US Macro Updates

28th Jul 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index is widely regarded as the gold standard for tracking US residential property values, drawing on a repeat-sales methodology that compares prices of the same homes over time to produce a reliable, apples-to-apples measure of appreciation. Home prices remain closely intertwined with mortgage rates, as elevated borrowing costs suppress affordability by raising monthly payments, which in turn can cool demand and put downward pressure on prices, while any easing of rates tends to reignite buyer competition. Over the past two years, the national index has demonstrated surprising resilience, absorbing the shock of the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle and continuing to grind higher as a chronic shortage of available inventory kept supply constrained even as demand softened. The May 2026 reading of 335.1, reflecting a 0.64% monthly gain, suggests that upward momentum has been sustained into the summer selling season, a period that historically draws elevated transaction volumes. For existing homeowners, rising prices translate directly into expanded home equity, which supports consumer confidence and can be tapped through refinancing or home equity lines of credit to fund spending. At the macroeconomic level, persistent house price appreciation contributes to broader wealth effects but also deepens the affordability challenge for prospective first-time buyers, widening the gap between renters and owners. Policymakers and market participants will be watching subsequent releases closely to determine whether this momentum reflects durable demand or a temporary seasonal lift.

Case-Shiller HPI (National) increased 0.64% in May to 335.1.

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3rd Jul 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index is widely regarded as the gold standard for tracking US residential real estate values, drawing on a repeat-sales methodology that measures price changes on the same properties over time to filter out compositional distortions. Home prices remain deeply intertwined with mortgage rates, as elevated borrowing costs compress affordability by raising monthly payments even when nominal price growth appears modest, creating a squeeze that has weighed on both buyer demand and transaction volumes over the past two years. Through much of 2024 and into 2025, the national index oscillated between resilience and softness, as persistently high rates held back first-time buyers while limited inventory continued to underpin prices in many markets. Heading into 2026, the index has maintained an upward bias, reflecting a structural shortage of housing supply that has prevented the kind of broad price correction some analysts had anticipated when the Federal Reserve began its tightening cycle. The April reading of 332.68, representing a 0.77% monthly gain, suggests that demand is holding firm entering the spring selling season, a period that historically concentrates a disproportionate share of annual transaction activity. Rising home values bolster household balance sheets and support consumer confidence through the wealth effect, but they simultaneously deepen affordability challenges for prospective buyers who have not yet accumulated equity. For the broader economy, sustained house price appreciation signals ongoing strength in one of the largest asset classes held by American households, though it also keeps shelter-cost pressures elevated within inflation measures.

Case-Shiller HPI (National) increased 0.77% in Apr to 332.68.

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26th May 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index is widely regarded as the gold standard for tracking US residential real estate values, drawing on a repeat-sales methodology that measures price changes on the same properties over time to provide a reliable and consistent picture of the housing market. Home prices are deeply intertwined with mortgage rates, as elevated borrowing costs reduce purchasing power and can suppress demand, while any easing in rates tends to reignite buyer activity and put upward pressure on prices. Over the past one to two years, the national index has demonstrated remarkable resilience, continuing to push higher despite mortgage rates remaining at historically elevated levels relative to the post-2008 era, driven in large part by persistently tight inventory as existing homeowners with locked-in low-rate mortgages have been reluctant to sell. The March 2026 reading of 329.94 represents another monthly advance, with the 0.72% month-over-month gain signalling that demand continues to outpace supply in much of the country as the spring selling season gets underway. For households, rising home values translate directly into growing equity wealth, which can support consumer confidence and spending through the wealth effect. However, sustained price appreciation at this pace compounds affordability challenges for prospective buyers, particularly first-time purchasers who lack existing equity to deploy. Policymakers and market participants will be watching closely to see whether this momentum holds through the summer or whether affordability constraints begin to exert more meaningful drag on transaction volumes and price growth.

Case-Shiller HPI (National) increased 0.72% in Mar to 329.94.

Case-Shiller HPI (National) – March 2026: +0.72% (329.94)

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28th Apr 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index is widely regarded as the gold standard for tracking US residential real estate values, drawing on a repeat-sales methodology that measures price changes on the same properties over time to eliminate compositional distortions. Home prices remain closely intertwined with mortgage rates, as elevated borrowing costs compress purchasing power, cool demand, and historically act as a brake on price appreciation, while any easing in rates tends to reignite buyer competition and push values higher. Over the past 12 to 24 months, national home prices have demonstrated a degree of resilience that surprised many forecasters, holding firm and in many periods advancing despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle, driven by persistently lean housing inventory and robust underlying demand from millennials in their prime homebuying years. The February 2026 reading of 327.31 represents a modest but meaningful 0.29% month-over-month gain, suggesting that upward price pressure has not yet been fully extinguished even as affordability remains stretched by historical standards. For existing homeowners, continued price appreciation translates into stronger balance sheets and growing home equity, which supports consumer confidence and can feed through into broader household spending. At the same time, elevated prices compound the affordability challenge for prospective first-time buyers, widening the wealth gap between owners and renters and keeping homeownership out of reach for a significant share of the population. From a macroeconomic perspective, sustained house price growth contributes positively to household net worth and residential investment, but it also keeps shelter inflation elevated and complicates the Federal Reserve’s path toward its inflation objectives.

Case-Shiller HPI (National) increased 0.29% in Feb to 327.31.

Case-Shiller HPI (National) – February 2026: +0.29% (327.31)

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27th Mar 2026

Key takeaway: The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index for January 2026, released on March 31, pointed to a continued cooling in US home prices. The national index posted a 0.9% annual gain, down from 1.1% in December, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites also eased to 1.7% and 1.2% respectively. Critically, for the eighth consecutive month, inflation outpaced home price appreciation — with CPI running 1.5 percentage points above the national index’s gain — leaving real home values modestly lower year over year. The data marks the weakest start to a year for home prices since the early 2010s, with the national index having risen 2.2% in the first half of 2025 before falling 1.3% in the second half, compressing annual gains to under 1%. The geographic divide remains stark: New York led with a 4.9% annual gain, followed by Chicago at 4.6% and Cleveland at 3.6%, while Tampa extended its decline to -2.5%, with Denver and Phoenix also in negative territory. Prospective buyers are increasingly asking for concessions from sellers, pointing to a more balanced negotiating environment, though affordability remains a major constraint with 30-year mortgage rates still near 6%. 

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA decreased 0.1% in Jan 2026

24th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: Unlike past economic cycles, the residential real estate sector in the US has remained remarkably resilient this time around. However, even though prices are still rising on a y-o-y basis, the pace of increase has sharply deteriorated over the past 12-18 months. Also while this is true at a national level, there are a number of sharp regional variances across the country. Significant variation in various regions and cities shows that the pace of appreciation has either significantly declined or prices has outright declined in many cities and regions. Monthly prints of the S&P Case Shiller Index at the national level for most of 2024 were lower than the corresponding prints in 2023. However, we also saw a reversal of trend in the months of November 24, December 24 and January 25 when the monthly price appreciation in the Index was higher than the same month one year ago. However, once again through most of 2025, monthly price index increases were lower than the corresponding figures last year. Hence, on a y-o-y increase basis, the house price index has been declining since reaching a high of 21% in March 2022 and then again rising to a high of 6% in early 2024. The y-o-y increase in the national index now stands at 1.3%. The latest release for the month of December 2025 showed the national price index declined by 0.3% m-o-m compared to 0.1% in December 2024. Inventory in the US residential market is gradually increasing and prices are expected to hold steady if not mildly fall as the market comes more into balance. 

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA decreased 0.3% in Dec 2025

27th Jan 2026

Key takeaway: Unlike past economic cycles, the residential real estate sector in the US has remained remarkably resilient this time around. However, even though prices are still rising on a y-o-y basis, the pace of increase has sharply deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Also while this is true at a national level, there are a number of sharp regional variances across the country. Significant variation in various regions and cities shows that the pace of appreciation has either significantly declined or prices has outright declined in many cities and regions. Monthly prints of the S&P Case Shiller Index at the national level for most of 2024 were lower than the corresponding prints in 2023. However, we also saw a reversal of trend in the months of November 24, December 24 and January 25 when the monthly price appreciation in the Index was higher than the same month one year ago. However, once again through most of 2025, monthly price index increases were lower than the corresponding figures last year. Hence, on a y-o-y increase basis, the house price index has been declining since reaching a high of 21% in March 2022 and then again rising to a high of 6% in early 2024. The y-o-y increase in the national index now stands at 1.4%. The latest release for the month of November showed the national price index declined the same in percentage points (o.1%) as the same month previous year. Inventory in the US residential market is gradually increasing and prices are expected to hold steady if not mildly fall as the market comes more into balance. 

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA decreased 0.1% in Nov 2025

25th Dec 2025

Key takeaway: Unlike past economic cycles, the residential real estate sector in the US has remained remarkably resilient this time around. However, even though prices are still rising on a y-o-y basis, the pace of increase has sharply deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Also while this is true at a national level, there are a number of sharp regional variances across the country. Significant variation in various regions and cities shows that the pace of appreciation has either significantly declined or prices has outright declined in many cities and regions. Monthly prints of the S&P Case Shiller Index at the national level for most of 2024 were lower than the corresponding prints in 2023. However, we also saw a reversal of trend in the months of November 24, December 24 and January 25 when the monthly price appreciation in the Index was higher than the same month one year ago. However, through most of 2025, monthly price index increases were lower than the corresponding figures last year. Hence, on a y-o-y increase basis, the house price index has been declining since reaching a high of 21% in March 2022 and then again rising to a high of 6% in early 2024. The y-o-y increase in the national index now stands at 1.4%. The latest release for the month of October showed the national price index declined the same in percentage points (o.2%) as the same month previous year. Inventory in the US residential market is gradually increasing and prices are expected to hold steady if not mildly fall as the market comes more into balance. 

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA decreased 0.2% in Oct 2025

25th Nov 2025

Key takeaway: Unlike past economic cycles, the residential real estate sector in the US has remained remarkably resilient this time around. However, even though prices are still rising on a y-o-y basis, the pace of increase has sharply deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Also while this is true at a national level, there are a number of sharp regional variances across the country. Significant variation in various regions and cities shows that the pace of appreciation has either significantly declined or prices has outright declined in many cities and regions. Monthly prints of the S&P Case Shiller Index at the national level for most of 2024 were lower than the corresponding prints in 2023. However, we also saw a reversal of trend in the months of November, December and January when the monthly price appreciation in the Index was higher than the same month one year ago. However, we are back to the trend of monthly price index increases that are lower than the corresponding figures last year. The latest release for the month of September also shows a faster decrease in the national price index compared to the same month previous year. The National Index, on an non seasonally adjusted basis, decreased 0.3% compared to the 0.1% decrease seen in September 2024. Inventory in the US residential market is gradually increasing and prices are expected to hold steady if not mildly fall as the market comes more into balance. 

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA decreased 0.3% in Sep 2025

28th Oct 2025

Key takeaway: Unlike past economic cycles, the residential real estate sector in the US has remained remarkably resilient this time around. However, even though prices are still rising on a y-o-y basis, the pace of increase has sharply deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Also while this is true at a national level, there are a number of sharp regional variances across the country. Significant variation in various regions and cities shows that the pace of appreciation has either significantly declined or prices has outright declined in many cities and regions. Monthly prints of the S&P Case Shiller Index at the national level for most of 2024 were lower than the corresponding prints in 2023. However, we also saw a reversal of trend in the months of November, December and January when the monthly price appreciation in the Index was higher than the same month one year ago. However, we are back to the trend of monthly price index increases that are lower than the corresponding figures last year. The latest release for the month of August also shows a faster decrease in the national price index compared to the same month previous year. The National Index, on an non seasonally adjusted basis, decreased 0.3% compared to the 0.2% decrease seen in August 2024. Inventory in the US residential market is gradually increasing and prices are expected to hold steady if not mildly fall as the market comes more into balance. 

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA decreased 0.3% in Aug 2025

30th Sep 2025

Key takeaway: Unlike past economic cycles, the residential real estate sector in the US has remained remarkably resilient this time around. However, even though prices are still rising on a y-o-y basis, the pace of increase has sharply deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Also while this is true at a national level, there are a number of sharp regional variances across the country. Significant variation in various regions and cities shows that the pace of appreciation has either significantly declined or prices has outright declined in many cities and regions. Monthly prints of the S&P Case Shiller Index at the national level for most of 2024 were lower than the corresponding prints in 2023. However, we also saw a reversal of trend in the months of November, December and January when the monthly price appreciation in the Index was higher than the same month one year ago. However, we are back to the trend of monthly price index increases that are lower than the corresponding figures last year. The latest release for the month of July also shows a slowdown in price appreciation. In fact, the latest data shows the national index declined on a m-o-m basis in July 2025, when it increased same month last year. The National Index, on an non seasonally adjusted basis, decreased 0.16% compared to the 0.1% increase seen in July 2024. Inventory in the US residential market is gradually increasing and prices are expected to hold steady if not mildly fall as the market comes more into balance. 

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA decreased 0.16% in Jul 2025

26th Aug 2025

Key takeaway: Unlike past economic cycles, the residential real estate sector in the US has remained remarkably resilient this time around. However, even though prices are still rising on a y-o-y basis, the pace of increase has sharply deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Also while this is true at a national level, there are a number of sharp regional variances across the country. Significant variation in various regions and cities shows that the pace of appreciation has either significantly declined or prices has outright declined in many cities and regions. Monthly prints of the S&P Case Shiller Index at the national level for most of 2024 were lower than the corresponding prints in 2023. However, we also saw a reversal of trend in the months of November, December and January when the monthly price appreciation in the Index was higher than the same month one year ago. However, we are back to the trend of monthly price index increases that are lower than the corresponding figures last year. The latest release for the month of June also shows a slowdown in price appreciation. The National Index, on an non seasonally adjusted basis, increased 0.05% compared to the 0.5% seen in June 2024. Inventory in the US residential market is gradually increasing and prices are expected to hold steady if not mildly fall as the market comes more into balance. 

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA increased 0.05% in Jun 2025

29th Jul 2025

Key takeaway: Unlike past economic cycles, the residential real estate sector in the US has remained remarkably resilient this time around. However, even though prices are still rising on a y-o-y basis, the pace of increase has sharply deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Also while this is true at a national level, there are a number of sharp regional variances across the country. Significant variation in various regions and cities shows that the pace of appreciation has either significantly declined or prices has outright declined in many cities and regions. Monthly prints of the S&P Case Shiller Index at the national level for most of 2024 were lower than the corresponding prints in 2023. However, we also saw a reversal of trend in the months of November, December and January when the monthly price appreciation in the Index was higher than the same month one year ago. However, we are back to the trend of monthly price index increases that are lower than the corresponding figures last year. The monthly price index increase for the month of February and March was lower for the same month last year. The latest release for the month of May also shows a slowdown in price appreciation. The National Index, on an non seasonally adjusted basis, increased 0.45% compared to the 0.91% seen in May 2024. Inventory in the US residential market is gradually increasing and prices are expected to hold steady if not mildly fall as the market comes more into balance. 

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA increased 0.45% in May 2025

24th Jun 2025

Key takeaway: Unlike past economic cycles, the residential real estate sector in the US has remained remarkably resilient this time around. Even though prices are still rising on a y-o-y basis, the pace of increase has sharply deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. While this is true at a national level, there are a number of sharp regional variances across the country. The pace of price appreciation has been notably declining in the recent past. Moreover, significant variation in various regions and cities shows that the pace of appreciation has either significantly declined or prices has outright declined in many cities and regions. Monthly prints of the S&P Case Shiller Index at the national level for most of 2024 were lower than the corresponding prints in 2023. However, we also saw a reversal of trend in the months of November, December and January when the monthly price appreciation in the Index was higher than the same month one year ago. However, we are back to the trend of monthly price index increases that are lower than the corresponding figures last year. The monthly price index increase for the month of February and March was lower for the same month last year. The latest release for the month of April also shows a slowdown in price appreciation. The National Index, on an non seasonally adjusted basis, increased 0.6% compared to the 1.2% seen in April 2024. Inventory in the US residential market is gradually increasing and prices are expected to hold steady if not mildly fall as the market comes more into balance. 

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA increased 0.6% in Apr 2025

27th May 2025

Key takeaway: Home Prices in the US sky rocketed post the pandemic and in an era of loose fiscal and monetary policy. As mortgage rates rose to levels not seen in more than a decade and as houses became more unaffordable, activity volumes in the residential market collapsed. Yet, prices have remained remarkably resilient on a national level, though there are a number of sharp regional variances. The pace of price appreciation has been notably declining in the recent past. Moreover, significant variation in various regions and cities shows that the pace of appreciation has either significantly declined or prices has outright declined in many cities and regions. Monthly prints of the S&P Case Shiller Index at the national level for most of 2024 were lower than the corresponding prints in 2023. However, we also saw a reversal of trend in the months of November, December and January when the monthly price appreciation in the Index was higher than the same month one year ago. However, we are back to the trend of monthly price index increases that are lower than the corresponding figures last year. The monthly price index increase for the month of February was lower than February last year. The latest release for the month of March also shows a slowdown in price appreciation. The National Index, on an non seasonally adjusted basis, increased 0.8% compared to the 1.3% seen in March 2024. Inventory in the US residential market is gradually increasing and prices are expected to hold steady if not mildly fall as the market comes more into balance. The most important consideration in this context is the downstream impact on the OER component of the CPI. A lot is riding on the Shelter component coming down in the official CPI in the next few months. Thankfully, the shelter component in CPI data has started showing signs of a meaningful downward movement, though it still remains fairly elevated.  

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA increased 0.8% in Mar 2025

29th Apr 2025

Key takeaway: Home Prices in the US sky rocketed post the pandemic and in an era of loose fiscal and monetary policy. As mortgage rates rose to levels not seen in more than a decade and as houses became more unaffordable, activity volumes in the residential market collapsed. Yet, prices have remained remarkably resilient on a national level, though there are a number of sharp regional variances. The pace of price appreciation has been notably declining in the recent past. Moreover, significant variation in various regions and cities shows that the pace of appreciation has either significantly declined or prices has outright declined in many cities and regions. Monthly prints of the S&P Case Shiller Index at the national level for most of 2024 were lower than the corresponding prints in 2023. However, we also saw a reversal of trend in the months of November, December and January when the monthly price appreciation in the Index was higher than the same month one year ago. However, the latest release for the month of February shows a slowdown in price appreciation once again. The National Index, on an non seasonally adjusted basis, increased 0.4% compared to the 0.6% seen in February 2024. Inventory in the US residential market is gradually increasing and prices are expected to hold steady if not mildly fall as the market comes more into balance. The most important consideration in this context is the downstream impact on the OER component of the CPI. A lot is riding on the Shelter component coming down in the official CPI in the next few months. Thankfully, the shelter component in CPI data has started showing signs of a meaningful downward movement, though it still remains fairly elevated.  

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA increased 0.4% in Feb 2025

25th Mar 2025

Key takeaway: Home Prices in the US sky rocketed post the pandemic and in an era of loose fiscal and monetary policy. As mortgage rates rose to levels not seen in more than a decade and as houses became more unaffordable, activity volumes in the residential market collapsed. Yet, prices have remained remarkably resilient on a national level, though there are a number of sharp regional variances. However, like we mentioned over the past few months, the pace of price appreciation has been notably declining. Monthly prints for most of 2024 were lower than the corresponding prints in 2023. However, we have also seen a reversal in the last 2 months of 2024. The US National Home Price Index for November 2024 reported a 0.1% monthly decline on a non seasonally adjusted basis and the monthly decline in November 2023 was 0.2%. Similarly, the print for December 2024 showed the Index declined 0.1% compared with a 0.3% decline in December 2023. The Index increased 3.9% on a y-o-y basis in December 2024, up from the 3.7% recorded the previous month in November. The latest release shows a further acceleration of home prices with the National Index rising 0.1% on a non seasonally adjusted basis compared to minus 0.05% in January 2024. Inventory in the US residential market is gradually increasing and prices are expected to hold steady if not mildly fall as the market comes more into balance. Hence, the break in trend that we have seen over the past 3 months has been unusual. Nonetheless, the expectation still is that we will likely see a resumption of slowdown in price appreciation or further declines in prices. The most important consideration in this context is the downstream impact on the OER component of the CPI. A lot is riding on the Shelter component coming down in the official CPI in the next few months. Thankfully, the shelter component in CPI data has started showing signs of a meaningful downward movement, though it still remains fairly elevated.  

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA increased 0.1% in Jan 2025

25th Feb 2025

Key takeaway: Home Prices in the US sky rocketed post the pandemic and in an era of loose fiscal and monetary policy. As mortgage rates rose to levels not seen in more than a decade and as houses became more unaffordable, activity volumes in the residential market collapsed. Yet, prices have remained remarkably resilient on a national level, though there are a number of sharp regional variances. However, like we mentioned over the past few months, the pace of price appreciation has been notably declining. Monthly prints for most of 2024 were lower than the corresponding prints in 2023. However, we have seen a reversal in the last 2 months of 2024. The US National Home Price Index for November reported a 0.1% monthly decline on a non seasonally adjusted basis and the monthly decline in November last year was 0.2%. Similarly, the latest print showed the Index declined 0.1% in December 2024 compared with a 0.3% decline in December 2023. The Index increased 3.9% on a y-o-y basis in December 2024, up from the 3.7% recorded the previous month in November. Inventory in the US residential market is gradually increasing and prices are expected to hold steady if not mildly fall as the market comes more into balance. Hence, the break in trend that we have seen over the past 2 months has been unusual. Nonetheless it is more likely that we will see a resumption of slowdown in price appreciation or further declines in prices. The most important consideration in this context is the downstream impact on the OER component of the CPI. A lot is riding on the Shelter component coming down in the official CPI in the next few months. Thankfully, the shelter component in CPI data has started showing signs of a meaningful downward movement, though it still remains fairly elevated.  

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA decreased 0.1% in Dec 2024

28th Jan 2025

Key takeaway: The US Residential Real Estate market continues to perplex market participants. One one hand activity has remained muted. However, on the other, home prices continue to appreciate across the country – though there are a number of sharp regional variances. However, like we mentioned over the past few months, the pace of price appreciation has been notably declining. The latest data showed the US National Home Price Index for November reported a 0.1% monthly decline on a non seasonally adjusted basis and a 0.4% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis. The monthly decline in November last year was 0.2% on an NSA basis. On a year on year comparison basis most monthly prints have been lower this year compared to 2023. However, the latest print for November was an exception! The 10-city index was unchanged on a m-o-m basis and the 20-city composite index also declined 0.1%. Despite the slowdown in sales volumes, price appreciation has remained a key feature of the US housing market. However, with inventory rising in the existing home sales market and a monumental glut of inventory forming in the New Home Sales market, it is likely that we will continue to see price appreciation being capped in the near future. The most important consideration in this context is the downstream impact on the OER component of the CPI. A lot is riding on the Shelter component coming down in the official CPI in the next few months. Thankfully, the shelter component in CPI data has started showing signs of a meaningful downward movement, though it still remains fairly elevated.  

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA decreased 0.1% in Nov 2024

31st Dec 2024

Key takeaway: The US Residential Real Estate market continues to perplex market participants. One one hand activity has remained muted. However, on the other, home prices continue to appreciate across the country – though there are a number of sharp regional variances. However, like we mentioned over the past few months, the pace of price appreciation has been declining. The latest data showed the US National Home Price Index for October reported a 0.2% monthly decline on a non seasonally adjusted basis and a 0.3% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis. Moreover, the monthly decline of 0.2% can be compared against a positive 0.1% recorded in October 2023. The annual gain in October was 3.4% compared to a 3.9% annual gain in September. The 10-city and 20-city composite indexes also declined 0.1% and 0.2% on a m-o-m basis. Despite the slowdown in sales volumes, price appreciation has remained a key feature of the US housing market. However, with inventory rising in the existing home sales market and a monumental glut of inventory forming in the New Home Sales market, it is likely that we will continue to see price appreciation being capped in the near future. The most important consideration in this context is the downstream impact on the OER component of the CPI. A lot is riding on the Shelter component coming down in the official CPI in the next few months. Thankfully, the shelter component in CPI data has started showing signs of a meaningful downward movement, though it still remains fairly elevated.  

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA decreased 0.2% in Oct 2024

26th Nov 2024

Key takeaway: The US Residential Real Estate market continues to perplex market participants. One one hand activity has remained muted. However, on the other, home prices continue to appreciate across the country – though there are a number of sharp regional variances. However, like we mentioned over the past few months, the pace of price appreciation has been declining. The latest data showed the US National Home Price Index for September reported a 0.1% monthly decline on a non seasonally adjusted basis and a 0.3% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis. Moreover, the monthly decline of 0.1% can be compared against a positive 0.3% recorded in September 2023 and an average of +0.12% recorded between 2015 and 2019. The annual gain in September was 3.9% compared to a 4.2% annual gain in August. The 10-city and 20-city composite indexes also declined 0.4% and 0.3% on a m-o-m basis. Despite the slowdown in sales volumes, price appreciation has remained a key feature of the US housing market. However, with inventory rising in the existing home sales market and a monumental glut of inventory forming in the New Home Sales market, it is likely that we will continue to see price appreciation being capped in the near future. The most important consideration in this context is the downstream impact on the OER component of the CPI. A lot is riding on the Shelter component coming down in the official CPI in the next few months. Thankfully, the shelter component in CPI data has started showing signs of a meaningful downward movement, though it still remains fairly elevated.  

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA decreased 0.1% in Sep 2024

29th Oct 2024

Key takeaway: The US Residential Real Estate market continues to perplex market participants. One one hand activity has remained muted. However, on the other, home prices continue to appreciate across the country – though there are a number of sharp regional variances. The latest data showed the US National Home Price Index for August reported a 0.1% monthly decline on a non seasonally adjusted basis and a 0.3% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis. The annual gain in August was 4.2% compared to a 5.0% annual gain in July. However, the key trend to note is that the quantum of price appreciation has been decelerating. For instance the monthly gain for the National Index was a negative 0.1% in August 2024 compared to +0.4% in August 2023. The 10-city and 20-city composite indexes also declined 0.4% and 0.3% on a m-o-m basis. Despite the slowdown in sales volumes, price appreciation has remained a key feature of the US housing market. However, with inventory rising in the existing home sales market and a monumental glut of inventory forming in the New Home Sales market, it is likely that we will see price appreciation being capped in the near future. The most important consideration in this context is the downstream impact on the OER component of the CPI. A lot is riding on the Shelter component coming down in the official CPI in the next few months. Thankfully, the shelter component in CPI data has started showing signs of a meaningful downward movement, though it still remains fairly elevated.  

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA decreased 0.1% in Aug 2024

24th Sep 2024

Key takeaway: Activity in the US Residential Real Estate market has been relatively weak of late. Both Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales have trended down. Yet, home prices in the US, as evidenced by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, continue their grind up. The latest data showed the US National Home Price Index reported a 0.1% monthly gain and a 5.0% annual gain in July. However, the key trend to note is that the quantum of price appreciation has been decelerating. For instance the monthly gain for the National Index was 0.1% in July 2024 compared to 0.6% in July 2023. The 10-city and 20-city composite indexes were unchanged on a m-o-m basis. Despite the slowdown in sales volumes, price appreciation has remained a key feature of the US housing market. However, with inventory rising in the existing home sales market and a monumental glut of inventory forming in the New Home Sales market, it is likely that we will see price appreciation being capped in the near future. The most important consideration in this context is the downstream impact on the OER component of the CPI. A lot is riding on the Shelter component coming down in the official CPI in the next few months. Thankfully, the shelter component in CPI data has started showing signs of a meaningful downward movement, though it still remains fairly elevated.  

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA increased 0.1% in Jul 2024

27th Aug 2024

Key takeaway: Activity in the US Residential Real Estate market has been relatively weak of late. Both Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales have trended down. Yet, home prices in the US, as evidenced by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, continue their grind up. The latest data showed the US National Home Price Index reported a 0.5% monthly gain and a 5.4% annual gain in June. The 10-city and 20-city composite indexes were up as well. The 10 City composite saw an increase of 7.4% y-o-y and 0.6% m-o-m. The 20 City composite saw an increase of 6.6% y-o-y and 0.6% m-o-m. Despite the slowdown in sales volumes, price appreciation remains a key feature of the US housing market. The key point to note though is that the pace of appreciation has slowed down a fair bit. For instance, the national y-o-y price appreciation is down from 5.9% in May to 5.4% in June. Yet, the bottom line is that US home prices remain on an upward trend. The most important consideration in this context is the downstream impact on the OER component of the CPI. A lot is riding on the Shelter component coming down in the official CPI in the next few months. Thankfully, the shelter component in CPI data has started showing signs of a meaningful downward movement.  

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA increased 0.6% in Jun 2024

30th Jul 2024

Key takeaway: Activity in the US Residential Real Estate market has been relatively weak of late. Both Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales have trended down. Yet, home prices in the US, as evidenced by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, continue their grind up. The latest data showed the US National Home Price Index reported a 0.9% monthly gain and a 5.9% annual gain in May. The 10-city and 20-city composite indexes were up as well. The 10 City composite saw an increase of 7.6% y-o-y and 1.0% m-o-m. The 20 City composite saw an increase of 6.8 y-o-y and 1.0% m-o-m. Despite the slowdown in sales volumes, price appreciation remains a key feature of the US housing market. The key point to note though is that the pace of appreciation has slowed down a fair bit. Yet, the bottom line is that US home prices remain on an upward trend. The most important consideration in this context is the downstream impact on the OER component of the CPI. A lot is riding on the Shelter component coming down in the official CPI in the next few months. Thankfully, the latest CPI report showed that OER is finally beginning to show signs of a meaningful downward movement. 

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA increased 0.9% in May 2024

25th Jun 2024

Key takeaway: Activity in the US Residential Real Estate market has been relatively weak of late. Both Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales have trended down. Yet, home prices in the US, as evidenced by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, continue their grind up. The latest data showed the US National Home Price Index reported a 1.2% monthly gain and a 6.3% annual gain in April. While this was a slight deceleration from the pace seen in the previous month of March, the Index is still making all time highs. Needless to say, the Index is on a nominal basis and hence is not taking out the effect of inflation. Yet, the bottomline remains that US home prices remain on an upward trend. The most important consideration in this context is the downstream impact on the OER component of the CPI. A lot is riding on the Shelter component coming down in the official CPI in the next few months. Candidly, it is difficult to foresee significant rate cuts from the Fed without further easing of CPI data, which itself is conditional on the OER. The Index has now posted sharp gains for 2 months in a row. The 10-city and 20-city composite indexes were up as well. The 10 City composite saw an increase of 8.0% y-o-y and 1.4% m-o-m. The 20 City composite saw an increase of 7.2 y-o-y and 1.4% m-o-m.  

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA increased 1.2% in Apr 2024

28th Mar 2024

Key takeaway: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index reported a 1.3% monthly gain and a 6.5% annual gain in March. The monthly gain was a sharp acceleration from the 0.6% gain reported in February. While it is common to witness price gains as the spring / summer sale season gets under way, the Index also reported a 0.3% gain after seasonal adjustment. After having levelled off in late 2023, the past 2 months have once again shown larger than expected gains in US home prices. This can partially be attributed to some return in activity in the existing home sales market where sellers have been more willing to list their homes for sale adjusting to the new higher for longer rates reality. While this can be construed to be good from the real estate industry’s perspective, it can also mean there would be continued pressure on the shelter component of the CPI Index. The shelter component, and more specifically OER, has been surprisingly stubborn at high levels for the past two years and has been the main thorn in the Fed’s inflation fight. Rising real estate prices would likely exacerbate this issue. Moreover, the wealth effect also acts as a tailwind for consumption. The 10-city and 20-city composite indexes were up as well. The 10 City composite saw an increase of 8.2% y-o-y and 1.6% m-o-m. The 20 City composite saw an increase of 7.4% y-o-y and 1.6% m-o-m.  

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA increased 1.3% in Mar 2024

30th Apr 2024

Key takeaway: The US Residential Real estate market remains centerstage to have a view of the US economy as a whole. From that perspective, the latest release of the S&P Core Logic Case Shiller House Price Index was a very important one. After registering monthly increases for almost the whole of 2023, the S&P/Case Shiller House Price Index registered a negative m-o-m prints for 3 months in a row in November, December and January – albeit on a NSA basis. It is common for house prices to decline during the winter months as purchase activity reduces. Nonetheless, 3 back to back monthly decreases were noteworthy, especially after house prices have run up so high in the recent years. High mortgage rates, higher new listing and an increasing inventory of homes both in the existing home and new home market were expected to keep a lid on house prices overall. However, in a rather surprising development, US house prices accelerated once again in February. The National Index (non seasonally adjusted) rose a substantial 0.6% from the previous moth. This brings the total y-o-y increase to 6.4% higher than the 6.0% seen in January. The 10-city and 20-city composite indexes were up as well. Last spring similar trends emerged with home prices starting to rise in February and March before cooling down in the late summer period. The 0.6% rise in the month of February 2024 is even higher than the 0.2% rise seen last year in the month of February 2023 and higher than the 0.2% average increase seen in February from 2015 to 2019. While this is not a great sign from the perspective of balance returning to the US housing market, it does provide some indications of the US market rationalizing and adjusting to an environment of higher for longer interest rates. It will be interesting to note if this acceleration in prices continues through the summer. Lastly, this also has a downstream impact on rental prices. Shelter inflation has been the elephant in the CPI room and it is still not showing any signs of decline in the official CPI data.  

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA increased 0.6% in Feb 2024

26th Mar 2024

Key takeaway: The US Residential Real estate market remains centerstage to have a view of the US economy as a whole. After registering monthly increases for almost the whole of 2023, the S&P/Case Shiller House Price Index registered a negative m-o-m prints for 3 months in a row in November, December and January – albeit on a NSA basis. The National NSA Index declined 0.11% in January. It is common for house prices to decline during the winter months as purchase activity reduces. Nonetheless, 3 back to back monthly decreases are noteworthy, especially after house prices have run up so high in the recent years. While it still might be too early to state that this is a beginning of a secular downward trend in house prices, there is every indication that activity might pick up in the Existing Home Sales market in terms of increasing inventory and more seller being willing to list their homes for sale. With inventory increasing and more sellers willing to let go of their home, home prices might moderate from the recent highs. To get a full picture of US Residential Real Estate in the past 3 years, please read the prior months’ notes below. It is also key to note that even though the House Price Index has been declining in the recent months in line with seasonal patterns it is still increasing on a year on year basis. That is mostly attributable to the fact that House Prices had sharply fallen in 2H 2022 into early 2023. As more inventory returns to the existing home sales market, overall US national home prices might continue to moderate.  

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA decreased 0.11% in Jan 2024

27th Feb 2024

Key takeaway: After registering monthly increases for almost the whole of 2023, the S&P/Case Shiller House Price Index registered a negative m-o-m print for the second month in a row, albeit on a NSA basis. It is common for house prices to decline during the winter months as purchase activity reduces. Nonetheless, 2 back to back monthly decreases are noteworthy. To some extent, this was expected. The monthly increases in the Index had been moderating for a few months now. To be specific – the Index had gained 0.17% in October, 0.3% m-o-m in September following a 0.4% increase in August, 0.6% increase in July, 0.9% increase in June and a 1.2% in May. While it still might be too early to state that this is a beginning of a secular downward trend in house prices, there is every indication that activity might pick up in the Existing Home Sales market in terms of increasing inventory and more seller being willing to list their homes for sale. With inventory increasing and more sellers willing to let go of their home, home prices might moderate from the recent highs. Once again to reiterate the story of US Real Estate so far – Even though interest rates rose substantially in the past 18-24 months, US Residential House Prices did not fall – in fact they rose through most of 2023. In 2022, as the Fed embarked on the fastest and largest tightening program ever since Paul Volcker’s days, the fear and consensus expectation was for the housing market to crash. House prices did fall in late 2022 but for only a short period of time. In an unusual turn of events, as rates increased further, more home owners started to experience the “rate lock” phenomenon and supply of houses fell dramatically. On the other hand, despite higher mortgage rates and lower affordability, resilient demand kept a floor below residential purchases and home prices started increasing once again. This trend might finally be coming to an end and we might potentially see an increase in inventory in both the existing and new homes market. The last point to note though is that the Case Shiller Index data comes with a significant lag. The December Index is reflective of contracts signed in the months before December. Mortgage rates have since fallen even further in December and January. 

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA decreased 0.4% in Dec 2023

30th Jan 2024

Key takeaway: After registering monthly increases for almost the whole of 2023, the S&P/Case Shiller House Price Index registered a negative m-o-m print, albeit on a NSA basis. It is common for house prices to decline during the winter months as purchase activity reduces. Nonetheless, the decrease is noteworthy since it is the first since January 2023. To some extent, this was expected. The monthly increases in the Index had been moderating for a few months now. To be specific – the Index had gained 0.17% in October, 0.3% m-o-m in September following a 0.4% increase in August, 0.6% increase in July, 0.9% increase in June and a 1.2% in May. While it might be too early to state that this is a beginning of a secular downward trend in house prices, there is every indication that activity might pick up in the Existing Home Sales market in terms of increasing inventory and more seller being willing to list their homes for sale. Once again to reiterate the story of US Real Estate so far – Even though interest rates rose substantially in the past 18-24 months, US Residential House Prices did not fall – in fact they rose through most of 2023. In 2022, as the Fed embarked on the fastest and largest tightening program ever since Paul Volcker’s days, the fear and consensus expectation was for the housing market to crash. House prices did fall in late 2022 but for only a short period of time. In an unusual turn of events, as rates increased further, more home owners started to experience the “rate lock” phenomenon and supply of houses fell dramatically. On the other hand, despite higher mortgage rates and lower affordability, resilient demand kept a floor below residential purchases and home prices started increasing once again. This trend might finally be coming to an end and we might potentially see an increase in inventory in both the existing and new homes market. The last point to note though is that the Case Shiller Index data comes with a significant lag. The November Index is reflective of contracts signed in the months before November. Mortgage rates have since fallen even further in December and January. 

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA decreased 0.2% in Nov 2023

26th Dec 2023

Key takeaway: The story of US Real Estate – Even though interest rates have had a stratospheric rise in the past 18-24 months, US Residential House Prices have not fallen – in fact they have risen. In 2022, as the Fed embarked on the fastest and largest tightening program ever since Paul Volcker’s days, the fear and consensus expectation was for the housing market to crash. However, this has been the shortest housing downturn in the history of the US. The S&P / Case Shiller House Price Index peaked in June 2022 and then started falling as the initial interest rate hikes started to take effect. However, in an unusual turn of events, as rates increased further, more home owners started to experience the “rate lock” phenomenon and supply of houses fell dramatically. On the other hand, despite higher mortgage rates and lower affordability, resilient demand kept a floor below residential purchases and home prices, which had experienced a mild decline in the second half of 2022, started increasing once again. The latest release of the S&P Case Shiller Price Index showed the National home price NSA Index reported a 0.17% increase in October. The increase was a slight moderation from the relatively large monthly jumps seen in recent times. To be specific – the Index had gained 0.3% m-o-m in September following a 0.4% increase in August, 0.6% increase in July, 0.9% increase in June and a 1.2% the month earlier in May. The Index is now up 4.8% on a y-o-y basis. The last point to note though is that the Case Shiller Index data comes with a significant lag. The October Index is reflective of contracts signed in the months before October. Mortgage rates have since fallen in November and beyond. There is also an expectation that the supply of homes will gradually increase as sellers gets used to this new normal and decide not to delay putting their house on the market any further. This may put a floor under the Existing Home Sales market as well as taper some of the recent price gains. 

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA increased 0.17% in Oct 2023
• The S&P/Case Shiller NSA Index through FRED

28th Nov 2023

Key takeaway: Even though interest rates have had a stratospheric rise in the past 18-24 months, US Residential House Prices have not fallen – in fact they have risen. In 2022, as the Fed embarked on the fastest and largest tightening program ever since Paul Volcker’s days, the fear and consensus expectation was for the housing market to crash. However, this has been the shortest housing downturn in the history of the US. The S&P / Case Shiller House Price Index peaked in June 2022 and then started falling as the initial interest rate hikes started to take effect. However, in an unusual turn of events, as rates increased further, more home owners started to experience the “rate lock” phenomenon and supply of houses fell dramatically. On the other hand, despite higher mortgage rates and lower affordability, resilient demand kept a floor below residential purchases and home prices, which had experienced a mild decline in the second half of 2022, started increasing once again. The latest release of the S&P Case Shiller Price Index showed the National home price NSA Index reported a NSA 0.3% m-o-m gain in September following a 0.4% increase in August, 0.6% increase in July, 0.9% increase in June and a 1.2% the month earlier in May. The Index is now up 3.93% on a y-o-y basis. The last point to note though is that the Case Shiller Index data comes with a significant lag. The September Index is reflective of contracts signed in the months before September. Mortgage rates had increased even further in October and real estate purchase activity is more likely to diminish going forward. Also it is likely that the supply of homes will gradually increase as sellers gets used to this new normal and decide not to delay putting their house on the market any further.

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA increased 0.3% in Sep 2023

31st Oct 2023

Key takeaway: House prices continue to rise in the US. In 2022, as the Fed embarked on the fastest and largest tightening program ever since Paul Volcker’s days, the fear and consensus expectation was for the housing market to crash. However, this has been the shortest housing downturn in the history of the US. The latest release of the S&P / Case Shiller House Price Index data shows a continuing recovery in house prices which bottomed around mid-2022. Similar to other private measures of the residential real estate sector, the S&P Case Shiller house price indices recorded a positive m-o-m increase for the month of August 2023 (released in October 2023). The National home price NSA Index reported a NSA 0.4% m-o-m gain in August following a 0.6% increase in July, 0.9% increase in June and a 1.2% the month earlier in May. On a SA basis though, the monthly index gain reaccelerated from 0.65% in July to 0.9% in August. Irrespective of the differences due to seasonality, the key point remains that the drop in residential real estate prices that most were expecting same time last year, has not materialized at all. Without going into intricate details, the reason remains resilient new houses demand and shortage of overall supply of houses in the US. On a year on year basis, the National Index is now up 2.6%. The last point to note though is that the Case Shiller Index data comes with a significant lag. The August Index is reflective of contracts signed in the months before August. Mortgage rates have since reached stratospheric levels and real estate purchase activity is more likely to diminish going forward. 

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA increased 0.4% in Aug 2023

26th Sep 2023

Key takeaway: House prices continue to rise in the US. In 2022, as the Fed embarked on the fastest and largest tightening program ever since Paul Volcker’s days, the fear and consensus expectation was for the housing market to crash. However, this has been the shortest housing downturn in the history of the US. The latest release of the S&P / Case Shiller House Price Index data shows a continuing recovery in house prices which bottomed around mid-2022. Similar to other private measures of the residential real estate sector, the S&P Case Shiller house price indices recorded a positive m-o-m increase for the month of July 2023 (released in September 2023). The National home price NSA Index reported a NSA 0.6% m-o-m gain in July following a 0.9% increase in June and a 1.2% the month earlier in May. The 10-city and 20-city NSA composites posted increases of approximately 0.6% each. There are two key points to understand about the continuous rise in house prices. First, this is lending a lot of strength to the “no recession” camp. Second, the second order effects of this rise in house prices risk an upsurge in CPI, both in the overall spending by consumers and the eventual effect of increasing rents in the US 

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA increased 0.6% in Jul 2023

29th Aug 2023

Key takeaway: House prices continue to rise in the US. In 2022, as the Fed embarked on the fastest and largest tightening program ever since Paul Volcker’s days, the fear and consensus expectation was for the housing market to crash. However, this has been the shortest housing downturn in the history of the US. The latest release of the S&P / Case Shiller House Price Index data shows a continuing recovery in house prices which bottomed around mid-2022. Similar to other private measures of the residential real estate sector, the S&P Case Shiller house price indices recorded a positive m-o-m increase for the month of June 2023 (released in August 2023). The National home price NSA Index reported a NSA 0.9% m-o-m gain in June following a 1.2% the month earlier in May. The 10-city and 20-city NSA composites posted increases of 0.9% each. On a year on year basis though, the home price index is mostly flat or slightly down (for all three indices). There are two key points to understand about the continuous rise in house prices. First, that this is lending a lot of strength to the “no recession” camp. Second, the second order effects of this rise in house prices risk an upsurge in CPI, both in the overall spending by consumers and the eventual effect of increasing rents in the US. 

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA increased 0.9% in Jun 2023

25th Jul 2023

Key takeaway: House prices continue to rise in the US. In 2022, as the Fed embarked on the fastest and largest tightening program ever since Paul Volcker’s days, the fear and consensus expectation was for the housing market to crash. However, this has been the shortest housing downturn in the history of the US. The latest release of the S&P / Case Shiller House Price Index data shows a continuing recovery in house prices which bottomed around mid-2022. Similar to other private measures of the residential real estate sector, the S&P Case Shiller house price indices recorded a positive m-o-m increase for the month of May 2023 (released in Jul 2023). The National home price NSA Index reported a NSA 1.2% m-o-m gain in May. The 10-city and 20-city NSA composites posted increases of 1.5% each. There are two key points to understand about the continuous rise in house prices. First, that this is lending a lot of strength to the “no recession” camp. Second, the second order effects of this rise in house prices risk an upsurge in CPI, both in the overall spending by consumers and the eventual effect of increasing rents in the US. 

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA increased 1.2% in May 2023

27th Jun 2023

Key takeaway: House prices continue to rise in the US. The latest release of the S&P / Case Shiller House Price Index data shows a continuing recovery in house prices which bottomed around mid-2022. Similar to other private measures of the residential real estate sector, the S&P Case Shiller house price indices recorded a positive m-o-m increase for the month of Apr 2023 (released in Jun 2023). The National home price NSA Index reported a NSA 1.3% m-o-m gain in Apr. The 10-city and 20-city NSA composites posted increases of 1.7% and 1.7%. The continuous rise in house prices is lending a lot of strength to the “no recession” camp. 

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA increased 1.3% in Apr 2023

30th May 2023

Key takeaway: The latest release of the S&P / Case Shiller House Price Index data shows a continuing recovery in house prices. Similar to other private measures of the residential real estate sector, the S&P Case Shiller house price indices recorded a positive m-o-m increase for the month of Mar 2023 (released in May 2023). The National home price NSA Index reported a 1.3% m-o-m gain in Mar. The 10-city and 20-city composites posted increases of 1.6% and 1.5%. After seasonal adjustments, the national index posted 0.4% m-o-m and the 10-city and 20-city indexes posted increases of 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. House prices, as recorded with this Index, had started falling mid 2022. However, the decline is house prices has turned a corner now with 2 continuous months of price increases. The shortage of homes in the existing home sales market together with continued buyer resilience, has put a floor under the house prices declines. Given this and other recent economic indicators, it is not surprising to see the Fed funds futures market price another 25 basis points rate hike at the June meeting!

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA increased 1.3% in Mar 2023

25th Apr 2023

Key takeaway: Similar to other private measures of the residential real estate sector, the S&P Case Shiller house price indices recorded a positive m-o-m increase for the month of Feb 2023 (released in Apr 2023). Consensus expectations were for the indices to move lower on a m-o-m basis. The National home price NSA Index reported a 0.2% m-o-m gain in Feb. The 10-city and 20-city composites posted increases of 0.3% and 0.2%. After seasonal adjustments, the national index posted 0.2% m-o-m and the 10-city and 20-city indexes posted increases of 0.1%. The moderation of the declining home prices trend is now being uniformly seen across various private indicators. It will be interesting to watch whether the downward trend re-commences in the subsequent months or do home prices stabilize at this level. The level of house prices also have a direct effect on shelter inflation – albeit with a lag.

• The S&P/Case Shiller National Index NSA increased 0.2% in Feb 2023