US Macro Updates

The One Stop Portal for US Macroeconomic Data. Simplified and Summarized! 

We simplify and summarize key data so that you don’t have to spend hours reading confusing and long media releases. Read key economic releases and major events here in under 2 minutes. And we will explain the key takeaway for you. Stay informed and form a robust view on macroeconomic matters to aid your successful investment decisions

US Retail Sales – Retail Trade and Food Services

14th Aug 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: Retail sales are one of the most closely watched indicators of consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of US GDP, making each monthly release a critical pulse check on the health of the broader economy. Over the past two years, retail sales have broadly trended upward in nominal terms, though the pace of growth has been uneven, with consumers periodically pulling back in response to elevated interest rates, persistent inflation, and shifting confidence levels. The July 2026 reading of 763.6bn represents a decline of 0.58% from the prior month, a notable softening that suggests some loss of momentum heading into the second half of the year. This pullback may reflect consumers becoming more selective with discretionary spending as the cumulative burden of higher borrowing costs and elevated price levels continues to weigh on household budgets. For corporate earnings, softer retail demand typically signals margin pressure for retailers and consumer-facing businesses, particularly those exposed to big-ticket or non-essential categories. The broader economic implication is that if this weakness persists into subsequent months, it could weigh on Q3 GDP estimates and prompt closer scrutiny of whether the consumer-led expansion of recent years is beginning to fade. Markets and policymakers alike will be watching the next several releases carefully for signs of whether July represents a temporary blip or the start of a more sustained softening trend.

Advance Retail Sales decreased 0.58% in Jul to 763.6bn.

16th Jul 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: Retail sales are one of the most closely watched indicators of consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of US GDP, making each monthly release a critical read on the health of the broader economy. Over the past two years, retail sales have broadly trended upward in nominal terms, though the pace of growth has been uneven, with consumers showing resilience in some months and pulling back in others as they navigated elevated interest rates, lingering inflation, and shifting credit conditions. The June 2026 reading of 768.55bn represents a modest 0.22% month-on-month gain, suggesting that consumer spending continues to advance but at a measured pace rather than with any particular acceleration. This kind of subdued growth is broadly consistent with a consumer base that remains active but increasingly selective, prioritising essentials and value-driven purchases amid ongoing affordability pressures. For corporate earnings, a slow-and-steady spending environment supports revenue stability for large retailers while leaving less room for upside surprises, particularly in discretionary categories. From a macroeconomic perspective, the data point to an economy that is neither running hot enough to reignite inflation concerns nor cooling sharply enough to signal an imminent contraction. Overall, the June figure reinforces a picture of gradual expansion underpinned by a cautious but still-engaged American consumer.

Advance Retail Sales increased 0.22% in Jun to 768.55bn.

17th Jun 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: Retail sales are one of the most closely watched indicators of consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of US GDP, making each monthly release a critical read on the health of the broader economy. Over the past two years, retail sales have navigated a challenging environment defined by elevated interest rates, persistent inflation pressures, and shifting consumer priorities away from goods and toward services, yet headline figures have generally trended upward in nominal terms. The May 2026 reading of 763.71bn, representing a 0.88% month-on-month gain, suggests that consumer demand remained resilient heading into the summer, a positive signal after periods of more subdued or uneven growth. This level of expansion, if sustained, points to a consumer that is still willing to spend despite ongoing affordability pressures from borrowing costs and living expenses. For corporate earnings, a robust retail environment typically supports revenue guidance across consumer discretionary and staples sectors, potentially providing a tailwind for upcoming quarterly results. From a macroeconomic perspective, the data reduces near-term recession concerns and may give the Federal Reserve additional reason to hold rates steady rather than pivot aggressively toward cuts. Taken together, the May figures reinforce a picture of cautious but durable consumer resilience that warrants close monitoring in the months ahead.

Advance Retail Sales increased 0.88% in May to 763.71bn.

17th May 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: Retail sales are one of the most closely watched indicators in macroeconomic analysis, serving as a direct measure of consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of US GDP. Over the past two years, retail sales have demonstrated a broadly resilient trend, weathering elevated interest rates and persistent inflation pressures, though growth has been uneven across categories with discretionary spending periodically softening while essentials and online retail have provided consistent support. The April 2026 reading of 757.09 billion dollars, reflecting a 0.49% month-over-month increase, is consistent with that pattern of moderate but positive momentum, suggesting consumers have not materially pulled back despite ongoing affordability concerns. This kind of measured gain indicates household balance sheets remain sufficiently intact to sustain spending, even if the pace falls short of the stronger prints seen during earlier post-pandemic rebounds. For corporate earnings, a continued positive trend in retail sales provides a constructive backdrop for consumer-facing companies, particularly in the retail, food service, and e-commerce sectors heading into mid-year reporting seasons. At the same time, the modest rather than accelerating pace of growth signals that pricing power may remain constrained and that volume-driven revenue expansion could be difficult to sustain without wage growth keeping pace with costs. Overall, the April data point to a consumer that is holding up but not accelerating, reinforcing expectations for a gradual rather than robust economic trajectory through the remainder of 2026.

Advance Retail Sales increased 0.49% in Apr to 757.09bn.

Advance Retail Sales – April 2026: +0.49% (757.09bn)

21st Apr 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: Retail sales are one of the most closely watched indicators of consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of US GDP, making each monthly release a critical pulse check on the health of the broader economy. Over the past two years, retail sales have navigated a challenging environment of elevated interest rates and persistent inflation, broadly holding up better than many economists feared, though momentum has been uneven with periodic soft patches interrupting the general upward trend. The March 2026 reading of 752.06 billion dollars, representing a month-on-month gain of 1.66 percent, comes in as a notably strong print that suggests consumers remain willing and able to spend despite ongoing cost-of-living pressures. This acceleration reinforces the narrative of a resilient US consumer and reduces near-term fears of a demand-driven economic slowdown. For corporate earnings, particularly in the retail, consumer discretionary, and staples sectors, the data provide an encouraging backdrop heading into the next reporting season. The strength also carries implications for monetary policy, as robust consumer spending may give Federal Reserve officials reason to remain cautious about easing financial conditions too quickly. Overall, the March figures point to an economy where household spending continues to underpin growth, though analysts will be watching whether this pace can be sustained in the months ahead.

Advance Retail Sales increased 1.66% in Mar to 752.06bn.

Advance Retail Sales – March 2026: +1.66% (752.06bn)

1st Apr 2026

Key takeaway: The US Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey for February 2026, released on April 1, pointed to a solid rebound in consumer spending. Retail and food services sales came in at $738.4 billion, up 0.6% from January and up 3.7% year-over-year — with total sales for the December 2025 through February 2026 period up 3.1% from the same period a year ago. It was the strongest monthly performance in seven months, beating forecasts of a 0.5% gain and rebounding from January’s 0.1% decline. The gains were broad-based: department stores led with a 3.0% jump, followed by health and personal care stores (+2.3%), clothing (+2.0%), sporting goods and books (+1.3%), and motor vehicle dealers (+1.2%), while gasoline stations rose 0.9% and nonstore retailers gained 0.7%. Food and beverage stores and furniture were the notable laggards, each falling 1.0%. The closely watched “control group” — which strips out autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services and feeds directly into GDP calculations — rose 0.5%, above the expected 0.3% and up from January’s 0.2% reading. However, the positive optics come with a caveat: even with the February rebound, retail sales volumes in inflation-adjusted terms are up only about 1% from a year ago. It is key to remember that Retail sales is reported in nominal terms. With gasoline prices surging roughly 35% through March to over $4 per gallon, any nominal lift in March retail figures is likely to mask a squeeze on real consumer purchasing power.

6th Mar 2026

Key takeaway: Advance estimates released by the United States Census Bureau showed that US retail and food services sales declined by 0.2% in January, following a virtually unchanged reading in December. The decline was driven largely by weaker sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers, which sharply fell during the month. Core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles and parts, were broadly unchanged during the month, indicating that spending across most other retail categories remained relatively stable despite the weaker headline figure. Taken together, the report suggests that consumer spending moderated at the start of the year, although underlying demand conditions appear to have remained relatively steady. Meanwhile, Retail Control sales — which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials and food services and correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of GDP — increased by 0.3% during the month, pointing to continued resilience in the underlying momentum of household spending. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP.  

10th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: (Delayed release due to govt shutdown) – Advance estimates of US retail food and services sales for December 2025 were US$735.0Bn, mostly unchanged from the previous month. Barring soft prints in April and May, 2025 once again has been a relatively strong year for personal consumption and retail sales. The US consumer continues to underpin healthy US economic growth and consequently global economic performance as well. However, the latest release – still delayed data due to last year’s government shutdown – showed retail sales slowed down in the final month of the year. Core retail sales, which excludes motor vehicles and parts, were also unchanged for the month. Both metrics were also lower than consensus expectations. It is worth remembering that Retail sales is reported in nominal terms. i.e. it is not adjusted for inflation. So an unchanged m-o-m reading effectively means the volume of sales went down. Retail Control Group Sales also declined o.1% on a m-o-m basis in December. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP.  

10th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: (Delayed release due to govt shutdown) – Advance estimates of US retail food and services sales for December 2025 were US$735.0Bn, mostly unchanged from the previous month. Barring soft prints in April and May, 2025 once again has been a relatively strong year for personal consumption and retail sales. The US consumer continues to underpin healthy US economic growth and consequently global economic performance as well. However, the latest release – still delayed data due to last year’s government shutdown – showed retail sales slowed down in the final month of the year. Core retail sales, which excludes motor vehicles and parts, were also unchanged for the month. Both metrics were also lower than consensus expectations. It is worth remembering that Retail sales is reported in nominal terms. i.e. it is not adjusted for inflation. So an unchanged m-o-m reading effectively means the volume of sales went down. Retail Control Group Sales also declined o.1% on a m-o-m basis in December. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP.  

14th Jan 2026

Key takeaway: (Delayed release due to govt shutdown) – Advance estimates of US retail food and services sales for November 2025 were US$735.9Bn, 0.6% higher than the previous month. After a strong print for the month of March, Retail sales prints had been soft for both April and May, both months showing a significant fall in both headline and core. The unanimous view was that the strong March number might indeed have been on account of tariff front loading. Softening retail sales are viewed very unfavorably given the importance of consumption as a percentage of the overall economy. Since the 2 soft readings in April and May, we are back to an environment of reasonably solid retail sales growth. The US consumer continues to support US economic performance and global economic performance as well. Core retail sales, which excludes motor vehicles and parts, also increased a strong 0.5% in November. Retail Control Group Sales registered an increased of 0.4% on a m-o-m basis in November. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP.  

17th Dec 2025

Key takeaway: (Delayed release due to govt shutdown) – Advance estimates of US retail food and services sales for October 2025 were US$732.6Bn, mostly unchanged from the previous month. The previous month’s reading for September was also revised down from 0.2% to 0.1%. After a strong print for the month of March, Retail sales prints had been soft for both April and May, both months showing a significant fall in both headline and core. The unanimous view was that the strong March number might indeed have been on account of tariff front loading. Softening retail sales are viewed very unfavorably given the importance of consumption as a percentage of the overall economy. Since the 2 soft readings in April and May, we saw fairly decent readings for the month of June and July and a strong reading in the month of August. The delayed data point for September showed retail spending grew at a less than ideal 0.1% and the latest read has it unchanged for the month of October. It is also key to note that Retail Sales data is not adjusted for inflation and hence a small nominal growth figure or an unchanged number indicated decline in real sales. Core retail sales, which excludes motor vehicles and parts, on the other hand, increased a strong 0.4% in October. However, the September figure was revised down from 0.3% to 0.1%. Retail Control Group Sales registered an increased of 0.8% on a m-o-m basis in October. Overall, the latest data adds to the perception that consumption is slowing down in the economy. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP.  

25th Nov 2025

Key takeaway: (Delayed release due to govt shutdown) – Advance estimates of US retail food and services sales for September 2025 were US$733.3Bn, up 0.2% from the previous month. After a strong print for the month of March, Retail sales prints had been soft for both April and May both months showing a significant fall in both headline and core. The unanimous view was that the strong March number might indeed have been on account of tariff front loading. Softening retail sales are viewed very unfavorably given the importance of consumption as a percentage of the overall economy. Since the 2 soft readings in April and May, we have now once again seen fairly decent readings for the month of June and July and a strong reading in the month of August. The latest delayed data point for September also shows growth in retail spending, though modest. It is also key to note that Retail Sales data is not adjusted for inflation and hence a 0.2% nominal growth figure is not substantial. Core retail sales, which excludes motor vehicles and parts, increased a modest 0.3% in September. Retail Control Group Sales, on the other hand registered a decline of 0.1% on a m-o-m basis in September. All 3 data points were lower than consensus expectations solidifying the perception that consumption has been slowing down in the economy. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. Finally, it is also key to note that 3Q GDP growth data is yet to be released due to the government shutdown. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts Q3 GDP growth rate to come in around 4%. According to the model real PCE growth rate in Q3 is expected to print 3.2%. 

16th Sep 2025

Key takeaway: Advance estimates of US retail food and services sales for August 2025 were US$732Bn, up 0.6% from the previous month. After a strong print for the month of March, Retail sales prints had been soft for both April and May both months showing a significant fall in both headline and core. The unanimous view was that the strong March number might indeed have been on account of tariff front loading. Softening retail sales are viewed very unfavorably given the importance of consumption as a percentage of the overall economy. Since the 2 soft readings in April and May, we have now once again seen fairly decent readings for the month of June and July and a strong reading in the month of August. Core retail sales, which excludes motor vehicles and parts, also increased a solid 0.7% in August. Similarly, Retail Control Group Sales increased 0.7% on a m-o-m basis in August, also better than expected. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. Inflation prints have been mostly soft in the past 4-5 months. Retail Sales prints are unadjusted for inflation, which likely means a strong monthly print shows growth in underlying sales volume. This strong print will likely be taken into account at tomorrow’s Fed meeting as well.

15th Aug 2025

Key takeaway: Advance estimates of US retail food and services sales for July 2025 were US$726Bn, up 0.5% from the previous month. After a strong print for the month of March, Retail sales prints had been soft for both April and May both months showing a significant fall in both headline and core. The unanimous view was that the strong March number might indeed have been on account of tariff front loading. Softening retail sales are viewed very unfavorably given the importance of consumption as a percentage of the overall economy. Since the 2 soft readings in April and May, we have now once again seen fairly decent readings for the month of June and July. . Core retail sales, which excludes motor vehicles and parts, also increased a decent 0.3% in July. Similarly, Retail Control Group Sales increased 0.5% on a m-o-m basis in June, also better than expected. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. Overall, the print was decently strong. Inflation prints have been mostly soft in the past 4-5 months. Retail Sales prints are unadjusted for inflation, which likely means a strong monthly print shows growth in underlying sales volume. 

17th Jul 2025

Key takeaway: Advance estimates of US retail food and services sales for June 2025 were US$720Bn, up 0.6% from the previous month. After a strong print for the month of March, Retail sales prints had been soft for both April and May both months showing a significant fall in both headline and core. The unanimous view was that the strong March number might indeed have been on account of tariff front loading. Softening retail sales are viewed very unfavorably given the importance of consumption as a % of the overall economy. The latest data point, hence comes as some relief for the markets. Core retail sales, which excludes motor vehicles and parts, also increased a strong 0.5% in June. Similarly, Retail Control Group Sales increased 0.5% on a m-o-m basis in July, also better than expected. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. Overall, the print was decently strong. Inflation prints have been mostly soft in the past 4-5 months. Retail Sales prints are unadjusted for inflation, which likely means a strong monthly print shows growth in underlying sales volume. 

17th Jun 2025

Key takeaway: Advance estimates of US retail food and services sales for May 2025 were US$724Bn, down 0.9% from the previous month. After a strong print for the month of March, Retail sales prints have been soft for both April and May with the latest month data showing a significant fall in both headline and core. The unanimous view is that the strong March number might indeed have been on account of tariff front loading. Core retail sales, which excludes motor vehicles and parts, declined 0.3% in May. Retail Control Group Sales, on the other hand, increased 0.4% on a m-o-m basis in May, better than expected. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. Overall, the print was fairly soft. It is also important to note that the couple of months of soft retail sales prints have been on the back of soft CPI and PPI releases over the past 3-4 months. Long bond yields fell in immediate response but overall are still holding up very well, partly due to US debt concerns. 

15th May 2025

Key takeaway: Advance estimates of US retail food and services sales for April 2025 were US$724Bn, up 0.1% from the previous month. The first 2 months of the year had shown relatively weak consumption prints. The Atlanta Fed GDP tracker had also started reflecting negative growth for 1Q 2025. However, at 1.4%, retail sales for the month of March was significantly strong. The latest print also showed that the March print was revised up from 1.4% to 1.7%. However, the latest April Retail Sales growth figure of 0.1% is relatively soft, even though it exceeded consensus expectations of 0% change. The strong March number might indeed have been on account of tariff front loading. Core retail sales, which excludes motor vehicles and parts, grew 0.1% in April. Retail Control Group Sales decreased 0.2% on a m-o-m basis in April. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. Overall, the print was fairly soft. Key to note also that this came on the back of a soft CPI and PPI release. Long bond yields are still holding up very well. 

16th Apr 2025

Key takeaway: Advance estimates of US retail food and services sales for March 2025 were US$735Bn, up 1.4% from the previous month. The first 2 months of the year had shown relatively weak consumption prints. The Atlanta Fed GDP tracker had also started reflecting negative growth for 1Q 2025. However, at 1.4%, retail sales for the month of March has been significantly strong. However, market participants believe the latest strong number might be on account of tariff front loading. We have seen tariff related front loading across sectors including manufacturing as well as exports from other countries including China and Japan. Core retail sales, which excludes motor vehicles and parts, grew 0.5% in March, higher than consensus expectations of 0.4%. A big portion of the increase for the month of March was hence led by motor vehicles and parts which grew 5.3% in March. Once again this might be attributed to the automobile related tariffs. Also, motor vehicles and parts had recorded a decrease of 1.6% in February. Hence the latest data for March might also be a catch up of the previous month’s weak figure. Retail Control Group Sales increased a muted 0.4% on a m-o-m basis in March. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP 

17th Mar 2025

Key takeaway: Personal Consumption in the US has been the main pillar of the stellar economic growth recorded over the past 2 years. In most prior episodes, the consumer buckles down 18-24 months after the start of a rate hiking cycle. However, this economic and monetary policy cycle has been different, primarily in the form of a super resilient US consumer. Economic data in the recent past has been especially soft. There was a significant flutter in markets when the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast showed 1Q 2025 GDP trending at minus 2.8%! Hence, markets were keenly awaiting February’s retail sales data. The latest US Census Bureau Advance Retail Sales release showed headline Retail Sales increased 0.2% in February. Total Retail Sales clocked US$723Bn. Consensus expectations were for an increase of 0.6% and hence this latest release also surprised quite strongly to the downside – similar to the previous number. However, excluding Motor Vehicle and Parts, Core Retail Sales increased 0.3% against consensus expectations for an increase of 0.3%. The bulk of the soft data hence was in Motor Vehicles and Parts sales and Gasoline Sales. In fact, “Retail Control Group” Sales increased a solid 1.0% on a m-o-m basis in February. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. Markets mostly perceived this as a mixed report. However, many must have been relieved to see a still resilient US consumer. 

14th Feb 2025

Key takeaway: Personal Consumption in the US has been the main pillar of the stellar economic growth recorded over the past 2 years. In most prior episodes, the consumer buckles down 18-24 months after the start of a rate hiking cycle. However, this economic and monetary policy cycle has been different, primarily in the form of a super resilient US consumer. The latest US Census Bureau Advance Retail Sales release showed headline Retail Sales fell a massive 0.9% in January. Total Retail Sales clocked US$723Bn. Consensus expectations were for a decrease of 0.2% and hence this latest release also surprised quite strongly to the downside. Excluding Motor Vehicle and Parts, Core Retail Sales also decreased 0.4% against consensus expectations for an increase of 0.3%. Remember that the Retail Sales figures are not adjusted for inflation and CPI recorded for the month of January was 0.5%. So, in real terms, the fall in consumption was even sharper. “Retail Control Group” Sales decreased a solid 0.8% on a m-o-m basis in January. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. Overall, all the key figures from the latest release were significantly lower than expected. Only time will tell whether this marks the start of a sharp slowdown in consumption. It is key to note that we have had a few false starts over the past year as well. 

16th Jan 2025

Key takeaway: The latest US Census Bureau Advance Retail Sales release showed headline Retail Sales posted a solid 0.4% increase in December. Total Retail Sales were US$729Bn – up 3.9% from December 2023. Consensus expectations were for an increase of 0.6% and hence this latest release came a bit lower than expected. Nonetheless, 0.4% growth still demonstrates a resilient consumer and a continuation of the strong consumption story that we have seen so far. Even last month’s Retail Sales were revised upwards from 0.7% to 0.8%. Excluding Motor Vehicle and Parts, Core Retail Sales grew a solid 0.4% but were also slightly below expectations. Remember that the Retail Sales figures are not adjusted for inflation. “Retail Control Group” Sales increased a solid 0.7% on a m-o-m basis in December. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. 

17th Dec 2024

Key takeaway: Headline Retail Sales once again posted an above consensus 0.7% increase in November. Total Retail Sales were US$725Bn – up 3.8% from November. Consensus expectations were for an increase of 0.6%. Even last month’s Retail Sales were revised upwards from 0.4% to 0.5%. Excluding Motor Vehicle and Parts, Core Retail Sales grew a muted 0.2% and were also below expectations. Remember that the Retail Sales figures are not adjusted for inflation. Even though Retail Sales have been fairly soft for the past 6-8 months, they can hardly be said to have collapsed. Consumption is still resilient. The latest Retail Sales numbers have once again surprised markets on the upside. “Retail Control Group” Sales increased 0.4% on a m-o-m basis in November. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. 

15th Nov 2024

Key takeaway: Headline Retail Sales once again posted an above consensus 0.4% increase in October. Total Retail Sales were US$730Bn – up 2.8% from October 2023. More importantly, even last month’s Retail Sales were revised upwards from 0.4% to 0.8%. However, Retail Sales in October were significantly driven by volatile component of Motor Vehicle and Parts. Excluding that component, Core Retail Sales grew a muted 0.1% and was also below expectations. Remember that the Retail Sales figures are not adjusted for inflation. Even though Retail Sales have been fairly soft for the past 6-8 months, they can hardly be said to have collapsed. Consumption is still resilient. The latest Retail Sales numbers have once again surprised markets on the upside. It was also key to note though that “Retail Control Group” Sales decreased 0.1% on a m-o-m basis in October. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. 

17th Oct 2024

Key takeaway: Headline Retail Sales once again posted an above consensus 0.4% increase in September. Total Retail Sales were US$714.4Bn – up 1.7% from September 2023. Core Retail Sales, excluding vehicles and parts, were up 0.5%, also significantly beating consensus estimates of growth of 0.1%. Gasoline sales fell 1.6% given the drop in fuel prices. Remember that the Retail Sales figures are not adjusted for inflation. Even though Retail Sales have been fairly soft for the past 6-8 months, they can hardly be said to have collapsed. Consumption is still resilient. The latest Retail Sales numbers have once again surprised markets on the upside. “Retail Control Group” Sales increased a solid 0.7% on a m-o-m basis in September. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. Post the latest release of US Retail Sales, the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker shows Q3 GDP growth to likely print at 3.4% – a very strong number!

17th Sep 2024

Key takeaway: Headline Retail Sales posted an above consensus 0.1% increase in August. Total Retail Sales were US$710.8Bn – up 2.1% from August 2023. Core Retail Sales, excluding vehicles and parts, were up 0.1%, which was lower than consensus expectations of 0.2%. Gasoline sales fell 1.2% given the drop in fuel prices. Remember that the Retail Sales figures are not adjusted for inflation. Even though Retail Sales have been fairly soft for the past 6-8 months, they can hardly be said to have collapsed. Consumption is still resilient. “Retail Control Group” Sales increased a modest 0.3% on a m-o-m basis in August. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. Post the latest release of US Retail Sales, the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker shows Q3 GDP growth to likely print at 3% – a very strong number!

15th Aug 2024

Key takeaway: Barring a few months, Retail Sales have generally been soft for the past 6 to 8 months and a trend is likely being established here which shows that the consumer is finally starting to bend. However, in a break from the trend of recent months, Retail Sales printed a solidly positive number for the month of July. The latest data release showed Retail Sales increased 1.0% on a m-o-m basis. This was also substantially higher than consensus expectations of a 0.4% increase. Core Retail Sales, excluding vehicles and parts, were up a healthy 0.4%. Excluding gasoline sales, Retail Sales were up 1.0%. Finally, “Retail Control Group” Sales increased a modest 0.3% on a m-o-m basis in July. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. 

16th Jul 2024

Key takeaway: Barring a few months, Retail Sales have generally been soft for the past 6 to 8 months and a trend is likely being established here which shows that the consumer is finally starting to bend. The latest data release showed Retail Sales flat on a m-o-m basis. However, importantly, this was higher than consensus expectations of a 0.3% decrease. Remember, Retail sales data is not adjusted for inflation. Given inflation has been soft in recent months, a flat retail sales number indicates volume sales are either keeping pace or going up. Advance estimates of US retail and food service sales for June 2024 (seasonally adjusted) were US$704.3 Bn. Core Retail Sales, excluding vehicles and parts, was up a healthy 0.4%. Excluding gasoline sales, Retail Sales were up 0.2%. Finally, “Retail Control Group” Sales increased a healthy 0.9% on a m-o-m basis in June. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. 

18th Jun 2024

Key takeaway: Barring a few months, Retail Sales have generally been soft for the past 6 to 8 months and a trend is likely being established here which shows that the consumer is finally starting to bend. On average, Retail Sales have grown only about 0.2% per month for the last 6 months. This is lower than the average rate of monthly inflation growth and an indication that consumption is broadly slowing. Advance estimates of US retail and food service sales for May 2024 (seasonally adjusted) were US$703.1 Bn, 0.1% higher from the previous month. The print was substantially lower than consensus expectations for an increase of 0.3%. Similar to the month before, last month’s (April) Retail Sales number was also revised down from 0.0% to negative 0.2%. Retail spend on gasoline was sharply down 2.2% – mostly reflective of the drop in gasoline prices in May. Core Retail Sales, which excludes motor vehicles and parts, was down 0.1% in May. Excluding gasoline sales, Retail Sales were up 0.3%. Finally, “Retail Control Group” Sales increased 0.4% on a m-o-m basis in May. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. 

15th May 2024

Key takeaway: The Retail Sales report has been a bit of a roller coaster in 2024. The first two months of the year had posted weaker than expected Retail Sales prints. Retail Sales bounced back again in March and now have once again disappointed in April. Advance estimates of US retail and food service sales for April 2024 (seasonally adjusted) were US$705.2 Bn, mostly unchanged from the previous month. The print was substantially lower than consensus expectations of an increase of 0.4%. To top that up, last month’s Retail Sales number was also revised down from 0.7% to 0.6%. Retail spend in almost every category was lower in April. The largest drops were seen in sporting goods, non-store retailers, motor vehicles and parts and furniture stores. Food services and drinking places, the only services category in the report, posted a muted rise of 0.2% after having fallen 0.1% last month. Core retail sales, which excludes motor vehicles and parts, grew a muted 0.2%. However, even that can be somewhat attributed to the price rise in gasoline. Excluding gasoline sales, Retail Sales dropped 0.2%. Finally, Finally, “Retail Control Group” Sales decreased 0.3% on a m-o-m basis in April. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP nowcast for Q2 was reduced from 4.2% to 3.8%. Treasury yields were sharply lower in response to the weak retail sales print as well as the lower than expected CPI print. 

15th Apr 2024

Key takeaway: After 2 months of weaker Retail Sales prints, we are once again back in familiar territory helmed by a strong American consumer. Advance estimates of US retail and food service sales for March 2024 (seasonally adjusted) were US$709.6 Bn, up 0.7% from the previous month. The print was also substantially higher than consensus expectations of an increase of 0.4%. To top that up, last month’s Retail Sales number was also revised up from 0.6% to 0.9%. With a hotter than expected Retail Sales print, treasury yields were substantially higher in the morning session. Core retail sales, which excludes motor vehicles and parts, was up 1.1% m-o-m. Core Retail Sales were also substantially higher than consensus expectations of 0.5%. Finally, “Retail Control Group” Sales increased 1.1% on a m-o-m basis in March. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. 

14th Mar 2024

Key takeaway: Bad news usually tends to come in bunched together! And in this case it has come so for two consecutive months. Similar to January, February has also posted a higher than expected CPI and PPI and lower than expected Retail Sales. The data is now causing a legitimate concern of slowing growth at a time when prices remain elevated. Advance estimates of US retail and food service sales for February 2024 (seasonally adjusted) were US$700.7 Bn, up 0.6% from the previous month, but more importantly lower than consensus expectations of an increase of 0.8%. The January retail sales number was also revised down substantially from minus 0.6% to minus 1.1%. January was the first substantial negative print since March 2023. Moreover, Retail Sales for December 2023 had also revised down from +0.6% to +0.4%. The US consumer has been the pillar supporting the robust growth in the US economy in 2023. Any signs of faltering consumer demand will be closely watched. While the expectation remains that as excess savings from the pandemic fiscal largesse dwindles and the lagged effects of rate hikes will come through and finally we will see some softness in consumption, it still might be too early to call the start of a trend here. However, two months is definitely more of a trend than one month! Core retail sales, which excludes motor vehicles and parts, was up 0.3% m-o-m. Core Retail Sales were also lower than consensus expectations. Finally, “Retail Control Group” Sales was unchanged on a m-o-m basis in February. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. 

15th Feb 2024

Key takeaway: Bad news usually tends to come in bunched together! On the back of a disappointing inflation print, US Retail Sales for January also surprised markets on the downside. Advance estimates of US retail and food service sales for January 2024 (seasonally adjusted) were US$700 Bn, down 0.8% from the previous month. This is the first substantial negative print since March 2023. Moreover, Retail Sales for December 2023 was also revised down from +0.6% to +0.4%. The US consumer has been the pillar supporting the robust growth in the US economy in 2023. Any signs of faltering consumer demand will be closely watched. While the expectation remains that as excess savings from the pandemic fiscal largesse dwindles and the lagged effects of rate hikes will come through and finally we will see some softness in consumption, it might be too early to call the start of a trend here. Core retail sales, which excludes motor vehicles and parts, were also down by 0.6% m-o-m. Finally, “Retail Control Group” Sales also declined by 0.4% in January. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. 

17th Jan 2024

Key takeaway: US Retail Sales data has once again surprised to the upside, thanks to the resilient American consumer. This makes it two months in a row and the Fed will be taking good notice of this data point. 2 Year Treasury yields immediately spiked 10 basis points in response to the release. The market based probability of a rate cut in March also consequently moved lower. Advance estimates of US retail and food services for December 2023 were $771bn, up 0.6% from the previous month and up 5.6% from December 2022. Even core retail sales, which excludes motor vehicles and parts, were up a solid 0.4%. The holiday shopping spend seems robust and that will continue to reflect in GDP and broader economic data. Most categories were up with motor vehicles and parts, non-store retailers and clothing goods recording the largest increase. The expectation though remains that as excess savings from the pandemic fiscal largesse dwindles and the lagged effects of rate hikes come through, we are bound to see some softness in consumption. However, the US consumer has kept surprising one and all. Finally, “Retail Control Group” Sales also increased by 0.8% in December. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. 

14th Dec 2023

Key takeaway: After recording a decline in the month of October for the first time in 6 months, Retail Sales once again surprised on the upside in November. Advance estimates of US retail and food services for November 2023 were $705bn, up 0.3% from the previous month and up 4.1% from November 2022. Even core retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and parts and gasoline, were up a solid 0.6%. The holiday shopping spend seems robust and that will continue to reflect in GDP and broader economic data. Most categories were up with food services, non-store retailers and sporting goods recording the largest increase. The expectation though remains that as excess savings from the pandemic fiscal largesse dwindles and the lagged effects of rate hikes come through, we are bound to see some softness in consumption. However, the US consumer has kept surprising one and all. Finally, “Retail Control Group” Sales also increased by 0.4% in November. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. 

15th Nov 2023

Key takeaway: Retail Sales fell on a m-o-m basis for the first time since March as consumers cut spending on motor vehicles, furniture and miscellaneous store items. While this is the first decrease since March, it is too early to declare it alarming. Firstly September Retail Sales were revised up from 0.7% in the earlier print to 0.9% – which made the base effect larger for the October print. Second, Retail Sales excluding motor vehicle and parts and gasoline sales, still grew 0.1%. Third, both prints – headline Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales – beat consensus expectations. However, it is also important to bear in mind that, as excess savings from the pandemic fiscal largesse dwindles and the lagged effects of rate hikes come through, we are bound to see some softness in consumption. It is the extent of this softness that is the key unknown. Finally, “Retail Control Group” Sales also increased by 0.2% in October. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. 

17th Oct 2023

Key takeaway: This feels like deja vu! Once again, for the nth time in recent history, Retail Sales have surprised on the upside. The US consumer has kept surprising everyone with its resilience! The latest data showed Retail Sales grew a substantial 0.7% m-o-m in September. Consensus expectations were an increase of 0.3%. Even last month’s Retail Sales data was revised upwards. Unlike last month though, the increase in September retail sales was more uniform across categories. August Retail Sales, after excluding motor vehicle and parts and gasoline, had grown by a more subdued 0.3% m-o-m (revised). However, retail sales in September, after excluding motor vehicle parts and gasoline, still grew at a solid 0.6%. Miscellaneous store retailers saw the largest jump of 3.0%. The bottom line is that Retail Sales have remained far more resilient than anyone expected and that has been a massive tailwind for the US economy. Finally, “Retail Control Group” Sales also increased by a solid 0.6% in September. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. 

14th Sep 2023

Key takeaway: Once again, for the nth time in recent history, Retail Sales have surprised on the upside. The US consumer has kept surprising everyone with its resilience! The latest data showed Retail Sales in July grew a substantial 0.6% m-o-m. Consensus expectations were an increase of 0.2%. However, the latest retail sales data release was more nuanced than past months. After excluding motor vehicle and parts and gasoline sales, retail sales grew by a more subdued 0.2% m-o-m. More specifically, almost every category, excluding gasoline, either declined or decelerated from the previous month of July. Furniture and home furnishings declined 1.0%, Sporting goods declined 1.6%, etc. Yet, the bottom line is that Retail Sales have remained far more resilient than anyone expected and that has been a massive tailwind for the US economy. Finally, “Retail Control Group” Sales increased by a more subdued 0.1% in Aug. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. 

15th Aug 2023

Key takeaway: One word. Massive! Retail Sales once again surprised on the upside – and this time – massively. The US consumer has kept surprising everyone with their resilience and the resilient consumption story is the only one that firmly stands between the US and a recession! The latest data showed Retail Sales in July grew a massive 0.7% m-o-m. Consensus expectations were an increase of 0.4%. Even after stripping out the volatile motor vehicles and parts, Retail sales grew a massive 1.0% when consensus expectations were minus 0.3%. Even last month’s headline retail sales number was revised up from 0.2% to 0.3%. As a recap for the year –  after an exceptional January reading, Retail Sales were down both in Feb (minus 0.2%) as well as Mar (minus 0.7%). However, Retail Sales bounced back up again in April (+0.4%). And that was followed up by 0.5% in May and 0.3% in June. Taken together Retail Sales have held up spectacularly well in 1H 2023 and that showed up in the overall GDP numbers for the first half. It looks like that trend has continued in July. Finally, “Retail Control Group” Sales increased by a huge 1.0% in Jul (when consensus expectations were + 0.2%!). The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. 

18th Jul 2023

Key takeaway: The latest data showed Retail Sales in June grew a meagre 0.2% m-o-m. The initial perception was that this was a fairly weak retail sales print. However, the details in the report provide a different picture. Most importantly, the previous month’s number was revised up from 0.3% to 0.5%. As a recap for the year –  after an exceptional January reading, Retail Sales were down both in Feb (minus 0.2%) as well as Mar (minus 0.7%). However, Retail Sales bounced back up again in April (+0.4%). And that was followed up by 0.5% in May and 0.2% in June. Taken together Retail Sales have held up spectacularly well in 1H 2023 and that is showing up in the overall GDP numbers. A large part of previous months’ retail sales growth had been in the volatile components of motor vehicles and parts and building materials. So it was logical that motor vehicles and building materials moderated a bit in June. However, core categories like furniture, home furnishings, electronics grew solidly in June. Finally, “Retail Control Group” Sales increased by a huge 0.6% in Jun (when consensus expectations was for a drop of 0.3%!). The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. 

15th Jun 2023

Key takeaway: The latest data showed Retail Sales in May grew 0.3% m-o-m. This follows an equally decent 0.4% m-o-m growth registered in the previous month of April. While 500 basis points of interest rate hikes and dwindling pandemic excess savings are gradually having an effect on Retail Sales, the numbers still remain high enough to warrant concerns over persistent inflation. It is worth repeating Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin’s line from a recent CNBC interview – “Demand is cooling, but is not cold yet”.  After an exceptional January reading, Retail Sales were down both in Feb (minus 0.2%) as well as Mar (minus 0.7%). However, Retail Sales bounced back up again in April (+0.4%). And that has been followed up by 0.3% in May. However, a large part of this growth was seen in 2 segments – Motor vehicles and parts and Building Materials. Also, Core Retail Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts grew at a modest 0.1% in May. Gasoline stations registered a large fall of 2.6% m-o-m. Compared to the prior year, Gasoline sales were lower by 20% in May! Finally, “Retail Control Group” Sales increased by 0.2% in May. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. 

16th May 2023

Key takeaway: I would like to borrow Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin’s line from a recent CNBC interview to describe this month’s Retail Sales report. “Demand is cooling, but is not cold yet”.  After an exceptional January reading, Retail Sales were down both in Feb (minus 0.2%) as well as Mar (minus 0.7%). However, Retail Sales bounced back up again in April (+0.4%). At the same time it is also key to note that it was significantly lower than consensus expectations (0.8%). When you view this headline number (which is not adjusted for inflation) with the CPI m-o-m increase in April of 0.4%, it becomes clearer than Retail Sales on a real basis have probably remained flat. The impact of tighter monetary policy on consumption is probably being evidenced more clearly now. Barring the exceptional January and this latest April print, retail sales have fallen m-o-m in 4 of the past 6 months. Core retail sales, which exclude automobile, also grew 0.4% and in line with consensus expectations. Gasoline stations registered a large fall of 0.8%. This is despite average prices at the pump being higher in April compared to May. “Retail Control Group” Sales increased by 0.7% in Apr. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. 

14th Apr 2023

Key takeaway: After an exceptional January reading, Retail Sales were down both in Feb (minus 0.2%) as well as Mar (minus 1.0%). The impact of tighter monetary policy on consumption is probably being evidenced more clearly now. Barring the exceptional January, retail sales have fallen m-o-m in 4 of the past 5 months. Unlike the previous month, the fall in sales was quite broad based in March with drops in autos, furniture, electronics, food and beverage, gasoline, clothing and general merchandise. Food services and drinking places, which had been the pocket of strength in retail sales, also grew only 0.1% m-o-m. “Retail Control Group” Sales fell by 0.3% in Mar. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. Even though March registered a fall in “Retail Control Group Sales”, the large increases registered in Jan and Feb, make it certain that the consumption number in the 1Q GDP release will be a robust one. 

15th Mar 2023

Key takeaway: After an exceptional January reading, Retail Sales were down once again in Feb (minus 0.4%).  However a large part of the m-o-m decrease was due to 1.8% drop in automobiles. Excluding autos, core retail sales fell a much more modest 0.1%. While the data continued to point to a weakening trend, the strength of the consumer still remains a key point. Food services and drinking places registered a fall of 2.2% after rising a huge 15.3% in Jan. Similar to some of the other Jan economic data, market participants were keen to observe revisions to Jan Retail Sales data in the Feb data release. However, contrary to many market participant expectations, Retail sales for Jan were revised up from 3.0% to 3.2%. “Retail Control Group” Sales were also up 0.5% in Feb. This accompanied another upward revision in Retail Control Group Sales from 1.7% to 2.3% in Jan. The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP. It is little surprise that the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker points to Q1 GDP growth forecast of 3.2%!

15th Feb 2023

Key takeaway: Retail sales kept up with this week’s trend of massive upside surprises. A m-o-m growth rate of 3% is simply stellar and almost as good as the 500K jobs print of January. In a period where inflation is slowing or sometimes even negative on a m-o-m basis, retail sales jumping up 3% is astounding. The growth was also very broad with almost every category recording a substantial number. For instance – Food Services – the only services category in Retail Sales – grew a massive 7.2% m-o-m and 25% y-o-y. Needless to say, there were some other factors which led to this massive jump including milder weather in Jan and substantially low prints in Nov and Dec. Yet, 3% is way too high for a Fed trying to conquer inflation. “Retail Control Group” Sales were also up 1.7% (compared to minus 0.7% in December). The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP

18th Jan 2023

Key takeaway: It is worth reading the first 3 sentences of the last month’s key takeaway once again! Monetary policy works with a long and variable lag. Often repeated but so true. 425 basis points of tightening will eventually show up in all – economic growth, employment and consumer spending. Retail Sales fell a substantial 1.1% m-o-m in December 2022. Moreover, even last month’s number was revised down from minus 0.6% to minus 1.0%. Almost every category of the Retail Sales report was down on a m-o-m basis with gasoline stations, furniture and department stores recording the largest declines. It is also interesting to note the “Retail Control Group” Sales were down 0.7% (compared to minus 0.2% in November). The Retail Control Group is all sales, excluding receipts from auto dealers, building-materials retailers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores. This filtered number is a more precise method of gauging consumer spending, and consumer spending is a large component of U.S. GDP

15th Dec 2022

Key takeaway: Monetary policy works with a long and variable lag. Often repeated but so true. 425 basis points of tightening will eventually show up in both economic growth, employment and consumer spending. After a surprisingly strong October, Retail Sales were back down to a softening trend in November. The value of overall retail sales fell 0.6% in November. But the fall was also broad based with 9 of the 13 retail categories registering a fall. Yet, the fact remains that the US consumer has held up better than expected over the past 9 months – and hence the Fed would like to see a continual easing of demand for more than a few months to be convinced that their monetary tools have been effective in the fight against inflation.      

16th Nov 2022

Key takeaway: After relatively steady declines in US Retail Sales growth, October was an exception when Retail Sales grew at a significant 1.3%. After positive CPI and PPI surprises, the high retail sales number is a dampener for markets since it is not something the Fed would like to see. More importantly, sales grew across all categories including motor vehicles. Supply chains in the auto space are easing a bit and resilient demand can keep the pressure on goods inflation. Furniture, home furnishings, food and beverage all grew at a significant enough rate which raises concern. A recent Fed study had estimated excess savings from the pandemic period to be approximately US$2.5tn and further estimated that three fourths of those savings still exist in consumer’s pockets.      

14th Oct 2022

Key takeaway: US Retail Sales growth is in a steady decline for sure. After a few months of positive surprises, retail sales were down in September (0% m-o-m). But once again, goods consumption is simply not falling at a rate that the Fed would be happy to see. However, the decline in retail sales was across most categories in September. Furniture, building materials, electronics, automobiles, gas stations, sporting goods were all down on a m-o-m basis. While wages have been going up, it is obvious that they have lagged price growth and the slowdown in consumption is bound to occur. The question remains – how soon?     

15th Sep 2022

Key takeaway: Retail Sales growth is in a steady decline for sure. But I dont think it is as swift as the Fed would like it to be. Core retail sales, which strips out auto, fell 0.3% m-o-m in August. But headline retail sales actually grew 0.3% m-o-m. Goods consumption, on a nominal basis, kept increasing. Those huge inventories at Walmart and Target are still being purchased after all! Or may be the Retailers aren’t slashing prices enough! Either ways consumption remaining steely keeps the pressure on inflation. Even gasoline sales did not fall much (down 4.2%) in comparison to the fall in gas prices m-o-m. One last point to note though, was that July reading was revised substantially lower.    

17th Aug 2022

Key takeaway: After first falling in May 2022, US Retail Sales have – for a 2nd month in a row – surprised to the upside. This continues a string of positive data surprises in the US over the last 30 days. Retail Sales, on a nominal basis, were flat year on year. However, Core Retail Sales – which strips out automobiles and parts, were a positive 0.4% on the back of a positive 0.9% last month June. What’s even more interesting is that the large drag on m-o-m Retail Sales was Gasoline which fell 1.8% (remember pump prices fell in July). So, retail sales excluding gasoline have grown fairly well. The 2 final points to remember are – Consumption holding up will not sit well with the aggressive Fed. And finally, it is important to remember that Retail Sales are reported in nominal terms and real consumer spending continues to trend lower (seen from US GDP releases as well).   

15th Jul 2022

Key takeaway: US Retail Sales once again surprised to the upside. Recollect that May was the first in recent months that US Retail Sales had registered a m-o-m decline – indicating wilting consumer demand. June registered a surprisingly strong number. Yet, it is important to remember that Retail Sales are reported in nominal terms and real consumer spending continues to trend lower (seen from US GDP releases as well).   

15th Jun 2022

Key takeaway: Finally a number that shows the wilting consumer. US retail sales had been surprisingly resilient for the previous 4 months. Needless to say, since retail sales numbers are not adjusted for inflation, real consumer spending was lower than what the headline suggested. But today finally sales in nominal terms are down m-o-m. Even April was revised down from 0.9% to 0.7%.   

17th May 2022

Key takeaway: The US Consumer theme holds consistent – month after month ! Similar to previous months, April retail sales report also shows a slowdown in growth rate of consumption. The increase of 0.9% can mostly be attributed to price increases and not general consumption increase. Nonetheless, the report once again shows that consumers are still resilient. This has been the most important data point supporting the “no immediate recession case” but also means the Fed’s job keeps getting harder! 

14th Apr 2022

Key takeaway: Similar to last month, March retail sales report also shows a slowdown in growth rate of consumption. The increase of 0.5% can mostly be attributed to price increases and not general consumption increase. Nonetheless the report shows that consumers are still resilient and Q1 numbers have held up quite well (Feb retail sales numbers were also revised up sharply)

16th Mar 2022

Key takeaway: US Retail Sales slowed down quite a bit in Feb 2022. Still 0.3% m-o-m growth is not bad and conveys the message that the US consumer is healthy and still has substantial disposable income / savings. Note that January 22 Retail Sales increase was also revised upwards from 3.8% to 4.9%! Based on the 1Q data seen so far, it seems like a decent probability that 1Q GDP growth will look good and consequently the earnings results of companies will outperform as well. But it is imperative to keep track of any slowdown in consumption. 

16th Feb 2022

Key takeaway: 

  • The Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MARTS) provides an early indication of sales of retail and food service companies
  • Frequency: Monthly since 1953; Reported data are for activity taking place during the previous month. Forms are mailed 5 working days before the end of the reporting month and responses are due 2 working days after the reporting month. Smaller and medium sized retailers participate in the survey for about two years and then are replaced with new firms.
  • Advance Monthly Retail Sales reports are released about 9 working days after the close of the reference month
  • US Retail Sales grew 3.8% in Jan 2022against an expectation of 2%
  • Key to note that Retail Sales are not stripped for the inflation effect. In simple words, the increase in dollar value of retail sales can be substantially attributed to the increased in prices. Sales volume might not have improved substantially.
  • Data on inflation adjusted personal spending comes out as a part of the Personal Income and Outlays Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • Nonetheless, the large January 2021 retail sales number also means that Q1 GDP will likely receive a strong boost!

The Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey provides an early indication of sales of retail and food service companies. It is key to note that Retail Sales are not stripped for the inflation effect. In other words, the increase in dollar value of retail sales can also be substantially attributed to the increased in prices.

Census.gov