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Book Review – Money Games by Weijian Shan

Time to take a break from Macro and write something different. Every year I take a weeklong trip with my teenage daughter doing something different. Last year we hiked a...

The Long and Short (End) of the US Treasury Market

Last year, Bloomberg launched a new brand campaign. “Context changes everything”. I liked this tag line. If you are a risk assets investor, you cannot invest without first placing the...

A Summer of Perfect Correlation?

It might have flown quietly under the radar, but this was an eventful week in Treasury Markets – marked by the auction results turning out to be a fairly non-event....

More Bang for the Buck – Surging Productivity?

Information overload is a pitfall of the digital era we live in. A ton of apparent topics get covered in mainstream financial media. The interesting bit is to explore and...

A Tale of Two Cities

Two banking behemoths. Two different years. Two divergent equity returns. One common underlying reason. There is no denying the fact that JP Morgan and Bank of America are in a...

Understanding the Non-Farm Payroll Data

Non-Farm Payroll ? Non-Fathomable Payroll? Non-Faltering Payroll? What does this article intend to achieve? One of two objectives: Either put you to sleep OR help you understand: Non-Farm Payroll is...

The Base Effect in CPI

Economic history is replete with incidents of hubris followed by lessons in humility. The latest CPI data showed y-o-y CPI is down to 3.0% in June 2023. The last time...

It was supposed to be All about Liquidity

There was supposedly a liquidity cliff looming. The theory was – once the debt ceiling is resolved, treasury bill issuance will re-commence. The barrage of issuances would drain liquidity from...

Shelter Component of CPI Explained

Everyone knows that the Fed is intensely focused on core services ex-housing inflation to determine future course of monetary policy. This chosen path makes two assumptions – core goods disinflation...

US 4Q 2022 GDP – First Analysis

The First Advance estimate for 4Q released on 26th Jan 2023 showed US GDP grew at a healthy rate of 2.9% annualized. Even Q3 GDP had been revised upwards to...

The “Real” Wages Story – Pun Intended

What’s going on with Wages, “Really”?? The Fed meeting starts today – 31st January. And it is almost certain to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The real event...

Landing Soft or Hard?

Admittedly, this might be an over-simplistic representation of the complex being that financial markets are ! But I do feel it all boils down to who takes the speedier elevator...

US 3Q 2022 GDP – First Analysis

The First Advance estimate for 3Q GDP released on 27th Oct 2022 showed US GDP rebounded back growing at a 2.6% annualized rate after having fallen 1.6% and 0.6% in...

The 1980 Inflation Lesson

As the world, led by central banks, walks this treacherous path of balancing stable prices with economic growth (or at the minimum avoiding a recession), there have been comparisons galore...

The US Housing Market Explained !

Context is key. Context is important because it gives meaning to communication. I loved this quote I read on the internet – “Content is King, but Context is God!” (courtesy...

Decluttering the GDP Data Clutter !

Image Courtesy: NBC News Introduction: Q1 2022 GDP fell 1.4%. How bad were the numbers really? The First Advance estimate for 1Q22 showed US GDP fell 1.4%. Generally, that is...

The Inflation vs Deflation Debate

Summary: No one can predict whether this bout of inflation that the world is experiencing is transitory or not. It is also difficult to argue against the long term, persistent...

Australia – The Lucky Country

Inflation expectations, transient inflation, base effects, lift off, thinking about thinking about hiking – These and a dozen more phrases / words have been dished out in bountiful quantities in...

US Short Term Rates and Reverse Repo

The developments around replacement of Libor and the evolution of SOFR as an alternative rate have been one of the most important events to follow in global markets in recent...

US Treasury Auctions

US Interest Rates (i.e. Treasury yields in the US) are always a key determinant of asset prices, especially equities. And in today’s context, it is probably more important than ever....

Gold as an Investment Strategy

All that glitters is not Gold. Unless of course you are referring to GDX, GLD or other similar ETFs! Gold and Gold ETFs have had a phenomenal run since the...

US Treasury ETFs

The Bond Markets have been solidly in the news lately. All eyes are on the Treasury Notes and Bonds space to see where yields are headed and what is the...

The China Bond Market Opportunity

One of the most interesting developments in the Global Fixed Income space has been the rising prominence of the China Bond Market onto the world stage. Firstly, the China Bond...

Rupee risk for USD Denominated Investors

There is an inherent familiarity bias in investing. As an NRI there is an inherent comfort in parking hard earned savings in the form of a term deposit with SBI...

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