US Macro Updates

The One Stop Portal for US Macroeconomic Data. Simplified and Summarized! 

We simplify and summarize key data so that you don’t have to spend hours reading confusing and long media releases. Read key economic releases and major events here in under 2 minutes. And we will explain the key takeaway for you. Stay informed and form a robust view on macroeconomic matters to aid your successful investment decisions

Employment Cost Index

[ai_eciwag_chart months=36]

9th Aug 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: The Employment Cost Index is widely regarded as the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of labour cost pressures because, unlike average hourly earnings, it controls for compositional shifts in the workforce, meaning changes in the index reflect genuine movements in compensation rather than fluctuations driven by hiring patterns across high- or low-wage sectors. Over the past several quarters, ECI wages and salaries growth has remained stubbornly elevated relative to pre-pandemic norms, reflecting persistent tightness in labour markets and workers retaining meaningful bargaining power even as broader economic momentum has moderated. The April 2026 reading of 179.01 represents a 0.85% monthly gain, which on an annualised basis runs well above levels consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target when accounting for trend productivity growth. This pace of wage inflation keeps upward pressure on services prices, particularly in labour-intensive sectors, complicating the Fed’s efforts to declare a durable return to price stability. For workers, nominal wage gains at this level offer some support for real income growth, though the net benefit depends heavily on where consumer price inflation settles in coming months. Fed policymakers will be closely scrutinising this reading as evidence that labour market conditions have not loosened sufficiently to warrant near-term rate cuts. Sustained ECI momentum at or above this level is likely to reinforce a higher-for-longer stance on the federal funds rate heading into the second half of 2026.

ECI – Wages & Salaries increased 0.85% in Apr to 179.01.

2nd May 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: The Employment Cost Index is widely regarded as the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of labour cost pressures because, unlike average hourly earnings, it controls for compositional shifts in the workforce, meaning changes in the mix of industries or occupations do not distort the underlying wage trend. Over the past several quarters, ECI wages and salaries growth has gradually moderated from the elevated readings seen in 2022 and early 2023, though progress has remained uneven and the pace of deceleration has slowed more recently. The January 2026 reading of 177.5, representing a 0.72% monthly gain, suggests that wage growth remains firm and has not yet cooled to a pace fully consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target. On an annualised basis, a monthly gain of this magnitude points to underlying labour cost pressures that could sustain services inflation, which the Fed continues to monitor closely. For workers, nominal wage gains at this level are supportive of real income growth provided consumer price inflation remains contained, though the balance between the two will be critical to watch in coming months. From a monetary policy perspective, a reading of this strength is unlikely to encourage the Fed to accelerate rate cuts, and may reinforce a cautious, data-dependent approach to any further easing. Markets will be watching subsequent ECI releases closely to determine whether January’s firmness represents a renewed acceleration or simply seasonal noise in an otherwise softening trend.

ECI – Wages & Salaries increased 0.72% in Jan to 177.5.

ECI – Wages & Salaries – January 2026: +0.72% (177.50)

 

10th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: The latest Employment Cost Index data for Q4 2025 showed compensation costs of civilian workers increased 0.7% seasonally adjusted. Wages and salaries increased 0.7% and benefits increased 0.7% from September 2025. Compensation costs increased 3.4% in the 12 month period ending December 2025. The ECI is considered to be the gold standard in assessing wage price pressures in the economy. and is closely monitored by the Fed and they take significant comfort from softer numbers in the ECP print. The ECI Index has mostly been falling since reaching a peak of 1.4% q-o-q in early 2022. Yet, at an annual rate of 3.4%, the compensation increase is still higher than pre-pandemic averages of around 3% which were thought to be consistent with a 2% inflation target. However, the trendline seems to continue downward. The latest print was also lower than expectations. Given that inflation is still holding up around the 3% level, a lower trending nominal wage growth means that real wages are either declining or not growing as much. Employment data also has generally been trending downwards. It was no surprise that treasury yields fell in immediate response. A weaker than expected retail sales print for December also contributed to a fall in treasury yields.  

10th Dec 2025

Key takeaway: The latest Employment Cost Index data for Q3 2025 showed compensation costs of civilian workers increased 0.8% seasonally adjusted. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefits increased 0.8% from June 2025. Compensation costs increased 3.5% in the 12 month period ending September 2025. The ECI is considered to be the gold standard in assessing wage price pressures in the economy. and is closely monitored by the Fed and they take significant comfort from softer numbers in the ECP print. The ECI Index has mostly been falling since reaching a peak of 1.4% q-o-q in early 2022. Yet, at an annual rate of 3.6%, the compensation increase is still higher than pre-pandemic averages of around 3% which were thought to be consistent with a 2% inflation target. However, should the downward trend continue, the ECI should be back within the 3% level in the short term. There are signs of the labour market weakening and the ECI data is in line with a looser labour market compared to a few years back. 

31st Jul 2025

Key takeaway: The latest Employment Cost Index data for Q2 2025 showed compensation costs of civilian workers increased 0.9% seasonally adjusted. Wages and salaries increased 1.0% and benefits increased 0.7% from March 2025. Compensation costs increased 3.6% in the 12 month period ending June 2025. The ECI is considered to be the gold standard in assessing wage price pressures in the economy. and is closely monitored by the Fed and they take significant comfort from softer numbers in the ECP print. The ECI Index has mostly been falling since reaching a peak of 1.4% q-o-q in early 2022. While the latest release has compensation costs increasing slightly more than consensus expectations, the trend over the past couple of years has been lower. Yet, at an annual rate of 3.6%, the compensation increase is still higher than pre-pandemic averages of around 3% which were thought to be consistent with a 2% inflation target. 

30th Apr 2025

Key takeaway: The latest Employment Cost Index data for Q1 2025 showed compensation costs of civilian workers increased 0.9% seasonally adjusted. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefits increased 1.2% from December 2024. Compensation costs increased 3.6% in the 12 month period ending March 2025. The ECI is considered to be the gold standard in assessing wage price pressures in the economy. and is closely monitored by the Fed and they take significant comfort from softer numbers in the ECP print. The ECI Index has mostly been falling since reaching a peak of 1.4% q-o-q in early 2022. However, the latest release showed the % increase in compensation costs held steady at 0.9% in 1Q 2025 compared to the previous quarter. At the same time, on a y-o-y basis, compensation costs slowed from 3.8% in December 2024 to 3.6% in March 2025. Yet, at an annual rate of 3.6%, the compensation increase is still higher than pre-pandemic averages of around 3% which were thought to be consistent with a 2% inflation target. 

31st Jan 2025

Key takeaway: The latest Employment Cost Index data for Q4 2024 showed compensation costs of civilian workers increased 0.9% seasonally adjusted. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefits increased 0.8% from September 2024. Compensation costs increased 3.8% in the 12 month period ending December 2024. The ECI is considered to be the gold standard in assessing wage price pressures in the economy. and is closely monitored by the Fed and they take significant comfort from softer numbers in the ECP print. The ECI Index has mostly been falling since reaching a peak of 1.4% q-o-q in early 2022. However, the latest release showed the % increase in compensations costs rose by 0.9% compared to 0.8% in 3Q 2024. While this difference is not large, it does give an indication that the decline in ECI has stalled. At an annual rate of 3.8%, the compensation increase is higher than pre-pandemic averages of around 3% which were thought to be consistent with a 2% inflation target. 

31st Oct 2024

Key takeaway: The latest Employment Cost Index data for Q3 2024 showed compensation costs of civilian workers increased 0.8% seasonally adjusted. Wages and salaries increased 0.8% and benefits increased 0.8% from June 2024. Compensation costs increased 3.9% in the 12 month period ending September 2024. The ECI is considered to be the gold standard in assessing wage price pressures in the economy. The latest print shows a continuing declining trend in compensation costs and hence provides the Fed comfort that there are no signs of a wage price spiral. The latest print was also slightly lower than consensus expectations. The ECI is closely monitored by the Fed and they take significant comfort from softer numbers in the ECP print. 

31st Jul 2024

Key takeaway: The latest Employment Cost Index data for Q2 2024 showed compensation costs of civilian workers increased 0.9% seasonally adjusted. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefits increased 1.0% from March 2024. Compensation costs increased 4.1% in the 12 month period ending June 2024. The ECI is considered to be the gold standard in assessing wage price pressures in the economy. Similar to previous releases, there are a few key points to note. The latest print shows a sharp drop from the 1.2% in the previous quarter. The ECI is closely monitored by the Fed and they take significant comfort from softer numbers in the ECP print. Chair Powell even made a reference to the soft ECI print in the latest Fed meeting conference. The lower ECI print dragged government bond yields lower on a day that also saw soft ADP payroll numbers for July. 

30th Apr 2024

Key takeaway: The latest Employment Cost Index data for Q1 2024 showed compensation costs of civilian workers increased 1.2% seasonally adjusted. Wages and salaries increased 1.1% and benefits increased 1.1% from December 2023. Compensation costs increased 4.2% in the 12 month period ending March 2023. The ECI is considered to be the gold standard in assessing wage price pressures in the economy. Similar to previous releases, there are a few key points to note. Unlike last quarter, the print came in a fair bit higher than expectations which had called for a 1.0% increase. Relatively strong economic data for the past 3-6 months and hotter-than-expected inflation prints have caused a surge in nominal bond yields. Consumer expectations of medium and long term inflation expectations, even though well anchored, continue to remain above pre-pandemic levels. All these factors together are causing angst in the markets, particularly from the perspective of future path of monetary policy a.k.a when will rate cuts actually materialize?! In this backdrop, a higher than expected ECI print is very noteworthy. Powell’s speech on Fed day when he clearly ruled out any rate hikes and a softer than expected headline Q1 GDP print have probably offset the effect ECI would have otherwise had on yields. Yet, it is also key to remember that even though this ECI print was hot, there still don’t seem to be wage price spiral pressures in the economy. Lastly, inflation adjusted compensation costs have now been above 0% for most of 2023 and the year so far. This should also continue to put upward pressure on inflation. However, this number (+0.8%) is also in line with pre-pandemic levels (when inflation was relatively stable and below the Fed’s target)

31st Jan 2024

Key takeaway: The latest Employment Cost Index data for Q4 2023 showed compensation costs of civilian workers increased 0.9% seasonally adjusted. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% and benefits increased 0.7% from September 2023. Compensation costs increased 4.2% in the 12 month period ending December 2023. The ECI is considered to be the gold standard in assessing wage price pressures in the economy. Similar to previous releases, there are a few key points to note. Unlike last quarter, the print came in slightly lower than expectations which had called for a 1.0% increase. Coupled with a weak ADP jobs print released a few minutes earlier the same day, the reception to the softer ECI data was decidedly more bearish. More importantly, at 4.2% y-o-y, the ECI is still substantially higher than pre-pandemic averages of around 2.0-3.0% but coming down from the highs of 5% seen through most of 2022. However, even though the number remains higher than pre-pandemic averages, softer CPI and PCE numbers for the past several months have reduced the risk or weightage that the Fed would have otherwise assigned to a 4.2% ECI number. There just don’t seem to be wage price spiral pressures in the economy. Similarly, it is also key to look at real wage increases compared to nominal wage increases. For instance, the y-o-y ECI increase on a nominal basis was 4.2% in December 2023 compared to 5.1% in December 2022. However on a real basis, the y-o-y change in ECI was 0.9% in December 2023 compared to -1.3% in December 2022. This leaves consumers with more real purchasing power and hence can keep the fire burning under the strong consumption story. It is also important to note that this constant dollar y-o-y change has in fact increased from 0.6% in September 2023 to 0.9% in December 2023.  

31st Oct 2023

Key takeaway: The latest Employment Cost Index data for Q3 2023 showed compensation costs of civilian workers increased 1.1% seasonally adjusted. Wages and salaries increased 1.2% and benefits increased 0.9% from June 2023. Compensation costs increased 4.3% in the 12 month period ending September 2023. The ECI is considered to be the gold standard in assessing wage price pressures in the economy. There are a few key points to note. First, the print came in slightly higher than expectations which had called for a 1.0% increase. More importantly, at 4.3% y-o-y, the ECI is still substantially higher than pre-pandemic averages of around 2.0-3.0% and hence indicative of wage price inflationary pressures in the economy. However, the most important point in my view, is the real wage increase compared to the nominal wage increase. For instance, the y-o-y ECI increase on a nominal basis was 4.3% in September 2023 compared to 5.0% in September 2022. However on a real basis, the y-o-y change in ECI was 0.6% in September 2023 compared to -2.9% in September 2022. This leaves consumers with more real purchasing power and hence can keep the fire burning under the strong consumption story. It is equally important though to note that this constant dollar y-o-y change has moderated from 1.6% in June 2023 to 0.6% in September 2023.  

28th July 2023

Key takeaway: The latest Employment Cost Index data for Q2 2023 showed compensation costs of civilian workers increased 1.0% seasonally adjusted. Wages and salaries increased 1.0% and benefits increased 0.9% from March 2023. Compensation costs increased 4.5% in the 12 month period ending June 2023. The ECI is considered to be the gold standard in assessing wage price pressures in the economy. Hence, there was relief in the markets when this number came in below expectations. The ECI has moderated significantly from its highs of 1.4% in early 2022. However, it is still above pre-pandemic averages and still indicative of an annual 4%+ wage growth, which is above the comfort threshold of the Federal Reserve. 

The Employment Cost Index measures the change in the hourly labor cost to employers over time. The ECI used a fixed “basket” of labor to produce a pure cost change, free from the effects of workers moving between occupations and industries and includes both the cost of wages and salaries and the cost of benefits. It is usually considered the gold standard for understanding the underlying wage growth trends in the economy. The ECI is a quarterly number and is released at the end of about one month from the end of the quarter.

Employment Cost Index – BLS