US Macro Updates

The One Stop Portal for US Macroeconomic Data. Simplified and Summarized! 

We simplify and summarize key data so that you don’t have to spend hours reading confusing and long media releases. Read key economic releases and major events here in under 2 minutes. And we will explain the key takeaway for you. Stay informed and form a robust view on macroeconomic matters to aid your successful investment decisions

7th Aug 2026

Manheim Used Car Price Index

Key takeaway: The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for July 2026, released August 7, fell 1.4% month-over-month to 210 on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis — the first monthly decline in three months, following June’s flat 0.1% gain, and against a long-term average July move of a 0.4% increase. On a year-over-year basis the index was up just 1.3%, a notable narrowing from June’s 2.1% gain; Cox Automotive attributed part of that slowdown to a base effect as the comparison laps last summer’s tariff-driven price climb, with genuine seasonal depreciation doing more of the work now that the market is fully into summer. Non-adjusted wholesale prices were down 2.6% from June but still up 1.7% year-over-year. The EV/non-EV split remained the standout story: the EV Index climbed to 211.6, up 10.5% year-over-year, while the Non-EV Index rose just 0.4% and has been essentially flat since mid-2024. The index has now retreated roughly 2.5% from its March peak, extending the normalization from this spring’s unusually strong “Spring Bounce” that had been fueled by tax-refund-driven demand. With wholesale values cooling in a fairly orderly, seasonally typical way, this points to used-vehicle prices remaining a mild but not accelerating contributor to CPI’s used-cars-and-trucks component in the months ahead.

8th Jul 2026

Key takeaway: The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for June 2026, released on July 8, drew a tidy line under the first half of the year and confirmed a market that has settled back into orderly seasonal behaviour after an unusually strong spring. The headline seasonally adjusted index rose to 212.9 — up just 0.1% month-on-month, slightly below the long-run June average of 0.5%, and 2.1% above June 2025, a deceleration from May’s 3.6% year-on-year gain that Cox Automotive’s Jonathan Gregory characterised as almost entirely a base effect rather than a genuine softening in conditions. The first-half story is a straightforward one: a stronger-than-expected tax-refund season drove wholesale values to a multi-year high in March before a steady normalisation, leaving the index about 1% below that peak as it enters the second half. EVs continued to outperform the broader market by a wide margin, with the EV sub-index up 12.0% year-on-year and 1.7% from May, as a growing wave of off-lease returns is broadening dealer and retail inventory rather than depressing values — at least for now. Dealer demand remained healthy, with the sales conversion rate at 57.5%, still 2.6 percentage points above the three-year June average despite easing from spring levels, and wholesale days’ supply finishing the month at 26.9 days — slightly above last year but within seasonal norms. The primary risk flagged for the second half is the accelerating ramp in off-lease supply, particularly EVs, which Gregory warned could pressure specific segments even if the headline index holds steady, with pump prices above $4.00 remaining a secondary headwind on consumer purchasing power heading into summer.  

5th Jun 2026

Key takeaway: The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for May 2026, released on June 5, showed wholesale used-vehicle prices stabilising after April’s pullback but coming in softer than seasonal norms would suggest. The seasonally adjusted index edged up 0.3% month-over-month to 212.6, recovering modestly from April’s 1.6% decline — the first monthly fall in six months — though the gain was well below the long-run May average of 0.9% and reflected a market normalising from the multi-year high set in March. On a non-adjusted basis, prices were up 3.1% year-over-year but down 1.2% against April, with the standout story in May being the continued outperformance of EVs — the EV sub-index rose 11.9% year-on-year and 3.5% from April, even as greater supply came to market — while SUVs were the weakest major segment and the only one lagging the overall index. Cox Automotive noted that wholesale value trends are continuing to normalise from a strong start to the year, with higher gas prices weighing on consumer sentiment as the market moves into summer months, while sales conversion data pointed to a further softening of demand even as conversion rates remain above seasonal norms. The May read puts the MUVVI in an interesting position heading into the back half of 2026 — prices are holding meaningfully above year-ago levels, which will feed into used vehicle components of CPI, but the loss of momentum from the February-March surge suggests the conflict-driven front-loading of vehicle purchases that buoyed the market in Q1 is fading.  

7th May 2026
Key takeaway: The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for April 2026, released on May 7, showed the first monthly decline in six months as the spring demand surge faded and energy costs began squeezing consumer budgets. The MUVVI fell to 211.9 — down 1.6% month-on-month, against the long-term average monthly move of a 0.7% increase for April — though wholesale prices remained up 1.8% year-on-year on an adjusted basis. Cox Automotive chief economist Jeremy Robb struck a measured tone, noting that the April decline reflects normal seasonal depreciation patterns rather than outright weakness, with values still elevated against long-term averages for this time of year. The segment picture was sharply divergent: non-EV prices dropped 2.2% month-on-month while EV prices rose 1.4%, with the EV Index up 7.2% year-on-year as affordability concerns drive consumers toward used electric vehicles as a viable alternative to high fuel costs. The Iran war energy shock was a dominant theme — gas prices hit a year-to-date high and are now up 47% since end-February, soaking up a meaningful portion of consumers’ discretionary income with no end in sight — a dynamic that is reshaping demand patterns across the used vehicle market heading into summer.  

7th Apr 2026
Key takeaway: The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) for March 2026, released on April 7, showed a robust acceleration in wholesale used-vehicle prices. The index rose to 215.3, up 1.4% month-on-month and 6.2% year-over-year — the highest level since the summer of 2023 — well above the long-term average monthly move for March which is flat. Cox Automotive chief economist Jeremy Robb attributed the strength to a powerful combination of demand tailwinds: sales conversion rates were higher year-over-year for every week but one in Q1, and higher-than-average tax refunds — running roughly 10% above last year’s pace — helped activate pent-up demand, pushing used-retail sales approximately 2% above year-ago levels. Inventory also tightened meaningfully, with wholesale days’ supply falling to 24.5 days at end-March, supporting firmer pricing. Across segments, all major vehicle segments posted year-on-year gains, with luxury continuing to outperform and EVs particularly strong — up 7.9% year-over-year — with Manheim setting a Q1 record for wholesale EV volume. Looking ahead, Cox Automotive expects the index to rise approximately 2% by year-end, though the end of March typically marks the seasonal pricing peak and the Middle East conflict remains a key risk to the outlook.  

6th Mar 2026

Key takeaway: The latest release of the Manheim Used Car Index showed used car prices increased 0.8% m-o-m on a mix, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis. The Index increased to 212.3 which translates to a 4.0% on a y-o-y basis. The 2% CPI target has been notoriously difficult to achieve over the past 12-18 months. Core goods inflation, which was in outright deflationary territory during most of 2024 has been accelerating through 2025, though it has levelled off in the past 2-3 months. On the other hand, core services inflation had been high and sticky in early 2024 causing the overall CPI to remain around the 3% level even though core goods were deflating. Eventually, core services inflation started to gradually come down in late 2024 and 2025 with Shelter inflation finally showing signs of decline. However, with a rise in electricity and piped gas services costs in 2025, core services inflation has remained sticky around the 3.0% level, causing overall core CPI to once again remain stuck around the 3% level. A further increase in goods inflation from tariffs might cause the core CPI to climb above 3.5%. It is for this reason that the rising trend in the Manheim Used Car Index seen from late 2024 till 1H 2025 was worth noting. The Manheim Index data showed used car prices accelerated rapidly during a few months in the first half of 2025. However, since then, the Index cooled down and mostly printed soft numbers in the second half of 2025. January started off on a strong footing for the used car market with the index posting a sharp rise of 2.4% and that trend has continued with a 0.8% increase in February. The upcoming tax refund season is likely to help buyers on affordability to make some of these big ticket purchases, like cars. Usually increases in the Manheim Index flow through to the official CPI data with a few months lag. The used car prices component within the broader CPI basket had mostly printed negative y-o-y numbers for most of 2023 and 2024. However, that component of CPI gradually rose in 2025 and reached a level of around 6% in August 2025, but since then has come down towards 0%. If the Manheim Index continues to rise, we can expect similar results in the official CPI data as well. That would be a concern from an inflation perspective, especially given the political pressure on lowering rates.   

6th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: The latest release of the Manheim Used Car Index showed used car prices increased 2.4% m-o-m on a mix, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis. The Index increased to 210.4 which translates to a 2.4% on a y-o-y basis. The 2% CPI target has been notoriously difficult to achieve over the past 12-18 months. Core goods inflation, which was in outright deflationary territory during most of 2024 has been accelerating through 2025. On the other hand, core services inflation had been high and sticky in early 2024 causing the overall CPI to remain around the 3% level even though core goods were deflating. Eventually, core services inflation started to gradually come down in late 2024 and 2025 with Shelter inflation finally showing signs of decline. However, with a rise in electricity and piped gas services costs in 2025, core services inflation has remained sticky around the 3.6% level, causing overall core CPI to once again remain stuck around the 3% level. A further increase in goods inflation from tariffs might cause the core CPI to climb above 3.5%. It is for this reason that the rising trend in the Manheim Used Car Index seen from late 2024 till 1H 2025 was worth noting. The Manheim Index data showed used car prices accelerated rapidly during a few months in the first half of 2025. However, since then, the Index cooled down and mostly printed soft numbers in the second half of 2025. January has started off on a strong footing for the used car market with the index posting a sharp rise of 2.4%. The upcoming tax refund season is likely to help buyers on affordability to make some of these big ticket purchases, like cars. Usually increases in the Manheim Index flow through to the official CPI data with a few months lag. The used car prices component within the broader CPI basket had mostly printed negative y-o-y numbers for most of 2023 and 2024. However, that component of CPI gradually rose in 2025 and reached a level of around 6% in recent months. If the Manheim Index continues to rise, we can expect similar results in the official CPI data as well. That would be a concern from an inflation perspective, especially given the political pressure on lowering rates.   

8th Jan 2026

Key takeaway: The latest release of the Manheim Used Car Index showed used car prices increased 0.1% m-o-m on a mix, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis. The Index increased to 205.5 which translates to a 0.4% on a y-o-y basis. The 2% CPI target has been notoriously difficult to achieve over the past 12-18 months. Core goods inflation, which was in outright deflationary territory during most of 2024, has been accelerating over the past year and especially so in 2025. On the other hand, core services inflation had been high and sticky in early 2024 causing the overall CPI to remain around the 3% level even though core goods were deflating. Eventually, core services inflation started to gradually come down in late 2024 and 2025 with Shelter inflation finally showing signs of decline. However, with a rise in electricity and piped gas services costs in 2025, core services inflation has remained sticky around the 3.6% level, causing overall core CPI to once again remain stuck around the 3% level. A further increase in goods inflation from tariffs might cause the core CPI to climb above 3.5%. It is for this reason that the rising trend in the Manheim Used Car Index seen from late 2024 till 1H 2025 was worth noting. The Manheim Index data showed used car prices accelerated rapidly during a few months in the first half of the year. However, since then, the Index has cooled down and mostly printed soft numbers. The used car prices component within the broader CPI basket had mostly printed negative y-o-y numbers for most of 2023 and 2024. However, that component of CPI gradually rose in 2025 and reached a level of around 6% in recent months. If the Manheim Index continues to mostly flatline, we can expect similar results in the official CPI data as well. The Manheim data usually shows up with some lag into the Used cars component of the official CPI data.   

5th Dec 2025

Key takeaway: The latest release of the Manheim Used Car Index showed used car prices increased 1.3% m-o-m on a mix, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis. The Index increased to 205.4 which translates to a mostly unchanged number on a y-o-y basis. The 2% CPI target has been notoriously difficult to achieve over the past 12-18 months. Core goods inflation, which was in outright deflationary territory during most of 2024, has been accelerating over the past year and especially so in 2025. On the other hand, core services inflation had been high and sticky in early 2024 causing the overall CPI to remain around the 3% level even though core goods were deflating. Eventually, core services inflation started to gradually come down in late 2024 and 2025 with Shelter inflation finally showing signs of decline. However, with a rise in electricity and piped gas services costs in 2025, core services inflation has remained sticky around the 3.6% level, causing overall core CPI to once again remain stuck around the 3% level. A further increase in goods inflation from tariffs might cause the core CPI to climb above 3.5%. It is for this reason that the rising trend in the Manheim Used Car Index seen from late 2024 till 1H 2025 was worth noting. The Manheim Index data showed used car prices accelerated rapidly during a few months in the first half of the year. However, since then, the Index has cooled down and mostly printed soft numbers. The used car prices component within the broader CPI basket had mostly printed negative y-o-y numbers for most of 2023 and 2024. However, that component of CPI gradually rose in 2025 and reached a level of around 6% in recent months. If the Manheim Index continues to mostly flatline, we can expect similar results in the official CPI data as well. The Manheim data usually shows up with some lag into the Used cars component of the official CPI data.   

7th Nov 2025

Key takeaway: The latest release of the Manheim Used Car Index showed used car prices dropped 2.0% m-o-m on a mix, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis. The Index decreased to 202.9 which translates to an increase of 0.3% on a y-o-y basis. The 2% CPI target has been notoriously difficult to achieve over the past 12-18 months. Core goods inflation, which was in outright deflationary territory during most of 2024, has been accelerating over the past year and especially so in 2025. On the other hand, core services inflation had been high and sticky in early 2024 causing the overall CPI to remain around the 3% level even though core goods were deflating. Eventually, core services inflation started to gradually come down in late 2024 and 2025 with Shelter inflation finally showing signs of decline. However, with a rise in electricity and piped gas services costs in 2025, core services inflation has remained sticky around the 3.6% level, causing overall core CPI to once again remain stuck around the 3% level. A further increase in goods inflation from tariffs might cause the core CPI to climb above 3.5%. It is for this reason that the rising trend in the Manheim Used Car Index seen from late 2024 till 1H 2025 was worth noting. The Manheim Index data showed used car prices accelerated rapidly during a few months in the first half of the year. However, since then, the Index has cooled down and mostly printed soft numbers. The used car prices component within the broader CPI basket had mostly printed negative y-o-y numbers for most of 2023 and 2024. However, that component of CPI gradually rose in 2025 and reached a level of around 6% in recent months. The Manheim data usually shows up with some lag into the Used cars component of the official CPI data. Based on the past 2-3 months of Manheim Index data, we can expect the used car component in the CPI to come down.  

7th Oct 2025

Key takeaway: The latest release of the Manheim Used Car Index showed used car prices were mostly unchanged m-o-m on a mix, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis. The Index increased to 207.5 which translates to an increase of 2.2% on a y-o-y basis. The 2% CPI target has been notoriously difficult to achieve over the past 12-18 months. Core goods inflation, which was in outright deflationary territory during most of 2024, has been accelerating over the past year and especially so in 2025. On the other hand, core services inflation had been high and sticky in early 2024 causing the overall CPI to remain around the 3% level even though core goods were deflating. Eventually, core services inflation started to gradually come down in late 2024 and 2025 with Shelter inflation finally showing signs of decline. However, with a rise in electricity and piped gas services costs in 2025, core services inflation has remained sticky around the 3.6% level, causing overall core CPI to once again remain stuck around the 3% level. Further increase in goods inflation from tariffs might cause the core CPI to climb above 3.5%. It is for this reason that the recent rising trend in the Manheim Used Car Index was worth noting. The Manheim Index data showed used car prices accelerated rapidly during a few months in the first half of the year. However, since then, the past 3 months of July, August and September have printed soft numbers. Moreover, even though the Index has been on an upward trend since mid 2024, the increase has not been very sharp. However, the used car prices component within the broader CPI basket has been rising since the past 8 months and stands at approx. 6% yo-y. Based on the past 2-3 months of Manheim Index data, we can expect the used car component in the CPI to come down. A significant pick up in inflation at a time when the Fed is looking to cut rates could be very disruptive for markets.     

8th Sep 2025

Key takeaway: The latest release of the Manheim Used Car Index showed used car prices increased by a marginal 0.03% m-o-m on a mix, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis. The Index increased to 207.43 which translates to an increase of 1.7% on a y-o-y basis. The 2% CPI target has been notoriously difficult to achieve over the past 12-18 months. While core goods inflation was in outright deflationary territory over the past year, core services inflation had been high and sticky causing the overall CPI to remain around the 3% level. Core services inflation started to gradually come down in late 2024 and 2025 with Shelter inflation finally showing signs of decline. However, a rise in goods inflation over the second half of 2024 was worrying as it offsets the declining core services inflation resulting in the overall Core CPI once again remaining stuck around the 3% level. It is for this reason that the recent rising trend in the Manheim Used Car Index was worth noting. Used car prices, including the Manheim Index data, have been volatile over the past few months on account of tariff related uncertainties. The Index fell 1.4% in May, increased 1.6% in June, fell 0.5% in July and has held steady in the latest month of October. Hence, it is a touch difficult to gauge the direction of used car prices presently. Even though the Index has been on an upward trend since mid 2024, the increase has not been very sharp. However, the used car prices component within the broader CPI basket has been rising since the past 6 months and stands at approx. 4.8% yo-y. This is significantly higher than used car inflation witnessed in the CPI pre-pandemic. Similar to used car prices, some market participants and policy makers, expect the next few months to provide a clearer picture on whether tariffs are proving to be inflationary. So far though, data indicates that tariffs have not yet translated in any significant downstream inflation, though some categories which are import dependent have started showing some signs of price increases. A significant pick up in inflation at a time when the Fed is looking to cut rates could be very disruptive for markets.     

8th Aug 2025

Key takeaway: The latest release of the Manheim Used Car Index showed used car prices decreased by 0.5% m-o-m on a mix, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis. The Index declined to 207.4 which translates to an increase of 2.9% on a y-o-y basis. The 2% CPI target has been notoriously difficult to achieve over the past 12-18 months. While core goods inflation was in outright deflationary territory over the past year, core services inflation had been high and sticky causing the overall CPI to remain around the 3% level. Core services inflation started to gradually come down in late 2024 and 2025 with Shelter inflation finally showing signs of decline. However, a rise in goods inflation over the second half of 2024 was worrying as it offsets the declining core services inflation resulting in the overall Core CPI once again remaining stuck around the 3% level. It is for this reason that the recent rising trend in the Manheim Used Car Index was worth noting. Used car prices, including the Manheim Index data, have been volatile over the past few months on account of tariff related uncertainties. The Index had fallen 1.4% in May, increased 1.6% in June and has fallen 0.5% this month in July according to the latest release. Hence, it is a touch difficult to gauge the direction of used car prices presently. Similar to used car prices, some market participants and policy makers, expect the next few months to provide a clearer picture on whether tariffs are proving to be inflationary. So far though, data indicates that tariffs have not yet translated in any significant downstream inflation. Over the next few months there are opposite forces at play. Car repossessions due to defaults have surged to multi-year highs according to reports from Cox automotive, which suggests falling prices ahead. At the same time, used car prices are remaining relatively resident as demand still remains strong.    

8th Jul 2025

Key takeaway: The latest release of the Manheim Used Car Index showed used car prices increased by 1.6% m-o-m on a mix, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis. The Index increased to 208.5 which translates to an increase of 6.3% on a y-o-y basis. The 2% CPI target has been notoriously difficult to achieve over the past 12-18 months. While core goods inflation was in outright deflationary territory over the past year, core services inflation had been high and sticky causing the overall CPI to remain around the 3% level. Core services inflation started to gradually come down in late 2024 and 2025 with Shelter inflation finally showing signs of decline. However, a rise in goods inflation over the second half of 2024 was worrying as it offsets the declining core services inflation resulting in the overall Core CPI once again remaining stuck around the 3% level. It is for this reason that the recent rising trend in the Manheim Used Car Index was worth noting. Used car prices, including the Manheim Index data, have been volatile over the past few months on account of tariff related uncertainties. The Index had fallen 1.4% last month and has increased 1.6% this month according to the latest release. Hence, it is a touch difficult to gauge the direction of used car prices presently. Similar to used car prices, some market participants and policy makers, expect the next few months to provide a clearer picture on whether tariffs are proving to be inflationary. Over the next few months there are opposite forces at play. Car repossessions due to defaults have surged to multi-year highs according to reports from Cox automotive, which suggests falling prices ahead. At the same time, there seems to be a surge of buyers in the new and used car market to get ahead of the automotive tariff impact.    

6th Jun 2025

Key takeaway: The latest release of the Manheim Used Car Index showed used car prices decreased by 1.4% m-o-m on a mix, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis. The Index decreased to 205.2 which translates to an increase of 4.0% on a y-o-y basis. Wholesale car prices had increased sharply in April on the back of tariffs. Used car prices are a key part of Core CPI. The sharp increase hence was viewed as concerning. Trends in the Manheim used car price index show up with a few months lag into the official CPI data.  The 2% CPI target has been notoriously difficult to achieve over the past 12-18 months. While core goods inflation was in outright deflationary territory over the past year, core services inflation has been high and sticky causing the overall CPI to remain around the 3% level. Core services is expected to gradually come down with Shelter inflation finally showing signs of decline. However, a rise in goods inflation over the second half of 2024 was worrying as it might have offset the declining core services inflation resulting in the overall CPI once again remaining stuck around the 3% level. It is for this reason that the recent rising trend in the Manheim Used Car Index was worth noting. Over the next few months there are opposite forces at play. Car repossessions due to defaults have surged to multi-year highs according to reports from Cox automotive, which suggests falling prices ahead. At the same time, there seems to be a surge of buyers in the new and used car market to get ahead of the automotive tariff impact.    

7th May 2025

Key takeaway: The latest release of the Manheim Used Car Index showed used car prices increased sharply by 2.8% m-o-m on a mix, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis. The Index increased to 208.2 which translates to an increase of 4.9% on a y-o-y basis. This is among the sharpest increases we have seen in recent months and takes the index to the highest reading since October 2023. In fact the seasonal adjustment dampened the increase this month. On a un-adjusted basis the Index value increased 3.3% compared to March. This is amongst the most visible impacts in the economy from the recent tariff increases. Used car prices for a key part of Core CPI. However, whether the increase is a one time or results in a sustained increase in car prices over the short term is an important factor to watch for. The 2% inflation target has been notoriously difficult to achieve over the past 12-18 months. While core goods inflation was in outright deflationary territory over the past year, core services inflation has been high and sticky causing the overall CPI to remain around the 3% level. Core services is expected to gradually come down with Shelter inflation finally showing signs of decline. However, a rise in goods inflation over the past 6 months is concerning given that it might offset the declining core services inflation resulting in the overall CPI once again remaining stuck around the 3% level. It is for this reason that the recent rising trend in the Manheim Used Car Index was worth noting. Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with the overall trend in the Manheim Index, used car prices in the official CPI data mostly fell over the past two years. However, used car prices component in the CPI Index has been rising since mid 2024. Over the next few months there are opposite forces at play. Car repossessions due to defaults have surged to multi-year highs according to reports from Cox automotive, which suggests falling prices ahead. At the same time, there seems to be a surge of buyers in the new and used car market to get ahead of the automotive tariff impact.    

7th Apr 2025

Key takeaway: The latest release of the Manheim Used Car Index showed used car prices decreased by 0.7% m-o-m on a mix, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis. The Index decreased to 202.6 which translates to a decrease of 0.2% on a y-o-y basis. This is the 2nd consecutive month of a 0.7% monthly decline for the Index. The Manheim Index has generally been rising through 2H 2024. The slowdown in the pace of reduction of the Index in mid 2024 and the subsequent rise since then had been concerning from an inflation perspective. The higher than expected CPI print in January and the inflationary concerns of tariffs have further added to the pressure. Hence, the latest couple of Manheim reports have showed some cooling in prices. The 2% inflation target has been notoriously difficult to achieve over the past 12-18 months. While core goods inflation was in outright deflationary territory over the past year, core services inflation has been high and sticky causing the overall CPI to remain around the 3% level. Core services is expected to gradually come down with Shelter inflation finally showing signs of decline. However, a rise in goods inflation over the past 6 months is concerning given that it might offset the declining core services inflation resulting in the overall CPI once again remaining stuck around the 3% level. It is for this reason that the recent rising trend in the Manheim Used Car Index was worth noting. Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with the overall trend in the Manheim Index, used car prices in the official CPI data mostly fell over the past two years. However, used car prices component in the CPI Index has been rising since mid 2024. Over the next few months there are opposite forces at play. Car repossessions due to defaults have surged to multi-year highs according to reports from Cox automotive, which suggests falling prices ahead. At the same time, there seems to be a surge of buyers in the new and used car market to get ahead of the automotive tariff impact.    

7th Mar 2025

Key takeaway: The latest release of the Manheim Used Car Index showed used car prices decreased by 0.7% m-o-m on a mix, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis. The Index decreased to 204.1 which translates to an increase of 0.1% on a y-o-y basis. The Manheim Index has generally been rising through 2H 2024. The slowdown in the pace of reduction of the Index in mid 2024 and the subsequent rise since then had been concerning from an inflation perspective. The higher than expected CPI print in January and the inflationary concerns of tariffs have further added to the pressure. Hence, the latest Manheim report which shows some cooling in prices is especially noteworthy. The 2% inflation target has been notoriously difficult to achieve over the past 12-18 months. While core goods inflation was in outright deflationary territory over the past year, core services inflation has been high and sticky causing the overall CPI to remain around the 3% level. Core services is expected to gradually come down with Shelter inflation finally showing signs of decline. However, a rise in goods inflation over the past 6 months is concerning given that it might offset the declining core services inflation resulting in the overall CPI once again remaining stuck around the 3% level. It is for this reason that the recent rising trend in the Manheim Used Car Index was worth noting. Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with the overall trend in the Manheim Index, used car prices in the official CPI data mostly fell over the past two years. However, used car prices component in the CPI Index has been rising since mid 2024.  

7th Feb 2025

Key takeaway: The latest release of the Manheim Used Car Index showed used car prices increased by 0.4% m-o-m on a mix, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis. The Index increased to 205.6 which translates to an increase of 0.8% on a y-o-y basis. The important point to note is that while used car prices have generally been trending down since hitting a peak in 2020 /2021, the pace of the slowdown has significantly softened in the past one year. In fact, the last couple of months data shows that Used Car prices have been increasing on a y-o-y basis. This is critical from an inflation and monetary policy perspective. The 2% inflation target has been notoriously difficult to achieve over the past 12-18 months. While core goods inflation was in outright deflationary territory over the past year, core services inflation has been high and sticky causing the overall CPI to remain around the 3% level. Core services is expected to gradually come down with Shelter inflation finally showing signs of decline. However, a rise in goods inflation over the past 6 months is concerning given that it might offset the declining core services inflation resulting in the overall CPI once again remaining stuck around the 3% level. It is for this reason that the recent rising trend in the Manheim Used Car Index is worth noting. Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with the overall trend in the Manheim Index, used car prices in the official CPI data mostly fell over the past two years. However, used car prices component in the CPI Index has been rising since mid 2024.  

7th Jan 2025

Key takeaway: The latest release of the Manheim Used Car Index showed used car prices decreased by 0.3% on a mix, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis. The Index fell to 204.8 which translates to an increase of 0.4% on a y-o-y basis. The important point to note is that while used car prices have generally been trending down since hitting a peak in 2020 /2021, the pace of the slowdown has significantly softened in the past one year. In fact, the last couple of months data shows that Used Car prices have been increasing on a y-o-y basis. The Index increased 0.2% y-o-y in November and increased 0.4% in December. Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with the overall trend in the Manheim Index, used car prices in the official CPI data have also mostly been falling over the past two years. Goods deflation (or disinflation at the minimum) remains central to achieving the 2% overall CPI objective. Also, the reduction in Used Car prices has been a key component of the fall in goods inflation over the past couple of years. Services inflation, on the other hand has remained much more sticky. Hence the key point to note about the Manheim Used Car Index is whether the decline in the Index gains pace or does the Index actually increase from here on.  

6th Dec 2024

Key takeaway: The latest release of the Manheim Used Car Index showed used car prices increased a substantial  1.3% on a m-o-m basis in November. The more important point to note is that while used car prices have generally been trending down since hitting a peak in 2020 /2021, the pace of the slowdown has significantly softened in the past one year. In fact, the latest November data shows that the Index has increased on a y-o-y basis, albeit a small 0.2%. Nonetheless, it is key to note that this is the first y-o-y increase in the Used Car price index in recent months. Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with the overall trend in the Manheim Index, used car prices in the official CPI data have also mostly been falling over the past two years. Goods deflation (or disinflation at the minimum) remains central to achieving the 2% overall CPI objective. Also, the reduction in Used Car prices has been a key component of the fall in goods inflation over the past couple of years. Services inflation, on the other hand has remained much more sticky. Hence the key point to note about the Manheim Used Car Index is whether the decline in the Index gains pace or does the Index actually increase from here on.  

7th Nov 2024

Key takeaway: The latest release of the Manheim Used Car Index showed used car prices declined a mere 0.07% on a m-o-m basis. The index had posted some decent m-o-m gains in July and August and was followed by a 0.5% drop in September. Used car prices have generally been trending down since hitting a peak in 2020 /2021. However, the pace of the slowdown has significantly softened in the past one year. Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with the overall trend in the Manheim Index, used car prices in the official CPI data have also mostly been falling over the past two years. Goods deflation (or disinflation at the minimum) remains central to achieving the 2% overall CPI objective. Also, the reduction in Used Car prices has been a key component of the fall in goods inflation over the past couple of years. Services inflation, on the other hand has remained much more sticky. Hence the key point to note about the Manheim Used Car Index is whether the decline in the Index gains pace or flatlines at the current level.  

7th Oct 2024

Key takeaway: After 2 months of m-o-m increases, the Manheim Used Car Index, decreased once again in September. Used car prices have generally been trending down since hitting a peak in 2020 /2021. However, the pace of the slowdown has significantly softened in the past one year. The Index decreased about 0.5% m-o-m on a SA basis. On a non SA basis the drop was 0.1%. Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with the overall trend in the Manheim Index, used car prices in the official CPI data have also mostly been falling over the past two years. Goods deflation (or disinflation at the minimum) remains central to achieving the 2% overall CPI objective. Hence the key point to note about the Manheim Used Car Index is whether the decline in the Index gains pace or flatlines at the current level – assuming its historical relationship / correlation to the official CPI data still holds!  

9th Sep 2024

Key takeaway: Used car prices have generally been trending down since hitting a peak in 2020 /2021. However, for a second month in a row, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index posted an increase m-o-m. The Index increased 2.8% in July and a further 1.2% in August. However, even with 2 months of data, it is too early to read into the increases. Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with the overall trend in the Manheim Index, used car prices in the official CPI data have also mostly been falling over the past two years. The latest CPI report for August showed the Used Cars and Trucks category had fallen 1.0% m-o-m. Goods deflation (or disinflation at the minimum) remains central to achieving the 2% overall CPI objective. Hence the key point to note about the Manheim Used Car Index is whether the decline in the Index gains pace or flatlines at the current level – assuming its historical relationship / correlation to the official CPI data still holds!  

7th Aug 2024

Key takeaway: In a break from the trend of recent months, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index jumped a fair bit (2.8%) in the month of July. The Index has been falling since its peak of about 260 in late 2021 and now stands at roughly 201. The pace of decline of the Index had slowed since the start of 2024. However April saw a substantial decline of 2.3% and the Index continued to decline further in May and June. Hence, it is too early to read into the latest month’s increase. Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with the overall trend in the Manheim Index, used car prices in the official CPI data have also mostly been falling over the past two years. The latest CPI report for June showed the Used Cars and Trucks category had fallen 1.5% m-o-m. Goods deflation (or disinflation at the minimum) remains central to achieving the 2% overall CPI objective. Hence the key point to note about the Manheim Used Car Index is whether the decline in the Index gains pace or flatlines at the current level – assuming its historical relationship / correlation to the official CPI data still holds!  

9th Jul 2024

Key takeaway: Similar to the previous month of May, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index declined a slight 0.6% m-o-m in June. Similar to the previous month, the move was not substantial. But the key point is that the trend continues downward. The Index has been falling since its peak of about 260 in late 2021 and now stands at roughly 196. The pace of decline of the Index had slowed at the start of the year. However April saw a substantial decline of 2.3% and the Index continued to decline further in May and June. Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with the overall trend in the Manheim Index, used car prices in the official CPI data have also mostly been falling over the past two years. The latest CPI report for May showed the Used Cars and Trucks category had increased 0.6% m-o-m. Goods deflation (or disinflation at the minimum) remains central to achieving the 2% overall CPI objective. Hence the key point to note about the Manheim Used Car Index is whether the decline in the Index gains pace or flatlines at the current level – assuming its historical relationship / correlation to the official CPI data still holds!  

7th Jun 2024

Key takeaway: The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index declined a slight 0.6% m-o-m in May. The move was not substantial. But the key point is that the trend continues downward. The Index has been falling since its peak of about 260 in late 2021 and now stands at roughly 197. The pace of decline of the Index had slowed at the start of the year. However April saw a substantial decline of 2.3% and the Index continued to decline further in May. Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with the overall trend in the Manheim Index, used car prices in the official CPI data have also mostly been falling over the past two years. The latest CPI report for April showed the Used Cars and Trucks category had fallen 1.4% m-o-m. Goods deflation (or disinflation at the minimum) remains central to achieving the 2% overall CPI objective. Hence the key point to note about the Manheim Used Car Index is whether the decline in the Index gains pace or flatlines at the current level – assuming its historical relationship / correlation to the official CPI data still holds!  

7th May 2024

Key takeaway: After nearly 4 months of muted declines, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index declined a substantial 2.3% m-o-m in April. Since reaching a peak of about 260 in late 2021, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index has been consistently falling since and now stands at 198. The key trend to note though in recent months, has been the slowdown in the pace of the fall. After falling sharply by 2.3% in October and 2.1% in November, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index had moderated a bit and was down only 0.5% in December. Subsequently the Index had in fact been flat on a m-o-m basis in January. The Index fell a marginal 0.1% in February and 0.4% in March. The slowdown in the pace of decline of the Index was a cause of concern from a CPI perspective. Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with the overall trend in the Manheim Index, used car prices in the official CPI data have also mostly been falling over the past two years. The Used Car and Trucks category in the official CPI has been generally falling at an average of approximately 1% every month in 2023. However, the November 2023 CPI data had shown that Used Cars and Trucks inflation accelerated a bit at +1.6% over previous month. Similarly, Used Cars and Trucks also registered a positive 0.5% increase in December. With a couple of months of acceleration in the used car and trucks component of the CPI, there was some concern whether we would continue to see used car prices going up again. However, used car prices were down once again in the CPI for the January (by -3.4%(, then marginally higher (+0.5%) in February and then down again by 1.1% in March. The latest reading of the Index indicates a downward acceleration once again. However, it also might be too early to come to that conclusion. The negative 2.3% reading in April was substantially on account of seasonal factors. The un-adjusted price in April decreased by 0.6% compared to March. A close watch on this key private indicator can provide substantial clues about the future trend of the official CPI indicator.  

5th Apr 2024

Key takeaway: Since reaching a peak of about 260 in late 2021, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index has been consistently falling since and now stands at 203. The key trend to note though in recent months, has been the slowdown in the pace of the fall. After falling sharply by 2.3% in October and 2.1% in November, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index had moderated a bit and was down only 0.5% in December. Subsequently the Index had in fact been flat on a m-o-m basis in January. The Index fell a marginal 0.1% in February and 0.4% in March based on the latest release of the Index by Manheim on 5th April. Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with this trend, used car prices in the official CPI data have also mostly been falling over the past two years. The Used Car and Trucks category in the official CPI has been generally falling at an average of approximately 1% every month in 2023. However, the November 2023 CPI data had shown that Used Cars and Trucks inflation accelerated a bit at +1.6% over previous month. Similarly, Used Cars and Trucks also registered a positive 0.5% increase in December. With a couple of months of acceleration in the used car and trucks component of the CPI, there was some concern whether we would continue to see used car prices going up again. However, used car prices were down once again in the CPI for the January (by -3.4%) and then marginally higher (+0.5%) in February. The key point to note is that the Manheim Index shows that the large drops in Used car prices are behind us. The Index has been more or less flat for the past 6 months. Accordingly, it is difficult to presume significant deflationary inputs from the Used Car category in the official CPI data. There is a lot riding on goods deflation or disinflation because Services inflation has not been reducing at a fast enough rate to bring total inflation down. Any reduction in goods disinflation may put upward pressure on the overall CPI and push out rate cuts even further into the year. 

7th Mar 2024

Key takeaway: Since reaching a peak of about 260 in late 2021, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index has been consistently falling since and now stands at 203. The key trend to note though in recent months, has been the slowdown in the pace of the fall. After falling sharply by 2.3% in October and 2.1% in November, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index had moderated a bit and was down only 0.5% in December. Subsequently the Index had in fact been flat on a m-o-m basis in January. The Index fell a marginal 0.1% in February based on the latest release of the Index by Manheim on 7th March. Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with this trend, used car prices in the official CPI data have also mostly been falling over the past two years. The Used Car and Trucks category in the official CPI has been generally falling at an average of approximately 1% every month in 2023. However, the November 2023 CPI data had shown that Used Cars and Trucks inflation accelerated a bit at +1.6% over previous month. Similarly, Used Cars and Trucks also registered a positive 0.5% increase in December. With a couple of months of acceleration in the used car and trucks component of the CPI, there was some concern whether we would continue to see used car prices going up again. However, used car prices were down once again in the CPI for the January (by -3.4%). There is a lot riding on goods deflation or disinflation because Services inflation has not been reducing at a fast enough rate to bring total inflation down. Any reduction in goods disinflation may put upward pressure on the overall CPI and push out rate cuts even further into the year. 

7th Feb 2024

Key takeaway: After falling sharply by 2.3% in October and 2.1% in November, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index had moderated a bit and was down only 0.5% in December. Continuing that trend of moderation, the Index was mostly flat on a m-o-m basis in January. The Index is still substantially down (9.2%) on a y-o-y basis. Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with this trend, used car prices in the official CPI data have also fallen in the recent months. The Used Car and Trucks category in the official CPI has been generally falling at an average of approximately 1% every month in 2023. However, the November 2023 CPI data had shown that Used Cars and Trucks inflation accelerated a bit at +1.6% over previous month. Similarly, Used Cars and Trucks also registered a positive 0.5% increase in December. Even with the moderation in decreases in the Used Car Prices, it is unlikely that we will see a massive uptick in used car prices and hence the used car component in the official CPI data is likely to continue to be negative going forward. However, there is a lot riding on goods deflation or disinflation because Services inflation has not been reducing at a fast enough rate to bring total inflation down. Any reduction in goods disinflation may put upward pressure on the overall CPI and push out rate cuts even further into the year. 

8th Jan 2024

Key takeaway: After falling sharply by 2.3% in October and 2.1% in November, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index moderated a bit and was down only 0.5% in December. The Index is down 7.0% on a y-o-y basis. And compared to December 2021, it is down nearly 21%! Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with this trend, used car prices in the official CPI data have also fallen in the recent months. The Used Car and Trucks category in the official CPI has been generally falling at an average of approximately 1% every month in 2023. The latest November 2023 CPI data showed Used Cars and Trucks inflation accelerated a bit in November at +1.6% over previous month. However, it is unlikely that we will see a massive uptick in used car prices and hence the used car component in the official CPI data is likely to continue to be negative going forward. This leading indicator continues to strongly point towards a disinflationary or even deflationary trend in used car prices in the official CPI calculation. This lends further credence to the possible scenario that inflation meets the Fed target sooner than expected and bolsters chances of a sooner-than-later Fed rate cut in 2024.  

7th Dec 2023

Key takeaway: After falling sharply by 2.3% in October, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell once again sharply by 2.1% in November. The Index is down 5.8% on a y-o-y basis. Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with this trend, used car prices in the official CPI data have also fallen in the recent months. The recent increases in the Index in the past couple of months (August and September) have been marginal. And October and November have recorded a substantial decline. This leading indicator continues to strongly point towards a disinflationary or even deflationary trend in used car prices in the official CPI calculation. This lends further credence to the possibility that inflation meets the Fed target sooner than expected and bolsters chances of a sooner-than-later Fed rate cut next year. 

7th Nov 2023

Key takeaway: After 2 months of increases in the Manheim Index of Used Car Prices, October was back in familiar territory of decline in the index. In the latest print of the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, used car prices decreased in the month of October (by 2.3% on a SA basis). The Index is down 4.0% on a y-o-y basis. Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with this trend, used car prices in the official CPI data had also fallen in the recent months. The recent increases in the Index in the past couple of months (August and September) have been marginal. And October has recorded a substantial decline. This leading indicator continues to point at a disinflationary trend in used car prices in the official CPI calculation.    

6th Oct 2023

Key takeaway: After 5 continuous months of m-o-m decreases in wholesale used vehicle prices, August had brought a stop to the declining trend when the index increased a small 0.2% m-o-m. In the latest print of the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, used car prices increased a bit further in the month of September (by 1.0% on a SA basis). Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with this trend, used car prices in the official CPI data had also fallen in the recent months. For now, the increases in the Index are marginal. However, any large increases in the index, even though less likely, will be keenly watched by market participants. Another factor to watch out for are increased prices in the new vehicle market from extended strikes at the automakers.   

8th Sep 2023

Key takeaway: After 5 continuous months of m-o-m decreases in wholesale used vehicle prices, August brought a stop to the declining trend.  Prices increased a small 0.2% m-o-m. Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with this trend, used car prices in the official CPI data have also fallen in the recent months. We are likely to continue to see a drop in the used car prices component in the CPI. However, it will be key to track if the Manheim Index has bottomed.  

10th Aug 2023

Key takeaway: Wholesale used vehicle prices continued to drop in July. However, the pace of decline slowed. The Manheim Used Car Price Index fell 1.6% m-o-m in July, slower than the 4.2% drop in June. Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with this trend, used car prices in the official CPI data have also fallen in the past 2 months. Hence, any slowdown in falling prices or rise in the Manheim Index, can signal goods inflation in future CPI data.  

7th Jul 2023

Key takeaway: Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. Hence the sharp rise in used vehicle prices seen in the first 3 months of 2023 was concerning from a sticky inflation perspective. However, the Manheim Used Vehicle Price Index has now fallen for 3 continuous months since April 2023. The used car price index fell 4.2% in June from May. The Index is now 10% lower than a year ago.  This 4.2% monthly drop is the largest decline since the start of the pandemic when the Index had plunged 11%. The core goods deflation story is hence well supported by the Manheim Used Car Index data. 

8th Jun 2023

Key takeaway: Past statistical analyses have shown that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the used car component of the official CPI basket calculations with a lag of 3-4 months. Hence the sharp rise in used vehicle prices seen in the first 3 months of 2023 was concerning from a sticky inflation perspective. However, the Manheim Used Vehicle Price Index fell subsequently in April (3% m-o-m on a seasonally adjusted basis and 4.4% from a year ago). That fall in prices continued in the month of May as well. The Index decreased back again in May: 2.7% m-o-m on a seasonally adjusted basis and 7.6% from a year ago. While 2 months don’t make a trend, it indeed does provide a data point to watch out for as broader consumer demand wanes in the economy and recessionary clouds gather. 

15th May 2023

Key takeaway: After 4 successive readings of m-o-m increases, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index decreased back again : 3% m-o-m on a seasonally adjusted basis and 4.4% from a year ago. The continual increase during the first few months of 2023 in used vehicle prices was a cause of concern. Past statistical analysis shows that trends in private measures of used vehicle prices show up in the official CPI basket with a lag of 3-4 months. In line with this past historical behaviour, used vehicle price index was up in the latest release of the April CPI (4.4% m-o-m).  However, the increasing trend in the Manheim Index was broken with the latest release and it will be key to observe if this index resumes its downward trend or April was an exception to an otherwise increasing prices trend noted so far in 2023. 

7th Apr 2023

Key takeaway: Wholesale used vehicle prices fell the sharpest and largest on a y-o-y basis in 2022 – contributing to the decline in headline CPI from a high of 9.1% to 6.5% by year end. Declining goods inflation and resilient services inflation has been the key theme for much of 2H 2022. Understandably, the Fed is also highly reliant on a rapid disinflation in the core goods space to bring overall CPI down (along with a slowdown in housing and core services ex-housing). Used car prices are a key component of goods inflation. Unfortunately, private indicators of used car prices have shown re-acceleration in the past couple of months. Used Car Prices, on a seasonally adjusted basis, had increased for 3 consecutive months in Dec 2022, Jan and Feb 2023 (0.8%, 2.5% and a whopping 4.3%!). The Manheim Used Car Price index showed wholesale used vehicle prices once again increased 1.5% in March from February. The index is still down 2.4% on a y-o-y basis. But the m-o-m increases increase the risk of a re-acceleration of core goods inflation in the benchmark CPI measure. Historical data shows that used car prices in the official CPI data lags by about 3-4 months from private measures of used car prices like the Manheim Index.  

7th Mar 2023

Key takeaway: As much as Chairman Powell’s exuberance about disinflation at and prior to the last FOMC conference was based on initial softening data on core services ex housing (which now stands revised and upended), it was equally based on a rapid disinflation in the core goods space. Used car prices are a key component of goods inflation. The flagship story of the pandemic – Used car prices shot up during the peak of the pandemic as automobile supply chains got disrupted and buyer demand shot through the roof as millions moved out from cities to the suburbs. 2022, on the other hand, was all about deflation in goods as supply chains came back to normal and consumer demand moderated. It was no surprise then that the Manheim Used Car Prices Index fell 15% on a year on year basis in December 2022. However, one of the most important developments in early 2023 has been the pick up in used car prices as tracked by this index (and not yet reflected in the Used Car and Trucks Prices category of the widely tracked BLS CPI Index). Used Car Prices, on a seasonally adjusted basis, have increased for 3 consecutive months in Dec 2022, Jan and Feb 2023 (0.8%, 2.5% and a whopping 4.3%!) While there might be some seasonality factors affecting these numbers, the increase is concerning and worth tracking closely.  

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index is a measure of used vehicle prices in the US (excluding heavy trucks and motorcycles). By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used car prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of the vehicles being sold. The Index broadly measures prices car dealerships pay for used cars at auctions.

Manheim