US Macro Updates

Key takeaway: The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for July 2026, released August 7, showed short-term inflation expectations easing while the longer-run picture stayed put. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell 0.1 point to 3.6%, down from June’s 3.7%. The three-year and five-year-ahead horizons were both unchanged at 3.3% and 3.0% respectively, suggesting the medium-term anchor is holding even as near-term readings drift. Median home price growth expectations held steady at 3.2%, still above their 12-month trailing average of 3.1%. Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations were also unchanged, at 2.8%, running above their 12-month trailing average of 2.6% — a modestly reassuring signal on the income side. Beneath those top-line figures, the labor market read turned more mixed: mean unemployment expectations jumped 1.1 points to 42.8%, a broad-based increase across age and income groups, even as the perceived probability of finding a new job improved to 46.2%. Gas price expectations rebounded 1.4 points to 2.9% after June’s sharp drop, while rent and medical care cost expectations both eased. Household finance perceptions actually improved on net, with fewer respondents reporting a worse financial situation and the perceived odds of higher stock prices climbing to their best level since April 2021. On balance, the stability in three- and five-year inflation expectations is the more important signal for the Fed’s de-anchoring concerns than July’s small one-year dip — but the rise in unemployment expectations alongside still-firm home price and rent expectations suggests the labor-market softening story, not inflation psychology, is where the next shift in the data is likely to come from.

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.6% in Jul (Jun : 3.6%)

7th Jul 2026

Key takeaway: The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for June 2026, released on July 7, showed inflation expectations drifting higher at the short- and medium-term horizons even as households grew more optimistic about jobs and gas prices. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations rose 0.2 percentage points to 3.7% — the highest since September 2023 — while three-year-ahead expectations climbed the same amount to 3.3%, their highest since June 2022, and five-year-ahead expectations held steady at 3.0%. Home price growth expectations eased slightly, down 0.3 points to 3.2%, still above the 12-month trailing average, while median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations ticked up 0.1 point to 2.8%, the highest reading since March 2025. A partial offset came from energy: year-ahead gas price growth expectations tumbled 3.5 percentage points to 1.5% — the lowest since August 2022 — even as respondents raised their expectations for medical care and rent costs. The labor market picture also brightened, with the mean probability of unemployment rising over the next year falling 1.5 points to 41.7% and the perceived probability of losing one’s job down 1.0 point to 14.1%, both improvements from May. Households also grew more confident on credit, with the probability of missing a minimum debt payment falling 1.8 points to 10.8%, its lowest since April 2023. With near- and medium-term inflation expectations both grinding toward multi-year highs even as labor market anxiety eases, the survey complicates the case for near-term rate cuts even as it points to a resilient household sector.

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.7% in Jun (May : 3.5%)

9th Jun 2026

Key takeaway: The NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations for May 2026, released on June 9, offered a modestly encouraging headline on inflation but delivered a broadly deteriorating picture across the labour market and household finances. Median one-year inflation expectations edged down 0.1 percentage point to 3.5%, while the three-year and five-year horizons held steady at 3.1% and 3.0% respectively — with disagreement across respondents declining at all horizons, suggesting some convergence around the view that near-term price pressures are stabilising rather than escalating further. Home price growth expectations rose 0.5 percentage points to 3.5%, their highest reading since July 2022, a signal that consumers see housing costs continuing to outpace broader inflation even as the market cools. Labour market expectations softened, with layoff expectations rising and job-finding expectations falling, while expectations about future credit access, households’ financial situation, and delinquency prospects all deteriorated on the month. Median spending growth expectations fell 0.4 percentage points to 5.0%, with the decline concentrated among respondents over 60 and lower-income households earning under $50,000 — precisely the cohorts most exposed to energy and food price pressures — while median income growth expectations held flat at 2.8%, leaving expected spending growth running nearly twice the pace of expected income gains and pointing to further pressure on household balance sheets in the months ahead.

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.5% in May (Apr : 3.6%)

7th May 2026
Key takeaway: The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for April 2026, released on May 7, showed near-term inflation expectations continuing to drift higher while longer-run expectations held firm. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations rose 0.2 percentage points to 3.6%, while three-year and five-year-ahead expectations were unchanged at 3.1% and 3.0% respectively — with the survey fielded across the full month of April. A partial offset came from energy expectations: median year-ahead gasoline price growth expectations dropped sharply by 4.3 percentage points to 5.1%, retreating from March’s elevated spike as oil markets calmed somewhat following the temporary ceasefire. On the labour market, consumers said they see a 44% probability that unemployment will rise over the next 12 months — the highest reading in a year — signalling mounting anxiety about job security. Credit conditions also deteriorated, with a smaller share of households reporting it is easier to obtain credit and a larger share finding it harder, though the probability of missing a minimum debt payment fell 0.9 percentage points to 11.4% — its lowest in more than two years. The stability of longer-run expectations offers the Fed some reassurance that inflation de-anchoring has not yet taken hold, though the University of Michigan’s April survey — which showed long-run expectations climbing to their highest since October 2025 — suggests the NY Fed’s relatively benign longer-term readings may not tell the full story.

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.6% in Apr (Mar : 3.4%)

7th Apr 2026
Key takeaway: The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for March 2026, released on April 7, showed a notable jump in near-term inflation expectations driven by the Iran war energy shock. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations rose 0.4 percentage points to 3.4% — the highest reading since December 2025 — while three-year-ahead expectations edged up 0.1 percentage point to 3.1%, and five-year-ahead expectations held steady at 3.0%. The key driver was energy: year-ahead gasoline price growth expectations surged 5.3 percentage points to 9.4% — the highest since March 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war triggered a similar energy shock — accompanied by higher expectations for food (6.0%) and rent (7.1%). On the labour market, job-finding expectations improved, but job loss expectations and unemployment rate expectations worsened, with the perceived probability of unemployment rising to its highest level since April 2025. The stability of longer-run expectations — with five-year inflation expectations anchored at 3.0% — offered some reassurance for Fed officials. As NY Fed President John Williams noted, the war-related energy shocks will feed directly into headline inflation, and he expects headline inflation to remain elevated through the middle of the year, though the lack of a broader de-anchoring in long-term expectations suggests the public retains confidence that the Iran shock will not permanently shift the inflation outlook.

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.4% in Mar (Feb : 3.0%)

9th Mar 2026

Key takeaway: Despite witnessing a major inflation episode post Covid in 2021 and 2022, overall inflation expectations have remained remarkably anchored throughout the last 3 years and that trend is expected to be followed this year as well. The latest Survey of Consumer Expectations released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that median one-year-ahead inflation expectations declined slightly to 3.0% in February, down from 3.1% in the previous month, marking the lowest level in around seven months. Meanwhile, median inflation expectations at the three-year and five-year horizons remained unchanged at 3.0%, indicating that longer-term inflation expectations remain relatively well anchored. The survey also showed that median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 2.9%, while expected household spending growth was also steady at 4.9%. Taken together, the latest survey suggests that US consumers’ inflation expectations eased slightly in February, while broader expectations regarding household income and spending remained relatively stable. Median home price growth expectations increased slightly from 2.9% to 3.0%. This series has held in a range of 3.0% to 3.3% since August 2023.

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.0% in Feb (Jan : 3.1%)

9th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: Despite witnessing a major inflation episode post Covid in 2021 and 2022, overall inflation expectations have remained remarkably anchored throughout the last 3 years and that trend is expected to be followed this year as well. The latest January survey results show inflation expectations at the one year horizon declined from 3.4% to 3.1%. Barring some spikes at the start of 2025 due to tariff related fears, one year inflation expectations mostly remained at the level at which they have been stuck since early 2024. However, on average, inflation expectations have been a bit higher in 2025 compared to 2024. Medium and longer term inflation expectations also remarkably continue to remain anchored. In the latest survey for January, inflation expectations at the 3 year and 5 year horizons remained steady at 3.0%. Median home price growth expectations declined slightly from 3.0% to 2.9%. This series has held in a range of 3.0% to 3.3% since August 2023. Median one year ahead expected earnings growth increased from 2.5% to 2.7%. This series has also been moving within a narrow range of 2.5% to 3.0% since May 2021.  

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.1% in Jan (Dec : 3.4%)

8th Jan 2026

Key takeaway: Despite witnessing a major inflation episode post Covid in 2021 and 2022, overall inflation expectations have remained remarkably anchored throughout the last 3 years and that trend is expected to be followed this year as well. The latest December survey results show inflation expectations at the one year horizon slightly higher at 3.4% compared to 3.2% in November. Post the tariff related spike in inflation expectations at the start of the year, one year inflation expectations are mostly back at the level at which they have been stuck since early 2024. However, on average, inflation expectations have been a bit higher in 2025 compared to 2024. Medium and longer term inflation expectations also remarkably continue to remain anchored. In the latest survey for December, inflation expectations at the 3 year and 5 year horizons remained steady at 3.0%. Median home price growth expectations remained unchanged at 3.0%. This series has held in a range of 3.0% to 3.3% since August 2023. Median one year ahead expected earnings growth declined from 2.6% to 2.5%. This series has also been moving within a narrow range of 2.5% to 3.0% since May 2021. The last notable point in the latest survey results was that job finding expectations reached a new series low. As the job market has progressively loosened over the past 2-3 years, it is becoming more difficult to change jobs or find new ones in an economy that is currently low on both hiring and firing. 

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.4% in Dec (Nov : 3.2%)

8th Dec 2025

Key takeaway: Inflation expectations had spiked sharply at the start of the year and further more post the tariff announcements in April / May. Since then, with the tariff rollbacks and the normalization in markets, inflation expectations came rapidly down as well. The latest November survey results show inflation expectations at the one year horizon unchanged at 3.2%. Post the tariff related spike, one year inflation expectations are mostly back at the level at which they have been stuck since early 2024, though at 3.2% it is still slightly elevated. Medium and longer term inflation expectations also remarkably continue to remain anchored. In the latest survey for November, inflation expectations at the 3 year and 5 year horizons remained steady at 3.0%. Median home price growth expectations remained unchanged at 3.0%. This series has held in a range of 3.0% to 3.3% since August 2023. Median one year ahead expected earnings growth also remained unchanged at 2.6%. This series has also been moving within a narrow range of 2.5% to 3.0% since May 2021.  

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.2% in Nov (Oct : 3.2%)

7th Nov 2025

Key takeaway: Inflation expectations had spiked sharply at the start of the year and further more post the tariff announcements in April / May. Since then, with the tariff rollbacks and the normalization in markets, inflation expectations came rapidly down as well. The latest October survey results show inflation expectations at the one year horizon decreased from 3.4% to 3.2%, a reversal of the 0.2% rise seen in the previous month of September. Post the tariff related spike, one year inflation expectations are mostly back at the level at which they have been stuck since early 2024, though at 3.2% it is still slightly elevated. Medium and longer term inflation expectations also remarkably continue to remain anchored. In the latest survey for October, inflation expectations at the 3 year and 5 year horizons remained steady at 3.0%. Median home price growth expectations remained unchanged at 3.0%. This series has held in a range of 3.0% to 3.3% since August 2023. Median one year ahead expected earnings growth increased by 0.2% to 2.6%. This series has also been moving within a narrow range of 2.5% to 3.0% since May 2021.  

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.2% in Oct (Sep : 3.4%)

7th Oct 2025

Key takeaway: Inflation expectations had spiked sharply at the start of the year and further more post the tariff announcements in April / May. Since then, with the tariff rollbacks and the normalization in markets, inflation expectations came rapidly down as well. The latest September survey results show inflation expectations at the one year horizon increased from 3.2% to 3.4%. Post the tariff related spike, one year inflation expectations are mostly back at the level at which they have been stuck since early 2024. However, they have increased for 3 months in a row now. Medium and longer term inflation expectations also remarkably continue to remain anchored. In the latest survey for September, inflation expectations at the 3 year horizon remained steady at 3.0% and those at the 5 year level increased slightly from 2.9% to 3.0%. Median home price growth expectations remained unchanged at 3.0%. This series has held in a range of 3.0% to 3.3% since August 2023. Median one year ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.1% to 2.4%. This series has also been moving within a narrow range of 2.5% to 3.0% since May 2021.  

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.4% in Sep (Aug : 3.2%)

8th Sep 2025

Key takeaway: Inflation expectations had spiked sharply at the start of the year and further more post the tariff announcements in April / May. Since then, with the tariff rollbacks and the normalization in markets, inflation expectations came rapidly down as well. The latest August survey results show inflation expectations at the one year horizon increased slightly from 3.1% to 3.2%. Post the tariff related spike, one year inflation expectations are mostly back at the level at which they have been stuck since early 2024. Medium and longer term inflation expectations also remarkably continue to remain anchored. In the latest survey for August, inflation expectations at the 3 year horizon remained at 3.0% and those at the 5 year level remained at 2.9%. Median home price growth expectations remained unchanged at 3.0%. This series has held in a range of 3.0% to 3.3% since August 2023. Median one year ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.1% to 2.5%. This series has also been moving within a narrow range of 2.5% to 3.0% since May 2021.  

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.2% in Aug (Jul : 3.1%)

7th Aug 2025

Key takeaway: Inflation expectations had spiked sharply at the start of the year and further more post the tariff announcements in April / May. Since then, with the tariff rollbacks and the normalization in markets, inflation expectations came rapidly down as well. The latest survey results show inflation expectations at the one year horizon increased slightly from 3.0% to 3.1%. Post the tariff related spike, one year inflation expectations are mostly back at the level at which they have been stuck since early 2024. Medium and longer term inflation expectations also remarkably continue to remain anchored. In the latest survey for July, inflation expectations at the 3 year horizon remained at 3.0% and those at the 5 year level increased from 2.6% to 2.9%. Median home price growth expectations remained unchanged at 3.0%. This series has held in a range of 3.0% to 3.3% since August 2023. Median one year ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.1% to 2.6%. This series has also been moving within a narrow range of 2.5% to 3.0% since May 2021.  

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.1% in Jul (Jun : 3.0%)

8th Jul 2025

Key takeaway: Inflation expectations had spiked sharply at the start of the year and more so post the tariff announcements in April / May. The latest survey results show inflation expectations at the one year horizon fell further from 3.2% to 3.0%. The tariff related volatility had caused a scenario where soft data like consumer surveys were turning bleak but hard economic data showed continued resilience. One year ahead inflation expectations had rapidly risen from 2.9% at the end of 2024 to 3.6% in April. While this was a substantial spike, it was nowhere close to the high of 6.9% seen in the Michigan survey. However, Chair Powell and other members of the Fed had been insisting that they need to look past these spikes in inflation expectations and believed that expectations remained well anchored. The latest data helps that assertion. The one year ahead inflation expectations have fallen for 2 continuous months from 3.6% to 3.0%. Also, medium and longer term inflation expectations remarkably continue to remain anchored. In the latest survey for June, inflation expectations at the 3 year horizon and those at the 5 year level remained steady at 3.0% and 2.6% respectively. Median home price growth expectations remained unchanged at 3.0%. This series has held in a range of 3.0% to 3.3% since August 2023. Median one year ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.2% to 2.5%. This series has also been moving within a narrow range of 2.5% to 3.0% since May 2021. At 2.5% the latest data point is lower than the range over the past couple of years. 

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.0% in Jun (May : 3.2%)

9th Jun 2025

Key takeaway: Inflation expectations had spiked sharply since the start of the year and especially post the tariff announcements in early May. The latest survey results show inflation expectations at the one year horizon fell sharply from 3.6% to 3.2%. Generally the tariff related volatility had caused a scenario where soft data like consumer surveys were turning bleak but hard economic data showed resilience. One year ahead inflation expectations had rapidly risen from 2.9% at the end of 2024 to 3.6% in April. While this is a substantial spike, it is nowhere close to the high of 6.9% seen in the Michigan survey. However, Chair Powell and other members of the Fed had been insisting that they need to look past these spikes in inflation expectations and believed that expectations remained well anchored. The latest data helps that assertion. Also medium and longer term inflation expectations remarkably continue to remain anchored. In the latest survey for May, inflation expectations at the 3 year horizon decreased by 0.2% to 3.0% and those at the 5 year level fell by 0.1% to 2.6%. Median home price growth expectations decreased by 0.3% to 3.0%. This series has held in a range of 3.0% to 3.3% since August 2023. Median one year ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.2% to 2.7%. This series has also been moving within a narrow range of 2.7% to 3.0% since January 2024. 

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.2% in May (Apr : 3.6%)

8th May 2025

Key takeaway: Consumer inflation expectation surveys had become especially important in the wake of the spike in inflation seen at the start of the year. However since then the tariff related announcements have added fuel to the fire and assessing consumer expectations of future inflation has become paramount for the Fed and the markets. The latest survey results show inflation expectations at the one year horizon remained flat at 3.6%. One year ahead inflation expectations had rapidly risen from 2.9% at the end of 2024 to 3.6% currently. While this is a substantial spike, it is nowhere close to the high of 6.9% seen in the Michigan survey. Also, key to note that the reading was flat this month after all the spikes in recent months. Another key point to note is that medium and longer term inflation expectations remarkably continue to remain anchored. In the latest survey for April, inflation expectations at the 3 year horizon increased by 0.2% to 3.2% but those at the 5 year level fell by 0.2% to 2.7%. Commentaries by ex Fed Governors and Presidents suggest that the Fed relies more on the NY Fed survey than the Michigan one. Also, the Fed has made it clear that it would prefer to rely on hard data instead of the the “soft” consumer sentiment and expectations data to drive its policy decisions. Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.3% to 3.3%. This series has held in a range of 3.0% to 3.3% since August 2023. Median one year ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.3% to 2.5%. This series has also been moving within a narrow range of 2.7% to 3.0% since January 2024. The latest month’s data shows it moving out of the lower end of this range. 

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.6% in Apr (Mar : 3.6%)

14th Apr 2025

Key takeaway: Consumer inflation expectation surveys had become especially important in the wake of the spike in inflation seen at the start of the year. However since then the tariff related announcements have added fuel to the fire and assessing consumer expectations of future inflation has become paramount for the Fed and the markets. The latest survey results show inflation expectations at the one year horizon gained 0.5% from 3.1% to 3.6%. While this is a substantial spike it is nowhere close to the 6.9% seen in the Michigan survey. However, more importantly medium and longer term inflation expectations remarkably continue to remain anchored. In the latest survey for March, inflation expectations at the 3 year horizon remained at 3.0% and those at the 5 year level fell by 0.1% to 2.9%. Commentaries by ex Fed Governors and Presidents suggest that the Fed relies more on the NY Fed survey than the Michigan one. Median home price growth expectations decreased by 0.3% to 3.0%. This series has held in a range of 3.0% to 3.3% since August 2023. Median one year ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.2% to 2.8%. This series has also been moving within a narrow range of 2.7% to 3.0% since January 2024.

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.6% in Mar (Feb : 3.0%)

10th Mar 2025

Key takeaway: Consumer expectation surveys have become especially important over the past few weeks since there has been an inflation spike at the start of the year and recent surveys indicated an uptick in inflation expectations. The latest NY Fed Consumer Expectations Survey showed inflation expectations were mixed across different horizons. Inflation expectations increased from 3.0% to 3.1% at the one year horizon and were unchanged at the three year and five year horizon at 3.0%. Commentaries by ex Fed Governors and Presidents suggest that the Fed relies more on the NY Fed survey than the Michigan one. Although, inflation expectations increased in the NY Fed survey as well, they have not been as sharp as the Michigan survey. Also, longer term inflation expectations still remain well anchored. Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.1% to 3.3%. This series has held in a range of 3.0% to 3.3% since August 2023. Median one year ahead expected earnings growth were unchanged at 3.0%. This series has also been moving within a narrow range of 2.7% to 3.0% since January 2024.

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.0% in Feb (Jan : 3.0%)

10th Feb 2025

Key takeaway: The latest NY Fed Consumer Expectations Survey showed inflation expectations were mixed across different horizons. Inflation expectations remained steady at the one year and three year horizon at 3.0%. while as those that the 5 year horizon increased from 2.7% to 3.0%. This report was especially important since this comes on the heels of the February Michigan Consumer Survey which showed inflation expectations rose very sharply, although that was a February survey compared to the January data for the NY Fed survey. Also, commentaries by ex Fed Governors and Presidents suggest that the Fed relies more on the NY Fed survey than the Michigan one. Nonetheless, the latest bout of increasing inflationary pressures are causing much angst. Yet, similar to recent years, inflation expectations observed from these surveys still remain remarkably well anchored. Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.1% to 3.2%. This series has held in a range of 3.0% to 3.3% since August 2023. Median one year ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.2% to 3.0%. This series has also been moving within a narrow range of 2.7% to 3.0% since January 2024.

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.0% in Jan (Dec 2024 : 3.0%)

13th Jan 2025

Key takeaway: The latest NY Fed Consumer Expectations Survey showed inflation expectations were mixed across different horizons. Inflation expectations remained steady at the one year horizon at 3.0%. Inflation expectations at the 3 year horizon increased sharply from 2.6% to 3.0%, while as those that the 5 year horizon declined from 2.9% to 2.7%. The mixed report comes as a bit of a relief after the January Michigan Consumer Survey which showed inflation expectations rose sharply, although that was a January survey compared to the December data for the NY Fed survey. Nonetheless, the latest bout of increasing inflationary pressures are causing much angst. Yet, similar to recent years, inflation expectations observed from these surveys still remain remarkably well anchored. Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.1% to 3.1%. This series has held in a range of 3.0% to 3.3% since August 2023. Median one year ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.2% to 2.8%. The current reading equals the 12 month trailing average of 2.8%.

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.0% in Dec (Nov 2024 : 3.0%)

9th Dec 2024

Key takeaway: The latest NY Fed Consumer Expectations Survey showed inflation expectations across all horizons were mostly unchanged. Inflation expectations fell 0.1% across the 1, 3 an 5 year horizons. Median inflation expectations at the 3 year horizon had fallen sharply in July from 2.9% to 2.3% and then subsequently risen over August and September to 2.7%. This measure declined by 0.2% to 2.5% in October and increased 0.1% to 2.6% in November. The one year ahead inflation expectation increased by 0.1% to 3.0%. Inflation expectations mostly remain within the bands that they have been in the recent past. Actual inflation though has mostly been lower than expected during the middle half of 2024. Post the surprise hot reports earlier in the year, consumer expectations of inflation and the economy seem to have gotten better. The stock markets have ripped up as well and most broad indicators of the economy continue to suggest a healthy economy.The Survey, similar to the Michigan Survey, continues to paint a picture of positive consumer sentiment about the labour market, wage growth and the future outlook.

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.0% in Nov (Oct 2024 : 2.9%)

12th Nov 2024

Key takeaway: The latest NY Fed Consumer Expectations Survey showed inflation expectations across all horizons were mostly unchanged and within the broad bands that they have been in the recent past. Median inflation expectations at the 3 year horizon had fallen sharply in July from 2.9% to 2.3% and then subsequently risen over August and September to 2.7%. This measure declined by 0.2% to 2.5%. The one year ahead inflation expectation declined by 0.1% to 2.9% and the five year declined from 2.9% to 2.8%. Inflation has mostly been lower than expected during the middle half of 2024. Post the surprise hot reports earlier in the year, consumer expectations of inflation and the economy seem to have gotten better. The stock markets have ripped up as well and most broad indicators of the economy continue to suggest a healthy economy.Also, the fact remains that inflation expectations at the longer term have remained remarkably anchored throughout the past 3 years – which gives the Fed a lot of confidence. Home Price growth expectations were unchanged at 3.0%.

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 2.9% in Oct (Sep 2024 : 3.0%)

15th Oct 2024

Key takeaway: Median inflation expectations at the 3 year horizon had fallen sharply in July from 2.9% to 2.3%. Over the past 2 months, the 3 year horizon inflation expectations has picked back up again to 2.7%. The one year ahead inflation expectation was mostly unchanged at 3.0% and the five year ticked up slightly from 2.8% to 2.9%. Inflation has mostly been lower than expected during the middle half of 2024. Post the surprise hot reports earlier in the year, consumer expectations of inflation and the economy seem to have gotten better. Also, the fact remains that inflation expectations at the longer term have remained remarkably anchored throughout the past 3 years. Home Price growth expectations decreased from 3.1% to 3.0%.

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.0% in Sep (Aug 2024 : 3.0%)

9th Sep 2024

Key takeaway: Median inflation expectations at the 3 year horizon had fallen sharply in July from 2.9% to 2.3%. The latest August report showed 3 year horizon inflation expectations pick back up again from 2.3% to 2.5%. However, the number was still lower compared to a couple of months earlier. The one and five year expectations were mostly unchanged at 3.0% and 2.8% respectively. Hard inflation data has been printing weak numbers for 4 months in a row. Post the surprise hot reports earlier in the year, consumer expectations of inflation and the economy seem to have gotten better. Also, the fact remains that inflation expectations at the longer term have remained remarkably anchored throughout the past 3 years. Median one year ahead wage gain expectations increased from 2.7% to 2.9%. This number has been within the 2.7% to 3.0% range since January 2024. Home Price growth expectations increased from 3.0% to 3.1%.

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.0% in Aug (Jul 2024 : 3.0%)

12th Aug 2024

Key takeaway: In another welcome sign on the inflation front, consumer expectations for future inflation fell sharply according to the latest NY Fed Consumer Expectations Survey release. The latest release showed median inflation expectations at the 3 year horizon fell sharply from 2.9% to 2.3%. However, the one and five year expectations were mostly unchanged at 3.0% and 2.8% respectively. Hard inflation data has been printing weak numbers for 4 months in a row. Post the surprise hot reports earlier in the year, consumer expectations of inflation and the economy seem to have gotten better. Also, the fact remains that inflation expectations at the longer term have remained remarkably anchored throughout the past 3 years. Median one year ahead wage gain expectations also declined from 3.0% to 2.7%. This number has been within the 2.7% to 3.0% range since January 2024. Home Price growth expectations were unchanged at 3.0%.   

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.0% in Jul (Jun 2024 : 3.0%)

8th Jul 2024

Key takeaway: Once again a rather uneventful NY Fed Consumer Expectations Survey release. The latest release showed median inflation expectations at the one year ahead horizon declined slightly from 3.2% from 3.0%. The median at the 3 year horizon increased 0.1% to 2.9%. And the median at the 5 year horizon decreased 0.2% to 2.8%. Broadly, not much changed in this survey data. After a couple of months of softer inflation data post the surprise hot reports earlier in the year, consumer expectations of inflation and the economy seem to have gotten better. Also, the fact remains that inflation expectations at the medium and longer term have remained remarkably anchored throughout the past 3 years. Nonetheless the inflation surprises earlier in the year are likely to keep the Fed on tenterhooks. Median one year ahead wage gain expectations increased from 2.7% to 3.0%. Home Price growth expectations decreased from 3.3% to 3.0%.   

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.0% in Jun (May 2024 : 3.2%)

10th Jun 2024

Key takeaway: A non-descript Consumer Inflation Expectations data release after having reported an inflationary on last month for April. The latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed median inflation expectations at the one year ahead horizon declined slightly to 3.2% from 3.3%. The median remained unchanged at 2.8% at the 3 year horizon and increased from 2.8% to 3.0% at the 5 year horizon. The rise at the 5 year horizon was probably the only meaningful takeaway from the data release. After a couple of months of softer inflation data after the surprise hot reports earlier in the year, consumer expectations of inflation and the economy seem to have gotten better. Also, the fact remains that inflation expectations at the medium and longer term have remained remarkably anchored throughout the past 3 years. Nonetheless the inflation surprises earlier in the year are likely to keep the Fed on tenterhooks. Median one year ahead wage gain expectations were unchanged 2.7%. Home Price growth expectations were also unchanged at 3.3%.   

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.2% in May (Apr 2024 : 3.3%)

13th May 2024

Key takeaway: After having stalled at 3.0% for the past 4 months, the one year ahead inflation expectation rose sharply from 3.0% to 3.3%, according to the latest release of the NY Survey of Consumer Expectations data. Similarly, the 5 year inflation expectation number also moved up from 2.6% in March to 2.8% in April. This sharp rise in inflation expectations was also witnessed in the Michigan Consumer Survey. The Fed pays close attention to both these surveys. Although, it is too early to say that inflation expectations have meaningfully and sustainably moved higher. The fact remains that inflation expectations at the medium and longer term have remained remarkably anchored throughout the past 3 years. Nonetheless the recent data points are concerning and the Fed will be taking note. Median one year ahead wage gain expectations were slightly lower from 2.8% to 2.7%. Home Price growth expectations though moved up from 3.0% to 3.3%.   

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.3% in Apr (Mar 2024 : 3.0%)

8th Apr 2024

Key takeaway: Inflation has come down significantly from the highs of 2022, as evidenced by the CPI and PCE prints. However, more importantly, consumer expectations of future inflation, as evidenced by these survey measures have also moderated and longer term inflation expectations have always been range bound and never really went out of control. The Fed pays close attention to inflation expectations noted in these surveys. However, in an important development, the February NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations released on 11th March 2024 showed medium and long term expectations jumped up sharply. The 5 year ahead inflation expectations increased from 2.5% to 2.9%. Similarly, the 3 year ahead inflation expectations measure increased from 2.4% to 2.7%. Both these increases were meaningful. The latest March survey released on 8th April however, was a mixed bag on inflation expectations. Firstly, the one year ahead inflation expectations measure remained steady at 3.0%. Even though, inflation has risen in the past couple of months, short run inflation expectations have not changed much. The 3 year and 5 year inflation expectations were a mixed bag. The 3 year increased from 2.7% to 2.9% and 5 year decreased fromm 2.9% to 2.7%. On the balance though, the key message remains that inflation expectations are well anchored. Median home price growth expectations were unchanged at 3.0% in March. Median one year ahead wage gain expectations were unchanged at 2.8%.  

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.0% in Mar (Feb 2024 : 3.0%)

11th Mar 2024

Key takeaway: Inflation has been rapidly declining for the past few months as evidenced by the CPI and PCE prints. However, more importantly, consumer expectations of future inflation, as evidenced by these survey measures have also been falling rapidly. The Fed pays close attention to inflation expectations noted in these surveys. However, in an important development, the latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations released on 11th March 2024 showed medium and long term expectations jumped up sharply. The 5 year ahead inflation expectations increased from 2.5% to 2.9%. Similarly, the 3 year ahead inflation expectations measure increased from 2.4% to 2.7%. Both these increases were meaningful. But it is also key to bear in mind that just 1 month data point does not indicate a trend. The one year ahead inflation expectations measure remained steady at 3.0%. Median home price growth expectations were unchanged at 3.0% in February. Median one year ahead wage gain expectations were unchanged at 2.8%.  

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.0% in Feb (Jan 2024 : 3.0%)

12th Feb 2024

Key takeaway: Inflation has been rapidly declining for the past few months as evidenced by the CPI and PCE prints. However, more importantly, consumer expectations of future inflation, as evidenced by these survey measures has also been falling rapidly. The Fed pays close attention to inflation expectations noted in these surveys. The latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed one year ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.0% from December. Similarly, 5 year ahead inflation expectations were also flat at 2.5%. The 3 year ahead inflation expectations measure declined slightly from 2.6% to 2.4%. Median home price growth expectations were unchanged at 3.0% in January. This number is still well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.4%. Median one year ahead wage gain expectations increased from 2.5% to 2.8%.  

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.0% in Jan (Dec 2023 : 3.0%)

8th Jan 2024

Key takeaway: The trend in falling inflation expectations continues unabated. Both, the NY Fed Consumer Expectations Survey and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, have shown large drops in 1 year ahead inflation expectations. The NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed one year ahead inflation expectations dropped from 3.6% in October to 3.4% in November and 3.0% in December. Medium term and long term inflation expectations have mostly been range bound in the recent past around the 2.7% to 3.0% range. However, the latest NY Fed Survey showed 3 year inflation expectations fell from 3.0% to 2.6% and the 5 year fell from 2.7% to 2.5%. The Fed monitors both these surveys closely and the sharp drop in inflation expectations gives the Fed a lot of comfort. Median home price growth expectations were unchanged at 3.0% in December. This number is still well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.4%. Median one year ahead wage gain expectations decreased from 2.7% to 2.5%. While this is not a large drop, it is noteworthy nonetheless.  

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.0% in Dec (Nov 2023 : 3.4%)

11th Dec 2023

Key takeaway: Similar to the sharp drop seen in the recently released Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations also showed a drop in one year ahead inflation expectations (from 3.6% in October to 3.4% in November). This is the lowest reading since April 2021. Medium term and long term inflation expectations were also mostly unchanged (in the 2.7% to 3.0% range). The Fed monitors both these surveys closely and the sharp drop in inflation expectations gives the Fed a lot of comfort. Median home price growth expectations were unchanged at 3.0% in November. This number is still well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.1%. Median one year ahead wage gain expectations also remain well anchored within a range of 2.7% to 3.0%. The latest print in October saw one year ahead wage growth expectations fall from 2.8% in October to 2.7% in November.  

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.4% in Nov (Oct 2023 : 3.6%)

14th Nov 2023

Key takeaway: For a 3rd month in a row, the inflation expectations data in the latest NY Fed Consumer Survey report was mostly stable. This is in contrast to the sharp drops in 1 year ahead inflation expectations that we had seen through most of 2023. Data for the month of October showed one year inflation expectations inched lower slightly from 3.7% to 3.6%. Medium term and long term inflation expectations were also mostly unchanged (in the 2.7% to 3.0% range). Median home price growth expectations were unchanged at 3.0% in October. This number is still well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.1%. Residential real estate has seen a mini-boom since the start of 2023. Any rise in real estate appreciation expectations can have downstream effects on future consumer inflation. On the other hand, median one year ahead wage gain expectations remain anchored within a range of 2.8% to 3.0%. The latest print in October saw one year ahead wage growth expectations fall from 3.0% in September to 2.8% in October. Overall, this report was a steady-as-it-gets report.   

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.6% in Oct (Sep 2023 : 3.7%)

10th Oct 2023

Key takeaway: For a 2nd month in a row, the inflation expectations data in the latest NY Fed Consumer Survey report was mostly stable. This is in contrast to the sharp drops in 1 year ahead inflation expectations that we had seen through most of 2023. Data for the month of September showed one year inflation expectations inched up slightly from 3.6% to 3.7%. Medium term and long term inflation expectations were also mostly unchanged (in the 2.8% to 3.0% range). Median home price growth expectations decreased from 3.1% in August to 3.0% in September. This number is still well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.0%. Residential real estate has seen a mini-boom since the start of 2023. Any rise in real estate appreciation expectations can have downstream effects on future consumer inflation. On the other hand, median one year ahead wage gain expectations remain anchored within a range of 2.8% to 3.0%.  

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.7% in Sep (Aug 2023 : 3.6%)

11th Sep 2023

Key takeaway: Unlike recent consumer survey reports, the inflation expectations data in the latest NY Fed Consumer Survey report was mostly stable. One year ahead inflation expectations had rapidly declined in the past few months. Data for the month of August showed one year inflation expectations inched up slightly from 3.5% to 3.6%. Medium term and long term inflation expectations were also mostly unchanged (in the 2.8% to 3.0% range). Median home price growth expectations increased from 2.8% in July to 3.1% in August. This number is still well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.0%. Residential real estate has seen a mini-boom since the start of 2023. Any rise in real estate appreciation expectations can have downstream effects on future consumer inflation. On the other hand, median one year ahead wage gain expectations remain anchored within a range of 2.8% to 3.0%.  

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.6% in August (July 2023 : 3.5%)

14th Aug 2023

Key takeaway: The decline in one year ahead inflation expectations continued in August for the 4th month in a row. The one year ahead inflation expectations have fallen sharply – from 4.7% in March to 4.4% in April to 4.1% in May to 3.8% in June and now finally to 3.5% in July. This is welcome news from the Fed’s inflation fighting perspective. Median inflation expectations also remained fairly anchored in the range of 2.8% to 3.0%. Median home price growth expectations decreased from 2.9% in June to 2.8% in July. However, this number is still well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.0%. Residential real estate has seen a mini-boom since the start of 2023. Any rise in real estate appreciation expectations can have downstream effects on future consumer inflation. On the other hand, median one year ahead wage gain expectations remain anchored within a range of 2.8% to 3.0%.  

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.5% in July (June 2023 : 3.8%)

10th Jul 2023

Key takeaway: For the 3rd month in a row, one year ahead inflation expectations have fallen sharply – from 4.7% in March to 4.4% in April to 4.1% in May and finally now down to 3.8% in June. This is welcome news from the Fed’s inflation fighting perspective. Similarly median inflation expectations remained fairly anchored with the 3 year ahead inflation expectations remaining the same at 2.8% and the 5 year ahead inflation expectations increasing by 0.3% to 3.0%. However, on the other hand, median home price appreciation expectations also increased for the fifth consecutive month from 2.6% in May to 2.9% in June. Median one year ahead wage growth expectations increased by 0.2% in June. However, this data point has been fairly range bound between 2.8% to 3.0% since Sep 2021. 

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.8% in June (May 2023 4.1%)

12th Jun 2023

Key takeaway: The Michigan Consumer Survey, The Conference Board Consumer Survey and the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations are the 3 most important surveys that are used to gauge strength, current views and future expectations of the US consumer with respect to a variety of factors including inflation, wages and spend. The Fed pays close attention to each of these 3 surveys to keep its fingers on the consumer’s pulse. The latest survey results for the month of May from the NY Fed were positive overall. Firstly, short term inflation expectations which had jumped sharply in March, fell for 2 consecutive months in April and May. At 4.1%, the one year ahead inflation expectations reading is the lowest since May 2021. This will be welcome news for the Fed ahead of its Tuesday meeting. Median inflation expectations (3 years) have remained range bound at 2.8% – 2.9% and long term inflation expectations also remained range bound at 2.5 – 2.7%. It is key to highlight that these range bound longer term inflation expectation numbers (in all the 3 surveys) have been one of the key reasons the Fed believes that inflation expectations are still well anchored. Median one year ahead wage growth expectations have also been fairly range bound. In May, the one year ahead wage growth expectations fell from 3.0% to 2.8%. Household spending growth expectations increased back from 5.2% in Apr from 5.6% in May. This indicator too has been trending down since hitting a peak of 9.0% in May 2022. Lastly, median home price growth expectations increased  for the 4th consecutive month from 2.5% in Apr to 2.6% in May. While this is still below the past 12 month trailing average of 3.0% as well as pre-pandemic levels, the reading should be considered together with other current data observed in the US Residential Market. The housing market seems to have reached a bottom with significant activity in the new home sales market and rising prices seen in reports from private players in the Housing market. 

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 4.1% (Apr 2023 4.4%)

8th May 2023

Key takeaway: The Michigan Consumer Survey, The Conference Board Consumer Survey and the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations are the 3 most important surveys that are used to gauge strength, current views and future expectations of the US consumer with respect to a variety of factors including inflation, wages and spend. The Fed pays close attention to each of these 3 surveys to keep its fingers on the consumer’s pulse. After having jumped sharply in March, short term inflation expectations (one year ahead) fell back down from 4.7% to 4.4%. Generally, one year inflation expectations have trended down as the Fed has unflinchingly raised rates over the past 12 months. Median inflation expectations (3 years) have remained range bound at 2.8% – 2.9% and long term inflation expectations also remained range bound at 2.5 – 2.6%%. It is key to highlight that these range bound longer term inflation expectation numbers (in all the 3 surveys) have been one of the key reasons the Fed believes that inflation expectations are still well anchored. Median one year ahead wage growth also remained fairly range bound at 3.0%. This series has been moving in a narrow range of 2.8% to 3.0% since Sep 2021. Household spending growth expectations decreased to 5.2% in Apr from 5.7% in Mar. This indicator too has been trending down since hitting a peak of 9.0% in May 2022. Lastly, median home price growth expectations increased by 0.7% to 2.5% in Apr. While this is still below the past 12 month trailing average of 3.0% as well as pre-pandemic levels, the reading should be considered together with other current data observed in the US Residential Market. The housing market seems to have reached a bottom with significant activity in the new home sales market and rising prices seen in reports from private players in the Housing market. 

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 4.4% (Mar 2023 4.7%)

10th Apr 2023

Key takeaway: The Michigan Consumer Survey, The Conference Board Consumer Survey and the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations are the 3 most important surveys that are used to gauge strength, current views and future expectations of the US consumer with respect to a variety of factors including inflation, wages and spend. The Fed pays close attention to each of these 3 surveys to keep its fingers on the consumer’s pulse. In a key development, short term inflation expectations (one year ahead) increased sharply according to the March NY Fed survey released in April. One year ahead inflation expectations increased 0.5% from 4.2% to 4.7%. This rate has trended down for the past 9 months since hitting a peak of 6.2% in July 2022. However, this was the first increase since Oct 2022. Median inflation expectations (3 years) remained range bound at 2.8% and long term inflation expectations also remained range bound at 2.5%. It is key to highlight that these range bound longer term inflation expectation numbers (in all the 3 surveys) have been one of the key reasons the Fed believes that inflation expectations are still well anchored. Median one year ahead wage growth also remained fairly range bound at 3.0%. This series has been moving in a narrow range of 2.8% to 3.0% since Sep 2021. Lastly, household spending growth expectations decreased to 5.7% in Mar from 5.6% in Feb. This indicator too has been trending down since hitting a peak of 9.0% in May 2022. Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.4% to 1.8% in Mar, still below the past 12 month trailing average of 3.0% as well as pre-pandemic levels.

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 4.7% (Feb 2023 4.2%)

13th Mar 2023

Key takeaway: The Michigan Consumer Survey, The Conference Board Consumer Survey and the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations are the 3 most important surveys that are used to gauge strength, current views and future expectations of the US consumer with respect to a variety of factors including inflation, wages and spend. The Fed pays close attention to each of these 3 surveys to keep its fingers on the consumer’s pulse. In a key development, short term inflation expectations (one year ahead) decreased sharply according to the February NY Fed survey released in March. One year ahead inflation expectations fell 0.8% from 5.0% to 4.2%. This rate has trended down for the past 9 months since hitting a peak of 6.2% in July 2022. Median inflation expectations (3 years) remained range bound at 2.7% and long term inflation expectations also remained range bound at 2.6%. It is key to highlight that these range bound longer term inflation expectation numbers (in all the 3 surveys) have been one of the key reasons the Fed believes that inflation expectations are still well anchored. Median one year ahead wage growth also remained fairly range bound at 3.0%. This series has been moving in a narrow range of 2.8% to 3.0% since Sep 2021. Lastly, household spending growth expectations decreased to 5.6% in Feb from 5.7% in March. This indicator too has been trending down since hitting a peak of 9.0% in May 2022.

• NY Fed Survey US Consumer Inflation Expectations at 4.2% (Jan 2023 5.0%)