US Macro Updates

Key takeaway: Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system remains a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. The macro backdrop has shifted meaningfully since the start of the year — tariff-driven uncertainty weighed on sentiment in Q1 and early Q2, yet the banking data has remained surprisingly resilient. The latest H.8 release through end-May 2026 shows that credit growth, while moderating somewhat from the exceptional pace of Q1 2026, continues to run at a healthy clip. The US banking system is still in expansion mode.

• Overall bank credit grew at an annualized rate of 7.5% in Q1 2026, and has continued to expand into Q2, with April and May printing 5.7% and 5.0% respectively. The moderation from the Q1 pace is not surprising given the exceptionally strong January and February readings, and the underlying trend remains well above the 4.0% seen for full-year 2024. Total bank credit now stands at $19.55 trillion as of end-May 2026.
• Loans and leases continued their impressive run, growing at an annualized rate of 8.7% in Q1 2026, with April and May recording 9.5% and 5.7% respectively. The standout remains Commercial and Industrial lending, which surged at a 12.8% annualized rate in Q1 and maintained strong momentum in April and May at 18.3% and 9.6% respectively. C&I loan balances have now crossed $2.9 trillion. This sustained strength in business borrowing is notable and suggests that corporate America has not meaningfully pulled back on credit demand despite tariff uncertainty — though some of the Q1 surge may reflect precautionary front-loading.
• Commercial real estate, long a source of concern, is showing a genuine pickup. CRE loans grew at an annualized rate of 2.6% in Q1 2026 and accelerated to 4.2% in April and 6.5% in May — the strongest monthly readings in some time. Total CRE balances now stand at $3.10 trillion. It remains early days, but this sequential acceleration warrants attention as a potential positive turning point for a sector that has been under pressure for several years.
• Consumer loans continued to grow steadily, at an annualized rate of 5.4% in Q1 and 9.3% and 2.6% in April and May respectively. Credit card balances rose above $1.09 trillion in April and have held at that level. Other consumer loans, including auto, also recorded solid growth. The ongoing strength in consumer credit, set against a backdrop of elevated rates and rising delinquency chatter, remains a key variable to monitor.
• Deposits grew at an annualized rate of 6.1% in Q1 2026 and have accelerated further into Q2, with April and May printing 8.9% and 12.6% respectively. Total deposits now stand at $19.29 trillion. The strong deposit growth validates the credit expansion and reflects a combination of robust economic activity and still-supportive fiscal conditions. The Fed’s exit from QT continues to provide a liquidity tailwind.

Stepping back, the banking data continues to defy the skeptics. Despite tariff headwinds, policy uncertainty, and elevated rates, credit creation has remained robust through the first five months of 2026. The key question is whether this momentum can be sustained into H2 2026. The CRE pickup and the still-strong C&I numbers are encouraging, but a softening in consumer credit growth and any deterioration in deposit trends would be early warning signals worth watching closely.

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

 

10th Apr 2026

Key takeaway: Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system remains a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. Bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. The current backdrop is a complicated one — tariff uncertainty under the new administration is creating significant noise around the growth outlook, and concerns are growing about whether the strong credit momentum of 2025 can be sustained into 2026. The latest H.8 release through end-March 2026 suggests the answer, at least for now, is a resounding yes.

– Overall Bank credit accelerated sharply in Q1 2026, growing at an annualized rate of 7.4% — the strongest quarterly growth rate seen in several years. January and February were particularly strong at 9.7% and 10.3% respectively, with March moderating somewhat to 7.0%. This is a meaningful step up from the already solid 4.7% growth seen in Q4 2025, and continues the trend of sequential acceleration that has been building since mid-2025.

– Loans and leases, the most economically significant component, grew at an annualized rate of 8.6% in Q1 2026 — again, the strongest quarterly reading in recent memory. The standout performer was Commercial and Industrial (C&I) lending, which surged at an annualized rate of 12.8% in Q1 2026, with February recording a particularly striking 22.1%. This is a notable shift from the sluggishness in C&I loans seen in 2023 and early 2024, and suggests businesses are actively drawing on credit lines — potentially front-loading borrowing ahead of anticipated tariff-related cost increases.

– Commercial real estate lending continued its gradual recovery, growing at 2.6% in Q1 2026 after 3.1% in Q4 2025. While still modest relative to the 2022 boom, the sequential pickup is encouraging and suggests the worst of the CRE stress may be behind us, at least from a credit flow perspective. CRE balances now stand at $3.08 trillion.

– Consumer loans grew at a robust annualized rate of 5.2% in Q1 2026, with both credit cards (4.8%) and other consumer loans (5.6%) contributing. Total consumer loan balances stand at $1.887 trillion, with credit card balances at $1.078 trillion — well above the $1 trillion mark first crossed in 2024. The continued strength in consumer borrowing reflects resilient household spending, though it warrants monitoring alongside delinquency data.

– Deposits grew strongly in Q1 2026 at an annualized rate of 6.1%, with January and February each printing around 9.8%. Total deposits reached $18.95 trillion as of end-March. The strong deposit growth is consistent with the robust lending activity — new credit creates new deposits — and is further supported by the Fed having ended QT and the ongoing drawdown of the Treasury General Account.

*A note of caution: the acceleration in C&I loans in particular bears watching. It may reflect genuine business confidence, or it could reflect precautionary borrowing in anticipation of tariff-driven supply chain disruptions and cost increases. Either way, if macro uncertainty deepens and growth slows, this credit impulse could quickly reverse. For now though, the banking system data continues to paint a picture of a remarkably resilient US economy.*

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

27th Feb 2026

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. Bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. The stock market is at all time highs and valuations look stretched. There are fears of an AI stocks led bubble. Yet, the economy is performing well as evidenced by the GDP growth rate and robust personal consumption. In this backdrop, it is key to note that bank lending has been fairly muted over the last few years. It is only in the past 12-18 months, that we have started seeing a spurt in credit creation. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 was a lot more muted. However, credit growth in 2024 turned out to be fairly robust. And contrary to expectations, credit growth has been significantly higher in 2025 as well.   

• Overall Bank credit increased at an annualized rate of 4.0% in 2024 and 5.3% in 2025. After having declined through most of 2022 and 2023 during the phase of rising rates, Banks started loading treasuries once again on their balance sheets with the topping out of the rate hike cycle. 2025 is turning to be an interesting year on this front. Many banks are still sitting on legacy USTs and MBS purchased during 2020 and 2021. With treasury yields continuing in the above 4% region through all of 2025, Banks once again are deploying surplus cash substantially into higher yielding USTs and MBS. Annualized growth rate in Investment in Treasury securities recorded 4.9% in 2025. Bank Lending, which remained anaemic through most of 2023, was resilient in 2024 as well as 2025. Overall Loans and Leases increased at an annualized rate of 2.8% in 2024 and at a rate of 5.4% in 2025.   
• Amongst the various lending categories, the decline in Commercial and Industrial loans had been noticeable in 2023. After an anaemic first half, C&I loan activity picked up in 2H 2024. C&I loans an annualized growth rate of 0.9% in 2024. However, similar to overall loans and leases, C&I Loans recorded strong growth rates in 2025 as well, growing at 4.3% for the year.       
• Commercial real estate, on the other hand, had demonstrated a sharp increase in lending in 1H 2024 despite all the ongoing concerns in the CRE space. Growth rates in CRE loans then moderated in 2H 2024. CRE loans increased 1.7% in 2024 overall. Growth in CRE loans has since been modest in 2025, growing at a rate of 1.6% in the full year.   
• Consumer credit had seen some sharp growth in 2024 with credit card debt crossing the $1.0 trillion mark. Consumer Loans increased at an annualized rate 1.9% in 2024. A large portion of that growth was driven by Credit card growth which increased 4.7% in 2024 and Other Consumer loans fell 1.5%. Consumer Loans once again increased at a robust rate of 3.8% in 2025, once again driven by credit cards. However, other consumer loans also recorded a strong growth rate in 2025 of 4.5%.  
• Deposits in the banking system increased at an annualized rate of 2.7% in 2024 after having declined 2.7% in 2023. The sharp growth in deposits continued in 2025 growing at a rate of 3.8% in the full year. Also, deposits have held up well due to the large fiscal spend by the government and draining of liquidity from the RRP facility. Robust bank lending activity and strong economic growth have further contributed to a strong growth in deposits.   

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

14th Nov 2025

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. Bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. The stock market is at all time highs and valuations look stretched. There are fears of an AI stocks led bubble. Yet, the economy is performing well as evidenced by the GDP growth rate. In this backdrop, it is key to note that bank lending has been fairly muted over the last few years. It is only in the past 12-18 months, that we have started seeing a spurt in credit creation. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 was a lot more muted. However, credit growth in 2024 turned out to be fairly robust. And contrary to expectations, credit growth has been significantly higher in 2025 as well.   

• Overall Bank credit increased at an annualized rate of 4.0% in 2024. The annualized growth rate in Q1 2025 was 3.2%, Q2 was 6.9% and Q3 was 5.7%. Similarly, annualized bank credit growth rate in October has also been strong at 4.9%. After having declined through most of 2022 and 2023 during the phase of rising rates, Banks started loading treasuries once again on their balance sheets with the topping out of the rate hike cycle. 2025 is turning to be an interesting year on this front. Many banks are still sitting on legacy USTs and MBS purchased during 2020 and 2021. With treasury yields continuing in the above 4% region through first half 2025, Banks once again are deploying surplus cash substantially into higher yielding USTs and MBS. Annualized growth rate in Investment in Treasury securities recorded 2.3%, 11.6% and 7.2% in Q1, Q2 and Q3 respectively. Bank Lending, which remained anaemic through most of 2023, was still resilient in 2024. Overall Loans and Leases increased at an annualized rate of 2.8% in 2024. Bank Lending also grew at a solid annualized rate of 4.1%, 5.8% and 5.3% in Q1, Q2 and Q3 2025.     
• Amongst the various lending categories, the decline in Commercial and Industrial loans had been noticeable in 2023. After an anaemic first half, C&I loan activity picked up in 2H 2024. C&I loans an annualized growth rate of 0.8% in 2024. Similar to overall loans and leases, C&I Loans recorded strong growth rates in 2025 as well, growing at 0.8%, 5.5% and 7.8% in Q1, Q2 and Q3 2025.       
• Commercial real estate, on the other hand, had demonstrated a sharp increase in lending in 1H 2024 despite all the ongoing concerns in the CRE space. Growth rates in CRE loans then moderated in 2H 2024. CRE loans increased 1.7% in 2024 overall. Growth in CRE loans has since been modest in 2025, growing at an annualized rate of 0.2% , 0.9% and 1.9% in Q1, Q2 and Q3 2025.   
• Consumer credit had seen some sharp growth in 2024 with credit card debt crossing the $1.0 trillion mark. Consumer Loans increased at an annualized rate 1.9% in 2024. A large portion of that growth was driven by Credit card growth which increased 4.7% in 2024 and Other Consumer loans fell 1.5%. Consumer Loans once again increased at robust rates of 3.3% in Q1 2025, 4.1% in Q2 2025 and 3.0% in Q3 2025, once again driven by credit cards. However, other consumer loans also recorded strong growth rates in Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 3.5%, 5.1% and 4.1% respectively.  
• Deposits in the banking system increased at an annualized rate of 2.7% in 2024 after having declined 2.7% in 2023. Deposit growth was also solid at 3.2%, 4.5% and 4.3% in Q1, Q2 and Q3 2025, respectively. The sharp growth rates in deposits also validate sharp growth in credit seen in 2025. Also, deposits have held up well due to the large fiscal spend by the government and draining of liquidity from the RRP facility. Robust bank lending activity and strong economic growth have further contributed to a strong growth in deposits through the whole of 2024 and continuing into 2025.  

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

12th Sep 2025

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. Bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. The new administration is focused on reducing government spending and the fiscal deficit. In this backdrop, credit creation by banks takes on even further importance in order to keep the economy growing. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 was a lot more muted. However, credit growth in 2024 turned out to be fairly robust. And contrary to expectations, credit growth has been significantly higher so far in 2025.   

• Overall Bank credit increased at an annualized rate of 3.8% in 2024. The annualized growth rate in Q1 2025 was 2.5% and 7.7% in Q2 20205. Similarly, annualized bank credit growth rate in July and August has also been strong at 6.4% and 5.9%. After having declined through most of 2022 and 2023 during the phase of rising rates, Banks started loading treasuries once again on their balance sheets with the topping out of the rate hike cycle. 2025 is turning to be an interesting year on this front. Many banks are still sitting on legacy USTs and MBS purchased during 2020 and 2021. With treasury yields continuing in the above 4% region through first half 2025, Banks once again are deploying surplus cash substantially into higher yielding USTs and MBS. Annualized growth rate in Investment in Treasury securities recorded 0.7% and 12.7% in Q1 and Q2 respectively. That strong growth has continued into Q3 as well. Bank Lending, which remained anaemic through most of 2023, was still resilient in 2024. Overall Loans and Leases increased at an annualized rate of 2.6% in 2024. Bank Lending also grew at a solid annualized rate of 3.7% in Q1 2025 and 6.4% in Q2 2025.     
• Amongst the various lending categories, the decline in Commercial and Industrial loans had been noticeable in 2023. After an anemic first half, C&I loan activity picked up in 2H 2024. C&I loans an annualized growth rate of 0.8% in 2024. Similar to overall loans and leases, C&I Loans recorded strong growth rates in 2025 as well. While C&I loans declined 0.4% in Q1 2025, they grew 5.6% in Q2 2025 and have recorded annualized growth rates of 13.3% and 5.1% in July and August 2025.      
• Commercial real estate, on the other hand, had demonstrated a sharp increase in lending in 1H 2024 despite all the ongoing concerns in the CRE space. Growth rates in CRE loans then moderated in 2H 2024. CRE loans increased at an annualized rate of 0.7% and 1.1% in Q1 and Q2 2025. Growth in CRE loans remains muted in 2025 and lower than the sharp growth seen in 1H 2024.  
• Consumer credit had seen some sharp growth in 2024 with credit card debt crossing the $1.0 trillion mark. Consumer Loans increased at an annualized rate 2.0% in 2024. A large portion of that growth was driven by Credit card growth which increased 4.7% in 2024 and Other Consumer loans fell 1.2%. Consumer Loans once again increased at robust rates of 4.1% in Q1 2025 and 4.3% in Q2 2025, once again driven by credit cards. However, other consumer loans also recorded strong growth rates in Q1 and Q2 of 3.8% and 5.4% respectively. This overall trend of strong growth in consumer loans seems to be continuing into Q3 as well. 
• Deposits in the banking system increased at an annualized rate of 2.8% in 2024 after having declined 2.7% in 2023. Deposit growth was also solid at 2.9% and 4.9% in Q1 and Q2 2025, respectively. The sharp growth rates in deposits also validate sharp growth in credit seen in 2025. Also, deposits have held up well due to the large fiscal spend by the government and draining of liquidity from the RRP facility. Robust bank lending activity and strong economic growth have further contributed to a strong growth in deposits through the whole of 2024 and continuing into 2025.  

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

25th Apr 2025

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. Bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. The new administration is focused on reducing government spending and the fiscal deficit. In this backdrop, credit creation by banks takes on even further importance in order to keep the economy growing. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 was a lot more muted. However, credit growth in 2024 turned out to be fairly robust. Similarly, 2025 has started on a very positive note in bank lending.   

• Overall Bank credit increased at an annualized rate of 3.7%, 3.0%, 4.8% and 3.4% in the Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 2024. The annualized growth rate in January was a muted 0.4%. However, the annualized growth rate in February and March has been a strong 4.3% and 6.5%. After having declined through most of 2022 and 2023 during the phase of rising rates, Banks started loading treasuries once again on their balance sheets with the topping out of the rate hike cycle. 2025 is positioned to be an interesting year on this front. Many banks are still sitting on legacy USTs and MBS purchased during 2020 and 2021. Should rates go up further, we will see Banks once again deploy surplus cash substantially into higher yielding USTs and MBS. On the other hand, if the economy deteriorates swiftly, Banks might choose to offload the lower yielding treasuries, crystallize the losses and redeploy into newer USTs. Bank Lending, which remained anaemic through most of 2023, was very resilient in 2024. Overall Loans and Leases increased at an annualized rate of 2.4%, 2.8%, 2.4% and 3.0% in Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 2024. Bank Lending also grew at a solid annualized rate of 4.5% in February and 5.6% in March.     
• Amongst the various lending categories, the decline in Commercial and Industrial loans had been noticeable in 2023. C&I recorded an annualized growth rate of -1.5% in the first quarter and +0.3% in the second quarter and 1.6% in the third quarter. However, C&I loan activity picked up even further in Q4 with an annualized growth rate of 2.7%. January and February have been relatively quieter on C&I with annualized rates of -3.6% and 1.2% respectively. Similarly, March was muted at 0.6% as well.    
• Commercial real estate, on the other hand, demonstrated a sharp increase in lending in 1H 2024 despite all the ongoing concerns in the CRE space. CRE loans increased at an annualized rate of 3.7% and 2.6% in Q1 and Q2. However, since then the rate of growth declined to 0.4% and 0.5% in Q3 and Q4 respectively. However, 2025 has once again started on a strong note with annualized growth rates of 1.6% and 3.0% in January and February respectively, though March has been much softer at 0.1% growth.   
• Consumer credit had seen some sharp growth in 2024 with credit card debt crossing the $1.0 trillion mark. Consumer Loans increased at an annualized rate 3.6%, 0.8%, 0.9% and 2.6% in Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4. Consumer Loans once again increased at robust rates of 4.4% and 2.9% and 4.0% in January, February and March respectively. Credit cards and other revolving loans increased at 5.6% and 3.8% and 2.9% in January, February and March respectively.   
• Deposits in the banking system increased at an annualized rate of 2.8%, 2.3%, 2.3% and 3.5% in Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4. In general, deposits have held up well as the large fiscal spend by the government continues and the Treasury continues to drain liquidity from the RRP facility. Robust bank lending activity and strong economic growth have further contributed to a strong growth in deposits through the whole of 2024. Deposits grew at a rate of 6.2%, 0.8% and 6.8% in January, February and March. The Fed has effectively ended QT starting April 2025. The TGA is also being run down due to the debt ceiling limit. Both of these factors are expected to contributed to further deposit growth in 1H 2025. 

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

21st Mar 2025

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. Bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. The new administration is focused on reducing government spending and the fiscal deficit. In this backdrop, credit creation by banks takes on even further importance in order to keep the economy growing. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 was a lot more muted. However, credit growth in 2024 turned out to be fairly robust. Similarly, 2025 has started on a very positive note in bank lending.   

• Overall Bank credit increased at an annualized rate of 3.8%, 3.1%, 4.7% and 3.5% in the Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 2024. The annualized growth rate in January was a muted 0.6%. However, the annualized growth rate in February has been a strong 4.4%. After having declined through most of 2022 and 2023 during the phase of rising rates, Banks started loading treasuries once again on their balance sheets with the topping out of the rate hike cycle. 2025 is positioned to be an interesting year on this front. Many banks are still sitting on legacy USTs and MBS purchased during 2020 and 2021. Should rates go up further, we will see Banks once again deploy surplus cash substantially into higher yielding USTs and MBS. On the other hand, if the economy deteriorates swiftly, Banks might choose to offload the lower yielding treasuries, crystallize the losses and redeploy into newer USTs. Bank Lending, which remained anaemic through most of 2023, was very resilient in 2024. Overall Loans and Leases increased at an annualized rate of 2.5%, 2.8%, 2.3% and 3.1% in Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 2024. Bank Lending also grew at a solid annualized rate of 4.5% in February.     
• Amongst the various lending categories, the decline in Commercial and Industrial loans had been noticeable in 2023. C&I recorded an annualized growth rate of -1.4% in the first quarter and +0.2% in the second quarter and 1.6% in the third quarter. However, C&I loan activity picked up even further in Q4 with an annualized growth rate of 2.9%. January and February have been relatively quieter on C&I with annualized rates of -3.3% and 1.0% respectively.    
• Commercial real estate, on the other hand, demonstrated a sharp increase in lending in 1H 2024 despite all the ongoing concerns in the CRE space. CRE loans increased at an annualized rate of 3.7% and 2.6% in Q1 and Q2. However, since then the rate of growth declined to 0.3% and 0.5% in Q3 and Q4 respectively. However, 2025 has once again started on a strong note with annualized growth rates of 1.7% and 2.9% in January and February respectively.    
• Consumer credit had seen some sharp growth in 2024 with credit card debt crossing the $1.0 trillion mark. Consumer Loans increased at an annualized rate 3.9%, 1.0%, 0.8% and 3.0% in Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4. Consumer Loans once again increased at robust rates of 4.8% and 2.9% in January and February respectively. Credit cards and other revolving loans increased at 6.2% and 3.8% in January and February.   
• Deposits in the banking system increased at an annualized rate of 2.8%, 2.2%, 2.4% and 3.4% in Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4. In general, deposits have held up well as the large fiscal spend by the government continues and the Treasury continues to drain liquidity from the RRP facility. Robust bank lending activity and strong economic growth have further contributed to a strong growth in deposits through the whole of 2024. Deposits grew at a rate of 6.2% and 0.9% in January and February. The Fed has effectively ended QT starting April 2025. The TGA is also being run down due to the debt ceiling limit. Both of these factors are expected to contributed to further deposit growth in 1H 2025. 

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

7th Feb 2025

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the banking panics of SVB, SB and FRC of early last year faded completely from memory, market participants are now less worried about tracking deposit outflow data. The narrative in the new year had changed and the focus is on credit growth once again. Bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 was a lot more muted. However, credit growth in 2024 has been fairly robust.   

• Overall Bank credit increased at an annualized rate of 3.8%, 3.1%, 4.7% and 3.5% in the Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 2024. After having declined through most of 2022 and 2023 during the phase of rising rates, Banks started loading treasuries once again on their balance sheets with the topping out of the rate hike cycle. On the other hand Bank Lending, which remained anaemic through most of 2023, was very resilient in 2024. Overall Loans and Leases increased at an annualized rate of 2.5%, 2.8%, 2.3% and 3.1% in Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 2024.     
• Amongst the various lending categories, the decline in Commercial and Industrial loans had been noticeable in 2023. C&I recorded an annualized growth rate of -1.4% in the first quarter and +0.2% in the second quarter and 1.6% in the third quarter. However, C&I loan activity picked up even further in Q4 with an annualized growth rate of 2.9%.   
• Commercial real estate, on the other hand, demonstrated a sharp increase in lending in 1H 2024 despite all the ongoing concerns in the CRE space. CRE loans increased at an annualized rate of 3.7% and 2.6% in Q1 and Q2. However, since then the rate of growth has declined to 0.3% and 0.6% in Q3 and Q4 respectively.   
• Consumer credit had seen some sharp growth in 2024 with credit card debt crossing the $1.0 trillion mark. Consumer Loans increased at an annualized rate 3.9%, 1.0%, 0.8% and 3.2% in Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4.   
• Deposits in the banking system increased at an annualized rate of 2.8%, 2.2%, 2.4% and 3.4% in Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4. In general, deposits have held up well as the large fiscal spend by the government continues and the Treasury continues to drain liquidity from the RRP facility. Robust bank lending activity and strong economic growth have further contributed to a strong growth in deposits through the whole of 2024. 

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

15th Nov 2024

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the banking panics of SVB, SB and FRC of early last year faded completely from memory, market participants are now less worried about tracking deposit outflow data. The narrative in the new year had changed and the focus is on credit growth once again. Bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 was a lot more muted. However, credit growth in 2024 has been fairly robust.   

• Overall Bank credit increased at an annualized rate of 3.8%, 3.1% and 4.7% in the Q1, Q2 and Q3 2024. After having declined through most of 2022 and 2023 during the phase of rising rates, Banks started loading treasuries once again on their balance sheets with the topping out of the rate hike cycle. On the other hand Lending, which remained anaemic through most of 2023, has been very resilient in 2024. Overall Loans and Leases increased at an annualized rate of 2.5%, 2.8% and 2.3% in Q1, Q2 and Q3 2024. Loan growth has been robust in October as well at 3.8%.    
• Amongst the various lending categories, the decline in Commercial and Industrial loans had been noticeable in 2023. The picture on C&I loan growth has been a mixed bag in 2024. C&I recorded an annualized growth rate of -1.3% in the first quarter and +0.4% in the second quarter and 1.8% in the third quarter. However, generally C&I loans have been growing once again with the latest month of October showing an annualized growth of 3.3%.  
• Commercial real estate, on the other hand, continues to demonstrate a sharp increase in lending despite all the ongoing concerns in the CRE space. CRE loans increased at an annualized rate of 3.7% , 2.5% and 0.2% in Q1, Q2 and Q3. The latest report shows CRE loans grew at an annualized 2.8% in October 2024.  
• Consumer credit had seen some sharp growth in recent months with credit card debt crossing the $1.0 trillion mark. Consumer Loans increased at an annualized rate 3.9%, 1.0% and 1.0% in Q1, Q2 and Q3. Consumer loans increased at an annualized pace of 3.5% in October.  
• Deposits in the banking system increased at an annualized rate of 2.8%, 2.2% and 2.4% in Q1, Q2 and Q3. In general, deposits have held up well as the large fiscal spend by the government continues and the Treasury continues to drain liquidity from the RRP facility.  

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

20th Sep 2024

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the banking panics of SVB, SB and FRC of early last year faded completely from memory, market participants are now less worried about tracking deposit outflow data. The narrative in the new year has now changed and the focus is on credit growth once again. Bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 was a lot more muted. However, credit growth in 2024 has been fairly robust.   

• Overall Bank credit increased at an annualized rate of 3.7% and 3.0% in the Q1 and Q2 2024. After having declined through most of 2022 and 2023 during the phase of rising rates, Banks started loading treasuries once again on their balance sheets with the topping out of the rate hike cycle. On the other hand Lending, which remained anaemic through most of 2023, has been very resilient in 2024. Overall Loans and Leases increased at an annualized rate of 2.4% and 2.8% in Q1 and Q2 2024. Loan growth has been robust in July and August as well at 2.1% and 2.0% respectively.    
• Amongst the various lending categories, the decline in Commercial and Industrial loans had been noticeable in 2023. The picture on C&I loan growth has been a mixed bag in 2024. C&I recorded an annualized growth rate of -1.4% in the first quarter and +0.9% in the second quarter. However, C&I loan growth has been strong in the past few months with the August annualized rate being 2.2%. 
• Commercial real estate, on the other hand, continues to demonstrate a sharp increase in lending despite all the ongoing concerns in the CRE space. CRE loans increased at an annualized rate of 3.9% in the first quarter and 2.7% in the second quarter. Latest data however shows a flat 0% in August 2024.  
• Consumer credit had seen some sharp growth in recent months with credit card debt crossing the $1.0 trillion mark. Consumer Loans increased at an annualized rate 3.6% in Q1 and 1.6% in Q2. Consumer loans increased at an annualized pace of 2.4% in August.  
• Deposits in the banking system increased at an annualized rate of 2.8% in Q1 and 1.9% in Q2. In general, deposits have held up well as the large fiscal spend by the government continues and the Treasury continues to drain liquidity from the RRP facility.  

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

2nd Aug 2024

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the banking panics of SVB, SB and FRC of early last year faded completely from memory, market participants are now less worried about tracking deposit outflow data. The narrative in the new year has now changed and the focus is on credit growth once again. Bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 was a lot more muted. However, credit growth in 2024 has been fairly robust.   

• Overall Bank credit either slowed down or contracted for most of 2023. A large part of the contraction was attributable to the securities portfolio of banks which even in Q4 2023 contracted at an annualized rate of 7%. Even Lending was significantly lower in 2023 compared to 2022. However, we saw some bounce back in lending levels towards the end of 2023. As per latest data in the H.8 release of 2nd Aug 2024, Bank Credit declined at a SA annual rate of 1.5% in April after having recorded 3.6% in January, 3.7% in February and 8.3% in March 2024. Bank’s Securities portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 14%. However, on the other hand, loans and leases continue to demonstrate a decent rate of growth in 2024 – rising at an annualized rate of 2.8% in June 2024.   
• Amongst the various lending categories, the decline in Commercial and Industrial loans had been noticeable in 2023. The picture on C&I loan growth has been a mixed bag in 2024. C&I recorded an annualized growth rate of -1.4% in the first quarter and +1.0% in the second quarter.  
• Commercial real estate, on the other hand, continues to demonstrate a sharp increase in lending despite all the ongoing concerns in the CRE space. CRE loans increased at an annualized rate of 3.9% in the first quarter and 2.6% in the second quarter. Latest data shows an annualized rate of -2.4% in June 2024.  
• Consumer credit had seen some sharp growth in recent months with credit card debt crossing the $1.0 trillion mark. Consumer Loans increased at an annualized rate 3.6% in Q1 and 1.4% in Q2. Consumer loans decreased at an annualized pace of 0.5% in June.  
• Deposits in the banking system increased at an annualized rate of 2.8% in Q1 and 1.9% in Q2. In general, deposits have held up well as the large fiscal spend by the government continues and the Treasury continues to drain liquidity from the RRP facility.  

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

31st May 2024

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the banking panics of SVB, SB and FRC of early last year faded completely from memory, market participants are now less worried about tracking deposit outflow data. The narrative in the new year has now changed and the focus is on credit growth once again. Bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 was a lot more muted. However, 2024 seems to have started on a positive note.   

• Overall Bank credit either slowed down or contracted for most of 2023. A large part of the contraction was attributable to the securities portfolio of banks which even in Q4 2023 contracted at an annualized rate of 7%. Even Lending was significantly lower in 2023 compared to 2022. However, we saw some bounce back in lending levels towards the end of 2023. As per latest data in the H.8 release of 31st May 2024, Bank Credit declined at a SA annual rate of 1.5% in April after having recorded 3.6% in January, 3.7% in February and 8.3% in March 2024. Bank’s Securities portfolio decreased at an annualized rate of 11.3%. However, on the other hand, loans and leases continue to demonstrate a decent rate of growth in 2024 – rising at an annualized rate of 2.7% in April 2024.   
• Amongst the various lending categories, the decline in Commercial and Industrial loans had been noticeable in 2023. The picture on C&I loan growth has been a mixed bag in 2024. January recorded a SA annual rate of -3.6%, which turned to a positive 4.6% rate in February and turned back into negative territory at -6.9% in March. The latest data for April shows C&I loans increased at an annualized rate of 3.1% 
• Commercial real estate, on the other hand, continues to demonstrate a sharp increase in lending despite all the ongoing concerns in the CRE space. CRE loans increased at an annualized rate of 3.2% in the first quarter of 2024. Latest data shows an annualized rate of 3.1% in April 2024.  
• Consumer credit had seen some sharp growth in recent months with credit card debt crossing the $1.0 trillion mark. The latest data shows a slowdown in consumer lending on the back of large increases in recent months and rising concerns on delinquencies. Consumer loans decreased at an annualized pace of 3.4% in April.  
• Deposits in the banking system declined at an annualized rate of 1.2% in April. However, this negative print might be attributable to the tax collection season. In general, deposits have held up well as the large fiscal spend by the government continues and the Treasury continues to drain liquidity from the RRP facility.  

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

26th Apr 2024

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the banking panics of SVB, SB and FRC of early last year faded completely from memory, market participants are now less worried about tracking deposit outflow data. The narrative in the new year has now changed and the focus is on credit growth once again. Bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 was a lot more muted. However, 2024 seems to have started on a positive note.   

• A rapid decline in credit creation was expected as a part of the hard landing narrative. Overall Bank credit either slowed down or contracted for most of 2023. A large part of the contraction was attributable to the securities portfolio of banks which even in Q4 2023 contracted at an annualized rate of 7%. Even Lending was significantly lower compared to 2022 levels. However, we saw some bounce back in lending levels towards the end of 2023. As per latest data in the H.8 release of 26th April 2024, Loans and Leases grew at a SA annual rate of 1.6% in March after having recorded 2.6% in January and 5.0% in February 2024. While this is significantly below 2022 growth rates, the key point to note is that the sharp decline in bank credit that everyone expected at the start of 2023 hasn’t really materialized. Based on the latest data, loan growth seems to be quite healthy. With the expectation that rates might have peaked, we even saw some re-acceleration in Banks’ securities portfolios.  Securities in Bank Credit grew at a SA annualized rate of 6% in January, though it moderated to minus 0.4% in February and re-accelerated back to a significant +22.7% in March. Rates have surged in March and April and it is likely banks are investing once again in longer dated securities given the expectations that short term rates have likely peaked and would trend down in the near future.  
• Amongst the various lending categories, the decline in Commercial and Industrial loans had been noticeable in 2023. The picture on C&I loan growth has been a mixed bag in 2024. January recorded a SA annual rate of -3.2%, which turned to a positive 4.0% rate in February and the latest data for March shows the rate of growth back into negative territory at -8.3%. 
• Commercial real estate, on the other hand, has recorded a sharp rise of about 4.0-5.0% in the first 3 months (SA annual rate). Similarly Residential real estate lending also saw some re-acceleration in recent months with closed-end residential loans growing at an annualized rate of 2.6% in March. 
• Consumer credit had seen some sharp growth in recent months with credit card debt crossing the $1.0 trillion mark. After a brief contraction in December, the latest data once again shows consumer loans growing at an annualized pace of 1.6% in March, 5.8% in February and 4.5% in January. 
• Deposits in the banking system grew at an annualized rate of 7.8% in March. Deposits have held up more or less at an unchanged level since the past year. This is also consistent with other data releases – specifically the drop in the RRP balances and the maintenance of bank reserves at an unchanged level in the Fed balance sheet data (H.4.1). April data will likely show some reduction in balances due to large tax payments.   

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

22nd Mar 2024

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the banking panics of SVB, SB and FRC of early last year faded completely from memory, market participants are now less worried about tracking deposit outflow data. The narrative in the new year has now changed and the focus is on credit growth once again. Bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 was a lot more muted. However, 2024 seems to have started on a positive note.   

• A rapid decline in credit creation was expected as a part of the hard landing narrative. Overall Bank credit either slowed down or contracted for most of 2023. A large part of the contraction was attributable to the securities portfolio of banks which even in Q4 2023 contracted at an annualized rate of 7%. Even Lending was significantly lower compared to 2022 levels. However, we saw some bounce back in lending levels towards the end of 2023. As per latest data in the H.8 release of 22nd Mar 2024, Loans and Leases grew at a SA annual rate of 5.0% in Feb after having recorded 2.6% in January 2024. While this is significantly below 2022 growth rates, the key point to note is that the sharp decline in bank credit that everyone expected at the start of 2023 hasn’t really materialized. Based on the latest data, loan growth seems to be very healthy. With the expectation that rates might have peaked, we even saw some re-acceleration in Banks’ securities portfolios.  Securities in Bank Credit grew at a SA annualized rate of 6% in January, though it moderated to minus 0.3% in February. 
• Amongst the various lending categories, the decline in Commercial and Industrial loans had been noticeable in 2023. However, once again based on the latest March 22nd data, C&I loans also increased at a 3.7% annualized rate in February. Overall C&L loan growth has remained tepid in the commercial banking space. However, a 3.7% growth rate indicates healthy lending activity.  
• Commercial real estate lending had also slowed significantly compared to 2022 levels. However, it grew at a 1.2% annualized rate in Q4 2023 and at an annualized rate of 4.8% in February 2024. Similarly Residential real estate lending also saw some re-acceleration in recent months with closed-end residential loans growing at an annualized rate of 2.2% in Q4 2023 and 4.3% in February. 
• Consumer credit had seen some sharp growth in recent months with credit card debt crossing the $1.0 trillion mark. After a brief contraction in December, the latest data once again shows consumer loans growing at an annualized pace of 6.0% in February and 5.1% in January. 
• Deposits in the banking system grew at an annualized rate of 3.7% in December and 4.4% in January. The latest data showed some moderation with February registering a 0.9%  growth rate. Deposits have held up more or less at an unchanged level since the past year. This is also consistent with other data releases – specifically the drop in the RRP balances and the maintenance of bank reserves at an unchanged level in the Fed balance sheet data (H.4.1).   

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

16th Feb 2024

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the banking panics of SVB, SB and FRC of early last year faded completely from memory, market participants are now less worried about tracking deposit outflow data. The narrative in the new year has now changed and the focus is on credit growth once again. Bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 was a lot more muted. However, 2024 seems to have started on a positive note.   

• A rapid decline in credit creation was expected as a part of the hard landing narrative. Overall Bank credit either slowed down or contracted for most of 2023. A large part of the contraction was attributable to the securities portfolio of banks which even in Q4 2023 contracted at an annualized rate of 7%. Even Lending was significantly lower compared to 2022 levels. However, we saw some bounce back in lending levels towards the end of 2023. As per latest data in the H.8 release of 16 Feb 2024, Loans and Leases grew at a SA annual rate of 2.9% in January 2024. While this is significantly below 2022 growth rates, the key point to note is that the sharp decline in bank credit that everyone expected at the start of 2023 hasn’t really materialized. With the expectation that rates might have peaked, we even saw some re-acceleration in Banks’ securities portfolios.  
• Amongst the various lending categories, the decline in Commercial and Industrial loans has been noticeable in 2023. However, once again based on the 16 Feb data, C&I loans also increased at a 2.9% annualized rate in January. Overall C&L loan growth has remained tepid in the commercial banking space. However, the rest of the banking landscape has outperformed on loan growth.   
• Commercial real estate lending had also slowed significantly compared to 2022 levels. However, it grew at a 1.2% annualized rate in Q4 2023 and at an annualized rate of 4.3% in January 2024. Similarly Residential real estate lending also saw some re-acceleration in recent months with closed-end residential loans growing at an annualized rate of 2.3% in Q4 2023 and 4.8% in January. 
• Consumer credit had seen some sharp growth in recent months with credit card debt crossing the $1.0 trillion mark. After a brief contraction in December, the latest data once again shows consumer loans growing at an annualized pace of 5.1% in January. 
• Deposits in the banking system grew at an annualized rate of 3.7% in December and then 4.4% in January. Deposits have held up more or less at an unchanged level since the past year. This is also consistent with other data releases – specifically the drop in the RRP balances and the maintenance of bank reserves at an unchanged level in the Fed balance sheet data (H.4.1).   

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

12th Jan 2024

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the banking panics of SVB, SB and FRC of early last year faded completely from memory, market participants are now less worried about tracking deposit outflow data. The narrative in the new year has now changed and the focus is on credit growth once again. Bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 was a lot more muted. However, 2024 seems to have started on a positive note.   

• A rapid decline in credit creation was expected as a part of the hard landing narrative. Overall Bank credit either slowed down or contracted for most of 2023. A large part of the contraction was attributable to the securities portfolio of banks which even in Q4 2023 contracted at an annualized rate of 7%. Even Lending was significantly lower compared to 2022 levels. However, we saw some bounce back in lending levels towards the end of 2023. As per data in the H.8 release of 12 Jan 2024, Loans and Leases grew at a SA annual rate of 1.0% in December 2023. While this is significantly below 2022 levels, the key point to note is that the sharp decline in bank credit that everyone expected at the start of 2023 hasn’t really materialized. Most importantly even the securities portfolio in banks grew at an annualized rate of 19% in December. However, it might be more attributable to year end balance sheet management. 
• Amongst the various lending categories, the decline in Commercial and Industrial loans has been noticeable in 2023. However, once again based on the Jan 12th data, C&I loans also increased at a 2.7% annualized rate in December. Similar to the overall lending data, C&I loans have also seen a slight re-acceleration in recent months.  
• Commercial real estate lending had also slowed significantly compared to 2022 levels. However, it grew at a 1.2% annualized rate in Q4 2023 and at an annualized rate of 1.8% in December 2023. Similarly Residential real estate lending also saw some re-acceleration in recent months with closed-end residential loans growing at an annualized rate of 2.3% in Q4 2023 and 5.0% in December. 
• Consumer credit had seen some sharp growth in recent months with credit card debt crossing the $1.0 trillion mark. However, contrary to the very recent trend in C&I and CRE loans, there seems to be a bit of a slowdown in the rate of growth in consumer loans. The latest release shows Consumer Loans contracting at a 1.4% annualized rate in December. 
• Deposits in the banking system grew at an annualized rate of 3.6% in December. Deposits have held up more or less at an unchanged level since the past year. This is also consistent with other data releases – specifically the drop in the RRP balances and the maintenance of bank reserves at an unchanged level in the Fed balance sheet data (H.4.1).   

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

24th Nov 2023

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the banking panics of SVB, SB and FRC earlier in the year, market participants have been keenly tracking this release to observe deposit outflows – especially from small banks. On the other hand, bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 is turning out to be a lot more muted.  

• While a rapid decline in credit creation is yet to be seen, it is undoubtedly slowing. For instance, overall Bank credit is contracting at an annualized rate of 3.3% based on October 2023 numbers. A large part of the contraction is attributable to the securities portfolio of banks which contracted at an annualized rate of 14%. But lending is significantly lower compared to 2022 levels. As per the last data in the H.8 release, Loans and Leases grew at a SA annual rate of 1.2% in October 2023. While this is significantly below 2022 levels, the key point to note is that the sharp decline in bank credit that everyone expected at the start of 2023 hasn’t really materialized.  
• Amongst the various lending categories, the decline in Commercial and Industrial loans has been noticeable in 2023. However, based on the latest data, C&I loans also increased at a 2.3% annualized rate in October. Similar to the overall lending data, C&I loans have also seen a slight re-acceleration in recent months.  
• Commercial real estate lending slowed to a SA annual rate of +0.3% in October. Residential real estate lending, on the other had, has witnessed some re-acceleration in recent months with closed-end residential loans growing at an annualized rate of 6.1% in September. However, the latest data for October showed Residential loans declining at a SA annualized rate of 0.8%
• Consumer credit has so far shown a sharp growth in recent months as consumers load on incremental credit card debt. The latest release though shows Consumer Loans expanding at a 0.3% annualized rate in October. 
• Deposits in the banking system also showed a modest growth in September (annualized 1.0% growth) and a 0.1% growth in October. Deposits have held up more or less at an unchanged level since the past year. This is also consistent with other data releases – specifically the drop in the RRP balances and the maintenance of bank reserves at an unchanged level in the Fed balance sheet data (H.4.1).   

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

20th Oct 2023

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the banking panics of SVB, SB and FRC earlier in the year, market participants have been keenly tracking this release to observe deposit outflows – especially from small banks. On the other hand, bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 is turning out to be a lot more muted.  

• While a rapid decline in credit creation is yet to be seen, it is undoubtedly slowing. For instance, overall Bank credit is contracting at an annualized rate of 0.6% based on September 2023 numbers. A large part of the contraction is attributable to the securities portfolio of banks which contracted at an annualized rate of 8%. But lending is significantly lower compared to 2022 levels. As per the last data in the H.8 release, Loans and Leases grew at a SA annual rate of 2.6% in September 2023. While this is significantly below 2022 levels, the past couple of months have seen a re-acceleration in bank lending. 
• The decline in Commercial and Industrial loans has been noticeable in 2023. However, based on the latest data, C&I loans also increased at a 0.4% annualized rate in September. Similar to the overall lending data, C&I loans have also seen a slight re-acceleration in recent months.  
• Commercial real estate lending slowed to a SA annual rate of +0.9% in September. Residential real estate lending, on the other had, has witnessed some re-acceleration in recent months with closed-end residential loans growing at an annualized rate of 6.2% in September.
• Consumer credit showed a sharp growth in September 2023. The latest release shows Consumer Loans expanding at a 3.7% annualized rate primarily driven by credit card balances. 
• Deposits in the banking system also showed a modest growth in September 2023 (annualized 1.0% growth) compared to a sharp fall in August 2023 (annualized 2.9% decline) Deposits have held up more or less at an unchanged level since the past year. This is also consistent with other data releases – specifically the drop in the RRP balances and the maintenance of bank reserves at an unchanged level in the Fed balance sheet data (H.4.1).   

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

22nd Sep 2023

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the recent banking panics of SVB, SB and FRC, market participants have been keenly tracking this release to observe deposit outflows – especially from small banks. On the other hand, bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 is turning out to be a lot more muted.  

• While a rapid decline in credit creation is yet to be seen, credit creation is undoubtedly slowing. For instance, overall Bank credit is contracting at an annualized rate of 2.8% based on August 2023 numbers. A large part of the contraction is attributable to the securities portfolio of banks. But lending is slowing as well. As per the last data in the H.8 release, Loans and Leases grew at a SA annual rate of 2.0% in August 2023. While this is an improvement over the negative rates seen in the prior months, it is still significantly below 2022 as well as pre-pandemic averages.
• The decline in Commercial and Industrial loans has also been noticeable in 2023. Similar to overall Loans and Leases, based on the latest data, C&I loans were unchanged to show a 0% annualized rate in August. Once again an improvement over the minus 3.6% rate recorded in June.  
• Commercial real estate lending slowed to a SA annual rate of +2.7% in August.
• On the other hand, consumer credit showed a sharp growth in August 2023. The latest release shows Consumer Loans expanding at a 5.1% annualized rate primarily driven by credit card balances. 
• Deposits in the banking system fell sharply in August at a SA annualized rate of minus 2.7%. Deposits have held up more or less at an unchanged level since the past year. This is also consistent with other data releases – specifically the drop in the RRP balances and the maintenance of bank reserves at an unchanged level in the Fed balance sheet data (H.4.1). The latest data for August might primarily be on account of the large treasury issuances.  

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

18th Aug 2023

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the recent banking panics of SVB, SB and FRC, market participants have been keenly tracking this release to observe deposit outflows – especially from small banks. On the other hand, bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 is turning out to be a lot more muted.  

• While a rapid decline in credit creation is yet to be seen, credit creation is undoubtedly slowing. For instance, overall Bank credit is contracting at an annualized rate of 2.9% based on June 2023 numbers. A large part of the contraction is attributable to the securities portfolio of banks. But lending is slowing as well. Loans and Leases contracted at a SA annual rate of 1.7% in Jun 2023. The latest data shows a mild recovery in July in Bank Lending. Loans and Leases in Bank Credit grew at an annualized rate of 0.9% in July 2023.
• The decline in Commercial and Industrial loans has also been noticeable in 2023. Based on the latest data, C&I loans fell at an annualized rate of -2.1% in July (which was better than the minus 4.6% rate in June) 
• Commercial real estate lending slowed to a SA annual rate of +1.1% in July. The slowdown in CRE Lending has been the most noticeable and it is in line with the general malaise we have seen in the CRE space.
• Likewise, consumer credit growth slowed to 0.6% annualized rate in July from a 7 to 10% growth that we had seen in late 2022 and early 2024. It is reasonable to expect a slow down in discretionary consumption in the US on the back of lower consumer borrowing. 
• On the other hand, deposits in the banking system grew at a SA annualized rate of 2.9% in June and 0.7% in July. Deposits have held up more or less at an unchanged level. This is also consistent with other data releases – specifically the drop in the RRP balances and the maintenance of bank reserves at an unchanged level in the Fed balance sheet data (H.4.1) 

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

21st Jul 2023

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the recent banking panics of SVB, SB and FRC, market participants have been keenly tracking this release to observe deposit outflows – especially from small banks. On the other hand, bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 is turning out to be a lot more muted.  

• The latest H.8 release of July 21st provides further clarity on the trends in loans and deposits in the banking industry. While a rapid decline in credit creation is yet to be seen, credit creation is undoubtedly slowing. For instance, overall Bank credit is contracting at an annualized rate of 2.3% based on 1H 2023 numbers. A large part of the contraction is attributable to the securities portfolio of banks. But lending is slowing as well. Loans and Leases contracted at a SA annual rate of 1.6% in Jun 2023.
• The decline in Commercial and Industrial loans is accelerating. C&I loans fell at an annualized rate of -3.9% in June 
• Commercial real estate lending slowed to a SA annual rate of +3.5% in June (from +6.2% in May). Residential Real Estate loans fell to a SA annualized rate of -10.2% in June. These are big changes and the downstream effects are yet to be felt.
• Likewise, consumer credit growth slowed to 3.3% annualized rate in June from 6.4% in May.
• On the other hand, deposits in the banking system grew at a SA annualized rate of 3% in June. Deposits in the first 2 weeks of July have also held up more or less at an unchanged level. This is also consistent with other data releases – specifically the drop in the RRP balances and the maintenance of bank reserves at an unchanged level in the Fed balance sheet data (H.4.1) 

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

9th Jun 2023

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the recent banking panics of SVB, SB and FRC, market participants have been keenly tracking this release to observe deposit outflows – especially from small banks. On the other hand, bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 is turning out to be a lot more muted.  

• The latest H8 release of June 9th was key since it released annualized growth rates for the month of May for the first time. While a rapid decline in credit creation is yet to be seen, the latest release gives a slightly clearer picture of the underlying trends. The decline in Commercial and Industrial loans is accelerating. C&I loans fell at an annualized rate of 4.6% in May (accelerating further from -3.3% in April).
• However, the strength in real estate lending continued. Residential Real Estate loans grew at a SA annualized rate of 6.4% and Commercial Real Estate Loans grew at a SA annualized rate of 7.9%. Those are big figures and the slowdown in real estate credit is still not evident in data.
• Likewise, consumer credit is growing at a significant pace at well (4.5%). With the recent uptick in delinquency rates in auto loans and credit cards, this growth in consumer credit seems far from healthy!
• Similar to last week, deposits at banks also increased on both a SA and NSA basis. This number will be absolutely key to track over the next 3 months as the US Treasury ramps up its T Bill issuance and sucks liquidity out of the banking system. 

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

2nd Jun 2023

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the recent banking panics of SVB, SB and FRC, market participants have been keenly tracking this release to observe deposit outflows – especially from small banks. On the other hand, bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 is turning out to be a lot more muted.  

• The latest Fed H8 release showed deposits at banks increased a substantial $86bn on a SA basis. Deposits at banks had been in a general declining trend since the time the Fed started increasing interest rates. The deposit decline accelerated in the immediate aftermath of the SVB and SB banking episodes. Irrespective of the liquidity impact of the ongoing debt ceiling issue, it is noteworthy that deposits increased by a large $86bn. However, the non seasonally adjusted data showed deposits fell $31bn in the latest week.   
• Everyone is expecting credit to slowdown. However, there isnt much of evidence yet of a credit crunch. In general, Commercial and Industrial Loans have been declining – which can be interpreted to mean lower credit creation in the broader industry. However, real estate loans have in fact grown substantially since the start of the year. Commercial Real Estate lending has yet to show meaningful signs of slowdown – despite the widely telegraphed fears of a meltdown in the commercial real estate space. Moreover, Residential Real Estate loans have continued to grow since the start of the year.  
• On the other hand, the pace of increase in the banks portfolio of securities (primarily US treasuries and agency mortgage backed securities) has gradually fallen since the highs of 2021/2022. The latest H.8 release shows the aggregate securities in bank credit decreasing at an annualized rate of minus 12%. With interest rates rising sharply and the recent banking liquidity panics, banks are choosing to hold more liquid reserves and cash on hand to meet any deposit outflow requirements. 

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

5th May 2023

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the recent banking panics of SVB, SB and FRC, market participants have been keenly tracking this release to observe deposit outflows – especially from small banks. On the other hand, bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 is turning out to be a lot more muted.  

• After having fallen ~$85bn in the week ended 12th April and having increased a small $12bn in the week ended 19th April, Deposits at banks in the week ended 26th Apr were back down again – by a relatively small $12bn. Deposits fell ~$106bn on a not seasonally adjusted basis – and that can be attributed to the tax payments that happen in April. Most of the drop was recorded at Foreign banks. Deposits grew at Domestic Banks – both Large and Small.  
• Everyone is expecting credit to slowdown. Once again, there wasn’t much of evidence in this week’s report. But then again this credit slowdown is a slow drag and it is reasonable to expect this to occur over several month. Loans and Leases increased by sizeable $40bn in the week ending 26 Apr. Loans and Leases are still growing at an annualized rate of 5.7% according to the latest data. This number is expected to substantially come down.  
• On the other hand, the pace of increase in the banks portfolio of securities (primarily US treasuries and agency mortgage backed securities) has gradually fallen since the highs of 2021/2022. The latest H.8 release shows the aggregate securities in bank credit decreasing at an annualized rate of minus 24%. With interest rates rising sharply and the recent banking liquidity panics, banks are choosing to hold more liquid reserves and cash on hand to meet any deposit outflow requirements. Treasury and MBS securities in banks portfolios were steady on a SA basis in the week ending 26 Apr. 

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

28th Apr 2023

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the recent banking panics of SVB, SB and FRC, market participants have been keenly tracking this release to observe deposit outflows – especially from small banks. On the other hand, bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 is turning out to be a lot more muted.  

• After having fallen ~$75bn in the week before, Deposits at banks in the week ended 19th Apr increased $22bn on a seasonally adjusted basis. Deposits fell ~$140bn on a not seasonally adjusted basis – and that can be attributed to the tax payments that happen in April. The deposit increase on a SA basis was mostly at large banks, while deposits at small banks remained flat. 
• Everyone is expecting credit to slowdown. There wasnt much of evidence in this week’s report. But then again this credit slowdown is a slow drag and it is reasonable to expect this to occur over several month. Loans and Leases increased by $15bn in the week ending 19 Apr. Loans and Leases are still growing at an annualized rate of 5.7% according to the latest data. This number is expected to substantially come down.  
• On the other hand, the pace of increase in the banks portfolio of securities (primarily US treasuries and agency mortgage backed securities) has gradually fallen since the highs of 2021/2022. The latest H.8 release shows the aggregate securities in bank credit decreasing at an annualized rate of minus 24%. With interest rates rising sharply and the recent banking liquidity panics, banks are choosing to hold more liquid reserves and cash on hand to meet any deposit outflow requirements. Treasury and MBS securities in banks portfolios were steady on a SA basis in the week ending 19 Apr. 

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US

21st Apr 2023

Key takeaway:  Tracking deposit and loan data in the US Banking system is a critical aspect of understanding the overall monetary and economic picture. With the recent banking panics of SVB, SB and FRC, market participants have been keenly tracking this release to observe deposit outflows – especially from small banks. On the other hand, bank lending is central to new money creation in the economy. After a blockbuster 2022 for bank lending, 2023 is turning out to be a lot more muted.  

• Deposits fell by ~$75bn at banks in the week ended 12th Apr. The drop was seen across both large banks (~$45bn) and small banks (~$5bn). Cumulatively since Dec 2022, banks have lost ~$600bn of deposits!
• 2022 had been a blockbuster year for loan creation by US banks. Almost $1.3bn of net new loans and leases were added in the commercial banking system. In contrast, outstanding loans and leases have increased only ~$100bn from ~$12Tn at end 2022 to ~$12.1Tn by Mar 2023. The annualized rate of increase in loans and leases thus far in 2023 has been about 5% – in contrast to the 12% seen in 2022. The pace of loan creation will be keenly observed by market participants via this H.8 release. The Fed expects tighter lending conditions as a fallout of the SVB/SB bankruptcy episodes and is relying on tighter lending conditions to help alleviate the inflation problem. Any continued increase in bank lending will only complicate the problem further. 
• Similarly the pace of increase in the banks portfolio of securities (primarily US treasuries and agency mortgage backed securities) has also gradually fallen since the highs of 2021/2022. The latest H.8 release shows the aggregate securities in bank credit decreasing at an annualized rate of minus 24%. With interest rates rising sharply and the recent banking liquidity panics, banks are choosing to hold more liquid reserves and cash on hand to meet any deposit outflow requirements. 

Loans and Leases of All Commercial Banks in the US

Deposits of All Commercial Banks in the US