US Macro Updates

17th Jul 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: Housing starts and building permits are closely watched leading indicators because residential construction activity signals future economic momentum, influencing GDP, employment, materials demand, and consumer spending on furnishings and home goods. Over the past two years, both series have broadly struggled under the weight of elevated mortgage rates and tight credit conditions, with starts and permits oscillating in a range broadly between 1.2mn and 1.5mn as builders balanced demand uncertainty against land and labour costs. Permits, which lead starts by several months, had been drifting lower in recent months, suggesting builders were growing more cautious about committing to new projects. Against that backdrop, the June data presents a mixed picture: a sharp 19.02% surge in housing starts to 1.427mn points to a meaningful acceleration in actual ground-breaking activity, potentially reflecting a release of pent-up supply or improved builder confidence, while the 3.05% decline in permits to 1.367mn raises a note of caution about whether that momentum can be sustained into the second half of 2026. The divergence between rising starts and falling permits is worth monitoring, as permits now sit below starts, which historically can signal a moderation in construction activity in the coming months. On the positive side, the jump in starts will provide a near-term boost to residential investment within GDP and support employment in construction trades, which remain an important source of wage growth for middle-income workers. The overall picture is one of tentative resilience in housing supply, but the softening permit trend warrants attention as a potential leading warning sign.

Housing Starts increased 19.02% in Jun to 1.427mn.
Building Permits decreased 3.05% in Jun to 1.367mn.

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16th Jun 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: Housing starts and building permits are closely watched leading indicators because residential construction feeds directly into GDP, drives employment across construction and related industries, and signals builder confidence in future demand. Over the past one to two years, both metrics have followed a broadly softening trajectory as elevated mortgage rates and persistent affordability pressures weighed on new home demand, though permits have generally held above starts, suggesting a pipeline of future activity that has not fully translated into ground breakings. The latest May 2026 data shows a sharp deterioration in starts, which fell 15.45% month over month to 1.177 million units, a decline significant enough to raise near-term concerns about the pace of residential investment. Building permits, by contrast, declined only modestly by 0.91% to 1.41 million units, meaning the gap between permitted and started units has widened, which could reflect builders pausing construction in response to financing costs, labor constraints, or softening sales traffic rather than a wholesale pullback in planned activity. A drop of this magnitude in starts will weigh on residential fixed investment, which is a direct component of GDP, and is likely to translate into reduced hours and employment in the construction sector in the months ahead. The divergence between permits and starts is worth monitoring closely, as a sustained failure to convert permits into starts would eventually lead builders to scale back permitting activity as well. Taken together, the May data points to a meaningful near-term headwind for construction-driven economic activity, even if the relatively stable permit reading offers some hope that the slowdown may be partly temporary.

Housing Starts decreased 15.45% in May to 1.177mn.
Building Permits decreased 0.91% in May to 1.41mn.

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21st May 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: Housing starts and building permits are closely watched leading indicators because residential construction feeds directly into GDP, drives employment across a wide range of trades and materials industries, and signals household confidence in future economic conditions. Over the past one to two years, both series have faced persistent headwinds from elevated mortgage rates and construction costs, keeping activity broadly subdued relative to pre-tightening cycle norms, with starts and permits oscillating in a relatively narrow range without establishing a clear recovery trend. The April 2026 data presents a mixed but cautiously encouraging picture: building permits surged 5.80% month-over-month to 1.442 million, suggesting that developers are becoming more willing to commit to future construction, which typically leads actual starts by one to several months. However, housing starts slipped 2.79% to 1.465 million, indicating that groundbreaking activity pulled back even as forward-looking permit issuance accelerated, a divergence that warrants close monitoring in the months ahead. The strength in permits is a positive signal for near-term residential investment and suggests some pipeline rebuilding that could translate into GDP support in the second half of 2026. Employment in residential construction remains sensitive to whether permit momentum converts into actual starts, and a sustained pickup would provide a meaningful boost to construction payrolls. Overall, the April data tilts modestly optimistic, but the dip in starts is a reminder that the housing recovery remains uneven and fragile.

Housing Starts decreased 2.79% in Apr to 1.465mn.
Building Permits increased 5.80% in Apr to 1.442mn.

Housing Starts – April 2026: -2.79% (1.465mn)
Building Permits – April 2026: +5.80% (1.442mn)

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30th Apr 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: Housing starts and building permits are closely watched leading economic indicators because residential construction activity feeds directly into GDP growth, drives employment across construction and related industries, and signals future supply in the housing market. Over the past one to two years, both metrics have navigated a challenging environment of elevated mortgage rates and tighter financial conditions, with starts and permits generally oscillating in a range that reflects cautious builder sentiment rather than any sustained directional trend. The March 2026 data presents a notably mixed picture, with housing starts surging 10.77% month-over-month to 1.502 million, a strong reading that suggests builders moved aggressively to break ground on new projects. However, the concurrent 10.79% decline in building permits to 1.372 million is a meaningful counterweight, as permits are a forward-looking measure of construction intent and their drop implies that the pipeline of future starts may thin in the coming months. This divergence between strong current activity and weakening forward authorization is a pattern worth monitoring closely, as it can sometimes indicate that builders are completing previously approved projects without committing to new ones at the same pace. On the positive side, the robust starts figure will provide a near-term boost to residential investment within GDP and support employment in construction and adjacent sectors such as materials and manufacturing. Taken together, the data paints a picture of short-term strength but raises questions about whether that momentum can be sustained through the second half of 2026.

Housing Starts increased 10.77% in Mar to 1.502mn.
Building Permits decreased 10.79% in Mar to 1.372mn.

Housing Starts – March 2026: +10.77% (1.502mn)
Building Permits – March 2026: -10.79% (1.372mn)

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12th Mar 2026
Key takeaway: The latest U.S. residential construction data point to a mixed housing backdrop. Housing starts rose 7.2% month-on-month to an annualised pace of about 1.49 million units, driven primarily by a sharp rebound in multi-family construction (+29%), while single-family starts fell 2.8% and remain down on a year-on-year basis, reflecting affordability constraints and elevated costs. In contrast, building permits—a forward-looking indicator—declined 5.4% to roughly 1.38 million units, with single-family permits also edging lower and showing a double-digit YoY decline, signalling softer pipeline activity ahead. Overall, the data suggest that while headline construction activity has been temporarily supported by volatile multi-family swings, underlying momentum—especially in the more cyclical single-family segment—remains weak amid high mortgage rates, labour shortages, and cost pressures. If residential construction continues to weaken, it will be a drag on GDP growth and also might contribute to rising unemployment in this key cyclical sector of the economy. It is also worth noting that Home Builder sentiment is the lowest since 2022. Also it is key to note that we haven’t yet seen any sharp employment reduction in the Residential Construction sector.  

• Building permits decreased 5.4% in Jan to a SA annual rate of 1.376mn units.
• Housing starts increased 7.2% in Jan to a SA annual rate of 1.487mn units

18th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: (Delayed release due to govt shutdown) – Housing construction data has been one of the most delayed statistics in the aftermath of the US government shutdown. US housing construction data is a critical data point to evaluate especially as a leading indicator on the health of the overall economy. After a relatively steady 2023, Building permits had fallen in 1H 2024 but recovered once again in the 2nd half of 2024. Construction data has been volatile on a m-o-m basis, but a weakening trend has taken hold through most of 2025. The latest release from the Census Bureau contained data for both November and December. Building permits stood at an annualized level of 1.448mn in December. That is slightly higher than levels through most of 2025. Housing Starts, on the other hand, stood at an annualized level of 1.404mn in December. That is also slightly higher than levels seen through most of 2025. On the balance, both housing starts and building permits have shown a declining trend in 2025, but they are far from crisis levels. If residential construction continues to weaken, it will be a drag on GDP growth and also might contribute to rising unemployment in this key cyclical sector of the economy. It is also worth noting that Home Builder sentiment is the lowest since 2022. Also it is key to note that we haven’t yet seen any sharp employment reduction in the Residential Construction sector.     

• Building permits increased 4.3% in Dec to a SA annual rate of 1.448mn units.
• Housing starts increased 6.2% in Dec to a SA annual rate of 1.404mn units

9th Jan 2026

Key takeaway: (Delayed release due to govt shutdown) – Housing construction data has been one of the most delayed statistics in the aftermath of the US government shutdown. US housing construction data is a critical data point to evaluate especially as a leading indicator on the health of the overall economy. After a relatively steady 2023, Building permits had fallen in 1H 2024 but recovered once again in the 2nd half of 2024. Construction data has been volatile on a m-o-m basis, but a weakening trend has taken hold through most of 2025. The latest release from the Census Bureau contained data for both September and October. Building permits stood at an annualized level of 1.412mn in October. That is slightly higher than levels through most of 2025. Housing Starts, on the other hand, stood at an annualized level of 1.246mn in October. That is slightly lower than levels seen through most of 2025. On the balance, both housing starts and building permits have shown a declining trend in 2025, but they are far from crisis levels. If residential construction continues to weaken, it will be a drag on GDP growth and also might contribute to rising unemployment in this key cyclical sector of the economy. It is also worth noting that Home Builder sentiment is the lowest since 2022. Also it is key to note that we haven’t yet seen any sharp employment reduction in the Residential Construction sector.     

• Building permits decreased 0.2% in Oct to a SA annual rate of 1.412mn units.
• Housing starts decreased 4.6% in Oct to a SA annual rate of 1.246mn units

17th Sep 2025

Key takeaway: US housing construction data is a critical data point to evaluate especially as a leading indicator on the health of the overall economy. After a relatively steady 2023, Building permits had fallen in 1H 2024 but recovered once again in the 2nd half of 2024. Construction data has been volatile on a m-o-m basis since the end of last year. But a weakening trend seems to be taking hold once again. Housing construction has been a bit weak for the past 3-4 months. The latest data for the month of August demonstrated a continuing downward trend in housing construction. Building permits decreased in August, approx. 3.7% to an annualized level of 1.312mn. Single family building units also decreased from 875K in July to 856K in August. Building permits remain at around the lowest level since March 2023. Housing Starts also decreased, by 8.5% to an annualized level of 1.307mn. Single family housing starts also fell 7.0% from 957K to 890K. If residential construction continues to weaken, it will be a drag on GDP growth and also might contribute to rising unemployment in this key cyclical sector of the economy. It is also worth noting that Home Builder sentiment is the lowest since 2022. An equally important point to note is that Total housing units completed data from the Census Bureau also indicates that the annualized rate of completed housing units has declined from a high of 1.7mn in mid 2024 to around 1.5mn now. Though, the latest data for the month of August showed completed houses at an annualized rate of 1.6mn. The gap between completed housing annualized rate and housing starts continues to be relatively high though it has fallen from even higher levels seen in late 2024. This will continue to remain a data point to monitor going forward. Also it is key to note that we haven’t yet seen any sharp employment reduction in the Residential Construction sector.     

• Building permits decreased 3.7% in Aug to a SA annual rate of 1.312mn units.
• Housing starts decreased 8.5% in Aug to a SA annual rate of 1.307mn units

19th Aug 2025

Key takeaway: US housing construction data is a critical data point to evaluate especially as a leading indicator on the health of the overall economy. After a relatively steady 2023, Building permits had fallen in 1H 2024 but recovered once again in the 2nd half of 2024. Construction data has been volatile on a m-o-m basis since the end of last year. But a weakening trend seems to be taking hold once again. Housing construction has been a bit weak for the past 3-4 months. However, the latest data for the month of July surprised on the upside once again. Even though Building Permits were weak, Housing Starts rose substantially. Building permits decreased in July, approx. 2.8% to an annualized level of 1.354mn. Single family building units increased marginally from 866K in June to 870K in July. This remains at around the lowest level since March 2023. On the other hand, Housing Starts  increased sharply, by 5.2% to an annualized level of 1.428mn. Single family housing starts also rose 2.8% from 913K to 939K. The gap between Housing completions and Housing starts has once again widening in recent months, with the latest data being an aberration. Inventory of completed houses now stands at the highest level since 2009. If residential construction continues to weaken, it will be a drag on GDP growth and also might contribute to rising unemployment in this key cyclical sector of the economy. It is also worth noting that Home Builder sentiment is the lowest since 2022. An equally important point to note is that Total housing units completed data from the Census Bureau also indicates that the annualized rate of completed housing units has declined from a high of 1.7mn in mid 2024 to around 1.5mn now. In other words, the gap between completed housing annualized rate and housing starts was higher in mid 2024 than it is now. This will continue to remain a data point to monitor going forward. Also it is key to note that we haven’t yet seen any sharp employment reduction in the Residential Construction sector.     

• Building permits decreased 2.8% in Jul to a SA annual rate of 1.354mn units.
• Housing starts increased 5.2% in Jul to a SA annual rate of 1.428mn units

18th Jul 2025

Key takeaway: US housing construction data is a critical data point to evaluate especially as a leading indicator on the health of the overall economy. After a relatively steady 2023, Building permits had fallen in 1H 2024 but recovered once again in the 2nd half of 2024. Construction data has been volatile on a m-o-m basis since the end of last year. However, a weakening trend seems to be taking hold once again. Housing construction has been a bit weak for the past 3-4 months. Building permits increased marginally in June, approx. 0.2% to an annualized level of 1.397mn. Single family building units declined from 899K in May to 866K in June – the lowest level since March 2023. Similarly, overall Housing Starts also increased, by 4.6% to an annualized level of 1.321mn. The gap between Housing completions and Housing starts has once again widening. Inventory of completed houses now stands at the highest level since 2009. If residential construction continues to weaken, it will be a drag on GDP growth and also might contribute to rising unemployment in this key cyclical sector of the economy. It is also worth noting that Home Builder sentiment is the lowest since 2022. An equally important point to note is that Total housing units completed data from the Census Bureau also indicates that the annualized rate of completed housing units has declined from a high of 1.7mn in mid 2024 to around 1.5mn now. In other words, the gap between completed housing annualized rate and housing starts was higher in mid 2024 than it is now. This will continue to remain a data point to monitor going forward. Also it is key to note that we haven’t yet seen any sharp employment reduction in the Residential Construction sector.     

• Building permits increased 0.2% in Jun to a SA annual rate of 1.397mn units.
• Housing starts decreased 4.3% in Jun to a SA annual rate of 1.321mn units

18th Jun 2025

Key takeaway: US housing construction data is a critical data point to evaluate especially as a leading indicator on the health of the overall economy. After a relatively steady 2023, Building permits had fallen in 1H 2024 but recovered once again in the 2nd half of 2024. Construction data has been volatile on a m-o-m basis since the end of last year. However, a weakening trend seems to be taking hold once again. Housing construction has been a bit weak for the past 2-3 months. Building permits fell sharply once again in May after having fallen the previous month in April. Overall building permits declined 2% to an annualized level of 1.393mn – comparable to the levels last seen in mid 2024 and prior to that during Covid 2020. Single family building units declined from 923K in April to 898K in May – the lowest level since May 2023. Similarly, overall Housing Starts also declined sharply, by 9.8% to an annualized level of 1.256mn. The gap between Housing completions and Housing starts is once again widening. Inventory of completed houses now stands at the highest level since 2009. If residential construction continues to weaken, it will be a drag on GDP growth and also might contribute to rising unemployment in this key cyclical sector of the economy. It is also worth noting that Home Builder sentiment is the lowest since 2022. An equally important point to note is that Total housing units completed data from the Census Bureau also indicates that the annualized rate of completed housing units has declined from a high of 1.7mn in mid 2024 to around 1.5mn now. In other words, the gap between completed housing annualized rate and housing starts was higher in mid 2024 than it is now. This will continue to remain a data point to monitor going forward.      

• Building permits decreased 2.0% in May to a SA annual rate of 1.393mn units.
• Housing starts decreased 9.8% in May to a SA annual rate of 1.256mn units

16th May 2025

Key takeaway: US housing construction data is a critical data point to evaluate especially as a leading indicator on the health of the economy. After a relatively steady 2023, Building permits had fallen in 1H 2024. However, since then construction data has posted fairly resilient numbers once again and has been on a slight uptrend. The monthly prints have been choppy though. Building Permits in April were at a SA annual rate of 1.412mn. That was 4.7% below the March level of 1.481mn. Building Permits for Single Family units, which have mostly been on a rise in recent months, were at 922K, 5.1% below the previous month. Multi family permits also increased 4% from the previous month. The drop in single family housing, which is the larger of the 2 components, has been especially sharp and substantial. It will be worth watching this level closely over the next few months. Housing Starts posted slightly better numbers. Starts increased by 1.6% in the month April to an annualized level of 1.61mn units. However, most of the increase came from the multi family segment. Single Family Housing Starts were 2.1% below last month at a level of 927K homes. Once again, similar to building permits, single family housing starts have fallen significantly in the past 2 months. Housing completions had been trending upwards indicating a growing glut in the new homes market. The expectation was that a slowdown in housing construction would gradually result in weaker employment in this key cyclical sector of the economy. However over the last quarter of 2024, we have seen the gap between housing completions and housing starts narrow once again as housing starts and building authorizations have inched up while housing completions have trended down. The downward trend of the past 2 months will be a key aspect to monitor going forward.      

• Building permits decreased 4.7% in Apr to a SA annual rate of 1.412mn units.
• Housing starts increased 1.6% in Apr to a SA annual rate of 1.361mn units

17th Apr 2025

Key takeaway: US housing construction data is a critical data point to evaluate especially as a leading indicator on the health of the economy. After a relatively steady 2023, Building permits had fallen in 1H 2024. However, since then construction data has posted fairly resilient numbers once again and has been on a slight uptrend. The monthly prints have been choppy though. Building Permits in March were at a SA annual rate of 1.482mn. That was 1.6% above the February level of 1.459mn. Building Permits for Single Family units, which have mostly been on a rise in recent months, were at 978K, 2% below the previous month. Multi family permits, on the other hand, increased 10% from the previous month. Housing Starts fell sharply by 11.4% in the month March to an annualized level of 1.324mn units. Single Family Housing Starts were 14% below last month at a level of 940K homes. Monthly Housing Starts data has been especially volatile the past 4 months. Hence, it is difficult to read too much into the sharp fall in March data. Housing completions had been trending upwards indicating a growing glut in the new homes market. The expectations was that housing construction slowing down would gradually result in a weaker employment picture in this key cyclical sector of the economy. However over the last quarter of 2024, we have seen the gap between housing completions and housing starts narrow once again as housing starts and building authorizations have inched up while housing completions have trended down. This continues to be a key aspect to monitor going forward.      

• Building permits increased 1.6% in Mar to a SA annual rate of 1.482mn units.
• Housing starts decreased 11.4% in Mar to a SA annual rate of 1.324mn units

18th Mar 2025

Key takeaway: US housing construction data is a critical data point to evaluate especially as a leading indicator on the health of the economy. After a relatively steady 2023, Building permits had fallen in 1H 2024. However, since then construction data has posted fairly resilient numbers once again and has been on a slight uptrend. The monthly prints have been choppy though. Building Permits in February were at a SA annual rate of 1.456mn. That was 1.2% below the January level of 1.473mn. Building Permits for Single Family units, which have mostly been on a rise in recent months, were at 992K, virtually unchanged from the previous month. Housing Starts increased sharply by 11.2% in the month February to an annualized level of 1.501mn units. Single Family Housing Starts were 11.4% above last month at a level of 1,108K homes. Monthly Housing Starts data has been especially volatile the past 3 months. Housing completions had been trending upwards indicating a growing glut in the new homes market. The expectations was that housing construction slowing down would gradually result in a weaker employment picture in this key cyclical sector of the economy. However over the last quarter of 2024, we have seen the gap between housing completions and housing starts narrow once again as housing starts and building authorizations have inched up while housing completions have trended down. This is a key aspect to monitor going forward.      

• Building permits decreased 1.2% in Feb to a SA annual rate of 1.456mn units.
• Housing starts increased 11.2% in Feb to a SA annual rate of 1.501mn units

19th Feb 2025

Key takeaway: US housing construction data is a critical data point to evaluate especially as a leading indicator on the health of the economy. After a relatively steady 2023, Building permits had fallen in 1H 2024. However, since then construction data has posted fairly resilient numbers once again and has been on a slight uptrend. The monthly prints have been choppy though. Building Permits in January were at a SA annual rate of 1.483mn. That was 0.1% above the revised December level of 1.482mn. Building Permits for Single Family units, which have mostly been on a rise in recent months, were at 996K, virtually unchanged from the previous month. Housing Starts fell sharply by 9.8% in the month January to an annualized level of 1.366mn units. Single Family Housing Starts were 8.4% below last month at a level of 993K homes. While Housing Starts fell sharply, it is worth noting that they had risen sharply in the previous month of December. Hence the trace back was expected and the current annualized level is still above the level recorded two month’s prior in November. The most important aspect in IDS US construction data continues to be the widening gap between housing starts and housing completions. Housing completions had been trending upwards indicating a growing glut in the new homes market. The expectations was that housing construction slowing down would gradually result in a weaker employment picture in this key cyclical sector of the economy. However over the last quarter of 2024, we have seen this gap narrowing once again as housing starts and building authorizations have inched up while housing completions have trended down. This is a key aspect to monitor going forward.      

• Building permits increased 0.1% in Jan to a SA annual rate of 1.483mn units.
• Housing starts decreased 9.8% in Jan to a SA annual rate of 1.366mn units

17th Jan 2025

Key takeaway: US housing construction data had been relatively weak and demonstrating a declining trend in the first half of 2024, after peaking in end 2023. Building permits had fallen for 3 months in a row up until May. However, since then construction data has posted fairly resilient numbers once again. However, the prints have been choppy. Building Permits in December were at a SA annual rate of 1.483mn. That was 0.7% below the revised November level of 1.493mn. Building Permits for Single Family units, which have mostly been on a rise in recent months, were 1.6% up from the last month (at an annualized rate of 992K units). The real surprise in the latest release though came in Housing Starts which jumped a massive 15.8% in the month December to an annualized level of 1.499mn units. Single Family Housing Starts were 3.3% above last month at a level of 1.05mn homes. The most important takeaway from the US construction data in recent months has been the widening gap between housing starts and housing completions. Housing completions had been trending upwards indicating a growing glut in the new homes market. The expectations was that housing construction slowing down would gradually result in a weaker employment picture in this key cyclical sector of the economy. However over the last quarter of 2024, we have seen this gap narrowing once again as housing starts and building authorizations have inched up while housing completions have trended down. This is a key aspect to monitor going forward.      

• Building permits decreased 0.7% in Dec to a SA annual rate of 1.483mn units.
• Housing starts increased 15.8% in Dec to a SA annual rate of 1.499mn units

18th Dec 2024

Key takeaway: US housing construction data had been relatively weak and demonstrating a declining trend in the first half of 2024, after peaking in end 2023. Building permits had fallen for 3 months in a row up until May. However, since then construction data has posted fairly resilient numbers once again. However, the prints have been choppy. Building Permits in November were at a SA annual rate of 1.505mn. That was 6.1% above the revised October level of 1.419mn. Building Permits for Single Family units, which have mostly been on a rise in recent months, were 0.1% up from the last month (at an annualized rate of 972K units). In contrast, Housing Starts declined 1.8% in the month November to an annualized level of 1.289mn units. Single Family Housing Starts were 6.4% above last month’s level. The most important takeaway from the US construction data in recent months has been that the gap between housing starts and housing completions has been widening. Housing completions have been trending upwards indicating a growing glut in the new homes market. Private housing completions were at a SA adjusted level of 1.601mn units, approximately 9.2% over last year’s levels. A lower level of building authorisations and housing starts vs a higher level of completions indicates that future construction might be much lower compared to the recent past. This might be a leading indicator of construction employment in the US.     

• Building permits increased 6.1% in Nov to a SA annual rate of 1.505mn units.
• Housing starts decreased 1.8% in Nov to a SA annual rate of 1.289mn units

19th Nov 2024

Key takeaway: US housing construction data had been relatively weak and demonstrating a declining trend in the first half of 2024, after peaking in end 2023. Building permits had fallen for 3 months in a row up until May. However, since then construction data has posted fairly resilient numbers once again. However, the prints have been choppy. Building Permits in October were at a SA annual rate of 1.416mn. That was 0.6% below the revised September level of 1.425mn. Building Permits for Single Family units, which have mostly been on a rise in recent months, were 0.5% up from the last month (at an annualized rate of 968K units). Similar to the Building Permits data, Housing Starts also declined 3.1% in the month October to an annualized level of 1.311mn units. Single Family Housing Starts were 6.9% below last month’s level. The most important takeaway from the US construction data in recent months has been that the gap between housing starts and housing completions has been widening. Housing completions have been trending upwards indicating a growing glut in the new homes market. Private housing completions were at a SA adjusted level of 1.614mn units, approximately 17% over last year’s levels. A lower level of building authorisations and housing starts vs a higher level of completions indicates that future construction might be much lower compared to the recent past. This might be a leading indicator of construction employment in the US.     

• Building permits decreased 0.6% in Oct to a SA annual rate of 1.416mn units.
• Housing starts decreased 3.1% in Oct to a SA annual rate of 1.311mn units

18th Oct 2024

Key takeaway: US housing construction data had been relatively weak and demonstrating a declining trend in the first half of 2024, after peaking in end 2023. Building permits had fallen for 3 months in a row up until May. However, since then construction data has posted fairly resilient numbers once again. However, the prints have been choppy. Building Permits in September were at a SA annual rate of 1.428mn. That was 2.9% below the revised August level of 1.470mn. Building Permits for Single Family units, which have mostly been on a rise in recent months, were 0.3% up from the last month (at an annualized rate of 970K units). Similar to the Building Permits data, Housing Starts also declined 0.5% in the month September to an annualized level of 1.354mn units. Single Family Housing Starts were 2.7% above last month’s level. Housing completions, on the other hand, have been trending upwards indicating a growing glut in the new homes market. Private housing completions were at a SA adjusted level of 1.68mn units, approximately 16% over last year’s levels.    

• Building permits decreased 2.9% in Sep to a SA annual rate of 1.428mn units.
• Housing starts decreased 0.5% in Sep to a SA annual rate of 1.354mn units

18th Sep 2024

Key takeaway: US housing construction data had been relatively weak and demonstrating a declining trend in the first half of 2024, after peaking in end 2023. Building permits had fallen for 3 months in a row up until May. However, since then construction data has posted fairly resilient numbers once again. Building Permits in August were at a SA annual rate of 1.475mn. That was 4.9% above the revised July level of 1.406mn. Building Permits for Single Family units, which have mostly been on a rise in recent months, were also 2.8% up from the last month (at an annualized rate of 967K units). Similar to the Building Permits data, Housing Starts also rose 9.6% in the month August to an annualized level of 1.356mn units. Single Family Housing Starts were also 15.8% above last month’s level. Housing completions, on the other hand, have been trending upwards indicating a growing glut in the new homes market. The overall weakness in the economy and weakening consumer sentiment is also reflecting in the Home Builders Confidence Index which had fallen for 5 months in a row up until August. However, with inflation prints coming in weaker, the Fed rate cuts underway and improving consumer sentiment, the housing market and home builders have their reasons to remain positive as well.   

• Building permits increased 4.9% in Aug to a SA annual rate of 1.475mn units.
• Housing starts increased 9.6% in Aug to a SA annual rate of 1.356mn units

16th Aug 2024

Key takeaway: US housing construction data has been relatively weak of late. Building permits had fallen for 3 months in a row up until May. June, on the other hand, recorded a mild uptick in construction data. However, the latest data release shows another drop in construction in July. Building Permits in July were at a SA annual rate of 1.396mn. That was 4% above the revised June level of 1.454mn. Building Permits for Single Family units, which have mostly been on a rise in recent months, were 0.1% down from the last month (at an annualized rate of 938K units). Similar to the Building Permits data, Housing Starts also fell 6.8% in the month July to an annualized level of 1.238mn units. Single Family Housing Starts were also 14.1% below last month’s level. Housing completions, on the other hand, have been trending upwards indicating a growing glut in the new homes market. The overall weakness in the economy and weakening consumer sentiment is also reflecting in the Home Builders Confidence Index which has fallen for 5 months in a row and is at its lowest for the year. However, even though building permits and housing starts have fallen in recent months, they have remained fairly resilient in the past couple of years. While they have come down from the highs of 2021, they still remain fairly elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. However, the trend of structural shortage of homes in the US  witnessed over the past decade continues even now.   

• Building permits decreased 4.0% in Jul to a SA annual rate of 1.396mn units.
• Housing starts decreased 6.8% in Jul to a SA annual rate of 1.238mn units

17th Jul 2024

Key takeaway: US housing construction data has been relatively weak of late. Building permits had fallen for 3 months in a row up until May. Firstly, mortgage rates have continued to remain elevated and rate cuts have not materialized as the market expected at the start of the year. Inflation reared its ugly head again in 1H 2024. Finally, there are signs of an inventory pile up in the new homes market. On the back of these developments, we are starting to see a slowdown in the US real estate construction industry. June, on the other hand, recorded a mild uptick in construction data. Building Permits in June were at a SA annual rate of 1.446mn. That was 3.4% above the revised May level of 1.399mn. Building Permits for Single Family units, which have mostly been on a rise in recent months, were 2.3% down from the last month (at an annualized rate of 934K units). Similar to the Building Permits data, Housing Starts rose 3.0% in the month June to an annualized level of 1.353mn units. Once again similar to Building Permits, Single Family Housing Starts were also 2.2% below last month’s level. The overall weakness in the economy and weakening consumer sentiment is also reflecting in the Home Builders Confidence Index which has fallen for 4 months in a row and is at its lowest for the year. However, even though building permits and housing starts have fallen in the past 3 months, they have remained fairly resilient in the past couple of years. While they have come down from the highs of 2021, they still remain fairly elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. The trend of structural shortage of homes in the US  witnessed over the past decade continues even now.   

• Building permits increased 3.4% in Jun to a SA annual rate of 1.446mn units.
• Housing starts increased 3.0% in Jun to a SA annual rate of 1.353mn units

20th Jun 2024

Key takeaway: US housing construction data has come in weaker than expected for the 3rd month in a row. We can generally dismiss one or two weak prints as aberrations. However, 3 continuous months of weak data deserves more attention. Firstly, mortgage rates have continued to remain elevated and rate cuts have not materialized as the market expected at the start of the year. Inflation reared its ugly head again in 1H 2024. Finally, there are signs of an inventory pile up in the new homes market. On the back of these developments, we are starting to see a slowdown in the US real estate construction industry. Building Permits in May were at a SA annual rate of 1.386mn. That was 3.8% below the revised April level of 1.44mn. Building Permits for Single Family units, which have mostly been on a rise in recent months, were 2.9% down from the last month (at an annualized rate of 949K units). Similar to the Building Permits data, Housing Starts fell 5.5% in the month May to an annualized level of 1.277mn units. Single Family Housing Starts were also 5% below last month’s level. The overall weakness in the economy and weakening consumer sentiment is also reflecting in the Home Builders Confidence Index which has fallen for 3 months in a row and is at its lowest for the year. However, even though building permits and housing starts have fallen in the past 3 months, they have remained fairly resilient in the past couple of years. While they have come down from the highs of 2021, they still remain fairly elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. The trend of structural shortage of homes in the US  witnessed over the past decade continues even now.   

• Building permits decreased 3.8% in May to a SA annual rate of 1.386mn units.
• Housing starts decreased 5.5% in May to a SA annual rate of 1.277mn units

16th May 2024

Key takeaway: US housing construction data came in weaker for the 2nd month in a row. Building Permits in April were at a SA annual rate of 1.440mn. That was 3.0% below the revised March level of 1.485mn. Building Permits for Single Family units, which have mostly been on a rise in recent months, were 0.8% down from the last month (at an annualized rate of 976K units). While Housing Starts data posted an increase over the previous month, it was lesser than consensus expectations. Housing Starts in April were at a SA annualized rate of 1.360mn – 5.7% above the revised March level of 1.287mn units. Once again, similar to the Building Permits data, Single Family Housing starts have been on a recent uptrend. Single Family Housing Starts in April were at 1,031K units which was 0.4% below last month’s level. While April housing construction data came in softer than expected, it is key to note that this is only the 2nd month of weaker data in an otherwise trend of strong construction numbers. Home Builders Index has also posted a decline in May as higher mortgage rates continue to weigh on home buyer sentiment. In summary, building permits and housing starts have remained fairly resilient in the past couple of years. While they have come down from the highs of 2021, they still remain fairly elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. However, another viewpoint necessitates taking into account the large population increase in the US over the past 3 years. Hence, the trend of structural shortage of homes in the US  witnessed over the past decade continues even now. The last point to note is that multi family construction has significantly declined in the last 9-12 months compared to the resurgence seen in single family home construction.  

• Building permits decreased 3.0% in Apr to a SA annual rate of 1.440mn units.
• Housing starts increased 5.7% in Apr to a SA annual rate of 1.360mn units

16th Apr 2024

Key takeaway: In the first real piece of bad economic news in quite a few months, US Home construction data showed a large drop from the previous month. Building Permits in March were at a SA annual rate of 1.458mn. That was 4.3% below the revised February level of 1.458mn. Building Permits for Single Family units, which have mostly been on a rise in recent months, were 5.7% down from the last month (at an annualized rate of 973K units). Similarly Housing Starts data posted a large drop as well. Housing Starts in March were at a SA annualized rate of 1.321mn – 14.7% below the February level of 1.549mn units. Once again, similar to the Building Permits data, Single Family Housing starts are have been on a recent uptrend. Single Family Housing Starts is at 1,022K units which is 12.4% below last month’s level. However it is still key to remember that this is just one month of weak data and Building Permits and Housing Starts are generally significantly above last year’s lows. The US Housing market data continues to be quite robust. Home builder sentiment is on the rise as well. Even though housing starts and building permits have increased significantly in recent months, they remain well below previous cycle peaks (for instance 2005). The shortage of existing home sales continues to drive buyers towards new homes – despite the rise in mortgage rates compared to 2021 lows. Home builders continue to invest in building new homes in the expectation that demand will continue to remain resilient. 

• Building permits decreased 4.3% in Mar to a SA annual rate of 1.458mn units.
• Housing starts decreased 14.7% in Mar to a SA annual rate of 1.321mn units

19th Mar 2024

Key takeaway: US Home construction data showed a nice rebound from the slightly weak data seen the previous month. Building Permits in February were at a SA annual rate of 1.518mn. That was 1.9% above the revised January level of 1.489mn. Single Family Housing units continue to rise as has been the trend in recent months. Building Permits for Single Family Housing Construction were at a SA annualized level of 1,031K units. Building Permits are now significantly above the Dec 2022 low of 750K units and also above pre-pandemic levels. Similarly Housing Starts data posted an increase as well. Housing Starts in February were at a SA annualized rate of 1.521mn – 10.7% above the January level of 1.374mn units. Once again, similar to the Building Permits data, Single Family Housing starts are also continuing their recent uptrend. Single Family Housing Starts at 1,129K units are significantly above last year’s low of 800K and also above pre-pandemic averages. The US Housing market data continues to be quite robust. Home builder sentiment is on the rise as well. Even though housing starts and building permits have increased significantly in recent months, they remain well below previous cycle peaks (for instance 2005). The shortage of existing home sales continues to drive buyers towards new homes – despite the rise in mortgage rates compared to 2021 lows. Home builders continue to invest in building new homes in the expectation that demand will continue to remain resilient. 

• Building permits increased 1.9% in Feb to a SA annual rate of 1.518mn units.
• Housing starts increased 10.7% in Feb to a SA annual rate of 1.521mn units

16th Feb 2024

Key takeaway: Mortgage rates have come down steeply since mid 2023 highs. Home Builder confidence is on the rise again after cratering last year when rates spiked in the second half. This shows in the new residential construction data from the US Census Bureau as well. New US Home Construction continues to be fairly resilient. Building Permits in January were at a SA annual rate of 1.470mn. That was 1.5% below the revised December level of 1.493mn. Once again the notable point remains that Single Family Housing units continue to rise as has been the trend in recent months. Building Permits for Single Family Housing Construction were at a SA annualized level of 1,015K units. The December number was also revised slightly upwards. This January level is significantly above the Dec 2022 low of 750K units and also above pre-pandemic averages. Housing Starts in January were at a SA annualized rate of 1.33mn – 14.8% below the December level of 1.562mn units. Once again, similar to the Building Permits data, Single Family Housing starts are also continuing their recent uptrend. Single Family Housing Starts at 1,004K units are significantly above last year’s low of 800K and also above pre-pandemic averages. The shortage of existing home sales continues to drive buyers towards new homes – despite the rise in mortgage rates compared to 2021 lows. Home builders continue to invest in building new homes in the expectation that demand will continue to remain resilient. 

• Building permits decreased 1.5% in Jan to a SA annual rate of 1.470mn units.
• Housing starts decreased 14.8% in Jan to a SA annual rate of 1.33mn units

18th Jan 2024

Key takeaway: Mortgage rates have come down steeply. Home Builder confidence is on the rise again. That shows in the new residential construction data from the US Census Bureau. New US Home Construction continues to be fairly resilient. Building Permits in December were at a SA annual rate of 1.495mn. That was 1.9% above the marginally revised November level of 1.467mn. Once again the notable point remains that Single Family Housing units continue to rise as has been the trend in recent months. Building Permits for Single Family Housing Construction were at a SA annualized level of 994K units. This is significantly above the Dec 2022 low of 750K units and also above pre-pandemic averages. Housing Starts in December were at a SA annualized rate of 1.46mn – 4.3% below the November level of 1.525mn units. Once again, similar to the Building Permits data, Single Family Housing starts are also continuing their recent uptrend. Single Family Housing Starts at 1,027K units are significantly above last year’s low of 800K and also above pre-pandemic averages. The shortage of existing home sales continues to drive buyers towards new homes – despite the rise in mortgage rates compared to 2021 lows. Home builders, even though recent surveys pointed to low confidence levels, continue to invest in building new homes in the expectation that demand will continue to remain resilient. 

• Building permits increased 1.9% in Dec to a SA annual rate of 1.495mn units.
• Housing starts decreased 4.3% in Dec to a SA annual rate of 1.46mn units

19th Dec 2023

Key takeaway: New US Home Construction continues to be fairly resilient. Building Permits in November were at a SA annual rate of 1.46mn. That was 2.5% below the revised October level of 1.498mn. Once again the notable point remains that Single Family Housing units continue to rise as has been the trend in recent months. Building Permits for Single Family Housing Construction were at a SA annualized level of 976K units. This is significantly above the Dec 2022 low of 750K units and also above pre-pandemic averages. Housing Starts in November were at a SA annualized rate of 1.56mn – a massive 15% above the October level of 1.359mn units. Once again, similar to the Building Permits data, Single Family Housing starts are also continuing their recent uptrend. Single Family Housing Starts at 1,143K units are significantly above last year’s low of 800K and also above pre-pandemic averages. The shortage of existing home sales continues to drive buyers towards new homes – despite the rise in mortgage rates. Home builders, even though recent surveys pointed to low confidence levels, continue to invest in building new homes in the expectation that demand will continue to remain resilient. 

• Building permits decreased 2.5% in Nov to a SA annual rate of 1.46mn units.
• Housing starts increased 14.8% in Nov to a SA annual rate of 1.56mn units

17th Nov 2023

Key takeaway: New US Home Construction continues to be fairly resilient. Building Permits in October were at a SA annual rate of 1.487mn. That was 1.1% above the September level of 1.471. The notable point was that Single Family Housing units continue to rise as has been the trend in recent months. Building Permits for Single Family Housing Construction were at a SA annualized level of 968K units. This is significantly above the Dec 2022 low of 750K units and also above pre-pandemic averages. Similarly, Housing Starts in October were at a SA annualized rate of 1.37mn – 1.9% above the September level of 1.346mn units. Once again, similar to the Building Permits data, Single Family Housing starts are also continuing their recent uptrend. Single Family Housing Starts at 970K are significantly above last year’s low of 800K and also above pre-pandemic averages. The shortage of existing home sales continues to drive buyers towards new homes – despite the rise in mortgage rates. Home builders, even though recent surveys pointed to low confidence levels, continue to invest in building new homes in the expectation that demand will continue to remain resilient. 

• Building permits increased 1.1% in Oct to a SA annual rate of 1.487mn units.
• Housing starts increased 1.9% in Oct to a SA annual rate of 1.372mn units

18th Oct 2023

Key takeaway: The Housing Starts and Building Permits data release for September 2023 was a mixed bag, similar to August. Housing Starts recovered from the sharp fall registered in August. Housing Starts rose 7.0% from a revised 1.269mn in August to 1.358mn in September. Single family housing starts at 963K were substantially below 2021 highs but still similar to pre-pandemic levels. On the other hand, multi family housing starts registered a sharp increase in September from 327K to 383K. However, not only is this level substantially below 2021 levels it is also below pre-pandemic levels. Building Permits, similar to Housing Starts, recorded reverse movements compared to the previous month. Building Permits fell from a SA annual rate of 1.54mn units in August to 1.47mn units in September. The key point to note here is that Building Permits for single family units have increased in every single month in 2023. Building Permits for multi family units have slowed since the highs of 2022.  

• Building permits decreased 4.4% in Sep to a SA annual rate of 1.473mn units.
• Housing starts increased 7.0% in Sep to a SA annual rate of 1.358mn units

19th Sep 2023

Key takeaway: The Housing Starts and Building Permits data release for August 2023 was a mixed bag. Housing Starts fell sharply (11.3%) from 1.45mn in July to 1.28mn in August. Building Permits, on the other hand, recorded an increase from 1.44mn in July to 1.54mn in August. However, the sharp fall in Housing Starts was key to note, since it comes on the back of a sharp fall in the Home Builders sentiment index recorded just a few days back. Conversely, the consolation prize in the data point was that the fall was mostly attributable to the multi family housing sector. Single family housing, which is the mainstay of the US residential real estate market, still remained fairly strong, dropping 4.3% to a SA annual rate of 941K units.  

• Building permits increased 6.9% in Aug to a SA annual rate of 1.543mn units.
• Housing starts decreased 11.3% in Aug to a SA annual rate of 1.283mn units

16th Aug 2023

Key takeaway: Housing Starts in July were at SA annual rate of 1.452mn units. This was 3.9% above the revised June estimate of 1.398mn units. However, its is also key to note that last month’s Housing Starts number had been revised down from 1.434mn units to 1.398mn units. Single Family Housing Starts increased 6.7% from the previous month and Multi Family Housing Starts were mostly flat. Building Permits in July were mostly flat compared to last month’s level. However, this does not takeaway from the fact that Housing Construction has experienced a significant resurgence throughout the first half of 2023. The Home Builders confidence index has also reflected a robust underlying new homes market (even though the latest reading in June showed a drop in the confidence index). Another noteworthy point (similar to recent few months), was the fact that activity in Single Family units segment seems to be performing even better.  

• Building permits increased 0.1% in Jul to a SA annual rate of 1.442mn units.
• Housing starts increased 3.9% in Jul to a SA annual rate of 1.452mn units

19th Jul 2023

Key takeaway: Housing Starts in June were at SA annual rate of 1.434mn units. This was 8% below the revised May estimate of 1.559mn units. However, Housing Starts had jumped 15% m-o-m in June. Hence some moderation in June was quite logical. Similarly, Building Permits in June were 3.7% below last month’s level. However, this does not takeaway from the fact that Housing Construction has experienced a significant resurgence throughout the first half of 2023. The Home Builders confidence index also reflects a robust underlying new homes market. Another noteworthy point (similar to last month), was the fact that activity in Single Family units segment seems to be performing even better. While overall Building Permits fell 3.7% in June, Building Permits for Single Family units actually grew 2%.  

• Building permits decreased 3.7% in Jun to a SA annual rate of 1.440mn units.
• Housing starts decreased 8.0% in Jun to a SA annual rate of 1.434mn units

20th Jun 2023

Key takeaway: After a couple of muted months in March and April, May was back to the start of the year trend of red hot activity prints in the US Residential market. Firstly, Housing Starts jumped an astounding 21% m-o-m in May to a SA annual rate of 1.63mn units. Even after factoring in the fact that April was revised down from +2.2% to minus 2.9%, the 21% jump is still noteworthy. Building Permits increased a substantial 5% as well. However, most noteworthy, was the fact that the large jump was attributable to the Single Family market. Over the past 6 months to a year, it has been the multi family units sector which had been most robust amid a slightly muted single family sector. However in May, Single family Housing Starts increased 18% m-o-m to a SA annual rate of 997K units.  

• Building permits increased 5.2% in May to a SA annual rate of 1.491mn units.
• Housing starts increased 21% in May to a SA annual rate of 1.63mn units

17th May 2023

Key takeaway: After red hot prints in Jan and Feb for new home building in the US, March and April caught a bit of a breather. Building permits in April were at a SA annual rate of 1.416mn units – 1.5% below the revised March rate of 1.437mn units. The general trend in the US Housing construction space had been a decline in single family units and in contrast, a resiliency in multi family units. For a second month in a row, however, Building Permits for multi family units (5 units or more) fell month over month (minus 9.7% in April). On the other hand, Housing Starts overall increased 2.2% month over month in April to 1.401mn units. However, March was revised much lower from its preliminary reading of 1.42mn units to 1.371mn units.   

• Building permits decreased 1.5% in Apr to a SA annual rate of 1.416mn units.
• Housing starts increased 2.2% in Apr to a SA annual rate of 1.401mn units

18th Apr 2023

Key takeaway: Both building permits and housing starts caught a breather in March after a couple of months of upside surprises. Building permits in March were at a SA annual rate of 1.41mn units – 8.8% below the revised Feb rate of 1.55mn. Similarly, housing starts also cooled to 1.42mn units in Mar – 0.8% below the revised Feb rate of 1.43mn units. The lower building permits were primarily on account of multi family residential units which fell 24% compared to the previous month. Similarly housing starts were also lower mostly on account of multi-family which fell 6.7% compared to the previous month of February. The multi-family segment within the US residential real estate sector was really the one that had held up thus far much better than single family homes. It will be interesting to watch both these sectors going forward for indications on the US real estate market. 

• Building permits decreased 8.8% in Mar to a SA annual rate of 1.41mn units.
• Housing starts decreased 0.8% in Mar to a SA annual rate of 1.43mn units

16th Mar 2023

Key takeaway: In yet another sign of a stabilizing US residential market, housing starts and building permits were both substantially up in February. Building permits increased a substantial 15% in Feb to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.55mn. Similarly, Housing starts were up 9.8% in Feb to a SA annual rate of 1.45mn. Both indicators came in better than expected. 

• Building permits increased 15% in Feb to a SA annual rate of 1.55mn units.
• Housing starts increased 9.8% in Feb to a SA annual rate of 1.45mn units