It might have flown quietly under the radar, but this was an eventful week in Treasury Markets – marked by the auction results turning out to be a fairly non-event....

Information overload is a pitfall of the digital era we live in. A ton of apparent topics get covered in mainstream financial media. The interesting bit is to explore and...

Two banking behemoths. Two different years. Two divergent equity returns. One common underlying reason. There is no denying the fact that JP Morgan and Bank of America are in a...

Non-Farm Payroll ? Non-Fathomable Payroll? Non-Faltering Payroll? What does this article intend to achieve? One of two objectives: Either put you to sleep OR help you understand: Non-Farm Payroll is...

Economic history is replete with incidents of hubris followed by lessons in humility. The latest CPI data showed y-o-y CPI is down to 3.0% in June 2023. The last time...

There was supposedly a liquidity cliff looming. The theory was – once the debt ceiling is resolved, treasury bill issuance will re-commence. The barrage of issuances would drain liquidity from...

Everyone knows that the Fed is intensely focused on core services ex-housing inflation to determine future course of monetary policy. This chosen path makes two assumptions – core goods disinflation...

Amongst the alphabet soup that we have been treated to these past few days – SI, SVB, SB, FRB, CS, UBS – there is one set of letters that we...

Its been a crazy start to the year! January and February have been riveting on both – economic data and market price action. Here is a short narrative to take...

The First Advance estimate for 4Q released on 26th Jan 2023 showed US GDP grew at a healthy rate of 2.9% annualized. Even Q3 GDP had been revised upwards to...

What’s going on with Wages, “Really”?? The Fed meeting starts today – 31st January. And it is almost certain to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The real event...

Admittedly, this might be an over-simplistic representation of the complex being that financial markets are ! But I do feel it all boils down to who takes the speedier elevator...

The First Advance estimate for 3Q GDP released on 27th Oct 2022 showed US GDP rebounded back growing at a 2.6% annualized rate after having fallen 1.6% and 0.6% in...

As the world, led by central banks, walks this treacherous path of balancing stable prices with economic growth (or at the minimum avoiding a recession), there have been comparisons galore...

Context is key. Context is important because it gives meaning to communication. I loved this quote I read on the internet – “Content is King, but Context is God!” (courtesy...

A lot can change in 3 months? How much? Read on… The First Advance estimate for 2Q released last week showed GDP fell at an annualized rate of 0.9%. Put...

Image Courtesy: NBC News Introduction: Q1 2022 GDP fell 1.4%. How bad were the numbers really? The First Advance estimate for 1Q22 showed US GDP fell 1.4%. Generally, that is...

Introduction – The death of the US dollar as the world’s predominant reserve currency has been long debated and predicted. In this article, I explain some of the recent trends...

Introduction The Treasury market is the deepest and most liquid market in the world. So, it is expected to have minimal, if not zero, rumblings and cracks in its functioning....

Follow up to our previous articles on the China bond investment opportunity. The China government bond investment proposition sounded very attractive in late 2020 and early 2021. But does it...

Summary: No one can predict whether this bout of inflation that the world is experiencing is transitory or not. It is also difficult to argue against the long term, persistent...

In the previous article in December 2020 on the China Bond market opportunity, I had explained the underlying factors supporting the case for investments into Chinese Government and Policy Bank...

Inflation expectations, transient inflation, base effects, lift off, thinking about thinking about hiking – These and a dozen more phrases / words have been dished out in bountiful quantities in...

On June 2nd, 2021, the Fed announced that it will be selling off its Corporate Bond and Corporate Bond ETF Portfolio. If you recollect, in March 2020 at the start...

Rates at the long end of the Treasury curve have been in sharp focus since the start of 2021. Yields on these risk free assets underpin the valuation of risky...

The British Pound is probably the oldest existing currency of the world. Here is an interesting fun fact – The English expression “spend a penny” means going to the bathroom,...

The developments around replacement of Libor and the evolution of SOFR as an alternative rate have been one of the most important events to follow in global markets in recent...

US Interest Rates (i.e. Treasury yields in the US) are always a key determinant of asset prices, especially equities. And in today’s context, it is probably more important than ever....

All that glitters is not Gold. Unless of course you are referring to GDX, GLD or other similar ETFs! Gold and Gold ETFs have had a phenomenal run since the...

The Bond Markets have been solidly in the news lately. All eyes are on the Treasury Notes and Bonds space to see where yields are headed and what is the...

One of the most interesting developments in the Global Fixed Income space has been the rising prominence of the China Bond Market onto the world stage. Firstly, the China Bond...

There is an inherent familiarity bias in investing. As an NRI there is an inherent comfort in parking hard earned savings in the form of a term deposit with SBI...