a component of GDP that has faced headwinds in recent quarters, as stronger contract activity points toward increased construction spending in the months ahead. However, the overall level of new home sales remains significantly lower than historical past. Sustained momentum in the future would provide a meaningful tailwind to overall economic output through the second half of 2026.

New Home Sales increased 1.62% in Jun to 0.628mn.

25th Jun 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: New home sales are a leading indicator of broader housing market activity, as they are recorded at contract signing rather than closing, making them a timely reflection of current buyer demand and builder confidence in committing to new construction. Unlike existing home sales, which remain constrained by the lock-in effect of homeowners reluctant to trade low fixed-rate mortgages for higher ones, new home sales capture incremental demand at the margin and signal where residential investment is headed. Elevated mortgage rates have continued to weigh heavily on affordability, pricing out a meaningful share of prospective buyers and forcing builders to rely on incentives such as rate buydowns and price concessions to sustain traffic. Over the past one to two years, new home sales have oscillated in a relatively narrow range, reflecting a market caught between structurally tight existing inventory that pushes some buyers toward new builds and affordability pressures that cap how far demand can expand. The 7.35% monthly decline to 0.58 million units in May is a meaningful pullback that suggests those affordability headwinds are intensifying rather than easing heading into the summer season. A reading at this level points to softening residential fixed investment, which feeds directly into GDP calculations and could act as a modest drag on overall economic growth in the coming quarters. Builder sentiment is likely to come under renewed pressure if sales volumes do not recover, potentially leading to scaled-back housing starts and permitting activity in the months ahead.

New Home Sales decreased 7.35% in May to 0.58mn.

28th May 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: New home sales are a leading indicator of housing market health, reported at contract signing rather than closing, which makes them more timely than existing home sales and a direct reflection of builder confidence in forward demand. Unlike the existing home market, where inventory constraints have persistently distorted activity, new home sales capture builder willingness to commit to construction pipelines, making the series a meaningful input into residential investment forecasts. The April 2026 reading of 0.622 million units represents a 6.18% month-over-month decline, signaling a meaningful softening in buyer demand that likely reflects ongoing affordability pressures tied to elevated mortgage rates. Over the past 12 to 24 months, new home sales have oscillated in a relatively narrow range as builders used incentives and mortgage rate buydowns to sustain traffic, but those tools have limits when financing costs remain persistently high. A pullback of this magnitude raises questions about whether the recent stabilization in the series was durable or merely a temporary response to promotional activity by builders. Weaker new home sales translate directly into reduced residential investment, a component of GDP, and can foreshadow slower starts and permits in the months ahead. If this softness persists, it will weigh on construction employment and broader housing-related economic activity through the second half of 2026.

New Home Sales decreased 6.18% in Apr to 0.622mn.

6th May 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: New home sales are a leading indicator of housing market health, capturing contract signings at the point of sale rather than closing, and they reflect builder confidence in forward demand since developers only break ground when they expect buyers to follow. Unlike existing home sales, which remain constrained by the lock-in effect of homeowners reluctant to surrender low pandemic-era mortgage rates, new construction offers builders the flexibility to buy down rates and offer incentives, making this series particularly important to watch in the current cycle. Mortgage rates have remained a persistent headwind to affordability over the past two years, keeping overall sales volumes below pre-tightening cycle peaks and weighing on the broader residential investment component of GDP. The trend across the past twelve to twenty-four months has been choppy, with sales oscillating in a relatively narrow range as buyers have struggled to absorb both elevated borrowing costs and persistently high home prices. March’s reading of 0.682 million units marks a solid 7.40% monthly gain and, if sustained, would signal a meaningful improvement in demand conditions heading into the spring selling season. A move of this magnitude in new home sales typically feeds through into stronger residential fixed investment in the GDP accounts with a lag of one to three quarters. This print will be closely watched by the Federal Reserve as it weighs the resilience of the housing sector against its broader inflation and rate path deliberations.

New Home Sales increased 7.40% in Mar to 0.682mn.

New Home Sales – March 2026: +7.40% (0.682mn)

29th Mar 2026

Key takeaway: The latest U.S. new home sales data (January 2026 release) were notably weak, pointing to a soft start to the year for the housing market. New single-family home sales fell sharply by 17.6% month-on-month to an annualised pace of about 587,000 units, marking the lowest level since late 2022 and well below market expectations. The decline was broad-based across regions and partly attributed to severe winter weather, though underlying demand also appears constrained by affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates. At the same time, inventory rose to roughly 476,000 homes (around 9.7 months of supply), indicating a growing overhang of unsold properties, while the median sales price declined about 6.8% year-on-year to ~$400,500. Overall, the data reinforce the view that the new home market is losing momentum: despite some earlier stabilisation, higher borrowing costs, rising inventory, and structural constraints such as labour shortages and expensive building materials are weighing on both demand and new construction activity. 

20th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: (Delayed release due to govt shutdown) – The new home sales data has been amongst the most delayed statistics from the Census Bureau stemming from the recent government shutdown. The latest report provides new home sales data for the months of November and December. New Home Sales for the month of December came in at about 745K. The figure was higher than consensus expectations of 732K. New home sales for the month of November were 758K. Monthly new home sales prints tend to be very volatile with a low degree of confidence and subject to revisions. Right before the government shutdown, we had seen a sharp jump in new home sales from 664K to 800K. New home buyers remain very sensitive to interest rates. On the balance, new home sales is significantly lower than the post covid highs, but at around 700K-800K they are in line with pre-pandemic averages. However, this also need to be viewed in the context of the recent increase in total US population. High mortgage rates and increased prices continue to be a impediment for first time home buyers. Mortgage rates have come down towards 6.1% from around 7% at the start of 2025. There is still demand for housing, but it is highly sensitive to mortgage rates. Builder inventory has been rising, with home builders offering sharper discounts. The sharper discounts were also attributable to the rise in new home sales. As rates decline further, activity is expected to gradually pick up in the real estate market. However, till that happens, the environment remains tough for new home builders with activity in the NHS remaining low and inventory piling up. Builder confidence also remains at multi year lows. The median home price was US$414K. The median sales price was approx. 4% higher than the previous month of November 2025 and approx 2% lower than the year ago level.  The SA adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of December was 472K which represents approx. 7.7 months supply at the current rate.  

13th Jan 2026

Key takeaway: (Delayed release due to govt shutdown) – The new home sales data has been amongst the most delayed statistics from the Census Bureau stemming from the recent government shutdown. The latest report provides new home sales data for the month of October. New Home Sales for the month of October came in at about 737K. The figure was higher than consensus expectations of 716K and also higher than the previous months figure of 738K. Monthly new home sales prints tend to be very volatile with a low degree of confidence and subject to revisions. Right before the government shutdown, we had seen a sharp jump in new home sales from 664K to 800K. New home buyers remain very sensitive to interest rates. On the balance, new home sales is significantly lower than the post covid highs, but at around 700K-800K they are in line with pre-pandemic averages. However, this also need to be viewed in the context of the recent increase in total US population. High mortgage rates and increased prices continue to be a impediment for first time home buyers. Mortgage rates have come down towards 6.3% from around 7% at the start of 2025. There is still demand for housing, but it is highly sensitive to mortgage rates. Builder inventory has been rising, with home builders offering sharper discounts. The sharper discounts were also attributable to the rise in new home sales. As rates decline further, activity is expected to gradually pick up in the real estate market. However, till that happens, the environment remains tough for new home builders with activity in the NHS remaining low and inventory piling up. Builder confidence also remains at multi year lows. The median home price was US$392K. The median sales price saw a sharp drop of 3.3% from the previous month of September 2025 and a 8% drop from the year ago level.  The SA adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 488K which represents approx. 7.9 months supply at the current rate.  

24th Sep 2025

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of August at about 800K – a whopping 20% increase over the previous month. The figure was also way above consensus expectations of 650K. Monthly new home sales prints tend to be very volatile with a low degree of confidence and subject to revisions. Yet, the sharp jump in the latest data release is an indicator of how sensitive home buying is to interest rates. Mortgage rates have come down towards 6.3% from around 7% at the start of the year. There is still demand for housing, but it is highly sensitive to mortgage rates. Builder inventory has been rising, with home builders offering sharper discounts. The sharper discounts were also attributable to the rise in new home sales. As rates decline further, activity is expected to gradually pick up in the real estate market. However, till that happens, the environment remains tough for new home builders with activity in the NHS remaining low and inventory piling up. Builder confidence also remains at multi year lows. The median home price was US$413K. The SA adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 490K which represents approx. 7.4 months supply at the current rate.  

25th Aug 2025

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of July at about 652K – 0.6% below the previous month’s figure of 656K. The print was above consensus expectations of 635K. Monthly new home sales prints tend to be very volatile with a low degree of confidence and subject to revisions. Even though the latest month print came in above expectations, NHS remain at multi year lows. Builder inventory has been rising, with home builders offering sharper discounts. The share of builders who reported using sales incentives reached a post-pandemic high of 66% this month as they seek to unload an inventory of completed homes at the highest level since 2009. With mortgage rates having soared back up, housing activity had slowed down once again. At the same time, more sellers are returning to the EHS market and increased inventory listing is expected to bring some balance back to the US Residential market which had been favoring the sellers for most of the years post the pandemic. As rates decline further, activity is expected to gradually pick up in the real estate market. However, till that happens, the environment remains tough for new home builders with activity in the NHS remaining low and inventory piling up. Builder confidence also remains at multi year lows. The median home price was US$403.8K. The SA adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 499K which represents approx. 9.2 months supply at the current rate.  

24th Jul 2025

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of June at about 627K – just slightly above 0.6% the previous month’s figure of 623K. The print was substantially lower than consensus expectations of 649K. Monthly new home sales prints tend to be very volatile with a low degree of confidence and subject to revisions. NHS had sharply risen by 10% in April and has fallen by an almost equal percentage in May. Nonetheless, the bottom line remains that NHS are at multi year lows. Builder inventory has been rising, with home builders offering sharper discounts. With mortgage rates having soared back up, housing activity had slowed down once again. At the same time, more sellers are returning to the EHS market and increased inventory listing is expected to bring some balance back to the US Residential market which had been favoring the sellers for most of the years post the pandemic. As rates decline further, activity is expected to gradually pick up in the real estate market. However, till that happens, the environment remains tough for new home builders with activity in the NHS remaining low and inventory piling up. Builder confidence also remains at multi year lows. The median home price was US$401K. The SA adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 51K which represents approx. 9.8 months supply at the current rate.  

25th Jun 2025

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of May at about 623K – down 13.7% from the previous month’s figure of 722K. The print was substantially lower than consensus expectations of 694K. Monthly new home sales prints tend to be very volatile with a low degree of confidence and subject to revisions. NHS had sharply risen by 10% the previous month and has fallen by an almost equal percentage this month. Nonetheless, the bottomline remains that NHS are at multi year lows. Builder inventory has been rising, with home builders offering sharper discounts. With mortgage rates having soared back up, housing activity had slowed down once again. At the same time, more sellers are returning to the EHS market and increased inventory listing is expected to bring some balance back to the US Residential market which had been in the sellers favour for most of the years post the pandemic. As rates decline further, activity is expected to gradually pick up in the real estate market. However, till that happens, the environment remains tough for new home builders with activity in the NHS remaining low and inventory piling up. Builder confidence also remains at multi year lows. The median home price was US$426K. The SA adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 507K which represents approx. 9.8 months supply at the current rate.  

23rd May 2025

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of April at about 743K – up 10.9% from the previous month’s figure of 670K. The print was substantially higher than consensus expectations of 694K. Increasing builder inventory has resulted in home builders offering sharper discounts. The latest month’s data showed new home sales rose to a 3 year high. However, New home sales data tends to be volatile month to month. Hence, it is tough to read too much into this month’s spike.  We saw a sharp increase in NHS for December and then a sharp drop for January. February was relatively flat and then now a sharp jump again in March. Moreover, February and March data were revised substantially downwards as well. However, in summary, New Home Sales remain at some of the lowest levels in recent years. With mortgage rates having soared back up, housing activity had slowed down once again. At the same time, more sellers are returning to the EHS market and increased inventory listing is expected to bring some balance back to the US Residential market which had been in the sellers favour for most of the years post the pandemic. As rates decline further, activity is expected to gradually pick up in the real estate market. However, till that happens, the environment remains tough for new home builders with activity in the NHS remaining low and inventory piling up. The median home price was US$407.2K. The SA adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 504K which represents approx. 8.1 months supply at the current rate. Completed inventory at the new home builders has been rising. New housing starts had fallen in the middle of 2024 but are back up at fairly resilient levels indicating continued construction of new homes.   

23rd Apr 2025

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of March at about 724K – up 7.4% from the previous month’s figure of 674K. The print was substantially higher than consensus expectations of 684K. New home sales data tends to be volatile month to month. We saw a sharp increase in NHS for December and then a sharp drop for January. February was relatively flat and then now a sharp jump again in March. Nonetheless, the latest data is welcome news for new home sales and for home builder stocks. However, the overall bottomline is New Home Sales remain at some of the lowest levels in recent years. With mortgage rates having soared back up in 2H 2024, housing activity had slowed down once again. At the same time, more sellers are returning to the EHS market and increased inventory listing is expected to bring some balance back to the US Residential market which had been in the sellers favour for most of the years post the pandemic. As rates decline further, activity is expected to gradually pick up in the real estate market. However, till that happens, the environment remains tough for new home builders with activity in the NHS remaining low and inventory piling up. The median home price was US$403.6K. The SA adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 503K which represents approx. 8.3 months supply at the current rate. Completed inventory at the new home builders has been rising. New housing starts had fallen in the middle of 2024 but are back up at fairly resilient levels indicating continued construction of new homes.   

25th Mar 2025

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of February at about 676K – up 1.8% from the previous month’s figure of 664K. The print was slightly lower than consensus expectations of 682K. New home sales data tends to be volatile month to month. We saw a sharp increase in NHS for December and then a sharp drop for January. The bottomline is New Home Sales remain at some of the lowest levels in recent years. With mortgage rates having soared back up in 2H 2024, housing activity had slowed down once again. At the same time, more sellers are returning to the EHS market and increased inventory listing is expected to bring some balance back to the US Residential market which had been in the sellers favour for most of the years post the pandemic. As rates decline further, activity is expected to gradually pick up in the real estate market. However, till that happens, the environment remains tough for new home builders with activity in the NHS remaining low and inventory piling up. The median home price was US$414.5K. The SA adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 500K which represents approx. 8.9 months supply at the current rate. Completed inventory at the new home builders has been rising. New housing starts had fallen in the middle of 2024 but are back up at fairly resilient levels indicating continued construction of new homes.   

26th Feb 2025

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of January at about 657K – down 10.5% from the previous month’s figure of 734K. The print was also lower than consensus expectations of 679K. While the latest report shows a large drop in the month of January, the previous month’s figure was revised upwards from 698K to 734K causing the sharp m-o-m drop. Nonetheless, New Home Sales remain at some of the lowest levels in recent years. With mortgage rates having soared back up in 2H 2024, housing activity had slowed down once again. At the same time, more sellers are returning to the EHS market and increased inventory listing is expected to bring some balance back to the US Residential market which had been in the sellers favour for most of the years post the pandemic. As rates decline further, activity is expected to gradually pick up in the real estate market. However, till that happens, the environment remains tough for new home builders with activity in the NHS remaining low and inventory piling up. The median home price increased sharply to US$446K. The SA adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 495K which represents approx. 9.0 months supply at the current rate. Completed inventory is rising and new housing starts remain low, indicating an upcoming reduction in residential construction and consequently construction employment.  

27th Jan 2025

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of December at about 698K – up 3.6% from the previous month’s figure of 674K. While New Home Sales remain at some of the lowest levels in recent years, the recent 4-6 months had shown a marginal improvement in sales volume. New home sales in October and November had been substantially low and we saw a bit of a jump back again in December. Mortgage rates had fallen from recent highs up until mid September when the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points. And new home sales volume had picked up in line with decreases in mortgage rates. Since then, both 10 year yields and mortgage rates have traced back up almost all of the earlier moves. The fall in new home sales in September and October was attributed to a sharp rise in mortgage rates. Although it was also noted that most of the drop in new home sales was in the South which was affected by the recent hurricanes. We accordingly saw some jump back in New Home Sales in the South to a level more consistent with data in the months prior to September. The median home price increased sharply to US$427K. The SA adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of December was 494K which represents approx. 8.5 months supply at the current rate. This, in fact, has been the key story in US residential real estate recently. Completed inventory is rising and new housing starts remain low, indicating an upcoming reduction in residential construction and consequently construction employment. At the same time it is also important to note that New Housing have bounced slightly off their lows in the recent few months.  

23rd Dec 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of November at about 664K – up 5.9% from the previous month’s figure of 627K. While New Home Sales remain at some of the lowest levels in recent years, the recent 4-5 months had shown a marginal improvement in sales volume. However, new home sales in October and November have once again been substantially low. Mortgage rates had fallen from recent highs up until mid September when the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points. And new home sales volume had picked up in line with decreases in mortgage rates. Since then, both 10 year yields and mortgage rates have traced back up almost all of the earlier moves. The fall in new home sales in the last 2 months can be attributed to a sharp rise in mortgage rates. Although it is equally important to note that most of the drop in new home sales was in the South which was affected by the recent hurricanes. The median home price decreased sharply to US$402.6K. The SA adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 490K which represents approx. 9 months supply at the current rate. This, in fact, has been the key story in US residential real estate recently. Completed inventory is rising and new housing starts remain low, indicating an upcoming reduction in residential construction and consequently construction employment.  

26th Nov 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of October at about 610K – a sharp fall of 17% from the previous month’s figure of 738K. While New Home Sales remain at some of the lowest levels in recent years, the recent 4-5 months had shown a marginal improvement in sales volume. Mortgage rates had fallen from recent highs up until mid September when the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points. And new home sales volume had picked up in line with decreases in mortgage rates. Since then, both 10 year yields and mortgage rates have traced back up almost all of the earlier moves. The latest October figure is a bit of a shocker. Although it is equally important to note that most of the drop in new home sales was in the South which was affected by the recent hurricanes. New Home Sales increased 1.4% in the Mid West and a whopping 53% in the North East. Hence it might be too soon to read into the sharp October decline. The median home price increased to US$437K. The SA adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 481K which represents approx. 9 months supply at the current rate. This, in fact, has been the key story in US residential real estate recently. Completed inventory is rising and new housing starts remain low, indicating an upcoming reduction in residential construction and consequently construction employment.  

24th Oct 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of September at about 738K. While New Home Sales remain at some of the lowest levels in recent years, the past couple of months has shown a marginal improvement in sales volume. Mortgage rates had fallen from recent highs – atleast up until mid September when the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points. Since then, both 10 year yields and mortgage rates have traced back up some of the earlier move. However, as mortgage rates eventually trend lower and with steady home prices, activity in the new homes market is expected to gradually inch back up. The median new home price increased a bit to US$ 426K from US$420K last month. The SA adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 470K which represents a 7.6 months supply at the current sales rate. This is the key story of the US new homes market – a glut of newly built homes. But as sales climb steadily up, the new home inventory is expected to be gradually taken up.   

25th Sep 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of August at about 716K. While this number was lower than the revised July figure of 751K, it was nonetheless better than consensus expectations of 699K. New Home Sales have generally reduced since hitting a peak in mid 2023, but with falling mortgage rates and steady prices, activity in the new homes market has generally trended upwards in the second half of 2024. The median new home price also declined to US$ 420.6K from US$429K last month. The SA adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 467K which represents a 7.8 months supply at the current sales rate. This is the key story of the US new homes market – a glut of newly built homes. Hopefully, as sales climb steadily up, the new home inventory will be gradually taken up.   

23rd Aug 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of July at about 739K. New Home Sales jumped sharply (10.6%) above the revised June level of 668K. New Home Sales have generally reduced since hitting a peak in mid 2023. Annual sales have fluctuated between 600K-700K, slightly lower than the averages seen right before the pandemic. The latest data release shows a sharp bounce back. Mortgage rates have also come off in recent weeks. However, the New Home Sales data point tends to be volatile and hence needs to be observed over a few months. The median new home price also increased to US$ 429.8K from US$417K last month. Nonetheless, it is also substantially lower than the US$500K peak seen a couple of year back.    

24th Jul 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of June at about 617K. That is marginally below the revised May print of 621K. New Home Sales have generally reduced since hitting a peak in mid 2023. Annual sales have fluctuated between 600K-700K, slightly lower than the averages seen right before the pandemic. The key point to keep track of is the increasing inventory of new homes in the US. The median new home price was US$ 417K – which is now substantially lower than the US$500K peak seen a couple of year back.    

26th Jun 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of May at about 619K. That is a 79K decrease from the revised April print of 698K. New Home Sales numbers tend to be quite volatile and are often revised in subsequent months. For instance, the April New Home sales number was revised substantially higher from 634K to 698K. Nonetheless, half way into 2024, it is very clear that new home sales are on a declining trend. The current level is not too far from the 2023 November low of 590K. The re-calibration of rate cut expectations has had a dampening impact on the US Residential Market. Moreover un-affordability still remains an issue. Also, one of the most notable events in the US residential real estate market this year, has been the steady increase in inventory or home for sale in the Existing Homes market. That has created additional competition for new home builders. The inventory of new homes now stands at 481K or 9.3 months supply at the current sales rate. While inventory did not change much on a m-o-m basis, the current inventory level is much higher compared to pre-pandemic levels, raising fears of an inventory glut. Home construction activity has remained robust in 2024. But we are starting to see some signs in softness there in recent weeks / months. The median new home price was US$ 417K – which is now substantially lower than the US$500K peak seen a couple of year back.    

23rd May 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of April at about 634K. That is a 31K decrease from the revised March print of 665K. New Home Sales numbers tend to be quite volatile and are often revised in subsequent months. While the New Home Sales number has fallen from the previous month, it still stands above the 2023 November low of 590K – though by not a large margin. As interest rates gained a bit of steam this year and mortgage rates spiked up again, we saw a commensurate impact on home buying in the new residential sales market. Moreover, one of the most notable events in the US residential real estate market this year, has been the steady increase in inventory or home for sale in the Existing Homes market. That has created additional competition for new home sellers. The inventory of new homes now stands at 480K or 9.1 months supply at the current sales rate. If you take a longer period view, inventory of new homes is substantially above average levels of the pre-pandemic decade. The sharp build up in inventory in 2021 and 2022 was sufficiently absorbed by new home buyers in 2023 even though mortgage rates had spiked. The inventory is building up again. Home sales construction seems to be robust which will further add to inventory. If mortgage rates stay high, it is likely that we will continue to see low levels of transactions and increasing levels of inventory in the new homes market.The median new home price was US$ 433K – which is now substantially lower than the US$500K peak seen a couple of year back.    

23rd Apr 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of March at about 693K. That is a 56K increase from the revised February print of 637K. New Home Sales numbers tend to be quite volatile and are often revised in subsequent months. Just to recap – even though New Home Sales of Single Family Houses had fallen from the highs of 2020 and 2021, they had held up relatively well in the full year of 2023. The “rate-lock’ phenomenon in the Existing Home Sales market drove buyers towards the new homes market and that had ensured continued activity in this segment. New home sales came off sharply in Q3 2023 as mortgage rates hit a high of 8%. This initial print of 590K in November 2023 matched the lows seen in mid-2022 when the initial rate hike shock started affecting markets as well as the lows seen during the covid pandemic in 2020. However, as mortgage rates came down starting November 2023, we saw a slight uptick in new home sales once again. New Home Sales data now stands fairly above the Q3 2023 lows. The NAHB Home Builder confidence index also increased substantially in the start of 2024. Home building and construction continues to be robust as well. However with more inventory coming into the Existing Home Sales market, we are likely to see increased competition for new homes. The median new home price was US$ 430K – which is now substantially lower than the US$500K peak seen a couple of year back. Inventory stood at 477K which represents a supply of 8.3 months at the current sales rate.   

25th Mar 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of February was mostly unchanged from the previous month at about 662K. New Home Sales numbers tend to be quite volatile and are often revised in subsequent months. We saw some downward revisions to new home sales during the last few months of 2023. The February Home Sales count was slightly below consensus expectations of 675K. Just to recap – even though New Home Sales of Single Family Houses had fallen from the highs of 2020 and 2021, they had held up relatively well in the full year of 2023. The “rate-lock’ phenomenon in the Existing Home Sales market drove buyers towards the new homes market and that had ensured continued activity in this segment. New home sales came off sharply in Q3 2023 as mortgage rates hit a high of 8%. This initial print of 590K in November 2023 matched the lows seen in mid-2022 when the initial rate hike shock started affecting markets as well as the lows seen during the covid pandemic in 2020. However, as mortgage rates came down starting November 2023, we saw a slight uptick in new home sales once again. The NAHB Home Builder confidence index has been surging in recent months. Home building activity continues to be robust as well. However, one of the key developments in the US Residential Real Estate market has been the recent uptick in total inventory of existing homes. Existing home sellers seem to be abandoning the rate lock phenomenon and adjusting to the new normal of higher mortgage rates. As inventory in the existing home market increases, we are likely to see more competition on new home sales. The median new home price was US$ 400K – which is now substantially lower than the US$500K peak seen a couple of year back. Inventory stood at 8.4 months at the current sales rate.   

26th Feb 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of January rose modestly from 651K in December to 661K in January. New Home Sales numbers tend to be quite volatile and are often revised in subsequent months. We saw some downward revisions to new home sales during the last few months of 2023. The slight increase for January is hence on the back of some downward revisions in the new home sales numbers. The print also came in slightly below consensus expectations of 680K. Just to recap – even though New Home Sales of Single Family Houses had fallen from the highs of 2020 and 2021, they had held up relatively well in the full year of 2023. The “rate-lock’ phenomenon in the Existing Home Sales market drove buyers towards the new homes market and that had ensured continued activity in this segment. New home sales came off sharply in Q3 2023 as mortgage rates hit a high of 8%. This initial print of 590K in November 2023 matched the lows seen in mid-2022 when the initial rate hike shock started affecting markets as well as the lows seen during the covid pandemic in 2020. However, it is key to note that rates have generally come off massively over the past 2-3 months. The NAHB Home Builder confidence index has also posted a slight increases in recent months. Home building activity continued to be robust as well. The median new home price was US$ 420K. Inventory stood at 8.3 months at the current sales rate.   

25th Jan 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of December rose modestly from 615K in November to 664K in December. Just to recap – even though New Home Sales of Single Family Houses had fallen from the highs of 2020 and 2021, they had held up relatively well in the full year of 2023. The “rate-lock’ phenomenon in the Existing Home Sales market drove buyers towards the new homes market and that had ensured continued activity in this segment. New home sales came off sharply in Q3 2023 as mortgage rates hit a high of 8%. This initial print of 590K in November 2023 matched the lows seen in mid-2022 when the initial rate hike shock started affecting markets as well as the lows seen during the covid pandemic in 2020. However, November was revised up to 615K and this latest December print has also moved the figure up to 664K. Rates have generally come off massively over the past 2-3 months. The NAHB Home Builder confidence index has also posted a slight increases in recent months. Home building activity continued to be robust as well. The median new home price was US$ 413K. Inventory stood at 8.2 months at the current sales rate.   

22nd Dec 2023

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Census Bureau showed New Home Sales for the month of November fall significantly from 672K in October to 590K in November. This print matches the lows seen in mid-2022 when the initial rate hike shock started affecting markets as well as the lows seen during the covid pandemic in 2020. This print was also substantially below consensus expectations of 695K which makes it even more surprising. Rates have generally come off massively over the past 2 months. Hence the consensus expectations was that the recent drop in new home sales has bottomed and we would likely see more new residential sales. It might be too early though, to read too much into this precipitously low print. The NAHB Home Builder confidence index had also posted a slight increase in December after having fallen for 4 continuous months. However, if new home sales remain soft even with mortgage rates coming down, it would be a sign of trouble for home builders. On the other hand, the median new home price increased sharply from $415K to $435K. Inventory stood at 9.2 months at the current sales rate.   

27th Nov 2023

Key takeaway: New Home Sales had been rising through the first half of 2023. However, with mortgage rates firmly above 7.0%, these high interest rates are making a significant dent in new home buying demand. Over the past few months, we have seen weakness return to the US new home construction industry. Home Builders sentiment has fallen continuously for the past few months. Sales of new single family houses has also plateaued over the past few months. September had recorded a sharp jump of 12.3% to a SA annual rate of 759K units. However, October registered a sharp drop. Sales of new single family houses in October were at a SA annual rate of 679K. Moreover, even September was revised lower to 719K. While new home sales have levelled off in the past few months, it is also important to remember that 10 year yields have come off sharply in November. Hence we might likely see a jump back in NHS in the subsequent couple of months. The median new home price fell to $409K. While this is lower than the $497K high of October 2022, it is still significantly above pre-pandemic levels of around $320K.   

25th Oct 2023

Key takeaway: New Home Sales had been rising through the first half of 2023. However, with mortgage rates firmly above 7.0%, these high interest rates are making a significant dent in new home buying demand. Over the past few weeks or couple of months, we have seen weakness return to the US new home construction industry. Home Builders sentiment has fallen for 3 months in a row. However, New Home Sales for September recorded a sharp jump of 12.3% to a SA annual rate of 759K units. This is the highest level seen since February 2022. Given the other recent negative data points it will be key to watch if this level of home sales is sustained in the coming months. The other key point to note is that builders have had to offer steeper discounts to incentivize new buyers to come onboard. The median new home price fell to $418K – almost 12% below the level last year.  

  • New Home Sales increased to a SA annual rate of 759K homes in Sep (Expectations : 680K).

26th Sep 2023

Key takeaway: New Home Sales had been rising through the first half of 2023. However, with mortgage rates firmly above 7.0%, these high interest rates are making a significant dent in new home buying demand. Over the past few weeks or couple of months, we have seen weakness return to the US new home construction industry. Home Builders sentiment has fallen for 3 months in a row. And now, the latest New Home Sales release shows NHS fell a whopping 8% from last month to a SA annualized rate of 675K in August. While new home sales statistics tend to be volatile and are often revised, the latest release read together with other data points in the US residential sector, like home builder confidence, point to a peak in the mini rally that we have seen in 2023. The median sales price of a new home edged lower to $430,300 in August. Despite the decline, that’s still well above pre-pandemic levels. Lastly, inventory also continued to remain tight at 7.8 months of supply.  

  • New Home Sales decreased to a SA annual rate of 675K homes in Aug (Expectations : 700K).

23rd Aug 2023

Key takeaway: New Home Sales have been ripping higher since the low levels reached in mid 2022. New Home Sales in July climbed 4.4% from the previous month to a SA annualized rate of 714K units. After a number of months of continuous increases, the new home sales number had moderated a bit in June. However, barring that exception, NHS climbed back up again in July. The July New Home Sales figure is a whopping 32% above the same month last year. Little surprise then that the home builders confidence index continues to be substantially higher than last year. The second interesting point to note in the latest NHS release was the sharp increase in median sales price from $416K to $437K. Lastly, the SA estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 437K which represents a supply of 7.3 months at the current sales rate (which once again indicates fairly tight supply even in the new homes market).  

  • New Home Sales increased to a SA annual rate of 714K homes in Jul (Expectations : 705K).

26th Jul 2023

Key takeaway: There were a few points to note about the latest June New Home Sales report from the Census Bureau. Firstly, New Home Sales have been ripping higher since the low levels reached in mid 2022. The last few months had especially seen a substantial rise in new home sales. That trend moderated a bit in June. New Home Sales for June declined 2.5% m-o-m on a SA annualized rate basis to 697K. Moreover the May figure was also revised down substantially from 763K to 715K. Nonetheless, even with the revised numbers, the June New Home Sales figure is a whopping 24% above the same month last year. Little surprise then that the home builders confidence index is substantially higher than last year. Secondly, similar to the last month, sales of new homes that have not started construction yet, have been growing faster than those under construction or completed homes. The median sales price has now been holding steady in 2023 but still lower than the high prices seen in 2021 and 2022 ($415K in June 2023). The SA estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 432K which represents a supply of 7.4 months at the current sales rate (which once again indicates fairly tight supply even in the new homes market).  

  • New Home Sales decreased to a SA annual rate of 697K homes in Jun (Expectations : 725K).

27th Jun 2023

Key takeaway: New Home Sales jumped a massive 12.2% m-o-m in May to a SA annualized rate of 763K. That is a full 230K above the low hit is 2H 2022. The shortage of sellers in the existing homes market continues to boost sales numbers in the new construction space. It is little surprise that the New Home Builders confidence index (NAHB Index) is above the key level of 50 and home builder stocks are on an absolute rip higher. In fact another key point to note in the latest New Home Sales report was that a large proportion of the increase came from homes that have not started construction yet. The median sales price though has continued to moderate compared to the massive price increases seen in 2021 and 2022 ($416K in May). The SA estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 428K which represents a supply of 6.7 months at the current sales rate (which once again indicated fairly tight supply even in the new homes market).  

  • New Home Sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 763K homes in May (Expectations – 675K).

23 May 2023

Key takeaway: In a continuation of the upward trend that started since Sep/Oct of last year, New Home Sales grew 4.1% in April to a SA annual rate of 683K units. However, like we have repeatedly mentioned, this data point tends to be quite volatile. March New Home Sales were revised downward from the previous estimate of 683K to a revised estimate of 656K. Nonetheless, it does not change the key takeaway that new home sales are having a strong run since the start of 2023. Sentiment amongst the home builders remains strong as sellers withdraw from the existing home sales market driving resilient new home buyers towards new constructions. The median sales price though has continued to moderate compared to the massive price increases seen in 2021 and 2022 ($420K in April). The SA estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 433K which represents a supply of 7.6 months at the current sales rate.  

  • New Home Sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 683K homes in Apr (Expectations – 663K).

25th Apr 2023

Key takeaway: New Home Sales data tends to be very volatile and the 90% confidence level ranges for this data point tend to be wide. Nonetheless it is unmistakable that new home sales have been on an upward trend since Sep/Oct of last year. New Home Sales had posted a monthly gain for the fifth time in a row in Feb 2023 (data released in March). However, that data point was revised lower from 640K to 623K. For March though, NHS were once again up on a m-o-m basis, increasing 9.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 683K from 623K in Feb. The overall rise in the residential real estate sector activity can also be evidenced through other data points. NAHB home builder confidence index similarly has also increased 4 months in a row. Home builder stocks have been outperforming even the broader market YTD. Even the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indices released earlier today showed a monthly gain for residential real estate nationally as well as across most cities tracked through the Index. This solid rise in residential real estate activity and accompanying house price increases (or at least the pause in downward prices) will be a concern from an inflation perspective for the Fed. . 

Supply of new homes fell to 7.6 months which was lower than the 8-9 months supply seen at the start of the year. And the median home price increased to $449.8K    

  • New Home Sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 683K homes in Mar (Expectations – 630K).

23rd Mar 2023

Key takeaway: New Home Sales data tends to be very volatile and the 90% confidence level ranges for this data tend to be wide. Nonetheless it is unmistakable that new home sales have been on an upward trend since Sep/Oct of last year. For a fifth month in a row now, New Home Sales have posted a monthly gain. NHS increased in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640K from 633K in January. Nonetheless, it is also key to note that January data was revised down from 670K to 633K. The overall rise in the real estate sector activity can also be evidenced through other data points. Existing Home Sales for February have also posted a sizeable gain from January. NAHB home builder confidence index similarly has also increased 3 months in a row. Home builder stocks have been outperforming even the broader market YTD. While the increase in mortgage rates seen in the 2nd half of February might have some cooling effect seen in subsequent releases, the solid rise in residential real estate activity will be a concern from an inflation perspective for the Fed. . 

Supply of new homes fell to 8.2 months. And the median home price increased to $438.2K    

  • New Home Sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640K homes in Feb (Expectations – 650K).

24th Feb 2023

Key takeaway: New Home Sales data tends to be very volatile and the 90% confidence level ranges for this data tend to be wide. Nonetheless it is unmistakable that new home sales have been on an upward trend since Sep/Oct of last year. For a fourth month in a row, New Home Sales have posted a monthly gain. NHS increased in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670K from 625K in December. Just to recap – even mortgage rates had reduced to close to 6% in January from over 7% end of last year. As existing home owners increasingly reduce listings in the real estate market given sky high mortgage rates, resulting in a relatively low inventory of existing homes, it is little surprise that there is more activity in the new homes market. While January NHS increased again, the last 2 weeks of February have once again been disappointing for real estate data with mortgage rates back up above 6.5%, new residential construction falling and continued decline in Existing Home Sales. 

Supply of new homes fell to 7.9 months. And the median home price decreased to $427.5K (the first fall on a y-o-y basis since August 2020.)    

  • New Home Sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670K homes in Jan (Expectations – 620K).

26th Jan 2023

Key takeaway: For a third month in a row, New Home Sales have posted a monthly gain. NHS increased in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616K from 602K in November. A point to remember is that this number indeed tends to be very volatile. For instance, the November figure was revised lower from 640K to 602K. Nonetheless, similar to other real estate indicators like mortgage rates, existing home sales, NAHB index data, pending home sales, NHS has seen a bit of an uptick (or at least a pause to the rapid deterioration that was a feature for much of the last year). While private measures of the real estate market have been pointing to a price decline both in house prices and rent, other indicators like shelter inflation in the CPI and Census data have yet to show meaningful, broad-based, across-the-country price declines. While the NHS indicator might not mean much on a standalone basis, collectively the overall easing of conditions in the economy will keep the Fed on its toes for inflation alert! 

Supply of new homes remained around the same level – at 9.0 months. And the median home price also remained at around the same level at $442K.    

  • New Home Sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616K homes in Dec (Expectations – 617K).

23rd Dec 2022

Key takeaway: For a second month in a row, New Home Sales have surprised to the upside. NHS increased in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640K from 605K in October. While this number indeed tends to be very volatile, a headline increase is not good news in an environment where the Fed is desperately looking for signs of inflation easing. It is key to note though that the Census Bureau does not make adjustments to this headline number to account for cancellations of home purchases. And cancellations are significantly higher compared to the same period last year. By some accounts, almost one in two new home sales contracts are being cancelled! Secondly, past months data has consistently been revised lower. 

Supply of new homes remained around the same level – at 8.6 months. And the median home price also remained at around the same level at $471K.    

  • New Home Sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640K homes in Nov (Expectations – 600K).

23rd Nov 2022

Just as further background, New Home Sales, on a m-o-m basis increased in August, fell back in September and increased back again in October. Now, new home sales tends to be a volatile number. Also, new home sales is roughly only 10% of the US home market. Existing Home Sales, which is the balance 90% of the market, and Pending Home Sales, which is a more timely indicator, are more important indicators to assess the housing market. Nevertheless, given the overall stubborn inflationary environment of the past 12 months, a strong New Home Sales print is negative news overall. Also remember mortgage rates were the highest in October! To make things worse, median sales price actually increased m-o-m, from US$455,700 to US$493,000. Admittedly, this was because of a larger proportion of homes sold in the higher bucket of $500K to $749K. Nonetheless, visually an increasing median sales price is simply unacceptable given the lag effects on inflation. New home inventory continues to be about the highest since the 2008 crisis period – both from a total number perspective (470K) as well as number of months supply (8.9 months). Given a deteriorating housing market and the large contribution that the housing sector plays in the US economy, it is a matter of time before it starts to reflect in unemployment and job creation / opening data.    

  • New Home Sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 632K homes in Oct (Expectations – 570K).

 

26th Oct 2022

After an unexpected increase in August, New Home Sales were back down in September – falling to an annualised rate of 603K from 677K in August (minus 10.9%). Mortgage rates had taken a breather in August and were back up in September. In fact rates have spiked even higher in October – an indication of things to come. New home inventory is now the highest since the 2008 crisis period – both from a total number perspective (462K) as well as number of months supply (9.2 months). Given a deteriorating housing market and the large contribution that the housing sector plays in the US economy, it is a matter of time before it starts to reflect in unemployment and job creation / opening data. However, the most important data point in this NHS release was the increase in median home price from $435K in Aug to $470K in September. Remember shelter is the most important component of CPI!   

  • New Home Sales decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 603K homes in Sep (Expectations – 585K).

27th Sep 2022

New home sales unexpectedly surged in August to an annualised rate of 685K. By way of comparison, consensus estimate was 500K! But this does not indicate a bullish housing market at all. In fact, median sales price fell from $466K in July to $436K in August – a drop of about 6% ! Home builders are now more willing to drop prices to clear inventory given the lower demand resulting from higher mortgage rates. In fact the S&P Global Case Shiller Housing Index released today showed a fall of 0.4% m-o-m in July – the first such monthly decline since 2012!  

  • New Home Sales surged to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 686K homes in Aug (Expectations – 500K).

23rd Aug 2022

July new home sales have absolutely tanked as high mortgage rates take their toll! Annualized new home sales now stands at 511K – a multi-year low. Approx. 13% lower on a m-o-m basis. But once again key to remember that this data point tends to be notoriously volatile. The average relative standard errors are significantly large. Nonetheless, the sharp slowdown in the housing market is unmistakable. 

  • New Home Sales declined to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 511K homes in July.

26th Jul 2022

After an unexpected pick up in May, the downward trend of new home sales resumed again in June. An annualized rate of 590K homes, new home sales are close to a 5 year low. The key point really to watch here is how low does it go? 

  • New Home Sales declined to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590K homes in June.

24th Jun 2022

Sales of new homes jumped unexpectedly 10% in May reversing a downward trend since the last 4 months. Annualized rate of 696K homes. The key point to remember is that this data tends to be notoriously volatile. The average relative standard errors are significantly large. 

  • New Home Sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 696K homes in May.

New Home Sales measures the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month. New home sales typically account for about 10% of the total market. Data is released around the 25th of each month for the previous month.

Census.gov