US Macro Updates

The One Stop Portal for US Macroeconomic Data. Simplified and Summarized! 

We simplify and summarize key data so that you don’t have to spend hours reading confusing and long media releases. Read key economic releases and major events here in under 2 minutes. And we will explain the key takeaway for you. Stay informed and form a robust view on macroeconomic matters to aid your successful investment decisions

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

17th Jul 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: Industrial production measures the real output of manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities, making it one of the broadest gauges of physical economic activity in the United States. As a coincident indicator, it tends to move in tandem with the broader business cycle, rising during expansions and contracting during downturns, which gives it particular weight among economists and analysts tracking real-time economic conditions. Over the past one to two years, industrial production has navigated a challenging environment marked by shifting interest rates, uneven global demand, and ongoing supply chain normalization, resulting in a trajectory that has been largely modest and range-bound rather than exhibiting strong directional momentum. The June 2026 reading of 102.64 represents a marginal gain of 0.08% from the prior month, signaling that the industrial sector continues to expand but at a very subdued pace. Such a tepid advance suggests that manufacturers and other industrial producers are not yet experiencing the kind of demand surge that would drive more robust output growth. For GDP, this reading makes a limited positive contribution from the goods-producing side of the economy, and it offers little signal of accelerating business investment in productive capacity. Supply chains appear stable enough to sustain current output levels, but the absence of stronger growth momentum may give businesses reason to remain cautious about major capital expenditure commitments in the near term.

Industrial Production Index increased 0.08% in Jun to 102.64.

15th Jun 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: Industrial production measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities sectors, making it one of the broadest gauges of the physical economy beyond services. As a coincident indicator, it tends to move in close alignment with the broader business cycle, rising during expansions and contracting during downturns, which gives it significant weight among economists and investors tracking real-time economic conditions. Over the past 12 to 24 months, industrial production has navigated a choppy environment shaped by shifting interest rates, inventory corrections, and uneven global demand, with the index oscillating in a narrow range rather than establishing a clear directional trend. The modest 0.14% gain recorded in May, bringing the index to 102.65, suggests the industrial sector continues to expand at a subdued but positive pace, avoiding the kind of outright contraction that would raise recession concerns. For GDP, such incremental growth in industrial output provides a constructive contribution to the goods-producing component, though the magnitude is too small to materially alter the broader growth picture on its own. From a supply chain perspective, steady production levels imply that capacity is being utilized without the kind of stress that historically leads to bottlenecks or inflationary pressure in intermediate goods markets. Business investment decisions are likely to remain measured in this environment, with firms cautious about committing to significant capacity expansion until demand signals become more consistently robust.

Industrial Production Index increased 0.14% in May to 102.65.

15th May 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: Industrial production measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities sectors, making it one of the broadest gauges of physical economic activity in the United States. As a coincident indicator, it tends to move in lockstep with the broader business cycle, rising during expansions and contracting during downturns, which gives it significant weight in recession dating by the NBER. Over the past 12 to 24 months, industrial production has navigated a choppy recovery path, contending with persistent input cost pressures, uneven global demand, and ongoing recalibration of supply chains following the disruptions of earlier years. The April 2026 reading of 102.5, reflecting a monthly gain of 0.68 percent, signals that the industrial sector is maintaining positive momentum heading into the second quarter. This kind of steady output growth tends to feed constructively into GDP calculations, particularly through the goods-producing components of national accounts. For supply chains, a strengthening production index suggests improving throughput and reduced bottleneck risk, which can ease delivery timelines and moderate input costs for downstream businesses. Business investment decisions are also likely to be influenced favorably, as firms operating closer to capacity may look to expand plant and equipment spending to sustain output levels.

Industrial Production Index increased 0.68% in Apr to 102.5.

Industrial Production Index – April 2026: +0.68% (102.50)

16th Apr 2026 NEW

Key takeaway: Industrial production measures the real output of manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities, making it one of the broadest gauges of physical economic activity in the United States. Because it tends to move closely in line with the overall business cycle, it is widely classified as a coincident economic indicator, meaning it confirms the current state of the economy rather than predicting future conditions. Over the past one to two years, industrial production has navigated a choppy path, facing headwinds from elevated borrowing costs, softening global demand, and ongoing inventory corrections across key manufacturing sectors. The 0.54% month-over-month decline recorded in March 2026, bringing the index to 101.79, suggests that industrial activity lost momentum heading into the second quarter. A contraction of this magnitude, if sustained, would weigh on near-term GDP estimates, particularly within the goods-producing components of output. Supply chains, which had largely stabilized following the disruptions of earlier years, may face renewed pressure if output softness signals weakening orders and reduced throughput across logistics networks. Business investment decisions, especially in equipment and structures tied to industrial capacity, are likely to come under greater scrutiny should this downward trend persist in the months ahead.

Industrial Production Index decreased 0.54% in Mar to 101.79.

Industrial Production Index – March 2026: -0.54% (101.79)

16th Mar 2026

Key takeaway: Data released by the Federal Reserve Board showed that industrial production increased by 0.2% in February, following a 0.7% increase in January. Within the report, manufacturing output increased by 0.2%, while mining production rose by 0.8% and utilities output declined by 0.6% during the month. On a year-over-year basis, total industrial production was 1.4% higher than in February of last year. Meanwhile, capacity utilization remained unchanged at 76.3%, a rate that is around 3.1 percentage points below its long-run average. Taken together, the latest report suggests that industrial activity continued to expand modestly in February, although overall utilization rates remain somewhat below historical norms, indicating that spare capacity in the industrial sector persists.  

18th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: The latest release shows Industrial production in the US increased 0.7% in January. Industrial production for the 4th quarter grew 0.7% on an annual basis. While that is lower than the 1.1% seen in Q3, it is a healthy rate nonetheless and the Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast also shows the US economy growing at a healthy pace in Q4 2025. Manufacturing, as a sector, continues to be weak though as evidenced by ISM numbers as well. However, manufacturing production started 2026 on a high note. The Index for manufacturing was 0.6% higher in January. The Index for Mining was lower by 0.2% in January and the Index for Utilities increased 2.1% in Janaury. Capacity utilization was 76.2% in January. The capacity utilization number is still 3.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

18th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: The latest release shows Industrial production in the US decreased 0.4% in December. Industrial production for the 4th quarter grew 0.7% on an annual basis. While that is lower than the 1.1% seen in Q3, it is a healthy rate nonetheless and the Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast also shows the US economy growing at a healthy pace in Q4 2025. Manufacturing, as a sector, continues to be weak though as evidenced by ISM numbers as well. The Index for manufacturing was 0.2% higher in December. The Index for Mining was lower by 0.7% in December and the Index for Utilities decreased 2.7% in December. Capacity utilization was 76.3% in December. The capacity utilization number is still 3.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

23rd Dec 2025

Key takeaway: (Delayed data due to govt shutdown) – The latest release on 23rd December provides an update of industrial production for the months of October and November. Industrial production in the US decreased 0.1% in October and increased 0.2% in November. Industrial production for the 3rd quarter as a whole grew 1.1% on an annual basis. At 1.1%, industrial production is lower than pre-pandemic figures, but still a fairly healthy rate. In contrast, initial figures for October and November point to muted industrial production. Manufacturing, as a sector, continues to be weak though as evidenced by ISM numbers as well. The Index for manufacturing was 0.4% lower in October and flat in November. The Index for Mining was lower by 0.8% in October and up 1.7% in November. The Index for Utilities increased 2.6% in October and declined 0.4% in NOvember. Capacity utilization was 76.0% in November. The capacity utilization number is still 3.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

3rd Dec 2025

Key takeaway: (Delayed data due to govt shutdown) – Industrial production in the US increased 0.1% in September against consensus expectations of a similar number. The delayed nature of this data point make is a bit irrelevant, though it is key to note that industrial production for the 3rd quarter as a whole grew 1.1% on an annual basis. At 1.1%, industrial production is lower than pre-pandemic figures, but still a fairly healthy rate. Manufacturing, as a sector, continues to be weak though as evidenced by ISM numbers as well. The Index for manufacturing was flat from the previous month of August, mostly on the back of lower auto production. The Index for Mining was also unchanged and that for Utilities increased 1.1%. Capacity utilization remained at 75.9 in September. The capacity utilization number is still 3.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

16th Sep 2025

Key takeaway: Industrial production in the US increased 0.1% in August against consensus expectations of a decrease of 0.1% from the previous month. The Index for Mining increased 0.9% and that for Utilities decreased 2.0%. The Index for Manufacturing increased 0.2% from the previous month. Overall the print was fairly tepid increasing worries that companies are hamstrung by tariff uncertainty and weakening demand. Industrial Production data in the US had generally been weak in 2024. However, industrial production has been fairly decent in 1Q 2025, which was been followed up by weak prints in the second quarter and now continuing into the third quarter with the latest prints of July and August. Some of the strength in the first quarter is believed to have been on account of front running of tariffs. Overall, the soft industrial production and manufacturing production prints are also in line with ISM manufacturing survey results in most months of 2025. Capacity utilization remained at 77.4 in August. The capacity utilization number is still 2.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

15th Aug 2025

Key takeaway: Industrial production in the US declined 0.1% in July against consensus expectations of an unchanged number from the previous month. The Index for Mining decreased 0.4% and that for Utilities decreased 0.2%. The Index for Manufacturing was unchanged from the previous month. Overall the print was fairly tepid increasing worries that companies are hamstrung by tariff uncertainty and weakening demand. Industrial Production data in the US had generally been weak in 2024. However, industrial production has been fairly decent in 1Q 2025, which was been followed up by weak prints in the second quarter and now continuing into the third quarter with the month of July. Some of the strength in the first quarter is believed to have been on account of front running of tariffs. Capacity utilization decreased from 77.7 in June to 77.5 in July. The capacity utilization number is still 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

16th Jul 2025

Key takeaway: Industrial production in the US increased 0.3% in June against consensus expectations of an increase of 0.1%. The Index for Mining decreased 0.3% but that for Utilities increased sharply by 2.8%, driving the overall index higher. Index for Manufacturing increased 0.1%. Excluding autos, the index for manufacturing increased 0.3% reflecting a broad increase across categories, unlike last month which was primarily driven by increased auto production. Industrial Production data in the US had generally been weak in 2024. However, industrial production has been fairly decent in 1Q 2025, which was been followed up by weak prints in April and May. Overall manufacturing has remained relatively weak in June as well. Some of the strength in the first quarter might once again have been on account of front running of tariffs. Capacity utilization increased from 77.5 in May to 776 in June. The capacity utilization number is still 2.0 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

17th Jun 2025

Key takeaway: Industrial production in the US fell 0.2% in May against consensus expectations of a 0% change. The Index for Mining increased 0.1% and that for Utilities decreased 2.9%. Index for Manufacturing increased 0.1% led by a large increase in the production of motor vehicles and parts. Excluding that segment, the index for manufacturing decreased 0.3%. Industrial Production data in the US had generally been weak in 2024. However, industrial production has been fairly decent in 1Q 2025, which has been followed up by weak prints in April and May. Some of the strength in the first quarter might once again have been on account of front running of tariffs. Capacity utilization decreased from 77.7 in April to 77.4 in May. The capacity utilization number is still 2.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

15th May 2025

Key takeaway: Industrial production in the US was unchanged in April after having declined 0.3% in March and having expanded for 2 consecutive months at the start of the new year. The headline index was unchanged against consensus expectations of an increase of 0.2%. The Index for Mining declined 0.3%, for Utilities increased 3.3% and the Index for Manufacturing decreased 0.4%. Industrial Production data in the US had generally been weak in 2024. However, industrial production has been fairly decent in 1Q 2025, which has been followed up by a weak print in April. Some of this strength might once again be on account of front running of tariffs. Capacity utilization decreased from 77.8 in March to 77.7 in April. The capacity utilization number is still 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

16th Apr 2025

Key takeaway: Industrial production in the US decreased in March after 2 consecutive months of expansion at the start of the new year. The headline index decreased 0.3% in March against consensus expectations for a decrease of 0.2%. The Index for Mining rose 0.6%, for Utilities fell 5.8% and the Index for Manufacturing increased 0.3%. The increase in the manufacturing index of 0.3% follows the previous month’s increase of 1.0%, that was mostly on account of an increase in automotive assembly.  Industrial Production data in the US had generally been weak in 2024. However, industrial production has been fairly decent in 1Q 2025. Some of this strength might once again be on account of front running of tariffs. Capacity utilization decreased from 78.2 in February to 77.8 in March. The capacity utilization number is still 1.8 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

18th Mar 2025

Key takeaway: Industrial production in the US increased in February, marking 2 consecutive months of expansion at the start of the new year. The headline index increased 0.7% in February against consensus expectations for a rise of 0.2%. However the previous month’s data was revised down from 0.5% to  0.3%. The Index for Mining rose 2.8%, for Utilities fell 2.5% and the Index for Manufacturing increased 0.9%. Industrial Production data in the US has generally been weak for a year or so. The weakness in the US manufacturing sector has also been strongly reflected in both the S&P and ISM PMI Surveys. However, some of the recent months surveys have started to show a turnaround in manufacturing output and new orders. Market participants believe the surge in manufacturing production is mostly due to front loading of tariffs. It will be key to watch if manufacturing production sustains a continuous rise in 2025. Capacity utilization increased from 77.7 in January to 78.2 in February. The capacity utilization number is still 1.4 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

14th Feb 2025

Key takeaway: Industrial production in the US increased in January at the start of the new year. The headline index increased 0.5% in January against consensus expectations for a rise of 0.3%. Previous’ month’s data was also revised upwards from 0.9% to  1.0%. The bulk of the increase was due to a 7.2% increase in the Index for Utilities. The Index for Mining fell 1.2% and the Index for Manufacturing fell 0.1%. Industrial Production data in the US has generally been weak for a year or so. The weakness in the US manufacturing sector has also been strongly reflected in both the S&P and ISM PMI Surveys. However, some of the recent months surveys have started to show a turnaround in manufacturing output and new orders. It will be key to watch if manufacturing production sustains a continuous rise in 2025. Capacity utilization increased from 77.5 in December to 77.8 in January. The capacity utilization number is still 1.8 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

17th Jan 2025

Key takeaway: Industrial production in the US increased sharply in December. The headline index increased 0.9% in December against consensus expectations for a rise of 0.3%. Previous’ month’s data was also revised upwards from minus 0.1% to  +0.2%. A large part of the headline increase was attributable to sharp rise in both mining and utilities. However, the more important manufacturing index also posted a strong 0.6% growth. Industrial Production data in the US has generally been weak for a year or so. Hence, a strong report always merits attention. However, the Fed also noted recent gains in the output of aircraft and parts which contributed 0.2% to December’s growth numbers. It will be key to watch if manufacturing production sustains a continuous rise in 2025. Capacity utilization increased from 77.0 in November to 77.6 in December. The capacity utilization number is still 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

17th Dec 2024

Key takeaway: Industrial production in the US decreased modestly in November. Previous’ month’s data was also revised downwards from minus 0.3% to minus 0.4% as well. The latest month’s decline was mostly attributable to weaker utility and mining output. Manufacturing output, on the other hand rose 0.2%. However, Industrial Production data in the US has generally been weak for a year or so. May and June had posted decent Industrial Production data prints. July was down, August was up again and now September, October and November have been down again. Capacity utilization decreased from 77.0 in October to 76.8 in November. The capacity utilization number is still 2.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

15th Nov 2024

Key takeaway: Industrial production in the US decreased modestly in October. Previous’ month’s data was revised downwards from minus 0.3% to minus 0.5% as well. The latest soft Industrial Production numbers were mostly attributable to the impact of the hurricanes and a machinist strike at Boeing. However, Industrial Production data in the US has generally been weak for a year or so. May and June had posted decent Industrial Production data prints. July was down, August was up again and now September and October have been down again. Among major industry groups, the Index for Manufacturing posted a decrease of 0.3% over the previous month. The output for mining increased 0.3% and the output for utilities increased 0.7%. Capacity utilization decreased from 77.4 in September to 77.1 in October. The capacity utilization number is still 2.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

17th Sep 2024

Key takeaway: Industrial production in the US increased sharply in August after having fallen the previous month in July. Industrial Production data in the US has generally been weak for a year or so. May and June had posted decent Industrial Production data prints. July was down and August has been up again. Among major industry groups, the Index for Manufacturing posted an increase of 0.9% over the previous month. The output for mining increased 0.8% and the output for utilities was unchanged. Capacity utilization increased from 77.8 in July to 78.0 in August. The capacity utilization number is still 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

15th Aug 2024

Key takeaway: Industrial production in the US declined in July after posting 2 consecutive months of positive prints. Industrial Production data in the US has generally been weak for a year or so. Hence, 2 continuous months of decent Industrial Production data was noteworthy. Industrial Production for the month of July decreased 0.6% against consensus expectations for a 0.3% decrease. Among major industry groups, the Index for Manufacturing posted a decline of 0.3% over the previous month. The output for mining was unchanged and utilities decreased 3.7%. Capacity utilization decreased from 78.4 in June to 77.8 in July. The capacity utilization number is still 1.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

17th Jul 2024

Key takeaway: Industrial production in the US posted a strong beat for the 2nd month in a row in June. Industrial Production data in the US has generally been weak for a year or so. Hence, 2 continuous months of decent Industrial Production data is noteworthy. Industrial Production for the month of June increased 0.6% against consensus expectations for a 0.3% increase. Among major industry groups, the Index for Manufacturing posted a strong beat increasing 0.4% over the previous month. The output for mining increased 0.3% and utilities increased 2.8%. Capacity utilization increased from 78.3 to 78.8 in June. The capacity utilization number is still 0.4 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

18th Jun 2024

Key takeaway: Industrial production in the US posted a strong beat in May after almost a year of soft or outright negative prints. The data point was also against the recent trend of weak economic data and hence caught most market participants by surprise. Industrial Production for the month of May increased 0.9% against consensus expectations for a 0.3% increase. There wasn’t much of a revision to the previous months data either. Among major industry groups, the Index for Manufacturing posted a strong beat increasing 0.9% over the previous month. The output for mining increased 0.3% and utilities increased 1.6%. Capacity utilization decreased slightly from 78.2 to 78.7 in May. The capacity utilization number is still 0.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

16th May 2024

Key takeaway: Industrial production in the US was little changed in April. The Industrial Production Index for the month of March was also revised down from 0.4% to 0.1%. Among major industry groups, the Index for Manufacturing decreased 0.3% in April. However that decrease came on the back of 2 positive months of increases of 1.4% and 0.2% in February and March. PMIs of late have indicated a bottoming out in Manufacturing. The output for mining fell 0.6%. The Index for utilities increased 2.8% in April. Capacity utilization decreased slightly from 78.5 to 78.4 in April. The capacity utilization number is still 1.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

16th Apr 2024

Key takeaway: Industrial production in the US increased by 0.4% in March. The Industrial Production Index for the month of February was revised up from 0.1% to 0.4%. Among major industry groups, the Index for Manufacturing increased 0.5% in March. In general, we have been witnessing a bottoming out in US manufacturing over the past few months. Manufacturing PMIs have also indicated a slight upturn. The manufacturing output data from this Fed release also validates this point. The same index was also revised higher for February from 0.8% to 1.2%. The output for mining fell 1.4%. However, that was on the back of a 3.0% increase in mining in the month of February. The Index for utilities increased 2.0% in March. Capacity utilization increased slightly from 78.2 to 78.4 in March. The capacity utilization number is still 1.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

15th Mar 2024

Key takeaway: Industrial production in the US increased slightly by 0.1% in February. More importantly, the Industrial Production Index numbers for the two previous months of January and December were both revised downwards. Among major industry groups, the Index for Manufacturing increased 0.8% in February. However, the same index was also revised lower for January from minus 0.5% to -1.1%. The output for mining rose 2.2%. Both increases in the month of February were partially attributable to recoveries from the weather related declines in January. The Index for utilities fell 7.5% in February because of warmer-then-typical temperatures. Capacity utilization was unchanged at 78.3 in February but January was revised down from 78.5 to 78.3. The capacity utilization number is still 1.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.  

15th Feb 2024

Key takeaway: Industrial production decreased 0.1% in January. The previous estimate for December was also revised lower from +0.1% to 0.0%. Overall, the manufacturing sector continues to remain soft. After a strong July print, Industrial Production has been soft through the rest of 2023 and January 2024 was no exception. Consumer Goods production index increased a relatively healthy 0.6% and Business equipment production index declined 0.2%. Capacity utilization declined slightly from 78.7% in December to 78.5% in January, still 1.6 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2022) average.  

17th Jan 2024

Key takeaway: Industrial production increased a marginal 0.1% in December. The previous estimate for November, on the other hand, was revised lower from +0.2% to 0.0%. Overall, the manufacturing sector continues to remain soft. After a strong July print, Industrial Production has been soft through the rest of 2023. Consumer Goods production index increased a marginal 0.2% and Business equipment production index declined 0.2% after having risen 1.0% in the prior month. Capacity utilization remained flat at 78.6 percent compared to the downwardly revised November number, still 1.1 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2022) average.  

15th Dec 2023

Key takeaway: Industrial production increased a modest 0.2% in November. The previous estimate for October was also revised lower from -0.6% to -0.9%. Overall, the manufacturing sector continues to remain soft. After a strong July print, August, September and October had recorded soft or negative manufacturing numbers. Consumer Goods production index increased a marginal 0.1% and Business equipment production index increased 0.9%. Capacity utilization improved marginally to 78.8 percent in November, still 0.9 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2022) average.  

16th Nov 2023

Key takeaway: Industrial production declined a substantial 0.6% in October. The previous estimate for September was also revised lower from 0.3% to 0.1%. However, even though the print was low, much of the drop was attributable to the recent strikes at the major motor vehicle manufacturers. In any case, overall, the manufacturing sector continues to remain soft. After a strong July print, both August and September had recorded soft manufacturing numbers and that trend continued in October as well. Consumer Goods production index decreased 1.2% and Business equipment production index declined 0.9%. Capacity utilization declined to 78.9 percent in October in line with its long-run (1972–2022) average.  

17th Oct 2023

Key takeaway: Industrial production increased 0.3% in September and advanced at an annual rate of 2.5% in the 3rd quarter of 2023. Overall, the manufacturing sector continues to remain soft. After a strong July print, both August and September have recorded soft manufacturing numbers. Consumer Goods production index increased 0.3% and Business equipment production index declined 0.7%. Capacity utilization moved up to 79.7 percent in September in line with its long-run (1972–2022) average. The overall picture remains one of resilience in the service sector and continuing activity in the construction sector which is countering a relative slowdown in manufacturing.  

15th Sep 2023

Key takeaway: The general picture in the US economy has been that of a slowdown in manufacturing but resilience in Services. However, last month’s release had shown Industrial Production increased a substantial 1.0% in July – which was welcome news for the manufacturing sector. However, after an exceptional July, Industrial Production once again printed a modest 0.4% in August. Similarly, the July print was revised down from 1.0% to 0.7%. Consumer Goods production index declined -0.2% and Business equipment production index increased 0.8%. Capacity utilization moved up to 79.7 percent in August in line with its long-run (1972–2022) average. The overall picture yet remains one of resilience in the service sector and continuing activity in the construction sector which is countering a relative slowdown in manufacturing.  

16th Aug 2023

Key takeaway: The general picture in the US economy has been that of a slowdown in manufacturing but resilience in Services. However, Industrial Production increased a substantial 1.0% in July – which was welcome news for the manufacturing sector. There was significant spike in Consumer Goods production (1.4%), led by automotive products. Business equipment production index also grew at a robust rate of 1.0%. However, while this is welcome news, it is also key to note that the Industrial Production reading for the previous month of June was revised down from 0.5% to 0.8%. Capacity utilization moved up to 79.3 percent in July, a rate that is 0.4 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2022) average. The overall picture yet remains one of resilience in the service sector and continuing activity in the construction sector which is countering a relative slowdown in manufacturing.  

19th Jul 2023

Key takeaway: Industrial Production declined for a second consecutive month in June by a sizeable 0.5%. Even the previous month of May was revised further down. While production in the Utilities segment has generally been falling in the recent months, industrial production numbers for Manufacturing and Mining also declined in June. While these numbers might not mean much standalone, when viewed together with historical averages, other PMI data and the Regional Fed manufacturing indexes, they do communicate a broader slowdown in manufacturing story. However, the key point to note has been the resilience of the service sector and the continuing activity in the construction sector which is countering a relative slowdown in manufacturing.  

15th Jun 2023

Key takeaway: Industrial Production edged down 0.2% in May. The last 4 months readings have now been 0.0%, 0.1%, 0.5% and minus 0.2%. Similarly the manufacturing index also rose a tepid 0.1% in May. While these numbers might not mean much standalone, when viewed together with historical averages, other PMI data and the Regional Fed manufacturing indexes, they do communicate a broader slowdown in manufacturing story. However, the key point to note has been the resilience of the service sector and the continuing activity in the construction sector which is countering a relative slowdown in manufacturing.  

16th May 2023

Key takeaway: Industrial Production rose 0.5% in April after 2 months of relatively low prints in Feb and Mar. Preliminary releases had shown Industrial Production to have climbed 0.4% in March. However, subsequent releases revised this number back down to 0%. Hence, the 0.5% rise in the headline Industrial Production Index should still be viewed as indicative of a slowing manufacturing sector in the US. The Manufacturing Index for March was also revised lower from -0.5% to -0.8%. In contrast, preliminary estimates for April showed manufacturing grew 1.0% m-o-m.  The softness in manufacturing and mining indexes as well as declining capacity utilisation provides continuing evidence of a broad slowdown in US manufacturing. Regional Fed manufacturing indexes have also been pointing to a weaker manufacturing sector, including the latest NY Fed manufacturing survey which showed a massive index fall from from 10.8 to minus 31.8 (the lowest since 2009 excluding peak covid).  

14th Apr 2023

Key takeaway: After a large contraction in December and a jump back in January, Industrial Production in the US has been relatively muted in both Feb and Mar. Industrial production rose 0.4% in March against consensus expectation of +0.2%. A large part of the index increase though was attributable to a jump in the index for utilities as the return to more seasonal cold weather in Mar increased the demand for heating. On the other hand manufacturing and mining recorded decreases of 0.5% m-o-m in Mar – a further indication of a slowdown in US manufacturing. Yet, it is key to remember that the Index levels are far from those seen in previous recessionary episodes. Similarly, though capacity utilization (79.8% in Mar) has fallen from 2022 highs, it is still significantly above lows seen in previous recession. 

US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization numbers are published by the NY Fed every month. Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines and utilities. The Capacity Utilization Rate is the percentage of production capacity being utilized in the US (available resources includes factories, mines and utilities). The Industrial sector together with construction accounts for the bulk of the variation in national output over the course of the business cycle. Both these indicators can be a concurrent or lagging indicator of the health of the US economy. But they can also be a leading indicators of CPI. The release is published around the middle of the month.

NY Fed Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization G17 Release