US Macro Updates

The One Stop Portal for US Macroeconomic Data. Simplified and Summarized! 

We simplify and summarize key data so that you don’t have to spend hours reading confusing and long media releases. Read key economic releases and major events here in under 2 minutes. And we will explain the key takeaway for you. Stay informed and form a robust view on macroeconomic matters to aid your successful investment decisions

16th Jul 2026

NAHB Housing Market Index

Key takeaway: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for July 2026, released July 16, showed builder confidence deteriorating further as affordability pressures continue to weigh on the market for newly built single-family homes. The headline index fell two points to 34 — below the consensus forecast of 35 — down from an upwardly revised 36 in June, and marked the 27th consecutive month the index has printed below the neutral 50 threshold, with sentiment now stuck below 40 for 15 straight months, the longest such stretch since 2012. All three sub-indices moved lower in tandem: Current Sales Conditions slipped one point to 37, Sales Expectations for the next six months dropped two points to 43, and Buyer Traffic fell two points to 23. The clearest sign of strain came from pricing behavior — 37% of builders cut prices in July, up from 35% in June and 32% in May, while the use of sales incentives climbed to 63%, the 16th consecutive month that share has topped 60%. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said affordability remains the industry’s primary challenge, citing elevated mortgage rates, costly land, rising material prices, and persistent skilled labor shortages, though he flagged the newly enacted housing law as a modest long-term positive for supply. With builder sentiment this depressed and buyer traffic still sliding, the data points to continued softness in single-family construction activity in the months ahead and adds to the case that meaningful relief for the housing sector hinges on lower mortgage rates rather than any near-term policy fix.

15th Jun 2026

Key takeaway: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for June 2026, released on June 15, erased May’s modest recovery and pushed builder sentiment to its weakest reading in over a year, coming in below expectations for the first time in three months. The headline index fell two points to 35 — missing the consensus forecast of 36 — and extended what is now 14 straight months below 40, a streak not seen since the 2011–2012 foreclosure crisis, with NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz pointing to costly and inefficient regulatory policy as a key structural impediment, noting that government regulation, taxes, fees and other costs now add more than 26% to the price of an average single-family home. Current Sales Conditions fell two points to 38, while Sales Expectations for the next six months held steady at 45 and Traffic of Prospective Buyers remained unchanged at a weak 25 — leaving the forward-looking components stable but doing nothing to offset the deterioration in present conditions. The incentive picture continued to worsen: the share of builders cutting prices rose to 35% from 32% in May, average price reductions held at 6%, and the use of sales incentives ticked up to 62% — marking the 15th consecutive month at or above 60%. Regionally, the Northeast was the lone bright spot, rising six points to 50 and touching the expansion threshold for the first time in months, while the South fell seven points to 29 on its three-month moving average — the weakest regional reading in the country and a sharp deterioration that reflects the combination of elevated insurance costs, persistent affordability stress and slowing in-migration that has reversed what had been one of the strongest housing markets of the post-COVID cycle.

18th May 2026
Key takeaway: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for May 2026, released on May 18, offered a modest rebound in homebuilder confidence after April’s slide to a seven-month low. The index rose three points to 37 — beating the consensus expectation of 35 — but remained below the 50-point neutral threshold for a 25th consecutive month, underscoring just how persistently soft conditions remain. All three sub-indices moved in lockstep, each gaining three points: Current Sales Conditions edged up to 40, Sales Expectations for the next six months to 45, and Traffic of Prospective Buyers to 25 — the cleanest possible signal that the improvement was broad-based rather than driven by any one component. On pricing and incentives, the picture was mixed: the share of builders cutting prices fell to 32% from 36% in April, but the average price cut deepened to 6% from 5%, and the use of sales incentives held near historic highs at 61% — the 14th consecutive month at or above 60%. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz pointed to recent increases in long-term interest rates as the key constraint on buyer demand, while Chairman Bill Owens cited higher mortgage rates, rising gas prices, and Iran war-related economic uncertainty as the principal headwinds. With existing-home sales stalled around 4 million annualized units — a volume last seen during the 2007–09 housing downturn — and mortgage rates showing no sign of near-term relief, the May bounce looks more like stabilisation than a genuine turn, leaving the housing cycle heavily dependent on whether long-term yields can retrace from their current elevated levels

15th Apr 2026
Key takeaway: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for April 2026, released April 15, showed a notable deterioration in homebuilder confidence. The index came in at 34 — missing the consensus expectation of 37 and down 4 points from March’s reading of 38, extending a run of readings well below the 50 threshold that separates optimism from pessimism. All three sub-components weakened: the current sales component fell 4 points to 37 — the lowest since September 2025 — while buyer traffic dropped 3 points to 22, matching February as the weakest since September 2025 and under half the level needed to indicate “good” conditions. The deterioration was broad-based geographically, with confidence falling across all four regions — the West posting the weakest reading at 26 and the Midwest dropping 7 points to 38, its lowest in over a year. Cost pressures from the Iran conflict were a key theme, with NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz noting that 62% of builders reported suppliers had raised building material costs due to higher fuel prices, and 70% reported challenges pricing homes given uncertainty about material costs. On incentives, 36% of builders cut prices in April — slightly down from 37% in March — with the average price reduction easing to 5% from 6%, while the use of sales incentives remained elevated at 60%, marking the 13th consecutive month above that threshold.    

16th Mar 2026

Key takeaway: Data released by the National Association of Home Builders showed that the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index increased by 1 point to 38 in March, indicating a modest improvement in homebuilder sentiment. Within the survey, the index measuring current sales conditions increased to 42, while the index of expected sales over the next six months rose to 49, and the gauge of prospective buyer traffic increased to 25. Despite the improvement, the headline index remains well below the neutral level of 50, indicating that more builders continue to view market conditions as poor rather than good. The survey also showed that 37% of builders reported cutting prices during the month, while 64% continued to offer sales incentives in order to support demand. Taken together, the latest report suggests that homebuilder sentiment improved slightly in March, although affordability concerns and elevated construction costs continue to weigh on the outlook for the US housing market. It is also key to note that while builder confidence remains at multi year lows, there yet has to be any noticeable drop in residential construction employment. While single family housing starts and building permits have fallen in the 2nd half of 2025, they have not yet collapsed significantly. However, Private Residential construction spending data from the Census Bureau has shown a sharp decline on a y-o-y basis.    

17th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence declined slightly in February with the Index falling from 37.0 to 36.0. The Index had risen slightly in the 4th quarter of 2025. However, it has posted 2 consecutive months of declines since then. Overall the index remains at multi year lows. One of the most important developments in the US residential real estate industry has been President Trump’s directive to the GSEs to buy mortgage backed securities in an attempt to lower mortgage rates. The 30 year mortgage rate which stood around 6.2%-6.3% saw a sharp decline to around 6.1% in response to the announcement. Weekly mortgage applications witnessed a sharp rise and the MBA Purchase Index spiked up as well. However, since then mortgage rates have climbed back up a bit as the market awaits implementation details on this announcement. However, these latest moves substantiated the notion that there still seems to be underlying demand for residential real estate and it remains highly sensitive to mortgage rates. The index of for future sales within the overall housing index also fell from 49.0 to 46.0. Builders generally expect buyers to resume purchases once rates have moved further down. However, they continue to cut prices and / or use sales incentives to clear inventory. Profit margins of builders continue to drop, though they remain above pre-covid levels. It is also key to note that while builder confidence remains at multi year lows, there yet has to be any noticeable drop in residential construction employment. While single family housing starts and building permits have fallen in the 2nd half of 2025, they have not yet collapsed significantly. However, Private Residential construction spending data from the Census Bureau has shown a sharp decline on a y-o-y basis.    

16th Jan 2026

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence declined slightly in January with the Index falling from 39.0 to 37.0. The latest monthly fall comes after 3 straight months of increases in the index. One of the most important developments in the US residential real estate industry has been President Trump’s directive to the GSEs to buy mortgage backed securities in an attempt to lower mortgage rates. The 30 year mortgage rate which stood around 6.2%-6.3% saw a sharp decline to around 6.1% in response to the announcement. Weekly mortgage applications witnessed a sharp rise and the MBA Purchase Index spiked up as well. The latest moves substantiated the notion that there still seems to be underlying demand for residential real estate and it remains highly sensitive to mortgage rates. The index of for future sales within the overall housing index also fell from 52.0 to 49.0. Builders generally expect buyers to resume purchases once rates have moved further down. However, they continue to cut prices and / or use sales incentives to clear inventory. Profit margins of builders continue to drop, though they remain above pre-covid levels. It is also key to note that while builder confidence remains at multi year lows, there yet has to be any noticeable drop in residential construction employment. While single family housing starts and building permits have fallen over the last couple of months, they have not yet collapsed significantly. However, Private Residential construction spending data from the Census Bureau has shown a sharp decline on a y-o-y basis.    

15th Dec 2025

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence improved slightly in December with the Index rising from 38.0 to 39.0. The 30 year mortgage rate stands at around 6.2%-6.3%. We have occasionally seen weekly mortgage applications and the MBA Purchase Index spike on the back of reduced 30 year mortgage rates. There still seems to be underlying demand for residential real estate, not withstanding the still high mortgage rates compared to the past 15 years. The index of for future sales within the overall housing index rose 1 point from 51.0 to 52.0. Builders generally expect buyers to resume purchases once rates have moved further down. Nonetheless, even at 38.0, the headline index remains closer to the lows last seen in late 2022 and early 2023 when inflation was at its peak. The current uncertainty in the economy, high mortgage rates, buyer unaffordability and rising raw material prices continues to cause builder confidence to be low. Builders continue to cut prices and / or use sales incentives to clear inventory. Profit margins of builders continue to drop, though they remain above pre-covid levels. It is also key to note that while builder confidence remains at multi year lows, there yet has to be any noticeable drop in residential construction employment. While single family housing starts and building permits have fallen over the last couple of months, they have not yet collapsed significantly. However, Private Residential construction spending data from the Census Bureau has shown a sharp decline on a y-o-y basis.    

18th Nov 2025

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence improved slightly in November with the Index rising from 37.0 to 38.0. The 30 year mortgage rate stands at around 6.2%-6.3%. We have occasionally seen weekly mortgage applications and the MBA Purchase Index spike on the back of reduced 30 year mortgage rates. There still seems to be underlying demand for residential real estate, not withstanding the still high mortgage rates compared to the past 15 years. The index of for future sales within the overall housing index fell from 54.0 to 51.0. Builders generally expect buyers to resume purchases once rates have moved further down. Nonetheless, even at 38.0, the headline index remains closer to the lows last seen in late 2022 and early 2023 when inflation was at its peak. The current uncertainty in the economy, high mortgage rates, buyer unaffordability and rising raw material prices continues to cause builder confidence to be low. Builders continue to cut prices and / or use sales incentives to clear inventory. Profit margins of builders continue to drop, though they remain above pre-covid levels. It is also key to note that while builder confidence remains at multi year lows, there yet has to be any noticeable drop in residential construction employment. While single family housing starts and building permits have fallen over the last couple of months, they have not yet collapsed significantly. Private Residential construction spending data from the Census Bureau shows a sharp decline y-o-y though.    

16th Oct 2025

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence significantly improved in October with the Index rising from 32.0 to 37.0. There has been a slight drop in mortgage rates. The 30 year mortgage rate hovers close to 6.3%. We have occasionally seen weekly mortgage applications and the MBA Purchase Index spike on the back of reduced 30 year mortgage rates. These still seems to be underlying demand for residential real estate, not withstanding the still high mortgage rates compared to the past 15 years. The index of for future sales within the overall housing index improved to 54.0, the highest since the start of the year. Builders expect buyers to resume purchases once rates have moved further down. Nonetheless, even at 37.0, the headline index remains at lows last seen in 2022 when inflation was at its peak. The current uncertainty in the economy, high mortgage rates, buyer unaffordability and rising raw material prices continues to cause builder confidence to be low. Builders continue to cut prices and / or use sales incentives to clear inventory. Profit margins of builders continue to drop, though they remain above pre-covid levels. It is also key to note that while builder confidence remains at multi year lows, there yet has to be any noticeable drop in residential construction employment. While single family housing starts and building permits have fallen over the last couple of months, they have not yet collapsed significantly.    

16th Sep 2025

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence was unchanged in September with the Index remaining at 32.0. The Index remains at lows last seen in 2022 when inflation was at its peak. The current uncertainty in the economy, high mortgage rates, buyer unaffordability and rising raw material prices has caused builder confidence to fall in recent months / quarters. Builders continue to cut prices and / or use sales incentives to clear inventory. Profit margins of builders continue to drop, though they remain above pre-covid levels. It is also key to note that while builder confidence remains at multi year lows, there yet has to be any noticeable drop in residential construction employment. While single family housing starts and building permits have fallen over the last couple of months, they have not yet collapsed significantly.    

18th Aug 2025

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence declined slightly in August with the Index falling from 33.0 to 32.0. The Index remains at lows last seen in 2022 when inflation was at its peak. The current uncertainty in the economy coupled with rising raw material prices has caused builder confidence to fall. Home affordability also remains a key issue. Apart from the lows in the Index, other measures like number of buildings cutting prices, number of builders using sales incentives, etc also has been at multi-year highs, indicative of a weak housing market. However, it is also key to note that while builder confidence remains at multi year lows, there yet has to be any noticeable drop in residential construction employment. While single family housing starts and building permits have fallen over the last couple of months, they have not yet collapsed significantly.    

17th Jul 2025

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence held steady in July after having fallen substantially in the past few months. The index had fallen to levels last seen in 2022 when inflation was at its peak. The current uncertainty in the economy coupled with rising raw material prices had caused the builder confidence index to fall to a low of 32. The latest survey showed a marginal increase in the Index from 32 to 33. It is also key to note that while builder confidence remains at multi year lows, there yet has to be any noticeable drop in residential construction employment. While single family housing starts and building permits have fallen over the last couple of months, they have not yet collapsed significantly.    

17th Jun 2025

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence once again tanked further in June reaching levels last seen in 2022. The current uncertainty in the economy coupled with rising raw material prices caused the builder confidence index to fall from 34 to 32 in this survey. It is also key to note that while builder confidence remains at multi year lows, there yet has to be any noticeable drop in residential construction employment. While single family housing starts and building permits have fallen over the last couple of months, they have not yet collapsed significantly.    

15th May 2025

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence tanked in May against consensus expectations. The Index after having declined to multi month lows had improved a bit in the last month. However, the current uncertainty in the economy coupled with rising raw material prices caused the builder confidence index to tank from 40 to 34 in this survey. However, it is also key to note that the survey responses before the announcement of recent tariff deals with China and the UK. Nonetheless, the big picture remains that builder confidence remains at multi year lows, although there yet has to be any noticeable drop in residential construction employment.    

16th Apr 2025

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence rose marginally in April against consensus expectations. The Index after having declined to multi month lows, improved from 39 in March to 40 in April. Consensus expectations were for a decrease to 38 from 39 in March. Even though the index improved a bit, it still remains at multi month lows and lower than the high of 51 in 2024. The Index also remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels as mortgage rates remain high and housing unaffordability remains an issue. Moreover the inflationary effects of tariffs create further uncertainty for home builders. Home construction has still not fallen significantly and construction employment is holding up as well.   

17th Mar 2025

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence fell further in March, the second consecutive month of decline. The Index after having decreased to 47 in February from 42 in January, fell 3 points further to 39 in March. The Index was at a 9 month high in January on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. However, recent consumer sentiment surveys have indicated weakness / concern about the economy and the inflationary effects of potential tariffs. Mortgage rates continue to remain high and home prices are still vastly unaffordable. New home inventory is piling up at the home builders. Home builders are also facing rising input cost pressures on account of the new tariffs. All of these factors has led to a decline in the Index in February and March. Home construction has still not fallen significantly and construction employment is holding up as well.   

18th Feb 2025

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence fell sharply in February. The Index decreased to 47 in February from 42 in the previous month of January. The Index was at a 9 month high in January on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. However, recent consumer sentiment surveys have indicated a weakness / concern about the economy and the inflationary effects of potential tariffs. Mortgage rates continue to remain high and home prices are still vastly unaffordable. New home inventory is piling up at the home builders. All of these factors has led to a decline in the Index in February. Home construction has still not fallen significantly and construction employment is holding up as well.   

16th Jan 2025

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence improved further in January to start off the new year. The Index increased to 47 from 46 in the previous month of December. The Index stands at a 9 month high now on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. The Index has come off the low of 39 seen in July last year. Builders had blamed the US election uncertainty and the climb back up in mortgage rates for the 2 year low seen in the Index. Ironically, mortgage rates still remain elevated with the 30 year mortgage back again above the 7% level. Yet, buyer activity is gradually returning to the Existing home sales market with buyers and sellers both adjusting to the reality of higher interest rates.   

17th Dec 2024

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence held steady in December. The Index remained at 46, same as the previous month of November. Home Builders confidence has bounced back off recent lows. The Index increased for 3 consecutive months and has come off the low of 39 seen in July this year. Builders had blamed the US election uncertainty and the climb back up in mortgage rates for the 2 year low seen in the Index earlier this year. Elevated mortgage rates and high house prices continue to crimp mortgage demand. Even though the Fed cut short term interest rates in September, long term rates have since risen. The 30 year mortgage rate has also since risen from a low of around 6.0% to 6.8% currently. Even though home price growth has slowed, the price level remains elevated. Nonetheless, the overall economy continues to be robust though and the move up in home builders confidence is worth noting.  

  • The NAHB Index remained the same at 46 (Nov was 46)

18th Nov 2024

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence increased in November to 46 from 43 in October. The increase up is slight, similar to the increase seen in the previous months of Septenber and October. However, the key point to note is that the Index has increased for 3 consecutive months and has come off the low of 39 seen in July this year. Builders had blamed the US election uncertainty and the climb back up in mortgage rates for the 2 year low seen in the Index earlier this year. Elevated mortgage rates and high house prices continue to crimp mortgage demand. Even though the Fed cut short term interest rates in September, long term rates have since risen. The 30 year mortgage rate has also since risen from a low of around 6.0% to 6.8% currently. Even though home price growth has slowed, the price level remains elevated. Nonetheless, the overall economy continues to be robust though and the move up in home builders confidence is worth noting.  

17th Oct 2024

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence increased slightly in October to 43 from 41 in Sep. The increase up is slight, similar to the increase seen in the previous month of September. Elevated mortgage rates and high house prices continue to crimp mortgage demand. Even though the Fed cut short term interest rates in September, long term rates have since risen. The 30 year mortgage rate has also since risen from a low of around 6.0% to 6.5% currently. Even though home price growth has slowed, the price level remains elevated. The overall economy continues to be robust though. Q3 GDP growth is expected to print above 3.0%. The home builders confidence index can likely trend up with continuing confidence in the US economy and falling interest rates. Overall activity is likely to remain subdued though which will keep a lid on rising real estate prices. 

17th Sep 2024

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence increased slightly in September to 41 from 39 in August. The increase up is not meaningful, though it changes the direction of travel after 4 continuous months of declines. Elevated mortgage rates and high house prices continue to crimp mortgage demand. The Index has fallen from its recent peak of 51 at the start of the year. The Index is closer to the cycle low of 31 seen in 2022 when inflation fears were at their peak. Home Builders Confidence Index also historically correlates well with the Consumer Confidence Indexes – both Michigan and TCB. However, of late, as inflation has subsided further, consumers are feeling more upbeat about expected inflation in the future and about the economy. The home builders confidence index can likely trend up with continuing confidence in the US economy and falling interest rates. Overall activity is likely to remain subdued though which will keep a lid on rising real estate prices. 

15th Aug 2024

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence dipped further in August to 39 from a downwardly revised 41 in July. Elevated mortgage rates and high house prices continue to crimp mortgage demand. The Index has fallen from its recent peak of 51 at the start of the year. The Index is getting closer to the cycle low of 31 seen in 2022 when inflation fears were at their peak. Home Builders Confidence Index also historically correlates well with the Consumer Confidence Indexes – both Michigan and TCB. However, of late, as inflation has subsided further, consumers are feeling more upbeat about expected inflation in the future and about the economy. However, the home builders confidence still remains low as house purchase activity remains muted. The past few months have demonstrated more inventory returning to the Existing Home Sales market as current home owners come to terms with the higher for longer rates and start listing their homes for sale. This is likely keep a lid on home prices. 

16th Jul 2024

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence dipped slightly in July to 42 from 43 in the previous month. Elevated mortgage rates and high house prices continue to crimp mortgage demand. The Index has fallen from its recent peak of 51 at the start of the year. The Home Builders Confidence Index also historically correlates well with the Consumer Confidence Indexes – both Michigan and TCB. The unexpected rise in inflation witnessed earlier in the year along with the slowdown in economic growth has dampened consumer sentiment and buyers seem to be more cautious on residential real estate purchases. Also, the past few months have demonstrated more inventory returning to the Existing Home Sales market as current home owners come to terms with the higher for longer rates and start listing their homes for sale. This is likely keep a lid on home prices. However, Home Builders continue to be relatively positive about the current conditions in the real estate market and about future prospects as well. And hence, construction activity in the residential housing sector has been generally resilient. There is a large build up of inventory in new homes and this will be a key data point to watch in the near future.

19th Jun 2024

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence continued to retreat in June following the declines in the previous two months. The Index fell to 43 which is the lowest for the year though still higher than the low of 34 reached in November last year. Elevated mortgage rates and high house prices continue to crimp mortgage demand. The Home Builders Confidence Index also historically correlates well with the Consumer Confidence Indexes – both Michigan and TCB. The unexpected rise in inflation witnessed earlier in the year along with the slowdown in economic growth has dampened consumer sentiment and buyers seem to be more cautious on residential real estate purchases. Also, the past few months have demonstrated more inventory returning to the Existing Home Sales market as current home owners come to terms with the higher for longer rates and start listing their homes for sale. This is likely keep a lid on home prices. However, Home Builders continue to be relatively positive about the current conditions in the real estate market and about future prospects as well. And hence, construction activity in the residential housing sector has been generally resilient. There is a large build up of inventory in new homes and this will be a key data point to watch in the near future.

15th May 2024

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence retreated in May as mortgage rates above 7% continued to bite. Home builder confidence had improved significantly since reaching a low of 34 on the Index in November. However, the measure stalled in April and retreated in May. Inflation has come in hotter than expected through most of 2024. The GDP print was weaker. Retail Sales have been a bit weak as well. All of these factors have been affecting consumer confidence and we can see that reflected in the Consumer Survey Indices as well. The NAHB housing index correlates to consumer confidence in general and hence the scale back in the Index is not a surprise. Also, there seems to be more inventory returning to the Existing Home Sales market which will likely keep a lid on home prices. On the balance though, barring these volatile monthly prints, Home Builders continue to be positive about the current conditions in the real estate market and about future prospects as well. Construction activity in the residential housing sector has also been picking up as seen in the Building permits and housing starts data which has also been generally resilient.

15th Apr 2024

Key takeaway: Home Builders confidence stalled in April with the recent hotter-than-expected inflation reports and the sharp rise in treasury yields and mortgage rates seen over the past couple of months. The NAHB Index is based on a monthly survey of home builders and is designed to reflect the sentiment in the new homes market. This key index, after rising for most of 2023, had fallen for 4 months in a row (from 56 in July to 50 in August to 45 in September to 40 in October and to 34 in November). That was close to the lowest index level (in the recent cycle) of 31 recorded in Dec 2022. After a surge in early 2023, new home sales activity cooled down significantly and home builder confidence dropped. However, with the drop in mortgage rates during the end of 2023, home builder confidence started increasing again. The Index had risen from 34 in November to 51.0 in March and it maintained the same level in April. This also was in line with consensus expectations. On the balance though, Home Builders continue to get more positive about the the current conditions in the real estate market and about future prospects as well. Construction activity in the residential housing sector has also been picking up as seen in the Building permits and housing starts data which has also been generally resilient.

18th Mar 2024

Key takeaway: The NAHB Index is based on a monthly survey of home builders and is designed to reflect the sentiment in the new homes market. This key index, after rising for most of 2023, had fallen for 4 months in a row (from 56 in July to 50 in August to 45 in September to 40 in October and to 34 in November). That was close to the lowest index level (in the recent cycle) of 31 recorded in Dec 2022. After a surge in early 2023, new home sales activity cooled down significantly and home builder confidence dropped. However, with the drop in mortgage rates during the end of 2023, home builder confidence started increasing again. The Index has risen from 34 in November to the latest print of 51.0 in March. This also beat consensus expectations of 48.0 on the Index. This is a key development in the US Residential real estate market since the Index crossed the important threshold of 50 which typically denotes the level between expansion and contraction. Home Builders continue to get more positive about the the current conditions in the real estate market and about future prospects as well. However, it is also important to note that even though the Index has crossed the 50 level, it remains much below the 2021 / 22 peak as well as below average levels before the 2020 pandemic. Construction activity in the residential housing sector has also been picking up as seen in the Building permits and housing starts data which has also been generally resilient.

15th Feb 2024

Key takeaway: The NAHB Index is based on a monthly survey of home builders and is designed to reflect the sentiment in the new homes market. This key index, after rising for most of 2023, had fallen for 4 months in a row (from 56 in July to 50 in August to 45 in September to 40 in October and to 34 in November). That was close to the lowest index level (in the recent cycle) of 31 recorded in Dec 2022. After a surge in early 2023, new home sales activity cooled down significantly and home builder confidence dropped. However, with the recent drop in mortgage rates over the past 2 months, home builder confidence seems to be increasing again. The Index has risen from 34 in November to the latest print of 48.0 in February. This also beat consensus expectations of 46.0 on the Index. Construction activity in the residential housing sector has also been picking up as seen in the Building permits and housing starts data which has also been generally resilient.

17th Jan 2024

Key takeaway: After having fallen for 4 continuous months from July to November 2023, the NAHB Housing Market Index had increased from 34 to 37 in December. Home Builder confidence has started on an even further positive note in 2024. The NAHB Index rose substantially to 44 in January 2024. Treasury yields have come off in the last 2 months of 2023 and there has been an accompanying sharp and swift fall in mortgage rates. The NAHB Index is based on a monthly survey of home builders and is designed to reflect the sentiment in the new homes market. This key index, after rising for most of 2023, had fallen for 4 months in a row (from 56 in July to 50 in August to 45 in September to 40 in October and to 34 in November). That was close to the lowest index level (in the recent cycle) of 31 recorded in Dec 2022. After a surge in early 2023, new home sales activity cooled down significantly and home builder confidence dropped. However, with the recent drop in mortgage rates over the past 2 months, home builder confidence seems to be increasing again. Building permits and housing starts data has also been generally resilient.

18th Dec 2023

Key takeaway: After having fallen the last 4 months, the NAHB Housing Market Index increased from 34 to 37. Home Builder confidence improved with the sharp and swift fall in mortgage rates. The NAHB Index is based on a monthly survey of home builders and is designed to reflect the sentiment in the new homes market. This key index, after rising for most of 2023, had fallen for 4 months in a row (from 56 in July to 50 in August to 45 in September to 40 in October and to 34 in November). That was close to the lowest index level (in the recent cycle) of 31 recorded in Dec 2022. After a surge in early 2023, new home sales activity cooled down significantly and home builder confidence dropped. However, with the recent drop in mortgage rates over the past 2 months, home builder confidence seems to be increasing again.

16th Nov 2023

Key takeaway: The slide in the NAHB Index continued for a 4th month in a row. The NAHB Index is based on a monthly survey of home builders and is designed to reflect the sentiment in the new homes market. This key index, after rising for most of 2023, has now fallen for 4 months in a row (from 56 in July to 50 in August to 45 in September to 40 in October and now to 34 in November). This is close to the lowest index level (in the recent cycle) of 31 recorded in Dec 2022. The bottomline is that after a surge in early 2023, new home sales activity seems to be cooling down significantly and home builder confidence is waning. Apart from the headline index, home builders assessment of sales over the next 6 months and buyer traffic also fell steeply in November. The downstream effect of a cooling home market on the construction sector and construction jobs is likely to add to the recessionary headwinds in the US economy

17th Oct 2023

Key takeaway: The slide in the NAHB Index continued for a 3rd month in a row. The NAHB Index is based on a monthly survey of home builders and is designed to reflect the sentiment in the new homes market. This key index, after rising for most of 2023, has now fallen for 3 months in a row (from 56 in July to 50 in August to 45 in September and finally 40 in October). This possibly indicates that the rise in the new home market seen in 2023 is now cooling off as interest rates remain stubbornly high and inflation reaccelerating over the past few months. Apart from the headline index, home builders assessment of sales over the next 6 months and buyer traffic also fell steeply in October. The downstream effect of a cooling home market on the construction sector and construction jobs is likely to add to the recessionary headwinds in the US economy

18th Sep 2023

Key takeaway: The NAHB Index is based on a monthly survey of home builders and is designed to reflect the sentiment in the new homes market. This key index, after rising for most of 2023, has now fallen for 2 months in a row (from 56 in July to 50 in August and now to 45 in September). This possibly indicates that the rise in the new home market seen in 2023 is now cooling off as interest rates remain stubbornly high and inflation reaccelerating over the past two months. Apart from the headline index, Home builders assessment of sales over the next 6 months and buyer traffic also fell steeply in September. The downstream effect of a cooling home market on the construction sector and construction jobs is likely to add to the recessionary headwinds in the US economy

15th Aug 2023

Key takeaway: The NAHB Index is a diffusion index. ie. A reading above 50 is taken to be expansionary or indicating a favorable outlook and a reading below 50 is taken to be contractionary or indicating a negative outlook. The NAHB Index had moved above the 50 mark in June (55) for the first time since July 2022. The Index then posted a small increase to 56 in August. In a key development, the NAHB Index moved back down substantially from 56 to 50. This breaks a 7 consecutive monthly increase trend. Everyone widely belives the US Residential Sector to have formed a bottom and New home sales have also been on a upswing. Hence any change in the home builders sentiment would be key in determining the direction of the US residential market.

19th Jul 2023

Key takeaway: The NAHB Index is a diffusion index. ie. A reading above 50 is taken to be expansionary or indicating a favorable outlook and a reading below 50 is taken to be contractionary or indicating a negative outlook. The NAHB Index moved above the 50 mark in June (55) for the first time since July 2022. The Index posted a small increase to 56 in its latest print today for July. However, the more important point to note is that this is the 7th consecutive monthly increase. The US Residential Sector is widely being called as having formed a bottom and New home sales have been on a upswing. The question really is – how long does this last? There have been some indications of a slowdown in the multi family housing construction space (which had been performing much better than the single family home market). However, activity seems to be picking back up again in the Single Family segment.

19th Jun 2023

Key takeaway: The NAHB Index is a diffusion index. ie. A reading above 50 is taken to be expansionary or indicating a favorable outlook and a reading below 50 is taken to be contractionary or indicating a negative outlook. The NAHB Index moved above the 50 mark (55 for the month of June) for the first time since July 2022. However, the more important point to note is that this is the 6th consecutive monthly increase. The US Residential Sector is widely being called as having formed a bottom and New home sales have been on a upswing. The question really is – how long does this last? There have been some indications of a slowdown in the multi family housing construction space (which had been performing much better than the single family home market). 

16th May 2023

Key takeaway: Who would have thought at the end of 2022 with US Residential Real Estate in free fall, we would be looking at the NAHB/ Wells Fargo Housing Market Index back at 50.0 – the same level of July 2022 and 5 continuous months of sentiment index increases in 2023?! The story continues. Lack of inventory from fleeting sellers in the Existing Homes market is driving buyers and consequently momentum in the New Home Sales market. New Home prices continue to rise month over month. While that is typical from a seasonal perspective (spring home purchase season), it is key to note that it becomes harder to put a disinflationary spin to the overall price level in the economy when home prices continue to be on the upswing. The latest print of 50 is also significantly above consensus expectations of 45! It is little surprise that stocks of home builder companies and ETFs are not too far from their all time highs reached in 2022. 

17th Apr 2023

Key takeaway: The story continues.. In yet another sign of stabilization in the US housing market, the NAHB Index – a gauge of home builder confidence – increased more than expectations. The index was expected to print 44 and the latest read came in at 45. Just for context – last years low was 31 in Dec 2022. Limited resale inventory in the US residential market has resulted in more activity in the new construction / new home sales market. Even with mortgage rates much higher compared to a year ago, buyer demand has stayed relatively resilient. It is little surprise that stocks of home builder companies and ETFs are not too far from their all time highs reached in 2022. 

15th Mar 2023

Key takeaway: The latest reading of the NAHB Index for March once again reiterates a stabilizing US residential market. The Index has grown for the past 3 consecutive months from a low of 31 in Dec 2022 to a reading of 44 in March. This is still significantly below 2020/2021 high of 90. But it emphasizes that the current downturn in the US housing market has hit a pause if not a bottom. Even though high construction costs, high mortgage rates and lower housing affordability have been major headwinds for the US housing market, home builders have been cautiously optimistic since the start of 2023 that the worst of the housing downturn is over.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. The data is collected from a monthly survey of about 900 home builders asking respondents to, “rate market conditions for the sale of new homes at the present time and in the next six months as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.” It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook.

NAHB