US Macro Updates

The One Stop Portal for US Macroeconomic Data. Simplified and Summarized! 

We simplify and summarize key data so that you don’t have to spend hours reading confusing and long media releases. Read key economic releases and major events here in under 2 minutes. And we will explain the key takeaway for you. Stay informed and form a robust view on macroeconomic matters to aid your successful investment decisions

Existing Home Sales

13th Aug 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: Existing home sales represent the dominant share of total housing market transactions, typically accounting for roughly 85 to 90 percent of all home sales activity, making this series a critical barometer of broader housing market health and consumer balance sheet conditions. The persistent mortgage lock-in effect continues to weigh heavily on inventory, as millions of homeowners holding sub-4 percent mortgages remain reluctant to sell and assume new financing at materially higher rates, structurally constraining the supply of homes available to prospective buyers. Affordability pressures compound this dynamic, with elevated mortgage rates and still-high home prices squeezing purchasing power and dampening demand from would-be buyers, creating a market characterized by low turnover on both the supply and demand side. Over the past 12 to 24 months, existing home sales have broadly oscillated in a historically subdued range, failing to mount a sustained recovery and reflecting an uneasy equilibrium between sellers anchored by favorable legacy financing and buyers priced out by current conditions. The July 2026 reading of 4060 thousand units, a decline of 1.69 percent month over month, reinforces that the market has not yet found a catalyst to break meaningfully higher. Sluggish transaction volumes have direct implications for consumer wealth, as reduced turnover slows the realization of home equity gains and dampens associated spending on furniture, renovations, and related services. Until affordability improves meaningfully through either lower mortgage rates or price corrections, the existing home sales market is likely to remain under pressure.

Existing Home Sales decreased 1.69% in Jul to 4060mn.

9th Jul 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: Existing home sales represent the dominant share of total housing market activity, typically accounting for roughly 85 to 90 percent of all residential transactions, making this series a critical barometer of broader housing market health. The persistent mortgage lock-in effect continues to suppress inventory, as homeowners who secured historically low rates during 2020 and 2021 remain reluctant to sell and take on significantly higher borrowing costs in today’s environment. Elevated mortgage rates combined with stretched home prices have kept affordability near multi-decade lows, dampening buyer demand even as some pent-up activity periodically surfaces. Over the past 12 to 24 months, existing home sales have largely traded in a narrow and subdued range, reflecting this structural tension between constrained supply and affordability-limited demand, with only modest oscillations around cyclical lows. The June decline of 2.39 percent suggests that any nascent momentum seen in prior months has struggled to sustain itself against persistent headwinds. This softness in transaction volumes also weighs on consumer wealth indirectly, as reduced turnover limits the price discovery and equity realization that homeowners depend upon. Overall, the data point to a housing market that remains in a period of constrained activity, with a meaningful recovery likely contingent on a sustained easing in financing costs.

Existing Home Sales decreased 2.39% in Jun to 4090mn.

9th Jun 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: Existing home sales represent the dominant share of total housing market transactions, typically accounting for roughly 85 to 90 percent of all home sales activity, making them a critical barometer of broader housing market health and consumer confidence. The persistent mortgage lock-in effect has continued to suppress inventory, as homeowners who secured historically low rates during 2020 and 2021 remain reluctant to sell and take on new mortgages at significantly higher rates, constraining the supply side of the market. Affordability pressures have compounded this dynamic, with elevated mortgage rates and high home prices squeezing potential buyers and keeping transaction volumes well below the peaks observed in 2021. Over the past 12 to 24 months, existing home sales have broadly trended at historically subdued levels, oscillating in a narrow range as the market sought equilibrium between limited supply and restrained demand. The May 2026 reading of 4170 thousand units, representing a 3.22 percent monthly increase, offers an encouraging sign that some thawing may be underway, potentially reflecting modest improvements in rate expectations or sellers gradually adjusting to the new rate environment. This uptick could signal early-stage recovery in housing market liquidity, which would have positive implications for consumer wealth given that residential real estate remains the largest component of household net worth for most Americans. Continued momentum in the months ahead will be key to determining whether this represents a sustained inflection or a temporary seasonal lift.

Existing Home Sales increased 3.22% in May to 4170mn.

11th May 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: Existing home sales represent the dominant share of total housing market transactions, typically accounting for roughly 85 to 90 percent of all home sales activity, making this series a critical barometer of broader housing market health and consumer confidence. The persistent mortgage lock-in effect continues to weigh heavily on inventory, as millions of homeowners who secured historically low rates during 2020 and 2021 remain reluctant to list their properties and take on significantly higher borrowing costs in today’s rate environment. Affordability constraints compound this dynamic, with elevated mortgage rates and still-high home prices squeezing prospective buyers and keeping demand subdued relative to pre-pandemic norms. Over the past 12 to 24 months, existing home sales have broadly oscillated near cycle lows, reflecting a market characterized by thin inventory, hesitant sellers, and rate-sensitive buyers adjusting to a structurally different financing landscape. The April 2026 reading of 4.02 million units, while representing only a modest 0.25 percent monthly gain, offers a tentative signal that the market may be stabilizing after a prolonged period of suppressed transaction volumes. Even marginal improvements in sales activity carry meaningful implications for consumer wealth, as home equity remains the largest single asset on household balance sheets for most Americans. Continued monitoring of this series will be essential in assessing whether this uptick marks the beginning of a broader recovery or simply a temporary fluctuation within a still-constrained market.

Existing Home Sales increased 0.25% in Apr to 4020mn.

Existing Home Sales – April 2026: +0.25% (4,020.000mn)

13th Apr 2026

Key takeaway: The National Association of Realtors released its March 2026 existing home sales data today (April 13), and the numbers pointed to a disappointing start to the spring selling season. Existing home sales fell 3.6% month-on-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million — the lowest in nine months and missing market expectations of 4.06 million units. The pace was the slowest for the month of March since 2009, with sales declining across all four regions. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun attributed the weakness to deteriorating sentiment and labour market softness, noting that lower consumer confidence and softer job growth continue to hold back buyers, while an additional 300,000 to 500,000 homes for sale would be needed to bring the market closer to normal conditions. On inventory and prices, unsold inventory edged up to 1.36 million units — equivalent to 4.1 months of supply — while the median sales price rose 1.4% year-on-year to $408,800, marking the 33rd consecutive month of annual price gains. Reflecting the challenging backdrop, NAR revised its 2026 full-year forecast sharply lower, now expecting only a 4% increase in existing home sales — down from a prior forecast of 14% — citing the rise in mortgage rates since the Iran conflict began, while the new home sales forecast was revised to flat from an earlier projection of a 5% gain. 

10th Mar 2026

Key takeaway: Data released by the National Association of Realtors showed that existing home sales increased by 1.7% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million, partially reversing the 6% decline recorded in January. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 1.4% lower than in February 2025, indicating that overall housing market activity remains subdued relative to a year earlier. Meanwhile, total housing inventory rose to 1.29 million units at the end of the month, representing a 2.4% increase from January and a 4.9% increase compared with a year earlier, equivalent to 3.8 months of supply at the current sales pace. The median existing home price increased by 0.3% compared with a year earlier to $398,000, marking the 32nd consecutive month of annual price increases. Nonetheless, price appreciation has slowed considerably compared to recent past, especially the highs of 2021. Taken together, the latest report suggests that housing market activity improved modestly in February, supported by gradually improving affordability and a modest increase in housing inventory  

12th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales decreased sharply by 8.4% in January to a SA annual rate of 3.91mn. The print was substantially  lower than last month’s revised print of 4.27mn and also lower than consensus expectations. The latest monthly decrease was a reversal of the sharp increase seen in the previous month of December. Overall, EHS continue to languish at multi year lows on account of high mortgage rates and unaffordable home prices. Inventory has been gradually rising but transactions remain low. Total housing inventory at the end of January was down by 0.8% to 1.22mn. This represents a 3.7 months supply based on current sales pace. The median house price for all housing types in January was $396.8K, up 0.9% y-o-y.  

14th Jan 2026

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales increased a sharp 5.1% in December to a SA annual rate of 4.35mn. The print was substantially  higher than last month’s revised print of 4.14mn and also higher than consensus expectations. EHS have been at multi year lows on account of high mortgage rates and unaffordable home prices. At the same time, sellers and buyers are also gradually coming to terms with the higher for longer interest rate environment and pulling the trigger on homes. Considerations apart from mortgage rates are now starting to dominate reasons for moving houses – for instance marriages, children, job related moves, etc. Inventory is hence gradually growing as more sellers list their homes for sale. In this backdrop, we have seen the market shift a bit from a buyers market to a more neutral one over the last few months of 2025. Sellers pulled listings off the market and new listings also decreased in pace. Nonetheless, the sharp increase in Existing home sales in December is surprising. The delayed census bureau data has also shows a modest increase in new home sales in the 4th quarter of 2025. Add to this the latest announcement from POTUS about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buying $200Bn of mortgages. It is little suprise that Home Builder stocks are up ~10% for the week! Total housing inventory at the end of December was sharply down to 1.18mn – down 18% from the previous month. This represents a 3.3 months supply based on current sales pace. The median house price for all housing types in Dece,ber was $405.4K, up 0.4% y-o-y.  

19th Dec 2025

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales increased 0.5% in November to a SA annual rate of 4.13mn. The print was slightly higher than last month’s revised print of 4.11mn and mostly in line with expectations. However, EHS continue to remain at multi year lows. The lacklustre market has mostly been on account of high mortgage rates and unaffordable home prices. At the same time, sellers and buyers are also gradually coming to terms with the higher for longer interest rate environment and pulling the trigger on homes. Considerations apart from mortgage rates are now starting to dominate reasons for moving houses – for instance marriages, children, job related moves, etc. Inventory is hence gradually growing as more sellers list their homes for sale. The rapid price growth witnessed in the 2 years post the pandemic is over. While home prices have not cascaded down nationwide, the growth in prices has tapered off or declined a bit. Moreover some pockets / regions have witnessed sizeable price declines. Total housing inventory at the end of November was 1.43mn – down 5.9% from the previous month. This represents a 4.2 months supply based on current sales pace. The median house price for all housing types in November was $409.2K, up 1.2% y-o-y.  

20th Nov 2025

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales increased 1.2% in October to a SA annual rate of 4.1mn. The print was slightly higher than last month’s print of 4.05mn and mostly in line with expectations. However, EHS continue to remain at multi year lows. The lacklustre market has mostly been on account of high mortgage rates and unaffordable home prices. At the same time, sellers and buyers are also gradually coming to terms with the higher for longer interest rate environment and pulling the trigger on homes. Considerations apart from mortgage rates are now starting to dominate reasons for moving houses – for instance marriages, children, job related moves, etc. Inventory is hence gradually growing as more sellers list their homes for sale. The rapid price growth witnessed in the 2 years post the pandemic is over. While home prices have not cascaded down nationwide, the growth in prices has tapered off or declined a bit. Moreover some pockets / regions have witnessed sizeable price declines. Total housing inventory at the end of September was 1.52mn – down 0.7% from the previous month. This represents a 4.4 months supply based on current sales pace. The median house price for all housing types in October was $415.2K, up 2.1% y-o-y.  

23rd Oct 2025

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales increased 1.5% in September to a SA annual rate of 4.06mn. The print was slightly higher than last month’s print of 4.0mn and mostly in line with expectations. In summary though, EHS continue to remain at multi year lows. The lacklustre market has mostly been on account of high mortgage rates and unaffordable home prices. The economic uncertainty driven by tariffs and global geopolitics is also causing buyers to stay away. At the same time, sellers and buyers are also gradually coming to terms with the higher for longer interest rate environment and pulling the trigger on homes. Considerations apart from mortgage rates are now starting to dominate reasons for moving houses – for instance marriages, children, job related moves, etc. Inventory is hence gradually growing as more sellers list their homes for sale. The rapid price growth witnessed in the 2 years post the pandemic is over. While home prices have not cascaded down nationwide, the growth in prices has tapered off or declined a bit. Moreover some pockets / regions have witnessed sizeable price declines. One of the concerning recent events in the US residential market has been the tapering of new home listings. The pace of seller coming into the market by listing their homes for sales has come off in recent months, though some data indicated that September was an exception with higher number of sellers listing their homes for sale compared to historical trends. Total housing inventory at the end of August was 1.55mn – up 1.3% from the previous month. This represents a 4.6 months supply based on current sales pace. The median house price for all housing types in August was $415K, up 2.1% y-o-y.  

25th Sep 2025

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales decreased 0.2% in August to a SA annual rate of 4.00mn. The print was slightly higher than expectations of 3.96mn. In summary though, EHS continue to remain at multi year lows. The lacklustre market has mostly been on account of high mortgage rates and unaffordable home prices. The economic uncertainty driven by tariffs and global geopolitics is also causing buyers to stay away. At the same time, sellers and buyers are also gradually coming to terms with the higher for longer interest rate environment and pulling the trigger on homes. Considerations apart from mortgage rates are now starting to dominate reasons for moving houses – for instance marriages, children, job related moves, etc. Inventory is hence gradually growing as more sellers list their homes for sale. The rapid price growth witnessed in the 2 years post the pandemic is over. While home prices have not cascaded down nationwide, the growth in prices has tapered off or declined a bit. Moreover some pockets / regions have witnessed sizeable price declines. One of the concerning recent events in the US residential market has been the tapering of new home listings. The pace of seller coming into the market by listing their homes for sales has come off in recent months. Total housing inventory at the end of August was 1.53mn – down 1.3% from the previous month. This represents a 4.6 months supply based on current sales pace. The median house price for all housing types in August was $422.6K, up 2.0% y-o-y.  

21st Aug 2025

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales increased 2.0% in July to a SA annual rate of 4.01mn. The print was also higher than expectations of 3.9mn. However, despite the increase EHS continue to remain at multi year lows. The lacklustre market has mostly been on account of high mortgage rates and unaffordable home prices. The economic uncertainty driven by tariffs and global geopolitics is also causing buyers to stay away. At the same time, sellers and buyers are also gradually coming to terms with the higher for longer interest rate environment and pulling the trigger on homes. Considerations apart from mortgage rates are now starting to dominate reasons for moving houses – for instance marriages, children, job related moves, etc. Inventory is hence gradually growing as more sellers list their homes for sale. The rapid price growth witnessed in the 2 years post the pandemic is over. While home prices have not cascaded down nationwide, the growth in prices has tapered off or declined a bit. Moreover some pockets / regions have witnessed sizeable price declines. Total housing inventory at the end of July was 1.55mn – up 0.6% from the previous month. This represents a 4.6 months supply based on current sales pace. The increase in existing home inventory over the past 2 years coupled with rising home builder inventory is expected to keep a lid on home prices. The median house price for all housing types in June was $422K, up 0.2% y-o-y.  

23rd Jul 2025

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales declined 2.7% in June to a SA annual rate of 3.93mn. The print was also lower than expectations of 4.0mn. EHS continue to remain at multi year lows. The lacklustre market has mostly been on account of high mortgage rates and unaffordable home prices. The economic uncertainty driven by tariffs and global geopolitics is also causing buyers to stay away. At the same time, sellers and buyers are also gradually coming to terms with the higher for longer interest rate environment and pulling the trigger on homes. Considerations apart from mortgage rates are now starting to dominate reasons for moving houses – for instance marriages, children, job related moves, etc. Inventory is hence gradually growing as more sellers list their homes for sale. The rapid price growth witnessed in the 2 years post the pandemic is over. While home prices have not cascaded down nationwide, the growth in prices has tapered off or declined a bit. Moreover some pockets / regions have witnessed sizeable price declines. Total housing inventory at the end of June was 1.53mn – down 0.6% from the previous month. This represents a 4.7 months supply based on current sales pace. The increase in existing home inventory over the past 2 years coupled with rising home builder inventory is expected to keep a lid on home prices. The median house price for all housing types in June was $435.3K, up 2.0% y-o-y.  

23rd Jun 2025

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales rose slightly in May but the overall pace still remained sluggish and the level remains around multi year lows. EHS increased 0.8% in May to a SA annual rate of 4.03mn. The lacklustre market has mostly been on account of high mortgage rates and unaffordable home prices. The economic uncertainty driven by tariffs and global geopolitics is also causing buyers to stay away. At the same time, gradually sellers and buyers are coming to terms with the higher for longer interest rate environment and pulling the trigger on homes. Considerations apart from mortgage rates are now starting to dominate reasons for moving houses – for instance marriages, children, job related moves, etc. Inventory is hence gradually growing as more sellers list their homes for sale. The rapid price growth witnessed in the 2 years post the pandemic is over. While home prices have not cascaded down nationwide, the growth in prices has tapered off or declined a bit. Moreover some pockets / regions have witnessed sizeable price declines. Total housing inventory at the end of May was 1.54mn – up 6% from the previous month. This represents a 4.6 months supply based on current sales pace. The sharp increase in existing home inventory coupled with rising home builder inventory is expected to keep a lid on home prices. The median house price for all housing types in May was $423K, up 1.3% y-o-y.  

22nd May 2025

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales declined 0.5% in April to a SA annual rate of 4.00mn. EHS remain at some of their lowest levels seen in recent years. The lacklustre market has mostly been on account of high mortgage rates and unaffordable home prices. However, sellers and buyers are coming to terms with the higher for longer interest rate environment and pulling the trigger on homes. Considerations apart from mortgage rates are now starting to dominate reasons for moving houses – for instance marriages, children, job related moves, etc. Inventory is hence gradually growing as more sellers list their homes for sale. The rapid price growth witnessed in the 2 years post the pandemic is over. While home prices have not cascaded down nationwide, the growth in prices has tapered off or declined a bit. Moreover some pockets / regions have witnessed sizeable price declines. Total housing inventory at the end of April was 1.45mn – up 9% from the previous month. This represents a 4.4 months supply based on current sales pace. The sharp increase in existing home inventory coupled with rising home builder inventory is expected to keep a lid on home prices. The median house price for all housing types in April was $414K, up 1.8% y-o-y. The median price rose on a m-o-m basis in February, March and April after having been on a decline since June 2024. 

24th Apr 2025

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales declined 5.9% in March to a SA annual rate of 4.02mn. EHS remain at some of their lowest levels seen in recent years. The lacklustre market has mostly been on account of high mortgage rates and unaffordable home prices. However, sellers and buyers are coming to terms with the higher for longer interest rate environment and pulling the trigger on homes. Considerations apart from mortgage rates are now starting to dominate reasons for moving houses – for instance marriages, children, job related moves, etc. Inventory is hence gradually growing as more sellers list their homes for sale. The rapid price growth witnessed in the 2 years post the pandemic is over. While home prices have not cascaded down nationwide, the growth in prices has tapered off or declined a bit. Moreover some pockets / regions have witnessed sizeable price declines. Total housing inventory at the end of March was 1.33mn – up 8.1% from the previous month. This represents a 4.0 months supply based on current sales pace. This was a pretty sharp m-o-m jump in available listings. The median house price for all housing types in March was $403.7K, up 2.7% y-o-y. The median price rose on a m-o-m basis in February and March after having been on a decline since June 2024. 

20th Mar 2025

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales advanced 4.2% in February to a SA annual rate of 4.26mn. While sales increased on a m-o-m basis, the figure was 1.2% lower y-o-y. EHS remain at some of their lowest levels seen in recent years. The lacklustre market has mostly been on account of high mortgage rates and unaffordable home prices. However, sellers and buyers are coming to terms with the higher for longer interest rate environment and pulling the trigger on homes. Considerations apart from mortgage rates are now starting to dominate reasons for moving houses – for instance marriages, children, job related moves, etc. Inventory is hence gradually growing as more sellers list their homes for sale. The rapid price growth witnessed in the 2 years post the pandemic is over. While home prices have not cascaded down nationwide, the growth in prices has tapered off or declined a bit. Moreover some pockets / regions have witnessed sizeable price declines. Total housing inventory at the end of February was 1.24mn – up 5.1% from the previous month. This represents a 3.5 months supply based on current sales pace. The median house price for all housing types in February was $398.4K, up 3.8% y-o-y. The median price rose on a m-o-m basis in February after having been on a decline since June 2024. 

21st Feb 2025

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales declined 4.9% in January to a SA annual rate of 4.08mn. While sales fell on a m-o-m basis, the figure was 2% higher y-o-y. This is the fourth consecutive month of y-o-y increases in EHS. Nonetheless, EHS remain at some of their lowest levels seen in recent years. The lacklustre market has mostly been on account of high mortgage rates and unaffordable home prices. However, sellers and buyers are coming to terms with the higher for longer interest rate environment and pulling the trigger on homes. Inventory is hence gradually growing as more sellers list their homes for sale. The rapid price growth witnessed in the 2 years post the pandemic is over. While home prices have not cascaded down nationwide, the growth in prices has tapered off or declined a bit. Moreover some pockets / regions have witnessed sizeable price declines. Total housing inventory at the end of January was 1.18mn – a up 3.5% from the previous month. This represents a 3.5 months supply based on current sales pace. The median house price for all housing types in January was $396.9K, up 4.8% y-o-y. 

24th Jan 2025

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales climbed 2.2% in the month of December to a SA annual rate of 4.24mn. This is the third consecutive month of increases in EHS and a nine month high. Nonetheless, EHS remain at some of their lowest levels seen in recent years. EHS in 2024 closed at 4.06mn, the lowest level since 1995. The lacklustre market has mostly been on account of high mortgage rates and unaffordable home prices. However, the more important point to note is the gradual but sluggish recovery in EHS over the past few months. Sellers and buyers are coming to terms with the higher for longer interest rate environment and pulling the trigger on homes. Inventory is hence gradually growing. Total housing inventory at the end of December was 1.15mn – a sharp drop of 13.5% from the previous month. This represents a 3.3 months supply based on current sales pace – down from 3.8 in November. The median house price for all housing types in December was $404.4K, up 6% y-o-y. 

19th Dec 2024

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales climbed 4.8% in the month of November to a SA annual rate of 4.15mn. This is the second consecutive month of a sharp increase in EHS and an eight month high. Nonetheless, EHS remain at some of their lowest levels seen in recent years. Mortgage rates had come down from the highs seen earlier in the year. However, since the Fed’s jumbo rate cut in mid September, mortgage rates have moved back up again in line with the rise in the 10 year treasury yield. Home affordability remains an issue. Both these factors continue to constrain home sales in the US. On the other hand, house inventory continues to grow as more sellers come into the market. Total housing inventory registered at the end of November was 1.33 mn units, down 2.9% from the previous month of October but 18% up from one year ago. This represents a 3.8 months supply at the current sales pace. Once again, while this is low by historical standards, it is still higher than the previous year and moving in the upward direction. Given the high interest rates and low home affordability, it is unlikely that we see a spike up in existing home sales. The odds are we might see a slow grind up in the number as more existing home owners becomes willing sellers and interest rates gradually make their journey down. Accordingly a slight increase this month in EHS was mostly in line with expectations. The median EHS price for all housing types in November was US$406K, up 4.7% from a year ago.

21st Nov 2024

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales climbed 3.4% in the month of October to a SA annual rate of 3.96mn, EHS remain at their lowest levels in recent years. Mortgage rates had come down from the highs seen earlier in the year. However, since the Fed’s jumbo rate cut in mid September, mortgage rates have moved back up again in line with the rise in the 10 year treasury yield. Home affordability remains an issue. Even for the latest month of October, the median existing home sales price increased 4.0% y-o-y to $407.2K. On the other hand, house inventory continues to grow as more sellers come into the market. Total housing inventory registered at the end of October was 1.37 mn units up 0.7% from the previous month of September and 19% from one year ago. This represents a 4.2 months supply at the current sales pace. Once again, while this is low by historical standards, it is still higher than the previous year and moving in the upward direction. Given the high interest rates and low home affordability, it is unlikely that we see a spike up in existing home sales. The odds are we might see a slow grind up in the number as more existing home owners becomes willing sellers and interest rates gradually make their journey down. Accordingly a slight increase this month in EHS was mostly in line with expectations.

23rd Oct 2024

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales declined 1.0% in the month of September to a SA annual rate of 3.84mn, EHS remain at their lowest levels in recent years. Mortgage rates had come down from the highs seen earlier in the year. However, since the Fed’s jumbo rate cut in mid September, mortgage rates have moved back up again in line with the rise in the 10 year treasury yield. Home affordability remains an issue. Even for the latest month of September, the median existing home sales price increased 3.0% y-o-y to $404.5K. On the other hand, house inventory continues to grow as more sellers come into the market. Total housing inventory registered at the end of September was 1.39 mn units up 1.5% from the previous month of August and 23% from one year ago. This represents a 4.3 months supply at the current sales pace. Once again, while this is low by historical standards, it is still higher than the previous year and moving in the upward direction. Given the high interest rates and low home affordability, it is unlikely that we see a spike up in existing home sales. The odds are we might see a slow grind up in the number as more existing home owners becomes willing sellers and interest rates gradually make their journey down. 

19th Sep 2024

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales declined 2.5% in the month of August after having increased 1.3% the previous month in July. At a SA annual rate of 3.86mn, EHS remain at their lowest levels in recent years. Mortgage rates have come down in recent weeks with treasury yields moving lower on the back of softer inflation and the widely anticipated Fed rate cuts. Yet, the EHS number remains fairly low as home affordability remains an issue and mortgage rates still remain fairly high by historical standards. On the other hand, house inventory continues to grow as more sellers come into the market. Total housing inventory registered at the end of August was 1.35 mn units up 0.7% from the previous month of July and 23% from one year ago. This represents a 4.2 months supply at the current sales pace. Once again, while this is low by historical standards, it is still higher than the previous year and moving in the upward direction. Given the high interest rates and low home affordability, it is unlikely that we see a spike up in existing home sales. The odds are we might see a slow grind up in the number as more existing home owners becomes willing sellers and interest rates gradually make their journey down. Surprisingly, the median house price continues to climb higher as well situated homes continue to see adequate demand. The median existing home price in August was $416.7K, an increase of 3.1% from the previous year. 

  • Existing Home Sales decreased to a SA annual rate of 3.86mn homes in Aug (Expectation 3.92mn)

22nd Aug 2024

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales rose 1.3% in the month of July, breaking a run of 4 consecutive months of declines. Mortgage rates have come down in recent weeks with treasury yields moving lower on the back of softer inflation and weaker economic prints. Yet, the number remains fairly low as home affordability remains an issue and mortgage rates still remain fairly high by historical standards. The EHS level now stands at a SA annualized number of 3.95mn units. On the other hand, house inventory continues to grow as more sellers come into the market. Total housing inventory registered at the end of July was 1.33 mn units up 0.8% from the previous month of June and 20% from one year ago. This represents a 4.0 months supply at the current sales pace. Once again, while this is low by historical standards, it is still higher than the previous year and moving in the upward direction. Given the high interest rates and low home affordability, it is unlikely that we see a spike up in existing home sales. The odds are we might see a slow grind up in the number as more existing home owners becomes willing sellers and interest rates gradually make their journey down. Surprisingly, the median house price continues to climb higher as well situated homes continue to see adequate demand. The median existing home price in July was $422.6K, an increase of 4.2% from the previous year. 

  • Existing Home Sales increased to a SA annual rate of 3.95mn homes in Jul (Expectation 3.94mn)

23rd Jul 2024

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales fell sharply in the month of June as home affordability remains an issue and mortgage rates still remain fairly high – even though they have come off a bit in recent weeks. EHS fell by 5.4% in June to a SA annualized number of 3.89mn units. The latest data makes it 4 continuous months of Existing Home Sales declines. On the other hand, house inventory continues to grow as more sellers come into the market. Total housing inventory registered at the end of May was 1.32 mn units up 3.1% from the previous month of April and 23% from one year ago. This represents a 4.1 months supply at the current sales pace. Once again, while this is low by historical standards, it is still higher than the previous year and moving in the upward direction. Given the high interest rates and low home affordability, it is unlikely that we see a spike up in existing home sales. The odds are we might see a slow grind up in the number as more existing home owners becomes willing sellers and interest rates gradually make their journey down. Surprisingly, the median house price continues to climb higher as well situated homes continue to see adequate demand. The median existing home price in June was $427K, an increase of 4.1% from the previous year. 

  • Existing Home Sales decreased to a SA annual rate of 3.89mn homes in Jun (Expectation 3.99mn)

21st Jun 2024

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales dipped slightly by 0.7% in May to a SA annualized number of 4.11mn units. Existing Home Sales have fallen for 3 months in a row. However, the level still remains higher than the lows of last year. Also the May figure was slightly better than consensus estimates. Interest rates have moved back up from the lows reached in Q4 last year. Home affordability still remains a key issue. However, the key point to note is the continuing growth in inventory. Total housing inventory registered at the end of May was 1.28 mn units up 6.7% from the previous month of April and 18.5% from one year ago. This represents a 3.7 months supply at the current sales pace. Once again, while this is low by historical standards, it is still higher than the previous year and moving in the upward direction. Given the high interest rates and low home affordability, it is unlikely that we see a spike up in existing home sales. The odds are we might see a slow grind up in the number as more existing home owners becomes willing sellers and interest rates gradually make their journey down. The median existing home price in May was $419K, an increase of 5.8% from the previous year. 

  • Existing Home Sales decreased to a SA annual rate of 4.11mn homes in May (Expectation 4.08mn)

22nd May 2024

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales dipped 1.8% in April on the back of a sharp fall in the earlier month of March (minus 4.3%). The April figure stood at a SA annual rate of 4.14mn units. While March and April saw declines in Existing Home Sales, the level is still higher than the lows of last year and the trend over the past 6 months is still higher. Consensus expectations were for a 4.21mn mark and hence the release was slightly lower than expectations. Interest rates have moved back up from the lows reached in Q4 last year. Home affordability still remains a key issue. However, the key point to note is the continuing growth in inventory. Total housing inventory registered at the end of April was 1.21 mn units up 9.0% from March and 16.3% from one year ago. This represents a 3.5 months supply at the current sales pace. Once again, while this is low by historical standards, it is still higher than the previous year and moving in the upward direction. Given the high interest rates and low home affordability, it is unlikely that we see a spike up in existing home sales. The odds are we might see a slow grind up in the number as more existing home owners becomes willing sellers and interest rates gradually make their journey down. The median existing home price in April was $407.6K, an increase of 5.7% from the previous year. 

  • Existing Home Sales decreased to a SA annual rate of 4.14mn homes in Apr (Expectation 4.21mn)

18th Apr 2024

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales dipped in the month of March (minus 4.3%) on the back of a substantial increase of 9.5% in February. The March figure stood at a SA annual rate of 4.19mn units. While March saw a decline in Existing Home Sales, the level is still higher than the lows of last year and the trend over the past 6 months has been higher. Consensus expectations were for a 4.2mn mark and hence the release was mostly in line with expectations. Interest rates have moved back up from the lows reached in Q4 last year. Home affordability still remains a key issue. However, the key point to note is the continuing growth in inventory. Total housing inventory registered at the end of March was 1.11 mn units up 4.7% from February and 14.4% from one year ago. This represents a 3.2 months supply at the current sales pace. Once again, while this is low by historical standards, it is still higher than the previous year and moving in the upward direction. The median existing home price in March was $393.5K, an increase of 4.8% from the previous year. 

  • Existing Home Sales decreased to a SA annual rate of 4.19mn homes in Mar (Expectation 4.20mn)

21st Mar 2024

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales increased a massive 9.5% in February to a SAAR of 4.38mn units. While this is still a low level by historical standards, it was a significant improvement over recent months nonetheless. And it also came in above expectations of 3.95mn. The lack of activity in the Existing Home Sales market has been mostly on account of high mortgage rates through the whole of 2023 and lack of supply of existing homes due to the “rate-lock” phenomenon. However, with mortgage rates much lower compared to mid 2023 and sellers getting used to the “new normal”, we have been seeing some activity return to the existing home sales market. The latest Existing Home Sales report strongly supports this narrative. Most private housing market surveys and reports show a continued trend of increasing new listing and consequently inventories. As spring approaches and the home buying season gets underway, we might continue to see more activity in the existing home sales market (unless rates once again spike up significantly from current levels). The median existing home sales price still stays resilient though (Median EHS price increased 5.7% y-o-y in February 2024). Even with the recent trends of higher inventory listings, the inventory of unsold existing homes still remains tight at 1.07mn units or equivalent to 2.9 months supply. However, it is still key to note that total housing inventory rose 5.9% from January and 10.3% from one year ago. New homes construction also still seems to be going strong which can be seen from the housing starts and building permits data.

  • Existing Home Sales increased to a SA annual rate of 4.38mn homes in Feb (Expectation 3.95mn)

22nd Feb 2024

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales increased a robust 3.1% in January to a SAAR of 4.0mn units. While this is still a very low level by historical standards, it was an improvement over recent months nonetheless. And it also came in above expectations of 3.96mn. The lack of activity in the Existing Home Sales market has been mostly on account of high mortgage rates through the whole of 2023 and lack of supply of existing homes due to the “rate-lock” phenomenon. However, with mortgage rates much lower compared to mid 2023 and sellers getting used to the “new normal”, we have been seeing some activity return to the existing home sales market. Most private housing market surveys and reports show a continued trend of increasing new listing and consequently inventories. As spring approaches and the home buying season gets underway, we might possibly see more activity in the existing home sales market (unless rates once again spike up significantly from current levels). The median existing home sales price still stays resilient though (Median EHS price increased 5.1% y-o-y in January 2024). The inventory of unsold existing homes still remains tight at 1.01mn units or equivalent to 3.0 months supply. New homes construction also still seems to be holding up which can be seen from the housing starts and building permits data.

  • Existing Home Sales increased to a SA annual rate of 4.00mn homes in Jan (Expectation 3.75mn)

19th Jan 2024

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales decreased 1.0%, coming in much lower in December than expectations of a 0.3% rise. Existing home sales recorded 4.09mn units in the full year 2023 – the lowest level in nearly 30 years! The lack of activity in the Existing Home Sales market has been mostly on account of high mortgage rates through the whole of 2023 and lack of supply of existing homes due to the “rate-lock” phenomenon. However, with mortgage rates much lower compared to mid 2023 and sellers getting used to the “new normal”, we have been seeing some activity return to the existing home sales market (even though the December data point indicates otherwise). Most private housing market surveys and reports show a continued trend of increasing new listing and consequently inventories. The median existing home sales price still stays resilient though (Median EHS price increased 4.4% y-o-y in December 2023). The inventory of unsold existing homes still remains tight at 1.0mn units or equivalent to 3.2 months supply. New homes construction also still seems to be holding up which can be seen from the housing starts and building permits data.

  • Existing Home Sales increased to a SA annual rate of 3.78mn homes in Dec (Expectation 3.82mn)

20th Dec 2023

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales increased 0.8%, beating expectations in November to a SA annual rate of 3.82mn units. Even with the increase though, this level is not only lower than the end 2022 lows, it is also at a 13 year low. To some extent, the decrease in EHS was expected and in line with some of the other real estate data that we have seen in the past few months. Mortgage rates had closed in on 8%. Inventory still remains low. Cumulatively, this has been stifling the existing home sales market. However, with the sharp drop in mortgage rates, there is an expectation that eventually existing home sellers will list more inventory and the number of existing home sales will pick up. The weekly indexes on mortgage activity have also started to indicate some pick up. On the other hand, of late the surge of activity in the new homes market has also subsided. The overall resurgence that we had seen in the Residential Real Estate market, especially in the new building segment, seems to have plateaued. It will be key to track if activity in the real estate market trickles back again a bit the way it had in the first half of 2023. The median existing home sales price still stays resilient though (Median EHS price increased 4.0% y-o-y in November 2023). The inventory of unsold existing homes still remains tight at 1.13mn units or equivalent to 3.5 months supply. New homes construction also still seems to be holding up which can be seen from the housing starts and building permits data.

  • Existing Home Sales increased to a SA annual rate of 3.82mn homes in Nov (Expectation 3.78mn)

21st Nov 2023

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales dropped a more-than-expected 4.1% in October to a SA annual rate of 3.79mn units. This level is now not only lower than the end 2022 lows, it is also at a 13 year low. To some extent, the decrease in EHS was expected and in line with some of the other real estate data that we have seen in the past few months. Mortgage rates had closed in on 8%. Inventory still remains low. Cumulatively, this has been stifling the existing home sales market. However, in the past 20 days of November, mortgage rates have come down in line with the sharp fall in the 10 year yield. The weekly indexes on mortgage activity also indicate some pick up. On the other hand, of late the surge of activity in the new homes market has also subsided. The overall resurgence that we had seen in the Residential Real Estate market, especially in the new building segment, seems to have plateaued. It will be key to track if activity in the real estate market trickles back again a bit the way it had in the first half of 2023. The median existing home sales price still stays resilient though (Median EHS price increased 3.4% y-o-y in October 2023). The inventory of unsold existing homes still remains tight at 1.15mn units or equivalent to 3.6 months supply. New homes construction also still seems to be holding up which can be seen from the housing starts and building permits data.

  • Existing Home Sales decreased to a SA annual rate of 3.79mn homes in Oct (Expectation 3.90mn)

19th Oct 2023

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales dropped 2.0% in September to a SA annual rate of 3.96mn units. This level is now lower than the end 2022 lows and second only to the lowest recorded level in the peak of the 2020 Covid pandemic. Existing Home Sales had been on a downward trend for the whole of 2022. After having fallen precipitously all through 2022, they had stabilized in 1H 2023. We even saw a couple of readings this year when EHS increased m-o-m. However, EHS have now fallen continuously in recent months. Mortgage rates have closed in on 8%. Inventory still remains low. Cumulatively, this has been stifling the existing home sales market. Of late, the surge of activity in the new homes market has also subsided. The overall resurgence that we had seen in the Residential Real Estate market, especially in the new building segment, seems to have plateaued. Notable, even the key NAHB Home Builders sentiment index has fallen for the last 4 months. The median existing home sales price still stays resilient though (Median EHS price increased 2.8% y-o-y in September 2023). The inventory of unsold existing homes still remains tight at 1.13mn units or equivalent to 3.4 months supply. New homes construction also still seems to be holding up which can be seen from the housing starts and building permits data.

  • Existing Home Sales decreased to a SA annual rate of 3.96mn homes in Sep (Expectation 3.89mn)

21st Sep 2023

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales dropped 0.7% in August to a SA annual rate of 4.04mn units. Existing Home Sales had been on a downward trend for the whole of 2022. After having fallen precipitously all through 2022, they had stabilized in 1H 2023. We even saw a couple of readings this year when EHS increased m-o-m. However, EHS have now fallen for the past 3 continuous months. But it has yet not breached last year’s low of 4.0mn. While the “mortgage rate lock” phenomenon continues to keep existing home owners away from the resale market, there is always a some level of demand from various categories of buyers and sellers eg. new home formations, boomers downgrading once their children have moved out of their homes, etc. Hence, the general consensus is that we are unlikely to see a freefall in the US residential real estate market. However, the overall resurgence that we had seen in the Residential Real Estate market, especially in the new building segment, seems to have plateaued. Notable, even the key NAHB Home Builders sentiment index has fallen for the last 3 months. The median existing home sales price still stays resilient though (Median EHS price increased 3.9% y-o-y in August 2023). The inventory of unsold existing homes still remains tight at 1.1mn units or equivalent to 3.3 months supply. 

  • Existing Home Sales increased to a SA annual rate of 4.04mn homes in Aug (Expectation 4.10mn)

22nd Aug 2023

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales dropped 2.2% in July to a SA annual rate of 4.07mn units. Existing Home Sales had been on a downward trend for the whole of 2022. After having fallen precipitously all through 2022, they had stabilized in 1H 2023. We even saw a couple of readings this year when EHS increased m-o-m. However, EHS have now fallen for the past two months again. But it has yet not breached last year’s low of 4.0mn. While the “mortgage rate lock” phenomenon continues to keep existing home owners away from the resale market, there is always a some level of demand from various categories of buyers and sellers eg. new home formations, boomers downgrading once their children have moved out of their homes, etc. Hence, the general consensus is that we are unlikely to see a freefall in the US residential real estate market. If viewed from this lens, it is not surprising to see the median existing home sales price still resilient (Median EHS price increased 1.9% y-o-y in July 2023). The inventory of unsold existing homes still remains tight at 1.1mn units or equivalent to 3.3 months supply. 

  • Existing Home Sales increased to a SA annual rate of 4.07mn homes in Jul (Expectation 4.15mn)

20th Jul 2023

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales dropped 3.3% in Jun to a SA annual rate of 4.16mn units. After a couple of months of slightly positive existing home sales numbers, June resumed the trend downward. Median Existing Home Sales price, on the other other hand, posted a sharp rise upward to $410K from $396K. While it is still lower than the median price a year before ($413K), the sharp increases are proof of a still tight real estate market. Total housing inventory registered at the end of June was 1.08mn units – which is roughly 3 months of supply at the current sales pace. That is still significantly below a “normal” range of 6-9 months of supply.  

  • Existing Home Sales increased to a SA annual rate of 4.16mn homes in Jun (Expectation 4.20mn)

22nd Jun 2023

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales edged up marginally in May (+0.2%). However, the more important aspect to consider is that a bottom seems to have formed in the existing home sales market. At a SA annual rate of 4.3mn units, EHS is now off the January lows of 4.0mn annual units. There was a drop in “Days on Market” too (18 days in May compared to 22 days in April). The story of shortage of homes in the US market continues and it is driving activity in the new home sales market. Existing homes inventory continues to be low at 3 months supply compared to a pre-pandemic normal of 6-8 months. 

18th May 2023

Key takeaway: After an exceptional and unusual rise in Feb, Existing Home Sales resumed their downward trend in March and continued that trend in April. Existing Home Sales fell a substantial 3.4% month over month in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.28mn units. This is 23% lower from one year ago. The story remains the same. Mortgage rates have increased substantially from last year. Existing home owners are not motivated to upgrade homes since they would have to get in on a new higher mortgage rate. This is resulting in falling inventory of existing homes and a cascading effect in the number of transactions in the existing home market. The last time Existing Home Sales was this low was at the beginning of the 2008-09 recession. However, it is also equally important to note that the April number of 4.28 mn is off this current cycle low of 4.0mn in Jan 2023. The overall residential home market has staged a spectacular recovery this year led by the new home sales segment. Ironically lower inventory in the existing homes market has been driving more activity in the new homes market. Median existing home sales price dipped 1.7% from previous year to $388.8K. This is the 3rd month in a row that the median home price for existing homes has fallen on a y-o-y basis (after 11 continuous years of price increases). However, it is also key to note that the median house price increased on a m-o-m basis. Lastly, inventory at 1.04 mn units remans historically low – at 2.9 months supply at current sales pace.

  • Existing Home Sales decreased to a SA annual rate of 4.28mn homes in Apr (Expectation 4.30mn)

20th Apr 2023

Key takeaway: After an exceptional and unusual rise in Feb, Existing Home Sales resumed their downward trend in March. It is worth remembering again that prior to the Feb rise, EHS had fallen m-o-m for the past 11 months. The story remains the same. Mortgage rates have increased substantially from last year. Existing home owners are not motivated to upgrade homes since they would have to get in on a new higher mortgage rate. This is resulting in falling inventory of existing homes and a cascading effect in the number of transactions in the existing home market. Ironically this is driving more activity in the new homes market. (To read more on this check the blog page on this website). Also, the median existing home sales price dipped 0.9% from previous year to $375.7K. This is the 2nd month in a row that the median home price for existing homes has fallen on a y-o-y basis (after 11 continuous years of price increases). However, it is also key to note that the median house price increased on a m-o-m basis. Lastly, inventory at 980K remans historically low – at 2.6 months supply at current sales pace.

  • Existing Home Sales decreased to a SA annual rate of 4.44mn homes in Mar (Expectation 4.50mn)

21st Mar 2023

Key takeaway: On the heels of a week that has made the Fed’s decision more complicated, Existing Home Sales only added to their discomfort. EHS jumped a massive 14.5% in February from January to a SAAR of 4.58mn units. EHS recorded in Feb would have typically been signed in Dec or early Jan when rates had come off their highs. Consensus expectations were for growth in EHS to be recorded in both Jan and Feb. Instead, EHS recorded a fall in Jan and subsequently this large rise in Feb. Mortgage rates had then spiked up again in Feb and we might see the effect on EHS in subsequent months EHS. It is also worth noting that the growth in EHS was across all regions. Median price of EHS fell 0.2% y-o-y to $363K. This is the first fall in EHS median price recorded in the last 11 years! Housing inventory stands at 980K units or 2.6 months supply – still far from a healthy market range.

21st Feb 2023

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales fell for the 12th straight month in January to a SA annual rate of 4.0mn units. This was a fall of 0.7% from the previous month of December and 37% from one year ago. The consensus estimate was for a growth of 2% to a SA annual rate of 4.10mn. While the small downward change does not signify a material shift on a m-o-m basis, the bottomline of the real estate sector in the US is that activity in the single family residential space has substantially fallen from peak levels. In late Dec and early Jan, mortgage rates had reduced the peak rates reached in Q4 2022 and there was a marked improvement noted in other housing market indicators – like weekly mortgage applications, home builder sentiment, etc. This was the reason EHS was expected to have ticked up a bit as well. Instead, the reading was a further fall from the already depressed levels. What is interesting to consider is that in the recent 2 weeks of Feb, mortgage rates have climbed back up again in line with the move up in treasury rates. This continues to pose a headwind to the real estate sector. Finally, even though EHS transactions have cratered, new listings by home sellers continue to be very soft resulting in an ongoing demand supply imbalance causing prices to remain elevated. Total housing inventory improved marginally from Dec to 980K units in Jan, but that is still about 2.9 months supply only!

20th Jan 2023

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales fell for the 11th straight month to a SA annual rate of 4.02mn units. This was a fall of 1.5% from the previous month of November and 34% from one year ago. However, the more nuanced aspect to know about this month’s release was that it beat consensus expectations on the upside – only marginally though. Why is this important? Over the past month or so, real estate industry data has generally improved a bit. New home sales unexpectedly improved in October and November. The NAHB Index improved in January when it rose 4 bps from 31 to 35, exceeding median expectations again. The average mortgage rate in the US has fallen from a high of plus 7% in October to about 6% now. Finally, even though EHS transactions have cratered, new listings by home sellers continue to be very soft resulting in a ongoing demand supply imbalance causing prices to remain elevated. Total housing inventory fell 13.4% from November to 970K units in December. Unsold inventory hence now sits at 2.9 months supply compared to 3.3 months in November! 

21st Dec 2022

Key takeaway: Falling transactions and prices holding up ! This dual-faced story continues in the US Real Estate market. Even though transactions have been precipitously falling, prices are not falling meaningfully and inventory still remains significantly low. EHS fell 7.7% from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09mn units in November 2022. This is the lowest level of EHS since December 2011 (barring the two months of Covid). And this is the 10th consecutive monthly fall in sales. Median house price still remains high at $371K – 3.5% higher than Nov 2021. However, on a month on month basis, it has remained quite unchanged.  The inventory of unsold existing homes fell for the 4th consecutive month to 1.14mn homes – equivalent to 3.3 months supply !

18th Nov 2022

Key takeaway: The dual-faced story continued in the US Real Estate market. Even though transactions have been precipitously falling, prices are not falling meaningfully and inventory still remains significantly low. EHS fell 5.9% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43mn units. This is the lowest level of EHS since December 2011 (barring the two months of Covid). And this is the 9th consecutive monthly fall in sales. Median house price still remains high at $379K – 6.6% higher than previous October. The inventory of unsold existing homes fell for the 3rd consecutive month to 1.22mn homes – equivalent to 3.3 months supply !

20th Oct 2022

Key takeaway: Even though Existing home sales have been consistently falling in the past few months, there are still nuances to this story which play an important role in the fight against inflation. Firstly, the fall is EHS has levelled off a bit in the last 3 months. (currently about 4.7mn annualized). Second, even though EHS are falling, home prices are still not falling meaningfully (still up 8% y-o-y). Lastly, existing home inventory still remains extremely tight (at 3.2 months equivalent) which makes a large fall is home prices that much more difficult to occur. In fact the inventory of existing unsold homes fell for the 2nd month in a row. At the end of the day, Shelter inflation is literally the most important and sticky component of the CPI basket!

21st Sep 2022

Key takeaway: Existing home sales got a bit of a respite in the August release. EHS notched a minor contraction from July of 0.4% to a SA adjusted annualised number of 4.8mn. This was above a consensus estimate of 4.7mn. Nonetheless, Aug marks a 7th continuous month of decline. Total housing inventory still remains fairly tight at 1.28mn units. Unsold inventory sits at 3.2 months supply. Also, remember that these numbers mostly pertain to contracts signed in June and July when the 30 year mortgage rate had climbed up to 5.5-5.8%.

18th Aug 2022

Key takeaway: Housing recession is centerstage on everyone’s mind now. Existing home sales are now at a multi-year low 4.81mn. To provide some context, the 2018-19 low was 4.93mn (remember this was the last “fed pivot” timeline). On the other side of the spectrum the 2005 high was 7.25mn. This data point should also be viewed together with other cascading housing metrics of new home sales, mortgage applications, etc. 

20th Jul 2022

Key takeaway: Existing Home Sales fell to a 2 year low in June. An annualized rate of 5.12mn. Sales were down 5.4% from May. This was the fifth straight month of decline. 

21st Jun 2022

Key takeaway: Existing-home sales declined for the fourth straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million. Sales were down 3.4% from April and 8.6% from one year ago. At $407,600, the median existing-home sales price exceeded $400,000 for the first time and represents a 14.8% increase from one year ago. The inventory of unsold existing homes rose to 1.16 million by the end of May, or the equivalent of 2.6 months at the current monthly sales pace. 

 

Existing-home sales data are a monthly measure of the sales volume and prices of existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops nationwide. Existing-home sales account for more than 90% of total home sales, and the monthly data captures completed transactions. Data is released around the 20th of each month for the previous month.

NAR Research