US Macro Updates

The One Stop Portal for US Macroeconomic Data. Simplified and Summarized! 

We simplify and summarize key data so that you don’t have to spend hours reading confusing and long media releases. Read key economic releases and major events here in under 2 minutes. And we will explain the key takeaway for you. Stay informed and form a robust view on macroeconomic matters to aid your successful investment decisions

Durable Goods Orders

28th Jul 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: Durable goods orders are a closely watched leading indicator of business investment because firms typically commit to large, long-lived purchases only when they are confident in the economic outlook, making swings in orders a reliable early signal of future capital expenditure and industrial activity. The ex-transport measure is particularly valuable for analysts because it strips out orders for commercial aircraft, which are notoriously lumpy and can distort the headline figure from month to month, leaving a cleaner read on underlying demand trends across the broader manufacturing sector. Over the past one to two years, both measures have navigated a choppy environment shaped by shifting interest rate expectations, uneven global demand, and ongoing supply chain normalization, with core orders broadly holding their ground even as borrowing costs remained elevated. The 0.59% monthly gain in durables ex-transport to 220.94bn in June suggests that business investment intentions remain constructive, with firms continuing to place orders for equipment and machinery despite persistent financing pressures. The stronger 0.89% rise in Capital goods ex defence and ex transport to 85.09bn added further momentum to the headline figure this month. Taken together, these readings point to a manufacturing sector that is holding up reasonably well, supporting the case for positive contributions from private nonresidential investment to GDP growth in the quarters ahead. If this pace of order growth is sustained, it would provide an encouraging signal for capex spending plans heading into the second half of 2026.

Durables ex-Transport increased 0.59% in Jun to 220.94bn.
Capital goods ex defence ex transport – increased 0.89% in Jun to 85.09bn.

27th Jun 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: Durable goods orders serve as a closely watched leading indicator of business investment, since firms typically commit to large-ticket purchases of machinery, equipment, and other long-lived goods only when they hold a degree of confidence in future demand. The ex-transport measure is particularly useful for analysts because it strips out the notoriously volatile aircraft and defense orders that can swing the headline figure dramatically from one month to the next, offering a cleaner read on underlying capital spending momentum. Over the past one to two years, both measures have navigated a choppy environment shaped by shifting interest rate expectations, uneven global demand, and periodic supply chain disruptions, making sustained upside readings all the more meaningful. The May 2026 data show a broadly encouraging picture, with the core ex-transport gauge rising 1.34% to 218.59bn. Capital goods orders excluding defence and aircraftroxse 1.59% to 84.03bn. Both data points suggest that businesses are willing to commit capital despite an uncertain macro backdrop. Strength in core orders typically feeds through into nonresidential fixed investment with a lag of several months, which would provide a supportive underpinning for GDP growth heading into late 2026. Manufacturing output and industrial capacity utilization should also benefit if this order momentum is sustained, adding to signs that the goods-producing sector is holding its footing. Taken together, the May figures represent a modestly hawkish data point for growth expectations, though one month does not establish a trend and subsequent releases will be critical in confirming whether this pickup has durability.

Durables ex-Transport increased 1.34% in May to 218.59bn.
New Orders – Capital Goods ex Defence and Transport increased 1.59% in May to 84.03bn.

29th May 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: Durable goods orders are a closely watched leading indicator because they capture business commitments to purchase long-lived equipment and machinery, offering an early read on capital expenditure intentions before spending actually flows through the economy. The headline All Durables figure, however, is frequently distorted by lumpy aircraft and defense orders, which is why analysts place greater weight on the ex-transport core measure as a cleaner signal of underlying business investment demand. Over the past one to two years, core durables have traced a broadly resilient path even as the headline series whipsawed with volatile transport swings, suggesting that manufacturers and businesses have continued committing to equipment investment despite a tighter monetary policy environment. In April, the core ex-transport reading rose 1.10% to 215.08bn pointing to genuine underlying momentum in business investment and is a constructive signal for near-term capex and industrial output. The headline durable goods also posted a large 7.9% m-o-m increase, reflecting a sharp jump up in the volatile aircraft or defense component. On the other hand, Capital goods orders non defence ex transport dropped 1.1%. Taken together, the data suggest that the manufacturing sector retains forward momentum at the durable goods level, which should provide modest support to business fixed investment in the coming quarters. If the core trend holds, the contribution from equipment investment to GDP growth in the second quarter looks firm, though any sustained softening in headline orders warrants monitoring as a potential early warning of broader slowdown.

Durables ex-Transport increased 1.10% in Apr to 215.08bn.
Capital goods non defence ex transport decreased 1.08% in Apr to 82.43bn.

30th Apr 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: Durable goods orders are a closely watched leading indicator of business investment because they capture forward-looking commitments by firms to purchase long-lived equipment and machinery, signalling confidence in future demand. The ex-transport measure is particularly valuable as a core reading, stripping out volatile commercial aircraft orders that can swing the headline figure sharply from month to month and obscure the underlying trend in business spending. Over the past one to two years, durable goods data have reflected a broadly resilient but uneven manufacturing sector, with core capital goods orders providing intermittent signs of stabilisation amid elevated interest rates and cautious corporate budgets. The 0.87% monthly gain in the ex-transport measure for March is an encouraging signal that underlying business investment appetite remains intact, suggesting firms have not materially pulled back on equipment and technology spending despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. The stronger 3.29% rise in all durables orders points to a meaningful pickup in headline demand, likely supported by a rebound in transportation-related commitments that amplifies the overall reading. Together, these figures are broadly supportive of sustained capital expenditure in the near term and suggest that the manufacturing sector is contributing positively rather than acting as a drag on industrial output. For GDP, a combination of firming core orders and a strong headline print reinforces expectations of continued, if measured, growth in private nonresidential fixed investment through the second quarter of 2026.

Durables ex-Transport increased 0.87% in Mar to 212.15bn.
New Orders – All Durables increased 3.29% in Mar to 82.9bn.

Durables ex-Transport – March 2026: +0.87% (212.15bn)
New Orders – All Durables – March 2026: +3.29% (82.90bn)

7th Apr 2026

Key takeaway: The US Census Bureau’s Advance Report on Durable Goods for February 2026, released today (April 7) after a delay from its originally scheduled date, pointed to continued softness in manufacturing orders. New orders for manufactured durable goods fell $4.4 billion, or 1.4%, to $315.5 billion in February — down four of the last five months — following a 0.5% decline in January. The result came in slightly worse than the consensus expectation of a 1.1% decline, though on a year-on-year basis new orders remain 7.3% above February 2025 levels. The headline weakness was once again driven by the volatile transportation component: transportation equipment fell 5.4% to $106.1 billion, with non-defence aircraft and parts plunging 28.6% to $19.2 billion. Stripping out transportation, the picture was more constructive — excluding transportation, new orders rose 0.8%, with support from primary metals and machinery. The closely watched “core capex” gauge — non-defence capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a key proxy for business investment intentions — rose 0.6% month-on-month and was up 5.1% year-on-year, offering a reassuring signal that underlying business spending plans remain intact even as the headline figure was dragged down by the aerospace volatility. On the shipments side, durable goods shipments actually increased 1.3% to $319.2 billion in February, up five of the last six months, with transportation equipment leading the gain. 

13th Mar 2026

Key takeaway: Data released by the U.S. Census Bureau showed that new orders for manufactured durable goods were virtually unchanged in January, declining by $0.1 billion to $321.2 billion, following a 0.9% decrease in December. The flat reading was largely driven by a 0.9% decline in orders for transportation equipment, which more than offset increases in several other manufacturing categories. Orders excluding transportation increased by 0.4%, while orders excluding defense rose by 0.5% during the month. Meanwhile, shipments of manufactured durable goods increased by 0.6% to $314.2 billion, extending the gains recorded in recent months. Orders for Capital goods excluding defence and transportation were also unchanged on the month. Taken together, the latest report suggests that manufacturing activity remained relatively stable at the start of the year, although the weakness in transportation orders continues to weigh on overall durable goods demand. 

18th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: (Delayed release due to govt shutdown) – The latest Census Bureau report for the month of December showed headline Durable Goods Orders decreased by 1.4% to US$319 Bn. This followed a 5.4% increase last month. Headline durable goods orders tend to be volatile m-o-m, mostly on account of the volatile transportation segment. Core durable goods, which exclude transportation and provide a more stable picture of underlying strength in manufacturing, increased a strong 0.9%. Core durable goods orders have remained relatively robust through most of 2024 and 2025. Lastly, capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also increased 0.6% in December.  

26th Jan 2026

Key takeaway: (Delayed release due to govt shutdown) – The latest Census Bureau report for the month of November showed headline Durable Goods Orders increased by 5.3% to US$323 Bn. This followed a 2.1% decline last month. Headline durable goods orders tend to be volatile m-o-m, mostly on account of the volatile transportation segment. Core durable goods, which exclude transportation and provide a more stable picture of underlying strength in manufacturing, increased 0.5%. Core durable goods orders have remained relatively robust through most of 2024 and 2025. Lastly, capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also increased 0.7% in November.  

23rd Dec 2025

Key takeaway: (Delayed release due to govt shutdown) – The latest Census Bureau report for the month of October showed headline Durable Goods Orders decreased by 2.2% to US$307 Bn. This followed a 0.7% increase last month. Headline durable goods orders tend to be volatile m-o-m, mostly on account of the volatile transportation segment. Core durable goods, which exclude transportation and provide a more stable picture of underlying strength in manufacturing, increased 0.2%. Core durable goods orders have remained relatively robust through most of 2024 and 2025. Lastly, capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also increased 0.5% in Oct.  

26th Nov 2025

Key takeaway: (Delayed release due to govt shutdown) – The latest Census Bureau report for the month of September showed headline Durable Goods Orders increased by 0.5% to US$313 Bn. This followed a 3.0% increase last month. Headline durable goods orders tend to be volatile m-o-m, mostly on account of the volatile transportation segment. Core durable goods, which exclude transportation and provide a more stable picture of underlying strength in manufacturing, increased a decent 0.6%. Core durable goods orders have remained relatively robust through most of 2024 and that trend has mostly continued into 2025. Lastly, capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also increased 0.9% in Sep.  

25th Sep 2025

Key takeaway: The latest Census Bureau report for the month of August showed headline Durable Goods Orders increased by 2.9% to US$312 Bn. This followed a 2.7% decrease last month. Headline durable goods orders tend to be volatile m-o-m, mostly on account of the volatile transportation segment. This month as well, the volatile transportation segment contributed a large part of the increase. Transportation orders increased a substantial 7%. However, even without the sharp increase in the transportation category, core durable goods increased a decent 0.4%. Both headline and core durable goods were significantly higher than consensus expectations, which had called for a decrease in both categories. Core durable goods orders have remained relatively robust through most of 2024 and that trend has mostly continued into 2025. That is key to note, especially since the Fed has initiated a new rate cutting cycle. Generally, even though survey and sentiment data has been worsening, it has not yet reflected in hard economic data. The latest GDP release for 2Q was also revised upwards and shows continued strong growth in the US economy. Though not stellar, core durable goods orders continue to remain relatively resilient. Lastly, capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also increased 0.6% in Aug.  

26th Aug 2025

Key takeaway: The latest Census Bureau report for the month of July showed headline Durable Goods Orders decreased by 2.8% to US$303 Bn. This followed a 9.4% decrease last month. Headline durable goods orders tend to be volatile m-o-m, mostly on account of the volatile transportation segment. This month as well, the volatile transportation segment contributed a large part of the decrease. Transportation orders decreased a substantial 9.7%. However, core durable goods, which excludes transport, increased a strong 1.1% against consensus expectations of an increase of 0.2%. Core durable goods orders have remained relatively robust through most of 2024 and that trend has mostly continued into 2025. Generally, even though survey and sentiment data has been worsening, it has not yet reflected in hard economic data. Though not stellar, core durable goods orders continue to remain relatively resilient. Lastly, capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also increased 1.1% in July.  

25th Jul 2025

Key takeaway: The latest Census Bureau report for the month of June showed headline Durable Goods Orders decreased sharply by 9% to US$311 Bn. This followed a 16% increase last month. Headline durable goods orders tend to be volatile m-o-m, mostly on account of the volatile transportation segment. This month as well, the volatile transportation segment contributed a large part of the decrease. Transportation orders decreased a substantial 22%. However, core durable goods, which excludes transport, also increased 0.2% against consensus expectations of an increase of 0.1%. While the increase was not substantial, Core durable goods orders have remained relatively robust through most of 2024 and that trend has mostly continued into 2025. Generally, even though survey and sentiment data has been worsening, it has not yet reflected in hard economic data. Though not stellar, durable goods orders continue to remain relatively resilient. Lastly, capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also decreased 0.7% in June.  

26th Jun 2025

Key takeaway: The latest Census Bureau report for the month of May showed headline Durable Goods Orders increased sharply by a 16% to US$343 Bn. This followed a 6.6% decrease last month. Headline durable goods orders tend to be volatile m-o-m, mostly on account of the volatile transportation segment. This month as well, the volatile transportation segment contributed a large part of the increase. Transportation orders increased a whopping 48%. However, core durable goods, which excludes transport, also increased a healthy 0.5% against consensus expectations of an increase of 0.1%. Core durable goods orders have remained relatively robust through most of 2024. Generally, even though survey and sentiment data has been worsening, it has not yet reflected in hard economic data. Though not stellar, durable goods orders continue to remain relatively resilient. Lastly, capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also increased a solid 1.7% in May.  

27th May 2025

Key takeaway: The latest Census Bureau report for the month of April showed headline Durable Goods Orders decreased sharply by a 6% to US$296 Bn. Once again, the volatile transportation segment contributed a large part of the decrease. Transportation orders decreased by 17%. However, core durable goods, which excludes transport, increased 0.2% against consensus expectations of a drop of 0.1%. Core durable goods orders have remained relatively robust through most of 2024. Generally, soft data on the economy has been worsening, it is not yet reflecting in hard data. Though not stellar, durable goods orders continue to remain relatively resilient. Lastly, capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation decreased 1.3% in April.  

24th Apr 2025

Key takeaway: The latest Census Bureau report for the month of March showed headline Durable Goods Orders increased by a massive 9.2% to US$315 Bn.Once again, the volatile transportation segment contributed a large part of the increase. Transportation orders increased by 27%. However, core durable goods, which excludes transport, was mostly unchanged from previous month. Core durables goods orders coming in softer than expected was a bit of a worry. Yet, it is too early to call a trend. It is equally important to note that underlying core orders have remained relatively robust through most of 2024. Generally, soft data on the economy has been worsening, it is not yet reflecting in hard data. Lastly, capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation increased o.1% in March.  

26th Mar 2025

Key takeaway: The latest Census Bureau report for the month of February showed headline Durable Goods Orders increased by 0.9% to US$289 Bn.Once again, the volatile transportation segment contributed a large part of the increase. Transportation orders increased by 1.5%. However, core durable goods, which excludes transport, also increased a healthy 0.7%. Both figures were better than consensus expectations. Admittedly, some of the sharp increases in durable goods orders might be caused by the tariff front loading. However, it is equally important to note that underlying core orders have remained relatively robust through most of 2024. This is just another data point which adds to the conclusion that while the soft data on the economy has been worsening, it is not yet reflecting in hard data. Lastly, capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation declined o.3% in February.  

27th Feb 2025

Key takeaway: The latest Census Bureau report for the month of January showed headline Durable Goods Orders increased by 3.1% to US$286 Bn.The volatile transportation segment contributed to most of the increase. Transportation orders increased by 9.8%. Excluding transport, core durable goods orders were unchanged at 0%, against a consensus expectations of an increase of 0.2%. Even though headline Durable Goods orders have been very volatile, underlying core orders have remained relatively robust, even though the latest month was unchanged and the past 2-3 months have been softer than economists expected. Lastly, capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation reported a healthy increase of  0.8% in January.  

28th Jan 2025

Key takeaway: The latest Census Bureau report for the month of December showed headline Durable Goods Orders decreased by 2.2% to US$276 Bn.The volatile transportation segment contributed to most of the decrease. Transportation orders decreased by 7.4%. Excluding transport, core durable goods increased 0.3%, against a consensus expectations of an increase of 0.4%. Even though headline Durable Goods orders have been very volatile, underlying core orders have remained relatively robust. That continued to be the case with the latest report as well. Lastly, capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also reported a healthy increase of  0.5% in December.  

23rd Dec 2024

Key takeaway: The latest Census Bureau report for the month of November showed headline Durable Goods Orders decreased by 1.1% to US$285.1 Bn. Once again the volatile transportation segment contributed to most of the decrease. Transportation orders decreased by 2.9%. Excluding transport, core durable goods decreased only 0.1%, against a consensus expectations of an increase of 0.3%. Even though headline Durable Goods orders have been very volatile, underlying core orders have remained relatively robust. Lastly capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also reported a increase of  0.7% in November.  

27th Nov 2024

Key takeaway: The latest Census Bureau report for the month of October showed headline Durable Goods Orders increased by US$0.7Bn or 0.2% to US$286.6 Bn. Once again the volatile transportation segment contributed to most of the increase. Transportation orders increased by 0.5%. Excluding transport, core durable goods increased only 0.1%, against a consensus expectations of an increase of 0.2%. Even though headline Durable Goods orders have been very volatile, underlying core orders have remained relatively robust. Lastly capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also reported a drop of  0.2% in October.  

25th Oct 2024

Key takeaway: The latest Census Bureau report for the month of September showed headline Durable Goods Orders decreased by US$2.2Bn or 0.8% to US$284.8 Bn. Once again the volatile transportation segment contributed to most of the fall. Transportation orders decreased a substantial 3.1%. Excluding transport, core durable goods increased a decent 0.4%, against a consensus expectations of a decrease of 0.1%. Even though headline Durable Goods orders have been very volatile, underlying core orders have remained relatively robust. Lastly capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also reported an increase of 0.5% in September.  

26th Sep 2024

Key takeaway: The latest Census Bureau report for the month of August showed headline Durable Goods Orders were mostly unchanged at US$289 Bn. Once again the volatile transportation segment contributed the flat number. Transportation orders decreased a substantial 0.8%. Excluding transport, core durable goods increased a decent 0.5%, against a consensus expectations of 0.1%. Lastly capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also reported an increase of 0.2% in August.  

26th Aug 2024

Key takeaway: The latest Census Bureau report for the month of July showed headline Durable Goods Orders increased a substantial 9.9% m-o-m. Once again the volatile transportation segment contributed to much of the rise. Excluding transport, core durable goods decreased 0.2%, against a consensus expectations of 0.0%. Lastly capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also reported an decrease of 0.1% in July.  

25th Jul 2024

Key takeaway: The latest Census Bureau report for the month of June showed headline Durable Goods Orders decreased a substantial 6.6% m-o-m. Once again the volatile transportation segment contributed to much of the fall. Excluding transport, core durable goods increased a decent 0.5%, against a consensus expectations of an increase of 0.2%. Lastly capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also reported an increase of 1.0% in June.  

27th Jun 2024

Key takeaway: The latest Census Bureau report for the month of May showed headline Durable Goods Orders increased a weak 0.1% m-o-m. Moreover, last month’s number was also revised down from 0.7% to 0.2%. Core durable goods orders, which strip out the volatile transportation equipment number, decreased 0.1% m-o-m – against a consensus expectations of an increase of 0.2%. Lastly capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also reported a weak minus 0.6% in May. This key indicator of strength in the goods / manufacturing industry has generally been quite weak in recent months. On the balance, while headline numbers have suggested that durable goods orders were relatively healthy, a look at past revisions weakens the case for a major rebound in manufacturing.  

24th May 2024

Key takeaway: The latest Census Bureau report for the month of April showed headline Durable Goods Orders increased 0.7% m-o-m. Transportation equipment, which tends to be volatile, increased from US$95 Bn in March to US$96 Bn in April – an increase of 1.2%. After stripping out the volatile transportation component, core durable goods orders increased 0.4% in April. Previous month’s number was mostly unchanged compared to the downward revisions that we have seen for most of the previous months. More importantly though, the print of 0,4% was higher than consensus expectations of 0.1%. Lastly capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also reported a weak 0.3% in April. The downward revisions also continued for this indicator. On the balance, while headline numbers suggested that durable goods orders were healthy, a look at past revisions weakens the case for a major rebound in manufacturing. This key indicator of the goods sector has mostly demonstrated a weak bias.  

24th Apr 2024

Key takeaway: The latest Census Bureau report for the month of March showed headline Durable Goods Orders increase 2.6% m-o-m. Like most months, a large part of the increase was driven by transportation which increased from US$89 Bn in February to US$96 Bn in March. After stripping out the volatile transportation component, core durable goods orders increased a muted 0.2% in March. Moreover, in line with the trends seen through most of 2023, previous month headline and core durable goods order numbers were also revised downwards. Consensus expectations were for a 0.3% rise in core durable goods orders. Hence the reported number was slightly lower than consensus and hence construed as a weak report. Lastly capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also reported a weak 0.2% in March. The downward revisions also continued for this indicator. On the balance, while headline numbers suggested that durable goods orders were healthy, a look at past revisions weakens the case for a major rebound in manufacturing.  

26th Mar 2024

Key takeaway: After a couple of continuous months of declines, Durable Goods Orders rebounded to increase 1.4% in the month of February. Like most months, a large part of the increase was driven by transportation which increased from US$87.5 Bn to US$90.3 Bn in February. However, even after stripping out the volatile transportation component, core durable goods orders increased a healthy 0.5% in February. Moreover, in line with the trends seen through most of 2023, previous month headline durable goods order numbers were also revised downwards. Consensus expectations were for a 0.4% rise in core durable goods orders. Hence at least the preliminary read came in better than expected. Lastly capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation increased a substantial 0.7% in February. However, last month’s number was revised down to minus 0.4% from +0.1%. On the balance, while headline numbers suggested that durable goods orders were healthy, a look at past revisions weakens the case for a major rebound in manufacturing.  

27th Feb 2024

Key takeaway: Headline Durable Goods Orders fell sharply to start the new year with a drop of 6.1% m-o-m in January. Similar to previous months a large part of the decline was attributable to decrease in transportation orders (a drop of 16$ from $107Bn to $90Bn). However, core Durable Goods orders which strips out the transportation component also came in softer than expected at -0.3%. Moreover, in line with the trends seen through most of 2023, previous month order numbers were also revised downwards. Consensus expectations were for a 0.2% rise in January. Lastly capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation increased a modest 0.1% in January. Last month’s number was also revised down to minus 0.6% from +0.3%. On the balance this was a very soft Durable Goods Orders report. Yet, it is still not indicative of a recessionary environment in the economy. 

25th Jan 2024

Key takeaway: Durable Goods Orders once again came in relatively strong in the latest print for December 2023. Headline Durable goods orders fell sharply on the back of a drop in transportation orders causing the headline number to be unchanged on a m-o-m basis at approx US$295 bn. Transportation equipment orders decreased 0.9% to US$106 bn on a SA basis. However, the strength was once again seen in Core durable goods orders which strips the volatile transport component which increased 0.6% to  US$188.7 bn. Lastly capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also increased a modest 0.3% in December. One of the key points to note here has been the revisions of the initial data releases. Core durable goods orders have been revised downwards most of the months in 2023. However, there wasn’t much of a change in the November data. On the balance though, durable goods orders and business spending on capex still remains fairly resilient and are still not indicative of a major slowdown in the economy. 

22nd Dec 2023

Key takeaway: Durable Goods Orders rebound sharply in November on the back of a large jump in transportation orders. Headline durable goods orders increased a sizeable 5.4%. Transportation equipment orders increased 15.3% to US$108bn on a SA basis. Core durable goods orders which strips the volatile transport component also increased 0.5% to  US$187.5bn. Lastly capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also increased a substantial 0.8% in November. However, similar to past months, the key takeaway remains the revisions of the initial data releases. Core durable goods orders have been revised downwards most of the months in 2023. Even the September number was revised downwards from 0.6% to 0.2% and the October number was revised down from 0.0% to -0.3%. Capital goods orders have also been revised downwards through most of 2023. On the balance though, durable goods orders and business spending on capex still remains fairly resilient and are still not indicative of a major slowdown in the economy. 

22nd Nov 2023

Key takeaway: Durable Goods Orders fell sharply in October on the back of a slump in transportation orders. Headline durable goods orders decreased a sizeable 5.4%. Transportation orders declined 14.8% to US$92bn on a SA basis. Core durable goods orders which strips the volatile transport component remained flat at approx. US$187bn. Lastly capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also declined a modest 0.1% in October. However, similar to past months, the key takeaway remains the revisions of the initial data releases. Core durable goods orders have been revised downwards most of the months in 2023. Even the September number was revised downwards from 0.6% to 0.2%. Capital goods orders have also been revised downwards through most of 2023. On the balance though, durable goods orders and business spending on capex still remains fairly resilient and are still not indicative of a major slowdown in the economy. 

26th Oct 2023

Key takeaway: Durable Goods Orders jumped sharply in September on the back of strong growth in transportation orders. Headline durable goods orders increased a sizeable 4.7%. Transportation orders increased 12.7% to US$109bn on a SA basis. Similarly, core durable goods orders which strips the volatile transport component also increased a healthy 0.5% to US$188bn. Lastly capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also increased a substantial 0.6% in September. Even the August number was revised upwards from 0.9% to 1.1%. On the balance, durable goods orders and business spending on capex still remains fairly resilient and are still not indicative of a major slowdown in the economy. 

27th Sep 2023

Key takeaway: With rates once again on the rise, all eyes are now turned to watching signs of accelerating softness in the economy. However, the latest release of Durable Goods Orders and Shipments once again was better than the market expected. Firstly, headline manufactured durable goods orders increased 0.2% against a consensus expectations of a drop of 0.5%. Even after stripping the volatile transport component, core durable goods orders increased 0.4% against consensus expectations of 0.1%. Lastly, capital goods orders ex defence ex transportation also increased a substantial 0.9%. The better than expected durable goods orders print likely adds to an already robust 3rd quarter GDP. However, similar to the past months, it is key to note that July data was also revised downwards. Core capital goods orders have been revised downwards for the past consecutive 6 months. Nonetheless, on an overall basis, business spending still seems relatively strong and far from recessionary levels. However, as consumption slows into the next few quarters, it is more likely than not that we will see a slowdown in business spending. 

24th Aug 2023

Key takeaway: The latest release of Durable Goods Orders and Shipments was an interesting one. Firstly, headline durable goods new orders fell a substantial 5.2% m-o-m. But, as is usually the case, the drop was led by the volatile transportation sector. While there isn’t a 100% correlation between Boeing data and government figures, data released by Boeing for July orders had also registered a substantial fall from the previous month. This drop also needs to be viewed in the context of the substantial positive prints of the last few months. Durable goods orders have been quite resilient and it also ties in with the large contribution from non-residential domestic investment we have evidenced in the latest 2Q GDP release. Core durable goods orders, which strip the volatile transportation component, increased 0.5% m-o-m to US$186bn. Core durable goods orders have registered substantial positive prints throughout 2023. However data on core capital goods orders suggests a slightly different story. While core capital goods (which are manufacturers new orders for non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft and an important gauge of business spending) increased 0.1% m-o-m in July, prints on this data point have been revised downwards for the past consecutive 5 months. Nonetheless, on an overall basis, business spending still seems relatively strong and far from recessionary levels. However, as consumption slows into the next few quarters, it is more likely than not that we will see a slowdown in business spending. 

27th Jul 2023

Key takeaway: It was a day when almost every single economic data point surprised to the upside. The US 1Q advance estimate was released on the same day and it surprised massively to the upside. 1Q GDP was expected to grow at 1.8%. Instead the economy grew at 2.4%. A large part of the growth in GDP was attributable to Non-residential fixed investment. In similar fashion, Durable Goods Orders once again surprised substantially to the upside. Lets look at the details. Firstly, headline Durable goods, which includes the volatile transportation segment, increased a substantial 4.7% m-o-m in Jun. This makes 4 months in a row of substantial m-o-m increases in durable goods orders. Even the May number was revised up from 1.7% to 2.0%. Interestingly, even after adjusting for the transportation segment, core durable goods orders increased 0.6% m-o-m when consensus expectations said no change at 0.0%. Lastly, core capital goods (which are manufacturers new orders for non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft and an important gauge of business spending) also grew a positive 0.2% in Jun (when consensus expectations were a negative 0.1%). 

27th Jun 2023

Key takeaway: Durable Goods Orders once again surprised substantially to the upside. Lets look at the details. Firstly, headline Durable goods, which includes the volatile transportation segment, increased 1.7% m-o-m in May. This makes 3 months in a row of substantial m-o-m increases in durable goods orders. Boeing had reported 69 aircraft orders in May – about twice as many as the previous month. However, even after adjusting for the transportation segment, core durable goods orders increased 0.6% m-o-m when consensus expectations were for a decrease of 0.1%. Lastly, core capital goods (which are manufacturers new orders for non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft and an important gauge of business spending) also grew a substantial 0.7% in May. 

26th May 2023

Key takeaway: In line with some of the strong economic data seen in the past few weeks (upward GDP revisions, strong PMI data), the key economic data point of Durable Goods Orders also came in significantly higher and surprised to the upside. Durable Goods Orders had recorded a strong 3.2% in March and came in positive 1.1% in April. While the increase is relatively lower compared to March, it is a strong increase nonetheless. Similar to previous months though, the increase was mostly driven by the transportation segment (up 3.7% to $97.6bn). Core durable goods, which strips out the volatile transportation segment, decreased 0.2% and continued a relatively weak trend of the past year. Yet, the key point to note is overall durable goods data while significantly lower than 2021/22 levels, is still far from past recessionary levels. Finally, core capital goods (which are manufacturers new orders for non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft and an important gauge of business spending) also grew a substantial 1.4% in April to $74bn. This is one of the largest increases recorded over the past few months. While one month does not make a trend, market participants will be keen to watch if core capital goods orders and shipments turns stronger from here on.

26th Apr 2023

Key takeaway: After 2 months of consecutive declines, Durable Goods New Orders were up 3.2% in March. In contrast the Feb number was revised further down from minus 1.0% to minus 1.2%. Once again similar to December the increase in headline was led by the more volatile transportation sector. Excluding transportation, core new orders were up 0.3% – not a significant number – but a positive number nonetheless. Once again, the key point to understand about this macro data point is that the Durable Goods space has undoubtedly become softer compared to 2021 and early 2022. Yet these numbers are far from recessionary levels. Lastly, Non Defence Capital Goods excluding Transportation, which is the most important data point that investors look for was minus 0.4% in March. This new orders and shipments number is more reflective of the GDP calculations for Business Investment for the quarter and hence is tracked closely. The February read was also revised lower from an increase of 0.2% to a decrease of 0.7%. It will be key to watch if these new orders sustain further in 2023. The trend for the past 6-9 months has been unmistakably down.

24th Mar 2023

Key takeaway: Headline durable goods orders fell 1% m-o-m in February. Core durable goods orders which strips transport were flat 0.0% m-o-m. Undoubtedly these are soft numbers and with the exception of December durable goods orders have generally been softening. However, the change in orders is far from the typical trough seen in past recessions. Usually the most important data point that investors look for in this advance report is Non Defence Capital Goods excluding Transportation. This new orders and shipments number is more reflective of the GDP calculations for Business Investment for the quarter and hence is tracked closely. In February, this number increased 0.2% m-o-m compared to an increase of 0.3% in January. The January number was also revised down from an initial +0.8% in the advance report to +0.3% in the final report. It will be key to watch if these new orders sustain further in 2023. The trend for the past 6-9 months has been unmistakably down.

27th Feb 2023

Key takeaway: Like every other economic indicator for January, durable goods orders also surprised to the upside. Headline durable goods orders were down 4.6% m-o-m. However, the headline number includes the more volatile transportation component. For instance – headline durable goods orders had increased a large 5.1% in December. That was significantly attributable to transportation (Boeing had reported 55 orders in January compared to 250 in December). Core durable goods increased 0.7% m-o-m compared to a forecast of 0.1% and last month’s reported figure of minus 0.4%. However, usually the most important data point that investors look for in this advance report is the Non Defence Capital Goods excluding Transportation number. This new orders and shipments number is more reflective of the GDP calculations for Business Investment for the quarter and hence is tracked closely. In January, this number increased 0.8% m-o-m compared to a decline of 0.3% in December. It will be key to watch if these new orders sustain further in 2023. The trend for the past 6-9 months has been unmistakably down.

Durable Goods Orders reflect new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of long lasting manufactured goods. The change in the total value of new orders is measured and release on the US Census Bureau’s website. New orders data is release twice a month. The first report is an advance report typically released at the end of the next month. It is followed up with the final data on new orders release in the Manufacturers shipments, inventories and orders report release in the first week of the subsequent month. The Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) survey provides broad-based, monthly statistical data on economic conditions in the domestic manufacturing sector. The survey measures current industrial activity and provides an indication of future business trends.

Durable Goods Orders