US Macro Updates

The One Stop Portal for US Macroeconomic Data. Simplified and Summarized! 

We simplify and summarize key data so that you don’t have to spend hours reading confusing and long media releases. Read key economic releases and major events here in under 2 minutes. And we will explain the key takeaway for you. Stay informed and form a robust view on macroeconomic matters to aid your successful investment decisions

16th Jul 2026

Pending Home Sales

Key takeaway: The NAR Pending Home Sales report for June 2026, released July 16, showed contract signings falling sharply after a strong spring, undercutting hopes that the earlier rebound in housing demand had staying power. The Pending Home Sales Index sank 5.4% month-over-month to 72.5 — far worse than the 0.5% decline expected and the first drop in five months — leaving the index at its lowest level since January, though it was down just 0.3% year-over-year. Contract signings fell across all four major U.S. regions on a monthly basis, but the year-over-year picture was more mixed: the Northeast and Midwest posted modest annual gains while the South and West continued to slip. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun pointed to the combination of the highest mortgage rates in nearly a year and a record-high national median home price as the driving forces behind the pullback, calling the market “tepid” and especially difficult for first-time buyers, though he noted that continued job growth could help cushion demand going forward. Since pending sales lead closed transactions by roughly one to two months, the sharp June decline points to softer existing-home sales prints in the coming release cycle unless mortgage rates — which averaged 6.49% in June, their highest since last August — begin to ease.

17th Jun 2026

Key takeaway: The NAR Pending Home Sales report for May 2026, released on June 17, delivered the strongest monthly print in over a year and provided a meaningful forward signal for closed sales through July and August. Pending sales rose 3.8% month-on-month and 4.8% year-on-year, with gains recorded across all four regions — the broadest regional sweep since early 2025 — led by the Northeast up 8.7% and the Midwest up 8.1% on the month, with the South and West posting more modest gains of 1.0% and 0.7% respectively. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun framed the result as evidence of a late spring buyer rush driven by pent-up demand and a growing consumer acceptance of above-6% mortgage rates as the new normal, while noting that falling oil prices — should they persist — could deliver modest further relief on mortgage rates, though the scale of federal borrowing and AI-driven investment spending will limit any meaningful decline. The strength in the Northeast and Midwest is notable given both regions have historically lagged the South and West, and Yun flagged that inventory constraints in the Northeast are now acute enough to be generating price pressure even as contract signings accelerate. Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant offered a more cautious read, noting that affordability remains a binding constraint for all but the highest-income buyers, with starter homes now exceeding $1 million in nearly 250 US cities, and warning that rising inflation and economic uncertainty may cause sellers to hold back — capping how far the May contract surge can translate into a durable recovery in closed sales.

19th May 2026
Key takeaway: The NAR Pending Home Sales report for April 2026, released on May 19, offered a modestly encouraging signal for the spring housing market, with contract signings rising for a third consecutive month and posting their first year-over-year gain in several months. The Pending Home Sales Index rose 1.4% month-over-month to 74.8 — beating the consensus expectation of 1.0% growth and marking the highest index level since November — while the year-over-year reading turned positive at 3.2%, a notable improvement from March’s 1.1% annual decline. Regional results were broadly positive: the Northeast led with a 6.6% monthly gain, the Midwest rose 3.0%, and the West added 0.4%, with only the South declining 0.7% on the month — though the South posted the strongest year-over-year gain of any region at 4.7%. As a leading indicator, the three-month run of contract signings points to a modest firming in closed existing-home sales through June and July, providing some forward momentum after April’s existing-home sales came in near the cycle-low of 4.02 million annualized units. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun framed the gains as demand breaking through despite headwinds, noting that a further retreat in mortgage rates from current levels could unlock meaningfully stronger activity — though he cautioned that without a meaningful increase in supply, renewed buyer demand risks pushing home price growth past wage growth and eroding the homeownership rate further.

21st Apr 2026
Key takeaway: The NAR Pending Home Sales report for March 2026, released April 21, offered a modestly encouraging signal for the spring housing market. The Pending Home Sales Index rose 1.5% month-on-month to a four-month high of 73.7 — well ahead of the Bloomberg consensus expectation of a 0.5% advance and extending the upwardly revised 2.5% gain in February. The index has now recovered further from January’s all-time low of 70.9, though at 73.7 it remains deeply depressed relative to the 2001 baseline of 100. Regionally, the gains were uneven: the Northeast rose 4.4% and the South jumped 3.9%, while the Midwest fell 1.3% and the West dropped 2.6%. On a year-on-year basis, pending sales were still down 1.1%, a slightly wider gap than the 0.8% annual decline in February. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun struck a cautiously constructive tone, noting that contract signings rose despite higher mortgage rates, pointing to pent-up housing demand, with the South benefitting from a combination of price cuts over the past year and the strongest job growth of any region. Realtor.com’s senior economist added that despite mortgage rates climbing from around 6.11% in mid-March to 6.38% by month-end due to the Iran conflict, rates remained roughly half a percentage point below the same period last year, preserving much of the year-on-year buying power gains that have quietly been accumulating — a meaningful tailwind as the spring selling season unfolds.

18th Mar 2026
Key takeaway: Data released by the National Association of Realtors showed that pending home sales increased by 1.8% in February, with the Pending Home Sales Index rising to 72.1, following a decline in the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, contract signings were 0.8% lower than in February 2025, indicating that housing demand remains subdued relative to a year earlier. The increase in pending sales was driven by stronger activity in the Midwest, South and West, while contract signings declined in the Northeast during the month. The rise in contract signings were also on the back of slightly lower mortgage rates in February. However, since the start of the war in March, rates have inched back up again. Taken together, the latest report suggests that housing demand improved modestly in February, supported by lower mortgage rates earlier in the year, although overall activity remains relatively weak compared with historical levels.

19th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales decreased by 0.8% in the month of January. The Index declined from 71.5 in December to 70.9 in January. The print was slightly lower than consensus expectations which called for a increase of 1.4%. The pending home sales index has mostly been flat for the past 2 years. Activity in the existing homes market remained muted and at multi-year lows mostly due to high mortgage rates and price unaffordability. However, home buyers remain very sensitive to mortgage rates. We have seen that in the recent past when mortgage market index and weekly mortgage applications surged on the back of a drop of mortgage rates fuelled by the POTUS announcement on GSEs buying mortgage backed securities. Interestingly, the pending sales index had risen for 3 months in a row until November. Nonetheless, as mentioned above, activity in the new and existing homes market remains at multi year lows as high mortgage rate continue to crimp demand and buyers’ ability to buy homes. 

21st Jan 2026

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales decreased by 9.3% in the month of December. The Index declined from 79.2 in November to 71.8 in December. The print was significantly lower than consensus expectations which called for a decrease of 0.3%. The pending home sales index has mostly been flat for the past 2 years. Activity in the existing homes market remained muted and at multi-year lows mostly due to high mortgage rates and price unaffordability. However, home buyers remain very sensitive to mortgage rates. We have seen that in the recent past and even as recently as last week when mortgage market index, weekly mortgage applications surged on the back of a drop of mortgage rates fuelled by the POTUS announcement on GSEs buying mortgage backed securities. Interestingly, the pending sales index had risen for 3 months in a row until November. Nonetheless, as mentioned above, activity in the new and existing homes market remains at multi year lows as high mortgage rate continue to crimp demand and buyers’ ability to buy homes. 

29th Dec 2025

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales increased by 3.3% in the month of November. The Index from 76.7 in October to 79.2 in October. The print was higher than consensus expectations which called for an increase of 1.0%. The pending home sales index has mostly been flat for the past 2 years. Activity in the existing homes market remained muted and at multi-year lows mostly due to high mortgage rates and price unaffordability. The 30 year mortgage rates continues to hover around the 6.3% mark. We saw a sharp increase in a few weeks in September in some indicators like new home sales, mortgage market index, weekly mortgage applications, etc. Home buyers seem to be acutely responsive to even slight drops in mortgage rates. Interestingly, the pending sales index has risen for 3 months in a row. Nonetheless, as mentioned above, activity in the new and existing homes market remains at multi year lows as high mortgage rate continue to crimp demand and buyers’ ability to buy homes. 

25th Nov 2025

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales increased by 1.9% in the month of October. The Index from 74.9 in September to 76.3 in October. The print was higher than consensus expectations which called for an increase of 0.5%. The pending home sales index has mostly been flat for the past 2 years. Activity in the existing homes market remained muted and at multi-year lows mostly due to high mortgage rates and price unaffordability. The 30 year mortgage rates continues to hover around the 6.3% mark. We saw a sharp increase in a few weeks in September in some indicators like new home sales, mortgage market index, weekly mortgage applications, etc. Home buyers seem to be acutely responsive to even slight drops in mortgage rates. Nonetheless, as mentioned above, activity in the new and existing homes market remains at multi year lows as high mortgage rate continue to crimp demand and buyers’ ability to buy homes.

29th Oct 2025

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales were unchanged in the month of September. The Index held flat at a level of 74.8 in September. The print was much lower than consensus expectations which called for an increase of 1.6%. Increases in PHS in the North East and South were offset by decreases in the Midwest and West. The pending home sales index has mostly been flat for the past 2 years. Activity in the existing homes market remained muted and at multi-year lows mostly due to high mortgage rates and price unaffordability. The 30 year mortgage rates continues to hover around the 6.3% mark. We saw a sharp increase in a few weeks in September in some indicators like new home sales, mortgage market index, weekly mortgage applications, etc. Home buyers seem to be acutely responsive to even slight drops in mortgage rates. Nonetheless, as mentioned above, activity in the new and existing homes market remains at multi year lows as high mortgage rate continue to crimp demand and buyers’ ability to buy homes.

29th Sep 2025

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales increased sharply by 4% in the month of August. The Index increased from 71.8 in July to 74.7 in August. The print was much higher than consensus expectations which called for an increase of 0.2%. The pending home sales index has mostly been flat for the past 2 years. Activity in the existing homes market remained muted and at multi-year lows mostly due to high mortgage rates and price unaffordability. The latest data point shows that home purchase demand remains very sensitive to interest rates and that there is still underlying demand. This month we saw a sharp increase in other indicators like new home sales, mortgage market index, weekly mortgage applications, etc. Home buyers seem to be acutely responsive to even slight drops in mortgage rates. Nonetheless, as mentioned above, activity in the new and existing homes market remains at multi year lows as high mortgage rate continue to crimp demand and buyers’ ability to buy homes.

28th Aug 2025

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales decreased by 0.4% in the month of July. The Index decreased from 72.0 in June to 71.7 in July. The print was mostly in line consensus expectations. The pending home sales index has mostly been flat for the past 2 years. Activity in the existing homes market remained muted and at multi-year lows mostly due to high mortgage rates and price unaffordability. Some recent increases in activity have been attributed to recent drops in mortgage rates. Home buyers seem to be acutely responsive to even slight drops in mortgage rates. Nonetheless, as mentioned above, activity in the new and existing homes market remains at multi year lows as high mortgage rate continue to crimp demand and buyers’ ability to buy homes.

30th Jul 2025

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales decreased by 0.8% in the month of June. The Index decreased from 72.6 in May to 72.0 in June. The print was also lower than consensus expectations of an increase of 0.2%. The pending home sales index has mostly been flat for the past 2 years. Activity in the existing homes market remained muted and at multi-year lows mostly due to high mortgage rates and price unaffordability. Some recent increases in activity have been attributed to recent drops in mortgage rates. Home buyers seem to be acutely responsive to even slight drops in mortgage rates. Nonetheless, as mentioned above, activity in the new and existing homes market remains at multi year lows as high mortgage rate continue to crimp demand and buyers’ ability to buy homes.

26th Jun 2025

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales increased by 1.8% in the month of May. The Index increased from 71.3 in April to 72.6 in May. While the m-o-m increase is positive news for the residential market, the pending home sales index has mostly been flat for the past 2 years. Activity in the existing homes market remained muted and at multi-year lows mostly due to high mortgage rates and price unaffordability. Some recent increases in activity have been attributed to recent drops in mortgage rates. The rate on the popular 30 year fixed rate mortgage had dropped to 6.65% in March from about 7% in mid January. Home buyers seem to be acutely responsive to even slight drops in mortgage rates. Nonetheless, as mentioned above, activity in the new and existing homes market remains at multi year lows as high mortgage rate continue to crimp demand and buyers’ ability to buy homes.

29th May 2025

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales decreased sharply by 6.0% in the month of April. The Index decreased from 76.1 in March to 71.3 April. Pending home sales had risen for 4 consecutive months from August to November. However, the index fell again from November to January sitting at multi year lows. Since then the Index has been range bound. But the overall activity in the Residential real estate market has been very soft. Some recent increases in activity have been attributed to recent drops in mortgage rates. The rate on the popular 30 year fixed rate mortgage had dropped to 6.65% in March from about 7% in mid January. Home buyers seem to be acutely responsive to even slight drops in mortgage rates. Nonetheless, as mentioned above, activity in the new and existing homes market remains at multi year lows as high mortgage rate continue to crimp demand and buyers’ ability to buy homes. Activity in the spring and summer buying season will be monitored for pick up.

30th Apr 2025

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales increased sharply by 6.1% in the month of March. The Index decreased from 72.1 in February to 76.5 in March. Pending home sales had risen for 4 consecutive months from August to November. However, the index fell again from November to January sitting at multi year lows. However, the last 2 months have once again been a bit positive on the Pending Home Sales front. The surge in activity has probably been boosted by some reduction in mortgage rates. The rate on the popular 30 year fixed rate mortgage had dropped to 6.65% in March from about 7% in mid January. Home buyers seem to be acutely responsive to even slight drops in mortgage rates. Nonetheless, activity in the new and existing homes market remains at multi year lows as high mortgage rate continue to crimp demand and buyers’ ability to buy homes. Activity in the spring buying season will be monitored for pick up. Rates also also expected to gradually decline from these levels.      

27th Mar 2025

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales increased by 2.0% in the month of February. The Index decreased from 70.6 in January to 72.0 in February. Pending home sales had rise for 4 consecutive months from August to November. However, the index fell again from November to January and continues to sit at multi year lows. Activity in the new and existing homes market remains at multi year lows as high mortgage rate continue to crimp demand and buyers’ ability to buy homes. Activity in the spring buying season will be monitored for pick up. Rates also also expected to gradually decline from these levels.      

27th Feb 2025

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales decreased by 4.6% in the month of January. The Index decreased from 74.0 in December to 70.6 in January. Pending home sales had rise for 4 consecutive months from August to November. However, the index has once again fallen for the past 2 months and once again sits at multi year lows. Activity in the new and existing homes market remains at multi year lows as high mortgage rate continue to crimp demand and buyers’ ability to buy homes. The latest data might also be affected by the colder weather patters and hence a key aspect to monitor will be the pick up in the spring buying season. Rates also also expected to gradually decline from these levels.      

30th Jan 2025

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales decreased sharply by 5.5% in the month of December. The Index decreased from 78.5 in November to 74.2 in December. Pending home sales had been rising for the past 4 consecutive months. The latest decline is hence a little noteworthy. The increase seen of late in the existing home sales market after reaching multi year lows in the middle of 2024, was despite a rise in mortgage rates and continued house price unaffordability. Existing home buyers and sellers are getting more accustomed to a higher for longer rate environment and are willing to transact. Inventory has generally been rising in the existing homes markets in the US and that is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in the number of transactions in the existing homes market in the US. The higher activity in the EHS also has implications for the new homes segment since home builders now face increased competition from EHS home sellers. Moreover, new home inventory is also piling up rapidly.     

30th Dec 2024

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales increased 2.2% in the month of November. The Index increased from 77.3 in October to 79.0 in November. The latest increase in PHS makes it the 3 consecutive month of increases in the Index. The increase also beat consensus expectations of an increase of 0.9%. This is the highest level of the Index seen since March. Pending Home Sales is a forward looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings. Hence it holds importance from a market perspective. In general, activity in the EHS market has been weak in the past few months. The PHS Index had been sitting close to the lows seen in the peak of the corona virus pandemic in May 2020. However, inventory has generally been rising in the existing homes markets in the US and that is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in the number of transactions in the existing homes market in the US. Mortgage rates had come down from the earlier peak levels, though they have mostly traced their way back up since the Fed rate cut. Home prices still remain high and hence affordability continues to remain a concern. However, despite the high mortgage rates and high prices, we have seen some gradual increase of activity in the existing homes market. This also has implications for the new homes segment since home builders now face increased competition from EHS home sellers. Moreover, new home inventory is also piling up rapidly.     

27th Nov 2024

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales increased 2.0% in the month of October. The Index increased from 75.9 in September to 77.4 in October. The latest increase comes on the back of a 7.5% increase in the previous month of September. The increase also beat consensus expectations of a decrease of 2.1%. This is the highest level of the Index seen since March. Pending Home Sales is a forward looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings. Hence it holds importance from a market perspective. In general, activity in the EHS market has been weak in the past few months. The PHS Index had been sitting close to the lows seen in the peak of the corona virus pandemic in May 2020. However, inventory has generally been rising in the existing homes markets in the US and that is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in the number of transactions in the existing homes market in the US. Mortgage rates had come down from the earlier peak levels, though they have mostly traced their way back up since the Fed rate cut. Home prices still remain high and hence affordability continues to remain a concern.     

30th Oct 2024

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales bounced by 7.4% in the month of September. The Index increased from 70.6 in August to 75.8 in September. This is the highest level of the Index seen since March. Pending Home Sales is a forward looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings. Hence it holds importance from a market perspective. In general, activity in the EHS market has been weak in the past few months. The PHS Index had been sitting close to the lows seen in the peak of the corona virus pandemic in May 2020. However, inventory has generally been rising in the existing homes markets in the US and that is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in the number of transactions in the existing homes market in the US. Mortgage rates are also trending down in line with 10 year yields, even though they have traced their way back up in the past few weeks since the Fed rate cut. Home prices still remain high and hence affordability continues to remain a concern.     

26th Sep 2024

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales ticked up slightly by 0.6% in the month of August. The Index increased from 70.2 in July to 70.6 in August. In general, activity in the EHS market has been weak in the past few months. The PHS Index is sitting close to the lows seen in the peak of the corona virus pandemic in May 2020. However, inventory has generally been rising in the existing homes markets in the US and that is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in the number of transactions in the existing homes market in the US. Mortgage rates are also trending down in line with 10 year yields. Home prices still remain high and hence affordability continues to remain a concern.     

29th Aug 2024

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales decreased 5.5% in the month of July. The Index decreased from 74.3 in June to 70.2 in July. The July decrease reverses the 4.4% increase that we had seen the previous month. In general, activity in the EHS market has been weak in the past few months. The PHS Index is sitting close to the lows seen in the peak of the corona virus pandemic in May 2020. However, inventory has generally been rising in the existing homes markets in the US and that is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in the number of transactions in the existing homes market in the US. Mortgage rates are also trending down in line with 10 year yields.    

31st Jul 2024

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales increased 4.8% in the month of June. The Index increased from 70.8 in May to 74.3 in June. Activity in the EHS market has been weak in the past few months. The PHS Index was sitting at close to the lows seen in the peak of the corona virus pandemic in May 2020. Hence the latest increase is a welcome sign. All 4 regions posted an increase in PHS. Inventory has generally been rising in the US and that is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in the number of transactions in the existing homes market in the US.   

27th Jun 2024

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales fell 2.1% in the month of May.The Index decreased from 72.3 in April to 70.8 in May. The latest drop comes on the back of a sharp 7% drop seen the previous month in March. The Index now sits at close the low seen in the peak of the corona virus pandemic in May 2020. This does not bode well for activity in the Existing Home Sales market. The first half of 2024 has been about a moderating existing and new home sales market in the US and in contradiction continued rising home prices. However, gradually inventory has been returning to the Existing Home Sales market and there also seems to be a build up on inventory in the New Home Sales market. With rates projected to go down, we might see balance returning to the US residential market with higher activity and a lower price rise in the 2nd half of 2024.  

30th May 2024

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of the health of the US housing market. The latest PHS release from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales fell a sharp 7.7% in the month of April.The Index decreased from a marginally revised 78.3 in March to 72.3 in April. The US Residential home market was off to a decent start in 2024. Pending Home Sales increased a substantial 8.3% in December at 77.3 compared to November. However, mortgage rates have since increased in line with the increase in treasury yields. Even though more number of sellers are coming to the market and inventory is increasing relative to recent years, high mortgage rates and housing affordability issues are keeping the lid on home purchase transactions. Home sales in the existing home sales market are off their recent lows but still remain weak compared to historical averages. The Pending Home Sales Index also paints a similar picture where the Index is rising of late but remains low compared to historical levels. Moreover, there also seems to be a rising glut of inventory in the new homes market.  

25th Apr 2024

Key takeaway: The US Residential home market was off to a decent start in 2024. Pending Home Sales increased a substantial 8.3% in December at 77.3 compared to November. However, the Pending Home Sales Index had posted a 4.9% drop in January. The Index was back in positive territory posting a 1.6% increase in February and that trend continued with a strong 3.4% increase in March. The PHS Index after having fallen through 2022 had mostly levelled off in 2023. Mortgage rates came off towards the end of the year and activity has now started picking back up again in existing home sales market. Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of home sales since they are recorded when the contracts are signed instead of when the home sales is completed. While modest sales growth might not stir excitement, it shows slow and steady progress towards a more balanced US residential real estate market. As existing home owners get used to the new norm of higher interest rates, they are more willing to list their houses for sales . Most private real estate data (Zillow, Realtor, etc) have also started to indicate a modest rise in new and total listings compared to last year. These inventory levels though, still remain below pre-pandemic averages. 

28th Mar 2024

Key takeaway: The US Residential home market was off to a decent start in 2024. Pending Home Sales increased a substantial 8.3% in December at 77.3 compared to November. However, the Pending Home Sales Index had posted a 4.9% drop in January. The Index was back in positive territory posting a 1.6% increase in February. The PHS Index after having fallen through 2022 had mostly levelled off in 2023. Mortgage rates came off towards the end of the year and activity has now started picking back up again in existing home sales market. Pending Home Sales are said to be a leading indicator of home sales since they are recorded when the contracts are signed instead of when the home sales is completed. While modest sales growth might not stir excitement, it shows slow and steady progress towards a more balanced US residential real estate market.    

26th Jan 2024

Key takeaway: The US Residential home market was off to a decent start in 2024. Pending Home Sales increased a substantial 8.3% in December at 77.3 compared to November. The PHS Index after having fallen through 2022 had mostly levelled off in 2023 and the latest read shows an increase back upwards. The current readings of the Index though continue to remain amongst the lowest since it was introduced in 2001! An Index level of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. However, a number of indicators in the US residential market have started to indicate that the sales trough might have bottomed. With mortgage rates coming down over the past couple of months, activity seems to be returning to the Existing Home Sales market. Existing Home Owners seem to be acknowledging the current rate environment and are more willing to list their homes for sale. The NAHB Home Builders Confidence Index has also registered some increases in the past couple of months. Both, increased housing inventory and lower interest rates are seen as critical factors for a better performing US residential real estate market.   

28th Dec 2023

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales was unchanged in November at 71.6 compared to October. The PHS Index after having fallen through 2022 had mostly levelled off in 2023. The current readings of the Index though are amongst the lowest since it was introduced in 2001! An Index level of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. On a y-o-y basis, pending transactions declined 5.2%. Some of the other indicators on the US residential sector in recent times – including the NAHB home builders confidence index – have also been falling. The shortage of inventory in existing homes has been a key feature in this market which has kept the new homes market going strong. However, with mortgage rates having recently touched 8% and even with the drop in interest rates in the past 4 weeks, un-affordability is once again the dominant factor in the sector. Both, increased housing inventory and lower interest rates are seen as critical factors for a better performing US residential real estate market.   

30th Nov 2023

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales decreased 1.5% in October, resuming the mostly declining trend in the Index. This was a reversal from the 1.1% increase seen last month. In summary though, activity in the existing home sales market is at a low not seen in many years. The Pending Home Sales Index was at 71.4 in October. This is the lowest reading of the Index since it was introduced in 2001! An Index level of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. On a y-o-y basis, pending transactions declined 8.5%. Some of the other indicators on the US residential sector in recent times – including the NAHB home builders confidence index – have also been falling. The shortage of inventory in existing homes has been a key feature in this market which has kept the new homes market going strong. However, with mortgage rates having recently touched 8% and even with the drop in interest rates in the past 4 weeks, un-affordability is once again the dominant factor in the sector. Both, increased housing inventory and lower interest rates are seen as critical factors for a better performing US residential real estate market.   

26th Oct 2023

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales increased in September, up 1.1% from August. This was a reversal from a sharp drop seen in the earlier month of 7.1%. Yet, even with the small rise this month, the residential sales market continues to remain soft. Some of the other indicators on the US residential sector in recent times – including the NAHB home builders confidence index – have also been falling. The shortage of inventory in existing homes has been a key feature in this market which has kept the new homes market going strong. However, with mortgage rates now above 8%, un-affordability is once again the dominant factor in the sector. Both, increased housing inventory and lower interest rates are seen as critical factors for a better performing US residential real estate market.  On the other hand, it was also worth noting that the latest September New Home Sales data from the Census Bureau had surprised to the upside. 

28th Sep 2023

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales registered a big slump of 7.1% in August. The Index decreased from 77.3 in July to 71.8 in August. The sharp drop is not surprising and in line with some of the other indicators on the US residential sector in recent times – including the NAHB home builders confidence index. The shortage of inventory in existing homes has been a key feature in this market which has kept the new homes market going strong. However, with mortgage rates well above 7%, un-affordability is once again the dominant factor in the sector. Both, increased housing inventory and lower interest rates are seen as critical factors for a better performing US residential real estate market.  

30th Aug 2023

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales registered an increase of 0.9% in July, up from +0.3% in June. The Index increased from 76.9 in June to 77.6 in July. The shortage of inventory in existing homes has been a key feature in this market, coupled with significantly higher mortgage rates and reduced buyer affordability. Pending home sales are generally considered to be a leading indicator – compared to existing home sales. While the current pending home sales trend can be taken as an indicator of a continuing weak existing home sales market, it is also key to note that the Index has bottomed since the end of 2022 and is off the lows currently. All other indicators of the US housing market have also been suggesting a bottoming of the US housing downturn. 

27th Jul 2023

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales registered a modest increase of 0.3% in June, up from negative 2.5% from May. The Index increased from 76.6 in May to 76.8 in June. The shortage of inventory in existing homes has been a key feature in this market, coupled with significantly higher mortgage rates and reduced buyer affordability. Pending home sales are generally considered to be a leading indicator – compared to existing home sales. While the current pending home sales trend can be taken as an indicator of a continuing weak existing home sales market, it is also key to note that the Index has bottomed since the end of 2022 and is off the lows currently. All other indicators of the US housing market have also been suggesting a bottoming of the US housing downturn. 

29th Jun 2023

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales dropped in May, down 2.7% from April. The Index fell from a downwardly revised 78.6 in April to 76.5 in May. Pending home sales are now 22% below the same period last year. The shortage of inventory in the existing homes has been a key feature in this market, coupled with significantly higher mortgage rates and reduced buyer affordability. Given that pending home sales are considered to be a leading indicator – compared to existing home sales – the current pending home sales trend is still indicative of a weak existing home sales market and can be taken as an indicator of a continuing weak existing home sales market.

26th May 2023

Key takeaway: Pending Home Sales recorded no change in April. The Index remained at 78.9. Hence, there wasn’t much to note on a month to month basis. However, the big picture story remains the same. Pending home sales are significantly below pre-pandemic averages. The shortage of inventory in the existing homes has been a key feature in this market, coupled with significantly higher mortgage rates and reduced buyer affordability. Given that pending home sales are considered to be a leading indicator – compared to existing home sales – the current pending home sales trend is still indicative of a weak existing home sales market.  can be taken to be an indicator of continuing slowdown in the existing home sales market.

27th Apr 2023

Key takeaway: The Pending Home Sales Index unexpectedly tumbled in March after rising for the previous consecutive 3 months. The data though unexpected is not entirely surprising. The shortage of inventory in the existing homes has been a key feature in this market, coupled with significantly higher mortgage rates and reduced buyer affordability. Given that pending home sales are considered to be a leading indicator – compared to existing home sales – the current data point can be taken to be an indicator of continuing slowdown in the existing home sales market.

29th Mar 2023

Key takeaway: Pending home sales improved in Feb for a 3rd month in a row. Although the gain was not very large (0.8% m-o-m), it was still higher than consensus expectations (minus 2.3%) and on the back of a big 8.1% gain in Jan 2023. Mortgage rates had eased off in January and early Feb only to climb back up again in the second half of Feb. The housing market, after a disastrous second half of 2022, is showing multiple signs of stabilization and this latest release of pending home sales also attests to that. The different picture emerging in the west and east was also evidenced by increases in the 3 US regions (north-east, mid-west and south) and declines in the west.

The Pending Homes Sales Index, published by the National Association of Realtors, is a leading indicator for the housing sector. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed. The sale usually closes within one or two months of signing. The NAR measures and releases the pending home sales report towards the end of the next month. .

NAR Research