US Macro Updates

Key takeaway: The US Housing Market is a key component of the overall US economy and often a leading indicator of upcoming economic performance! After a relatively positive 2023 first half, high mortgage rates are taking a toll on residential real estate activity. 

• Active listing count was at 737K in Oct 2023. Firstly, this is still substantially below pre-pandemic levels (a range of 1,200K to 1,300K) – highlighting the continuing shortage of existing homes. Secondly, and more importantly, active listings have been lower than even 2022 levels for most of the summer. With sky high mortgage rates, sellers are not incentivised to give up their current low rate mortgages and trade up to a newer home. How long does this phenomenon continue will be the key point to watch. It does look like we are likely to see active listing count and inventory increase atleast slightly to match or just increase above 2022 levels
• New listings were at 348K in Oct 2023. Once again, pre-pandemic averages, were closer to 450K around this time of the year. In stark contrast, new listings remain substantially lower as sellers continue to stay away from the market due to the above mentioned mortgage lock phenomenon. However, similar to the active listing count it does look like gradually new listing will increase and be above 2022 levels. 
• The number of homes under contract (pending listings) was at 382K in Oct 2023. The Oct count was 7% lower year over year. As mortgage rates have soared close to 8%, it would not be a surprise to see a sharp fall in the pending listing count data for the rest of the year. It is key to note that pending sales are an early indicator of the direction of sales that we are likely to see through the next few months 
• Days on market – the time typically spent by a home on the market – was 50 days in Oct. Once again this was higher than the boom years of 2021 and roughly equal to Oct 2022, but still lower than pre-pandemic averages of about 65-70 days. Similar to the pending listings data, a gradual rise in the days on market number will be a key data point to watch. 
• Median listing price decreased m-o-m in October 2023 to $425K from $430K in September. On a y-o-y basis, median listing price is about the same as October 2022.  

Overall the US housing market seemed to have formed a bottom in early 2023  (after a muted 2022), marked by still resilient buyer demand and lower supply of both new and existing homes. However, with sky high mortgage rates, residential real estate activity seems to be weakening again.

Realtor.com October 2023 Housing Market Report

5th Oct 2023

Key takeaway: The US Housing Market is a key component of the overall US economy and often a leading indicator of upcoming economic performance! After a relatively positive 2023 first half, high mortgage rates are taking a toll on residential real estate activity. 

• Active listing count was at 701K in Sep 2023. Firstly, this is still substantially below pre-pandemic levels (a range of 1,100K to 1,300K) – highlighting the continuing shortage of existing homes. Secondly, and more importantly, active listings are now even lower than 2022. Active listing count had fallen substantially in the summer of 2020 – during the peak of the pandemic. The current listing count is lower than even 2020 levels. With mortgage rates sky high, sellers are not incentivised to give up their current low rate mortgages and trade up to a newer home. How long does this phenomenon continue will be the key point to watch. 
• New listings were at 357K in Sep 2023. Pre-pandemic averages, during the peak summer selling season were closer to 450K. In stark contrast, new listings remain substantially lower as sellers continue to stay away from the market due to the above mentioned mortgage lock phenomenon. 
• The number of homes under contract (pending listings) was at 409K in Sep 2023. Once again, this was substantially lower (~100K to 200K) than 2021 and 2022. However, it is still higher than pre-pandemic September levels. The September count was 12% lower year over year. This decline was higher than the 11% decline in the previous month of August. As mortgage rates have soared close to 8%, it would not be a surprise to see a sharp fall in the pending listing count data for the rest of the year. 
• Days on market – the time typically spent by a home on the market – was 48 days in Sep. Once again this was higher than the boom years of 2021 and 2022, but still lower than pre-pandemic averages of about 60-65 days. Similar to the pending listings data, a gradual rise in the days on market number will be a key data point to watch. 
• Median listing price decreased m-o-m in September 2023 to $430K from $435K in August. On a y-o-y basis, median listing price is now higher than August 2022 by +0.4%.  

Overall the US housing market seemed to have formed a bottom in early 2023  (after a muted 2022), marked by still resilient buyer demand and lower supply of both new and existing homes. However, with sky high mortgage rates, residential real estate activity seems to be weakening again.

Realtor.com September 2023 Housing Market Report

30th Aug 2023

Key takeaway: The US Housing Market is a key component of the overall US economy and often a leading indicator of upcoming economic performance! Even though mortgage rates have risen by mammoth proportions, US Residential Housing seems to have found a bottom and even turned a corner. There are 2 aspects to be considered in this connection – First, that it is very positive for the economy overall. However, on the other hand, it can still keep pressure on inflation via second order effect through rental inflation!

• Active listing count was at 669K in Aug 2023. Firstly, this is still substantially below pre-pandemic levels (a range of 1,100K to 1,300K) – highlighting the continuing shortage of existing homes. Secondly, and more importantly, active listings are now even lower than 2022. Active listing count had fallen substantially in the summer of 2020 – during the peak of the pandemic. The current listing count is lower than even 2020 levels
• New listings were at 387K in Aug 2023. Pre-pandemic averages, during the peak summer selling season were closer to 500K. In stark contrast, new listings reman substantially lower as sellers remain away from the market. 
• The number of homes under contract (pending listings) was at 432K in Aug 2023. Once again, this was substantially lower (~100K to 200K) than 2021 and 2022. However, it is still higher than pre-pandemic July levels – highlighting still resilient demand. Buyers have been opportunistically taking advantage of drop in mortgage rates to execute purchases. The consensus view is that the US housing market has bottomed out. Existing Home Sales data has also shown a pick up since the start of the year.
• Days on market – the time typically spent by a home on the market – was 46 days in Aug. Once again this was higher than the boom years of 2021 and 2022, but still lower than pre-pandemic averages of about 55-60 days.
• Median listing price decreased m-o-m in August 2023 to $435K from $440K in July. On a y-o-y basis, median listing price is now higher than August 2022 by +0.9%. This data point also illustrates the bottoming of the real estate market that we have witnessed since the start of 2023. 

Overall the US housing market seems to have formed a bottom at a relatively low volume of activity, marked by still resilient buyer demand and lower supply of both new and existing homes.

Realtor.com August 2023 Housing Market Report

3rd Aug 2023

Key takeaway: The US Housing Market is a key component of the overall US economy and often a leading indicator of upcoming economic performance! Even though mortgage rates have risen by mammoth proportions, US Residential Housing seems to have found a bottom and even turned a corner. There are 2 aspects to be considered in this connection – First, that it is very positive for the economy overall. However, on the other hand, it can still keep pressure on inflation via second order effect through rental inflation!

• Active listing count was at 647K in Jul 2023. Firstly, this is still substantially below pre-pandemic levels (a range of 1,100K to 1,300K) – highlighting the continuing shortage of existing homes. Secondly, and more importantly, active listings are now even lower than 2022. 
• New listings were at 374K in Jul 2023. Pre-pandemic averages, during the peak summer selling season were closer to 500K-550K. In stark contrast, new listings reman substantially lower as sellers remain away from the market. 
• The number of homes under contract (pending listings) was at 439K in Jul 2023. Once again, this was substantially lower (~100K to 200K) than 2021 and 2022. However, it is still higher than pre-pandemic July levels – highlighting still resilient demand. Buyers have been opportunistically taking advantage of drop in mortgage rates to execute purchases. The consensus view is that the US housing market has bottomed out. Existing Home Sales data has also shown a pick up since the start of the year.
• Days on market – the time typically spent by a home on the market – was 45 days in Jul. Once again this was higher than the boom years of 2021 and 2022, but still lower than pre-pandemic averages of about 55-60 days.
• Median listing price decreased m-o-m in July 2023 to $440K from $445K in June. On a y-o-y basis, median listing price was lower by 0.9%– only the second month (after June 2023) in recent US housing market history as tracked by Realtor.com

Overall the US housing market seems to have formed a bottom at a relatively low volume of activity, marked by still resilient buyer demand and lower supply of both new and existing homes.

Realtor.com July 2023 Housing Market Report

29th Jun 2023

Key takeaway: The US Housing Market is a key component of the overall US economy and often a leading indicator of upcoming economic performance! Even though mortgage rates have risen by mammoth proportions, US Residential Housing seems to have found a bottom and even turned a corner. There are 2 aspects to be considered in this connection – First, that it is very positive for the economy overall. However, on the other hand, it can still keep pressure on inflation via second order effect through rental inflation!

• Active listing count was at 613K in Jun 2023. While that is higher than the previous 2 years, it is still substantially lower than pre-pandemic levels (a range of 1,100K to 1,300K – highlighting the continuing shortage of homes. If this trend continues for a few more months, active listing count in the US is likely to fall below even 2022 levels! This is very important to consider from the perspective of second order effects on rental inflation and consequently CPI
• New listings were at 396K in Jun 2023. Pre-pandemic averages, during the peak summer selling season were closer to 500K-600K. In stark contrast, new listing reman substantially lower as sellers remain away from the market. It is even more interesting to note that new listing are lower than even those seen in the summer of 2020! (remember Covid?)
• The number of homes under contract (pending listings) was at 453K in Jun 2023. Once again, this was substantially lower (~100K to 200K) than 2021 and 2022. However, it is still higher than pre-pandemic May levels – highlighting still resilient demand. Buyers have been opportunistically taking advantage of drop in mortgage rates to execute purchases. Moreover, pending listings have gradually been improving over the past 2-3 months which are leading participants to believe the US housing market has bottomed out. Existing Home Sales data has also shown a pick up since the start of the year.
• Days on market – the time typically spent by a home on the market – was 44 days in Jun. Once again this was higher than the boom years of 2021 and 2022, but still lower than pre-pandemic averages of about 54 days.
• Median listing price increased m-o-m in Jun 2023 to $445K from $441K in May. On a y-o-y basis though, median listing price was lower by 0.9%– a first in recent US housing market history as tracked by Realtor.com

Overall the US housing market seems to have formed a bottom at a relatively low volume of activity, marked by still resilient buyer demand and lower supply of both new and existing homes.

Realtor.com Jun 2023 Housing Market Report

1st Jun 2023

Key takeaway: The US Housing Market is a key component of the overall US economy and often a leading indicator of upcoming economic performance! Even though mortgage rates have risen by mammoth proportions, US Residential Housing seems to have found a bottom and even turned a corner. There are 2 aspects to be considered in this connection – First, that it is very positive for the economy overall. However, on the other hand, it can still keep pressure on inflation via second order effect through rental inflation!

• The story with US housing market inventory continued in May. Active listing count was at 582K in May 2023. While that is higher than the previous 2 years, it is still substantially lower than pre-pandemic levels (a range of 1,100K to 1,200K – highlighting the continuing shortage of homes. If this trend continues for a fe more months, active listing count in the US is likely to fall below even 2022 levels!
• New listings were at 406K in May 2023. Pre-pandemic averages, during the peak summer selling season were closer to 500K-600K. In stark contrast, new listing reman substantially lower as sellers remain away from the market.
• The number of homes under contract (pending listings) was at 460K in May 2023. Once again, this was substantially lower (~100K to 200K) than 2021 and 2022. However, it is still higher than pre-pandemic May levels – highlighting still resilient demand. Buyers have been opportunistically taking advantage of drop in mortgage rates to execute purchases. Moreover, pending listings have gradually been improving over the past 2-3 months which are leading participants to believe the US housing market has bottomed out
• Days on market – the time typically spent by a home on the market – was 43 days in May. Once again this was higher than the boom years of 2021 and 2022, but still lower than pre-pandemic averages of about 52 days.
• Median listing price increased 0.9% y-o-y in May 2023 to $441K. While this is still an increase on a y-o-y basis, it is down from the record $449K of June 2022. Assuming no m-o-m growth over 1H 2023, it is likely that the median listing price will record negative y-o-y growth by mid 2023 – a first in recent US housing market history

Overall the US housing market seems to have formed a bottom at a relatively low volume of activity, marked by still resilient buyer demand and lower supply of both new and existing homes.

Realtor.com May 2023 Housing Market Report

4th May 2023

Key takeaway: The US Housing Market is a key component of the overall US economy and often a leading indicator of upcoming economic performance! Even though mortgage rates have risen by mammoth proportions, US Residential Housing seems to have found a bottom and even turned a corner. There are 2 aspects to be considered in this connection – First, that it is very positive for the economy overall. However, on the other hand, it can still keep pressure on inflation via second order effect through rental inflation!

• Active listing count was at 564K in Apr 2023. While that is about 100K-200K higher than the previous 2 years, it is still substantially lower than pre-pandemic levels (a range of 900K to 1,200K – highlighting the continuing shortage of homes
• New listings were at 392K in Apr 2023. New listing continues to be roughly 100K below pre-pandemic averages.
• The number of homes under contract (pending listings) was at 431K in Apr 2023. Once again, while this was substantially lower (~100K to 150K) than 2021 and 2022, it was still fairly higher (~50K) than pre-pandemic Mar levels – highlighting still resilient demand. Buyers have been opportunistically taking advantage of drop in mortgage rates to execute purchases. Moreover, pending listings have gradually been improving over the past 2-3 months which are leading participants to believe the US housing market has bottomed out
• Days on market – the time typically spent by a home on the market – was 49 days in Apr. Once again this was higher than the boom years of 2021 and 2022 (40 days and 32 days), but still substantially lower than pre-pandemic averages of about 60 days.
• Median listing price increased 2.5% y-o-y in Apr 2023 to $430K. While this is still an increase on a y-o-y basis, it is down from the record $449K of June 2022. Assuming no m-o-m growth over 1H 2023, it is likely that the median listing price will record negative y-o-y growth by mid 2023 – a first in recent US housing market history

Overall the US housing market seems to have formed a bottom at a relatively low volume of activity, marked by still resilient buyer demand and lower supply of both new and existing homes.

Realtor.com Apr 2023 Housing Market Report

30th Mar 2023

Key takeaway:

• Active listing count was at 562K in Mar 2023. While that is about 100K-200K higher than the previous 2 years, it is still substantially lower than pre-pandemic levels (a range of 900K to 1,150K – highlighting the continuing shortage of homes
• New listings were at 349K in Mar 2023. These are roughly 100K below pre-pandemic averages.
• The number of homes under contract (pending listings) was at 396K in Mar 2023. Once again, while this was substantially lower (~100K to 150K) than 2021 and 2022, it was still fairly higher (~50K) than pre-pandemic Mar levels – highlighting still resilient demand. Buyers have been opportunistically taking advantage of drop in mortgage rates to execute purchases
• Days on market – the time typically spent by a home on the market – was 54 days in Mar. Once again this was higher than the boom years of 2021 and 2022 (48 days and 36 days), but still substantially lower than pre-pandemic averages of about 70 days.
• Median listing price increased 6.3% y-o-y in Mar 2023 to $424K. While this is still an increase on a y-o-y basis, it is down from the record $449K of June 2022. Assuming no m-o-m growth over 1H 2023, it is likely that the median listing price will record negative y-o-y growth by mid 2023 – a first in recent US housing market history

Overall the US housing market seems to have formed a bottom at a relatively low volume of activity, marked by still resilient buyer demand and lower supply of both new and existing homes.

Realtor.com Housing Market Report

2nd Mar 2023

Key takeaway:

• Active listing count was at 578K in Feb 2023. While that is about 100K-200K higher than the previous 2 years, it is still substantially lower than pre-pandemic levels (a range of 900K to 1,150K – highlighting the continuing shortage of homes
• New listings were at 312K in Feb 2023. These are roughly 100K below pre-pandemic averages.
• The number of homes under contract (pending listings) was at 371K in Feb 2023. Once again, while this was substantially lower (~100K to 150K) than 2021 and 2022, it was still fairly higher (~50K) than pre-pandemic Feb levels – highlighting still resilient demand. Buyers have been opportunistically taking advantage of drop in mortgage rates to execute purchases
• Days on market – the time typically spent by a home on the market – was 67 days in Feb. Once again this was higher than the boom years of 2021 and 2022 (65 days and 45 days), but still substantially lower than pre-pandemic averages of about 90 days.
• Median listing price increased 7.8% y-o-y in Feb 2023 to $415K. While this is still an increase on a y-o-y basis, it is down from the record $449K of June 2022. Assuming no m-o-m growth over 1H 2023, it is likely that the median listing price will record negative y-o-y growth by mid 2023 – a first in recent US housing market history

Realtor.com Housing Market Report