US Macro Updates

The One Stop Portal for US Macroeconomic Data. Simplified and Summarized! 

We simplify and summarize key data so that you don’t have to spend hours reading confusing and long media releases. Read key economic releases and major events here in under 2 minutes. And we will explain the key takeaway for you. Stay informed and form a robust view on macroeconomic matters to aid your successful investment decisions

13th May 2024

NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations

Key takeaway: After having stalled at 3.0% for the past 4 months, the one year ahead inflation expectation rose sharply from 3.0% to 3.3%, according to the latest release of the NY Survey of Consumer Expectations data. Similarly, the 5 year inflation expectation number also moved up from 2.6% in March to 2.8% in April. This sharp rise in inflation expectations was also witnessed in the Michigan Consumer Survey. The Fed pays close attention to both these surveys. Although, it is too early to say that inflation expectations have meaningfully and sustainably moved higher. The fact remains that inflation expectations at the medium and longer term have remained remarkably anchored throughout the past 3 years. Nonetheless the recent data points are concerning and the Fed will be taking note. Median one year ahead wage gain expectations were slightly lower from 2.8% to 2.7%. Home Price growth expectations though moved up from 3.0% to 3.3%.   

8th Apr 2024

Key takeaway: Inflation has come down significantly from the highs of 2022, as evidenced by the CPI and PCE prints. However, more importantly, consumer expectations of future inflation, as evidenced by these survey measures have also moderated and longer term inflation expectations have always been range bound and never really went out of control. The Fed pays close attention to inflation expectations noted in these surveys. However, in an important development, the February NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations released on 11th March 2024 showed medium and long term expectations jumped up sharply. The 5 year ahead inflation expectations increased from 2.5% to 2.9%. Similarly, the 3 year ahead inflation expectations measure increased from 2.4% to 2.7%. Both these increases were meaningful. The latest March survey released on 8th April however, was a mixed bag on inflation expectations. Firstly, the one year ahead inflation expectations measure remained steady at 3.0%. Even though, inflation has risen in the past couple of months, short run inflation expectations have not changed much. The 3 year and 5 year inflation expectations were a mixed bag. The 3 year increased from 2.7% to 2.9% and 5 year decreased fromm 2.9% to 2.7%. On the balance though, the key message remains that inflation expectations are well anchored. Median home price growth expectations were unchanged at 3.0% in March. Median one year ahead wage gain expectations were unchanged at 2.8%.  

11th Mar 2024

Key takeaway: Inflation has been rapidly declining for the past few months as evidenced by the CPI and PCE prints. However, more importantly, consumer expectations of future inflation, as evidenced by these survey measures have also been falling rapidly. The Fed pays close attention to inflation expectations noted in these surveys. However, in an important development, the latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations released on 11th March 2024 showed medium and long term expectations jumped up sharply. The 5 year ahead inflation expectations increased from 2.5% to 2.9%. Similarly, the 3 year ahead inflation expectations measure increased from 2.4% to 2.7%. Both these increases were meaningful. But it is also key to bear in mind that just 1 month data point does not indicate a trend. The one year ahead inflation expectations measure remained steady at 3.0%. Median home price growth expectations were unchanged at 3.0% in February. Median one year ahead wage gain expectations were unchanged at 2.8%.  

12th Feb 2024

Key takeaway: Inflation has been rapidly declining for the past few months as evidenced by the CPI and PCE prints. However, more importantly, consumer expectations of future inflation, as evidenced by these survey measures has also been falling rapidly. The Fed pays close attention to inflation expectations noted in these surveys. The latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed one year ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.0% from December. Similarly, 5 year ahead inflation expectations were also flat at 2.5%. The 3 year ahead inflation expectations measure declined slightly from 2.6% to 2.4%. Median home price growth expectations were unchanged at 3.0% in January. This number is still well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.4%. Median one year ahead wage gain expectations increased from 2.5% to 2.8%.  

8th Jan 2024

Key takeaway: The trend in falling inflation expectations continues unabated. Both, the NY Fed Consumer Expectations Survey and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, have shown large drops in 1 year ahead inflation expectations. The NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed one year ahead inflation expectations dropped from 3.6% in October to 3.4% in November and 3.0% in December. Medium term and long term inflation expectations have mostly been range bound in the recent past around the 2.7% to 3.0% range. However, the latest NY Fed Survey showed 3 year inflation expectations fell from 3.0% to 2.6% and the 5 year fell from 2.7% to 2.5%. The Fed monitors both these surveys closely and the sharp drop in inflation expectations gives the Fed a lot of comfort. Median home price growth expectations were unchanged at 3.0% in December. This number is still well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.4%. Median one year ahead wage gain expectations decreased from 2.7% to 2.5%. While this is not a large drop, it is noteworthy nonetheless.  

11th Dec 2023

Key takeaway: Similar to the sharp drop seen in the recently released Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations also showed a drop in one year ahead inflation expectations (from 3.6% in October to 3.4% in November). This is the lowest reading since April 2021. Medium term and long term inflation expectations were also mostly unchanged (in the 2.7% to 3.0% range). The Fed monitors both these surveys closely and the sharp drop in inflation expectations gives the Fed a lot of comfort. Median home price growth expectations were unchanged at 3.0% in November. This number is still well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.1%. Median one year ahead wage gain expectations also remain well anchored within a range of 2.7% to 3.0%. The latest print in October saw one year ahead wage growth expectations fall from 2.8% in October to 2.7% in November.  

14th Nov 2023

Key takeaway: For a 3rd month in a row, the inflation expectations data in the latest NY Fed Consumer Survey report was mostly stable. This is in contrast to the sharp drops in 1 year ahead inflation expectations that we had seen through most of 2023. Data for the month of October showed one year inflation expectations inched lower slightly from 3.7% to 3.6%. Medium term and long term inflation expectations were also mostly unchanged (in the 2.7% to 3.0% range). Median home price growth expectations were unchanged at 3.0% in October. This number is still well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.1%. Residential real estate has seen a mini-boom since the start of 2023. Any rise in real estate appreciation expectations can have downstream effects on future consumer inflation. On the other hand, median one year ahead wage gain expectations remain anchored within a range of 2.8% to 3.0%. The latest print in October saw one year ahead wage growth expectations fall from 3.0% in September to 2.8% in October. Overall, this report was a steady-as-it-gets report.   

10th Oct 2023

Key takeaway: For a 2nd month in a row, the inflation expectations data in the latest NY Fed Consumer Survey report was mostly stable. This is in contrast to the sharp drops in 1 year ahead inflation expectations that we had seen through most of 2023. Data for the month of September showed one year inflation expectations inched up slightly from 3.6% to 3.7%. Medium term and long term inflation expectations were also mostly unchanged (in the 2.8% to 3.0% range). Median home price growth expectations decreased from 3.1% in August to 3.0% in September. This number is still well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.0%. Residential real estate has seen a mini-boom since the start of 2023. Any rise in real estate appreciation expectations can have downstream effects on future consumer inflation. On the other hand, median one year ahead wage gain expectations remain anchored within a range of 2.8% to 3.0%.  

11th Sep 2023

Key takeaway: Unlike recent consumer survey reports, the inflation expectations data in the latest NY Fed Consumer Survey report was mostly stable. One year ahead inflation expectations had rapidly declined in the past few months. Data for the month of August showed one year inflation expectations inched up slightly from 3.5% to 3.6%. Medium term and long term inflation expectations were also mostly unchanged (in the 2.8% to 3.0% range). Median home price growth expectations increased from 2.8% in July to 3.1% in August. This number is still well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.0%. Residential real estate has seen a mini-boom since the start of 2023. Any rise in real estate appreciation expectations can have downstream effects on future consumer inflation. On the other hand, median one year ahead wage gain expectations remain anchored within a range of 2.8% to 3.0%.  

14th Aug 2023

Key takeaway: The decline in one year ahead inflation expectations continued in August for the 4th month in a row. The one year ahead inflation expectations have fallen sharply – from 4.7% in March to 4.4% in April to 4.1% in May to 3.8% in June and now finally to 3.5% in July. This is welcome news from the Fed’s inflation fighting perspective. Median inflation expectations also remained fairly anchored in the range of 2.8% to 3.0%. Median home price growth expectations decreased from 2.9% in June to 2.8% in July. However, this number is still well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.0%. Residential real estate has seen a mini-boom since the start of 2023. Any rise in real estate appreciation expectations can have downstream effects on future consumer inflation. On the other hand, median one year ahead wage gain expectations remain anchored within a range of 2.8% to 3.0%.  

10th Jul 2023

Key takeaway: For the 3rd month in a row, one year ahead inflation expectations have fallen sharply – from 4.7% in March to 4.4% in April to 4.1% in May and finally now down to 3.8% in June. This is welcome news from the Fed’s inflation fighting perspective. Similarly median inflation expectations remained fairly anchored with the 3 year ahead inflation expectations remaining the same at 2.8% and the 5 year ahead inflation expectations increasing by 0.3% to 3.0%. However, on the other hand, median home price appreciation expectations also increased for the fifth consecutive month from 2.6% in May to 2.9% in June. Median one year ahead wage growth expectations increased by 0.2% in June. However, this data point has been fairly range bound between 2.8% to 3.0% since Sep 2021. 

12th Jun 2023

Key takeaway: The Michigan Consumer Survey, The Conference Board Consumer Survey and the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations are the 3 most important surveys that are used to gauge strength, current views and future expectations of the US consumer with respect to a variety of factors including inflation, wages and spend. The Fed pays close attention to each of these 3 surveys to keep its fingers on the consumer’s pulse. The latest survey results for the month of May from the NY Fed were positive overall. Firstly, short term inflation expectations which had jumped sharply in March, fell for 2 consecutive months in April and May. At 4.1%, the one year ahead inflation expectations reading is the lowest since May 2021. This will be welcome news for the Fed ahead of its Tuesday meeting. Median inflation expectations (3 years) have remained range bound at 2.8% – 2.9% and long term inflation expectations also remained range bound at 2.5 – 2.7%. It is key to highlight that these range bound longer term inflation expectation numbers (in all the 3 surveys) have been one of the key reasons the Fed believes that inflation expectations are still well anchored. Median one year ahead wage growth expectations have also been fairly range bound. In May, the one year ahead wage growth expectations fell from 3.0% to 2.8%. Household spending growth expectations increased back from 5.2% in Apr from 5.6% in May. This indicator too has been trending down since hitting a peak of 9.0% in May 2022. Lastly, median home price growth expectations increased  for the 4th consecutive month from 2.5% in Apr to 2.6% in May. While this is still below the past 12 month trailing average of 3.0% as well as pre-pandemic levels, the reading should be considered together with other current data observed in the US Residential Market. The housing market seems to have reached a bottom with significant activity in the new home sales market and rising prices seen in reports from private players in the Housing market. 

8th May 2023

Key takeaway: The Michigan Consumer Survey, The Conference Board Consumer Survey and the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations are the 3 most important surveys that are used to gauge strength, current views and future expectations of the US consumer with respect to a variety of factors including inflation, wages and spend. The Fed pays close attention to each of these 3 surveys to keep its fingers on the consumer’s pulse. After having jumped sharply in March, short term inflation expectations (one year ahead) fell back down from 4.7% to 4.4%. Generally, one year inflation expectations have trended down as the Fed has unflinchingly raised rates over the past 12 months. Median inflation expectations (3 years) have remained range bound at 2.8% – 2.9% and long term inflation expectations also remained range bound at 2.5 – 2.6%%. It is key to highlight that these range bound longer term inflation expectation numbers (in all the 3 surveys) have been one of the key reasons the Fed believes that inflation expectations are still well anchored. Median one year ahead wage growth also remained fairly range bound at 3.0%. This series has been moving in a narrow range of 2.8% to 3.0% since Sep 2021. Household spending growth expectations decreased to 5.2% in Apr from 5.7% in Mar. This indicator too has been trending down since hitting a peak of 9.0% in May 2022. Lastly, median home price growth expectations increased by 0.7% to 2.5% in Apr. While this is still below the past 12 month trailing average of 3.0% as well as pre-pandemic levels, the reading should be considered together with other current data observed in the US Residential Market. The housing market seems to have reached a bottom with significant activity in the new home sales market and rising prices seen in reports from private players in the Housing market. 

10th Apr 2023

Key takeaway: The Michigan Consumer Survey, The Conference Board Consumer Survey and the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations are the 3 most important surveys that are used to gauge strength, current views and future expectations of the US consumer with respect to a variety of factors including inflation, wages and spend. The Fed pays close attention to each of these 3 surveys to keep its fingers on the consumer’s pulse. In a key development, short term inflation expectations (one year ahead) increased sharply according to the March NY Fed survey released in April. One year ahead inflation expectations increased 0.5% from 4.2% to 4.7%. This rate has trended down for the past 9 months since hitting a peak of 6.2% in July 2022. However, this was the first increase since Oct 2022. Median inflation expectations (3 years) remained range bound at 2.8% and long term inflation expectations also remained range bound at 2.5%. It is key to highlight that these range bound longer term inflation expectation numbers (in all the 3 surveys) have been one of the key reasons the Fed believes that inflation expectations are still well anchored. Median one year ahead wage growth also remained fairly range bound at 3.0%. This series has been moving in a narrow range of 2.8% to 3.0% since Sep 2021. Lastly, household spending growth expectations decreased to 5.7% in Mar from 5.6% in Feb. This indicator too has been trending down since hitting a peak of 9.0% in May 2022. Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.4% to 1.8% in Mar, still below the past 12 month trailing average of 3.0% as well as pre-pandemic levels.

13th Mar 2023

Key takeaway: The Michigan Consumer Survey, The Conference Board Consumer Survey and the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations are the 3 most important surveys that are used to gauge strength, current views and future expectations of the US consumer with respect to a variety of factors including inflation, wages and spend. The Fed pays close attention to each of these 3 surveys to keep its fingers on the consumer’s pulse. In a key development, short term inflation expectations (one year ahead) decreased sharply according to the February NY Fed survey released in March. One year ahead inflation expectations fell 0.8% from 5.0% to 4.2%. This rate has trended down for the past 9 months since hitting a peak of 6.2% in July 2022. Median inflation expectations (3 years) remained range bound at 2.7% and long term inflation expectations also remained range bound at 2.6%. It is key to highlight that these range bound longer term inflation expectation numbers (in all the 3 surveys) have been one of the key reasons the Fed believes that inflation expectations are still well anchored. Median one year ahead wage growth also remained fairly range bound at 3.0%. This series has been moving in a narrow range of 2.8% to 3.0% since Sep 2021. Lastly, household spending growth expectations decreased to 5.6% in Feb from 5.7% in March. This indicator too has been trending down since hitting a peak of 9.0% in May 2022.

The Survey of Consumer Expectations contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave. It also provides insight into Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty regarding consumers’ outlooks. Expectations are also available by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy. The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month.

New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations