US Macro Updates

The One Stop Portal for US Macroeconomic Data. Simplified and Summarized! 

We simplify and summarize key data so that you don’t have to spend hours reading confusing and long media releases. Read key economic releases and major events here in under 2 minutes. And we will explain the key takeaway for you. Stay informed and form a robust view on macroeconomic matters to aid your successful investment decisions

3rd Aug 2026

ISM US Manufacturing PMI

Key takeaway: The ISM Manufacturing PMI for July 2026, released August 3, jumped 2.3 points to 55.6 — well above the roughly 54.0 consensus estimate and June’s 53.3 — marking the highest reading since May 2022 and a seventh consecutive month of expansion in a factory sector now growing for the 21st straight month at the broader-economy level. The acceleration was broad-based: New Orders rose to 56.7, its seventh straight expansionary month, while Production surged 6.3 points to 58.5, the strongest since late 2021. The standout was Employment, which climbed to 52.8 and broke into expansion for the first time in 33 months. Prices stayed a concern despite easing — the index fell to 71.1 from 73.0, its third straight decline but still near multi-year highs, with ISM Chair Susan Spence citing both tariffs and the ongoing Iran conflict as cost drivers. Breadth confirmed the strength: 15 of 18 manufacturing industries expanded in July, with only Chemical Products contracting, and zero percent of manufacturing GDP registered in strong contraction for the first time this year. The report lands just a day after the Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29, with three officials reportedly pushing for a hike — and a factory sector this hot, still running elevated prices, only reinforces the case for the Fed to stay cautious on cutting even as growth momentum builds.

1st Jul 2026

Key takeaway: The ISM Manufacturing PMI for June 2026, released on July 1, showed the factory sector’s expansion losing some momentum after two firmer months. The headline index fell 0.7 percentage points to 53.3% — below the 54.0% consensus forecast — marking a sixth consecutive month of expansion for manufacturing and a 20th straight month of growth for the broader economy. New Orders remained the strongest pillar, expanding for a sixth straight month at 56.0%, though the pace eased 0.8 points from May’s 56.8%, while Production slowed more sharply, down 2.1 points to 52.2% in its eighth consecutive month of growth. The most notable shift was on prices: the Prices Index tumbled 9.1 points to 73.0% — its largest single-month decline since July 2022 — though costs remain elevated, with 15 of 18 industries still reporting higher input prices in June. Employment ticked up 1.1 points to 49.7% but stayed in contraction, and New Export Orders slipped back into contraction at 48.5%, down 2.1 points, alongside a 3.2-point deceleration in Supplier Deliveries to 57.4%. Fourteen of 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in June, with Paper Products, Furniture & Related Products, and Wood Products in contraction. ISM Chair Susan Spence’s report noted that among negative respondent comments, the Iran war was cited in 31% and tariffs in 17%, with one transportation equipment respondent warning that Section 232 tariffs “continue to destroy our profitability and demand.” The combination of cooling new orders and production growth, a still-contracting labor market, and renewed export weakness suggests the manufacturing recovery is losing steam even as the sharp pullback in prices offers some relief on the inflation side — a mixed print that leaves the Fed weighing softening factory activity against still-elevated, if easing, cost pressures.

1st Jun 2026

Key takeaway: The ISM Manufacturing PMI for May 2026, released on June 1, delivered the strongest reading in four years and cemented what is now a genuine expansion phase for US factory activity. The headline PMI rose 1.3 percentage points to 54.0% — its highest since May 2022 — marking five consecutive months of expansion, with New Orders up 2.7 points to 56.8% and Production gaining 0.9 points to 54.3%, both extending their own run of consecutive expansions. Supplier Deliveries held at 60.6% — matching its highest reading since May 2022 and signalling meaningfully longer lead times — while 16 of 18 industries reported expansion, with the share of manufacturing GDP in contraction falling to just 2%. The one persistent blemish was the price picture: the Input Prices Index eased slightly by 2.5 points to 82.1% but remained the second highest reading since April 2022 and extended its streak of monthly expansion to 20 consecutive months, with virtually every respondent comment referencing higher prices. Employment remained in contraction at 48.6%, its 32nd consecutive month below 50, ticking up 2.2 points but still signalling that firms are expanding output without meaningfully adding to headcount — a combination that speaks to productivity gains but also caution, and one that keeps the May report a story of robust demand running into an increasingly strained and expensive supply side.

1st May 2026
Key takeaway: The ISM Manufacturing PMI for April 2026, released on May 1, showed the US manufacturing sector holding firmly in expansion territory while grappling with intensifying cost pressures. The headline PMI came in at 52.7% — unchanged from March, matching its highest level since August 2022 but falling slightly short of the 53.0 consensus expectation — marking the fourth consecutive month of expansion and signalling the overall economy has now grown for 18 straight months. Beneath the headline the picture was mixed: New Orders expanded for the fourth consecutive month at 54.1%, while Production eased to 53.4% from 55.1%, and Supplier Deliveries lengthened further to 60.6% from 58.9% — a sign of increasing supply chain strain. Employment remained in contraction for the 31st consecutive month, falling further to 46.4% from 48.7%, as firms proved reluctant to add headcount amid cost uncertainty. The most alarming sub-index was prices — input costs surged at the fastest pace since April 2022, driven by rising oil and diesel costs linked to the Middle East conflict. ISM Chair Susan Spence noted that while some of the strength in new orders appears to reflect pull-forward activity ahead of further price increases, customer inventories remain at 39.1% — well below the neutral level — a positive signal that should underpin production in the months ahead.    

1st Apr 2026
Key takeaway: The latest US ISM Manufacturing report (March 2026) points to a continued recovery in factory activity alongside a sharp resurgence in cost pressures. The headline PMI rose to ~52.7 (from 52.4 in February), the highest level since mid-2022, indicating a third consecutive month of expansion. Growth was supported by new orders remaining in expansion territory (~53.5), though momentum eased slightly, while production also continued to expand. However, the report was dominated by a significant spike in inflation, with the prices paid index jumping to ~78.3, its highest since 2022, reflecting rising input costs linked to energy, metals, and supply disruptions. Supply chains showed renewed strain, with supplier deliveries slowing (higher index readings), while employment remained in contraction (~48–49), indicating ongoing caution in hiring. Overall, the survey suggests that while US manufacturing is gaining traction after a prolonged downturn, it is doing so in a more inflationary and supply-constrained environment, reinforcing a stagflationary tilt at the margin and complicating the Fed’s policy outlook.    

2nd Mar 2026

Key takeaway: Economic activity in the manufacturing sector posted an upside surprise in February – for the second month in a row. The Index posted 52.4, a slight decline from January, but still in expansion territory above 50.0. Generally the Manufacturing sector has under performed relative to Services sector for the past 3 years. January had posted a large gain after a similar gain was seen at the start of last year. While manufacturing has posted an expansionary print again in February, it might be too early to call for a revival in this sector. The Production Index in fact declined from 55.9 to 53.5. The new orders index also slowed down from 57.1 to 55.8. Most importantly, the Prices index rose by a substantial 11.5 points, from 59.0 to 70.5. The high prices print in the ISM manufacturing survey comes on the back of a high PPI print for January that was recently released. Combine this with a rising oil price due to the Middle East war, and inflation concerns are back on the table.    

2nd Feb 2026

Key takeaway: Economic activity in the manufacturing sector posted an upside surprise in January. The Index expanded for the first time in 10 months. Generally the Manufacturing sector has under performed relative to Services sector for the past 3 years. January posted a large gain after a similar gain was seen at the start of last year. The headline PMI increased from 47.9 to 52.6. The Production Index posted a large jump from 50.7 to 55.9. More importantly, the new orders index soared from 47.4 to 57.1. The New Orders Index had briefly entered expansion territory in August after a 6 month contraction period and then contracted for 4 months in a row. The Employment index also improved from 44.8 to 48.1. It will need to be seen whether January was an exception or there will be a continued expansion in the manufacturing sector in 2026. So far, there are no visible indicators pointing to a sustained improvement in manufacturing. The Prices index mostly remained the same as the previous month at 59.0. The Prices Index is lower than the highs of 70.0 seen at the start of the year, though it still remains substantially high and is still indicative of underlying price pressures in the economy.         

5th Jan 2026

Key takeaway: Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the 10th consecutive month, following a brief expansion in January and February at the start of the year. The underperformance of the Manufacturing sector, relative to Services, continues as it has been for the past 3 years. The headline PMI decreased slightly from 48.2 to 47.9. The Production Index declined slightly from 51.4 to 51.0, but was still in expansion territory. The improvement in production is seen as a result of the improvement in Backlog of Orders Index seen in October. However, most other sub indexes continued in contraction territory. The all-important New Orders Index contracted for the 4th month in a row, but improved from 47.4 to 47.7. The New Orders Index had briefly entered expansion territory in August after a 6 month contraction period, but is now back again below 50 for the past 4 months. The Employment index also continued to be in contraction territory but improved slightly from 44.0 to 44.9. The Prices index remained the same as the previous month at 58.5. The Prices Index is lower than the highs of 70.0 seen at the start of the year, though it still remains substantially high and is still indicative of underlying price pressures in the economy.         

1st Dec 2025

Key takeaway: Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November  for the 9th consecutive month, following a brief expansion in January and February at the start of the year. The underperformance of the Manufacturing sector, relative to Services, continues as it has been for the past 3 years. The headline PMI decreased slightly from 48.7 to 48.2. The Production Index increased from 48.2 to 51.4 i.e. into expansion territory. The improvement in production is seen as a result of the improvement in Backlog of Orders Index seen in October. However, most other sub indexes continued in contraction territory. The all-important New Orders Index contracted for the 3rd month in a row, decreasing 49.4 to 47.4. The New Orders Index had briefly entered expansion territory in August after a 6 month contraction period, but is now back again below 50 for the past 3 months. The Employment index also continued to be in contraction territory decreasing from 46.0 to 44.0. The Prices index increased slightly from 58.0 to 58.5. Even though it still remains substantially high and is still indicative of underlying price pressures in the economy, it has declined meaningfully from recent highs.        

3rd Nov 2025

Key takeaway: Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October  for the 8th consecutive month, following a brief expansion in January and February at the start of the year. The underperformance of the Manufacturing sector, relative to Services, continues as it has been for the past 3 years. The headline PMI decreased slightly from 49.1 to 48.7. The Production Index also declined from 51.0 to 48.2. The all-important New Orders Index increased slightly from 48.9 to 49.4, though it remains in contraction territory below the 50.0 mark. The New Orders Index had briefly entered expansion territory in August after a 6 month contraction period, but is now back again below 50 for the past 2 months. The Employment index also continued to be in contraction territory, improving a bit from from 45.3 to 46.0. The Prices index also declined a bit from 61.9 to 58.0. Even though it still remains substantially high and is still indicative of underlying price pressures in the economy, it has declined meaningfully from recent highs.        

1st Oct 2025

Key takeaway: Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in September  for the 7th consecutive month, following a brief expansion in January and February at the start of the year. The story for most of 2023 and 2024 was one of resilience and outperformance in the services sector and weakness in the manufacturing sector. That story has been pretty identical in 2025 as well. ISM Manufacturing PMI was below 50 all of 2024. We saw some revival during 4Q 2024. That continued into 2025 with January and February recording prints above 50. However, since then the Index continues to be in negative territory. The headline PMI increased slightly from 48.7 to 49.1. The Production Index improved from 47.8 to 51.0. However, the important New Orders Index contracted from 51.4 to 48.9. The New Orders Index had briefly entered expansion territory in August after a 6 month contraction period, but is now back again below 50. The Employment index also continued to be in contraction territory, improving a bit from from 43.8 to 45.3. The Prices index also declined a bit from 63.7 to 61.9. However, it still remains substantially high and is still indicative of underlying price pressures in the economy.        

2nd Sep 2025

Key takeaway: Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in August  for the 6th consecutive month, following a brief expansion in January and February at the start of the year. The story for most of 2023 and 2024 was one of resilience and outperformance in the services sector and weakness in the manufacturing sector. ISM Manufacturing PMI was below 50 all of 2024. We saw some revival during 4Q 2024. That continued into 2025 with January and February recording prints above 50. However, since then the Index continues to be in negative territory. The headline PMI increased slightly from 48.0 to 48.7. The Production Index fell from 51.4 to 47.8. However, the important New Orders Index improved from 47.1 to 51.4. The New Orders Index entered expansion territory after a 6 month contraction period. The Employment index continued to be in contractioin territory, improving a bit from from 43.4 to 43.8. The Prices index also declined a bit from 64.8 to 63.7. However, it still remains substantially high and is still indicative of underlying price pressures in the economy.        

1st Aug 2025

Key takeaway: Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in July  for the 5th consecutive month, following a brief expansion in January and February at the start of the year. The story for most of 2023 and 2024 was one of resilience and outperformance in the services sector and weakness in the manufacturing sector. ISM Manufacturing PMI was below 50 all of 2024. We saw some revival during 4Q 2024. That continued into 2025 with January and February recording prints above 50. However, since then the Index continues to be in negative territory. The headline PMI fell a fair bit from 49.0 to 48.0. The Production Index improved from 50.3 to 51.4. The New Orders Index also improved from 46.4 to 47.1. However, large drops were seem in Employment and Price Indexes. The Employment index declined from 45.0 to 43.4. This is especially key given that the same day we have also witnessed a super weak NFP report. The 2 data points combined have set the cat among the pigeons. The Prices index also declined substantially from 69.7 to 64.8. However, it still remains substantially high and is still indicative of underlying price pressures in the economy.        

1st Jul 2025

Key takeaway: Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the 4th consecutive month, following a brief expansion in January and February at the start of the year. The story for most of 2023 and 2024 was one of resilience and outperformance in the services sector and weakness in the manufacturing sector. ISM Manufacturing PMI was below 50 all of 2024. We saw some revival during 4Q 2024. That continued into 2025 with January and February recording prints above 50. However, since then the Index continues to be in negative territory. The headline PMI improved slightly from 48.5 to 49.0. The Production Index improved substantially from 45.4 to 50.3. However, the New Orders Index declined from 47.6 to 46.4. The Employment index also declined from 46.8 to 45.0. This is especially key given that this week we will get further data on the employment picture including JOLTS and Non farm payroll. The Prices index was mostly unchanged but remained high at 69.7 and continues to suggest increasing price pressures.        

2nd Jun 2025

Key takeaway: The story for most of 2023 and 2024 was one of resilience and outperformance in the services sector and weakness in the manufacturing sector. ISM Manufacturing PMI was below 50 all of 2024. We started seeing some revival during 4Q 2024. That continued into 2025 with January and February recording prints above 50. However, the March report saw the headline PMI dip below 50.0 at 49.0. The Index slipped 0.3 points again in April to record 48.7. That trend has continued in the latest month of May with the headline Index falling further to 48.5. However, the drop was not substantially large even though the Index continues to be in negative territory. The Production Index actually improved from 44.0 to 45.4. The New Orders Index also improved marginally from 47.2 to 47.6. The Employment index also improved a bit. The bulk of the drag on the headline index came from Inventories which fell by 4.1%. This could also mean that we could see improvement in new orders as customer inventories fall further. The Prices index remained high at 69.4, almost unchanged and continues to suggest increasing price pressures.        

1st May 2025

Key takeaway: The ISM Manufacturing data for April is here and it is key because this is the first month of PMI data post Liberation day on April 4th. And the report once again adds to some of the stagflation worries from the previous ISM manufacturing report. The story for most of 2023 and 2024 was one of resilience and outperformance in the services sector and weakness in the manufacturing sector. ISM Manufacturing PMI was below 50 all of 2024. We started seeing some revival during 4Q 2024. That continued into 2025 with January and February recording prints above 50. However, the March report saw the headline PMI dip below 50.0 at 49.0. The Index slipped 0.3 points again in April to record 48.7. If we continue to see more months of declining PMI, it will have certainly been established that the bump was a head fake caused from tariff front running. The New Orders Index increased from 45.2 to 47.2. However, a below 50 number still indicates contraction. The Employment sub index improved from 44.7 to 46.5. Lastly, the Prices Index increased a bit from 69.4 to 69.8. While the increase from the previous month was not large, at 69.8 the figure is large enough to indicate continued price pressures. This once again adds stagflation fears in the market.       

1st Apr 2025

Key takeaway: The ISM Manufacturing data for March is out. And the report has stagflation written all over it! Now one month does not make a trend. But lets look at the underlying details. The story for most of 2023 and 2024 was one of resilience and outperformance in the services sector and weakness in the manufacturing sector. ISM Manufacturing PMI was below 50 all of 2024. We started seeing some revival during 4Q 2024. That continued into 2025 with January and February recording prints above 50. However, the latest report had the headline PMI at 49.0, once again in contractionary territory. If we continue to see more months of declining PMI, it will have certainly been established that the bump was a head fake caused from tariff front running. The rest of the details in the release did not look good either. The New Orders Index fell from 48.6 to 45.2. The Employment sub index fell from 47.6 to 44.7. This number is especially key this week as we get ADP and NFP data later in the week. Lastly, the Prices Index once again rose sharply from 62.4 in February to 69.4 in March. This once again adds stagflation fears in the market.       

3rd Mar 2025

Key takeaway: The story for most of 2023 and 2024 was one of resilience and outperformance in the services sector and weakness in the manufacturing sector. Over the past 2-3 months we had started seeing some green shoots in the manufacturing space and the latest February ISM Manufacturing report was keenly awaited by market participants. Today’s release shows a mixed picture though. Firstly, headline manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3. The good news was that this is the second month in a row that the PMI has printed above 50 i.e. in expansionary territory. However, unfortunately the good news stops there. The headline reading was lower than 50.9 in January and also slightly lower than consensus expectations. The Employment sub index fell from 50.3 to 47.6. This number is especially key in light of the increase in Initial Jobless Claims seen last week. However, most importantly, the critical New Orders Index fell sharply from 55.1 to 47.6. If weakness returns substantially to the manufacturing sector, it will be evident that the head fake that we have seen in recent months was on account of front running tariffs. The Production Index also dipped slightly by 1.8% to 50.7%. Lastly, the Prices Index rose sharply from 54.9 in January to 62.4 in February. This would likely add to some of the stagflation fears in the market.       

3rd Feb 2025

Key takeaway: The mild resurgence in US manufacturing continued again into the month of January. However, it would be almost amiss to call it “mild”. At 50.9%, the headline ISM Manufacturing PMI Index posted its best reading in almost a year. The reading was 1.7% higher compared to 49.2 in December. Almost all sub indexes, both demand and output improved compared to the previous month. More importantly, New Orders Index continued in expansion territory for the third month in a row after seven months of contraction, strengthening to 55.1 from 52.1 in December. The Production Index also improved by by 2.6% to 52.5%. The employment index registered a sharp jump from 45.4 to 50.3. After several months of being in contraction territory, manufacturing PMI is indicating some upward momentum. It will be key to watch whether this momentum will be sustained in light of the recent market and policy volatility.     

3rd Jan 2025

Key takeaway: The mild resurgence in US manufacturing continued again into the month of December. The latest ISM report for December showed that economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted for the 8th consecutive month. However, more importantly the pace of contraction was once again lower than the previous month. The ISM Manufacturing PMI increased to 49.3 in December from 48.4 in November. That was also higher than consensus expectations of 48.2. Headline ISM improved for a 2nd month in a row as demand showed signs of improvement. The important New Orders Index continued in expansion territory for the second month after seven months of contraction, strengthening to 52.5 from 50.4 in November. The Production, Price and Backlog Indexes all improved from the previous month. The employment index registered 45.3, down 2.8 from November’s 48.1. Overall, the PMI continues to show that the manufacturing sector continues to be in contraction, but is demonstrating a mild improving trend.     

2nd Dec 2024

Key takeaway: The latest ISM report for November showed that economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted for the 8th consecutive month. However, more importantly the pace of contraction was lower than the previous month. The ISM Manufacturing PMI increased to 48.4 in November from 46.5 in October. That was also higher than consensus expectations of 47.7. Even though the manufacturing sector continues to be in contraction, the report overall was not as dismal. The all important New Orders Index has increased for 3 consecutive months and recorded a number above 50 for the first time since March 2024. The Employment Index also improved slightly from 44.1 to 48.1. The Prices Index, on the other hand, fell sharply from 54.8 to 50.3. The Prices Index has been slightly accelerating for the past few months. With the overall economy continuing to be robust, price pressures will continue to be keenly monitored by the market. Overall, the PMI continues to show that the manufacturing sector continues to be in contraction.     

1st Nov 2024

Key takeaway: The latest ISM report for October showed that economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted for the 7th consecutive month. The ISM Manufacturing PMI dipped slightly to 46.5 in October from 47.2 in September. That was also lower than consensus expectations of 47.6. The sector continues to be in contraction for the 7th consecutive month and the 23rd month in the past 24 months. The all important New Orders Index improved slightly from 46.1 to 47.1, The Employment Index also improved slightly from 43.9 to 44.4. The Prices Index, on the other hand, jumped sharply from 48.3 to 54.8. The Prices Index has been slightly accelerating for the past few months, with the exception of the previous month of September when it had dipped sharply into contraction territory. The New Export Orders Index at 45.5 also continues to be in contraction territory. Overall, the PMI continues to show that the manufacturing sector continues to be in contraction. However, the latest numbers did not show any material deterioration from the recent months.    

1st Oct 2024

Key takeaway: The ISM Manufacturing PMI was flat at 47.2% in September – same as the previous month of July. The sector continues to be in contraction for the 6th consecutive month and the 22nd month in the past 23 months. The all important New Orders Index at 46.1 continues to be in contraction territory, though it was 1.5% above the previous month of August. One of the most important points in today’s release was the sharp drop in the Employment Index from 46.0 to 43.9. The survey indicated companies continued to right size their workforce. The Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast also showed a drop in the Q3 GDP forecast from 3.1% to 2.5%. The Prices Index went into contraction territory for the first time in 2024 registering 48.3%, down 5.7% from the previous month of August   

3rd Sep 2024

Key takeaway: The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered a slight increase from 46.8% in July to 47.2% in August, up 0.4%. Despite the small increase, the key point to note was that the reading continues to be in contractionary territory and was also lower than consensus estimates. This was the fifth consecutive month that the headline number is below the key mark of 50% which demarcates expansion and contraction. It is also key to remember that barring March 2024, the US Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for 21 months. The key New Orders Index fell further from 47.4% to 44.6%. The Production Index fell as well. The Employment Index registered a marginal rise – but not enough to offset the overall weak data we have been seeing in jobs. Finally, the Prices Index registered a small rise as well.    

1st Aug 2024

Key takeaway: The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered a sharp fall from 48.5% in June to 46.8% in July, down 1.7%. This was the fourth consecutive month that the headline number is below the key mark of 50% which demarcates expansion and contraction. It is also key to remember that barring March 2024, the US Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for 20 months. On the balance, the latest Manufacturing PMI was a disappointing one and continues the string of weak economic data of late. The key New Orders Index fell 1.9% from 49.3% to 47.4%. The Production Index fell as well. Most importantly though, the Employment Index registered a large drop of 5.9%, from 49.3% to 43.4%. This comes on the back of a general weakening trend in jobs data. After a few months of green shoots appearing in the US manufacturing landscape, both hard data and survey data have been soft for a few months now.   

1st Jul 2024

Key takeaway: The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered a modest fall from 48.7% in May to 48.5% in June, down just 0.2%. However, the key point to note was that this was the third consecutive month that the headline number is below the key mark of 50% which demarcates expansion and contraction. It is also key to remember that barring March 2024, the US Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for 19 months. On the balance, the latest Manufacturing PMI was a disappointing one and continues the string of weak economic data of late. The Employment and Production Index fell by 1.8 and 1.7% respectively. Both fell into contraction territory compared to last month. Customer Inventories declined compared to the prior month. And New Export Orders, an indicator of overseas demand for US goods, also slipped from 50.6 to 48.8. The Prices Index, while still above 50 which indicates expansion, also declined sharply from 57.0 to 52.1 – a disinflationary sign. The only positive in the latest release was an increase of 3.9% in the key New Orders Inde from 45.4 to 49.3 – though still in contraction territory. After a few months of green shoots appearing in the US manufacturing landscape, both hard data and survey data have been soft of late. Surprisingly, bond yields are sharply up today.   

3rd Jun 2024

Key takeaway: The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered a modest fall from 49.2% in April to 48.7% in May, down 0.5%. This is the second consecutive month that the headline number is below the key mark of 50% which demarcates expansion and contraction. It is also key to remember that barring March 2024, the US Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for 18 months. The latest month’s PMI report was worse than consensus expectations and also significantly worse than the previous month. The all-important Index for New Orders fell sharply from 49.1 in April to 45.4 in May. The Production Index also declined from 51.3 to 50.2 in May, although it still marginally remains in expansion territory. Most other sub-indexes also moved unfavourably in May. However, the only positive was that the Employment Index registered 51.1, up 2.5% from April’s figure of 48.6. The Prices Index also  fell from 60.9 to 57 in May. However, even at 57.0 it remains relatively high and reflective of continued inflationary pressures in manufacturing. It has also been trending upwards since bottoming in mid 2023. On the balance, the latest Manufacturing PMI report was a weak one, especially when compared to recent months’ data. The recently release Chicago PMI had registered a fall to levels consistent with those seen in past recessions of 2008 and 2001. The softer PMI along with other economic indicators which have turned softish in the past few weeks caused yields to move lower and the 10 year is back near 4.4%.  

1st May 2024

Key takeaway: The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 49.2% in April, down 1.1% from the 50.3% recorded in March. Given the headline number was below the key mark of 50%, it indicates that the US manufacturing sector dropped back into contractionary territory after growing in March for the first time since September 2022. Digging deeper though, it was not as bad a report. Overall demand improvement in the US manufacturing sector slowed. The key new orders index moved from from 51.4 to 49.1, back into contraction territory. On the other had Production remained positive even though the Index moved down from 54.6 in March to 51.3 in April. New export orders also weakened to 48.7 after a couple of months in expansion territory. On the positive side employment improved from 47.4 to 48.6. The final key point to note is the large jump in the Prices Index from 55.8% in March to 60.9% in April. The Price Index has seen sharp jumps since the start of 2024 and that does not bode well from an inflation and higher-for-longer rates perspective. Manufacturing still seems to have bottomed after a weak 2023. Employment in manufacturing has held up well. But recent price pressures indicative in the PMIs are not a good sign. 

1st Apr 2024

Key takeaway: So the downbeat report from last month was an exception after all! Just to rewind – the broad story in recent months has been a resurgence in manufacturing. Both ISM and S&P PMIs have been indicating a resurgence (or at the minimum a bottoming) in US manufacturing. The February ISM report on manufacturing had put some doubt in market participants minds with fairly downbeat data on both, headline index as well as the sub-indexes. However, the latest PMI data for March strongly reaffirms the manufacturing resurgence story. The headline index at 50.3 is the first expansionary (above 50.0) reading since October 2022. That is a key threshold! Little surprise that 10 year note yields are up a massive 10 basis points today morning. The New Orders Index also moved back into positive territory  at 51.4, 2.2 percentage points above 49.2 recorded in February. Similarly the Employment Index also gained steam from 45.9 to 47.4. The New Export Orders Index also recorded a print above 50.0. In summary, this was a quite strong ISM print. The only negative in the report was an acceleration in the Prices Index – from 52.5 to 55.8 – an indication of continuing inflationary pressures.  

1st Mar 2024

Key takeaway: This was a key Manufacturing PMI report. Against the recent tide and consensus expectations, the ISM Manufacturing PMI report was significantly negative on most parameters. To start with, headline PMI fell from 49.1 in January to 47.8 in February. Consensus expectation was for a small rise to 49.5. However, the key point to understand is whether this is an exception or a change of trend. The all important New Orders Index had crossed the 50 level in January – which is the differentiating mark between contraction and expansion. The rise of the index above 50 in January 2024 was the first since August 2022. The New Orders Index fell from 52.5 in January to 49.2 in February. Hence it is key to observe if we cross 50 back again next month or sink deeper down on this New Orders Index. Similar to the New Orders Index, most indexes including Production, Prices and Employment registered declines from the previous month of January. Yields moved sharply lower in response to this worse-than-expected PMI report. The last point to note is that while the ISM and S&P PMIs do differ a lot, generally speaking even the S&P PMI data has been indicative of a turnaround in manufacturing. It will hence be key to review that data point as well when the flash March numbers come out around the 3rd week of March.  

1st Feb 2024

Key takeaway: ISM Manufacturing PMI for January posted a solid increase at 49.1% from 47.1% in December. Although the headline reading is still below 50 and hence in a contractionary environment, it is very important to note that Manufacturing PMIs have been indicating a bottom if not a turnaround for some months now. Most importantly, the New Orders index moved into expansion territory increasing from 47.0 in December to 52.5 in January. The Production Index also moved from 49.9 to 50.4 indicating growing output in manufacturing. The Supplier Deliveries Index moved 2.1 points higher from 47.0 to 49.1 indicating a slower change of pace in deliveries compared to the previous month but still below 50 and hence indicating faster deliveries overall. There were a few negative points in the report though. The Prices Paid Index has been on an increasing trend since mid 2023. The key story in the November PMI had been the sharp increase in the Prices Paid Index by 4.8 points to 49.9. The Prices paid Index then fell back down to 45.2 in December alleviating concerns about a re-acceleration in inflation. However, it was back up to 52.9 in January. Also it is key to note that while the ISM and S&P PMIs do differ a lot, the S&P PMIs have also been indicating a pick up back in raw material prices. The New Export Order Index fell from 49.9 to 45.2  indicating a continued story of solid US growth but weak global growth.    

3rd Jan 2024

Key takeaway: The ISM Manufacturing PMI for December at 47.4 was slightly up from November’s 46.7. Manufacturing in the US had seen a little bit of a rebound over the past few months based on various PMI data. That trend had taken a bit of a breather in October when headline PMI had fallen from 49.0 in September to 46.7 in October. While the December reading is back up again, the increase is only marginal. ISM states that a PMI over 48.7, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion in the overall economy. So after a very short period above this 48.7 mark, the headline PMI is back in a territory that indicates contraction in the overall economy. However, since many months now, the indication seems to be that the downturn in manufacturing has stalled and we are likely to gradually see an expansion in Q1 2024. The New Orders index remained in contraction territory at 47.1 was lower than 48.3 recorded in November. The key story in the November PMI had been the sharp increase in the Prices Paid Index by 4.8 points to 49.9. The Prices paid Index was back down to 45.2 in December alleviating concerns about a re-acceleration in inflation. However, while the ISM and S&P PMIs do differ a lot, it is key to note that the S&P PMIs have also been indicating a pick up back in raw material prices. Overall, while demand still remains soft, the manufacturing sector seems to have the capacity to meet incremental demand and seems poised for a recovery. The last key point to note is that the Employment Index was up 2.3% from 45.8 in November to 48.1 in December. The S&P PMI report on the other hand suggested a continued shrinkage of jobs in the US manufacturing sector.   

1st Dec 2023

Key takeaway: The ISM Manufacturing PMI for November at 46.7 was mostly unchanged from October. Manufacturing in the US had seen a little bit of a rebound over the past few months based on various PMI data. That trend had taken a bit of a breather in October when headline PMI had fallen from 49.0 in September to 46.7 in October. ISM states that a PMI over 48.7, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion in the overall economy. So after a very short period above this 48.7 mark, the headline PMI was back in a territory that indicates contraction in the overall economy. However, since many months now, the indication seems to be that the downturn in manufacturing has stalled and we are likely to gradually see an expansion in Q1 2024. The New Orders index remained in contraction territory at 48.3, but still was 2.8% higher than the 45.5 recorded in October. The Prices Index was also higher by 4.8 points to 49.9. While demand still remains soft, the manufacturing sector seems to have the capacity to meet incremental demand and seems poised for a recovery. The last key point to note is that the Employment Index was down 1% from 46.8 in October to 45.8 in November. Consistent with the S&P PMI report, there are more visible indicators from the PMIs of accelerating layoffs (but not yet mass scale).   

1st Nov 2023

Key takeaway: Manufacturing in the US had seen a little bit of a rebound over the past few months based on various PMI data. That trend took a bit of a breather in October. Headline PMI fell from 49.0 in September to 46.7 in October. The report states that a manufacturing PMI over 48.7, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion in the overall economy. So after a very short period above this 48.7 mark, the headline PMI was back in a territory that indicates contraction in the overall economy. The New Orders index also decreased from 49.2 in September to 45.5 in October. Similarly, the production index moved lower from 52.5 to 50.4. However, the most important reading in this months PMI was a fairly sharp drop in the Employment Index from 51.2 to 46.8. After about 12-18 months of monetary policy tightening the key focus is now on whether unemployment starts to increase. Any leading indications of a softer employment picture will be of keen importance to market participants.  

2nd Oct 2023

Key takeaway: The key takeaway from the ISM manufacturing PMI data over the past few months has been that while manufacturing continues to be in contraction (like it has been for the past year), the contraction seems to have bottomed out. The headline PMI and most sub indexes have been range bound for the past few months. That idea was further reinforced with the latest September release today. While economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted for the 11th consecutive month, the manufacturing PMI recorded an improvement over last month, from 47.6 in August to 49.0 in September. The ISM release also made an interesting comment, In their view, a manufacturing PMI over 48.7, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion in the overall economy. The New Orders index also improved from 46.8 in August to 49.2 in September. The production index moved into expansion territory above 50. And the Prices Paid index moved down from 48.4 in August to 43.8 in September. Overall this was a positive manufacturing PMI report. However, equity markets continued their bearish ongoing sentiment of the past few weeks even after a relatively positive ISM report.   

1st Sep 2023

Key takeaway: The latest August ISM Manufacturing headline PMI was not significantly different from last month’s figure (47.6 in August vs 46.4 in July). The key point to note is that while manufacturing still continues to be in contraction (like it has been for the past year), the contraction seems to have bottomed out. The headline PMI and most sub indexes have been range bound for the past few months. The all important New Order Index continued to be in contractionary territory at 46.8 – 0.5% lower than 47.3 recorded in July. One noteworthy point was the Prices Paid Index climbed up sharply from 42.6 in July to 48.4 in August. This can signify price stability, but any increase in input prices has the potential to translate into downstream inflationary impact. Lastly, the Employment Index had recorded a sharp fall last month – from 48.1 in June to 44.4 in July. This sub index was back up at 48.5 in August. The Employment Index has consistently held up even in the face of other Manufacturing PMI Indexes deteriorating over the past 12 months. 

1st Aug 2023

Key takeaway: The latest July ISM headline PMI moved marginally up to 46.4 from 46.0 in June. The first point to reiterate is that the US manufacturing sector continues to be in contractionary territory. This is the 9th month in a row that ISM Manufacturing PMI has printed below 50. i.e. in contractionary territory. However, similar to the headline PMI number, almost all sub-indexes recorded a slight improvement over the past month but yet were all in contractionary territory. The key New Orders Index came in at 47.3%, 1.7% over last month’s 45.6. The Production Index, Prices Paid Index, Backlog of Orders Index – all recorded a slight improvement from the previous month. However, the most important takeaway from this latest PMI release was the sharp fall in the Employment Index – from 48.1 in June to 44.4 in July. The Employment Index has consistently held up even in the face of other Manufacturing PMI Indexes deteriorating over the past 12 months. We will also get some additional data this Friday (4th Aug) when the latest NFP report is released.   

3rd Jul 2023

Key takeaway: The latest ISM June Manufacturing PMI was interesting and noteworthy to say the least. The first point to reiterate is that the US manufacturing sector continues to be in contractionary territory. This is the 8th month in a row that ISM Manufacturing PMI has printed below 50. i.e. in contractionary territory. The overall story continues to be one of 2 facets – a downdrift in manufacturing and resilience in services. While the overall ISM Manufacturing PMI number had maintained a steady contractionary picture since the start of the year, the S&P manufacturing PMI – in contrast – had shows signs of bottoming in manufacturing activity. However, the recent S&P flash manufacturing PMI broke that trend and now both PMIs are firmly in contractionary territory. The second key point to note was the continued weakness in New Orders (although that sub index improved a bit from 42.6 in May to 45.6 in Jun). Last month, the Production sub-index had registered an increase of 2.2% from 48.9 to 51.1 which probably indicated that manufacturers were working on current orders and fulfilling back logs, while future business remained soft and uncertain. The June Production sub index fell back from 51.1 to 46.7. The third key point to note was that the Prices sub-index had registered a large increase over the past 3 months. That increase had moderated in May coming down from 53.2 to 44.2. In a welcome sign, prices further moderated with the sub index coming down to 41.8 in June. Lastly, employment which has remained the most resilient of all economic indicators, fell in June to a contractionary number of 48.1 

1st Jun 2023

Key takeaway: The US manufacturing sector continues to be in contractionary territory. This is the 7th month in a row that ISM Manufacturing PMI has printed below 50. i.e. in contractionary territory. However, the overall economic picture has been far more nuanced. Firstly, services PMI has been a complete contrast to manufacturing PMI. i.e. still holding up and mostly in expansion territory. Second, the S&P manufacturing PMI has actually been on an uptrend since the start of the year. The ISM manufacturing PMI data for May was also quite nuanced. New Orders, which are a key metric in PMI surveys, fell 3.1% from 45.7 to 42.6. On the other hand, the Production sub-index registered an increase of 2.2% from 48.9 to 51.1. This could mean manufacturers working on current orders and fulfilling back logs, while future business remains soft and uncertain. The Prices sub-index had registered a large increase over the past 3 months. That increase moderated a bit with the Prices sub index coming down from 53.2 to 44.2. Lastly, employment still remained strong – the sub-index expanding from 50.2 to 51.4.  

1st May 2023

Key takeaway: The US manufacturing sector continues to be in contractionary territory. However, the ISM manufacturing PMI for April registered a slower pace of manufacturing contraction compared to March. Taken together with the S&P Manufacturing PMI – which has been in a slight upward trend since the start of the year – the slight improvement in the ISM number holds even more significance. 2023 is widely expected to be a recession year. But it has been a slow burn on economic data pointing to a recession. Manufacturing, which accounts for 12% of the US economy, is no different story. The sub-indexes in the April PMI also registered improvements overall. Production improved from 47.8 to 48.9. New Orders improved 1.4 points from 44.3 to 45.7. The Employment sub-index elevated into expansionary territory from 46.9 to 50.2. However, the most notable of them all was the Prices Paid sub-index, which registered a large 4 point gain from 49.2 to 53.2. This increase in the Prices Paid Index has been a feature since the start of the year and can be taken as a leading indicator for upcoming PPI inflation.  

3rd Apr 2023

Key takeaway: The US manufacturing sector continues to be in contractionary territory. After 30 months of continuous expansion, this was the 5th month of ISM Manufacturing PMI contraction in the US. Headline PMI dropped from 47.7 in Feb to 46.3 in Mar. One of the key aspects of the previous month’s PMI data had been the sharp rise in Priced Paid Index from 44.5 to 51.3. This Prices Paid Index moved back down below 50 dropping to 49.2 in Mar. It will be key to watch if the prices data from manufacturing PMI continues its downward trend indicating reducing future CPI pressures. Also new orders fell further sharply into contraction territory from 47.0 to 44.3. Lastly, another key point to note was the Inventories sub index fell from 50.1 to 47.5. Manufacturing inventories which have consistently been higher are gradually coming down (an indication of future impact of inventory on GDP calculations for 2H 2023). 

1st Mar 2023

Key takeaway: It wasn’t a marked change in the US PMI reading for Feb 2023. Headline PMI improved from 47.4 in Jan to 47.7 in Feb. Still in contractionary territory – but a mild improvement in the pace of contraction. After 30 months of continuous expansion, this is the 4th month of ISM PMI contraction in the US. However, the key story for Feb PMI was not in the headline number. It was buried in the Priced Paid Index. Which jumped a huge 6.8% from 44.5 to 51.3. It is even more important to note that January itself was a large jump from December (39.4 to 44.5)! There has been substantial debate amongst economists on the impact of the unusually warm weather in the US in January on the good economic data that came out for the month. However, when you get 2 continuous months of price increases in the PMI – coupled with still elevated PPI inflation – it is hard to discard January numbers as an exception. All eyes to the ISM Services PMI next. 

1st Feb 2023

Key takeaway: Economic activity in the US manufacturing sector contracted in Jan 2023 for the third month in a row. This comes after a period of 28 consecutive months of growth. Manufacturing PMI at 47.4 was lower than last month’s 48.4 and also lower than consensus of 48.0. However, there were a few more key points to note.  Most importantly, the Prices sub-index increased from 39.4 in Dec to 44.5 in Jan – a 5-point gain. While the sub-index still indicates decreasing prices, the pace of price decrease was substantially lower according to the survey. According to ISM, a Price Index above 52.9 over time is consistent with an increase in PPI for Intermediate materials. While the index is much below 52.9, it is markedly higher than December. Secondly, the employment sub-index was once again in expansion territory (50.6). The survey indicated companies still willing to hire and looking to retain workforce in anticipation of robust demand. This does not bode well for the labour market tightness story. Lastly, the Imports sub-index also increased to 47.8 in Jan from 45.1 in Dec – indicating improving import volume. 

4th Jan 2023

Key takeaway: One month doesn’t make a trend, but two makes the case a bit more ! The ISM manufacturing index printed in negative (contraction) territory for the second month in a row! Remember this followed after a period of 29 consecutive months of growth. PMIs are very good leading indicators and a continued contraction in manufacturing would suggest growing economic weakness. The most important New Orders Index contracted for the 4th month in a row. Still not as deep as previous recessions – but trending downwards! Almost every other sub index was also in contractionary territory. On the positive front, the prices sub index also continued its downward march The Prices sub index fell sharply from 43.0 to 39.4 – providing further solid evidence of easing price pressures . Lastly, the employment sub index – while softer – still seems to be holding up well (at 51.4). And this data point is also consistent with the overall jobs / employment numbers that we have seen throughout the year.

1st Dec 2022

Key takeaway: Finally, an ISM manufacturing print that is in contraction territory! After 29 consecutive months of expansion! The ISM PMI Index has been one of the most resilient data points this year that lent credence to a soft landing narrative. That has started to fade away now. The overall index fell from 50.2 to 49.0. New orders contracted for a third month in a row – at 47.2. The Unemployment sub-index which had also held up so far, fell below 50 to 48.4. In line with contracting new orders, backlogs of orders also fell significantly from 45.3 to 40.0. The big upside in this report that continued from October was a decline in the Prices sub-index which fell sharply to 43.0 from 46.6 providing further solid evidence of easing price pressures. Supplier deliveries have also started accelerating indicating improvements in supply chain.

1st Nov 2022

Key takeaway: The trend lower in ISM Manufacturing continued in October. The overall index fell from 50.9 to 50.2. But importantly the index is still in expansion territory (the 29th consecutive month of growth!). New order contracted similar to September – but they the sub-index at 49.2 was 2.1 points higher than September’s 47.1. The big upside in this report was the Prices sub-index fell sharply to 46.6 from 51.7 providing solid evidence of easing price pressures. Supplier deliveries have also started accelerating indicating improvements in supply chain. Unfortunately, markets yesterday chose to focus on the fact that the headline indicator has not fallen significantly, that it beat expectations and that the employment sub-index is still strong. Combine that with a still massive JOLTs number and you can understand why the S&P fell 1.5% within minutes of these two numbers coming out yesterday morning!

3rd Oct 2022

Key takeaway: The ISM Manufacturing Report had steadfastly remained solid for the past several months when a lot of other economic and market indicators were indicating recession risks ahead. This ISM report was significantly less than stellar. New orders are contracting again, after having expanded in July. New export orders continued contracting. The Employment Index has returned to contraction. Backlog of Orders index is also approaching contraction. Input prices are expectedly coming off. Finally, the overall index is only marginally in expansion territory.

1st Sep 2022

Key takeaway: Firstly, once again the ISM Manufacturing PMI differed a bit from the S&P Global PMI. Second, in many ways, this was a stellar report and similar to last month, this once again lends support to a “softer landing” thesis. New orders, one of the most important factor in PMI, expanded again in August, after having declined in July. The surveys still show good hiring and no real indications of layoffs. And finally, input prices have continued their downward trend suggesting easing inflationary pressures.

1st Aug 2022

Key takeaway: It may seem a bit repetitive to track both the S&P Global and ISM PMIs. But there is always some good info to screen. On the surface, it seems that the ISM PMI deviates significantly from the S&P Global PMI with the ISM reading still showing manufacturing expansion – for the 26th month in a row. But some of the sub-indices convey a similar message. Most importantly, new orders contracted 2nd month in a row. Raw material prices continue to abate. There are some differences as well. While the ISM employment sub-index is also contractionary, the ISM commentary did not suggest any layoffs or cost cutting initiatives, like the S&P Global PMI. In fact, firms still struggled to fill positions. On the balance though, there is little doubt that US PMIs are trending lower.

1st July 2022

Key takeaway: The most important takeaway from the ISM PMI is the contraction in new orders ! In yet another clear sign of slowdown, the New Orders Index fell into contractionary territory and the New Export Orders Index fell further from the previous month. The Prices Index and Employment Index both slowed down in a further indication of abating price pressures and waning labour tightness. Overall the PMI was much worse than consensus estimates. When viewed with the other recent data releases – eg. the fall in real consumption in May and deep downward revisions to consumption data in 1Q, the weakness of the overall economy and the likelihood of another negative GDP print in Q2 seems much more plausible.   

1st June 2022

Key takeaway: Similar the the recently released Markit Manufacturing PMI, while a reading above 50 still suggests expansion, the trend is clearly downwards. One interesting point to note was that the survey continued to show that customer inventories are still running low. Which is contrary to some of the recent inventory pile up indications from other statistics. In summary, manufacturing is still looking strong, new orders and new business continues to grow and input prices continue to soar.  

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index Report on Business is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies. The PMI is a composite index based on seasonally adjusted diffusion indices for five indicators with varying weights: New Orders 30%, Production 25%, Employment 20%, Supplier Deliveries 15% and Inventories 10%.

ISM Manufacturing PMI