Australia Macro Updates

Key takeaway: The ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator for June 2026, released 4th August, delivered a fourth consecutive monthly gain and came in well ahead of expectations — a result that, taken alongside the June labour force data, paints a more resilient consumer picture than the April shock had suggested. Household spending rose 0.8% in seasonally adjusted terms to A$81.3 billion, handily beating the 0.2% consensus forecast, with the annual pace of spending growth picking up to 6.0% — a three-month high — and the full June quarter recording a 0.7% rise in real volume terms. Discretionary spending drove the result for a second consecutive month, rising 1.2%, with transport and recreation and culture the key contributors — new vehicle sales were the standout, lifting transport spending 3.0%, while EV sales continued to gain market share and air travel returned to pre-conflict levels as disruptions from the Middle East escalation normalised. Fuel expenditure eased further from the March peak as global oil prices declined and the temporary fuel excise reduction continued to pass through to households, with experimental ABS data showing fuel purchase volumes actually rising 7.8% in June as prices fell 10.9% — a price-volume dynamic that flatters the nominal spending read somewhat, since cheaper fuel is lifting volumes while its contribution to the dollar-value aggregate is diminishing. Non-discretionary spending was softer, with food and groceries essentially flat after three months of elevated readings, consistent with the unwinding of conflict-driven pantry stocking that had inflated earlier prints. The June result provides the RBA with a modestly more constructive household consumption read heading into its August board meeting, though with trimmed mean CPI still running at 3.6% annually and unemployment having risen to 4.4%, the question of whether real spending momentum can be sustained without further policy support remains the central challenge for the second half of 2026.

• Household Consumption increased 0.8% m-o-m in Jun 2026 (Expected NA)

25th Jun 2026

Key takeaway: Australia’s Monthly Household Spending Indicator, released by the ABS on 25 June 2026, showed household spending rose 1.3% in May, rebounding from a 1.1% fall in April and following a 1.7% rise in March. On an annual basis, spending was up 5.5% compared with May 2025, accelerating from 5.1% in April. All nine spending categories increased in seasonally adjusted terms. Transport spending rose 1.4%, reversing April’s 4.7% drop, as travel-related refunds normalized after Middle East conflict-related flight cancellations had distorted the prior month. Food spending rose 1.1%, also reversing an April decline driven by higher grocery prices, while clothing and footwear spending picked up on mid-season, stocktake, and end-of-financial-year discounting.

• Household Consumption increased 1.3% m-o-m in May 2026 (Expected NA)

28th May 2026

Key takeaway: The ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator for April 2026, released on May 28, showed a sharp reversal from the conflict-driven surge in March, with the headline print coming in well below expectations. Household spending fell 1.1% in April to A$79.42 billion in seasonally adjusted current price terms — more than double the 0.4% dip analysts had pencilled in, following a 1.6% jump in March that had been heavily inflated by panic-buying of fuel and food ahead of the Middle East conflict’s escalation. Air transport was the largest single contributor to the decline, as households scaled back travel and airlines cancelled routes, while unwinding of food hoarding that had boosted non-discretionary spending in March also weighed on the April print. In current price terms, six of the nine spending categories recorded decreases, with services falling 1.9% and goods down 0.4%, while both discretionary and non-discretionary spending fell — the latter dropping 1.7%, an unusually large move for what is typically the more stable half of the spending basket. Despite the monthly pullback, spending remained 4.9% above April 2025 in through-the-year terms, suggesting that while the April read reflects a mechanical unwind of March distortions rather than a genuine deterioration in consumer conditions, the combination of rising unemployment, elevated energy costs and still-high mortgage rates means the underlying spending impulse is considerably more fragile than the annual comparison implies.

• Household Consumption decreased 1.1% m-o-m in Apr 2026 (Expected -0.4%)

5th May 2026
Key takeaway: The ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator for March 2026, released on May 5, showed a sharp acceleration driven almost entirely by the Iran war energy shock. Household spending rose 1.6% in March on a seasonally adjusted, current price basis — the strongest monthly gain since mid-2025 and well above the 0.3% increases recorded in both January and February — with spending up 6.3% compared to March 2025. The entire surge was driven by a 5.1% rise in transport costs as fuel prices spiked sharply in response to the Middle East conflict, with prices peaking at the end of March and households making smaller, more frequent trips to the petrol station. Strength in public transport also contributed, likely reflecting some households switching away from private vehicles in response to rising fuel costs. Crucially, however, the nominal jump masked a real consumption decline — an experimental ABS estimate using monthly CPI data suggests that volumes of fuel purchased by households actually fell 1.3% in March, driven by the 32.8% spike in monthly fuel prices. Discretionary spending rose 0.6%, led by goods for recreation and culture, clothing and footwear, and other services, while services spending edged up just 0.1%. The March result underscores a concerning dynamic for the RBA — headline spending figures are inflated by a war-driven price shock, while underlying real consumption volumes are being squeezed, complicating the path for monetary policy.  

• Household Consumption increased 1.6% m-o-m in Mar 2026 (Expected NA)

7th Apr 2026

Key takeaway: The ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator for February 2026, released today (April 7), showed a steady continuation of the modest recovery seen in January. Household spending rose 0.3% in February on a seasonally adjusted, current price basis — matching the 0.3% gain in January and following the 0.5% fall in December — with spending 4.6% higher than February 2025. The headline gain was driven by discretionary activity, with the ABS noting that discretionary spending rose 0.5% in February, driven by recreational and cultural activities including concerts and musicals, as well as higher spending on air travel and accommodation services, with some of the rise in concerts reflecting advance ticket purchases for future performances. On the essentials side, food spending rose 1.0%, further contributing to overall household expenditure. Looking at the category breakdown from the ABS data, recreation and culture (+1.1%) and food (+1.0%) were the strongest contributors, while clothing and footwear (-2.6%), furnishings and household equipment (-2.1%), and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (-0.5%) weighed on the result. Overall, the February print reinforces a picture of cautious but steady consumer spending — consistent with households navigating persistent cost-of-living pressures, elevated interest rates and energy costs, but still willing to selectively spend on leisure and essential items.  

• Household Consumption increased 0.3% m-o-m in Feb 2026 (Expected NA)

5th Mar 2026

Key takeaway: Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that household spending increased modestly in January, rising 0.3% month-over-month following a 0.4% decline in December. In level terms, total household spending was estimated at around A$78.9 billion during the month. The increase reflected a 1.0% rise in spending on services, while spending on goods declined by around 0.3%, with weaker purchases of motor vehicles contributing to the decline. Meanwhile, essential spending increased by around 0.8%, while discretionary spending rose only modestly, indicating that households continue to prioritise essential items amid ongoing cost-of-living pressures. The latest data suggests that household spending growth remained relatively subdued at the start of 2026, pointing to continued caution among Australian consumers. With the recent uptick in inflation and the unexpected fall in the unemployment rate, the RBA became one of the first central banks amongst the developed economies to raise rates in 2026. It raised its cash rate from 3.6% to 3.85% at its February meeting. Strong consumer spending data has supported the RBA’s decision to raise policy rates and be on the watch for further inflationary pressures. Household spending prints for the past 2 months of December and January have been relatively soft. The RBA will be watching these household consumption trends closely.  

• Household Consumption increased 0.3% m-o-m in Jan 2026 (Expected NA)

9th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: Household spending declined 0.4% m-o-m and increased 5.0% y-o-y in December on a current price, seasonally adjusted basis. The Household spending data release has substituted the erstwhile Retail Sales release. Enhancements to the Monthly Household Spending Indicator have enabled the Australian Bureau of Statistics to cease the long-standing Retail Trade publication on 31 July 2025. These enhancements allow for broader and more timely insights into household consumption patterns. Retail sales data has generally been soft throughout 2025. With the exception of the month of February, Retail sales growth numbers had been fairly soft in the first half of the year. Housing spending meanwhile, has generally been on an upward trend since the 4th quarter of 2024. The increase is household spending is being seen across categories – goods and services as well as discretionary and non-discretionary spending. With inflation within the RBA’s target range, the RBA initiated its first rate cut in February and then followed up with another 25 bps rate cut in May and another 25 bps in August. However, with the recent uptick in inflation and the unexpected fall in the unemployment rate, the RBA became one of the first central banks amongst the developed economies to raise rates in 2026. It raised its cash rate from 3.6% to 3.85% at its February meeting. Strong consumer spending data has supported the RBA’s decision to raise policy rates and be on the watch for further inflationary pressures. The latest December monthly data though shows that household spending was relatively soft and also lower than consensus expectations. The data point tends to be volatile and hence too much emphasis cannot be placed on one weak data point. Nonetheless, the RBA will be watching household consumption trends closely.  

• Household Consumption decreased 0.4% m-o-m in Dec 2025 (Expected NA)

12th Jan 2026

Key takeaway: Household spending rose a healthy 1.0% m-o-m and 6.3% y-o-y in November on a current price, seasonally adjusted basis. The Household spending data release has substituted the erstwhile Retail Sales release. Enhancements to the Monthly Household Spending Indicator have enabled the Australian Bureau of Statistics to cease the long-standing Retail Trade publication on 31 July 2025. These enhancements allow for broader and more timely insights into household consumption patterns. Retail sales data has generally been soft throughout 2025. With the exception of the month of February, Retail sales growth numbers had been fairly soft in the first half of the year. Housing spending meanwhile, has generally been on an upward trend since the 4th quarter of 2024. The increase is household spending is being seen across categories – goods and services as well as discretionary and non-discretionary spending. With inflation within the RBA’s target range, the RBA initiated its first rate cut in February and then followed up with another 25 bps rate cut in May and another 25 bps in August. However, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock has since warned that significantly higher consumption growth will taper down future rate cuts. She has also been vocal in recent months highlighting the strength of the Australian economy, the fact that tariffs have not really impacted the Australian economy in a meaningful way and that the labour market still remains quite healthy. In this backdrop, yet another month of strong consumer spending data supports the RBA’s decision to stay put on the current level of policy rates and watch out for further inflationary pressures. The cash rate futures market shows a 29% probability of a rate hike in the upcoming February meeting.   

• Household Consumption increased 1.0% m-o-m in Nov 2025 (Expected NA)

4th Dec 2025

Key takeaway: Household spending rose a healthy 1.3% m-o-m and 5.6% y-o-y in October on a current price, seasonally adjusted basis. The Household spending data release has substituted the erstwhile Retail Sales release. Enhancements to the Monthly Household Spending Indicator have enabled the Australian Bureau of Statistics to cease the long-standing Retail Trade publication on 31 July 2025. These enhancements allow for broader and more timely insights into household consumption patterns. Retail sales data has generally been soft throughout 2025. With the exception of the month of February, Retail sales growth numbers had been fairly soft in the first half of the year. Housing spending meanwhile, has generally been on an upward trend since the 4th quarter of 2024. With inflation within the RBA’s target range, the RBA initiated its first rate cut in February and then followed up with another 25 bps rate cut in May and another 25 bps in August. However, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock has since warned that significantly higher consumption growth will taper down future rate cuts. She has also been vocal in recent months highlighting the strength of the Australian economy, the fact that tariffs have not really impacted the Australian economy in a meaningful way and that the labour market still remains quite healthy. In this backdrop, yet another month of strong consumer spending data supports the RBA’s decision to stay put on the current level of policy rates and watch out for further inflationary pressures.    

• Household Consumption increased 1.3% m-o-m in Oct 2025 (Expected NA)

3rd Nov 2025

Key takeaway: Household spending rose 0.2% m-o-m in September on a current price, seasonally adjusted basis. The Household spending data release has substituted the erstwhile Retail Sales release. Enhancements to the Monthly Household Spending Indicator have enabled the Australian Bureau of Statistics to cease the long-standing Retail Trade publication on 31 July 2025. These enhancements allow for broader and more timely insights into household consumption patterns. Retail sales data has generally been soft throughout 2025. With the exception of the month of February, Retail sales growth numbers had been fairly soft in the first half of the year. Housing spending meanwhile, has generally been on an upward trend since the 4th quarter of 2024. With inflation within the RBA’s target range, the RBA initiated its first rate cut in February and then followed up with another 25 bps rate cut in May and another 25 bps in August. However, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock has warned that significantly higher consumption growth will taper down future rate cuts. She has also been vocal in recent months highlighting the strength of the Australian economy, the fact that tariffs have not really impacted the Australian economy in a meaningful way and that the labour market still remains quite decent.    

• Household Consumption increased 0.2% m-o-m in Sep 2025 (Expected NA)

2nd Oct 2025

Key takeaway: Household spending rose 0.1% m-o-m in August on a current price, seasonally adjusted basis. This Household spending data release has substituted the erstwhile Retail Sales release. Enhancements to the Monthly Household Spending Indicator have enabled the Australian Bureau of Statistics to cease the long-standing Retail Trade publication on 31 July 2025. These enhancements allow for broader and more timely insights into household consumption patterns. Retail sales data has generally been soft throughout 2025. With the exception of the month of February, Retail sales growth numbers have been fairly soft in the first 5 months of the year. Housing spending meanwhile, has generally been on an upward trend since the 4th quarter of 2024. With inflation within the RBA’s target range, the RBA initiated its first rate cut in February and then followed up with another 25 bps rate cut in May and another 25 bps in August. However, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock has warned that significantly higher consumption growth will taper down future rate cuts. She has also been vocal in recent months highlighting the strength of the Australian economy, the fact that tariffs have not really impacted the Australian economy in a meaningful way and that the labour market still remains quite decent.    

• Household Consumption increased 0.1% m-o-m in Aug 2025 (Expected NA)

4th Sep 2025

Key takeaway: Household spending rose 0.5% m-o-m in July on a current price, seasonally adjusted basis. This Household spending data release has substituted the erstwhile Retail Sales release. Enhancements to the Monthly Household Spending Indicator have enabled the Australian Bureau of Statistics to cease the long-standing Retail Trade publication on 31 July 2025. These enhancements allow for broader and more timely insights into household consumption patterns. Retail sales data has generally been soft throughout 2025. With the exception of the month of February, Retail sales growth numbers have been fairly soft in the first 5 months of the year. Private investment figures for Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 have also been relatively soft. While recent household consumption figures indicate fairly decent growth, policy makers are on the watch for signs of a slowing economy. With recent inflation readings slowing down and a housing downturn, the RBA initiated its first rate cut in February and then followed up with another 25 bps rate cut in May and another 25 bps in August. However, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock has warned that significantly higher consumption growth will taper down future rate cuts.   

• Household Consumption increased 0.5% m-o-m in July 2025 (Expected NA)

5th Aug 2025

Key takeaway: Household spending rose 0.5% m-o-m in June on a current price, seasonally adjusted basis. This latest Household spending data release substitutes the Retail Sales release. Enhancements to the Monthly Household Spending Indicator have enabled the Australian Bureau of Statistics to cease the long-standing Retail Trade publication on 31 July 2025. These enhancements allow for broader and more timely insights into household consumption patterns. Retail sales data has generally been soft throughout 2025. With the exception of the month of February, Retail sales growth numbers have been fairly soft in the first 5 months of the year. Private investment figures for Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 have also been relatively soft. While the latest Household consumption indicates fairly decent growth, policy makers are on the watch for signs of a slowing economy. With recent inflation readings slowing down and a housing downturn, the RBA initiated its first rate cut in February and then followed up with another 25 bps rate cut in May. The RBA is widely expected to cut rates by another 25 basis points when it meets in August.   

• Household Consumption increased 0.5% m-o-m in June 2025 (Expected NA)

2nd Jul 2025

Key takeaway: Retail Sales increased 0.2% m-o-m in May. The print was below consensus expectations of a 0.3% increase. Retail sales data has generally been soft throughout 2025. With the exception of the month of February, Retail sales growth numbers have been fairly soft in the first 5 months of the year. Private investment figures for Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 have also been relatively soft. The latest retail sales data also coincided with a relatively weak print on building approvals for the month of May. However, inflation in Australia has remained stubbornly high compared to the rest of the developed world and hence RBA has been the laggard amongst developed market Central Banks on monetary easing. With recent inflation readings slowing down and a housing downturn, the RBA initiated its first rate cut in February and then followed up with another 25 bps rate cut in May. The RBA is widely expected to cut rates by another 25 basis points when it meets in July. The market is currently pricing in 3 rate cuts for 2025.  

• Retail Sales increased 0.2% m-o-m in May 2025 (Expected +0.3%)

30th May 2025

Key takeaway: Retail Sales decreased 0.1% m-o-m in April. The print was below consensus expectations of a 0.3% increase. Recall that Retail Sales were fairly soft in the previous month of January as well. Even though Retail Sales had increased in January, it was one of the lowest readings recorded for the first month of the year in the past 5 years. Since then Retail sales have mostly been soft in Australia as households have been cautious on spending. The soft sales data also coincides with weaker than expected private investment figures as well as a dip in residential construction. Inflation in Australia has remained stubbornly high compared to the rest of the developed world and hence RBA has been the laggard amongst developed market Central Banks on monetary easing. With recent inflation readings slowing down and a housing downturn, the RBA initiated its first rate cut in February and then followed up with another 25 bps rate cut in May. If data continue to weaken further, we might see additional rate cuts starting to get priced in. The market is currently pricing in 3 rate cuts for 2025.  

• Retail Sales decreased 0.1% m-o-m in Apr 2025 (Expected +0.3%)

2nd May 2025

Key takeaway: Retail Sales increased 0.3% m-o-m in March. The print was slightly below consensus expectations of a 0.4% increase. Recall that Retail Sales were fairly soft in the previous month of January as well. Even though Retail Sales had increased in January, it was one of the lowest readings recorded for the first month of the year in the past 5 years. The latest print makes it 3 months in a row of softish retail sales, but m-o-m increases nonetheless. On a y-o-y basis, sales increased 4.3%. Inflation in Australia has remained stubbornly high compared to the rest of the developed world and hence RBA has been the laggard amongst developed market Central Banks on monetary easing. With recent inflation readings slowing down and a housing downturn, the RBA initiated its first rate cut in February. However, the latest quarterly inflation reading for 1Q 20225 came in slightly firmer than expected. This has caused doubts about RBA actions at the upcoming mid May meeting.   

• Retail Sales increased 0.3% m-o-m in Mar 2025 (Expected +0.4%)

1st Apr 2025

Key takeaway: Retail Sales increased 0.2% m-o-m in February. The print was slightly below consensus expectations of a 0.3% increase. Recall that Retail Sales were fairly soft in the previous month of January as well. Even though Retail Sales had increased in January, it was one of the lowest readings recorded for the first month of the year in the past 5 years. The latest print makes it 2 months in a row of softish retail sales. On a y-o-y basis, sales increased 3.6%. Inflation in Australia has remained stubbornly high compared to the rest of the developed world and hence RBA has been the laggard amongst developed market Central Banks on monetary easing. However, with recent inflation readings slowing down and a housing downturn, the RBA initiated its first rate cut in February. However, the RBA held its cash rate steady at 4.1% today as it awaits further data on the Australian economy and also the potential outcomes of the various cross currents in the global economy.   

• Retail Sales increased 0.2% m-o-m in Feb 2025 (Expected +0.2%)

4th Mar 2025

Key takeaway: Retail Sales increased 0.3% m-o-m in January. The print was in line with consensus expectations and slightly better than minus 0.1% in December. Even though Retail Sales increased, it was one of the lowest readings recorded for the first month of the year in the past 5 years. On a y-o-y basis, sales increased 3.8%. Inflation in Australia has remained stubbornly high compared to the rest of the developed world and hence RBA has been the laggard amongst developed market Central Banks on monetary easing. However, with recent inflation readings slowing down and a housing downturn, the RBA initiated its first rate cut in February.   

• Retail Sales increased 0.3% m-o-m in Jan 2025 (Expected +0.3%)

3rd Feb 2025

Key takeaway: Retail Sales decreased 0.1% m-o-m in December. Even though Retail Sales fell, the decrease was lesser than consensus expectations of a fall of 0.7%. The latest decrease comes on the back of a few good months of solid increases in sales. Retail Sales had mostly been soft for most of 2024 after a sharp rise in the first couple of months of the year. However, towards the end of 2024, Retail Sales picked up once again. The latest month includes Cyber Monday sales which might have boosted the numbers a bit. On a y-o-y basis, Retail Sales have grown 4.6%. Inflation in Australia has remained stubbornly high compared to the rest of the developed world and hence RBA has been the laggard amongst developed market Central Banks on monetary easing. However, latest monthly CPI readings have indicated a slowdown in inflation. Housing market indicators have also started to reflect a slowdown in prices. Markets are starting to expected a policy pivot from the RBA is on the horizon.       

• Retail Sales decreased 0.1% m-o-m in Dec 2024 (Expected -0.7%)

9th Jan 2025

Key takeaway: Retail Sales increased a decent 0.8% m-o-m in November, but came in lower than consensus expectations of an increase of 1.0%. Retail Sales had mostly been soft for most of 2024 after a sharp rise in the first couple of months of the year. However, towards the end of 2024, Retail Sales have picked up once again. The latest month includes Black Friday sales which played a key role in the increase. Inflation in Australia has remained stubbornly high and hence RBA has been the laggard amongst developed market Central Banks on monetary easing. However, latest monthly CPI readings have indicated a slowdown in inflation. Housing market indicators have also started to reflect a slowdown in prices. Markets are starting to expected a policy pivot from the RBA is on the horizon.       

• Retail Sales increased 0.8% m-o-m in Nov 2024 (Expected +1.0%)

2nd Dec 2024

Key takeaway: Retail Sales increased for a third straight month in October rising 0.6% m-o-m and beating consensus expectations of an increase of 0.4%. Retail Sales had mostly been soft for most of 2024 after a sharp rise in the first couple of months of the year. The latest number also comes on the back of a muted 0.1% increase the earlier month in September. Nonetheless, the latest number was noteworthy as it still indicates that consumption while not growing at a robust pace, has still not demonstrated signs of precipitous falls. Inflation in Australia has remained stubbornly high and hence RBA has been the laggard amongst developed market Central Banks on monetary easing. The latest monthly CPI indicator also demonstrated no meaningful decline this month.      

• Retail Sales increased 0.6% m-o-m in Oct 2024 (Expected +0.4%)

30th Oct 2024

Key takeaway: The first 2 months of the year had seen a decent rise in Retail Sales on the back of Cricket and tennis tournaments in Australia and the subsequent Taylor Swift concerts which provided a boost to consumption – especially spending in cafes and spending on clothing footwear, etc. However, the subsequent 4 months had remained relatively soft. The latest Retail Trade release from the ABS shows Retail Sales grew a weak 0.1% in September. However, that was on the back of a solid 0.7% increase in the month of August. Also, on a y-o-y basis, Retail spend increased 2.3% up from 1.9% in September. Inflation in Australia has remained stubbornly high and hence RBA has been the laggard amongst developed market Central Banks on monetary easing. On the other hand, consumption while ok, has not been very robust.     

• Retail Sales increased 0.1% m-o-m in Sep 2024 (Expected 0.3%)

1st Oct 2024

Key takeaway: After a positive start in early 2024, Retail Sales data in Australia has mostly been soft. Retail Sales was up a solid 0.7% on a SA adjusted basis in August. The print was higher than consensus expectations of +0.4%. The first 2 months of the year had seen a decent rise in Retail Sales on the back of Cricket and tennis tournaments in Australia and the subsequent Taylor Swift concerts which provided a boost to consumption – especially spending in cafes and spending on clothing footwear, etc. However, the subsequent 4 months had remained relatively soft. Inflation in Australia has remained stubbornly high and hence RBA has been the laggard amongst developed market Central Banks on monetary easing. On the other hand, consumption while ok, has not been very robust. Hence the latest monthly reading has been perceived as very positive by markets. However, some also believe that the latest strong print might be attributable to a warmer than normal August.    

• Retail Sales increased 0.7% m-o-m in Aug 2024 (Expected 0.4%)

31st Jul 2024

Key takeaway: After a positive start in early 2024, Retail Sales data in Australia has mostly been soft. Retail Sales was up 0.5% on a SA adjusted basis in June. The print was higher than consensus expectations of +0.2%. The first 2 months of the year had seen a decent rise in Retail Sales on the back of Cricket and tennis tournaments in Australia and the subsequent Taylor Swift concerts which provided a boost to consumption – especially spending in cafes and spending on clothing footwear, etc. However, the subsequent 4 months have remained relatively soft. On one hand, labor still remains relatively tight and inflation remains stubbornly high. On the other hand, consumption while ok, has not been very robust. This remains the key challenge for policy makers in Australia. The level of total retail sales was at AUD 36.2 Bn in June.   

• Retail Sales increased 0.5% m-o-m in Jun 2024 (Expected 0.2%)

29th May 2024

Key takeaway: After a positive start in early 2024, Retail Sales data in Australia has mostly been soft. Retail Sales was up a marginal 0.1% on a SA adjusted basis in April. The print was also lower than consensus expectations of 0.3%. The first 2 months of the year had seen a decent rise in Retail Sales on the back of Cricket and tennis tournaments in Australia and the subsequent Taylor Swift concerts which provided a boost to consumption – especially spending in cafes and spending on clothing footwear, etc. Hence, it was a bit expected to see a moderation in Retail Sales in subsequent months. On the balance, consumers have been cautious with discretionary spending. Clothing sales and food retailing posted drops in the month of April. The level of total retail sales was at AUD 35.7 Bn in April.   

• Retail Sales increased 0.1% m-o-m in Apr 2024 (Expected 0.3%)

30th Apr 2024

Key takeaway: Retail Sales data is an important consideration for interest rate policy in most countries – and Australia is no exception. Retail Sales recorded a modest decrease of 0.4% m-o-m in March. The first 2 months of the year had seen a decent rise in Retail Sales on the back of Cricket and tennis tournaments in Australia and the subsequent Taylor Swift concerts which provided a boost to consumption – especially spending in cafes and spending on clothing footwear, etc. Hence, it was a bit expected to see a moderation in Retail Sales in March. Though the decrease of 0.4% was higher than consensus estimates of a fall of 0.2%. The largest drops were in Clothing, Footwear and Accessory Retailing and Department Stores. The level of total retail sales was at AUD 35.7 Bn in March.   

• Retail Sales decreased 0.4% m-o-m in Mar 2024 (Expected -0.2%)

28th Mar 2024

Key takeaway: Retail Sales data is an important consideration for interest rate policy in most countries – and Australia is no exception. Retail Sales recorded a modest increase of 0.3% m-o-m in February.  The rise also comes on the back of a 1.1% increase seen in January. Cricket and tennis tournaments in Australia at the start of the year and the subsequent Taylor Swift concerts provided a boost to consumption – especially spending in cafes and spending on clothing footwear, etc. However, volatility smoothed figures show that retail sales have moderated significantly since 2021-22. The level of total retail sales was at AUD 35.9 Bn in February.   

• Retail Sales increased 0.3% m-o-m in Feb 2024 (Expected 0.4%)

29th Feb 2024

Key takeaway: Retail Sales data is an important consideration for interest rate policy in most countries – and Australia is no exception. Retail Sales recorded a sharp jump of 1.1% m-o-m in January 2024. However, the rise comes on the back of a sharp fall recorded in December and hence expectations were for an increase anyways. However, the key point to note is that increase was lower than consensus expectations of 1.6%. The level of total retail sales was at AUD 35.7 Bn in January. Sales grew across all categories with Clothing and Footwear increasing the largest at 2.4% and Household goods retailing next at 2.3%.  

• Retail Sales increased 1.1% m-o-m in Jan 2024 (Expected 1.6%)

30th Jan 2024

Key takeaway: Retail Sales data is an important consideration for interest rate policy in most countries – and Australia is no exception. Retail Sales recorded a sharp drop of 2.7% m-o-m in December 2023 and higher than consensus expectations. Some of the sharp drop can be attributed to the fact that Retail Sales were substantially up (+1.6%) in the previous month of November. The level of total retail sales was at AUD 35.1 bn in Dec. Sales fell across all categories with Household goods falling the largest at 8.5% and Department Stores next at -8.1%.  

• Retail Sales decreased 2.7% m-o-m in Dec 2023 (Expected -1.0%)