US Macro Updates

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We simplify and summarize key data so that you don’t have to spend hours reading confusing and long media releases. Read key economic releases and major events here in under 2 minutes. And we will explain the key takeaway for you. Stay informed and form a robust view on macroeconomic matters to aid your successful investment decisions

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24th Nov 2023

Asset and Liabilities of US Commercial Banks

Key takeaway: Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the banking panics of SVB, SB and FRC earlier in the year, market participants have been keenly tracking this release to observe deposit outflows – especially from small banks. On the other hand, bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 is turning out to be a lot more muted.

While a rapid decline in credit creation is yet to be seen, it is undoubtedly slowing. For instance, overall Bank credit is contracting at an annualized rate of 3.3% based on October 2023 numbers. A large part of the contraction is attributable to the securities portfolio of banks which contracted at an annualized rate of 14%. But lending is significantly lower compared to 2022 levels. As per the last data in the H.8 release, Loans and Leases grew at a SA annual rate of 1.2% in October 2023. While this is significantly below 2022 levels, the key point to note is that the sharp decline in bank credit that everyone expected at the start of 2023 hasn’t really materialized.
Amongst the various lending categories, the decline in Commercial and Industrial loans has been noticeable in 2023. However, based on the latest data, C&I loans also increased at a 2.3% annualized rate in October. Similar to the overall lending data, C&I loans have also seen a slight re-acceleration in recent months.
Commercial real estate lending slowed to a SA annual rate of +0.3% in October. Residential real estate lending, on the other had, has witnessed some re-acceleration in recent months with closed-end residential loans growing at an annualized rate of 6.1% in September. However, the latest data for October showed Residential loans declining at a SA annualized rate of 0.8%
Consumer credit has so far shown a sharp growth in recent months as consumers load on incremental credit card debt. The latest release though shows Consumer Loans expanding at a 0.3% annualized rate in October.
Deposits in the banking system also showed a modest growth in September (annualized 1.0% growth) and a 0.1% growth in October. Deposits have held up more or less at an unchanged level since the past year. This is also consistent with other data releases – specifically the drop in the RRP balances and the maintenance of bank reserves at an unchanged level in the Fed balance sheet data (H.4.1).

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

20th Oct 2023

While a rapid decline in credit creation is yet to be seen, it is undoubtedly slowing. For instance, overall Bank credit is contracting at an annualized rate of 0.6% based on September 2023 numbers. A large part of the contraction is attributable to the securities portfolio of banks which contracted at an annualized rate of 8%. But lending is significantly lower compared to 2022 levels. As per the last data in the H.8 release, Loans and Leases grew at a SA annual rate of 2.6% in September 2023. While this is significantly below 2022 levels, the past couple of months have seen a re-acceleration in bank lending.
The decline in Commercial and Industrial loans has been noticeable in 2023. However, based on the latest data, C&I loans also increased at a 0.4% annualized rate in September. Similar to the overall lending data, C&I loans have also seen a slight re-acceleration in recent months.
Commercial real estate lending slowed to a SA annual rate of +0.9% in September. Residential real estate lending, on the other had, has witnessed some re-acceleration in recent months with closed-end residential loans growing at an annualized rate of 6.2% in September.
Consumer credit showed a sharp growth in September 2023. The latest release shows Consumer Loans expanding at a 3.7% annualized rate primarily driven by credit card balances.
Deposits in the banking system also showed a modest growth in September 2023 (annualized 1.0% growth) compared to a sharp fall in August 2023 (annualized 2.9% decline) Deposits have held up more or less at an unchanged level since the past year. This is also consistent with other data releases – specifically the drop in the RRP balances and the maintenance of bank reserves at an unchanged level in the Fed balance sheet data (H.4.1).

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

22nd Sep 2023

Key takeaway: Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the recent banking panics of SVB, SB and FRC, market participants have been keenly tracking this release to observe deposit outflows – especially from small banks. On the other hand, bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 is turning out to be a lot more muted.

While a rapid decline in credit creation is yet to be seen, credit creation is undoubtedly slowing. For instance, overall Bank credit is contracting at an annualized rate of 2.8% based on August 2023 numbers. A large part of the contraction is attributable to the securities portfolio of banks. But lending is slowing as well. As per the last data in the H.8 release, Loans and Leases grew at a SA annual rate of 2.0% in August 2023. While this is an improvement over the negative rates seen in the prior months, it is still significantly below 2022 as well as pre-pandemic averages.
The decline in Commercial and Industrial loans has also been noticeable in 2023. Similar to overall Loans and Leases, based on the latest data, C&I loans were unchanged to show a 0% annualized rate in August. Once again an improvement over the minus 3.6% rate recorded in June.
Commercial real estate lending slowed to a SA annual rate of +2.7% in August.
On the other hand, consumer credit showed a sharp growth in August 2023. The latest release shows Consumer Loans expanding at a 5.1% annualized rate primarily driven by credit card balances.
Deposits in the banking system fell sharply in August at a SA annualized rate of minus 2.7%. Deposits have held up more or less at an unchanged level since the past year. This is also consistent with other data releases – specifically the drop in the RRP balances and the maintenance of bank reserves at an unchanged level in the Fed balance sheet data (H.4.1). The latest data for August might primarily be on account of the large treasury issuances.

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

18th Aug 2023

While a rapid decline in credit creation is yet to be seen, credit creation is undoubtedly slowing. For instance, overall Bank credit is contracting at an annualized rate of 2.9% based on June 2023 numbers. A large part of the contraction is attributable to the securities portfolio of banks. But lending is slowing as well. Loans and Leases contracted at a SA annual rate of 1.7% in Jun 2023. The latest data shows a mild recovery in July in Bank Lending. Loans and Leases in Bank Credit grew at an annualized rate of 0.9% in July 2023.
The decline in Commercial and Industrial loans has also been noticeable in 2023. Based on the latest data, C&I loans fell at an annualized rate of -2.1% in July (which was better than the minus 4.6% rate in June)
Commercial real estate lending slowed to a SA annual rate of +1.1% in July. The slowdown in CRE Lending has been the most noticeable and it is in line with the general malaise we have seen in the CRE space.
Likewise, consumer credit growth slowed to 0.6% annualized rate in July from a 7 to 10% growth that we had seen in late 2022 and early 2024. It is reasonable to expect a slow down in discretionary consumption in the US on the back of lower consumer borrowing.
On the other hand, deposits in the banking system grew at a SA annualized rate of 2.9% in June and 0.7% in July. Deposits have held up more or less at an unchanged level. This is also consistent with other data releases – specifically the drop in the RRP balances and the maintenance of bank reserves at an unchanged level in the Fed balance sheet data (H.4.1)

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

21st Jul 2023

The latest H.8 release of July 21st provides further clarity on the trends in loans and deposits in the banking industry. While a rapid decline in credit creation is yet to be seen, credit creation is undoubtedly slowing. For instance, overall Bank credit is contracting at an annualized rate of 2.3% based on 1H 2023 numbers. A large part of the contraction is attributable to the securities portfolio of banks. But lending is slowing as well. Loans and Leases contracted at a SA annual rate of 1.6% in Jun 2023.
The decline in Commercial and Industrial loans is accelerating. C&I loans fell at an annualized rate of -3.9% in June
Commercial real estate lending slowed to a SA annual rate of +3.5% in June (from +6.2% in May). Residential Real Estate loans fell to a SA annualized rate of -10.2% in June. These are big changes and the downstream effects are yet to be felt.
Likewise, consumer credit growth slowed to 3.3% annualized rate in June from 6.4% in May.
On the other hand, deposits in the banking system grew at a SA annualized rate of 3% in June. Deposits in the first 2 weeks of July have also held up more or less at an unchanged level. This is also consistent with other data releases – specifically the drop in the RRP balances and the maintenance of bank reserves at an unchanged level in the Fed balance sheet data (H.4.1)

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

9th Jun 2023

The latest H8 release of June 9th was key since it released annualized growth rates for the month of May for the first time. While a rapid decline in credit creation is yet to be seen, the latest release gives a slightly clearer picture of the underlying trends. The decline in Commercial and Industrial loans is accelerating. C&I loans fell at an annualized rate of 4.6% in May (accelerating further from -3.3% in April).
However, the strength in real estate lending continued. Residential Real Estate loans grew at a SA annualized rate of 6.4% and Commercial Real Estate Loans grew at a SA annualized rate of 7.9%. Those are big figures and the slowdown in real estate credit is still not evident in data.
Likewise, consumer credit is growing at a significant pace at well (4.5%). With the recent uptick in delinquency rates in auto loans and credit cards, this growth in consumer credit seems far from healthy!
Similar to last week, deposits at banks also increased on both a SA and NSA basis. This number will be absolutely key to track over the next 3 months as the US Treasury ramps up its T Bill issuance and sucks liquidity out of the banking system.

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

2nd Jun 2023

The latest Fed H8 release showed deposits at banks increased a substantial $86bn on a SA basis. Deposits at banks had been in a general declining trend since the time the Fed started increasing interest rates. The deposit decline accelerated in the immediate aftermath of the SVB and SB banking episodes. Irrespective of the liquidity impact of the ongoing debt ceiling issue, it is noteworthy that deposits increased by a large $86bn. However, the non seasonally adjusted data showed deposits fell $31bn in the latest week.
Everyone is expecting credit to slowdown. However, there isnt much of evidence yet of a credit crunch. In general, Commercial and Industrial Loans have been declining – which can be interpreted to mean lower credit creation in the broader industry. However, real estate loans have in fact grown substantially since the start of the year. Commercial Real Estate lending has yet to show meaningful signs of slowdown – despite the widely telegraphed fears of a meltdown in the commercial real estate space. Moreover, Residential Real Estate loans have continued to grow since the start of the year.
On the other hand, the pace of increase in the banks portfolio of securities (primarily US treasuries and agency mortgage backed securities) has gradually fallen since the highs of 2021/2022. The latest H.8 release shows the aggregate securities in bank credit decreasing at an annualized rate of minus 12%. With interest rates rising sharply and the recent banking liquidity panics, banks are choosing to hold more liquid reserves and cash on hand to meet any deposit outflow requirements.

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

5th May 2023

After having fallen ~$85bn in the week ended 12th April and having increased a small $12bn in the week ended 19th April, Deposits at banks in the week ended 26th Apr were back down again – by a relatively small $12bn. Deposits fell ~$106bn on a not seasonally adjusted basis – and that can be attributed to the tax payments that happen in April. Most of the drop was recorded at Foreign banks. Deposits grew at Domestic Banks – both Large and Small.
Everyone is expecting credit to slowdown. Once again, there wasn’t much of evidence in this week’s report. But then again this credit slowdown is a slow drag and it is reasonable to expect this to occur over several month. Loans and Leases increased by sizeable $40bn in the week ending 26 Apr. Loans and Leases are still growing at an annualized rate of 5.7% according to the latest data. This number is expected to substantially come down.
On the other hand, the pace of increase in the banks portfolio of securities (primarily US treasuries and agency mortgage backed securities) has gradually fallen since the highs of 2021/2022. The latest H.8 release shows the aggregate securities in bank credit decreasing at an annualized rate of minus 24%. With interest rates rising sharply and the recent banking liquidity panics, banks are choosing to hold more liquid reserves and cash on hand to meet any deposit outflow requirements. Treasury and MBS securities in banks portfolios were steady on a SA basis in the week ending 26 Apr.

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

28th Apr 2023

After having fallen ~$75bn in the week before, Deposits at banks in the week ended 19th Apr increased $22bn on a seasonally adjusted basis. Deposits fell ~$140bn on a not seasonally adjusted basis – and that can be attributed to the tax payments that happen in April. The deposit increase on a SA basis was mostly at large banks, while deposits at small banks remained flat.
Everyone is expecting credit to slowdown. There wasnt much of evidence in this week’s report. But then again this credit slowdown is a slow drag and it is reasonable to expect this to occur over several month. Loans and Leases increased by $15bn in the week ending 19 Apr. Loans and Leases are still growing at an annualized rate of 5.7% according to the latest data. This number is expected to substantially come down.
On the other hand, the pace of increase in the banks portfolio of securities (primarily US treasuries and agency mortgage backed securities) has gradually fallen since the highs of 2021/2022. The latest H.8 release shows the aggregate securities in bank credit decreasing at an annualized rate of minus 24%. With interest rates rising sharply and the recent banking liquidity panics, banks are choosing to hold more liquid reserves and cash on hand to meet any deposit outflow requirements. Treasury and MBS securities in banks portfolios were steady on a SA basis in the week ending 19 Apr.

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

21st Apr 2023

Deposits fell by ~$75bn at banks in the week ended 12th Apr. The drop was seen across both large banks (~$45bn) and small banks (~$5bn). Cumulatively since Dec 2022, banks have lost ~$600bn of deposits!
2022 had been a blockbuster year for loan creation by US banks. Almost $1.3bn of net new loans and leases were added in the commercial banking system. In contrast, outstanding loans and leases have increased only ~$100bn from ~$12Tn at end 2022 to ~$12.1Tn by Mar 2023. The annualized rate of increase in loans and leases thus far in 2023 has been about 5% – in contrast to the 12% seen in 2022. The pace of loan creation will be keenly observed by market participants via this H.8 release. The Fed expects tighter lending conditions as a fallout of the SVB/SB bankruptcy episodes and is relying on tighter lending conditions to help alleviate the inflation problem. Any continued increase in bank lending will only complicate the problem further.
Similarly the pace of increase in the banks portfolio of securities (primarily US treasuries and agency mortgage backed securities) has also gradually fallen since the highs of 2021/2022. The latest H.8 release shows the aggregate securities in bank credit decreasing at an annualized rate of minus 24%. With interest rates rising sharply and the recent banking liquidity panics, banks are choosing to hold more liquid reserves and cash on hand to meet any deposit outflow requirements.

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

Detailed information about bank balance sheets and deposit and loan data are generally obtained at the end of each quarter when bank declare their financial results. However, the H.8 release by the US Federal Reserve provide a concurrent, more timely information about the aggregate balance sheet and loan and deposit data for all commercial banks in the US. The release also includes separate balance sheet aggregations for several bank groups: domestically chartered commercial banks; large domestically chartered commercial banks; small domestically chartered commercial banks; and foreign-related institutions in the US. Published weekly, the release is typically available to the public by 4:15 p.m. each Friday.

Normally the H.8, which provides aggregate balance sheet and flow information about the US banking system, does not have to be tracked on a week to week basis. However, it becomes critical to follow this data during periods of financial stress – like the one experienced in March 2023 with the failure of SVB and Signature Bank. The data provides insights into various aspects like deposit inflows or outflows from the aggregate banking system, deposit flows broken down by large and small banks, loan creation in the aggregate banking system, etc

H.8 – Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the US