US Macro Updates

The One Stop Portal for US Macroeconomic Data. Simplified and Summarized! 

We simplify and summarize key data so that you don’t have to spend hours reading confusing and long media releases. Read key economic releases and major events here in under 2 minutes. And we will explain the key takeaway for you. Stay informed and form a robust view on macroeconomic matters to aid your successful investment decisions

24th Jul 2026

S&P Global US PMI

Key takeaway: The S&P Global Flash US PMI for July 2026, released on July 24, showed business activity accelerating to an eight-month high even as price pressures intensified sharply. The Composite Output Index jumped 1.7 points to 53.6 — well above the 52.2 consensus forecast and June’s 51.9 — marking the fastest expansion since last November. The move was driven entirely by services: the Services Business Activity Index surged 2.4 points to 53.6, also an eight-month high and a clear beat versus the 51.5 estimate, lifted by FIFA World Cup and July 4th-related spending. Manufacturing told the opposite story, edging down 0.1 points to 53.8 — a four-month low and a miss against the 54.4 estimate — as production, new orders, and inventories all cooled, with employment the only sub-component to improve. Underneath the headline, however, the picture darkened on prices: input cost inflation hit a 14-month high and selling-price inflation reached its steepest pace since August 2022, with both pressures concentrated in services even as manufacturing costs stayed elevated. S&P Global Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson noted the data are broadly consistent with annualized GDP growth of 2.0%, up from the 1.2% pace signaled in the second quarter, while flagging that intensifying supply chain delays and renewed price pressures could constrain growth ahead. The combination of resurgent growth and accelerating inflation complicates the case for near-term Fed easing, with the durability of July’s strength — much of it tied to one-off spending events — the key question heading into August’s final print.

23rd Jun 2026

Key takeaway: The S&P Global Flash US PMI for June 2026, released on June 23, beat expectations across the board and extended what is now a third consecutive month of improvement from March’s two-and-a-half-year low. The headline Composite Output Index rose 0.7 points to a five-month high of 52.2, with Manufacturing surging 0.6 points to 55.7 — a 49-month high and the strongest reading since May 2022 — while Services also improved 0.6 points to 51.3, a four-month high, though described as signalling only a modest increase in output and new orders. Manufacturing output was the standout, jumping 1.1 points to 57.7 — a 59-month high and the fastest pace since July 2021 — with new orders in manufacturing rising at their quickest since April 2022, though the demand was again entirely domestic in character, as exports of both goods and services continued to decline. The employment picture was the sharpest concern in the release: overall employment fell for the second straight month and third time in four months, with manufacturing job cuts — paradoxically, given the surge in output — the worst since the COVID lockdowns, pointing to firms expanding production through automation and efficiency gains rather than headcount. On prices, the release flagged that input cost inflation remains elevated and is now being compounded by renewed Strait of Hormuz uncertainty following Iran’s announcement of a potential reclosure, with the backdrop of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s sharp reduction in forward guidance adding a further layer of complexity — the Fed’s dot plot now signals a rate hike before year-end, a significant pivot from the prior projection of a cut, which means any further acceleration in PMI price indices will carry heightened policy implications.

21st May 2026
Key takeaway: The S&P Global Flash US PMI for May 2026, released on May 21, painted a picture of an economy under intensifying stress — steady on the surface but increasingly fragile beneath it. The headline Composite Output Index held unchanged at 51.7, masking a widening divergence between a resurgent manufacturing sector and a sluggish services economy. The Manufacturing PMI rose to a 48-month high of 55.3 — its strongest reading since May 2022 — while the Manufacturing Output Index hit a 49-month high of 56.2, though factory activity was again partly flattered by precautionary inventory building and order growth was purely domestically driven, with goods exports falling. Services, by contrast, slipped to a two-month low of 50.9 and is on course for its weakest calendar quarter since late 2023, with service exports falling at their sharpest rate in six years. Overall employment fell for the second time in three months, with service sector job losses at their second-fastest pace since May 2020, even as manufacturing payrolls rose at the largest rate in eleven months. The price picture was the most alarming aspect of the release: input cost inflation surged to its highest since November 2022, driven by war-related shipping disruptions, supply chain lengthening and steep energy price increases, with selling price inflation reaching its highest since August 2022 as firms passed costs through. Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson noted that the survey points to annualised Q2 GDP growth of barely above 1%, and flagged that even this subdued pace may not be sustained — with three-month order book growth at a two-year low and the inventory build that has supported manufacturing inherently temporary, the risk is that cooling demand and surging prices combine to produce a stagflationary squeeze in the months ahead.

23rd Apr 2026
Key takeaway: The S&P Global flash US PMI for April 2026, released April 23, delivered a better-than-expected broad-based rebound that offered some reassurance after March’s near-stagnation. The Composite PMI rose to a three-month high of 52.0, up from 50.3 in March — which had been the weakest reading since August 2023 — beating the consensus estimate of 50.6 and marking the 39th consecutive month of expansion. Both components surprised to the upside: the Manufacturing PMI climbed to 54.0 — its highest since May 2022 — with manufacturing output surging to a 48-month high of 55.7, while the Services PMI returned to expansion at 51.3 after dipping to 49.8 in March. However, S&P Global chief business economist Chris Williamson struck a cautionary note, observing that the April PMI is broadly consistent with the economy struggling to manage annualised growth in excess of 1%, with the vast services sector acting as the principal drag as orders for travel, tourism, and financial products barely rose amid war-related hesitancy. Part of the manufacturing surge also reflected stockpiling rather than genuine end-demand, with input cost inflation accelerating and supply chain delays deteriorating at the sharpest pace since mid-2022. Employment remained a concern, with headcounts near-flat for a second consecutive month — the worst back-to-back employment readings since late 2024 — as companies cited the need to reduce staffing costs in the face of uncertain demand and high input prices.   

24th Mar 2026

Key takeaway: The latest March 2026 flash S&P Global US PMI points to a moderation in growth alongside a sharp pickup in inflation pressures, with the composite output index easing to 51.4 (from 51.9 in February), an 11-month low but still in expansion territory. The slowdown was services-led (≈51.1), while manufacturing improved (≈52.4), continuing the recent divergence between the two sectors. More notably, the report highlighted a re-acceleration in price pressures, with input costs rising at the fastest pace in around 10 months and firms passing these through via higher selling prices. Demand conditions softened, with weaker new business growth and employment slipping into contraction (sub-50) for the first time in over a year, suggesting rising caution among firms. Overall, the survey signals that while the US economy remains resilient, it is losing momentum amid rising cost pressures—particularly energy-driven—creating a more stagflationary mix at the margin.   

20th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: The latest flash PMI data for February showed business activity continued to expand building on the recent trend of the past few months. The Composite Output Index decreased slightly from 53.0 in January to 52.3 in February. Yet, it continues to remains above 50.0 in expansionary zone. Output in manufacturing and Services Business Activity Index, both expanded, but at a slower rate compared to the previous month. More importantly, input costs have been on the rise for manufacturers and services providers since the start of 2025. The latest report showed a continuation of that trend. However, manufacturers and services providers have generally resisted from passing on large price increases to final consumers. However, the last few PMI reports have suggested a rise in selling prices for both goods and services. The report also suggested employment rose only marginally continuing a recent trend of a near-stalled job market.     

23rd Jan 2026

Key takeaway: The latest flash PMI data for January showed business activity continued to expand building on the recent trend of the past few months. The Composite Output Index increased slightly from 52.7 in December to 52.8 in January. It continues to remains above 50.0 in expansionary zone. Output in manufacturing and Services Business Activity Index, both expanded, mostly at the same rate as the previous month. Input costs have been on the rise for manufacturers and services providers since the start of 2025. However, they have generally resisted from passing on large price increases to final consumers. However, the last few PMI reports have suggested a rise in selling prices for both goods and services. The report also suggested employment rose only marginally continuing a recent trend of a near-stalled job market.     

18th Dec 2025

Key takeaway: The latest flash PMI data for December showed business activity continued to expand building on the recent trend of the past few months. The Composite Output Index decreased slightly from 54.2 in November to 53.0 in December, but remains above 50.0 in expansionary zone. Output in manufacturing and Services Business Activity Index, both expanded, but at slower rates compared to recent months. New order flows also slowed down. However, the most notable point in the December flash was intensifying selling price pressures. Input costs have been on the rise for manufacturers and services providers since the start of 2025. However, they have generally resisted from passing on large price increases to final consumers. However, the latest December flash report showed higher selling prices with the overall rate of inflation rising to the highest since July this year.     

22nd Nov 2025

Key takeaway: The latest flash PMI data for November showed business activity continued to expand building on the recent trend of the past few months. The Composite Output Index increased from 54.6 in October to 54.8 in November. Growth was once again seen across manufacturing and services with the largest rise in new business orders since the start of 2025. Services Business Activity Index improved from 54.8 to 55.0 indicating that the services sector continues to remain robust as it has been for the past few years. Manufacturing PMI declined marginally from 52.5 to 51.9, but remains in expansionary territory. Manufacturing output also improved and remained above the 50 mark. The sector remains soft though with the PMI straddling the 50 mark between expansion and contraction in most of recent months. Overall, Employment growth in the economy also picked up though the pace of job creation remained modest. Input prices accelerated sharply in November, hitting the fastest rate in 3 years. Tariffs were the dominant reason cited by companies for the input price increases. However, prices charged for goods and services rose, but at a slower pace, indicating growing margin pressures for businesses.     

24th Oct 2025

Key takeaway: The latest flash PMI data for October showed business activity continued to expand building on the recent trend of the past few months. The Composite Output Index increased from 53.9 in September to 54.8 in October. Growth was once again seen across manufacturing and services with the largest rise in new business orders since the start of 2025. Services Business Activity Index improved from 54.2 to 55.2 indicating that the services sector continues to remain robust as it has been for the past few years. Manufacturing PMI improved marginally from 52.0 to 52.2, but remains in expansionary territory. Manufacturing output also improved and remained above the 50 mark. The sector remains soft though with the PMI straddling the 50 mark between expansion and contraction in most of recent months. Overall, Employment growth in the economy also picked up though the pace of job creation remained modest. Prices charged for goods and services rose at the slowest pace since April, but cost to firms continued to increase sharply. This continues to indicate growing margin pressures for businesses.     

23rd Sep 2025

Key takeaway: The latest flash PMI data for September showed business activity continued to expand building on the recent trend of the past few months. The Composite Output Index decreased marginally from 54.6 in August to 53.6 in September. While this was a slowdown in business activity for the 2nd month in a row, a number above 50 still indicates expansion. Growth was once again seen across manufacturing and services. The ongoing expansion reflected a further rise in new orders. The pace of new orders slowed in the Services sector. On the other hand, the pace of new order growth increased, albeit marginally, in the manufacturing sector. New orders in manufacturing rose for a 9th straight month. Manufacturing PMI declined from 53.0 to 52.0, but remains in expansionary territory. Manufacturing output also decreased from 55.2 to 51.1, but once again above the 50 mark. The sector remains soft though with the PMI straddling the 50 mark between expansion and contraction in most of recent months. One of the most notable points in recent PMI releases has been the sharp uptick in prices. That trend continued in September as well with average prices charged for goods and services rising at a rate not seen since mid 2022 when inflation was at its peak. Higher charges were attributed to rising costs, linked widely in turn to tariffs, rising import costs and increased labour costs. Price pressures intensified across both manufacturing and services. At the same time, selling price growth has been relatively modest indicating growing margin pressures for businesses.     

21st Aug 2025

Key takeaway: The latest flash PMI data for August showed business activity continued to expand building on the recent trend of the past few months. The Composite Output Index increased a marginally from 55.1 in July to 55.4 in August. The Composite PMI was at the highest this year, adding to signs of a strong third quarter. Growth was seen across manufacturing and services. The ongoing expansion reflected a further rise in new orders which have now risen continuously for 16 months. Also, the recent improvement seen in Manufacturing had seen a reversal in the previous month of July. However, Manufacturing PMI once again picked up rising above the 50 level into expansionary territory. Manufacturing output also increased from 51.3 to 55.2. The sector remains soft though with the PMI straddling the 50 mark between expansion and contraction in most of recent months. One of the most notable points in recent PMI releases has been the sharp uptick in prices. That trend continued in August as well with average prices charged for goods and services rising at a rate not seen since mid 2022 when inflation was at its peak. Higher charges were attributed to rising costs, linked widely in turn to tariffs, rising import costs and increased labour costs. Price pressures intensified across both manufacturing and services.    

24th Jul 2025

Key takeaway: The latest flash PMI data for July showed business activity continued to expand building on the recent trend of the past couple of months. The Composite Output Index increased a fair bit from 52.9 in June to 54.6 in July. The sharp expansion points to a robust start to the 3rd quarter. The ongoing expansion reflected a further rise in new orders which have now risen continuously for 15 months. Most of the growth, similar to previous months, was driven by domestic demand with export orders continuing to remain weak. On the other hand, the recent improvement seen in Manufacturing reversed in the month of July with the headline Manufacturing PMI once again dipping below 50, into contractionary territory. Manufacturing output also declined from 53.1 to 51.2. The sector remains soft though with the PMI straddling the 50 mark between expansion and contraction. One of the most notable points in recent PMI releases has been the sharp uptick in prices. That trend continued in July as well with average prices charged for goods and services rising at a rate not seen since mid 2022 when inflation was at its peak. Higher charges were attributed to rising costs, linked widely in turn to tariffs, rising import costs and increased labour costs. Price pressures intensified across both manufacturing and services.    

23rd Jun 2025

Key takeaway: The latest flash PMI data for June showed business activity continued to expand building on the recent trend of the past couple of months. The Composite Output Index decreased slightly from 53.0 in May to 52.8 in June. However, the May figure of 53.0 was itself revised upwards from the flash estimate. The ongoing expansion reflected a further rise in new orders which have now risen continuously for 14 months. Most of the growth was driven by domestic demand with export orders continuing to remain weak. The recent improvement in Manufacturing continued as well with Manufacturing PMI remained above 50 for the 6th consecutive month. The sector remains soft though with the PMI straddling the 50 mark between expansion and contraction. One of the most notable points in recent PMI releases has been the sharp uptick in prices. That trend continued in June as well with average prices charged for goods and services rising at a rate not seen since mid 2022 when inflation was at its peak. Higher charges were attributed to rising costs, linked widely in turn to tariffs, rising import costs and increased labour costs.    

22nd May 2025

Key takeaway: The story broadly over the past couple of years has been continued strength in the Services sector and continued weakness in the Manufacturing sector. The latest flash PMI data for May showed Services Business Activity picked up pace in May after the slowdown seen in March. Similarly, there was continued improvement in Manufacturing as well with the PMI improving from 50.2 to 52.3. Even though this marks 5 consecutive months of Manufacturing PMI above 50 i.e. in expansion territory, the sector remains soft overall straddling the 50 mark between expansion and contraction. The manufacturing sector saw some solid improvement in new orders, but mostly from the domestic economy. New export orders remained anemic similar recent years. The Composite Index increased from 50.6 in April to 51.1 in May. One of the most notable points in recent PMI releases has been the sharp uptick in prices. That trend continued in May as well with average prices charged for goods and services rising at a rate not seen since mid 2022 when inflation was at its peak. Higher charges were attributed to rising costs, linked widely in turn to tariffs, rising import costs and increased labour costs.    

23rd Apr 2025

Key takeaway: The story broadly over the past couple of years has been continued strength in the Services sector and continued weakness in the Manufacturing sector. The latest flash PMI data for April showed Services Business Activity slowed from the previous month of March, though it still remained above 50 i.e. in expansion territory. The Services Business Activity Index fell from 54.4 in March to 51.4 in April. New business inflows in the services sector showed the second smallest gain recorded over the past 11 months. On the other hand, there was a bit of an improvement in Manufacturing with the PMI improving from 50.2 to 50.7. Even though this marks 4 consecutive months of Manufacturing PMI above 50 i.e. in expansion territory, the sector remains soft overall straddling the 50 mark between expansion and contraction. The Composite Index decreased from 53.5 in March to 51.2 in April. One of the most notable points in the latest PMI release was the sharp uptick in prices. Average prices charged for goods and services rose in April at the sharpest rate for 13 months, increasing especially sharply in the manufacturing sector. Higher charges were attributed to rising costs, linked widely in turn to tariffs, rising import costs and increased labour costs.    

24th Mar 2025

Key takeaway: After 2 months of improved manufacturing PMI prints above the 50 level, we are back to familiar territory with the March PMI – continued strength in the Services sector and continued weakness in the Manufacturing sector. Manufacturing output and other sub indexes had improved substantially during the first 2 months of the year. There was an expectation that the higher readings were mostly on account of front-running tariffs and the underlying weakness in manufacturing still persists. Readings for the Services sector jumped substantially though with output growth picking up momentum for the first time this year. The Business Activity Index rose from 51.0 in February to 54.3 in March. New business inflows also improved in the Services sector. The last notable point was the substantial rise in input cost pressures – both in the manufacturing and services sector. Input prices indexes have consistently been higher for a few months now. Selling prices also increased, though at a lesser rate – which indicates margin pressures on businesses and manufacturing firms.    

21st Feb 2025

Key takeaway: The US PMI story has been one of continued strength in the Services sector and continued weakness in the Manufacturing sector over the past 2 years. However, over the past couple of months there have been initial indications of a reversal in the fortunes of these 2 sectors. The latest S&P PMI report for the month of  February showed overall continued growth in the US economy. But, similar to last month, output slowed in the services sector and gained in the manufacturing sector. However, since the services sector is the larger of the 2, the composite output index declined as well. The Services Business Activity Index fell below the critical 50 mark to record 49.7, lower than the 52.9 recorded in January. The Manufacturing Output Index increased from 51.8 to 53.8, an 11 month high. Similarly, the Manufacturing PMI also increased from 51.2 to 51.6. One of the key aspects to monitor going forward will be whether the upturn in manufacturing will be sustained or is it an one off event caused by front running of tariffs. The other notable points from the latest release were increases in input costs, some cooling in selling price inflation and a slight fall in employment.     

24th Jan 2025

Key takeaway: The latest S&P PMI report for the month of  January continued to show sustained growth in the US economy. However, unlike most of the past 2 years, there was some indication of a slowdown in the service sector and a pick up in the manufacturing sector (instead of vice versa). The Services Business Activity Index reduced from 56.8 to 52.8, a 9 month low. The Manufacturing Output Index, on the other hand, expanded from 47.7 to 50.2, the first time in 6 months that manufacturing is in expansion territory. The other notable point about the latest release was a positive employment report with employment index rising at the fastest pace in the past 2 and a half years. The improvement was mostly led by jobs in the service sector. At the same time, a rise in the Prices Index also indicated intensifying inflationary pressures in the economy. Both input costs and selling prices rose at the fastest pace in the past 4 months.   

16th Dec 2024

Key takeaway: The latest S&P PMI report for the month of  December is yet another indicator of strong momentum in the US economy. At the same time, the latest data continues to show the divergence between the manufacturing and services sectors. The latest flash report showed business activity and output accelerating further. Business mood seemed to be brightening as inflation cools and the election results promise more fiscal spending and more euphoria in the markets. The Services sector continued to expand with the Business Activity Index at 58.5 vs 56.1 in November. New Orders in Services also continued to post strong numbers. New orders for services rose at a rate not seen since April 2022! However, Manufacturing which had seen a bit of resurgence since late 2023, continues to remain soft. Manufacturing output remained in contraction territory at 46.0 – lower than November’s 47.9. This is also the sixth successive month that Manufacturing PMI is below 50. Overall employment edged higher in December, up for the first time in 5 months.    

22nd Nov 2024

Key takeaway: The latest S&P PMI report for the month of  November showed business activity and output accelerating. Business mood seemed to be brightening as inflation cools and the election results promise more euphoria in the markets. The underlying story remains intact – Services sector has been resilient and Manufacturing continues to be weak. Overall activity in the economy continues to be robust, but the divergence between manufacturing and services continues. The Services sector continued to expand with the Business Activity Index at 57.0 vs 55.0 in October. New Orders in Services also continued to post strong numbers. New orders for services rose at a rate not seen since April 2022! However, Manufacturing which had seen a bit of resurgence since late 2023, continues to remain soft. Manufacturing output remained in contraction territory at 46.3 – lower than October’s 49.2. This is also the fifth successive month that Manufacturing PMI is below 50. However, the rate of deterioration in the PMI moderated this month. Although output fell at an increased rate, the rate of loss of new orders eased and employment rose. Those were both positive outcomes. Overall though, companies reduced employment for the fourth successive month in November as payrolls reduced in the Services sector.    

24th Oct 2024

Key takeaway: Once again, the latest S&P PMI report for the month of  October shows not much change from the previous month of September. However, the underlying story remains intact – that was Services resilience and weakness in Manufacturing. Overall activity in the economy continues to be robust, but the divergence between manufacturing and services continues. The Services sector continued to expand with the Business Activity Index at 55.3 vs 55.2 in September. New Orders in Services also continued to post strong numbers. However, Manufacturing which had seen a bit of resurgence since late 2023, is faltering once again. Manufacturing output remained in contraction territory at 48.8 – though it improved from September’s 47.9. This is the fourth successive month that Manufacturing PMI is below 50. The last key point to note about the latest PMI is the continued weakness in the Employment Index. Employment fell for the third successive month though the decline was modest and lesser than August and September. Once again the decline in employment continued to be led by the Manufacturing Sector.     

23rd Sep 2024

Key takeaway: The latest S&P PMI report for the month of  September was quite similar to the previous month of August. Overall activity in the economy continues to be robust, but the divergence between manufacturing and services seems to be widening again. The Services sector continued to post decent numbers with the Business Activity Index at 55.4 vs 55.7 in August. However, Manufacturing which had seen a bit of resurgence since late 2023, is faltering once again. Manufacturing output decreased from 48.9 to 48.2. The Manufacturing PMI also continued to be in contraction territory at 47.0. The last key point to note about the latest PMI was a sharp reduction in the Employment Index. Once again the reduction in this sub-index was mostly led by the Manufacturing sector.    

22nd Aug 2024

Key takeaway: S&P Global flash May PMI data indicated a continued overall expansion in business activity in the month of August. However, the divergence between manufacturing and services seems to be widening again. Manufacturing had seen a bit of resurgence since late 2023. However, the past few PMIs have indicated a soft manufacturing picture once again. The Services PMI increased from 55.0 to 55.2. The Composite declined slightly from 54.2 to 54.1. However, manufacturing output slumped from 50.5 to 47.8. Price pressures have generally abated on both the supplier and customer front. One adverse point from recent PMI’s including the latest one is a weakening employment picture in both manufacturing and services.   

24th Jul 2024

Key takeaway: S&P Global flash July PMI data indicated a continued overall expansion in business activity in the month of July. The key indices generally increased a bit. The only key story in the latest PMI numbers were the re-emergence of the divergence between manufacturing and services. Manufacturing, in the US, had been on a bit of an uptrend since mid-2023. However, the headline Manufacturing PMI after having been above 50 for a few months, slipped below this key level once again in July. The drop was marginally below 50 – at 49.5. Overall activity in the Services sector seems robust once again. Price pressures are mixed on both the supply and customer side. The employment index also rose for a second successive month.  

21st Jun 2024

Key takeaway: S&P Global flash June PMI data indicated a continued overall expansion in business activity in the month of June. Generally speaking, the story of late has been a resurgence in manufacturing and a slowdown in the pace of growth of Services. In contrast, the US PMI composite index had posted a sharp rise in the previous month in May on the back of some robust activity in the Services sector. That trend continued again in June with a rise in the overall composite output index contributed by a rise in both Services and Manufacturing. Services Output Index rose from 54.8 in May to 551.1 in June. The increase was also driven by an increase in the key orders index, mostly on the back of domestic demand strength. Export continued to remain weaker in comparison – once again highlighting the US vs the rest of the world economic performance story. The Manufacturing Output Index fell from 53.0 to 51.9. The Manufacturing PMI increased slightly from 51.3 to 51.7. Generally speaking, Manufacturing PMIs have bottomed and shown some signs of resurgence since late 2023 and the start of 2024. However, the most recent couple of months have indicated that the resurgence is weakening. However, on the balance, this was a very positive PMI report. Apart from the headline increases and the increases in Orders, Prices and Employment indexes also moved generally in the right direction. Both Selling Price inflation and input price inflation exhibited signs of cooling in June. Lastly, employment – which had seen declines in April and May- picked up back again in June.  

23rd May 2024

Key takeaway: S&P Global flash May PMI data indicated a sharp overall expansion in business activity in the month of May. Generally speaking, the story of late has been a resurgence in manufacturing and a slowdown in the pace of growth of Services. In contrast, the US PMI composite index rose from 51.3 in April to 54.4 in May, significantly led by expansion in Services activity – which rose from 51.3 to 54.8. While output has generally risen for most of the past year, May saw an acceleration compared to the slower prints seen in April and March. The recent data that showed slowdown in retail sales and a weaker Q1 GDP print, make this sudden surge in the composite PMI all the more interesting. However, while that was a positive sign, input and output prices also increased at a faster pace indicating continued worries of persistently high inflation. Employment also fell for a second successive month in May, in contrast to the continual hiring trend witnessed in the past 4 years. The reduction though was marginal as manufacturing continued to add jobs. The Manufacturing PMI rose from 50.0 in April to 50.9 in May signalling an overall modest improvement in business conditions within the goods producing sector.

23rd Apr 2024

Key takeaway: The latest PMI data from S&P Global for the month of April was broadly weak. Overall output, which includes services business and manufacturing, fell from 52.1 in March to 50.9 in April. While this is above the 50 level which marks expansion in activity, it was nonetheless a drop from last month and a 4 month low. The rate of expansion slowed among signs of weaker demand. April saw a reduction in new orders for the first time in 6 months. Interestingly, international demand held up slightly better than domestic sales. There is an increasing thought that the rest of the world might start to see better growth as the US slows down after a strong 2023. Manufacturing, which has seen some resurgence in the past 3-6 months, slowed in April. Manufacturing PMI posted 49.9 from 51.9 last month. While the drop is not large, it still indicates a weaker picture and ends a 3 month sequence of improving PMIs. Another negative factor in the manufacturing PMI was the continued growth in input prices from higher raw material and fuel prices indicating inflationary pressures are likely to continue. Overall, the released data was perceived as weak by markets and bod yields generally moved down in response with the 10 Year falling 7 basis points.

21st Mar 2024

Key takeaway: The broad story in the PMI data in March was the same as that in February. Of late, we have started to see a bit of a moderation in Services and a pick up in Manufacturing. The March PMI data lent further support to this story. Flash US PMI data from S&P for the month of March showed US companies continued to report an expansion in activity, although at a slower pace. The headline Composite Output Index declined slightly from 52.5 in February to 52.2 in March. Yet, it remains above 50 and hence in expansion territory. The Services Business activity index also declined marginally from 52.3 in February to 51.7 in March. While both these Indexes were slightly lower compared to February, it is key to note that last month’s final numbers were also above the initial flash estimates. That apart, the real story in the PMI data continues to be in Manufacturing. The Output Index had risen above 50 in February for the first time in recent months. The Index surged higher to 54.9 in March. US Manufacturing PMI also increased to a 18 month high from 52.2 in February to 52.5 in March. Through most of 2023 Services Sector output generally expanded and on the other hand, manufacturing output was subdued, which still resulted in the Composite Index to be in positive territory. That story gradually seems to be turning now as manufacturing seems to have bottomed out and PMIs across various surveys turning slightly higher. The slight upturn in Manufacturing PMI is a very crucial point to note. Most recession forecasters point to Manufacturing being the key leading indicator of softness in the overall economy given the highly cyclical nature of manufacturing. Hence, any significant upturn in manufacturing really underlines the soft landing or no landing narrative. The last key point to note in this report was inflationary pressures seem to be rising again with input cost inflation quickening to a six month high. In turn, companies in the US also raised selling prices at a faster pace.  

22nd Feb 2024

Key takeaway: Flash US PMI data from S&P for the month of February showed US companies continued to report an expansion in activity, although at a slower pace. The headline Composite Output Index declined slightly from 52.0 in January to 51.4. Yet, it remains above 50 and hence in expansion territory. The Services Business activity index also declined marginally from 52.5 in January to 51.3 in February. Lastly manufacturing also posted some improvement with the Output Index rising above 50 for the first time in recent months. US Manufacturing PMI also increased to a 17 month high from 50.7 in January to 51.5 in February. Through most of 2023 Services Sector output generally expanded and on the other hand, manufacturing output was subdued, which still resulted in the Composite Index to be in positive territory. That story gradually seems to be turning now as manufacturing seems to have bottomed out and PMIs across various surveys turning slightly higher. New orders have also been increasing in the manufacturing PMI data over the past few months. The slight upturn in Manufacturing PMI is a very crucial point to note. Most recession forecasters point to Manufacturing being the key leading indicator of softness in the overall economy given the highly cyclical nature of manufacturing. Hence, any significant upturn in manufacturing really underlines the soft landing narrative. The last key point to note in this report was that Employment continued to expand, albeit at a softer pace. One of the key takeaways from the November PMI report had been fall a sharp fall in employment. The November PMI report had shown that US companies lowered their workforce during November for the first time in almost 3.5 years. Dwindling levels of unfinished business had impacted hiring decisions at companies as backlogs of work fell. In contrast, employment picked back up again in the Services sector in December, January and February as output expanded. Interestingly, even manufacturing reported a broad-based increase in hiring in February. 

24th Jan 2024

Key takeaway: Unlike some of the PMI data from recent months, the latest flash PMI estimate from S&P Global for January 2024 showed a substantial move up. Firstly, the Composite Output index increased from 50.9 in December to 52.3. We have seen through most of 2023 that the Services Sector output has generally expanded and on the other hand, manufacturing output has contracted, which still resulted in the Composite Index to be in positive territory. That story continued to some extent in the start of 2024 as well. However, even though Manufacturing Output was still below 50, the US Manufacturing PMI jumped sharply from 47.9 in December to 50.3 in January. The most significant component of this rise was an advance in new orders for manufacturers – the first rise since October 2023 and the sharpest pace since May 2022. Most of these new orders came from domestic customers as export orders remained soft. This is also a recurrence of the strong US growth and weak Europe growth story that we have seen through most of the past 2 years. The slight upturn in Manufacturing PMI is a very crucial point to note. Most recession forecasters point to Manufacturing being the key leading indicator of softness in the overall economy given the highly cyclical nature of manufacturing. Hence, any significant upturn in manufacturing really underlines the soft landing narrative. The last key point to note in this report was that Employment continued to expand, albeit at a softer pace. One of the key takeaways from the November PMI report had been fall a sharp fall in employment. The November PMI report had shown that US companies lowered their workforce during November for the first time in almost 3.5 years. Dwindling levels of unfinished business had impacted hiring decisions at companies as backlogs of work fell. In contrast, employment picked back up again in the Services sector in December and January as output expanded. Manufacturing, on the other hand, continued to cut workers.   

15th Dec 2023

Key takeaway: The latest flash PMI estimate from S&P Global for December 2023, once again, did not show much of a change from the last month. PMIs have mostly plateaued in the recent months. Firstly, Manufacturing, which was generally in a declining trend through most of 2022, stabilized in the past 6 months or so. Even though most PMI’s (including the S&P) suggests that manufacturing remains in a contractionary territory below 50, it has stabilized at this low level nonetheless and has not been falling further. Similarly, the Services PMI even though lower compared to most of 2022, has also mostly plateaued. Similar to the previous month, there were a couple of key points to take note. One of the key takeaways from the previous month’s PMI report had been fall in employment indicated in the PMIs. Generally in a economic cycle, manufacturing starts to show signs of declining employment first, followed by the Services sector. The November PMI report had shown that US companies lowered their workforce during November for the first time in almost 3.5 years. Dwindling levels of unfinished business had impacted hiring decisions at companies as backlogs of work fell for the 7th month running. In contrast, employment picked back up again in the Services sector in December as output expanded. Manufacturing, on the other hand, continued to cut workers. The second key point to note has also been a recent increase in input prices which might have the effect of re-acceleration in downstream inflation or reduction in business margins.   

24th Nov 2023

Key takeaway: The latest flash PMI estimate from S&P Global for November 2023, once again, did not show much of a change from the last month. PMIs have mostly plateaued in the recent months. Firstly, Manufacturing, which was generally in a declining trend through most of 2022, stabilized in the past 6 months or so. Even though most PMI’s (including the S&P) suggests that manufacturing remains in a contractionary territory below 50, it hs stabilized at this low level nonetheless and has not been falling further. Similarly, the Services PMI even though lower compared to most of 2022 and 2022 has also mostly plateaued. However, even though there wasnt much movement in the headline PMIs this month, there were a couple of key points to take note of. The most important being the fall in employment indicated in the PMIs. Generally in a economic cycle, manufacturing starts to show signs of declining employment fist, followed by the Services sector. The latest PMI report showed that US companies lowered their workforce during November for the first time in almost 3.5 years. Dwindling levels of unfinished business impacted hiring decisions at companies as backlogs of work fell for the 7th month running. The second key point to note was that even though input prices pressures continued to abate, businesses raised their selling prices at a quicker pace. This might be a one-off reading. But if the trend continued this might result in a re-acceleration of inflation.   

24th Oct 2023

Key takeaway: The latest flash PMI estimate from S&P Global for October 2023 did not show much of a change from the last month. The Composite Output Index, Business Activity Index and Manufacturing Output Index, all moved up a bit compared to September. The Manufacturing PMI also moved up a bit and at 50.0 was no longer in contractionary territory. Overall not a large or meaningful change in the headline numbers. However, there were a few details to take note of. The slight upturn seems to be more supported by manufacturing than services. The Manufacturing sector seems to have found a bottom or at least stabilized over the past few months. Other PMI statistics have also indicated the same. New business at service sector continued to soften – though has not yet reached alarming levels. On the other hand, foreign client demand has continued to remain very weak – highlighting the difference between the US economy and the rest of the world – attributable in part to a strong dollar. The other key point to note was that input prices which had registered a renewed uptick in the last couple of months, given the rise in energy and commodity costs, also cooled a bit in October. Once again the notable point here was that the uptick in input prices was sharpest in manufacturing compared to services. On the whole, in comparison to 2021 and 2022, companies are not choosing to pass on the entire cost burden to customers. The reasons can be attributed to a soft demand scenario and companies choosing to drive sales over increasing prices. Either ways, this is beneficial for inflation data but detrimental to corporate profits.  

22nd Sep 2023

Key takeaway: The US PMI Composite output fell for the fourth month in a row, although the fall was marginal (from 50.2 in August to 50.1 in September). However, the more important point to note is that Services, which had been the flag bearer for growth, has generally been diminishing over the past few months. PMI trends in the Services sector are starting to indicate a deepening softening in the economy. New Orders fell at the strongest pace since the start of 2023 primarily driven by a slowdown in new business in the Services sector. Manufacturing also saw a drop in new sales, although at a slightly lower pace. Overall Manufacturing PMI recorded 48.9 in September and hence continues to be in contraction territory, although the pace of contraction seems to have levelled out over the past couple of months. Input prices are on the upswing and that was evidenced in the September PMI data as well. However, the key difference compared to 2021 and 2022 is that customer demand in softening and that limits businesses’ ability to transfer price increases to customers. Softening demand might lead to lower downstream inflation. But rising input costs at the same time can lead to margin compression for US businesses.   

23rd Aug 2023

Key takeaway: The flash S&P Composite PMI Output Index fell to 50.4 in August from 52.0 in July. This marks the 3rd month in a row of decreasing Composite Output PMI. And the latest print sits close to the contractionary 50 mark! The story thus far had been of resilience in the Services sector and prolonged weakness in the Manufacturing sector. The latest August PMI print was especially key since this was the first time since February that US firms noted a decrease in the important New Orders metric. Softening demand is starting to weigh on the Services sector more now than the last year or so. On the other hand Manufacturers continue to face challenges as before with new orders decreasing at a more rapid pace. The decline in new orders sets up for a decrease in output in late 3Q and early 4Q. The Atlanta GDP Now tracker still forecasts US 3Q GDP growth to be 5.8%. It will be key to see how this number changes as we get closer to quarter close. What makes this scenario more precarious, is that coupled with a slowdown in activity, input costs have been on the rise again due to a general increase in energy and raw material costs. Softening demand might lead to lower inflation. But rising input costs at the same time can lead to margin compression for US businesses.   

24th Jul 2023

Key takeaway: The flash S&P Composite PMI Index fell to 52.0 in July from 53.2 in June. Now there are 2 ways to interpret this. First, it is a reading that still indicates expansion (above 50). This shows a further rise in business activity in the US led by the Services sector. On the other hand, it can also be read as a continuing slowdown for a second month in a row (June Composite PMI had declined to 53.2 from 54.3 in May). New Orders rose further in July, but the rate of expansion slowed for a 2nd month in a row again. Manufacturing PMI improved a bit – from 46.3 in June to 49.0 in July. However, this is the 3rd month in a row of negative manufacturing PMI prints. The June Services PMI report had indicated that while input prices remain high, companies chose to remain competitive and drive sales which led to a slower uptick in output prices in June. This trend reversed a bit in July and output price inflation gained steam once again.  

23rd Jun 2023

Key takeaway: After 5 consecutive months of robust PMI prints, June caught a breather. Headline flash Composite PMI for June registered 53.0, down from 54.3 in May. As a refresher of events over the past 5 months – PMIs had turned a corner and began an upswing from the start of 2023. A lot of that upswing was indeed driven by the Services sector. But Manufacturing PMI’s had also staged a small upswing. That trend was broken with the June number. The key question is whether this is a turning point to a downward draft similar to January’s pivot to an upswing. New Orders continued to rise in Services although the pace was slower compared to the start of the year. On the other hand, new orders in manufacturing contracted at the fastest pace since Dec 2022. Also, in a key development, the latest Services PMI report indicated that while input prices remain high, companies chose to remain competitive and drive sales which led to a slower uptick in output prices in June. While this is a positive development from an inflation perspective, it might spell bad news for corporate profits through the rest of the year.  

23 May 2023

Key takeaway: The headline flash Composite PMI for May registered 54.5, up from 53.4 in April and beating expectations of 50.0. This continues a solid trend of strong PMIs coming out of the US since the start of the year. Similar to the past 4 months, the strength is being driven by the Services sector (where PMI for May rose to 55.1 from 53.6 in April. The rate of growth in activity of services companies was the highest in a year! Stronger demand conditions from customers led to further new orders – which grew at the fastest pace since April 2022. Employment also rose at a faster pace at Services companies. And most importantly, Services companies remain optimistic for the rest of the year. Which begs the question – “Where is the Recession?!!”. Manufacturing, which had also been in a mini uptrend during the start of 2023, registered some moderation in activity and outlook according to the flash PMI in May. The US Manufacturing PMI reduced to 48.5 (back in contraction territory) from 50.2 in April. While output at manufacturing firms increased in May, the overall PMI and most other indicators declined on a month on month basis. This manufacturing PMI data is also best viewed together with the Regional Fed PMIs. Two recent manufacturing surveys, the NY Fed and the Richmond Fed, both have reported sizeable declines in manufacturing activity. The last point to consider about the latest S&P composite PMI release is that the overall price pressures (both input and output charges) remain fairly high by historical standards – which is a good indicator of further prices pressures on the CPI and the stickiness of higher prices in the economy.  

21st Apr 2023

Key takeaway: When PMIs (both S&P and ISM) had churned positive surprises at the start of the year, many market participants had attributed that to un-seasonally mild weather. However, with 4 consecutive months of fairly positive PMI data, that narrative is firmly out of the window. For the 4th month in a row the S&P US Composite Output Index has increased showing a resilient economy. Output increased at the sharpest pace since May 2022. A large part of the momentum is being driven by the Services Sector. New orders in Services grew for a 2nd month in a row. On the other hand export orders continue to be soft – indicating a weaker global economy (a trend that has been prevalent for the past year). However, one of the more notable aspects to note in the past couple of PMI releases, has been the strength in the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing PMI was in expansionary territory (above 50) for the first time since Nov 2022. Even though the upturn is nominal, the trend has been upwards since the start of the year. Both output and employment grew in the manufacturing sector in April and new orders recorded a rise as well. However, the flip side of all this positive momentum in the services and manufacturing sector can be seen in the input and output price indexes in the PMIs. April data indicated a pick up in the rates of input cost and output charge inflation. Employment creation also seems to be accelerating. Both of these developments are negative from an inflation perspective.   

24th Mar 2023

Key takeaway: With the release of the preliminary reading for the S&P Global PMI for March, the narrative that the robust readings seen across PMIs in January was only because of good weather, takes a hard beating. The Mar PMI signals that US companies are showing a solid renewal in business expansion. Output has grown at the fastest pace since May 2022. New orders which were mostly in contractionary territory in 2H 2022 returned back to growth. A large part of the strength in new orders was evidently in the services sector. However, even the manufacturing sector recorded an improvement in business activity – though still in contractionary territory. On the other hand overall new export orders contracted for the 10th successive month highlighting the difference between the US economy and the rest of the world. Unfortunately, prices sub indexes have been also increasing since the past couple of months and that is disconcerting from an inflation perspective. Stronger demand conditions also resulted in faster employment growth in March. All of these factors cumulatively point to a still robust economy, price pressures and a tight labour market.  

21st Feb 2023

Key takeaway: Recall that the S&P Global Composite PMI had been in contractionary territory for most of 2H 2022. However, there was a mild uptick in the PMI data in January. That trend continued in February with the Composite PMI reading improving from 46.8 to 50.2. Given the recent positive surprise readings on the ISM PMI as well, it is reasonable to believe there has been an improvement in business activity in the US in the recent couple of months. Unfortunately, that spells bad news from a rate hiking perspective. Although new orders continued to contract in February, the pace of decline was the slowest since October 2022. A similar slower decline in growth was seen in export orders as well. The Feb PMI data also showed a sharper rise in output charges across the private sector i.e. selling prices were increasing and at a faster rate! Employment also remained buoyant in Feb. All of these factors cumulatively point to a still robust economy, price pressures and a tight labour market.  

24th Jan 2023

Key takeaway: The S&P Global Composite PMI has been in contractionary territory since the last 6 months and continued to be in contraction territory in January as well. But, as with many other indicators, what matters to financial markets is the direction of data and the rate of change. On this front, the January PMIs can actually be read as favourable even though they were in contraction territory. The fall in business activity slowed to the slowest in 3 months. Similarly, new orders declined for the 4th consecutive month, but again the fall was modest and was slower than the pace of decline of the past 3 months. On the balance, the data exceeded consensus expectations. However, one of the most important points to note in this latest PMI data was the surprise increase in input prices – which increased after decelerating for the past 7 months. While a month certainly does not make a trend, it is certain that the Fed staff will take note of this development! The rise in input costs also resulted in an uptick in selling prices – as indicated in the data. Lastly, the data also recorded a marginal rise in employment which was primarily driven by the service sector.  

16th Dec 2022

Key takeaway: The S&P Global Composite PMI has been in contractionary territory since the last 5 months. However, the pace of its downward trend is unmistakably accelerating. December saw further contraction in business activity from November (Reading at 44.6 from 46.4). Most importantly, new orders fell even more sharply across the private sector. Backlogs of work declined for the third straight month in December. On the employment front, while hiring had started to slow down notably in the last 6 months, the incidences of layoffs have started to become little more prominent now. Although still far from substantial – which can also be seen in the relatively subdued figures of Initial Claims. PMIs are one of the best leading indicators of the economy. And increasingly data suggests that the Fed’s rate hikes are having its desired effects and business activity is slowing substantially. On the other side, it is also aiding a quicker fall in price pressures and easing of supply chains  

23rd Nov 2022

Key takeaway: PMIs are one of the best leading indicators of the economy. The S&P US PMI has been trending down since the high of mid 2021. After a couple of months of fairly optimistic PMI readings, the indicator has picked up pace once again to the downside. November saw a significant contraction in business activity across the private sector. The fall in activity was the second fastest since May 2020. More importantly, new orders fell also at the fastest pace since May 2020. The pace of decline in new export orders also picked up pace. The sharp falls in new orders and new export orders led to a reduction in outstanding business / business backlogs. While we still have not started seeing broad based layoffs, the PMIs have started indicating a meaningful reduction in hiring. Arguably businesses are still resorting to “labour hoarding” because the labour market still remains relatively tight as well as the recency bias from businesses struggling to hire throughout 2021 and 2022. Amongst all the negative news in the PMIs, one of the most important positive developments has been easing of supply chains and deliveries. However, the jury is still out on whether the improvement in deliveries is due to improving bottlenecks or reducing demand!  

24th Oct 2022

Key takeaway: There were a number of points to note in this PMI report. First – S&P Global PMIs generally have been reflecting a deeper downturn than its peer the ISM PMIs. Recollect that September S&P PMI data broke with this earlier trend and reflected a relatively upbeat economy similar to ISM. October, is however, back to trend reflecting a deeper down drift. Second – While overall PMI is weaker, Manufacturing PMI is specifically in contraction territory for the first time since Covid 2020. Third – the all important New Orders have returned to contraction in October. And last – input price growth has actually scaled up a bit once again. Bad news from the inflation perspective. However, the mitigating factor is that this price is getting passed on the consumers to a lesser degree. Yet, with the recent rise in oil prices, it does not augur well to see a upward shift in input price growth in services and manufacturing PMIs.       

23rd Sep 2022

Key takeaway: After breaking with the trends observed in the ISM PMIs for the last few months, the September S&P PMI release was a little bit more in line with ISM. The index still showed a decline in overall output continuing the trend that started 2 months back. But the rate of decline was much softer (Composite Index is up from 44.5 to 49.3). Another major positive was that new orders were in expansion territory again. Input costs continue to grow, but the rate of increase continues to fall in line with recent trends (positive for future inflation). And employment still seems fairly healthy – which still points to a tight labor market.     

23rd Aug 2022

Key takeaway: The headline point to note is with the latest PMI reading, we have recorded 2 consecutive months of contractionary readings (i.e. below 50). There is no doubt that PMIs are trending lower and indicating lower economic activity. But the devil, once again, is in the details. New order / new export orders fell again. Firms are scaling back hiring and employment at the slowest pace since the start of the year. Backlogs of work, which were a key driver of activity, are drying up as final demand is softening. Lastly one of the most important points to note was also the drop in new orders in the Services segment (which a few months back was mostly only being seen on the manufacturing side).     

22nd Jul 2022

Key takeaway: It is worth looking at the past 2 year history to put the June 2022 PMI reading into context. US manufacturing and services activity went through a robust expansion throughout 2021. In the early months of 2022, manufacturing and services continued to expand, but there were visible signs of slowdown in demand. Starting 2Q 2022, we saw notable drops in new orders but the overall indexes were still in expansion territory. Finally now, overall index readings in both manufacturing and services are in contractionary territory. New orders / export orders continue to weaken. Similarly, the rate of job creation has slowed down, in part due to cost cutting initiatives – especially by manufacturing firms. The only silver lining is that the rate of input inflation as well as selling prices have started to slow down, though it remains high historically.    

23rd Jun 2022

Key takeaway: The latest PMI numbers are important for a bunch of reasons. Recall that the trend of weakening data in PMI has been noticeable since Feb / March 2022 (though it was still expansionary). That weakening trend continued. But with some alarming more developments. New orders, which had been resilient even in the past 4 months, contracted for the first time since July 2020. New export orders, an indication of overseas demand, contracted as well. Moreover, cost of inputs and labor continued their upward march which will continue to squeeze business margins. The silver lining though was that the pace of increase of costs slowed down. Lastly, and very importantly, the manufacturing output index fell below 50 indicating a contraction in manufacturing output.   

24th May 2022

Key takeaway: The trend of weaker data in PMI continued from March to April to May. There are still a few key points to note from the May PMI release. First, new orders and new business continues to grow in the manufacturing and services industries. Remember the PMI is a diffusion index. So, readings above 50 still indicate an expansion and not a contraction. Second, input prices continue to soar – both in manufacturing and services. Third, employment levels and labour costs continue to increase. In summary, while PMI surveys indicate economic expansion, demand is visibly slowing with no let up of input costs or labour inflation.  

22nd Apr 2022

Key takeaway: Overall April PMI data was weaker than March. However, both Feb and March numbers had been significantly strong post an Omicron led weak January. The most important point to note in the April release was the continuation of increase in new orders which shows business strength. The data is still far from evidencing any meaningful slowdown in consumption demand.   

24th Mar 2022

Key takeaway: PMI data in January 2022 had come out weak. But the assessment at that time was that it was Omicron related. Feb 22 activity numbers confirmed that view. Now March numbers have reinforced it. Private sector activity and output remained significantly strong in March. Which reaffirms the view that the first quarter has been fairly good for the US economy. But this also means that the upward pressure on both CPI and wage inflation continues!   

22nd Feb 2022

Key takeaway: As expected, business activity picked up substantially in Feb 2022 compared to Jan 2022. This was also evidence that that Jan drop in activity / output was more supply constraint and omicron related, than any kind of reduction in aggregate demand. This further strengthens the case for monetary policy tightening

24th Jan 2022

Key takeaway: Business activity slowed substantially in January 2022. But the reasons might be more supply constraint related than lack of or slowing demand

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. The Service PMI data are based on surveys of over 400 executives in private sector service companies and cover transport and communication, financial intermediaries, business and personal services, computing & IT, hotels and restaurants. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.

S&P Global PMI