US Macro Updates

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of September was relatively unchanged from the previous month at 9.6mn. However, the figure was higher than consensus expectations of 9.25mn, though not by a very large margin. After a few months of continuous declines in job openings (which was welcome news for the Fed), August had sprung an unexpected surprise on the markets. And in the same vein, the September data still points to elevated job openings. The key message continues to be that the labour market still remain tight and employers are looking for workers. The number of hires was little changed at 5.9mn. Similarly total quits was little changed at 3.7mn.  

• Job Openings as of the last day of Sep 2023 was relatively unchanged at 9.6mn (expectations 9.25mn)
• FRED Jolts

3rd Oct 2023

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of August increased sharply to 9.6mn from a upwardly revised 8.92mn in July. The figure was also significantly higher than consensus expectations of 8.8mn. After a few months of continuous declines in job openings (which was welcome news for the Fed), August sprung an unexpected surprise on the markets. The number screams out the message that the labour market still remain tight and employers are looking for workers. As soon as the report hit the wires, bond yields were sharply up. The number of hires was little changed at 5.9mn. Similarly total quits was little changed at 3.6mn.  

• Job Openings as of the last day of August 2023 increased substantially to 9.6mn (expectations 8.8mn)
• FRED Jolts

29th Aug 2023

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of July decreased sharply to 8.8mn from a downwardly revised 9.165mn in June. The figure was also significantly lower than consensus expectations. This was very welcome news from the Fed’s perspective and the market cheered it immediately. Equity markets were sharply up in immediate reaction and the 2 year bond yield fell a whopping 13 basis points in immediate reaction. The ratio of job openings to number of unemployed has come down from its 2022 highs of around 2.0x to approximately 1.45x now. However, even with the latest positive data, it is still indicative of a tight labour market. The other noteworthy point in this data report was the sharp drop in Quits from 3.8mn in June to 3.5mn in July. This is perceived to indicate that people might be less likely to quit in anticipation of a new job with a higher pay.  

• Job Openings as of the last day of July 2023 decreased substantially to 8.827mn (expectations 9.4650mn)
• FRED Jolts

1st Aug 2023

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of Jun marginally decreased to 9.582mn from 9.616mn in May. The figure was also mostly in line with expectations. Even though marginally lower, the number is high enough to still worry the Fed. The ratio of job openings to number of unemployed has come down from its 2022 highs of around 2.0x to approximately 1.6x now. But it is still indicative of a tight labour market. The other noteworthy point in this data report was the sharp drop in Quits from 4.1mn in May to 3.8mn in June. This is perceived to indicate that people might be less likely to quit in anticipation of a new job with a higher pay.  

• Job Openings as of the last day of June 2023 decreased marginally to 9.582mn (expectations 9.610mn)
• FRED Jolts

6th Jul 2023

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of May decreased to 9.8mn from 10.3mn in Apr. Also notably, the figure was lower than consensus expectations of 9.94mn. Other data on the number of hires, separations and layoffs were little changed from April. In summary, while the JOLTS headline number might have moved down a bit, it remains high by historical standards and continues to indicate a tight labor market.  

• Job Openings as of the last day of May 2023 decreased to 9.8mn (expectations 9.94mn)
• FRED Jolts

31st May 2023

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of April increased to 10.1mn from 9.7mn in Mar. This is a fairly important development. The Fed has pinned all its hopes of quelling inflation on weakening the labour market tightness without creating a significant recession. Job Openings in the US had fallen now for 3 months in a row from Jan through Mar. Which had given the Fed significant comfort. However, job openings increased back again in April. The latest number was also higher than the consensus forecast of ~9.8mn. The higher Jolts print now brings attention even more firmly on the May NFP data to be released today. If NFP prints higher than consensus, there will be a good case for another 25 basis points hike at the June Fed meeting. 

• Job Openings as of the last day of Apr 2023 increased to 10.1mn (expectations 9.77mn)
• FRED Jolts

2nd May 2023

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of Mar decreased to 9.6mn from 9.9mn in Feb. Job Openings in the US have fallen now for 3 months in a row – which the Fed will be quite pleased about. The latest number was also lower than the consensus forecast of ~9.8mn. The Quits rate – which provides an indication of the willingness and ability of workers to leave jobs –  remained fairly unchanged at around 3.9mn. The JOLTS data is being closely monitored by market participants as another indicator (apart from the NFP payroll data) of labour market tightness. The Fed also keeps a close eye on this data point. Job openings have come off significantly from the late 2021 / early 2022 highs of close to 12mn. Yet, even at 9.6mn, job openings are significantly above pre-pandemic levels.   

• Job Openings as of the last day of Mar 2023 decreased to 9.59mn (expectations 9.76mn)
• FRED Jolts

7th Apr 2023

Key takeaway: The number of Job Openings on the last business day of Feb decreased to 9.9mn from 10.5mn in Jan. The number was substantially below the consensus forecast of ~10.4mn. The JOLTS data is being closely monitored by market participants as another indicator (apart from the NFP payroll data) of labour market tightness. The Fed also keeps a close eye on this data point. Job openings have come off significantly from the late 2021 / early 2022 highs of close to 12mn. Yet, even at 9.9mn, job openings are significantly above pre-pandemic levels.   

• Job Openings as of the last day of Feb 2023 decreased to 9.93mn (expectations 10.4mn)
• FRED Jolts