Australia Macro Updates

Key takeaway: The ABS Monthly CPI for June 2026, released on July 29, delivered a broadly encouraging print that came in below expectations on both the headline and monthly measure — though the underlying picture remains uncomfortably elevated for the RBA. Annual CPI eased to 3.8% in the twelve months to June, down from 4.0% in May, while on a monthly basis the CPI fell 0.1% in both original and seasonally adjusted terms — defying expectations of a 0.2% rise and marking a second consecutive monthly decline. Trimmed mean inflation held steady at 3.6% annually, unchanged from May, with ABS head of price statistics Rachael McCririck noting that automotive fuel has been excluded from the trimmed mean every month since March 2026 given the conflict-driven distortions, meaning the underlying read strips out energy volatility in both directions. Housing remained the dominant driver of annual inflation at 6.8%, with electricity surging 22.4% over the year following the expiry of Commonwealth and State Government electricity rebates, and new dwelling prices rising 5.8% as project home builders passed on higher labour and materials costs. Transport annual inflation collapsed to just 0.1%, down from 3.3% in May, as automotive fuel prices fell 10.9% in June following an 11.9% decline in May, reflecting both lower world oil prices amid some stabilisation in the Middle East and the continued federal fuel excise relief. The June result — covering the full quarter and feeding directly into the RBA’s August board meeting — presents a central bank caught between a trimmed mean that has been stuck above the 2–3% target band for three consecutive months and a headline that is visibly rolling over, leaving the case for a further rate hike finely balanced against an economy where unemployment is rising and household spending is under pressure.

• Australia Monthly CPI decreased to 3.8% yo-y in Jun (expected 3.9%)

24th Jun 2026

Key takeaway: Australia’s latest monthly CPI data, released by the ABS on 24 June 2026 for the May 2026 reference month, showed headline inflation easing to 4.0% annually, down from 4.2% in April. On a monthly basis, the CPI actually fell 0.7% in original terms, largely on a 11.9% drop in automotive fuel prices (following a 7.0% fall in April), reflecting the halving of the fuel excise from 1 April and lower world oil prices. Trimmed mean (underlying) inflation, which strips out volatile items, actually rose to 3.6% from 3.4%, suggesting underlying price pressures remain firmer than the headline figure implies. Housing remained the biggest contributor to annual inflation at 6.5%, driven by electricity (up 21.1% as government rebates rolled off), new dwellings, and rents. Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation rose to 3.3% (from 2.8%), pushed by a 4.0% annual rise in meals out and takeaway, while Transport inflation eased sharply to 3.3% from 6.6% in April as fuel prices fell.

• Australia Monthly CPI decreased to 4.0% yo-y in May (expected 4.3%)

28th May 2026

Key takeaway: The ABS Monthly CPI for April 2026, released on May 28, showed headline inflation easing to 4.2% annually — down from 4.6% in March and a touch below consensus — but the read-through for the RBA was far from comforting, with underlying price pressures actually firming on the month. The decline in headline inflation was largely mechanical, driven by automotive fuel prices falling 7.0% in April after the federal government cut the fuel excise from 52.6 cents per litre to 20.6 cents per litre on 1 April, following a 32.8% surge in March; despite the monthly drop, fuel prices remained 23.5% higher than in February. Stripping out volatile items, trimmed mean inflation ticked up to 3.4% annually from 3.3% in March — the highest since September 2024 — with automotive fuel excluded from the trimmed mean in both months, meaning the underlying read reflects genuine broadening of price pressures rather than energy base effects. The largest contributors to annual inflation were Housing at 6.3%, Transport at 6.6%, and Food and non-alcoholic beverages at 2.8%, with electricity costs running 22.5% higher than a year ago as government rebates that had suppressed household power bills are no longer in place. Food inflation eased to its lowest since December 2021 at 2.8%, though early signs of broader price pressures are beginning to emerge as higher diesel, freight and petrochemical costs flow through supply chains into construction costs. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.4% in original terms but fell 0.1% in seasonally adjusted terms, well below the expected 0.6% gain — though that softer monthly print is entirely a function of the fuel excise cut and provides little relief for the RBA, which now faces a trimmed mean running above its 2–3% target at a time when the labour market is showing its first signs of cracking.

• Australia Monthly CPI decreased to 4.2% yo-y in Apr (expected 4.4%)

29th Apr 2026
Key takeaway: The ABS Monthly CPI for March 2026, released on April 29, showed a sharp re-acceleration in Australian inflation driven primarily by the Iran war energy shock. Annual CPI jumped to 4.6% in the 12 months to March — up from 3.7% in February and the highest reading since September 2023 — though coming in slightly below market forecasts of 4.8%. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 1.1%, the fastest monthly pace since July 2025. Transport was the dominant driver, surging 8.9% year-on-year — a dramatic reversal from February’s 0.2% decline — as automotive fuel prices spiked with the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. Housing inflation remained elevated at 6.5%, with electricity costs 25.4% higher than a year ago as Commonwealth and State government energy rebates are no longer in place. The most closely watched measure for the RBA, trimmed mean inflation, held steady at 3.3% year-on-year, unchanged from February and in line with expectations — a result that offered the RBA some comfort that the March spike is largely energy-driven and not yet embedding into underlying prices. Nevertheless, with headline inflation now running well above the RBA’s 2–3% target band, the data significantly complicates the case for near-term rate cuts, and markets have sharply pushed back expectations for further RBA easing into the second half of 2026. 

• Australia Monthly CPI increased to 4.6% yo-y in Mar (expected 4.8%)

25th Mar 2026

Key takeaway: The latest Australia CPI release (February 2026, monthly indicator) suggests a modest easing in headline inflation but continued stickiness in underlying price pressures. Headline CPI was flat on the month and slowed slightly to ~3.7% YoY (from 3.8% in January), remaining above the RBA’s 2–3% target band. At the same time, the RBA’s preferred trimmed mean (core) inflation held steady at ~3.3% YoY, with a softer-than-expected monthly increase (~0.2%), indicating only gradual disinflation. The moderation in the headline print was driven by declines in fuel and holiday travel costs, although housing-related components—particularly rents and electricity—continue to exert upward pressure. Overall, the data points to inflation cooling only incrementally, with underlying pressures still elevated, leaving the RBA in a cautious position as near-term risks—especially from rising global energy prices—skew inflation expectations to the upside.  

• Australia Monthly CPI declined to 3.7% yo-y in Feb (expected 3.8%)

25th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: Australia’s quarterly CPI indicator has been the key gauge of inflation in Australia over the years. However, the Australian Bureau of Statistics commenced a more timely monthly CPI indicator from July 2022. The latest monthly print for January showed inflation in Australia held steady at 3.8% y-o-y. The print was slightly higher than consensus expectations of an increase of 3.7%. The trimmed mean CPI also held steady at 3.4%. Inflation in Australia accelerated since reaching a low of 2.7% in mid 2025. While it has not run up significantly, it remains outside the RBAs target band of 2-3%. Given the resilience of the Australian economy and continuing price pressures, the RBA hiked rates from 3.6% to 3.85% in February, becoming the first major central bank to tighten monetary policy.  

• Australia Monthly CPI remained at 3.8% yo-y in Jan (expected 3.7%)

28th Jan 2026

Key takeaway: Australia’s quarterly CPI indicator has been the key gauge of inflation in Australia over the years. However, the Australian Bureau of Statistics commenced a more timely monthly CPI indicator from July 2022. The latest monthly print for December showed inflation in Australia rose from 3.4% to 3.8% y-o-y. The print was also higher than consensus expectations of an increase of 3.4%. The trimmed mean CPI increased from 3.2% to 3.3%. While the latest inflation report shows a sharp increase, it is worth noting that both the headline and trimmed mean figures are back to what they were in the previous month of November. While inflation in Australia has surprised on the upside through 2H 2025, it has not risen very substantially from the lows of 2024 and early 2025. Nonetheless, the RBA has been hawkish in its rhetoric in recent months with the Governor Michelle Bullock expressing her views about the resilience of the Australian economy and continuing price pressures. Interest rate futures are now pricing in a 60% rate hike probability at the February RBA meeting next week.  

• Australia Monthly CPI increased to 3.8% yo-y in Dec (expected 3.5%)

26th Nov 2025

Key takeaway: Australia’s quarterly CPI indicator has been the key gauge of inflation in Australia over the years. The Australian Bureau of Statistics commenced a more timely monthly CPI indicator from July 2022. Market participants pay close attention to the quarterly report as it forms the key base for RBAs monetary policy decisions. However, the previous release of quarterly CPI for the September 25 quarter marked the last of this series and completes the ABS transition to monthly CPI data. The quarterly CPI as per that release on 29th Oct 2025, rose 3.2% y-o-y. The trimmed mean rose 3.0%. Both measures were higher than market expectations. The monthly CPI had risen to 3.5% y-o-y in September 2025. The latest monthly print for October showed a further acceleration in inflation, rising from 3.5% to 3.8%. The print was also higher than consensus expectations of an increase of 3.6%. The trimmed mean CPI increased from 3.2% to 3.3%. Inflation in Australia had surprised on the upside in the first quarter of 2025. That had caused some realignment of rate cut expectations and accordingly the RBA had held stead at the monetary policy meetings. However relatively soft prints in the second quarter made the RBA cut for the 3rd time in 2025 in the month of August, taking its cash rate to 3.6%. Since then, the RBA has been on a pause with Michelle Bullock expressing her views about the resilience of the Australian economy and continuing price pressures. That view has been somewhat vindicated with recent higher inflation prints including the latest print for October. 

• Australia Monthly CPI increased to 3.8% yo-y in Oct (expected 3.6%)

29th Oct 2025

Key takeaway: Australia’s quarterly CPI indicator has been the key gauge of inflation in Australia over the years. The Australian Bureau of Statistics commenced a more timely monthly CPI indicator from July 2022. Market participants pay close attention to the quarterly report as it forms the key base for RBAs monetary policy decisions. However, this latest release of quarterly CPI for the September 25 quarter marks the last of this series and completes the ABS transition to monthly CPI data. The quarterly CPI as per the latest release on 29th Oct 2025 rose 3.2% y-o-y. The trimmed mean rose 3.0%. Both measures were higher than market expectations. The monthly CPI, rose 3.5% y-o-y in September 2025. The latest monthly print is a sharp acceleration from the 3.0% seen in the previous month of August. The print was also higher than consensus expectations of an increase of 3.1%. The trimmed mean CPI increased from 2.6% to 2.8%. Inflation in Australia had surprised on the upside in the first quarter of 2025. That had caused some realignment of rate cut expectations and accordingly the RBA had held stead at the monetary policy meetings. However relatively soft prints in the second quarter made the RBA cut for the 3rd time in 2025 in the month of August, taking its cash rate to 3.6%. Since then, the RBA has been on a pause with Michelle Bullock expressing her views about the resilience of the Australian economy and continuing price pressures. 

• Australia Monthly CPI increased to 3.5% yo-y in Sep (expected 3.1%)

24th Sep 2025

Key takeaway: The latest monthly CPI print showed inflation in Australia accelerated once again in the month of August. The monthly indicator increased from 1.9% in June to 2.8% in July to 3.0% in August. The print was also higher than consensus expectations of a 2.9% increase. CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel increased from 3.2% to 3.4%. The trimmed mean however decreased from 2.7% to 2.6%. Both, quarterly and monthly inflation prints were mostly printing lower figures through most of 2025. With lower inflation prints and global and local growth uncertainties, the RBA chose to cut rates thrice this year, with the latest 25 basis points cut in August. However, the last few monthly prints have cast a shadow on further rate cuts. The RBA Governor Michelle Bullock recently commented that economic data has generally held up well since the August meeting and has exceeded her expectations. The latest higher inflation prints will mean the RBA will be more cautious on further rate cuts. The RBA has forecast headline inflation, which ran at 2.1% last quarter, to pick up to 3.1% by the middle of 2026, as electricity rebates fade. However, it forecasts core inflation to remain around the 2.6% level. 

• Australia Monthly CPI in Aug increased to 3.0% yo-y (expected 2.9%)

27th Aug 2025

Key takeaway: The latest monthly CPI print showed inflation in Australia accelerated sharply in the month of July. The monthly indicator increased from 1.9% in June to 2.8% in July – the highest print since July 2024. The print was also higher than consensus expectations of a 2.3% increase. The trimmed mean also increased from 2.1% to 2.7%. Both, quarterly and monthly inflation prints were mostly printing lower figures through most of 2025. with lower inflation prints and global and local growth uncertainties, the RBA chose to cut rates thrice this year, with the latest 25 basis points cut in August. However, the latest print now casts a shadow on further rate cuts and increases the probability of the RBA standing pat at the next meeting in late September. While the RBA chooses to focus on the more reliable quarterly CPI prints, the latest monthly print merits a further wait and watch approach.  

• Australia Monthly CPI in Jul increased to 2.8% yo-y (expected 2.3%)

30th Jul 2025

Key takeaway: The latest monthly CPI print showed inflation in Australia fell once again in the month of June. The monthly indicator fell from 2.1% in May to 1.9% in June. The print was also lower than consensus expectations of a 2.1%. The trimmed mean also declined from 2.4% to 2.1%. While the RBA chooses to focus on the more reliable quarterly CPI prints, the soft latest monthly print provides further ammunition to the RBA for cutting rates further. The quarterly print for Q2, which was released around the same time, also showed a softer-then-expected inflation print. The market implied probability for a rate cut at the August meeting has also ticked up slightly to 52%. The RBA cut rates by 25 bps to 3.85% at its May meeting and there is a strong chance that rates would be cut to 3.6% at the August meeting.  

• Australia Monthly CPI in Jun decreased to 1.9% yo-y (expected 2.1%)

25th Jun 2025

Key takeaway: The latest monthly CPI print showed inflation in Australia fell sharply in the month of May. The monthly indicator fell from 2.4% in April to 2.1% in May. The print was also lower than consensus expectations of a drop to 2.3%. The trimmed mean also declined from 2.8% to 2.4%. While the RBA chooses top focus on the more reliable quarterly CPI prints, the soft latest monthly print provides further ammunition to the RBA for cutting rates further, including at the upcoming July meeting. The market implied probability for a rate cut at the July meeting has also increased. The RBA cut rates by 25 bps to 3.85% at its May meeting. .  

• Australia Monthly CPI in May decreased to 2.1% y-o-y (expected 2.3%)

28th May 2025

Key takeaway: The latest monthly CPI print showed inflation in Australia held steady in the month of April. The monthly indicator remained at 2.4% in April, same as the previous month of March. However, it was slightly higher than consensus expectations of a drop to 2.3%. The trimmed mean also increased from 2.7% to 2.8%. While inflation has generally been trending down in Australia, the latest quarterly and recent monthly prints have been slightly above expectations, both on headline and core. This complicates RBAs monetary policy decision making for a rate cut in an environment where the labour market has weakened a bit and tariffs create further uncertainty. The RBA cut rates by 25 bps to 3.85% at its May meeting. Despite recent hotter than expected inflation prints, market participants are expecting the RBA to cut again when it meets in July.  

• Australia Monthly CPI in Apr remained the same at 2.4% y-o-y (expected 2.3%)

30th Apr 2025

Key takeaway: The latest monthly CPI print showed inflation in Australia held steady in the month of March. The monthly indicator remained at 2.4% in March, same as the previous month of February. The monthly inflation readings for March also coincide with the more important quarterly CPI readings. While inflation has generally been trending down in Australia, the latest quarterly and monthly prints have been slightly above expectations, both on headline and core. This complicates RBAs monetary policy decision making for a rate cut in an environment where the labour market has weakened a bit and tariffs create further uncertainty. The measure of CPI which excludes volatile items and holiday travel decreased from 2.7% to 2.6%. The annual trimmed mean remained static at 2.7%. The RBA and market participants pay close attention to this annual trimmed mean for monetary policy considerations.  

• Australia Monthly CPI in Mar remained the same at 2.4% y-o-y (expected 2.4%)

26th Mar 2025

Key takeaway: The latest monthly CPI print showed inflation in Australia declined in the month of February. The monthly indicator fell from 2.5% in January to 2.4% in February. This was slightly below consensus expectations of a 2.5% print. While not very significant, the monthly decline will provide further comfort to the RBA that prices are generally declining and the trend is likely to continue. The RBA initiated its first rate cut of this cycle earlier in the year. The RBA meets next at the end of March. While it is unlikely that the RBA will cut in March, markets seem to be putting a little more probability on a rate cut in May post this latest month’s release. The measure of CPI which excludes volatile items and holiday travel decreased from 2.9% to 2.7%, reversing the previous month’s increase. The annual trimmed mean decreased from 2.8% to 2.7%. The RBA and market participants pay close attention to this annual trimmed mean for monetary policy considerations.  

• Australia Monthly CPI in Feb declined to 2.4% y-o-y (expected 2.5%)

26th Feb 2025

Key takeaway: The latest monthly CPI print showed inflation in Australia held steady in the month of January. The monthly indicator remained at 2.5% in January – same as the previous month in December. This was slightly below consensus expectations of a 2.6% print. The measure though declined 0.2% on a m-o-m basis. While not very significant, the monthly decline will provide further comfort to the RBA that prices are generally declining and the trend is likely to continue. The RBA initiated its first rate cut of this cycle earlier in the month. The measure of CPI which excludes volatile items and holiday travel increased from 2.7% to 2.9%, reversing the previous month’s decline. The annual trimmed mean also increased from 2.7% to 2.8%. The RBA and market participants pay close attention to this annual trimmed mean for monetary policy considerations. The more widely tracked quarterly inflation release (for Q4) also came in lower than expected and the trimmed measures in the quarterly release were also softer than expected. Markets are still pricing a low probability that the RBA cuts again in April while a move in July has been fully priced in.  

• Australia Monthly CPI in Jan remained the same at 2.5% y-o-y (expected 2.6%)

29th Jan 2025

Key takeaway: The latest monthly CPI print showed inflation in Australia accelerated slightly in the month of December. The monthly indicator increased from 2.3% in November to 2.5% in December. This was in line with consensus expectations. The measure of CPI which excludes volatile items and holiday travel declined from 2.8% to 2.7%, reversing the previous month’s gains. The annual trimmed mean however declined further from 3.2% to 2.7%. The RBA and market participants pay close attention to this annual trimmed mean for monetary policy considerations. Even though the headline print has been higher in December compared to November, market participants generally think that this is unlikely to derail the upcoming rate cut expectations. The more widely tracked quarterly inflation release also came in lower than expected and the trimmed measures in the quarterly release were also softer than expected. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has also recently indicated that headline inflation has been in the bottom half of the 2.0-3.0% target range for 3 continuous months for the first time since 2021. Overall, inflation has been mostly surprising to the upside in Australia and has stayed stubbornly high. Hence, the RBA has still not embarked on a rate cutting cycle unlike most of the developed economies. However, gradually the view seems to be adjusting to an upcoming rate cutting cycle. Markets now expect the first rate cut to come as early as February.   

• Australia Monthly CPI in Dec remained the same at 2.5% y-o-y (expected 2.5%)

8th Jan 2025

Key takeaway: The latest monthly CPI print showed inflation in Australia increased slightly in the month of November. The monthly indicator increased from 2.1% to 2.3%. This was also higher than consensus expectations of an increase of 2.2%. On  seasonally adjusted basis, headline CPI increased from 2.3% to 2.5%. The measure of CPI which excludes volatile items and holiday travel rose quite sharply from 2.4% to 2.8%. The annual trimmed mean however declined from 3.5% to 3.2%. The RBA and market participants pay close attention to this annual trimmed mean for monetary policy considerations. Even though the headline and core measures have come in higher than expected, market participants generally think that this is unlikely to derail the upcoming rate cut expectations. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has also recently indicated that headline inflation has been in the bottom half of the 2.0-3.0% target range for 3 continuous months for the first time since 2021. Overall, inflation has been mostly surprising to the upside in Australia and has stayed stubbornly high. Hence, the RBA has still not embarked on a rate cutting cycle unlike most of the developed economies. However, gradually the view seems to be adjusting to an upcoming rate cutting cycle.  

• Australia Monthly CPI in Nov increased to 2.3% y-o-y (expected 2.2%)

27th Nov 2024

Key takeaway: The latest monthly CPI print showed inflation in Australia remained steady in the month of October. The monthly indicator remained at 2.1% annual change in October, same as the previous month of September. While recent CPI data has continued to demonstrate a downward trend, the RBA has firmly indicated that it need to see more evidence of a sustained fall in inflation before it would move to cut interest rates. Even the latest report showed that core measures of inflation remain sticky. The CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel printed at 2.4% y-o-y in October compared to 2.7% in September. However, the annual trimmed mean sharply accelerated from 3.2% to 3.5%. The headline CPI has also been helped by a significant decrease in fuel and electricity costs which have been helped by government rebates. Overall, inflation has been mostly surprising to the upside in Australia and has stayed stubbornly high. Hence, the RBA has still not embarked on a rate cutting cycle unlike most of the developed economies. With an overall tight labour market and stubbornly high inflation, the market continues to reassess rate cut expectations with a strong likelihood that Australia does not see any rate cuts well into 2025.  

• Australia Monthly CPI remained the same at 2.1% y-o-y (expected 2.5%)

30th Oct 2024

Key takeaway: The latest monthly CPI print showed inflation in Australia continued to cool. The monthly indicator fell 2.7% annual change in August to 2.1% in September. The release comes on the same day as the quarterly CPI release – which is tracked more closely for inflation readings in Australia. Similar to the monthly print, the quarterly indicator also showed a sequential decline from the previous quarter. However, core measures of inflation remain sticky. The CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel printed at 2.7% y-o-y in September. Similarly, the annual trimmed mean remained high at 3.2%, even though it fell from the previous month of 3.4%. Inflation has been mostly surprising to the upside in Australia and has stayed stubbornly high. Hence, the RBA has still not embarked on a rate cutting cycle unlike most of the developed economies. With an overall tight labour market and stubbornly high inflation, the market continues to reassess rate cut expectations with a strong likelihood that Australia does not see any rate cuts well into 2025.  

• Australia Monthly CPI decreased to 2.1% y-o-y (expected 2.4%)

25th Sep 2024

Key takeaway: The latest monthly CPI print showed inflation in Australia continued to cool but remains some distance away from the 2% target. Headline inflation cooled from 3.5% to 2.7% y-o-y in August. The annual Trimmed Mean, a closely watched figure, also reduced from 3.8% to 3.4% y-o-y. Certain categories like housing rents, new dwelling purchases and insurance and financial services continued to remain high. Inflation has been mostly surprising to the upside in Australia and has stayed stubbornly high. Hence, the RBA has still not embarked on a rate cutting cycle unlike most of the developed economies. With an overall tight labour market and stubbornly high inflation, the market continues to reassess rate cut expectations with a strong likelihood that Australia does not see any rate cuts till the end of the year.  

• Australia Monthly CPI decreased to 2.7% y-o-y (expected 2.7%)

31st Jul 2024

Key takeaway: Inflation in Australia cooled a bit in June from the previous month of May. Headline inflation cooled from 4.0% to 3.8% y-o-y in June. However, on the balance, inflation remains stubbornly hot in Australia. The Q2 inflation report has also evidenced the fact that inflation continues to remain above the RBA’s comfort level. Monthly Core CPI, which excludes volatile items and holiday travel, also remained elevated at 4.0%. The trimmed mean measure declined from 4.4% to 4.0%. Inflation has been mostly surprising to the upside in Australia. The conundrum also remains that consumption has been mostly sluggish. On the other hand, the labour market continues to be tight and the housing shortage continues to put pressure on home prices and rental rates. Rents continued to increase at an elevated rate of 7.1% according to the latest report in June. Similarly, new dwelling purchases by owner occupiers also remained high at 5.4%. With an overall tight labour market and stubbornly high inflation, the market continues to reassess rate cut expectations with a strong likelihood that Australia does not see any rate cuts till the end of the year.  

• Australia Monthly CPI decreased to 3.8% y-o-y (expected 3.8%)

29th May 2024

Key takeaway: Inflation in Australia increased further in April after having posted a higher than consensus number in March as well. Recall that the, quarterly CPI indicator – which remains the key inflation gauge to monitor in Australia – had also posted a hotter than expected print for Q1 2024. Headline CPI accelerated from 3.5% to 3.6% in April. Core CPI, which excludes volatile items and holiday travel, also remained elevated at 4.1%. Finally, the trimmed mean measure also accelerated from 4.0% to 4.1%. Inflation has been mostly surprising to the upside in Australia. The conundrum also remains that consumption has been mostly sluggish. On the other hand, the labour market continues to be tight and the housing shortage continues to put pressure on home prices and rental rates. Rents continued to increase at an elevated rate of 7.5% according to the latest report in April. Similarly, new dwelling purchases by owner occupiers also remained high at 4.9%. With an overall tight labour market and a hotter than expected inflation print, the market is reassessing rate cut expectations wit a strong likelihood that Australia does not see any rate cuts till the end of the year.  

• Australia Monthly CPI increased to 3.6% y-o-y (expected 3.4%)

24th Apr 2024

Key takeaway: The quarterly CPI report remains the key inflation report to monitor in Australia. However, starting 2022, the Australian Statistics Bureau also starting publishing a monthly CPI report to provide more up to date, real time inflation readings in Australia. This month’s monthly inflation report coincided with the quarterly report release. 1Q 2024 inflation in CPI, even though on a downward trend, was reported higher than most participants expected. The monthly inflation report also indicated a similar story. Australia’s monthly CPI indicator increased slightly in March to 3.5% from 3.4% in February.Headline inflation has mostly been steady at this level for a few months now. Core inflation which excludes volatile items and holiday travel has also remained sticky around the 4.0% level. The annual trimmed mean also remains around the 4% level. These indicators remain above the 2-3% target level of the RBA. With an overall tight labour market and a hotter than expected inflation print, the market is reassessing rate cut expectations wit a strong likelihood that Australia does not see any rate cuts till the end of the year.  

• Australia Monthly CPI increased to 3.5% y-o-y (expected 3.4%)

27th Mar 2024

Key takeaway: Inflation in Australia has been easing similar to the rest of the world. Australia’s monthly CPI indicator held steady in February 2024 at 3.4%. However, this number was slightly lower than consensus expectations. Headline inflation has been steady at this level for 3 months in a row. Inflation has been falling since it peak since in December 2022 of 8.4%. However, similar to the US, market participants are keenly watching to see if it remains sticky at these levels. Similar to the US also, the housing sector has been a major contributor to inflation. New dwelling prices increased 4.9% in the 12 months to February. Rent inflation also remained high at  7.6%. The structural shortage in Australia’s housing market continues to reflect in the CPI data. Insurance and financial services CPI also continued to remain very high at 8.4%. On the balance though, the trend line for Australia’s CPI continues to be downwards.  

• Australia Monthly CPI held steady at 3.4% y-o-y (expected 3.5%)

28th Feb 2024

Key takeaway: Inflation in Australia has been easing similar to the rest of the world. Australia’s monthly CPI indicator held steady in January 2024 at 3.4% – the same as the previous month of December 2023. The y-o-y CPI slowed from 5.6% in September to 4.9% in October and 4.3% November to 3.4% December and then held at the same level in January. Similar to the US and some other developed economies, the largest contributor to the annual CPI continues to be the housing component. Needless to say there are differences between each country on how the shelter component is calculated and computed into the CPI. New dwelling prices increased 4.8% in the 12 months to January. While the rate of growth has eased substantially from the high of 22% in mid 2022, it is still substantially high from the perspective of the Australian Reserve Bank. Rent inflation also remains high at  7.4%. The structural shortage in Australia’s housing market continues to reflect in the CPI data. Insurance and financial services CPI also continued to remain very high at 8.2%. On the balance though, the trend line for Australia’s CPI continues to be downwards.  

• Australia Monthly CPI held steady at 3.4% y-o-y (expected 3.6%)

31st Jan 2024

Key takeaway: Australia’s monthly CPI indicator eased once again in December and this time by a very significant margin. The y-o-y CPI slowed from 5.6% in September to 4.9% in October and 4.3% November to finally the latest reading of 3.4% December. Similar to the US and some other developed economies, the largest contributor to the annual CPI continues to be the housing component. Needless to say there are differences between each country on how the shelter component is calculated and computed into the CPI. New dwelling prices increased 5.1% in the 12 months to December. While the rate of growth has eased substantially from the high of 22% in mid 2022, it is still substantially high from the perspective of the Australian Reserve Bank. Rent prices also accelerated from 7.1% November to 7.4% in December. The structural shortage in Australia’s housing market continues to reflect in the CPI data. Insurance and financial services CPI also continued to remain very high at 8.2%. On the balance though, the trend line for Australia’s CPI continues to be downwards.  

• Australia Monthly CPI decreased to 3.4% y-o-y (expected 3.7%)

10th Jan 2024

Key takeaway: Australia’s monthly CPI indicator eased once again in November. The y-o-y CPI number which is released monthly slowed from 5.6% in September to 4.9% in October to 4.3% in the latest reading for November. Similar to the US and some other developed economies, the largest contributor to the annual CPI continues to be the housing component. Needless to say there are differences between each country on how the shelter component is calculated and computed into the CPI. New dwelling prices increased 5.5% in the 12 months to November. While the rate of growth has eased substantially from the high of 22% in mid 2022, it is still substantially high from the perspective of the Australian Reserve Bank. Rent prices also accelerated from 6.6% in October to 7.1% in November. The structural shortage in Australia’s housing market continues to reflect in the CPI data. On the balance though, the trend line for Australia’s CPI continues to be downwards.  

• Australia Monthly CPI decreased to 4.3% y-o-y (expected 4.4%)