Australia Macro Updates

Key takeaway: The ABS Labour Force release for June 2026, published on July 23, delivered a dramatically stronger-than-expected employment print that on the surface looked like a sharp reversal of the deterioration seen in April and May — but the composition of the gain and a simultaneous rise in unemployment tempered any straightforward read as a genuine labour market recovery. Employment rose 76,300 to a record high of 14.82 million, far surpassing the consensus expectation of 15,000 and following an upwardly revised gain of 43,900 in May — with full-time employment up 29,300 and part-time up 47,100, leaving the majority of the gain in the less durable part-time category. Despite the employment surge, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.4% as the participation rate jumped 0.3 percentage points to 67.0% — its highest since July 2025 — pulling an additional 76,000 people into the labour force simultaneously, with the number of unemployed rising 12,700 to 686,800. ABS head of labour statistics Sean Crick attributed part of the June strength to workers who had been waiting to start a job in May finally commencing employment, describing it as a stronger June movement than observed in recent years. The underemployment rate climbed 0.2 percentage points to 6.5%, while the youth unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 10.7% — two signals that sit uneasily alongside the headline employment surge and suggest the broader labour market slack picture is still widening even as the top-line number flattered. In trend terms, employment grew just 0.2% and hours worked were unchanged, reinforcing the view that June’s seasonally adjusted print is more statistical noise than a genuine inflection in labour market conditions. 

• Employment change was +76.3K in Jun (estimate 15.0K)
• Unemployment rate remained at 4.4% in Jun (estimate 4.4%)

25th Jun 2026

Key takeaway: Australia’s latest labour force data, released by the ABS for May 2026, showed continued strength in the jobs market. Employment rose by 40,300 people (0.3%) to 14,738,800, driven mostly by part-time gains (+35,200) alongside a smaller full-time increase (+5,200). The unemployment rate edged down 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%, with 671,300 people unemployed, while the participation rate ticked up marginally to 66.7%. Underemployment rose slightly to 5.9%, though the broader underutilisation rate eased to 10.2%. By gender, unemployment held at 4.6% for men and fell to 4.1% for women, and youth unemployment dropped 0.6 points to 10.4%. Overall, the report points to a labour market that remains tight, with falling joblessness offset by a modest uptick in underemployment. 

• Employment change was +40.3K in May (estimate 31.2K)
• Unemployment rate decreased to 4.4% in May (estimate 4.4%)

21st May 2026

Key takeaway: The ABS Labour Force release for April 2026, published this morning, delivered a notable deterioration in headline conditions that came in worse than the RBA’s own forecasts. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.5%, with employed people falling by 19,000 while the number of unemployed rose by 33,000. Both full-time and part-time employment fell — down 11,000 and 8,000 respectively — with the overall decline driven by a drop in female employment, the first such fall since August 2025. The participation rate edged down 0.1 percentage point, which would ordinarily cushion the unemployment rate, making the 0.2 percentage point rise to 4.5% more significant — the increase was well above the Reserve Bank’s forecast in the May Statement of Monetary Policy. The trend measure, which smooths month-to-month volatility, showed employment still increasing by 22,100 to 14,753,800, with the trend unemployment rate holding at 4.3% — suggesting the seasonally adjusted print may overstate the underlying softening, though the direction of travel is clearly deteriorating. The ABS flagged that the incoming WA rotation group recorded a higher unemployment rate than other groups, adding a note of caution around the state-level breakdown, and noted that this is the first April release run partly on the bureau’s modernised survey collection system, though it assessed there to be no notable statistical impact from the transition. 

• Employment change was -18.6K in Apr (estimate 16.7K)
• Unemployment rate increased to 4.5% in Apr (estimate 4.3%)

16th Apr 2026
Key takeaway: The ABS Labour Force Survey for March 2026, released on April 16, showed Australia’s jobs market holding up but showing signs of modest softening. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.3% in March — unchanged from February and in line with forecasts — though this was still the highest level since November 2025. Employment rose by 17,900 to 14.77 million, below estimates of a 20,000 increase and the weakest monthly gain since a contraction in November, following an upwardly revised 49,600 gain in February. The composition was encouraging, however: full-time employment drove the gains, rising by 53,000, while part-time employment fell by 35,000, with full-time gains split broadly evenly between males and females. The participation rate edged down to 66.8% from February’s four-month high of 66.9%, while the underemployment rate held steady at 5.9% and total monthly hours worked rose by 9 million to 2,016 million. In trend terms, both employment and hours worked grew 0.2% in March, with annual hours worked growth of 2.0% running ahead of annual employment growth of 1.4%, suggesting existing workers are putting in more hours rather than the market generating significant new job creation — a nuance that will be watched closely as the Iran conflict’s economic impact begins to feed through into hiring decisions in the months ahead.  

• Employment change was +17.9K in Mar (estimate 19.1K)
• Unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3% in Mar (estimate 4.3%)

19th Mar 2026

Key takeaway: Australia’s latest labour market data (February 2026) point to a still-resilient but gradually softening backdrop. Employment increased strongly by around 49,000 jobs, well above expectations, but this was driven entirely by part-time hiring, while full-time employment fell by roughly 30,000. Despite the headline job gain, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% (from 4.1%), largely reflecting a pickup in labour force participation to about 66.9%, while hours worked declined slightly, signalling some cooling in labour demand. Overall, the data suggest a transition from a very tight labour market toward a more balanced one: hiring remains positive, but the shift toward part-time roles, rising unemployment, and softer hours worked all point to early signs of easing conditions, consistent with expectations that unemployment will drift higher toward the mid-4% range through 2026.  

• Employment change was +49K in Feb (estimate 20.8K)
• Unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in Feb (estimate 4.1%)

19th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons increased in January 2026 by 17.8K jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 20K jobs. The total number of employed persons increased from 14.686mn in December to 14.703mn in January – on a seasonally adjusted basis. The Unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Job prints in Australia had been noticeably weaker in the middle part of 2025. However, since then job additions have been healthy (especially Sep, Oct and Dec). The latest print for January was also a relatively healthy number. The unemployment rate, which had been rising since the last 3 years, has also fallen over the past few months. The RBA views the economy to be resilient and performing well and feels the labour market still exhibits some relative tightness. This expectation made the RBA hike its cash rate from 3.6% to 3.85% in February 2026, becoming first major economy to hike rates when the rest of the world is still either still in a cutting cycle or atleast holding rates steady.   

• Employment change was +18K in Jan (estimate 20.0K)
• Unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% in Jan (estimate 4.2%)

22nd January 2026

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons increased in December 2025 by 65K jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 28K jobs. The total number of employed persons increased from 14.618mn in November to 14.684mn in December – on a seasonally adjusted basis. The Unemployment rate declined from 4.3% to 4.1%. Job prints in Australia had been noticeably weaker in the middle part of 2025. However, since then job additions have been healthy in a few months (Sep, Oct and Dec). The unemployment rate, which had been rising since the last 3 years, has also fallen over the past 2-3 months. The RBA views the economy to be resilient and performing well and feels the labour market still exhibits some relative tightness. This expectation has made the RBA keep its cash rate steady at 3.6% since August 2025. Markets are now pricing in a meaningful probability of a rate hike in the upcoming February meeting.  

• Employment change was +65K in Dec (estimate 28.0K)
• Unemployment rate declined to 4.1% in Dec (estimate 4.4%)

13th Nov 2025

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons increased in October 2025 by 42.2K jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 20K jobs. The total number of employed persons increased from 14.641mn in September to 14.683mn in October – on a seasonally adjusted basis. Unemployment rate fell from 4.5% to 4.3%, and the participation rate remained steady at 67.0%. Job prints in recent months had been noticeably weaker in Australia similar to trends observed in other OECD countries. However, the latest print for the month of October once again indicated that the labour market remains healthy and still relatively tight. The RBA cut rates for a 3rd time this year by 25 basis points in August to take its cash rate to 3.60%. However, since then the RBA has paused its rate cutting cycle and has said that it believes the economy to be solid and has also been cognizant of higher monthly inflation prints in Q3 this year. The recent higher inflation prints and the latest solid jobs number have caused some market participants to believe no rate cuts will be forthcoming through entire 2026! 

• Employment change was 42.2K in Oct (estimate 20.0K)
• Unemployment rate decreased to 4.3% in Oct (estimate 4.4%)

16th Oct 2025

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons increased in September 2025 by 14.9K jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 20.5K jobs. The total number of employed persons increased from 14.625mn in August to 14.640mn in September – on a seasonally adjusted basis. Unemployment rate spiked up sharply from 4.3% to 4.5%, and the participation rate increased from 66.9% to 67.0%. Similar to the trend observed in some of the other developed economics, job growth in Australia has slowed sharply in the past few months. Employment change has been fairly weak since May 2025 with 2 months recording even negative jobs prints. The RBA cut rates for a 3rd time this year by 25 basis points in August to take its cash rate to 3.60%. The RBA has recently said that it believes the economy to be solid and has also been cognizant of a couple of high monthly inflation prints observed recently. The labour market is showing weakening trend in the labour market at a time when inflation is still a bit above the RBA’s target. In this backdrop, the soon to be release third quarter inflation print will be the key determinant of RBA moves going forward.

• Employment change was 14.5K in Sep (estimate 20.5K)
• Unemployment rate increased to 4.5% in Sep (estimate 4.3%)

18th Sep 2025

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons decreased in August 2025 by 5.4K jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 21K jobs. The total number of employed persons decreased from 14.632mn in July to 14.626mn in August – on a seasonally adjusted basis. Unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, but the participation rate declined from 67.0% to 66.8%. After a couple of months of weak jobs data in May and June, July had printed a fairly decent job number with the unemployment rate coming marginally down. However, August has now shown a negative jobs number, building on earlier concerns about a slowing labour market. The RBA cut rates for a 3rd time this year by 25 basis points in August to take its cash rate to 3.60%. The latest month once again shows a recent weakening trend in the labour market at a time when inflation is still a bit above the RBA’s target. While inflation has been on a declining trend, it was a bit higher than expected in Q1 2025 and then moderated in Q2 2025. The latest monthly print for July was higher than expected. It is also key to note that the unemployment rate still remains historically low. Wage gains have also continued to be robust. .      

• Employment change was -5.4K in Aug (estimate 21.2K)
• Unemployment rate remained at 4.2% in Aug (estimate 4.2%)

14th Aug 2025

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons increased in July 2025 by 24.5K jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 25.3K jobs. The total number of employed persons increased from 14.616mn in June to 14.641mn in July – on a seasonally adjusted basis. Unemployment rate decreased slightly from 4.3% to 4.2%. The participation rate was unchanged at 67.0%. After a couple of months of weak jobs data in May and June, July printed a fairly decent job number with the unemployment rate coming marginally down. Nonetheless, two back-to-back weak employment prints had cast some doubt over the RBAs July meeting decision to hold rates steady. In response, the RBA cut rates by a further 25 basis points in its August meeting. The latest month once again shows decent job growth and hence subsequent rate cuts from the RBA would be dependent on more substantive data on labour market weakening, given that inflation is still a bit above the RBA target. It is also key to note that the unemployment rate still remains historically low. Wage gains have also continued to be robust. While inflation has been on a declining trend, it was a bit higher than expected in Q1 2025.      

• Employment change was +24.5K in Jul (estimate 25.3K)
• Unemployment rate increased to 4.2% in Jul (estimate 4.2%)

17th Jul 2025

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons increased in June 2025 by 2K jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 21K jobs. The total number of employed persons increased from 14.617mn in May to 14.619mn in June – on a seasonally adjusted basis. Unemployment rate increased sharply from 4.1% to 4.3%. The participation rate increased from 67.0% to 67.1%. After a couple of months of robust employment prints in March and April, jobs data for May and June has been quite weak. Also unlike the previous month, the weak jobs data mostly came from the full time employment category which declined by 38.2K jobs. Part time employment increased by 40.2K jobs. Two back-to-back weak employment prints cast some doubt over the RBAs recent July meeting decision to hold rates steady. Nonetheless, it is also key to note that the unemployment rate still remains historically low. Wage gains have also continued to be robust. While inflation has been on a declining trend, it has generally come in a bit higher than expected in Q1 2025.      

• Employment change was +2.0K in Jun (estimate 21.0K)
• Unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in Jun (estimate 4.1%)

19th Jun 2025

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons decreased in May 2025 by 2.5K jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 21K jobs. The total number of employed persons decreased from 14.623mn in April to 14.620mn in May – on a seasonally adjusted basis. Unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. The participation rate decreased from 67.1% to 67.0%. After a couple of months of robust employment prints, this is a weak employment print especially given the decrease compared to consensus expectations. However, it might be too soon to call a trend of a weak labour market. Even within this print, the full time employment increased by a robust 38.7K jobs. The weakness came from part time job creation which fell 41.1K jobs. The unemployment rate remains at multi year lows. Wage gains have also continued to be robust. While inflation has been on a declining trend, it has generally come in a bit higher than expected in Q1 2025 and the last monthly print. The RBA initiated its rate cutting cycle in February by easing its cash rate by 25 bps to 4.1% and then further reduced rates to 3.85% in May. However, the current global uncertainty, tariff related issues and the latest war situations complicate RBAs job.      

• Employment change was -2.5K in May (estimate 21.0K)
• Unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% in May (estimate 4.1%)

15th May 2025

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons increased in April 2025 by 89K jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 21K jobs. The total number of employed persons increased from 14.553mn in March to 14.643mn in April – on a seasonally adjusted basis. Unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. The participation rate increased from 66.8% to 67.1%. This is a relatively robust employment print with the unemployment rate holding steady and job creation surpassing expectations. The Australian economy added 390K jobs over the year (+2.7%) an annual growth rate that is higher than the population growth rate of 2.1% for people aged 15 years and over. Inflation has generally come in a bit higher than expected in Q1 2025. Recently released wage data also showed wage gains remain robust. The RBA initiated its rate cutting cycle in February by easing its cash rate by 25 bps to 4.1% and meets next on May 19-20th when it is widely expected to cut rates by another 25 basis points.    

• Employment change was +89.0K in Apr (estimate 21.0K)
• Unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% in Apr (estimate 4.1%)

17th Apr 2025

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons increased in March 2025 by 32K jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 39K jobs. The total number of employed persons increased from 14.511mn in February to 14.544mn in March – on a seasonally adjusted basis. While employment increased on a m-o-m basis, the increase was softer than expected. We had also seen employment fall by 57K jobs in the previous month of February. The softer than expected jobs data have increased the chances of a larger rate cut in May. Inflation in 1Q 2025 is expected to come in softer when the statistic is released towards the end of the month. The unemployment rate stayed mostly same at 4.1% and the participation rate mostly was unchanged at 66.8% as well. The RBA initiated its rate cutting cycle in February by easing its cash rate by 25 bps to 4.1%. However, the still high inflation readings and a tight labour market made them pause at the April meeting.It is worth noting that while monthly job numbers tend to be volatile, a smoothing trend also shows a decline in job growth and an increase in the unemployment rate. GDP, consumer and business confidence have actually weakened in recent months and core inflation has also continued to drift downwards.   

• Employment change was +32.0K in Mar (estimate 39.0K)
• Unemployment rate increased to 4.1% in Mar (estimate 4.2%)

20th Mar 2025

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons decreased in February 2025 by 52K jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 31K jobs. The total number of employed persons decreased from 14.566mn in January to 14.513mn in February – on a seasonally adjusted basis. The lower than expected jobs number was a surprise as the labour market has mostly been red hot for the past few years. The jobs increase for the previous month of January was revised lower as well. The unemployment rate stayed mostly same at 4.1% as the participation rate fell from 67.2% to 66.8%. The RBA last month initiated its rate cutting cycle by easing its cash rate by 25 bps to 4.1%. However, the still high inflation readings and a tight labour market means the cutting cycle is still expected to be slow and probably shallow.The lower than expected reading for the month of February is unlikely to immediately change the RBA’s stance, but it will take note of the sharp fall in job growth. It is worth noting that while monthly job numbers tend to be volatile, a smoothing trend also shows a decline in job growth and an increase in the unemployment rate. GDP, consumer and business confidence have actually weakened in recent months and core inflation has also continued to drift downwards.   

• Employment change was -52.0K in Feb (estimate 31.0K)
• Unemployment rate remained same at 4.1% in Feb (estimate 4.1%)

20th Feb 2025

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons increased in January 2025 by 44K jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 19K jobs. The total number of employed persons increased from 14.590mn in December to 14.634mn in January – on a seasonally adjusted basis. The higher than expected jobs number continues to indicate a tight labour market. On the other hand, the unemployment rate increased slightly from 4.0% to 4.1%. The number of unemployed people increased from 604.1K to 627.5K. The rise in unemployment was also attributable to an increase in the participation rate from 67.2% to 67.3%. The mixed picture does little to clarify the outlook for the Australian economy in the near future. The RBA this week initiated its rate cutting cycle by easing its cash rate by 25 bps to 4.1%. However, the still high inflation readings and a tight labour market means the cutting cycle is still expected to be slow and probably shallow. The RBA also specifically noted that the strength in employment was a hurdle to further cuts dues to fears of a wage price spiral. It is worth noting that while monthly job numbers tend to be volatile, a smoothing trend also shows a decline in job growth and an increase in the unemployment rate. GDP, consumer and business confidence have actually weakened in recent months and core inflation has also continued to drift downwards.   

• Employment change was +44.0K in Jan (estimate 19.4K)
• Unemployment rate increased to 4.1% in Jan (estimate 4.1%)

16th Jan 2025

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics continues to muddle the picture and makes the job on monetary policy decisions more difficult for the RBA. The latest report showed the number of employed persons increased in December 2024 by 56.3K jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 14.5K jobs. The total number of employed persons increased from 14.5128mn in November to 14.584mn in December – on a seasonally adjusted basis. The jobs number continues to indicate a tight labour market. On the other hand, the unemployment rate increased from 3.9% to 4.0%. The number of unemployed people increased from 593.8K to 604.1K. The rise in unemployment was primarily attributable to an increase in the participation rate from 67.0% to 67.1%. The mixed picture hence complicates RBA’s job. However, it is key to note that the volatility in monthly numbers aside, the unemployment rate has generally trended upwards in recent months. While monthly job numbers tend to be volatile, a smoothing trend also shows a decline in job growth and an increase in the unemployment rate. GDP, consumer and business confidence have actually weakened in recent months and core inflation has also continued to drift downwards.   

• Employment change was +56.3K in Dec (estimate 14.5K)
• Unemployment rate same at 4.0% in Dec (estimate 4.0%)

12th Dec 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons increased in November 2024 by 35.6K jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 26.0K jobs. The total number of employed persons increased from 14.499mn in October to 14.535mn in November – on a seasonally adjusted basis. The participation rate decreased slightly from 67.1% to 67.0%. The number of unemployed decreased significantly from 622K to 595K. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.1% to 3.9%. The unemployment rate has generally trended upwards in recent months. While monthly job numbers tend to be volatile, a smoothing trend also shows a decline in job growth and an increase in the unemployment rate. Hence the latest report which shows fairly strong employment data and continued tightness in the labour market is against the tide of recent data in Australia. In fact the latest report also complicates the RBA’s path to a rate cut. GDP, consumer and business confidence have actually weakened in recent months which have increased the chances of a rate cut in the immediate few months. However, the latest report continues to show labour market tightness and will only muddle the rate cut picture.  

• Employment change was +35.6K in Nov (estimate 26.0K)
• Unemployment rate same at 3.9% in Nov (estimate 4.2%)

14th Nov 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons increased in October 2024 by 15.9K jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 25.2K jobs. The total number of employed persons increased from 14.521mn in September to 14.537mn in October – on a seasonally adjusted basis. The participation rate decreased slightly from 67.2% to 67.1%. The number of unemployed increased slightly from 617K to 625K. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The unemployment rate has generally trended upwards in recent months. While monthly job numbers tend to be volatile, a smoothing trend also shows a decline in job growth and an increase in the unemployment rate. The latest report shows the Australian labour market continues to cool. However, the data is still not sufficient to merit an advance in the rate cutting cycle from the RBA. Rate cuts are still likely to be a mid 2025 event. The unemployment rate remains below pre covid levels. Inflation in Australia, even though lower from this cycle highs, is much too elevated for the RBAs comfort. 

• Employment change was +15.9K in Oct (estimate 25.2K)
• Unemployment rate same at 4.1% in Oct (estimate 4.1%)

17th Oct 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons increased in September 2024 by 64.1K jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 25.2K jobs. The total number of employed persons increased from 14.457mn in August to 14.521mn in September – on a seasonally adjusted basis. The participation rate increased slightly from 67.1% to 67.2%. The number of unemployed decreased from 625K to 616K. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The unemployment rate has generally trended upwards in recent months. While monthly job numbers tend to be volatile, a smoothing trend also shows a decline in job growth even though the latest month registered a sharp increase. However, the latest release puts rate cuts from the RBA further away. Inflation in Australia, even though lower from this cycle highs, is much too elevated for the RBAs comfort. It is also worth noting that most of the job increases came from full time jobs in the month of September. 

• Employment change was +64.1K in Sep (estimate 25.2K)
• Unemployment rate same at 4.1% in Sep (estimate 4.1%)

19th Sep 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons in Australia increased in August 2024 by 47.5K jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 26.4K jobs. The total number of employed persons increased from 14.411mn in July to 14.458mn in August – on a seasonally adjusted basis. The participation rate remained the same at 67.1%. The number of unemployed decreased from 637K to 627K. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. The unemployment rate has generally trended upwards in recent months. While monthly job numbers tend to be volatile, a smoothing trend also shows a decline in job growth even though the latest month registered a sharp increase. It is also worth noting that most of the job increases came from part time jobs and full time jobs actually fell by 3.1K. However, it is yet difficult to label this a weak labor market. And given the persistent inflation data, market participants still don’t view the current labor data as an impetus for an immediate rate cut. 

• Employment change was +47.5K in August (estimate 26.4K)
• Unemployment rate same at 4.2% in Aug (estimate 4.2%)

18th Jul 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons in Australia increased in June 2024 by 50.2K jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 19.9K jobs. The total number of employed persons increased from 14.355mn in May to 14.406mn in June – on a seasonally adjusted basis. The participation rate increased from 66.8% to 66.9%. The number of unemployed increased from 598K to 608K, resulting in the unemployment rate increasing from 4.0% to 4.1%. Despite a solid increase in jobs over the past couple of months, the unemployment rate has continued to trend up as more people look for work. While monthly job numbers tend to be volatile, a smoothing trend shows a decline in job growth and a consequent gradual rise in unemployment rate in Australia. However, it is yet difficult to label this a weak labor market. And given the persistent inflation data, market participants still don’t view the current labor data as an impetus for an immediate rate cut. 

• Employment change was +50.2K in Jun (estimate 19.9K)
• Unemployment rate increased to 4.1% in Jun (estimate 4.1%)

16th May 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons in Australia increased in April 2024 by 38.5K jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 22.4K jobs. The total number of employed persons increased from 14.261mn in Mar to 14.300mn in April – on a seasonally adjusted basis. While the headline number showed a relatively robust increase in jobs and better than consensus expectations, there was more detail to unearth in the employment report. A significant portion of the job gains came from part time jobs. Full-time jobs with higher wages and benefits, on the other hand, fell by 6.1K in April. While the participation rate increased from 66.6% to 66.7%, the number of unemployed increased from 573.9K to 604.2K, resulting in the unemployment rate increasing from 3.9% to 4.1%. Even last month’s unemployment rate was revised higher from 3.8% to 3.9%. While monthly job numbers tend to be volatile, a smoothing trend shows a decline in job growth and a consequent gradual rise in unemployment rate in Australia. However, given the persistent inflation data, market participants still don’t view the current labor data as an impetus for an immediate rate cut. 

• Employment change was +38.5K in Apr (estimate22.4K)
• Unemployment rate increased to 4.1% in Apr (estimate 3.9%)

18th Apr 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons in Australia decreased in March 2024 by 6.6K jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 7.2K jobs. The total number of employed persons increased from 14.266mn in February to 14.260mn in March – on a seasonally adjusted basis. While the headline number was a drop from the last report, it needs to be viewed in the context of the bumper jobs print of 116K in the previous month of February. Similarly, the blockbuster number of 116K of February itself came on the back of weak prints in January and December. Monthly employment prints in Australia tend to be very volatile and hence market participants and economists tend to look beyond the monthly fluctuations focusing more on the underlying trend. The labour market in Australia remains tight and wage growth remains robust. This remains a key factor for RBAs monetary policy decision. The continued tight labour market together with next week’s key quarterly inflation report would form the basis of RBA next policy decision in early May and the subsequent line of communication to the market. The latest report also showed the unemployment rate tick slightly up to 3.8% from 3.7% in the prior month. Participation rate stayed relatively steady at 66.6%.   

• Employment change was -6.6K in Mar (estimate 7.2K)
• Unemployment rate increased to 3.8% in Mar (estimate 3.9%)

21st Mar 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons in Australia increased in February 2024 by a sizeable 116.5K jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 39.7K jobs. The total number of employed persons increased from 14.153mn in January to 14.269mn in February – on a seasonally adjusted basis. While the headline number was substantially large and much higher than most market participant’s expectations, it also needs to be viewed in the context of the soft jobs data in the past 2 months. The initial reading for the month of January had shown jobs increased the previous month by only 0.5K (although that number was revised up to 15K later). Similarly, jobs added in the month of December had been negative 63K. Overall the labor market continues to remain tight in Australia. The unemployment rate fell sharply from 4.1% in January to 3.7% in February. Participation rate stayed relatively steady at 66.6%.   

• Employment change was +116.5K in Feb (estimate 39.7K)
• Unemployment rate decreased to 3.7% in Feb (estimate 4.0%)

15th Feb 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons in Australia increased in January 2024 by  a meagre 500 jobs against consensus expectations for an increase of 26K jobs. The total number of employed persons increased from 14.2oomn in December to 14.201mn in January – on a seasonally adjusted basis. This data point also needs to be viewed in conjunction with last month’s jobs data which had shown employment had fallen by a whopping 65K jobs in December. To put things into context, the decline of 65K in December was the largest since September 2021 (minus 122K) when much of Australia was shut down due to Covid lockdowns. The record number of jobs lost was approx. 584K during the peak of the Covid pandemic in April 2020. The unemployment rate also jumped from 3.9% in December to 4.1% in January. Participation rate stayed steady at 66.8%.   

• Employment change was +0.5K in Jan (estimate 26K)
• Unemployment rate increased to 4.1% in Jan (estimate 4.0%)

18th Jan 2024

Key takeaway: The latest report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the number of employed persons in Australia dropped in December 2023 by a very substantial 65K against consensus expectations for an increase of 18K jobs. The total number of employed persons decreased from 14.266mn in November to 14.201mn in December – on a seasonally adjusted basis. To put things into context, the decline of 65K was the largest since September 2021 (minus 122K) when much of Australia was shut down due to Covid lockdowns. The record number of jobs lost was approx. 584K during the peak of the Covid pandemic in April 2020. The other key point to note was that much of the job losses came from full time jobs (down 107K). The unemployment rate held steady at 3.9% primarily because the participation rate also fell from 67.2% to 66.8%.   

• Employment change was negative 65K in Dec (estimate 18K)
• Unemployment rate at 3.9% in Dec (estimate 3.9%)