US Macro Updates

The One Stop Portal for US Macroeconomic Data. Simplified and Summarized! 

We simplify and summarize key data so that you don’t have to spend hours reading confusing and long media releases. Read key economic releases and major events here in under 2 minutes. And we will explain the key takeaway for you. Stay informed and form a robust view on macroeconomic matters to aid your successful investment decisions

1st May 2024

ADP Non Farm Employment Change

Key takeaway: Private sector employment increased by a sizeable 192K jobs in April. Consensus expectations were for an increase of 179K. After a few soft prints in the 4th quarter of 2023, we have mostly continued to see robust data out of the ADP jobs report. This continues to indicate a tight labour market and also maintains upward pressure on rates. US Treasury yields have spiked up solidly in the recent months on the back of some robust economic data. Numbers coming out of the ADP report continue to be strong and contribute further to the yield trend. Once again, similar to previous months, Leisure and Hospitality continues to add significant number of jobs (56K in April). This was the industry that bore the biggest brunt of the pandemic shut downs and on the flip side, it has also been the industry that has posted the biggest job gains in the past 2 years. Goods producing sector saw an increase of 47K jobs and Service producing industries saw an increase of 145K jobs – both numbers similar to last month. Annual pay was up 5.0% y-o-y. This annual pay growth rate has also been on a continual declining trend, however it still remains higher than pre-pandemic levels.  

3rd Apr 2024

Key takeaway: Private sector employment increased by a sizeable 184K jobs in March. Consensus expectations were for an increase of 148K. After a few soft prints in the 4th quarter of 2023, we have mostly continued to see robust data out of the ADP jobs report. This continues to indicate a tight labour market and also maintains upward pressure on rates. US Treasury yields have spiked up solidly in the recent weeks on the back of robust economic data. The ADP report continues that trend. Once again, similar to previous months, Leisure and Hospitality continues to add significant number of jobs (63K in March). This was the industry that bore the biggest brunt of the pandemic shut downs and on the flip side, it has also been the industry that has posted the biggest job gains in the past 2 years. Goods producing sector saw an increase of 42K jobs and Service producing industries saw an increase of 142K jobs. Annual pay was up 5.1% y-o-y. This annual pay growth rate has also been on a continual declining trend, however it still remains higher than pre-pandemic levels.  

6th Mar 2024

Key takeaway: Private sector employment increased by a 140K jobs in February Consensus expectations were for an increase of 149K. The report was mostly in line with consensus. The 10 year treasury yield initially moved higher when the report was released. However, yields have generally been trending lower in the past few days despite fairly decent economic data. In fact the 2 year – 10 year spread has been flattening since Jan 25th 2024. In other words, the curve is getting more inverted. There were no major surprises in the individual industry breakdown of jobs in the ADP report either. Leisure and Hospitality continues to be an interesting sector to watch. L&H had borne the major brunt of the pandemic impact. As per ADP numbers, employment in L&H stood at approximately 15.8mn prior to the pandemic and reached a low of 12.5mn during the pandemic – a drop of more than 3mn. Post the pandemic, most of the job gains were seen in the L&H space as the services sector sprung back to normalcy. L&H job creation went negative in November for the first time since the pandemic with a loss of 7K jobs! However, L&H jobs were back up by 59K in December, 28K in January and 41K in February. Lastly, the February report also suggested that annual pay was up 5.1% y-o-y. This annual pay growth rate has also been on a continual declining trend, however it still remains higher than pre-pandemic levels.  

31st Jan 2024

Key takeaway: Private sector employment increased by a 107K jobs in January. Consensus expectations were for an increase of 145K. The report was softer than the market expected. The fact that it came on Fed announcement day made it even more interesting. In recent times, we have seen both bond yields and equity prices demonstrate more-than-normal volatility to economic news and events. Today was no exception. Treasury yields fell sharply as the market absorbed some of the bearish data prints on ADP, ECI and job cut announcements. However, it might be prudent to not read too much into one data point. It is worth noting that ADP jobs had increased for 4 months in a row prior to this print. Leisure and Hospitality continues to be an interesting sector to watch. L&H had borne the major brunt of the pandemic impact. As per ADP numbers, employment in L&H stood at approximately 15.8mn prior to the pandemic and reached a low of 12.5mn during the pandemic – a drop of more than 3mn. Post the pandemic, most of the job gains were seen in the L&H space as the services sector sprung back to normalcy. L&H job creation went negative in November for the first time since the pandemic with a loss of 7K jobs! However, L&H jobs were back up by 59K in December and 28K in January. Lastly, the January report also suggested that annual pay was up 5.2% y-o-y. This annual pay growth rate has also been on a continual declining trend.    

4th Jan 2024

Key takeaway: Private sector employment increased by a very substantial 164K jobs in December. Consensus expectations were for an increase of 115K. Treasury yields have fallen significantly over the past 2 months. A lot of that move presumes that inflation is declining and well under control and the jobs market is loosening up. Hence any large spike in the ADP or NFP jobs report has the effect of immediately spiking bond yields higher. That is what we saw today as well with an ADP print that is well above consensus expectations. It is also worth noting that ADP jobs have increased for the 4th month in a row. The most interesting read of last month’s ADP data came from the Leisure and Hospitality space. L&H had borne the major brunt of the pandemic impact. As per ADP numbers, employment in L&H stood at approximately 15.8mn prior to the pandemic and reached a low of 12.5mn during the pandemic – a drop of more than 3mn. Post the pandemic, most of the job gains were seen in the L&H space as the services sector sprung back to normalcy. L&H job creation went negative in November for the first time since the pandemic with a loss of 7K jobs! However, L&H jobs were back up by 59K in the latest December print. Lastly, the December report also suggested that annual pay was up 5.4% y-o-y. This annual pay growth rate has also been on a continual declining trend.    

6th Dec 2023

Key takeaway: Private sector employment increased by 103K jobs in November. Consensus expectations were for an increase of 130K. Once again, for the second month in a row, the ADP job numbers surprised on the downside. The market perceived this as a strong sign of slowing labour demand (coupled with the sharp fall in October job openings data from a few days back) and consequently a slowing economy. Treasury yields moved lower in immediate response and now stand almost a 1% point lower that the cycle high on the 10 year. The most interesting read of the ADP data came from the Leisure and Hospitality space. L&H had borne the major brunt of the pandemic impact. As per ADP numbers, employment in L&H stood at approximately 15.8mn prior to the pandemic and reached a low of 12.5mn during the pandemic – a drop of more than 3mn. Post the pandemic, most of the job gains were seen in the L&H space as the services sector sprung back to normalcy. L&H job creation went negative in November for the first time since the pandemic with a loss of 7K jobs!The November report also suggested that annual pay was up 5.6% y-o-y. This annual pay growth rate has also been on a continual declining trend.    

1st Nov 2023

Key takeaway: Private sector employment increased by 113K jobs in October. Consensus expectations were for an increase of 150K. This was clearly a downside surprise to the market. However, the market often tends to pay more attention to the BLS non-farm payroll report (that comes out this Friday). Secondly, the ADP employment data had surprised to the downside even last month. However, NFP data for September came at a whopping 336K jobs. Nonetheless, the combination of a lower ADP print and other key events / indicators of the same day (the Fed meeting as well as the Treasury refunding announcement), mostly had the effect of dragging long bond yields lower. Lastly, job openings indicated by the JOLTS data were still up – which still indicates a tight labour market. The report also suggested that annual pay, similar to last month’s data, was up 5.7% y-o-y – a figure too high from an inflation persepctive.   

4th Oct 2023

Key takeaway: Private sector employment increased by 89K jobs in September. Consensus expectations were for an increase of 153K. This was clearly a downside surprise to the market. While one data point does not provide sufficient evidence of a slowdown in the job market (especially given that JOLTS data a couple of days back surprised to the upside), it came on the back of a monster rally in treasury yields over the past few weeks. That was sufficient ammunition for markets to tone down their expectations and take long term treasury yields a bit lower from the recent highs. It is also key to remember that the ADP report and the official government jobs data (NFP – coming this Friday) employ different methodologies and the underlying job creation numbers reported by both sources can vary significantly. However, the key point underlying data from both sources remains that the job market, even though easing now, remains tight overall and keeps the Fed on its toes for fear of a wage price spiral. The report also suggested that annual pay, similar to last month’s data, was up 5.9% y-o-y – a figure too high from an inflation persepctive.   

30th Aug 2023

Key takeaway: Private sector employment increased by 177K jobs in August. Consensus expectations were for an increase of 195K. The modest August print of 177K jobs in the ADP report comes on the back of previous month’s massive 324K print. The ADP report and the official government jobs data (NFP) employ different methodologies and the underlying job creation numbers reported by both sources can vary significantly. However, the key point underlying data from both sources remains that the job market, even though easing now, remains tight overall and keeps the Fed on its toes for fear of a wage price spiral. The report also suggested that annual pay was up 5.9% y-o-y – a figure too high from an inflation persepctive.   

2nd Aug 2023

Key takeaway: Private sector employment increased by a massive 324K jobs in July. Consensus expectations were for an increase of 189K. This continues the unprecedented trend of upside surprises on jobs data. Consider this – the ADP jobs data has surprised markets on the upside for 8 out of the past 12 months! Most of the jobs were added in the Leisure and Hospitality sector (+201K jobs). US Treasury yields were higher across the board in response today. However, that might also have been attributable to Fitch’s downgrade of US credit rating to AA+ today. Median change in annual pay was an elevated 6.2% for job-stayers and 10.2% for job-changers. The June total of jobs added was revised from 497,000 to 455,000.  

The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

ADP Research Institute