US Macro Updates

Key takeaway: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for July 2026, released on July 28, showed sentiment slipping for a third straight month as current conditions kept eroding. The headline index fell 1.4 points to 90.8 — below the roughly 92.3 consensus forecast and down from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June. The weakness was concentrated in the Present Situation Index, which dropped 3.6 points to 114.9, its third consecutive monthly decline, as consumers grew less positive about both current business conditions and, to a lesser extent, the labor market. The Expectations Index held unchanged at 74.7, remaining below the 80 threshold historically associated with recession risk, where it has sat since February 2025 — though labor-market expectations ticked slightly less negative even as views on business conditions stayed dim. Inflation expectations offered a modest bright spot: both average and median 12-month readings eased from June, retracing some of their recent spike, though the Conference Board did not publish exact figures. The July 1–22 survey window overlapped with the ongoing Middle East conflict; mentions of war and geopolitics actually eased during the period, while references to food and grocery prices grew more frequent. Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson said confidence “moderated slightly in July, continuing a general downward sloping trajectory since late 2021,” with consumers expecting little improvement in business conditions over the next six months. With present-conditions readings now falling for three straight months and expectations still mired in recession-signal territory, the report adds to the case that labor-market softening — not inflation alone — is becoming the dominant drag on household sentiment heading into the back half of the year.

• • The Index increased to 91.2 in Jul from 92.2 in Jun. Expectations were 94.4

30th Jun 2026

Key takeaway: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for June 2026, released June 30, showed a modest headline improvement masking further softening in how consumers view the current labor market. The index inched up 0.6 points to 91.2, up from a downwardly revised 90.6 in May but well short of the 94.4 consensus forecast — still among the lowest readings of the past year. The Present Situation Index fell 3.0 points to 116.4 as the labor market differential — jobs “plentiful” minus jobs “hard to get” — dropped 2.6 percentage points to just +2.4%, its lowest level in more than five years, with the share calling jobs “hard to get” rising to 22.5%, the highest since January 2021. The Expectations Index rose 3.0 points to 74.4 on improving views of business conditions and household income, but remained below the 80 threshold that has historically signaled recession risk within a year — a level it has held below since February 2025. Inflation expectations were less elevated, and the share of consumers anticipating higher interest rates over the next year slipped to 61.5% from 62.4% in May, with write-in commentary showing softer references to prices, oil, and geopolitical conflict as an extended US-Iran ceasefire took hold during the survey window. Consumers’ assessment of their current finances deteriorated for a third straight month even as their outlook for future finances turned more optimistic. “Consumer confidence inched up in June as falling oil prices in recent weeks provided some relief to consumer inflation fears,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, though she noted labor market perceptions “softened measurably.” With current labor-market sentiment deteriorating even as expectations firm modestly, the report points to a consumer taking some comfort from cooling energy prices and easing geopolitical risk while remaining wary on jobs.

• • The Index increased to 90.8 in Jul from 90.6 in May. Expectations were 92.3

26th May 2026

Key takeaway: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for May 2026, released on May 26, edged lower for the first time in four months but beat expectations, landing at 93.1 against a consensus of 92.0 — down just 0.7 points from April’s upwardly revised 93.8, the strongest reading of the year. The pullback was entirely concentrated in the Present Situation Index, which fell 3.2 points to 121.2, as the share of consumers describing current business conditions as “good” dropped to 18.5% from 22.3% in April. The Expectations Index rose 1.0 point to 74.4, showing modest improvement in the outlook for business and labour conditions over the next six months, though it remains below the 80-point threshold historically associated with elevated recession risk — a level it has been below since February 2025. Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations ticked downward but remained elevated, with nearly 50% of respondents expecting interest rates to be higher over the next 12 months. Two-thirds of consumers reported cutting back on spending due to rising prices, with most buying fewer items and delaying expensive purchases, and write-in responses skewed pessimistic for a second consecutive month, with references to prices, oil and gas, and war-related concerns all remaining elevated.

• • The Index decreased to 93.1 in May from 93.8 in Apr. Expectations were 91.9

28th Apr 2026

Key takeaway: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for April 2026, released April 28, delivered a third consecutive surprise to the upside. The index edged up 0.6 points to 92.8 — the highest reading of the year — well above the consensus forecast of 89.0 and following an upwardly revised 92.2 in March. The survey period covered April 1–22, a window that included the temporary two-week ceasefire in the Middle East conflict beginning April 8 and the subsequent rebound in US equities. The Present Situation Index retreated marginally by 0.3 points to 123.8, while the forward-looking Expectations Index rose 1.2 points to 72.2. The labour market was the key positive driver: the share of consumers saying jobs are plentiful exceeded those saying they are hard to get by a four-month high differential of 7.5%, up from 6.1% in March — a signal that argues against a rise in the April unemployment rate. However, the resilient headline masks deep underlying anxiety. Conference Board chief economist Dana Peterson noted that write-in responses continued to skew towards pessimism, with comments about prices, oil, gas, and war increasing in frequency compared to March. Critically, the Expectations Index has now been below the 80 threshold that historically signals recession risk within the next 12 months for 14 consecutive months — a persistent warning sign that sits uneasily alongside the headline’s apparent resilience.

• • The Index increased to 92.8 in Apr from 92.2 in Mar. Expectations were 89.0

31st Mar 2026

Key takeaway: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for March 2026, released on March 31, came in at a better-than-expected reading. The index edged higher to 91.8, beating the consensus expectation of 87.8 and marking a second consecutive modest gain. The Present Situation Index — which reflects consumers’ views of current business and labor market conditions — rose 4.6 points to 123.3, while the forward-looking Expectations Index slipped 1.7 points to 70.9. The headline improvement, however, masks significant undercurrents of concern. The Expectations Index remains below the 80 threshold often associated with recession risk, and consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations surged to levels last seen in August 2025, when tariff announcements were pending. Though not fully reflected in the headline figures, the weight of rising costs from tariff pass-through and spiking oil prices was evident in supplementary survey measures. On spending intentions, consumer trends in 2026 remain focused on “cheap thrills” and necessary services, with plans for discretionary spending shifting from “yes” to “no” across most categories. In summary, the March report paints a picture of a consumer who feels reasonably secure in the present but is growing increasingly anxious about what lies ahead.

• • The Index increased to 91.8 in Mar from 91.0 in Feb. Expectations were 87.8

24th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: The dichotomy in Consumer sentiment and actual consumer spending continues unabated. Consumer confidence remains low compared to recent highs seen in late 2024 as well as compared to pre-covid averages. The latest data for February showed some recovery in confidence after the headline index had weakened for the 6 consecutive months. The headline index increased from 89.0 in January to 91.2 in February. Consumer confidence had mostly risen post the November Presidential elections. However, consumer confidence collapsed sharply in April on the back of liberation day tariff measures and the consequent meltdown in markets. Ironically, even though consumer sentiment has been weakening, hard data still suggests a very resilient economy. GDP growth has remained strong with the economy having grown about 2-3% in 2025. Personal consumption has also still remained robust. The Present Situation Index decreased by 1.8 points to 120.0 in February. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index increased by 4.8 points to 72.0. The index still remains below 80. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 2 years. It had been higher than 80 for a period of a few months in end 2024. However, the index has now slipped back again well below 80. Overall the index still remains substantially lower compared to the start of 2025.

• • The Index increased to 91.2 in Feb from 89.0 in Jan. Expectations were 87.4

27th Jan 2026

Key takeaway: The dichotomy in Consumer sentiment and actual consumer spending continues unabated. Consumer confidence indexes have been falling of late. The latest data for January showed confidence weakened for the 6th consecutive month with the headline index falling by 9.7 points in January to 84.5. Consumer confidence had mostly risen post the November Presidential elections. However, consumer confidence collapsed sharply in April on the back of liberation day tariff measures and the consequent meltdown in markets. Ironically, even though consumer sentiment has been weakening, hard data still suggests a very resilient economy. GDP growth has remained strong with the economy having grown about 2-3% in 2025. The latest Atlanta Fed GDP tracker shows 4Q 2025 GDP growth at approx. 5%. Personal consumption has also still remained robust. The Present Situation Index decreased by 9.9 points to 113.7. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index also fell by 9.5 points to 65.1. The index still remains below 80. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 2 years. It had been higher than 80 for a period of a few months in end 2024. However, the index has now slipped back again well below 80. Overall the index still remains substantially lower compared to the start of 2025.

• • The Index decreased to 84.5 in Jan from 94.2 in Dec. Expectations were 90.6

23rd Dec 2025

Key takeaway: The dichotomy in Consumer sentiment and actual consumer spending continues unabated. Consumer confidence indexes have been falling of late. The latest data for December showed confidence weakened for the 5th consecutive month with the headline index falling by 3.8 points in December to 89.1. Consumer confidence had mostly risen post the November Presidential elections. However, consumer confidence collapsed sharply in April on the back of liberation day tariff measures and the consequent meltdown in markets. Ironically, even though consumer sentiment has been weakening, hard data still suggests a very resilient economy. GDP growth has remained strong with the economy having grown about 2-3% in 2025. Personal consumption has still remained robust. The Present Situation Index decreased by 9.5 points to 116.8. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index held mostly steady at 70.7. The index still remains below 80. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 18 months. It had been higher than 80 for a period of a few months in end 2024. However, the index has now slipped back again well below 80. Overall the index still remains substantially lower compared to the start of the year.

• • The Index decreased to 89.1 in Dec from 92.9 in Nov. Expectations were 91.7

26th Nov 2025

Key takeaway: Consumer confidence indexes have been falling of late, with the headline index falling in August and September. Consumer confidence had mostly risen post the November Presidential elections. However, consumer confidence collapsed sharply in April on the back of liberation day tariff measures and the consequent meltdown in markets. Ironically, even though consumer sentiment has been weakening, hard data still suggests a very resilient economy. GDP growth has remained strong with the economy on pact to grow about 2-3% in 2025. Personal consumption has still remained robust. The latest survey for November showed consumer confidence declined sharply once again after having been steady the previous month of October. The headline index decreased sharply by 6.8 points to 88.7 from an upwardly revised October figure. The Present Situation Index decreased by 4.3 points to 126.9. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index decreased by 8.6 points to 63.2. The index still remains below 80. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 18 months. It had been higher than 80 for a period of a few months in end 2024. However, the index has now slipped back again well below 80. Overall the index still remains substantially lower compared to the start of the year. Consumer average 12 month inflation expectations remained elevated and the median rate increased to 4.8% in November.

• • The Index decreased to 88.7 in Oct from 95.5 in Oct. Expectations were 93.3

28th Oct 2025

Key takeaway: Consumer confidence indexes have been falling of late, with the headline index falling in August and September. Consumer confidence had mostly risen post the November Presidential elections. However, consumer confidence collapsed sharply in April on the back of liberation day tariff measures and the consequent meltdown in markets. Ironically, even though consumer sentiment has been weakening, hard data still suggests a very resilient economy. GDP growth has remained strong with the economy on pact to grow about 2-3% in 2025. Personal consumption has still remained robust. The latest survey for October had consumer confidence mostly moving sideways. The headline index decreased marginally by 1.0 points to 94.6 from an upwardly revised September figure. The Present Situation Index increased by 1.8 points to 129.3. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index decreased by 2.9 points to 71.5. The index still remains below 80. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 18 months. It had been higher than 80 for a period of a few months in end 2024. However, the index has now slipped back again well below 80. Overall the index still remains substantially lower compared to the start of the year. Consumer expectations of 1 year ahead inflation inched slightly up from 5.8% in September to 5.9% in October.

• • The Index decreased to 94.6 in Oct from 95.6 in Sep. Expectations were 93.4

30th Sep 2025

Key takeaway: Consumer confidence indexes have been falling of late, especially over the past couple of months. Consumer confidence had mostly risen post the November Presidential elections. However, consumer confidence collapsed sharply in April on the back of liberation day tariff measures and the consequent meltdown in markets. Ironically, even though consumer sentiment has been weakening, hard data still suggest a very resilient economy. In fact the latest GDP data was revised further upwards with the economy growing at about 3% in the second quarter and personal consumption still robust. The latest survey for September once again had consumer confidence decreasing, with the headline index decreasing 3.6 points to 94.2. The Present Situation Index decreased by 7.0 points to 125.4. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index also decreased by 1.3 points to 73.4. The index still remains below 80. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 18 months. It had been higher than 80 for a period of a few months in end 2024. However, the index has now slipped back again well below 80. Overall the index still remains substantially lower compared to the start of the year. Consumer expectations of 1 year ahead inflation inched down from 6.2% in August to 5.8% in September.

• • The Index decreased to 94.2 in Sep from 97.8 in Aug. Expectations were 96.0

26th Aug 2025

Key takeaway: Consumer confidence indexes had mostly risen post the November Presidential elections. However, over the past few months consumer confidence measures had absolutely collapsed due to tariff related uncertainties and expectations of a surge in inflation. The Fed faced a conundrum where soft data like these consumer surveys pointed to a sharp slowdown, but hard data was still reflective of a resilient economy. In the last Fed meeting concluded in June, the Fed chose to ignore the soft survey data and took hawkish stance given the expectations of a surge in inflation. Post the tariff rollbacks and pauses, markets have dramatically changed course and equities are once again close to highs. Given this sharp reversal, consumer surveys have also started posting better results. The latest survey for August was little changed. Consumer confidence decreased slightly by 1.3 points to 97.4. The Present Situation Index decreased by 1.6 points to 131.2. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index also decreased by 1.2 points to 74.8. The index still remains below 80. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 18 months. It had been higher than 80 for a period of a few months in end 2024. However, the index has now slipped back again well below 80. Overall the index still remains substantially lower compared to the start of the year. Consumer expectations of 1 year ahead inflation increased from 5.7% in July to 6.2% in July.

• • The Index decreased to 97.4 in Aug from 98.7 in Jul. Expectations were 96.4

29th Jul 2025

Key takeaway: Consumer confidence indexes had mostly risen post the November Presidential elections. However, over the past few months consumer confidence measures had absolutely collapsed due to tariff related uncertainties and expectations of a surge in inflation. The Fed faced a conundrum where soft data like these consumer surveys pointed to a sharp slowdown, but hard data was still reflective of a resilient economy. In the last Fed meeting concluded in June, the Fed chose to ignore the soft survey data and took hawkish stance given the expectations of a surge in inflation. It is in this backdrop that market participants are keenly watching the outcomes on these consumer surveys. Post the tariff rollbacks and pauses, markets have dramatically changed course and equities are once again close to highs. Given this sharp reversal, consumer surveys have also started posting better results. The latest survey for July shows consumer confidence rose slightly by 2 points to 97.2. The Present Situation Index decreased by 1.5 points to 131.5. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index also rose by 4.5 points to 74.4. The index still remains below 80. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 18 months. It had been higher than 80 for a period of a few months in end 2024. However, the index has now slipped back again well below 80. Overall the index still remains substantially lower compared to the start of the year. Consumer expectations of 1 year ahead inflation eased from 5.9% in June to 5.8% in July.

• • The Index increased to 97.2 in Jul from 95.2 in Jun. Expectations were 95.9

24th Jun 2025

Key takeaway: Consumer confidence indexes had mostly risen post the November Presidential elections. However, over the past few months consumer confidence measures had absolutely collapsed due to tariff related uncertainties and expectations of a surge in inflation. The Fed faced a conundrum where soft data like these consumer surveys pointed to a sharp slowdown, but hard data was still reflective of a resilient economy. In the just concluded June Fed meeting, it is evident that the Fed has chosen to ignore the soft survey data and has taken a hawkish stance given the expectations of a surge in inflation. It is in this backdrop that market participants are keenly watching the outcomes on these consumer surveys. Post the tariff rollbacks and pauses, markets have dramatically changed course and equities are once again close to highs. Given this sharp reversal, consumer surveys are also expected to post better results. The latest survey for June shows consumer confidence decreased by 5 points to 93.0. However, it is worth noting the Index had sharply risen in the previous month of May from 85.7 to 98.4. The Present Situation Index decreased by 6,4 points to 129.1. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index also decreased by 4.6 points to 69.0. The index still remains below 80. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 18 months. It had been higher than 80 for a period of a few months in end 2024. However, the index has now slipped back again well below 80. Overall the index still remains substantially lower compared to the start of the year. A large portion of the survey responses were collected post the date Israel launched air strikes on Iran which caused crude oil prices to spike. Consumer confidence is also usually highly correlated to gas prices at the pump. Consumer expectations of 1 year ahead inflation eased from 6.5% in May to 6.0% in June.

• • The Index decreased to 93.0 in Jun from 98.4 in May. Expectations were 99.4

27th May 2025

Key takeaway: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index had mostly been range bound during the 2 year of 2023 and 2024. The Index had fallen to a 2 year low around the mid of 2024. Since then the Index had bounced back a bit. It had especially increased post the November Presidential election in the hope of stronger economic growth. The expectation was that the new new administration will bring in business friendly policies and support measures to induce further economic growth. However, the tariff related announcement have instead created tremendous uncertainty for businesses and in the economy as a whole and inflation expectations rose sharply up. The Fed now faces a conundrum where soft data like these consumer surveys is pointing to a sharp slowdown, but hard data is yet to reflect that. It is in this backdrop that market participants are keenly watching the outcomes on these consumer surveys. Post the tariff rollbacks and pauses, markets have dramatically changed course and equities are once again close to highs. Given this sharp reversal, consumer surveys are also expected to post better results. The latest survey for May shows consumer confidence increased dramatically with the Index rising from 85.7 to 98.0. The reading was also significantly higher than consensus expectations of 87.1. The Present Situation Index increased by 4.8 points to 135.9. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index also increased sharply by 17.4 points to 72.8. The index still remains below 80. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 18 months. It had been higher than 80 for a period of a few months in end 2024. However, the index has now slipped back again well below 80, even with the latest month increase. A large portion of the survey responses were collected post the 12th May announcement of the pause on China tariff. Consumer expectations of 1 year ahead inflation eased from 7.0% in April to 6.5% in May.   

• • The Index increased to 98.0 in May from 85.7 in Apr. Expectations were 87.1

29th Apr 2025

Key takeaway: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index had mostly been range bound during the 2 year of 2023 and 2024. The Index had fallen to a 2 year low around the mid of 2024. Since then the Index had bounced back a bit. It had especially increased post the November Presidential election in the hope of stronger economic growth. The expectation was that the new new administration will bring in business friendly policies and support measures to induce further economic growth. However, the tariff related announcement have instead created tremendous uncertainty for businesses and in the economy as a whole. Inflation expectations have sharply risen up. The Fed now faces a conundrum where soft data like these consumer surveys is pointing to a sharp slowdown, but hard data is yet to reflect that. It is in this backdrop that market participants are keenly watching the outcomes on these consumer surveys. The latest survey for April shows consumer confidence once again fell sharply with the Index falling from 93.9 to 86.0. This is the lowest level since 2020, post the corona virus pandemic! The Present Situation Index decreased by 0.9 points to 133.5. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index also decreased sharply by 12.5 points to 54.4, the lowest since 2011! An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 18 months. It had been higher than 80 for a period of a few months in end 2024. However, the index has now slipped back again well below 80. It is also key to note that this survey release is the first post the Liberation day tariff announcement. We will also shortly see first glimpses of “hard data” of tariff related effects in the month of April. Consumer expectations of 1 year ahead inflation surged further from 6.2% in March to 7.0% in April. This is again similar to the results of the Michigan Consumer Survey as well which recently saw sharp spikes in inflation expectations.  

• • The Index decreased to 86.0 in Apr from 93.7 in Mar. Expectations were 87.7

25th Mar 2025

Key takeaway: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index had mostly been range bound during the 2 year of 2023 and 2024. The Index had fallen to a 2 year low around the mid of 2024. Since then the Index had bounced back a bit. It had especially increased post the November Presidential election in the hope of stronger economic growth. The expectation was that the new new administration will bring in business friendly policies and support measures to induce further economic growth. However, the tariff related announcement have instead created tremendous uncertainty for businesses and in the economy as a whole. Inflation expectations have sharply risen up. The Fed now faces a conundrum where soft data like these consumer surveys is pointing to a sharp slowdown, but hard data is yet to reflect that. It is in this backdrop that market participants are keenly watching the outcomes on these consumer surveys. The latest survey for March shows consumer confidence once again fell sharply with the Index falling from 100.1 to 92.2. The Present Situation Index decreased by 3.6 points to 134.5. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index also decreased sharply by 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest in the last 12 years! An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 18 months. It had been higher than 80 for a period of a few months in end 2024. However, the index has now slipped back again below 80. Consumer expectations of 1 year ahead inflation surged further from 5.8% in February to 6.2% in March. This is again similar to the results of the Michigan Consumer Survey as well which recently saw sharp spikes in inflation expectations.  

• • The Index decreased to 92.2 in Mar from 100.2 in Feb. Expectations were 94.2

25th Feb 2025

Key takeaway: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index decreased in February by a solid 7.0 points to 98.3 from an upwardly revised 105.3 in January. The Index has fallen for 3 continuous months now. The Index has been mostly range bound in the past couple of years. The Index had fallen to a 2 year low around the mid of 2024. Since then the Index had bounced back a bit. It had especially increased post the November Presidential election in the hope of stronger economic growth. However, since the start of 2025, most of the consumer surveys are printing downbeat numbers as consumers get cautious around geopolitical uncertainty as well as the impact of potential tariffs. The Present Situation Index decreased by 3.4 points to 136.5. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index also decreased by 9.3 points to 72.9. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 18 months. It had been higher than 80 for the previous consecutive 6 months. However, the index has now slipped back again below 80. Consumer expectations of 1 year ahead inflation surged from 5.2% in January to 6.0% in February. This is similar to the results of the Michigan Consumer Survey as well which recently saw sharp spikes in inflation expectations.  

• • The Index decreased to 98.3 in Feb from 105.3 in Jan. Expectations were 102.7

28th Jan 2025

Key takeaway: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index decreased in January by 5.4 points to 104.1 from an upwardly revised 109.5 in December. The Index has fallen for 2 continuous months now. The Index has been mostly range bound in the past couple of years. The Index had fallen to a 2 year low around the mid of 2024. However, since then the Index has bounced back a bit. It is also key to note that the recent data reflects the outcome of the US election and might be skewed by the political affiliations of the survey respondents. Yet, the fact also remains that inflation has been ebbing, the labor market still remains tight and personal incomes continues to rise. The Present Situation Index decreased sharply by 9.7 points to 134.3. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index also decreased by 2.6 points to 83.9. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 18 months. However, it is now been higher than 80 for the past 6 months. Consumer expectations of 1 year ahead inflation increased from 5.1% in December to 5.3% in January.  

• • The Index decreased to 104.1 in Jan from 109.5 in Dec. Expectations were 105.7

23rd Dec 2024

Key takeaway: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index decreased sharply in December by 8.1 points to 104.7 from an upwardly revised 112.8 in November. The Index fell this month after having posted 2 back-to-back months of increases. The Index has been mostly range bound in the past couple of years. However, the past few months have demonstrated an increasing trend. However, it is also key to note that the recent data reflects the outcome of the US election and might be skewed by the political affiliations of the survey respondents. Yet, the fact also remains that inflation has been ebbing, the labor market still remains tight and personal incomes continues to rise. The Present Situation Index decreased 1.2 points to 140.2. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index also decreased sharply by 12.6 points to 81.1. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 18 months. However, it is now been higher than 80 for the past 6 months. Consumer expectations of 1 year ahead inflation expectations continued to fall and stood at 5.0% in December – the lowest reading since March 2020. 

• • The Index decreased to 104.7 in Dec from 112.8 in Nov. Expectations were 112.9

26th Nov 2024

Key takeaway: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index increased in November to 111.7 from an upwardly revised 109.6 in October. The Index has increased substantially for 2 months in a row. The Index has been mostly range bound in the past couple of years. However, the past few months has demonstrated an increasing trend. However, it is also key to note that the latest data reflects the outcome of the US election and might be skewed by the political affiliations of the survey respondents. Yet, the fact also remains that inflation has been ebbing, the labor market still remains tight and personal incomes continues to rise. The Present Situation Index increased 4.8 points to 140.9. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index also increased 0.4 points to 92.3. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 18 months. However, it is now been higher than 80 for the past 5 months. Consumer expectations of 1 year ahead inflation expectations fell sharply from 5.3% in October to 4.9% in November – the lowest reading since March 2020. 

• • The Index increased to 111.7 in Nov from 109.6 in Oct. Expectations were 111.8

29th Oct 2024

Key takeaway: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index increased sharply in October to 108.7 from an upwardly revised 99.2 in September. It is equally important to note that the Index had decreased sharply in September to 98.7 (preliminary read) from an upwardly revised 105.6 in August. The fact remains that the Index has been mostly range bound in the past couple of years. Also is is significantly lower than the highs of 2021 but also significantly lower than pre=pandemic levels. Given the uncertainty in the economy and the weakening labor market, consumer confidence remains delicately poised. The Present Situation Index increased from 124.0 in September to 138.0 in October. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index also increased from 82.8 in September to 89.1 in October. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 18 months. However, it is now been higher than 80 for the past 4 months. Consumer expectations of 1 year ahead inflation expectations increased a bit from 5.2% in September to 5.3% in October.

• The Index increased to 108.7 in Oct from 99.2 in Sep. Expectations were 99.5

24th Sep 2024

Key takeaway: After having risen the last couple of months on the back of declining inflation prints, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased sharply in September to 98.7 from an upwardly revised 105.6 in August. The recent labour market deterioration is said to have contributed the most to weakening consumer sentiment. After having been mostly been sideways in the initial part of 2024, consumer confidence seemed to have been returning a bit after observing a couple of months of increases in July and August. However, like we mentioned earlier, it might be too early to call. Given the uncertainty in the economy and the weakening labor market, consumer confidence remains delicately poised. The Present Situation Index declined from 134.6 in August to 124.3 in September. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index also declined from 86.3 in August to 81.7. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 18 months. However, it is now been higher than 80 for the past 3 months. Consumer expectations of 1 year ahead inflation expectations increased sharply to 5.2% in September.

• The Index decreased to 98.7 in Sep from 105.6 in Aug. Expectations were 103.9

27th Aug 2024

Key takeaway: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased from an upwardly revised 101.9 in July to 103.1 in August. After having been mostly been sideways for the past 3-4 months, consumer confidence seems to be returning a bit. However, it might be too early to call. Given the uncertainty in the economy and the weakening labor market, consumer confidence remains delicately poised. The Present Situation Index declined from 133.1 in July to 134.4 in August. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index improved from 81.1 in July to 82.5. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 18 months. However, it is now been higher than 80 for the past 2 months. Consumer expectations of 1 year ahead inflation expectations dropped sharply to 4.9% – the lowest since March 2020.

• The Index increased to 103.1 in Aug from 101.9 in Jul. Expectations were 100.9

30th Jul 2024

Key takeaway: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased from 97.8 in June to 100.3 in July. The latest release was mostly a non event. The headline index and the sub-indexes have mostly been sideways for the past 3-4 months. With the start of the year inflation shocker behind us, Consumer confidence is not cascading down any more. But given the uncertainty in the economy and rate expectations and the weakening labor market, it is not going up either. The Present Situation Index declined from 135.3 in June to 133.6 in July. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index improved from 72.8 in June to 78.2 in July. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 18 months. Consumer expectations of 1 year ahead inflation expectations remained relatively unchanged at 5.4%.

• The Index increased to 100.3 in Jul from 97.8 in Jun. Expectations were 99.0

25th Jun 2024

Key takeaway: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined slightly from 101.3 in May to 100.4 in June. The latest release was mostly a non event with the headline index and the sub-indexes mostly sideways or slightly down. With the start of the year inflation shocker behind us, Consumer confidence is not cascading down any more. But given the uncertainty in the economy and rate expectations and the weakening labor market, it is not going up either. The Present Situation Index also increased from 140.8 in May to 141.5 in June. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index fell from 74.9 in May to 73.0 in June. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 18 months. Consumer expectations of 1 year ahead inflation expectations remained relatively unchanged at 5.3%.

• The Index decreased to 101.3 in Jun from 100.4 in May. Expectations were 100.0

28th May 2024

Key takeaway: After declining for 3 months in a row, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was back up in May. The Index increased from 97.5 in April to 102.0 in May. Inflation readings had been stickier than anticipated thorough the start of the year. Oil prices had generally increased in the first quarter of 2024. These factors combined with some weak job print and layoff headlines, had caused consternation among consumers and resulted in the Index declining for 3 straight months. However, with the softer inflation print in April and the cooling of gas prices at the pump, Consumer Confidence ticked back up again slightly. The reading was also substantially higher than consensus expectations of 96.0. The Present Situation Index also increased from 140.6 in April to 143.1 in March. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index rose from 68.8 in April to 74.6 in May. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 18 months. Consumer expectations of 1 year ahead inflation expectations remained relatively unchanged at 5.4%.

• The Index increased to 103.1 in May from 97.5 in Apr. Expectations were 97.0

30th Apr 2024

Key takeaway: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined for the 3rd month in a row. Inflation readings have been stickier than anticipated. Oil prices generally have increased in the first quarter of 2024. Some of the factors are starting to reflect into the consumer sentiment and expectations for the future. The headline Index declined in April to 97.0 from a downwardly revised 103.1 in March. More importantly, this reading was substantially lower than consensus expectations. The Present Situation Index also declined sharply from 146.8 in March to 142.9 in April. The March figure itself was revised downwards from the initial reading of 151.0 to 146.8. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index fell from 74.0 in March to 66.4 in April. The decline in the Present Situation and Expectations Index shows that consumers are starting to once again feel nervous about the sticky inflation and its effects of the economy. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals an upcoming recession. This indicator has remained below 80 for most of the past 18 months. A notable positive point in the release was that consumer expectations of 1 year ahead inflation expectations remained relatively unchanged.

• The Index declined at 97.0 in Apr from 103.1 in Mar. Expectations were 104.0

26th Mar 2024

Key takeaway: In line with most other consumer surveys, the TCB Consumer Confidence Index also moved little in March. The TCB Consumer Confidence Index had jumped 3 consecutive months up until January 2024. The Index moderated a bit in February with a decrease from a downwardly revised 110.9 in January to 106.7. The Index further fell to 104.8 in February (which was also a downwardly revised number). And finally the latest March survey showed this headline number at 104.7 – mostly unchanged. Interest rates have climbed back up a bit from the lows seen in end 2023. Accordingly 30 year mortgage rates have somewhat increased as well. Gas prices at the pump have also been a bit higher. And inflation has picked up in the first 3 months of the year. It is hence not surprising that the Consumer Confidence Index is down from its very recent peaks. The Present Situation Index though increased from 147.6 in February to 151.0 in March. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index fell from 76.3 in February to 73.8. The Present Situation and Expectations Index show consumers assessment of the current conditions is favourable but they are doubtful about the future. A reading below 80 on the Expectations Index has typically been associated with a recession within the next year. It is also important to note that the Expectations Index has pretty much been below 80 since December 2022.

• The Index was unchanged at 104.7 in Mar from 104.8 in Feb. Expectations were 106.9

27th Feb 2024

Key takeaway: The last few months have been nothing short of spectacular on most fronts – GDP growth, disinflation, jobs growth, strong retail sales, etc. Hence it was also no surprise that Consumer Confidence Indexes were soaring. The TCB Consumer Confidence Index had jumped 3 consecutive months up until January 2024. The Index moderated a bit in February with a decrease from a downwardly revised 110.9 in January to 106.7. Interest rates have climbed back up a bit in the past month or so. Consumer Confidence is also closely linked with gas prices at the pump – which have also seen an increase in the past few weeks. The Present Situation Index also fell back from 154.9 in January to 147.2 in February. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index also fell from 81.5 in January to 79.7 in February. A reading below 80 on the Expectations Index has typically been associated with a recession within the next year. It is also important to note that the Expectations Index has pretty much been below 80 since December 2022.

• The Index decreased to 106.7 in Feb from 110.9 in Jan. Expectations were 114.8

30th Jan 2024

Key takeaway: The last few months have been nothing short of spectacular on most fronts – GDP growth, disinflation, jobs growth, strong retail sales, etc. Hence it is also no surprise that Consumer Confidence Indexes are soaring. The TCB Consumer Confidence Index jumped from a downwardly revised 108.0 in December to 114.8 in January. Consumer confidence also is usually closely tied to gas prices at the pump. Gasoline prices in the US have also significantly moderated in recent months. The Present Situation Index also rose substantially from from 147.2 to 161.3. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index also rose from 81.9 in December to 83.8 in January. A reading below 80 on the Expectations Index has typically been associated with a recession within the next year. It is also important to note that the Expectations Index has pretty much been below 80 since December 2022. Hence a substantial jump over 80.0 is also worth noting.

• The Index increased to 114.8 in Jan from 108.0 in Dec. Expectations were 114.2

20th Dec 2023

Key takeaway: The TCB Consumer Confidence Index jumped from a downwardly revised 101.0 in November to 110.0 in December. Even though the quantum of increase in the Index was substantial, the direction of the move was hardly surprising given recent turn of events vis. a booming stock market, collapsing bond yields, soft inflation prints and a resilient retail sales print. The Present Situation Index also rose substantially from from 136.5 to 148.5. Lastly, the Future Expectations Index also rose from 77.4 in November to 85.6 in December. A reading below 80 on the Expectations Index has typically been associated with a recession within the next year. It is also important to note that the Expectations Index has pretty much been below 80 since December 2022. Hence a substantial jump over 80.0 is also worth noting.

• The Index increased to 110.0 in Dec from 101.0 in Nov. Expectations were 103.0

28th Nov 2023

Key takeaway: The TCB Consumer Confidence Index increased slightly in November to 102.0 from a downwardly upwardly revised 99.1 in October. After falling 3 months in row, the confidence index improved a bit and that can be significantly attributed to a lower than expected CPI print and a pull back in yields and mortgage rates. The Present Situation Index, on the other hand, ticked down slightly to 138.2 from 138.6. The Future Expectations Index rose to 77.8 in November from a downwardly revised 72.7 in October. A reading below 80 on the Expectations Index has typically been associated with a recession within the next year. It is also important to note that the Expectations Index has pretty much been below 80 since December 2022.

• The Index increased to 102.0 in Nov from 99.1 in Oct. Expectations were 101.0

31st Oct 2023

Key takeaway: The TCB Consumer Confidence Index declined slightly in October to 102.6, down from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September. More importantly, the index has fallen for 3 months in row now. The surge back in inflation, increase in grocery and gas prices at the pump and the uncertain economic outlook are weighing on consumers’ confidence. The Present Situation Index declined to 143.1 from 146.2. The Future Expectations Index fell to 75.6 in October from 76.4 in September. A reading below 80 on the Expectations Index has typically been associated with a recession within the next year. It is also important to note that the Expectations Index has pretty much been below 80 since December 2022..

• The Index decreased to 102.6 in Oct from 104.3 in Sep. Expectations were 100.0

26th Sep 2023

Key takeaway: Given the surge back in inflation, increase in gas prices at the pump and the ongoing mess on a possible government shutdown, it is hardly surprising that the TCB Consumer Confidence Index fell in September to 103.0 from 108.7 in August. The Present Situation Index held up at a relatively unchanged level of 147.1. However the Future Expectations Index fell to 73.7 in September from 83.3 in August. A reading below 80 on the Expectations Index has typically been associated with a recession within the next year. It is also important to note that the Expectations Index has pretty much been below 80 since December 2022..

• The Index decreased to 103.0 in Sep from 108.7 in Aug. Expectations were 105.5

29th Aug 2023

Key takeaway: The Consumer Confidence Index fell in August to 106.1 from a downwardly revised 114.0 in July. The decrease in the index wipes out the past 2 months gains. Even with the fall though, the Index is still substantially above the low of 96 hit in July last year. The Present Situation Index based on consumers assessment of current business and labor market conditions decreased from 153.0 in July to 144.8 in August. Lastly, the Expectations Index also decreased from 88.0 in July to 80.2 in August. A reading below 80 on the Expectations Index has typically been associated with a recession within the next year. So the latest reading sits fractionally above the key level of 80.0. It is also important to note that the Expectations Index had pretty much been below 80 since December 2022.

• The Index decreased to 106.1 in Aug from 114.0 in Jul. Expectations were 116.0

25th Jul 2023

Key takeaway: The Consumer Confidence Index ticked up substantially in July following an equally substantial rise in June. The Index improved from 110.1 in June to 117.0 in July. The Index level is now substantially above the low of 96 hit in July last year. The Present Situation Index based on consumers assessment of current business and labor market conditions increased from 155.3 in Jun to 160.0 in July. Lastly, the Expectations Index also increased from 80.0 in Jun to 88.3 in Jul. A reading below 80 on the Expectations Index has typically been associated with a recession within the next year. And the Expectations Index had pretty much been below 80 since December 2022. In this context, it is key to note the substantial jump in the Expectations Index in June and July as sentiment has improved substantially with the resolution of the debt ceiling, stable gas prices, still abundant job openings and falling inflation.

• The Index increased to 117.0 in Jul from 110.2 in Jun. Expectations were 111.8

27th Jun 2023

Key takeaway: The Consumer Confidence Index ticked up substantially in June, from 102.5 in May to 109.7. The Index level is now substantially above the low of 96 hit in July last year. The Present Situation Index based on consumers assessment of current business and labor market conditions increased from 148.9 in May to 155.3 in June. Lastly, the Expectations Index also increased from 71.5 in May to 79.3 in June. A reading below 80 on the Expectations Index has typically been associated with a recession within the next year. And the Expectations Index has pretty much been below 80 since December 2022. In this context, it is key to note the substantial jump in the Expectations Index in June. Finally, consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next 12 months also fell to 6.0% in June from 6.1% the month before.

• The Index increased to 109.7 in Jun from 102.5 in May. Expectations were 104.0

30th May 2023

Key takeaway: There wasn’t much of a change in the Consumer Confidence Index numbers for May. The bottomline remains that while consumer sentiment is down from the heady days of 2021-22, it is still far above levels seen in past recession periods. The headline Consumer Confidence Index fell in May to 102.3 from an upwardly revised 103.7 in April. The Present Situation Index based on consumers assessment of current business and labour market conditions decreased from 151.8 in Apr to 148.6 in May. Lastly, the Expectations Index fell to 71.5 in May from 71.7 in Apr. A reading below 80 on the Expectations Index has typically been associated with a recession within the next year. And the Expectations Index has pretty much been below 80 since December 2022. While most market participants think that a recession is imminent in the next 12 months, it is also unmistakable that those same participants had been predicting a recession for the past 12 months. The fact remains that we are still dealing with resilient consumption – and that is also being evidenced by first quarter results of companies – especially those in the staples sector! It is worth noting that the Consumer Confidence Index was around the 80 level at the start of the 2008 recession. Finally, consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next 12 months remained similar to previous month, though elevated at 6.1% .

• The Index decreased to 102.3 in May from 103.7 in Apr. Expectations were 99.0

25th Apr 2023

Key takeaway: The headline Consumer Confidence Index fell in April to 101.3 from 104 in March. While the headline index number is lower than 2019 levels, it is still far from a recessionary level and is still indicating a resilient consumer. The Present Situation Index based on consumers assessment of current business and labour market conditions increased a bit from 148.9 in Mar to 151.1 in April. Lastly, the Expectations Index fell to 68.1 in Apr from 74.0 in Mar. A reading below 80 on the Expectations Index has typically been associated with a recession within the next year. While most market participants think that a recession is imminent in the next 12 months, it is also unmistakable that those same participants had been predicting a recession for the past 12 months. The fact remains that we are still dealing with resilient consumption – and that is also being evidenced by first quarter results of companies – especially those in the staples sector! It is worth noting that the Consumer Confidence Index was around the 80 level at the start of the 2008 recession. Finally, consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next 12 months remained similar to previous month, though elevated at 6.2% .

• The Index decreased to 101.3 in Apr from 104.0 in Mar. Expectations were 104.0

28th Mar 2023

Key takeaway: Unlike the January and February reads on consumer confidence, the reading for March showed that consumers assessment of present conditions declined a bit while their assessment of future outlook improved a bit. It is likely that the decline in Present Situation Index might be because of the bank crisis that commenced in early March. Overall consumer confidence though improved from 103.4 in Feb to 104.2 in March. While the headline index number is lower than 2019 levels, it is still far from a recessionary level and is still indicating resilient consumption. Lastly, consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next 12 months remained similar to previous month, though elevated at 6.3% .

• The Index increased to 104.2 in Mar from 103.4 in Feb. Expectations were 101.0

28th Feb 2023

Key takeaway: The February 2023 reading for Consumer Confidence by TCB was an interesting one. Consumers assessment of present conditions improved while their assessment of future outlook worsened. This was the 2nd month of a similar reading. And it makes sense if you look at the larger picture of the US economy. Jobs still remain plentiful, layoffs are still relatively low, payroll numbers are still high. In contrast, many leading economic indicators point to darker clouds on the horizon. The main Consumer Confidence Index declined further from 106.0 in January to 102.9 in February. Lastly, consumers’ expectations for inflation ticked down slightly from 6.7% to 6.3% over the next 12 months.

• The Index decreased to 102.9 in Feb from 106.0 in Jan. Expectations were 108.5

31st Jan 2023

Key takeaway: US Consumer Confidence survey results are often closely linked to gas prices at the pump. So it was not exactly a surprise to see the TCB Confidence Index decrease a bit (at 107.1 from 109.0 in Dec). In contrast, given the decreasing inflation of recent months and current continuing labour market tightness, the Present Situation Index – consumers assessment of current business and labour market conditions – improved from 147.4 in Dec to 150.9 in Jan. Lastly, the Expectations Index – based on consumers short term outlook for income, business and labour market conditions – fell to 77.8 from 83.4 signalling consumers expectations that the current labour market strength might not continue as the economy further weakens. It was also noteworthy that consumers’ expectations for inflation ticked up slightly from 6.6% to 6.8% over the next 12 months.

• The Index decreased to 107.1 in Jan from 109.0 in Dec. Expectations were 109.0

21st Dec 2022

Key takeaway: The Consumer Board Confidence Index increased a substantial 7 points in December! While this can be construed as a good thing, the US consumer literally stands between the Fed and its goal of conquering inflation. Hence, at least in this environment, a large increase in consumer confidence is not something to smile upon. Like I mentioned earlier, the Fed pays close attention to both the TCB Consumer Index and the Michigan survey – especially from an inflation expectations perspective.

• The Index increased to 108.3 in Dec from 101.4 in Nov. Expectations were 101.0

29th Nov 2022

Key takeaway: After 2 out-of-trend upward moved in Aug and Sep, the Consumer Board Confidence index is now back down in Oct and Nov. You need to click on the chart below and look at the index over the past many decades to see how low it had fallen in past recessionary periods. In contrast, while the index is off its last 2 year peak, it is not yet in deep red territory. And still higher than the July low of 95. Make no mistake though – most leading indicators still point to significant headwinds in the economy. Moreover, a “confident consumer” literally stands in the path of the Fed and its target of 2% inflation! Like I mentioned earlier, the Fed pays close attention to both the TCB Consumer Index and the Michigan survey – especially from an inflation expectations perspective. The past month’s NY Fed survey had also shown a slight uptick in medium term inflation expectations. Though market measures of inflation expectations still remain within reasonable bounds.

• The Index decreased to 100.2 from 102.2 in Nov. Expectations were 100.0

25th Oct 2022

After 2 back to back months of increases, the CB Consumer Confidence Index was back down in October. That’s quite expected if considered together with other economic data including softening PMIs, a rise back up in crude oil price and a deteriorating housing market. Yet, the index remains unusually high, in my view, which again highlights a resilient US consumer who continues to buy even in the face of super-charged prices. Once again, I believe, this simply reinforces the Fed’s resolve to keep rates higher and higher for longer. 

• The Index decreased to 102.5 from 107.8 in Oct. Expectations were 106.5

27th Sep 2022

Month after month, the US consumer continues to display amazing resilience. The Consumer Confidence Index was up once again in September – from 103 to 108. Yes, consumer confidence is very closely tied to prices at the pump. Yet, the index holding up fairly well despite the wealth destruction in risk assets and other gloomy data is quite surprising. The good part is that it continues to build hope in the soft landing narrative. (In fact some other data points were very positive as well this week viz. Capital expenditure orders by US firms). But on the flip side, this simply reinforces the Fed’s resolve to keep rate higher and higher for longer. 

• The Index increased to 108.0 from 103.6 in Sep. Expectations were 104.5

30th Aug 2022

After a brief period when markets were starting to believe in a soft landing / goldilocks outcome, we are back to “good news is bad news” days. Results of consumer confidence surveys, both CB and Michigan, are closely tied to gasoline prices. With the drop in prices at the pump, consumer sentiment bounced back in August. Unfortunately though, more signs that the consumer is holding up only strengthens the Fed’s resolve to either take rates much higher and / or keep them lower for longer. This consumer confidence number also coincided with another major release today. Job openings shot up massively – once again highlighting a continuing tight labor market. 

• The Index increased to 103.2 from 95.3 in Aug. Expectations were 97.9

26th Jul 2022

Consumer confidence continues to fall. The latest reading of 95.7 is down from June reading of 98.4 and is the lowest reading since Feb 2021. Similar to the Michigan Consumer Survey, the Fed has its eye on the CB survey as well. How the consumer feels is as important as what the consumer spends in today’s macro world. Watch this WSJ video for a great explanation on the 2 surveys. 

• The Index decreased to 95.7 from 98.4 in June. Expectations were 97.2

28th Jun 2022

You have to click on the link below to see a visual representation of the declining trend in consumer confidence. The headline index declined to 98.7 from 103.2 last month. Even last month’s reading was revised downwards. The headline index number is now the lowest since Feb 2021. The consumer outlook continues to be driven by increasing concerns about inflation and a slowing economy. Similar to the Michigan consumer survey, the key point to note is that the Fed pays very close attention to these survey results!

• The Index decreased to 98.7 from 103.2 in May. Expectations were 100.4

31st May 2022

Similar to last month’s reading – not a significant change. But the fact remains that consumer confidence is at a multi-year low. Consistently high inflation is eroding consumer purchasing power. The PCE data release a few days back also showed consumers dipping into their savings to keep up consumption.

• The Index decreased slightly to 106.4 from 108.6 in April. Expectations were 103.9.

26th Apr 2022

Not a significant change from March. Consumer confidence continues to be relatively weak given the inflation fears and the war backdrop. However, the only positive point in the reading was that it did not get worse!

• The Index decreased slightly to 107.3 from 107.6 in March. Expectations were 108.0.

29th Mar 2022

Taken at face value, the reading is an increase over last month and beat consensus economist expectations. But the reading in isolation does not mean much. A rampant rise in inflation continues to nibble away at future expectations of US consumers. What supports the positive outlook case, is a robust job market which shows no signs of waning. There are 11.3 million job openings in the US. Increasing wages will continue to translate into spending power – till inflation completely erodes it away!

• The Index increased slightly to 107.2 from 105.7 in February. Expectations were 107.

22nd Feb 2022

Consumer Confidence has been trending down over the past several months and that trend continues!

• • • The Index declined to 110.5 from 111.1 in January. Expectations were 110.