US Macro Updates

The One Stop Portal for US Macroeconomic Data. Simplified and Summarized! 

We simplify and summarize key data so that you don’t have to spend hours reading confusing and long media releases. Read key economic releases and major events here in under 2 minutes. And we will explain the key takeaway for you. Stay informed and form a robust view on macroeconomic matters to aid your successful investment decisions

Job Openings and Labour Turnover (JOLTS)

13th Mar 2026

Key takeaway: Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that job openings increased to 6.95 million in January, up from 6.55 million in December and above market expectations for around 6.7 million openings. Meanwhile, hires were little changed at around 5.3 million, while total separations also remained broadly unchanged at around 5.1 million during the month. Within separations, the number of workers voluntarily quitting their jobs declined slightly, indicating somewhat weaker worker confidence in the labour market. The Quits rate remained at around 2.0. After scaling down from the highs of 2021/22, job openings had mostly been flat around 7.0mn to 7.3mn from mid 2024 till late 2025. However, job openings have been coming down of late, especially since Q2 2025. JOLTS data for the months of July and August last year had hastened the urgency for rate cuts and supported the case for rate cuts. The Fed, after cutting at 3 consecutive meetings, has now paused its rate cutting cycle. However, the December weak JOLTS data release once again highlighted potential economic weakness and tepid growth in the labour market. The job openings to unemployed ratio, tracked by the Fed closely, has fallen to around 0.9 to 1.0 – which is marginally lower than the ratio right before the pandemic struck in March 2020. Taken together, the latest JOLTS survey suggests that labour demand improved modestly in January after the sharp decline recorded in December, although the overall level of job openings remains well below the highs seen during the post-pandemic labour market tightness.  

5th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of December fell sharply to 6.54mn. The print was significantly lower than the previous month’s reading of 6.93mn jobs and also lower than consensus expectations. After scaling down from the highs of 2021/22, job openings had mostly been flat around 7.0mn to 7.3mn from mid 2024 till late 2025. However, job openings have been coming down of late, especially since Q2 2025. JOLTS data for the months of July and August had hastened the urgency for rate cuts and supported the case for rate cuts. The Fed, after cutting at 3 consecutive meetings, has now paused its rate cutting cycle. However, the latest weak JOLTS data point is bound to spur talks of economic weakness and rate cuts once again. The job openings to unemployed ratio, tracked by the Fed closely, has fallen to around 0.9 to 1.0 – which is marginally lower than the ratio right before the pandemic struck in March 2020. The latest data point take this ratio further downwards. Total hires slightly higher at 5.29mn. Total separations also slightly higher at 5.25mn. The level of Quits flat at about 3.2mn. The widely tracked Quits rate held also flat at 2.0.  

7th Jan 2026

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of November fell to  7.1mn. This was the first clean read on the US job market since the government shutdown, though the data point is a little dated since it is for the month of November. After scaling down from the highs of 2021/22, job openings have mostly been flat for the past 18 months. While the latest data point is lower than previous month as well as consensus expectations, it is mostly within the range that it has been over the past 2 years (7.2mn to 7.7mn range). As we saw at the last FOMC meeting, the Fed now stands divided on at least the pace of rate cuts going forward, if not the direction. JOLTS data for the months of July and August had hastened the urgency for rate cuts and supported the case for the doves at the previous Fed meeting. However, in the press conference at the October meeting, Chair Powell dampened market expectations of the quantum and pace of rate cuts to some extent. Nonetheless the Fed decided to cut rates one more time in December but indicated a pause to the market to evaluate subsequent inflation and labour data. The job openings to unemployed ratio, tracked by the Fed closely, has fallen to around 0.9 to 1.0 – which is marginally lower than the ratio right before the pandemic struck in March 2020. Total hires mostly steady at 5.1mn. Total separations also steady at 5.1mn. The level of Quits rose to about 3.1mn. The widely tracked Quits rate held increased slightly from 1.9 to 2.0.  

9th Dec 2025

Key takeaway: (Delayed release due to govt shutdown) – The number of Job Openings on the last business day of October was mostly unchanged at 7.7mn. The BLS also release the September data which had not been released as per schedule due to the government shutdown in October. After scaling down from the highs of 2021/22, job openings have mostly been flat for the past 18 months. They have hovered in the 7.2mn to 7.7mn range. As we saw at the last FOMC meeting, the Fed now stands divided on at least the pace of rate cuts going forward, if not the direction. JOLTS data for the months of July and August had hastened the urgency for rate cuts and supported the case for the doves at the previous Fed meeting. However, since then, Chair Powell has dampened market expectations of the quantum and pace of rate cuts to some extent. The latest September and October data reinforces the view that the upcoming Fed meeting this week is likely to indicate a “hawkish cut of 25 bps”. The job openings to unemployed ratio, tracked by the Fed closely, has fallen to around 0.9 to 1.0 – which is marginally lower than the ratio right before the pandemic struck in March 2020. Total hires mostly steady at  5.12mn. Total separations also steady at 5.0mn. The level of Quits declined to about 2.9mn. The widely tracked Quits rate held declined slightly from 2.0 to 1.8.  

30th Sep 2025

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of August was at 7.23mn compared to 7.21mn the previous month. The print was also slightly higher than consensus expectations of 7.19mn. US job openings have generally been on a declining path since peaking in mid 2022. However, the pace of decline had stalled in the past 9-12 months and jobs have hovered around the 7.0 to 7.5mn range in the past year. As we saw at the last FOMC meeting, the Fed now stands divided on at least the pace of rate cuts going forward, if not the direction. The previous month’s JOLTS data had hastened the urgency for rate cuts and supported the case for the doves at the meeting. The latest increase in jobs for the month of August will pour some cold water on further rate cut expectations, although the beat is not significantly large. The job openings to unemployed ratio, tracked by the Fed closely, has fallen to around 0.9 to 1.0 – which is marginally lower than the ratio right before the pandemic struck in March 2020. Total hires decreased by approx. 120K to 5.12mn. Total separations decreased by about 100K to 5.11mn. The level of Quits reduced by approx. 70K to 3.09mn. The widely tracked Quits rate held declined slightly from 2.0 to 1.9.  

30th Sep 2025

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of July was at 7.2mn compared to 7.4mn the previous month. The print was also lower than consensus expectations of 7.4mn. US job openings had fallen to the lowest in March 2025 since September 2024. However, we then saw job openings increase for 2 months in a row in April and May. However, post that we have had 2 consecutive months of declines in jobs once again. While we had seen a few months of increases in job openings in the second half of 2024, the overall trend in job openings remains declining, though the decline has flattened since late 2024. Inflation remains a concern for the Fed. However, clearly the Fed now stands divided on at least the pace of rate cuts going forward. The latest JOLTS data will undoubtedly add to the rate cut urgency. If the NFP data is significantly lower in the upcoming Friday release, a 50 basis points cut in September might be on the cards as well. The job openings to unemployed ratio, tracked by the Fed closely, has fallen to around 0.9 to 1.0 – which is marginally lower than the ratio right before the pandemic struck in March 2020. Total hires increased by approx. 50K to 5.3mn. Total separations decreased by about 52K to 5.28mn. The level of Quits was mostly unchanged at 3.2mn. The widely tracked Quits rate held steady at 2.0.  

29th Jul 2025

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of June was at 7.4mn compared to 7.7mn the previous month. The print was also lower than consensus expectations of 7.51mn. This week is especially key for employment data in the US. This week is also Fed meeting week with market participants widely expecting the Fed to hold rates steady. 10 year yields began the day with a sharp drop of 9 basis points. US job openings had fallen to the lowest in March since September 2024. However, we then saw job openings increase for 2 months in a row in April and May. The latest month shows a scale back in jobs once again. While we had seen a few months of increases in job openings in the second half of 2024, the overall trend in job openings remains declining, though the decline has flattened since late 2024. Inflation remains a concern for the Fed. However, we have now seen softer indications from various members of the Fed that if the employment data comes in slightly weaker, the Fed stands ready to cut. Those indications will be widely watched in this week’s Fed meeting communications. The job openings to unemployed ratio, tracked by the Fed closely, has fallen to 0.9 – which is marginally lower than the ratio right before the pandemic struck in March 2020. Total hires decreased by approx. 260K to 5.2mn. Total separations decreased by about 140K to 5.06mn. The level of Quits decreased by 130K from 3.27mn to 3.14mn. The widely tracked Quits rate held steady at 2.0.  

1st Jul 2025

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of May was at 7.77mn compared to 7.40mn the previous month. The print was also higher than consensus expectations of 7.32mn. This week is especially key for employment data in the US. Earlier in the day, we saw a declined in the Employment sub-Index of the ISM Manufacturing PMI. We will also receive NFP data on Thursday along with ADP data as well as Initial and Continuing jobless claims. US job openings had fallen to the lowest in March since September 2024. However, we have now seen job openings increase for 2 months in a row. While we had seen a few months of increases in job openings in the second half of 2024, the overall trend in job openings remains declining, though the decline has flattened since late 2024. Inflation remains a concern for the Fed. However, we have now seen softer indications from various members of the Fed that if the employment data comes in slightly weaker, the Fed stands ready to cut. The increase in job openings over the last 2 months has the potential to pour cold water over those expectations. In this context one of the important points to note is that the job openings to unemployed ratio, tracked by the Fed closely, has fallen to 0.9 – which is marginally lower than the ratio right before the pandemic struck in March 2020. Total hires decreased by approx. 112K to 5.5mn. Total separations decreased by about 170K to 5.24mn. The level of Quits increased by 70K from 3.21mn to 3.29mn. The widely tracked Quits rate held steady at 2.1.  

3rd Jun 2025

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of April was at 7.39mn compared to 7.20mn the previous month. The print was also higher than consensus expectations of 7.10mn. Last month US job openings had fallen to the lowest since September 2024. The increase in the job openings data after tariff fears have receded a bit is not entirely surprising. While we had seen a few months of increases in job openings in the second half of 2024, the overall trend in job openings remains declining, though the decline has flattened since late 2024. Inflation remains a concern for the Fed. Though it is also key to note that CPI and PCE prints have been cooler than expected the last couple of months. The Fed remains on alert for resurgent inflation, but yet at the same time has its focus squarely on potential weakness in the jobs data as well. In this context one of the important points to note is that the job openings to unemployed ratio, tracked by the Fed closely, has fallen to 1.0 – which is marginally lower than the ratio right before the pandemic struck in March 2020. Total hires increased by approx. 169K to 5.57mn. Total separations increased by about 105K to 5.28mn. The level of Quits decreased by 150K from 3.34mn to 3.19mn. The widely tracked Quits rate held steady at 2.1.  

29th Apr 2025

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of March was at 7.192mn compared to 7.48mn the previous month. The print was lower than consensus expectations of 7.49mn. US job openings fell to the lowest since September 2024. While we had seen a few months of increases in job openings in the second half of 2024, the overall trend in job openings remains declining, though the decline has flattened since late 2024. The latest print was a relatively large move down and treasury yields fell sharply in response. The release also coincided with another report on depleting consumer confidence from the Confidence Board. Recent surveys have also shows that inflation expectations for the short term have shot up significantly. Recent PMI data have also indicating rising input prices. The Fed remains on alert once again for resurgent inflation, but yet at the same time has its focus squarely on potential weakness in the jobs data as well. In this context one of the important points to note is that the job openings to unemployed ratio, tracked by the Fed closely, has fallen to 1.015 – which is marginally lower than the ratio right before the pandemic struck in March 2020. Total hires increased by approx. 40K to 5.411mn. Total separations decreased by about 180K to 5.137mn. The level of Quits increased by 80K from 3.250mn to 3.332mn. The widely tracked Quits rate held steady at 2.1.  

1st Apr 2025

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of February was at 7.568mn compared to 7.76mn the previous month. The print was slightly lower than consensus expectations of 7.69mn. While the print was only marginally lower than expectations, it came on a day when we have broadly been receiving only bad news – ISM Manufacturing PMI and some Fed regional PMI reports. Treasury yields are sharply lower in response. The overall trend in job openings remains declining, though the decline has flattened since late 2024. The Fed remains on alert once again for resurgent inflation. Recent PMIs have been indicating a pick up in input prices. Rate cuts are on pause for now. Total hires increased by approx. 25K to 5.396mn. Total separations decreased by about 11K to 5.272mn. The level of Quits decreased by 60K from 3.256mn to 3.195mn. The widely tracked Quits rate held steady at 2.0.  

11th Mar 2025

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of January was at 7.7mn compared to 7.5mn the previous month. The print was higher than consensus expectations of 7.65mn. While the print was substantially higher than the previous month, it is also key to note that the previous month’s figure was revised substantially down. In any case, markets are clinging on to any piece of good news and this was perceived as one. The overall trend in job openings remains declining, though the decline has flattened since late 2024. This, and the latest higher inflation trends, have the Fed on alert once again for resurgent inflation and hence the rate cuts are on pause for now. Total hires increased by approx. 20K to 5.39mn. Total separations increased by about 170K to 5.25mn. The level of Quits increased by 171K from 3.09mn to 3.26mn. The widely tracked Quits rate increased from 1.9 to 2.1.  

4th Feb 2025

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of December was at 7.6mn compared to 8.15mn the previous month. This was a substantial decrease. The print was also lower than consensus expectations of 8.01mn. Declining job openings has been a huge factor on which the Fed has relied last year to evidence a cooling labour market. JOLTS declined from a high of around 12mn job openings in mid 2022 to around 7.3mn job openings towards the end of 2024. However, labour data started posting improvements in the final quarter of 2024. The unemployment rate plateaued. Job openings posted consecutive increases in October and November. This sharp spike of job openings and some firming up again of inflation indicators put inflation concerns once again back on the minds of market participants and the Fed. This made the Fed pause on its rate cutting cycle in January. The sharp fall today is hence noteworthy.  The 10 year yield was sharply down in immediate response. Total hires increased by approx. 89K to 5.46mn. Total separations decreased by about 38K to 5.27mn. The level of Quits increased by 67K from 3.13mn to 3.19mn. The widely tracked Quits rate remained steady at 2.0.  

7th Jan 2025

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of November was at 8.1mn compared to 7.83mn the previous month. The print was also higher than consensus expectations of 7.73mn. Declining job openings has been a huge factor on which the Fed has relied last year to evidence a cooling labour market. JOLTS declined from a high of around 12mn job openings in mid 2022 to around 7.5mn job openings towards the end of 2024. This sharp spike of job openings puts inflation concerns back on the minds of market participants and probably the Fed. While it might be too early to read into this, it is worth noting that job openings have risen for 2 months in a row and the quantum of increase has been substantial as well. The increase in job openings also came on a day that showed a large spike in ISM Services Price Index as well. Similar to the previous month though, total hires fell by approx. 150K jobs. Total separations also decreased by about 180K from the previous month. The level of Quits decreased by 218K from 3.3mn to 3.1mn. The widely tracked Quits rate decreased from 2.1 to 1.9.  

3rd Dec 2024

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of October was at 7.74mn compared to 7.37mn the previous month. The print was also higher than consensus expectations of 7.51mn. Even though the headline number beat expectations and indicated job openings rose substantially, the report was a mixed bag overall. Total hires fell by almost 300K jobs. Total separations also increased by about 60K from the previous month. On the other hand while total layoffs fell, the level of Quits increased by 228K from 3.1mn to 3.3mn. The widely tracked Quits rate increased from 1.9 to 2.1. Barring this one month data, the trend of job openings remains downward. The key, widely watched ratio of job openings to number of unemployed also continues its gradual slide down and currently sits at approx. 1.1x – lower than the pre-pandemic average level. The Fed has been looking at the JOLTS data very closely and taking significant comfort from the downward trend in job openings as an indication of cooling labour demand.   

29th Oct 2024

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of September was at 7.4mn compared to 7.9mn the previous month. The print was also lower than consensus expectations of 7.98mn. Yields moved a bit lower in immediate response to the weak print. On the balance, JOLTS data continues to show the gradual slide down in number of job openings. With inflation coming down and concerns building up about the health of the labour market, the Fed delivered a jumbo rate cut of 50 bps mid-September. However, since then we have had a stronger than expected NFP print and a stronger than expected JOLTS print last month. Hence, the latest weak print will offset the doubts raised by the previous month’s strong print to some extent. The key, widely watched ratio of job openings to number of unemployed also continues its gradual slide down and currently sits at approx. 1.1x – lower than the pre-pandemic average level. The Fed has been looking at the JOLTS data very closely and taking significant comfort from the downward trend in job openings as an indication of cooling labour demand. The total number of hires was mostly unchanged at 5.5mn. Separations were also flat at 5.2mn. Similarly, within separations, the widely tracked Quits rate was at 3.0mn (the quits rate was at approx. 1.9%). The trend remains downward and the Quits rate which stood at an elevated 3.0% in early 2022 is now back down to ~2% and quite in line with pre-pandemic levels.   

1st Oct 2024

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of August was at 8.0mn compared to 7.7mn the previous month. The print was also higher than consensus expectations of 7.64mn. On the balance, JOLTS data continues to show the gradual slide down in number of job openings. However, the latest month’s data point was higher and the previous month’s number was revised higher up as well. Attention has now squarely shifted to the health and prospects of the labour market. Though NFP reports and the unemployment data would be more market moving going forward than the JOLTS data. The key, widely watched ratio of job openings to number of unemployed also continues its gradual slide down and currently sits at approx. 1.1x – lower than the pre-pandemic average level. The Fed has been looking at the JOLTS data very closely and taking significant comfort from the downward trend in job openings as an indication of cooling labour demand. In the last couple of job data prints, the unemployment level has increased substantially and the attention has now shifted towards the weakening labour market compared to the inflation focus of the past 2 years. The total number of hires was mostly unchanged at 5.4mn. Separations increased from 5.3mn to 5.6mn. Similarly, within separations, the widely tracked Quits rate was at 3.0mn – compared to 3.2mn in the previous month  (the quits rate was at approx. 1.9%). The trend remains downward and the Quits rate which stood at an elevated 3.0% in early 2022 is now back down to ~2% and quite in line with pre-pandemic levels.   

  • Job Openings as of the last day of Aug 2024 increased to 8.0mn (expectations 7.7mn)

4th Sep 2024

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of July was slightly lower at 7.7mn compared to the previous month. The print was a bit lower than consensus expectations of 8.09mn. On the balance, JOLTS data continues to show the gradual slide down in number of job openings. The key, widely watched ratio of job openings to number of unemployed also continues its gradual slide down and currently sits at 1.08x – lower than the pre-pandemic average level. The Fed has been looking at the JOLTS data very closely and taking significant comfort from the downward trend in job openings as an indication of cooling labour demand. In the last couple of job data prints, the unemployment level has increased substantially and the attention is now shifting towards the weakening labour market compared to the inflation focus of the past 2 years. The total number of hires increased from 5.2mn to 5.5mn. Separations increased from 5.0mn to 5.4mn. Similarly, within separations, the widely tracked Quits rate was mostly unchanged at 3.2mn  (the quits rate remained approximately the same at 2.1%). The trend remains downward and the Quits rate which stood at an elevated 3.0% in early 2022 is now back down to 2.1% and quite in line with pre-pandemic levels.   

  • Job Openings as of the last day of Jul 2024 decreased to 7.7mn (expectations 8.1mn)

30th Jul 2024

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of June was mostly unchanged at 8.2mn. The print was a bit higher than consensus expectations of 8.0mn. On the balance, JOLTS data continues to show the gradual slide down in number of job openings. The key, widely watched ratio of job openings to number of unemployed also continues its gradual slide down and currently sits at 1.26x. The Fed has been looking at the JOLTS data very closely and taking significant comfort from the downward trend in job openings as an indication of cooling labour demand. However, the progress on inflation reduction has been less than desirable in the eyes of the Fed. The last few months of softer inflation prints have once again revived the soft landing thesis. The total number of hires fell from 5.7mn to 5.3mn. Separations fell from 5.4mn to 5.1mn. Similarly, within separations, the widely tracked Quits rate was mostly unchanged at 3.2mn  (the quits rate remained approximately the same at 2.2%). The trend remains downward and the Quits rate which stood at an elevated 3.0% in early 2022 is now back down to 2.2% and quite in line with pre-pandemic levels.   

  • Job Openings as of the last day of Jun 2024 increased to 8.2mn (expectations 8.0mn)

2nd Jul 2024

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of May was slightly higher at 8.14mn compared to 7.91mn in April. The print was also a bit higher than consensus expectations of 7.96mn. However, the increase also needs to be viewed in the light of the fact that the April figure was revised down from 8.505mn to 7.91mn. On the balance, JOLTS data continues to show the gradual slide down in number of job openings. The key, widely watched ratio of job openings to number of unemployed also continues its gradual slide down and currently sits at 1.26x. The Fed has been looking at the JOLTS data very closely and taking significant comfort from the downward trend in job openings as an indication of cooling labour demand. However, the progress on inflation reduction has been less than desirable in the eyes of the Fed. The total number of hires increased  from 5.6mn to 5.7mn. Separations also increased from 5.3mn to 5.4mn. Similarly, within separations, the widely tracked Quits rate was mostly unchanged at 3.4mn  (the quits rate remained approximately the same at 2.2%). The trend remains downward and the Quits rate which stood at an elevated 3.0% in early 2022 is now back down to 2.2% and quite in line with pre-pandemic levels.   

  • Job Openings as of the last day of May 2024 increased to 8.14mn (expectations 7.96mn)

4th Jun 2024

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of April was a fair bit lower at 8.1mn compared to 8.35mn in March. The print was also a bit lower than consensus expectations of 8.37mn. Also, the March figure was itself revised down from 8.5mn to 8.355mn. The Fed looks at the JOLTS data very closely and takes significant comfort from the downward trend in job openings as an indication of cooling labour demand. In general, job openings are now sharply down from the ~12mn peak of May 2022. However, we should also not lose sight of the fact that even though job opening have come down substantially in the past 18-24 months, they still remain higher compared to pre-pandemic levels, although not substantially so. The total number of hires increased marginally from 5.6mn to 5.64mn. Separations also increased from 5.33mn to 5.37mn. Similarly, within separations, the widely tracked Quits rate also increased from 3.4mn to 3.5mn  (the quits rate remained approximately the same at 2.2%). The trend remains downward and the Quits rate which stood at an elevated 3.0% in early 2022 is now back down to 2.2% and quite in line with pre-pandemic levels.   

  • Job Openings as of the last day of Apr 2024 declined to 8.05mn (expectations 8.37mn)

1st May 2024

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of March was a fair bit lower at 8.5mn compared to 8.8mn in February. The print was also a bit lower than consensus expectations. The Fed looks at the JOLTS data very closely and takes significant comfort from the downward trend in job openings as an indication of cooling labour demand. However, we should also not lose sight of the fact that even though job opening have come down substantially in the past 18-24 months, they still remain higher compared to pre-pandemic levels. The total number of hires declined from 5.8mn to 5.5mn. Separations also fell from 5.4mn to 5.2mn. Similarly, within separations, the widely tracked Quits rate also fell from 3.5mn to 3.3mn  (from 2.2% to 2.1%). This trend remains downward and the Quits rate which stood at an elevated 3.0% in early 2022 is now back down to 2.1% and quite in line with pre-pandemic levels.   

  • Job Openings as of the last day of Mar 2024 declined to 8.5mn (expectations 8.7mn)

2nd Apr 2024

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of February were little changed at 8.8mn. Last month’s figure was revised down marginally. The print was also mostly in line with consensus expectations. Similar to the headline, there wasn’t much change in the underlying detail in the report either. The total number of hires were little changed at 5.8 mn. Separations fell a bit more on a m-o-m basis from 5.4mn to 5.6mn. Similarly, within separations, the widely tracked Quits rate was also steady at 3.48 mn or 2.2%. The trend remains downward and the Quits rate which stood at an elevated 3.0% in early 2022 is now back down to 2.2% and quite in line with pre-pandemic levels. The Quits rate has remained at 2.2% for 4 months in a row. 10 and 30 year yields have been spiking up in the last few days in response to overall strong economic data and stubbornly high inflation. Finally, it is key to once again emphasize that the level of job openings is significantly lower than the late 2021 highs and even with a no-change data point, the Fed would take comfort from the release. However a continuing tight labour market remains concerning from an inflation standpoint.  

6th Mar 2024

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of January were little changed at 8.9mn. The print was also mostly in line with consensus expectations. Similar to the headline, there wasn’t much change in the underlying detail in the report either. The total number of hires and separations were little changed at 5.7 mn and 5.3 mn. Similarly, within separations, the widely tracked Quits rate was also steady at 3.4 mn. However, the trend remains downward and the Quits rate which stood at an elevated 3.0% in early 2022 is now back down to 2.1% and quite in line with pre-pandemic levels. 10 and 30 year yields were broadly down and continuing the trend seen in recent weeks. Finally, it is key to once again emphasize that the level of job openings is significantly lower than the late 2021 highs and even with a no-change data point, the Fed would take comfort from the release. However a continuing tight labour market remains concerning from an inflation standpoint.  

30th Jan 2024

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of December were little changed at 9.0mn. However, more importantly, the print was higher than consensus expectations of 8.75mn. Yields mostly spiked in immediate response with the 10 year moving 4 basis points from 4.04% to 4.08%. Also, it is key to once again emphasize that the level of job openings is significantly lower than the late 2021 highs and even with a no-change data point, the Fed would take comfort from the release. However a continuing tight labour market remains concerning from an inflation standpoint. The number of hires was unchanged at 5.6mn. Similarly total quits was also unchanged at 3.4mn. This level of quits at around 3.4 mn is mostly in line with the level right before the pandemic struck in 1Q 2020.  

3rd Jan 2024

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of November were little changed at 8.8mn. The print was also mostly in line with expectations. It is key to once again emphasize though that the level of job openings is significantly lower than the late 2021 highs and even with a no-change data point, the Fed would take comfort from the release. The number of hires decreased to 5.5mn. Similarly total quits edged down to 3.5mn. This level of quits at around 3.5 mn is mostly in line with the level right before the pandemic struck in 1Q 2020.  

5th Dec 2023

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of October were at 8.7mn, down sharply from the previous month. The figure was also much lower than consensus expectations of 9.30mn, After just a couple of months of relatively higher prints, we are back to receding job opening data. Once again this is welcome news for the Fed. Markets immediately responded to the lower than expected print by dragging down the 10 year and the 2 year yield. Markets are now firmly expecting a rate cut by the first half of 2024 and only time will tell if they have it correct this time vis a vis what the Fed has been saying about rate cuts all along. The number of hires was little changed at 5.9mn. Similarly total quits was little changed at 3.6mn. The key point to note though is that the level of quits at 3.6 mn is mostly in line with the level right before the pandemic struck in 1Q 2020.  

1st Nov 2023

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of September was relatively unchanged from the previous month at 9.6mn. However, the figure was higher than consensus expectations of 9.25mn, though not by a very large margin. After a few months of continuous declines in job openings (which was welcome news for the Fed), August had sprung an unexpected surprise on the markets. And in the same vein, the September data still points to elevated job openings. The key message continues to be that the labour market still remain tight and employers are looking for workers. The number of hires was little changed at 5.9mn. Similarly total quits was little changed at 3.7mn.  

  • Job Openings as of the last day of Sep 2023 was relatively unchanged at 9.6mn (expectations 9.25mn)
  • FRED Jolts

3rd Oct 2023

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of August increased sharply to 9.6mn from a upwardly revised 8.92mn in July. The figure was also significantly higher than consensus expectations of 8.8mn. After a few months of continuous declines in job openings (which was welcome news for the Fed), August sprung an unexpected surprise on the markets. The number screams out the message that the labour market still remain tight and employers are looking for workers. As soon as the report hit the wires, bond yields were sharply up. The number of hires was little changed at 5.9mn. Similarly total quits was little changed at 3.6mn.  

  • Job Openings as of the last day of August 2023 increased substantially to 9.6mn (expectations 8.8mn)
  • FRED Jolts

29th Aug 2023

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of July decreased sharply to 8.8mn from a downwardly revised 9.165mn in June. The figure was also significantly lower than consensus expectations. This was very welcome news from the Fed’s perspective and the market cheered it immediately. Equity markets were sharply up in immediate reaction and the 2 year bond yield fell a whopping 13 basis points in immediate reaction. The ratio of job openings to number of unemployed has come down from its 2022 highs of around 2.0x to approximately 1.45x now. However, even with the latest positive data, it is still indicative of a tight labour market. The other noteworthy point in this data report was the sharp drop in Quits from 3.8mn in June to 3.5mn in July. This is perceived to indicate that people might be less likely to quit in anticipation of a new job with a higher pay.  

  • Job Openings as of the last day of July 2023 decreased substantially to 8.827mn (expectations 9.4650mn)
  • FRED Jolts

1st Aug 2023

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of Jun marginally decreased to 9.582mn from 9.616mn in May. The figure was also mostly in line with expectations. Even though marginally lower, the number is high enough to still worry the Fed. The ratio of job openings to number of unemployed has come down from its 2022 highs of around 2.0x to approximately 1.6x now. But it is still indicative of a tight labour market. The other noteworthy point in this data report was the sharp drop in Quits from 4.1mn in May to 3.8mn in June. This is perceived to indicate that people might be less likely to quit in anticipation of a new job with a higher pay.  

  • Job Openings as of the last day of June 2023 decreased marginally to 9.582mn (expectations 9.610mn)
  • FRED Jolts

6th Jul 2023

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of May decreased to 9.8mn from 10.3mn in Apr. Also notably, the figure was lower than consensus expectations of 9.94mn. Other data on the number of hires, separations and layoffs were little changed from April. In summary, while the JOLTS headline number might have moved down a bit, it remains high by historical standards and continues to indicate a tight labor market.  

 

31st May 2023

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of April increased to 10.1mn from 9.7mn in Mar. This is a fairly important development. The Fed has pinned all its hopes of quelling inflation on weakening the labour market tightness without creating a significant recession. Job Openings in the US had fallen now for 3 months in a row from Jan through Mar. Which had given the Fed significant comfort. However, job openings increased back again in April. The latest number was also higher than the consensus forecast of ~9.8mn. The higher Jolts print now brings attention even more firmly on the May NFP data to be released today. If NFP prints higher than consensus, there will be a good case for another 25 basis points hike at the June Fed meeting. 

2nd May 2023

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of Mar decreased to 9.6mn from 9.9mn in Feb. Job Openings in the US have fallen now for 3 months in a row – which the Fed will be quite pleased about. The latest number was also lower than the consensus forecast of ~9.8mn. The Quits rate – which provides an indication of the willingness and ability of workers to leave jobs –  remained fairly unchanged at around 3.9mn. The JOLTS data is being closely monitored by market participants as another indicator (apart from the NFP payroll data) of labour market tightness. The Fed also keeps a close eye on this data point. Job openings have come off significantly from the late 2021 / early 2022 highs of close to 12mn. Yet, even at 9.6mn, job openings are significantly above pre-pandemic levels.   

7th Apr 2023

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of Feb decreased to 9.9mn from 10.5mn in Jan. The number was substantially below the consensus forecast of ~10.4mn. The JOLTS data is being closely monitored by market participants as another indicator (apart from the NFP payroll data) of labour market tightness. The Fed also keeps a close eye on this data point. Job openings have come off significantly from the late 2021 / early 2022 highs of close to 12mn. Yet, even at 9.9mn, job openings are significantly above pre-pandemic levels.   

The Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (“JOLTS”) is a monthly survey conducted by the Bureau of Labour Statistics that provides data on job openings, hires and separations. The data primarily serves as a demand side indicator of labour shortage in the economy. The availability of unfilled jobs is an important measure of tightness of job markets and supplements the information received through the BLS Non-Farm Payroll data. Data for this survey of approximately 21,000 business establishments is collected through the Atlanta JOLTS Data Collection Center. The survey covers all non-agricultural industries in the public and private sectors in the US.

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