US Macro Updates

The One Stop Portal for US Macroeconomic Data. Simplified and Summarized! 

We simplify and summarize key data so that you don’t have to spend hours reading confusing and long media releases. Read key economic releases and major events here in under 2 minutes. And we will explain the key takeaway for you. Stay informed and form a robust view on macroeconomic matters to aid your successful investment decisions

6th Jul 2026

ISM US Services PMI

Key takeaway: The ISM Services PMI for July 2026, released August 5, edged up 0.1 points to 54.1 — slightly below the roughly 54.5 consensus estimate but extending the sector’s expansion to a 25th consecutive month and holding above its seven-month-rising 12-month average of 53.4. The composite’s steadiness masked a much stronger story underneath: the Business Activity Index jumped 3.7 points to 59.1, a five-month high, while New Orders accelerated to 57.2 from 55.1, pointing to resilient consumer demand. Employment was the sour note, falling back into contraction at 47.4 after just one month above 50 — now below 50 in 12 of the last 18 months — a notable divergence from both the S&P Global services survey’s strongest job creation in eight months and from manufacturing’s own return to hiring growth in July. Prices reversed sharply higher, up 2.6 points to back above 70 for the fourth time in five months, pushing the 12-month average to its highest since April 2023, as ISM Services Chair Steve Miller noted elevated financing costs and prices paid are prompting firms to raise capital expenditure plans even as they hold off on hiring. Thirteen of 18 industries expanded, and tariff- and Middle East-related commentary was notably less frequent than in prior reports. Taken together, a services sector still growing solidly on demand but reheating on prices while quietly shedding jobs complicates the Fed’s calculus — it’s not the clean “growth cooling, inflation cooling” combination that would open the door to easing.

6th Jul 2026

Key takeaway: The ISM Services PMI for June 2026, released on July 6, showed the sector cooling modestly from May’s pace while delivering a notable turn in the labor market. The headline index slipped 0.5 percentage points to 54.0% — matching consensus and marking a 24th consecutive month of expansion for services and a 73rd straight month for the broader economy — with Business Activity easing 2.3 points to 55.4% and New Orders down 2.2 points to 55.1%. The standout shift was employment: the Employment Index jumped 3.3 points to 51.2%, its first expansion in four months and largest increase since 2024, a marked contrast with manufacturing’s employment gauge, which remained in contraction at 49.7% that same month. Prices offered further relief, falling 3.6 points to 67.7% — a four-month low and the first sub-70% reading since February — as ISM Chair Steve Miller pointed to WTI crude’s more than 30% slide below $70 a barrel amid easing Persian Gulf tensions. Backlog of Orders bucked the softening trend, climbing 3.6 points to 54.9%, its second-highest level in nearly four years and a fifth straight month of expansion, even as fewer industries reported growth — 14 of 18, down from 17 in May. Miller said supply chains are “stabilizing amid sustained business activity,” giving firms confidence for “selective, yet modest” hiring, with World Cup-related staffing cited as a contributor. Taken together, a services sector still expanding but decelerating, alongside cooling prices and an unexpected employment rebound, points to a soft-landing narrative gaining traction rather than an economy overheating or stalling.

3rd Jun 2026

Key takeaway: The ISM Services PMI for May 2026, released on June 3, came in ahead of expectations and reinforced a services sector that continues to expand with broadening momentum. The headline index rose 0.9 percentage points to 54.5% — beating the consensus forecast of 53.7% and marking the 23rd consecutive month of expansion — with Business Activity up 1.8 points to 57.7% and New Orders jumping 3.8 points to 57.3%, the latter running 2.6 percentage points above its 12-month average. May marked the fifth consecutive month of improvement in the 12-month PMI average, which has risen 1.1 percentage points since December 2025 to 52.8%, suggesting the expansion is becoming more durable rather than merely volatile around a flat trend. The price picture was the sharpest concern in the release: the Prices Index climbed to 71.3% — its highest since August 2022 — with petroleum-related products appearing as a commodity up in price for the first time, a signal that conflict-driven energy cost pass-through is now reaching the services sector in ways it had not yet in April. Taken alongside the Manufacturing PMI released two days earlier, the May ISM pair presents a US economy expanding on both sides of the ledger but at the cost of the most sustained price pressure since 2022 — a combination that gives the Fed little cover to ease even as growth momentum in services remains solid.

5th May 2026
Key takeaway: The ISM Services PMI for April 2026, released on May 5, showed the services sector maintaining solid expansion while flashing increasingly worrying signals on prices and employment. The headline index edged down 0.4 percentage points to 53.6% — just below the 53.7% consensus forecast — marking the 22nd consecutive month of expansion, with Business Activity rising 2 points to 55.9%. The key concern was the sharp deterioration in new orders: the New Orders Index plunged 7.1 points to 53.5% — the sharpest monthly drop in three years — as the surge in prices since the outbreak of the Iran war dented consumer volume orders and dimmed the production outlook. The Prices Index held unchanged at 70.7% for a second consecutive month — the highest since October 2022 — with all 18 services industries reporting higher input costs in April and none reporting prices lower. ISM Chair Steve Miller warned that prices will remain elevated for several more months even if the Iran war ends immediately, as the petroleum cost shock continues to flow through global supply chains. Employment contracted for a second consecutive month at 48.0%, and combined with manufacturing employment at 46.4%, both ISM surveys are now flashing labour-side cooling alongside persistent price pressure — a combination that is hardening the view that rate cuts in 2026 are no longer a base case.  

6th Apr 2026
Key takeaway: The ISM Services PMI for March 2026, released on April 6, showed the US services sector holding in expansion territory but with notable internal strains. The headline index came in at 54.0%, down 2.1 percentage points from February’s 56.1%, marking the 21st consecutive month of expansion and the sector’s second-highest reading since October 2024. Beneath the headline, the picture was mixed: the New Orders Index surged to 60.6% — its highest since February 2023 — while Business Activity eased sharply to 53.9% from 59.9%, and the Employment Index fell into contraction at 45.2%, the lowest since December 2023. The most alarming sub-index was prices — the Prices Index jumped to 70.7%, the highest since October 2022, driven by higher oil and fuel costs, while the Supplier Deliveries Index also worsened, reflecting shipping disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict. ISM chair Steve Miller noted that the predominant commentary in March was dominated by Iran conflict impacts and energy cost pass-through, with companies building up inventories to withstand supply chain disruptions, while tariff impacts took a back seat to geopolitical concerns.  

4th Mar 2026

Key takeaway: The latest ISM Services PMI released by the Institute for Supply Management came in at 56.1 for February, up from 53.8 in January and well above market expectations of around 53.5. The increase was driven by stronger business activity (59.9) and new orders (58.6), both of which accelerated meaningfully during the month. The employment index also remained in expansion territory at 51.8, marking a third consecutive month of growth. Meanwhile, the prices index eased to 63, suggesting some moderation in input cost pressures even though it remains elevated. Overall, the report points to a re-acceleration in the services sector, with demand conditions strengthening and activity levels reaching their highest since mid-2022, indicating that the services side of the US economy continues to expand at a solid pace.  

4th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: The latest ISM Services report for the month of January registered at 53.8, same as the previous month of December. The print was also mostly in line with consensus expectations. Even though the Services sector has held up very well in the past 3 years, doubts have been growing over the resilience of the sector in the face of global uncertainties. Nonetheless, the overall index driven by robust business activity and healthy new orders continues to be steady and performing better than its manufacturing counterpart. The headline PMI has mostly been in expansion territory in most months for the past 3 years. However, it has occasionally dipped below 50 in contractionary territory. For instance, PMIs had generally weakened during Q3 2024 only to surge back up again during the final months of 2024 and early 2025. Similarly the headline PMI dipped below 50 in September 2025 and has posted 4 consecutive months of increases since then. The New Orders Index remained in expansionary territory at 53.1. The Employment Index rose in December into expansion territory for the first time in 7 months, rising from 48.9 to 52.0. It has now fallen a bit back to 50.3. The Prices Paid index remained elevated at 66.1. Tariffs have not yet resulted in any meaningful increase in downstream consumer inflation. One key point to note though is that most PMI data have been indicating that while input prices have increased, selling prices have not increased at the same rate i.e. businesses have been absorbing some of the price increases.  

7th Jan 2026

Key takeaway: The latest ISM Services report for the month of December registered at 54.4, modestly higher than the 52.6 recorded in November. The print was also slightly higher than consensus expectations of 52.2. Even though the Services sector has held up very well in the past 3 years, doubts have been growing over the resilience of the sector in the face of global uncertainties. Nonetheless, the overall index driven by robust business activity continues to be steady and performing better than its manufacturing counterpart. The headline PMI has mostly been in expansion territory in most months for the past 3 years. However, it has occasionally dipped below 50 in contractionary territory. For instance, PMIs had generally weakened during Q3 2024 only to surge back up again during the final months of 2024 and early 2025. Similarly the headline PMI dipped below 50 in September 2025 and has posted 3 consecutive months of increases since then. The New Orders Index remained in expansionary territory, improving from 52.9 to 57.9. The Employment Index rose into expansion territory for the first time in 7 months, rising from 48.9 to 52.0. The Prices Paid index declined further from 65.4 to 64.3, though at 64.3 it remains higher than pre-pandemic trends. Tariffs have not yet resulted in any meaningful increase in downstream consumer inflation. One key point to note though is that most PMI data have been indicating that while input prices have increased, selling prices have not increased at the same rate i.e. businesses have been absorbing some of the price increases.  

3rd Dec 2025

Key takeaway: The latest ISM Services report for the month of November registered at 52.6, slightly higher than the 52.4 recorded in October. The print was also slightly higher than consensus expectations of 52.0. Even though the Services sector has held up very well in the past 3 years, doubts have been growing over the resilience of the sector in the face of global uncertainties. Nonetheless, the overall index driven by robust business activity continues to be steady and performing better than its manufacturing counterpart.  The headline PMI has mostly been in expansion territory in most months for the past 3 years. However, it has occasionally dipped below 50 in contractionary territory. For instance, PMIs had generally weakened during Q3 2024 only to surge back up again during the final months of 2024 and early 2025. It needs to be seen if we will see a similar story in 2025-26. The New Orders Index remained in expansionary territory, though declining from 56.2 to 52.9. The Employment Index remained mostly flat, but at 48.9, it continues to be in contractionary territory. The Prices Paid index declined from 70.0 to 65.0, though at 65.0 it remains higher than pre-pandemic trends. Concerns about inflation from tariffs have been centerstage since April. In fact, PMI data had been indicating an upsurge in input prices even before the tariff announcements. The tariffs seemed to make it worse. However, it is equally worth noting that the tariffs have not yet resulted in any meaningful increase in downstream consumer inflation. One key point to note though is that most PMI data have been indicating that while input prices have increased, selling prices have not increased at the same rate i.e. businesses have been absorbing some of the price increases.  

5th Nov 2025

Key takeaway: The latest ISM Services report for the month of October registered at 52.4, higher than the 50.0 recorded in September. The print was also higher than consensus expectations of 50.7. Even though the Services sector has held up very well in the past 3 years, doubts have been growing over the resilience of the sector in the face of global uncertainties. The headline PMI has mostly been in expansion territory in most months for the past 3 years. However, it has occasionally dipped below 50 in contractionary territory. For instance, PMIs had generally weakened during Q3 2024 only to surge back up again during the final months of 2024 and early 2025. It needs to be seen if we will see a similar story in 2025-26. The New Orders Index remained in expansionary territory, also rising sharply from 50.4 to 56.2. Business Activity Index also increased from 49.9 to 54.3. The Employment Index also rose from 47.2 to 48.2, though it remained in contractionary territory. The Prices Paid index rose marginally from 69.4 to 70.0 and it remains at a fairly elevated level. Concerns about inflation from tariffs have been centerstage for the past few months. In fact, PMI data had been indicating an upsurge in Input prices even before the tariff announcements. The tariffs seemed to make it worse. However, it is equally worth noting that the tariffs have not yet resulted in any meaningful increase in downstream consumer inflation. One key point to note though is that most PMI data have been indicating that while input prices have increased, selling prices have not increased at the same rate i.e. businesses have been absorbing some of the price increases.  

3rd Oct 2025

Key takeaway: The latest ISM Services report for the month of September came in at 50.0, lower than the 52.0 recorded in August. The print was also lower than consensus expectations of 51.8. Even though the Services sector has held up very well in the past 3 years, doubts have been growing over the resilience of the sector in the face of global uncertainties. The headline PMI has mostly been in expansion territory in most months for the past 3 years. However, it has occasionally dipped below 50 in contractionary territory. For instance, PMIs had generally weakened during Q3 2024 only to surge back up again during the final months of 2024 and early 2025. It needs to be seen if we will see a similar story in 2025-26. The New Orders Index remained in expansionary territory, though it fell sharply from 56.0 to 50.4. Business Activity Index also decreased from 55.0 to 49.9. Even though it is marginally in contractionary territory, this is the first time since May 2020 that the Business Activity Index has fallen below 50. The Employment and Prices Paid indexes remained as sour as they have been in the recent few months. Even though the Employment Index improved marginally from 46.5 to 47.2, it remained in contraction territory for the fourth month in a row. This comes on the heels of some weak jobs data in recent months. On the other hand, the Prices Paid Index remains very high at 69.4. Concerns about inflation from tariffs have been centerstage for the past few months. In fact, PMI data had been indicating an upsurge in Input prices even before the tariff announcements. The tariffs seemed to make it worse. One key point to note though is that most PMI data have been indicating that while input prices have increased, selling prices have not increased at the same rate i.e. businesses have been absorbing some of the price increases.  

3rd Oct 2025

Key takeaway: The latest ISM Services report for the month of August came in at 52.0, higher than the 50.1 recorded in July. The print was also higher than consensus expectations of 50.9. The latest print is the third month in a row of an expansionary number. Even though the Services sector has held up very well in the past 3 years, doubts have been growing over the resilience of the sector in the face of global uncertainties. Hence, the latest positive print comes as welcome relief. Services PMI has dipped below during the first half of the year in both prior years only to rebound again in the second half. It shall be seen if that story plays out once again in 2025. The New Orders Index remained in expansionary territory, improving sharply from 50.3 to 56.0. Business Activity Index also increased from 52.6 to 55.0. The Employment and Prices Paid indexes remained as sour as they have been in the recent few months. Even though the Employment Index improved marginally from 46.4 to 46.5, it remained in contraction territory for the third month in a row. This comes on the heels of some weak jobs data in recent months. On the other hand, the Prices Paid Index remains very high at 69.2. Concerns about inflation from tariffs have been centerstage for the past few months. In fact, PMI data had been indicating an upsurge in Input prices even before the tariff announcements. The tariffs seemed to make it worse. One key point to note though is that most PMI data have been indicating that while input prices have increased, selling prices have not increased at the same rate i.e. businesses have been absorbing some of the price increases.  

5th Aug 2025

Key takeaway: The latest ISM Services report for the month of July came in at 50.1, slightly lower than the 50.8 recorded in June. The print was lower than consensus expectations of 51.5. While the latest print is the second month in a row of an expansionary number, the print was still lower than both last month’s print and the consensus expectations. The overall notes from the print were quite bearish. Even though the Services sector has held up very well in the past 3 years, doubts have been growing over the resilience of the sector in the face of global uncertainties. Services PMI has dipped below during the first half of the year in both prior years only to rebound again in the second half. The New Orders Index weakened from 51.3 to 50.3. Business Activity Index declined from 54.2 to 52.6. However, the worst news came from the Employment and Prices Paid indexes. The Employment Index fell from 47.2 to 46.4. This comes on the heels of a super weak NFP print last Friday which adds to the fears of a slowdown. On the other hand, the Prices Paid Index increased from 67.5 to 69.9. Concerns about inflation from tariffs has been centerstage for the past few months. In fact, PMI data have been indicating an upsurge in Input prices even before the tariff announcements. The tariffs seem to make it worse. One key point to note though is that most PMI data have been indicating that while input prices have increased, selling prices have not increased at the same rate i.e. businesses have been absorbing some of the price increases.  

3rd Jul 2025

Key takeaway: The latest ISM Services report for the month of June in at 50.8 in line with consensus expectations. The headline print higher than the 49.9 recorded the previous month in May. The latest print takes the headline number back again above 50 (i.e in expansion territory), after having dipped below 50 in May. The last time the ISM services PMI had recorded a below 50 print was June 2024. May 2025 was only the 4th month in the past 5 years when ISM Services has recorded a print below 50. The New Orders Index jumped up sharply from 46.4 to 51.3. Business Activity Index also rose from the previous month. However, the employment index fell substantially from 50.7 to 47.2. The release coincided with the NFP report on the same day which showed job gains outperformed expectations. The Prices Paid Index remained elevated even though it declined from 68.7 to 67.5. Concerns about inflation from tariffs has been centerstage for the past few months. In fact, PMI data have been indicating an upsurge in Input prices even before the tariff announcements. One key point to note though is that most PMI data have been indicating that while input prices have increased, selling prices have not increased at the same rate i.e. businesses have been absorbing some of the price increases.  

4th Jun 2025

Key takeaway: The latest ISM Services report for the month of May in at 49.9 versus consensus expectations of 52.0. The headline print was also lower than the 51.6 recorded the previous month in April. The key point to note was that the headline figure was below 50. i.e. in contractionary territory. This was only the 4th month in the past 5 years when ISM Services has recorded a print below 50. The release also coincided with a weak ADP jobs print for the month of May. Treasury yields were sharply down in response. One of the most important points of the latest release was a sharp decrease in the New Orders Index from 52.3 to 46.4. Business Activity, Inventories and Backlog of Order, all fell from the previous month. In a continuation of the trend that we have seen over the past few month, the Prices Paid Index increased from 65.1 to 68.7. Concerns about inflation from tariffs has been centerstage for the past few months. In fact, PMI data have been indicating an upsurge in Input prices even before the tariff announcements. One key point to note though is that most PMI data have been indicating that while input prices have increased, selling prices have not increased at the same rate i.e. businesses have been absorbing some of the price increases.  

5th May 2025

Key takeaway: The latest ISM Services report for the month of April came in at 51.6 versus consensus expectations of 50.2. The headline print was also higher than the 50.8 recorded the previous month in March. This was the first full month of ISM PMI data post the April 4th tariff announcements. On the surface, there wasn’t much of a difference in Services PMI compared to the previous month. Business activity slowed a little from 55.9 to 53.7. New Orders improved from 50.4 to 52.3. The more notable items in the PMI report was the continuation of the Employment Index in contractionary territory at 49 as well as the continued increase in the Prices Index a 65.1. Concerns about inflation from tariffs has been centerstage for the past few months. In fact, PMI data have been indicating an upsurge in Input prices even before the tariff announcements. One key point to note though is that most PMI data have been indicating that while input prices have increased, selling prices have not increased at the same rate i.e. businesses have been absorbing some of the price increases.  

3rd Apr 2025

Key takeaway: The latest ISM Services report for the month of March came in at 50.8 versus consensus expectations of 53.0. The headline print was also lower than the 53.5 recorded the previous month in February. While the first week of the month is critical from the perspective of new economic data (NFP, ISM reports, construction spending), this week has been dominated by Tariff news. Markets are in a state of shock with the massive tariff announcements and treasury yields are sharply down. The weak ISM Services print just adds a bit to the fire. The individual components of the ISM Services Index were not very positive either. New Orders contracted from 52.2 to 50.4, though still in positive territory. The Prices Index fell from 62.6 to 60.9, though still remains very elevated above 50. And finally, the Employment index fell from 53.9 to 46.2, firmly in contractionary territory. This was probably the worst news in the ISM Services report. The AD print was relatively healthy yesterday and all eyes are on the NFP print tomorrow.   

5th Mar 2025

Key takeaway: Treasury yields have been notoriously volatile over the past few weeks. A few key economic data points have come out weaker which has resulted in the 10 year falling more than 50 basis points since the start of 2025. Over the past 1-2 years, we have generally seen better than expected prints on ISM Services whereas ISM manufacturing has generally been downbeat. That narrative had changed a bit during the last 2-3 months when manufacturing posted decent prints whereas services posted some declines. The Services sector is a much larger component of the US economy and hence large changes in PMI readings in this sector have an outsized impact on the market. The latest ISM Services PMI increased marginally from 52.8 in January to 53.5 in February. The increase was broad based across most sub indexes including New Orders, Employment, New Export Orders, Prices and Inventories. A stronger than expected Services PMI print acted as an offset to a weak ADP private jobs print today. Any prolonged weakness in Services PMI in the near future will further pressure yields down.      

5th Feb 2025

Key takeaway: The latest ISM Services PMI release for the month of January showed the headline Index decreased 1.2% from 54.0 to 52.8. ISM Services PMI has seen a couple of declining prints in the past few months. After a couple of contractionary prints ( i.e. below 50) during the middle of 2024, Services PMI had been on an upswing. However, November and January readings have been a tad weak. The Activity Index registered 54.5% in January, 3.5% lower than previous month. Similarly, New Orders Index was also lower by 3.1% to 51.3. The Employment Index registered 52.3%, 1% higher than the previous month. Finally, the Prices Index also registered a 4% decrease to 60.4 in January. The sharp falls in the headline, new orders and business activity index were enough to send treasury yields lower and prices higher. Nonetheless, the latest reading marked the 7th consecutive month of expansion. Also while the Prices Paid Index has fallen, it still remains at an elevated level at 60.4. The sector has generally been resilient across the past 2 years despite a monetary tightening by the Fed. Over the past 2 years, we had mostly seen a strong services sector and a weak manufacturing sector. However, the past few months have been indicating a resurgence in manufacturing activity.     

7th Jan 2025

Key takeaway: The latest ISM Services PMI release for the month of December showed the headline Index increased 2% from 52.1 to 54.1. After a couple of contractionary prints ( i.e. below 50) during the middle of 2024, Services PMI has been on an upswing. The latest reading marked the 10th time the index has been above 50 this year and also the 6th consecutive month of expansion. The sector has generally been resilient across the past 2 years despite a monetary tightening by the Fed. Business Activity registered 58.2 in December – a sharp increase of 4.5.  Likewise the key New Orders Index also increased from 53.7 to 54.2. However, the key highlight of the release was a sharp spike in Prices Index from 58.2 in November to 64.4 in December. This is the firm time the index has registered over 60 since January 2o24. Bond yields immediately spiked in response. Concerns over resurgent inflation were anyways taking root before this release. JOLTS data also came in hotter than expected on the same day. The US economy continues to be robust as evidenced by economic data. Rate cuts seem to be indefinitely on hold – for now !    

4th Dec 2024

Key takeaway: The latest ISM Services PMI release for the month of November showed the headline Index decreased sharply from 56.0 to 52.1. The Services sector is much larger than the Manufacturing component and hence any large downward moves in the PMI get a lot of market attention. 10 year yields were sharply down in immediate response. After a couple of contractionary prints ( i.e. below 50) during the middle of the year, the Services PMI has been on an upswing. The latest reading marked the 9th time the index has been above 50 this year and also the 5th consecutive month of expansion. The sector has generally been resilient across the past 2 years despite a monetary tightening by the Fed. Business Activity registered 53.7 in November, 3.5 points lower than the previous month. Likewise the key New Orders Index also fell from 57.4 to 53.7. The Employment and Prices Index did not show a very large change. In summary, the overall report was bearish compared to recent months and the market took ample notice of the details. The tepid data also gives further ammunition to the Fed to cut another 25bps in December.    

5th Nov 2024

Key takeaway: The latest ISM Services PMI release for the month of October showed the headline Index increased strongly from 54.9% to 56.0%. After a couple of contractionary prints ( i.e. below 50) during the middle of the year, the Services PMI has been on an upswing. The latest reading marked the 8th time the index has been above 50 this year and also the 4th month in a row of PMI increase. Also before April, when the Index first moved below 50 this year, the Index had been in expansion territory for 16 straight months. The sector has generally been resilient across the past 2 years despite a monetary tightening by the Fed. However, the latest report – even though the headline showed an increase – was a mixed bag. The headline index was up mostly on account of the employment and supplier delivery indexes. The Business Activity Index decreased from 59.9 in September to 57.2 in October. Similarly, the new orders index also grew declined from 59.4 to 57.4. On the balance, this was a mixed report. 10 year yields have generally been higher the past few weeks post the Fed rate hike. The ISM Services release mostly kept the pressure up on yields.   

3rd Oct 2024

Key takeaway: Unlike, manufacturing which has been in contractionary territory for most of this year, Services has continued to be resilient. The latest ISM Services PMI release for the month of September showed the headline Index increased strongly from 51.5% to 54.9%. After a couple of contractionary prints ( i.e. below 50) during the middle of the year, the latest strong print is worth noting. The latest reading marked the 7th time the index has been above 50 this year and also the 3rd month in a row of PMI increase. Also before April, when the Index first moved below 50 this year, the Index had been in expansion territory for 16 straight months. The sector has generally been resilient across the past 2 years despite a monetary tightening by the Fed. The Business Activity Index registered 59.9 in September – a sharp increase of 6.6% over the 53.3 recorded in August. The new orders index also grew sharply from 53.0 to 59.4. The Prices Index also recorded a rise of 2.1% to 59.4. The only negative in the report was a contractionary read in the Employment Index at 48.1. On the balance, this was a very favourable report. 10 year yields have generally been higher the past couple of weeks post the Fed rate hike. Rising oil prices will also raise the fear of stoking inflation.   

5th Sep 2024

Key takeaway: The August Services PMI was mostly unchanged from July. Unlike, manufacturing which has been in contractionary territory for most of this year, Services continues to be resilient. The latest ISM Services PMI release for the month of August showed the headline Index increased marginally from 51.4% to 51.5% i.e. still in expansion territory. The latest reading marked the sixth time the index has been above 50 this year. Before April, when the Index first moved below 50 this year, the Index had been in expansion territory for 16 straight months. The new orders index also grew marginally.  

8th Aug 2024

Key takeaway: The July Services PMI is a mirror image of the July Manufacturing PMI report that we saw a couple of days ago. The latest ISM Services PMI release for the month of July showed the headline Index increased from 48.8% to 51.4% i.e. once again in expansion territory. The latest reading marked the fifth time the index has been above 50 this year. Before April, when the Index first moved below 50 this year, the Index had been in expansion territory for 15 straight months. The other indexes of business activity, employment and new orders grew substantially as well. The only Index which moved lower was Supplier Deliveries which indicated a faster pace of deliveries. The positive Services PMI came as a relief on a day when equity markets were getting battered in price action on the back of negative news in recent days and the big unwind of the JPY carry trade. 

3rd Jul 2024

Key takeaway: The latest ISM Services PMI release for the month of June was a bit of a shocker. We recollect that the previous month’s ISM Services PMI was a bit of a shocker as well – but on the upside. In May, the Services PMI had steeply increased from 49.4 to 53.8. We saw a similar sharp reversal in June with the headline PMI falling from 53.8 to 48.8. Similar to the previous month, the main contributor was the Business Activity sub-index which fell a whopping 11 points from 61.2 to 49.6. Most other sub-indexes fell sharply as well including New Orders, New Export Orders, Employment and Inventories. On the whole, this was a dampening report and yields moved sharply lower by about 10 basis points in immediate reaction. 

5th Jun 2024

Key takeaway: In general, the story over the past 12-18 months has been – softness in manufacturing and robust activity in Services. Over the past 3-6 months though we have started to witness a trend reversal in both sectors. Manufacturing seems to have bottomed out and is now on an upswing. On the other hand, the Services sector – even though still in expansionary territory – has started to soften a bit. The latest PMI data for both the sectors sprung a surprise though. Manufacturing came out softer again and Services posted decent gains once again. The latest headline ISM Services PMI for April increased substantially from 49.4 in April to 53.8 in May. The increase was substantially driven by a surge in the Business Activity Index from 50.9 to 61.2. The New Orders Index also increase from 52.2 to 54.1. ISM Services PMI had recorded a headline index number below 50 (in contractionary territory) in the previous month of April. This had been the first contractionary reading since December 2022. The bounce back in May was hence noteworthy. Given the importance of this economic indicator, we saw yields move up immediately in response. Lastly, the Employment Index also registered an increase from 45.9 to 47.1. Although, it is key to note that the index level still remains below 50 indicating contraction.

3rd May 2024

Key takeaway: Data on the all important Services sector of the US economy is steadily getting more interesting. In general, the story over the past 12-18 months has been a softness in manufacturing and robustness in Services. Over the past 3-6 months though we have started to witness a trend reversal in both sectors. Manufacturing seems to have bottomed out and is now on an upswing. On the other hand, the Services sector – even though still in expansionary territory – has started to soften a bit. The latest headline ISM Services PMI for April declined from 51.4 in March to 49.4 in April. Even though the headline drop is not substantial, it is below the crucial 50 mark and for the first time since December 2022, in contractionary territory. It is worth nothing that, this number is also quite some distance away from the 69.1 seen in end 2021. The decrease in the rate of growth in April and the decline in the headline composite index was primarily driven by a sharp contraction in Business Activity / Production, lower new orders and a fall in the employment index. Each of the 3 components are critical factors and hence this report was construed as significantly bearish by market participants. The report also came on a day when the NFP jobs data has been underwhelming as well. Lastly, the Prices Index also registered an increase from 53.4 to 59.2 – a negative development from a Services inflation perspective. 

3rd Apr 2024

Key takeaway: Data on the all important Services sector of the US economy is steadily getting more interesting. In general, the story over the past 12-18 months has been a softness in manufacturing and robustness in Services. Over the past 3-6 months though we have started to witness a trend reversal in both sectors. Manufacturing seems to have bottomed out and is now on an upswing. On the other hand, the Services sector – even though still in expansionary territory – has started to soften a bit. The latest headline ISM Services PMI for March declined from 52.6 in February to 51.4 in March. This is now quite some distance away from the 69.1 seen in end 2021. Nonetheless, at above 50.0, is is the 15th consecutive month of expansion in the Services sector. The last reading below 50.0 was in December 2022. The decrease in the rate of growth in March and the decline in the headline composite index was primarily driven by slower new orders (56.1 to 54.4), faster supplier deliveries (48.9 to 45.4) and a contraction in employment (48.5 in March). The employment index has contracted for the 3rd time in 4 months. This is somewhat contradictory to the strong jobs data seen in other indicators. The Prices Index also registered a decrease from 58.6 to 53.4 – a positive development from a Services inflation perspective. 

5th Mar 2024

Key takeaway: Economic activity in the Services sector expanded in February for the 14th consecutive month. However, this was a mixed report due to a number of factors. Firstly, headline PMI registered a drop from 53.4 in January to 52.6 in February. The Business Activity Index, on the other hand, registered a small increase from 55.8 in January to 57.2 in February. The drop in the headline PMI Index was mostly on account of supplier deliveries (which got faster compared to the previous month) and Employment which registered a 2.5% decline from 50.5 to 48.0. The all important new orders index rose from 55.0 to 56.1. The drop in the Prices Index from 64.0 to 58.6 was also favourable from an inflation perspective. On the balance, even though headline PMI fell, this wasn’t a bad Services report at all. However, markets chose to focus on the headline and yields were down in response. 

5th Feb 2024

Key takeaway: Economic activity in the Services sector expanded in January for the 13th consecutive month. Headline PMI registered 53.4, up 2.9% from 50.5 in December. The Business Activity Index registered 55.8 – unchanged from January. The New Orders Index was also up by 2.2% at 55.0. Inventories were down slightly from 49.6 to 49.1. The supplier delivery index increased 2.9% to 52.4 indicating slightly slower deliveries. The Employment Index increased sharply from 43.8 to 50.5. The spate of positive economic data continued with this ISM Services report which indicated strong activity and prospects in the Services sector. Just to recap, the December ISM report had been quite soft with a substantial fall in New Orders and Employment sub indexes. However, most sub-indexes are back on track in January. The bottomline is that there has been continued resilience in the Services sector. With manufacturing PMIs having bottomed out in recent months, it it is tough to infer recessionary conditions from overall PMIs. Markets also validated this view with the bond yield moving up today. 

5th Jan 2024

Key takeaway: Economic activity in the Services sector expanded in December for the 12th consecutive month. Headline PMI registered 50.6, down 2.1% from 52.1 in November. The Business Activity Index registered 56.6 – up 1.5% from 55.1 in October. The New Orders Index was down by 2.7% at 52.8. Inventories was down sharply from 54.4 to 49.6. The supplier delivery index decreased 0.1% to 49.5 indicating slightly faster deliveries. The Employment Index fell sharply from 50.7 to 43.3. While the overall index and most sub indexes were in expansionary territory, the overall report had a bearish tone. The substantial fall in New Orders and Employment sub indexes were particularly key to note. However, it might be presumptive to read too much into this one report – also given year end effects. The bottomline is that there has been continued resilience in the Services sector. With manufacturing PMIs having bottomed out in recent months, it it is tough to infer recessionary conditions from overall PMIs. Markets also validated this view with the bond yield move today. Bond yields had spiked with the upside surprise in NFP. The bearish Services PMI sent yields crashing again only to trace back the drop through the rest of the market hours.  

5th Dec 2023

Key takeaway: Economic activity in the Services sector expanded in November for the 11th consecutive month. Headline PMI registered 52.7, up 0.9% from 51.8 in October. The Business Activity Index registered 55.1 – up 1% from 54.1 in October. The New Orders Index was unchanged at 55.1. Inventories was up sharply from 49.5 to 54.4. The supplier delivery index increased 2.1% to 49.6 indicating slower deliveries. Even the Employment Index expanded from 50.2 to 50.7. All of these indexes generally point to continued resilience in the Services sector. With manufacturing PMIs having bottomed out in recent months, it it is tough to infer recessionary conditions from overall PMIs. Yet, markets mostly ignored the resilient Services PMI print and sent yields lower down on the back of a softer than expected JOLTS print that came at the same time.  

3rd Nov 2023

Key takeaway: Economic activity in the Services sector expanded in October for the 10th consecutive month. The headline PMI registered 51.8, dropping almost 2 points from 53.6 in September. The sizeable drop made this report a mixed bag for investors. The New Orders Index had recorded a sharp drop from 57.5 to 51.8 in September. It retraced some of the move back with a rise to 55.5. However, most other sub-indexes recorded a negative print. Business activity fell from 58.8 to 54.1, Inventories fell from 54.2 to 49.5. The Inventory Index has seen the sharpest drop in the past 2 months. The Employment Index also fell indicating a slowdown in hiring (although still above 50). Lastly, the supplier delivery index fell further to 47.5 from 50.4 indicating faster deliveries. By now with the improvement in supply chains, faster deliveries can be attributed to a demand slowdown rather than an improvement in supply chains. However, the bottom line remains that, barring a print below 50 in December 2022, the US Services sector has been in expansion (above 50 PMI) for 39 of the past 40 months. In summary, the resilience in the Services sector continues. and the latest ISM print might be slightly weaker, it is still not one that indicates an upcoming recession 

4th Oct 2023

Key takeaway: Economic activity in the Services sector expanded in September for the 9th consecutive month. The headline PMI registered 53.6, a slight drop from previous month’s 54.5. Barring a print below 50 in December 2022, the US Services sector has been in expansion (above 50 PMI) for 39 of the past 40 months. In summary, the resilience in the Services sector continues. While most of the component sub-indexes of the PMI were relatively unchanged or higher for the month, the key point to note was a sharp drop in the New Orders Index from 57.5 to 51.8 (still in expansion territory though). Similarly, Inventories sub- index also fell from 57.7 in August to 54.2 in September. A large portion of the drop in the headline PMI was driven by these 2 sub-indexes. Overall though, this was a fairly robust print and still not one that indicates an upcoming recession 

6th Sep 2023

Key takeaway: For the umpteenth time in the past 12-18 months, ISM Services PMI has once again shown resilience. If you are searching for a recession, pls continue to look elsewhere. The ISM Services PMI increased from 52.7 in July to 54.5 in August. Economic activity in the US in the Services sector expanded for the 8th consecutive month. The sector has grown in 38 of the last 39 months, with the lone contraction in December 2022. The Business Activity Index increased marginally from 57.1% in July to 57.3%. The key New Orders Index expanded a robust 2.5% from 55% in July to 57.5% in August. The Employment sub-index which had registered a fall from 53.1 in June to 50.7 in July, was back up again to 54.7 in August. In summary, services activity continues to be in expansion territory and the PMI numbers looked quite good. In immediate response to the release, the 2 year treasury yield moved sharply higher. The pressure on the Fed remains with a still hot economy! 

3rd Aug 2023

Key takeaway: ISM Services PMI dropped marginally from 53.9 in June to 52.7 in July. Even though the headline PMI dropped, it was still in expansionary territory. US Services PMI has now expanded for 37 of the last 38 months. There wasn’t a substantial change in any of the sub-indexes either. The Business Activity Index, even though 2.1% lower than June, was still healthy at 57.1%. The New Orders Index also did not change much and recorded 55.0%. The Employment sub-index registered a fall from 53.1 in June to 50.7 in July. However, that was on the back of a sharp jump the previous month. In summary, services activity continues to be in expansion territory, but unmistakably slower than the 2022 highs.  

6th Jul 2023

Key takeaway: ISM Services PMI had registered a drop the month before in May to a level just above 50. The question then was whether it was start of a trend of lower in Services PMI, eventually falling into contractionary territory. However, June Services PMI increased once again from 50.3 to 53.9. The Business Activity sub-index registered a large increase from 51.5 to 59.2. Similarly, the New Orders sub-index also registered a large increase from 52.9 to 55.5. And in yet another indication of a strong services sector, the Employment sub-index also registered a sharp jump to 53.1 from a contractionary 49.2 in the month before. Lastly, even New Export Orders Index (which had been relatively soft in the recent past) recorded another strong month growing to 61.5 after 59.0 in May and 60.9 in April. And almost Goldilocks report!  

5th Jun 2023

Key takeaway: It might be worthwhile to take a step back and rethink the recent Services PMI history. Since the highs of 2021 and early 2022, PMIs for both, manufacturing and services, have fallen substantially. While Manufacturing PMI continued to drift down and firmly into contractionary territory, Services PMI perceivably drew a bottom towards the end of 2022 and have been relatively high for most of 2023. It has been the engine that has held the US economy afloat, together with a resilient final consumer. Apart from a single data point in December 2022, Services PMI has remained in expansionary territory (above 50) all throughout. However, the ISM Services PMI for May recorded a barely expansionary 50.3! The question is – Is this the start of another leg down?? The all important New Orders Index expanded in May again for the 5th time in succession. However the figure of 52.9 is 3.2% lower than last month’s 56.1. On a positive front, supplier deliveries as well as prices came down from the previous month. The last key point to note was that the New Export Orders Index recorded another strong month after April (59.0 in May compared to 60.9 in April). New Export Orders index had generally been weak even in the face of a resilient domestic sector.  

3rd May 2023

Key takeaway: Where is the recession? If you are looking for one, dont look here! The past 4-5 months of PMI data have indicated strongly that the US manufacturing sector is in contractionary territory. But it is hard to state the same about the US services sector. In fact most of the past 6 months data still suggests an expanding services sector – albeit at a slower pace. The Services sector activity expanded once again in April with headline PMI rising from 51.2 to 51.9. While Services PMIs are undoubtedly lower from the highs of late 2021 and early 2022, it is key to understand that they are still in expansion territory and taking much longer to come down as an effect of the rate hikes than market participants had expected. New Orders expanded in April for the 4th consecutive month – from 52.2 to 56.1. The Prices Index was almost flat compared to previous month at 59.6. However, this number is still quite elevated and hence points to more inflation pressures down the road. The Employment Index, although marginally lower than March, was still in expansion territory at 50.8. The last point to note in this latest ISM release is a whopping 17 points jump in the New Export Orders Index – from 43.7 to 60.9. Most PMIs have been showing a relatively weaker export order index. Hence this one month jump is worth taking note of.  

5th Apr 2023

Key takeaway: The past 4-5 months of PMI data have indicated strongly that the US manufacturing sector is in contractionary territory. But it is hard to state the same about the US services sector. In fact most of the past 6 months data still suggests an expanding services sector – albeit at a slower pace. The first two months of the year had thrown unexpectedly high ISM Services PMI prints. This had resulted in a general move up in treasury yields as the market repriced its view of terminal Fed Funds rate. That was until the banking crisis happened. Many market participants had opined that the January number was likely to be an exception due to seasonal factors. The February number was also just as strong. The latest March Services PMI data indicates a slowdown in the growth of services activity in the US. Most importantly, the new orders index, which had registered a huge growth in the start of the year, moderated by 10.4 percentage points from 62.6% in Feb to 52.2% in Mar. Supplier delivery performance continued to improve. And while Prices Paid sub-index was lower than Feb, it was still substantially high at 59.5 indicating constant upward pressure on prices.  

3rd Mar 2023

Key takeaway: The unexpectedly high January ISM Services print on 3rd Feb 2023 had started the huge move up in treasury yields as the market repriced its view of terminal Fed Funds rate. Many market participants had opined that the January number was likely to be an exception due to seasonal factors. Guess what? The February number is out and it is just as strong. If we exclude the contractionary print of Dec 2022, ISM Services PMI has been in expansionary territory for the past 33 months! The New Orders sub-index further expanded in Feb to 62.6 from 60.4 in Jan. Just to recap – this keenly watched New Orders Index had increased a whopping 15.2 points to 60.4 in January! Supplier delivery performance continued to improve. And while Prices Paid sub-index was lower than Jan, it was still substantially high at 65.6 indicating constant upward pressure on prices.  

3rd Feb 2023

Key takeaway: It is a must to look at the graph in the link below to understand the sharp contrast between the Dec Services PMI and the Jan Services PMI – and to understand why do the wise say “one data point doesn’t make a trend”! January Services PMI recorded a sharp jump back up in expansion territory (55.2 from 49.2 in Dec). To put things in context, barring the low December reading, the Services sector PMI has been above 50 for 31 consecutive months! The Business Activity Index increased 6.9 points from 53.5 in December to 60.4 in January. Most importantly, the keenly watched New Orders Index, increased a whopping 15.2 points to 60.4! The data release flied in the face of economic bears. Even prompting questions from observers whether Powell would have conducted the day earlier FOMC conference any differently if he had seen the PMI data before! The other point to note in this release was that while the Prices Index was marginally down from previous month, it still remains in a high territory.  

6th Jan 2023

Key takeaway: Before analyzing the latest Services PMI its is worth remembering 2 things once again. First – Services is the largest part of the US economy. And second – it has been the ISM Services PMI which has been in stark contrast to other economic indicators over the past 6 months when its readings had been notably positive and expansionary. For the first time in the latest economic downturn, headline ISM Services PMI has printed a below 50 number. Once again, a single print does not suggest we are squarely in a deep recession. Especially because last month’s print had been unexpectedly higher in contrast. But the trend is continuing downward. Similar to Manufacturing PMI, New Orders contracted significantly – dropping from 56 to 45.2! Other sub indexes fell substantially as well indicating a broader downturn. On the other hand, there is still much room for improvement of data in both Prices and Employment indexes to have a positive impact on inflation reduction. 

5th Dec 2022

Key takeaway: Once again, I cannot emphasize enough the importance of the ISM Services PMI number as one of the most important indicators of the health of the US economy. While this all important indicator has been on a softening downtrend since the start of this year, it has held up surprisingly well. Last month the Services PMI had recorded a sharp fall from 56.7 in Sep to 54.4. However, the November Services PMI picked steam back up again to 56.5 beating expectations of 53.3. The Business activity sub-index increased a whopping 9 percentage points from 55.7 to 64.7. The new orders sub index fell from 56.5 to 56.0 – but still in substantial expansion territory. Other sub-indexes of employment, prices, backlogs, etc all suggested decent expansion and growth – which remains concerning from the Fed’s perspective!

3rd Nov 2022

Key takeaway: The ISM Services PMI number is one of the most important indicators of the health of the US economy. For a good 6 months now, the Services PMI has held up exceedingly well leading many to believe in the outcome of a soft landing – a scenario where inflation cools faster than the growth in the economy. That narrative is starting to fade significantly. The ISM Services PMI (at 54.4) recorded the lowest reading since May 2020. Business activity and New orders – both fell substantially from prior month. On the flip side, the weakening of the PMI is not large enough to make the Fed drop gear. To make matters worse in October, supplier deliveries slowed further, inventories fell and prices increased – none of which augur well for the inflation picture

5th Oct 2022

Key takeaway: If I were to choose one economic indicator which still makes me believe a bit in the soft landing scenario, it is still the ISM Services number. Economic activity continues at a decent pace still in the US Services sector. The latest Manufacturing PMI rolled over a bit, but Services continues to grow strong! Economic activity expanded for the 28th month in a row. Most of the sub-indexes, including new orders, were lower than August, but they are still well into expansion territory (above 50). At the same time, price pressures continue to abate in these indexes which will eventually find their way into CPI. Inventories are still low since demand continues to outstrip supply. Unfortunately though, for all the good news, it only makes the Fed more jittery and probably skews their decision making to the tighter end.  

6th Sep 2022

Key takeaway: The dichotomy with the ISM Services PMI and almost every other data point continues in August as well. Just like last month, this was a robust number. Economic activity in the Services sector grew in August for the 27th month in a row registering a solid 56.9%. New orders index increased further to 61.8%. Employment grew, supplier deliveries eased a bit and prices continued to fall. The last ISM Services release had added to existing tailwinds in the equity markets strengthening the belief of a softish landing. This reading further reinforces that belief.  Ironically, this month’s ISM Services release coincided with the updated PMI release by S&P Global, which continues to show significant divergence from the ISM PMI. In fact, the S&P Global Services PMI showed a sharp slowdown in August, especially in new orders! 

3rd Aug 2022

Key takeaway: ISM Services PMI came in better than expected. There were anyways some positive vibes in the equity markets on the back of a perceived dovish Fed July meeting and a better-than-expected ISM number contributed some more! Remember – Services is a larger portion of the US economy. In general, US GDP numbers track Services PMI quite well. The major point in this release was the new orders index increased substantially. Supply chain contraints eased seen from the easing of the supplier deliveries index and input prices further came off as well. Now, there are some variances from the S&P Global PMI. But it is not uncommon to have some differing data between the two PMI sources. 

6th Jul 2022

Key takeaway: A bit of good news! While Manufacturing PMI (both ISM and S&P Global) have been relatively downbeat in recent months (especially contracting new orders), the ISM Services PMI held up quite well. Firstly, the index at 55.3 outperformed consensus estimate of 54.3. Secondly, remember that a reading above 50 is still expansionary. Also, New Orders index was a good 55.6 – lower than May, but still expansionary. Now why is all this good news? JI probably would not have been standalone. But there was a sequence of relatively good news in the past week. Factory orders were up 1.6% in May (compared to +0.6% in April). The revision to new orders for manufactured durable goods also improved from 0.7% to 0.8% for May. And finally, oil has substantially fallen. 

The ISM Services PMI indicates the overall economic condition for the non-manufacturing sector. The index is based on the diffusion indexes for four indicators with equal weights: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Supplier Deliveries. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates contraction.

ISM Services PMI