Japan Macro Updates

Key takeaway: Japan’s Ministry of Finance trade release for June 2026, published on July 21, delivered a split verdict — record export momentum on one side, and an import surge that was even more dramatic on the other, producing a trade deficit that came in more than three times wider than expected. Exports rose 19.3% year-on-year, beating the 18.6% consensus and accelerating from 16.8% in May — the strongest pace since November 2022 and the tenth consecutive month of double-digit or high single-digit export growth — driven by a 53.8% surge in semiconductor shipments, a 23.0% jump in motor vehicle exports, and a 29.4% gain in electrical machinery broadly. Shipments to Asia rose 22.6%, with Taiwan the standout at 46.4%, while exports to the US climbed 12.9% and the EU 20.2%, leaving Japan with bilateral surpluses against both — a dynamic that will keep trade frictions with Washington in focus. Imports surged 25.4% — far exceeding the 21.0% consensus and nearly doubling May’s 12.5% pace — to a record ¥11.34 trillion, driven by elevated energy costs, AI-related semiconductor imports, and higher food prices, with the result producing a trade deficit of ¥406.9 billion against expectations of only a ¥120 billion shortfall and slightly worse than May’s ¥391.8 billion gap. The June print marks the second consecutive monthly deficit and is a meaningful pivot from the three-month run of surpluses recorded through the first quarter, underscoring a structural tension in Japan’s external accounts: the same AI-driven semiconductor boom that is powering export growth is simultaneously pulling in record volumes of imported components and equipment, while a weak yen continues to inflate the yen-denominated value of energy and food imports — leaving the net trade contribution to GDP growth considerably less supportive heading into the second half of 2026. 

• • Exports increased 19.3% y-o-y in Jun (Expectations 18.6%)
  • Imports increased 25.3% y-o-y in Jun (Expectations 21.0%)
  • Trade Balance -JPY 407B

26th Jun 2026

Key takeaway: Data released by Japan’s Ministry of Finance showed that exports increased by 17.0% in May compared with a year earlier, marking the ninth consecutive month of export growth and the strongest annual increase since late 2022. Meanwhile, imports increased by 12.5% over the same period, reflecting the impact of a weaker yen and higher import prices. As a result, Japan recorded a trade deficit of ¥378.7 billion in May, although the deficit was smaller than market expectations. Taken together, the latest data suggests that Japan’s external sector remained resilient in May, with export growth continuing to outpace expectations despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the global trade environment.   

• • Exports increased 17.0% y-o-y in May (Expectations 16.2%)
  • Imports increased 12.5% y-o-y in May (Expectations 12.8%)
  • Trade Balance -JPY 378B

21st May 2026

Key takeaway: Japan’s Ministry of Finance trade release for April 2026, published on May 21, delivered a clean beat across the board and extended the run of positive trade balances to a third consecutive month. Exports rose 14.8% year-on-year — the fastest pace in three months and the eighth straight month of growth — well ahead of the 9.3% consensus, with shipments to the EU up 26.9%, ASEAN up 19.9%, China up 15.5% and the US up 9.5%, though exports to the Middle East collapsed 55.5% amid the ongoing conflict. The surge was powered by a 41.6% year-on-year jump in semiconductor shipments, reflecting resilient AI-driven demand and Japan’s dominant position in the machinery used to manufacture chips. Imports grew 9.7%, also above the 8.3% expected, though a sharp drop in energy import costs — reflecting lower oil prices versus March’s conflict-driven spike — kept the trade balance in surplus at ¥301.9 billion ($1.9 billion), against a consensus forecast of a ¥29.7 billion deficit. The result provides a bright spot for an economy navigating a weak yen and imported inflation pressures, though the currency dynamic cuts both ways — with Japan reported to have spent around ¥10 trillion intervening to support the yen in late April and early May, the export tailwind from yen weakness is increasingly offset by the pass-through into domestic prices.   

• • Exports increased 14.8% y-o-y in Apr (Expectations 9.3%)
  • Imports increased 9.7% y-o-y in Apr (Expectations 8.3%)
  • Trade Balance +JPY 301B

22nd Apr 2026

Key takeaway: Japan’s Ministry of Finance released trade data for March 2026 today (April 22), showing a solid acceleration in export growth but a narrower-than-expected trade surplus as import costs surged. Exports rose 11.7% year-on-year in March — beating the median analyst forecast of 11.0% and sharply accelerating from the revised 4.0% pace in February — while imports climbed 10.9%, ahead of the expected 7.1% rise and up from 10.3% in the prior month. As a result, Japan recorded a trade surplus of ¥667 billion ($4.18 billion) in March, falling well short of the consensus forecast of a ¥1.1 trillion surplus. The strong export growth was driven in part by higher prices and a return of Chinese demand following the Lunar New Year holiday period, with exports to China up 17.7% year-on-year and exports to the United States rising 3.4%. However, the picture is complicated by the Iran conflict: while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted Gulf energy shipments and global supply chains, higher export prices have so far supported Japan’s trade sector, though concern is mounting that surging energy prices and shortages of key materials such as naphtha — a critical feedstock for petrochemicals — could eventually weigh on Japanese exports, with dozens of companies already announcing order stoppages. For the Bank of Japan, the data adds to a mixed macroeconomic backdrop — resilient exports support the case for continued policy normalisation, but elevated energy import costs threaten to squeeze household purchasing power and complicate the inflation outlook.   

• • Exports increased 11.7% y-o-y in Mar (Expectations 11.0%)
  • Imports increased 10.9% y-o-y in Mar (Expectations 7.1%)
  • Trade Balance +JPY 667B

18th Mar 2026

Key takeaway: Japanese Exports grew approximately 3% in 2025 and approximately 6% the year before in 2024. Both were relatively good years for Japanese exports, especially on the back of continued shipments to the US which continued to demonstrate robust consumption growth. Data released by Japan’s Ministry of Finance showed that exports increased by 4.2% in February compared with a year earlier, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth, while imports increased by 10.2% over the same period. In value terms, exports amounted to around ¥9.57 trillion, while imports totalled approximately ¥9.51 trillion, resulting in a trade surplus of ¥57.3 billion, compared with a large deficit recorded in the previous month. The increase in exports was supported by strong demand from other Asian economies, although exports to China and the United States declined during the month. Taken together, the latest data suggests that external demand remained relatively resilient in February, although the stronger growth in imports points to rising cost pressures, particularly from energy, which may weigh on Japan’s trade balance in the months ahead.   

• • • Exports increased 4.2% y-o-y in Feb (Expectations 1.6%)
    • Imports increased 10.2% y-o-y in Feb (Expectations 11.5%)
    • Trade Balance -JPY 57.3B

18th Feb 2026

Key takeaway: Japanese Exports grew approximately 3% in 2025 and approximately 6% the year before in 2024. Both were relatively good years for Japanese exports, especially on the back of continued shipments to the US which continued to demonstrate robust consumption growth. Exports had surged during the first quarter of 2025 as tariff front running increased exports to the US. Since then exports from Japan posted relatively modest prints. Exports declined y-o-y for 4 continuous months from May till August with some recovery seen since September. Exports then grew at healthy rates of 3.6% in October and 6.1% in November. Finally, they ended the year with a print of 5.1% in December. Exports to the US which had been declining for the past 4-5 months, had picked up rising 8% y-o-y in November, but fell once again in the months of December and January. The Japanese economy is significantly reliant on exports and hence is heavily exposed to tariff risks. The US introduced a 25% tariff on car and truck imports and threatened a 24% reciprocal tariff on Japan, which was paused for 90 days. The US then reached an agreement with Japan which saw bilateral tariffs capped to 15%, including for automobiles. The cap of 15% on automobiles kicked in from 16th September. Overall, the new year is off to a flying start for Japanese exports, largely on the back of continued robust growth in exports to Europe and a sharp jump in January in exports to China. Imports decreased 2.5% in January. Japan posted a trade deficit of JPY1,152 Bn (approx. US$7.5Bn).   

• • • Exports increased 16% y-o-y in Jan (Expectations 12.0%)
    • Imports decreased 2.5% y-o-y in Jan (Expectations 3.0%)
    • Trade Balance -JPY 1,152B

21st Jan 2026

Key takeaway: Japanese Exports have generally posted strong numbers throughout 2024 and 2025. Exports surged during the first quarter as tariff front running increased exports to the US. Since then exports from Japan have posted relatively modest prints. Exports declined y-o-y for 4 continuous months from May till August with some recovery seen since September. Exports grew at healthy rates of 3.6% in October and 6.1% in November. The latest data shows December export growth at 5.1%. While this was lower than the previous month and consensus expectations, it is a strong number nonetheless. Exports to the US which had been declining for the past 4-5 months, had picked up rising 8% y-o-y in November, but have fallen 11.1% in December. The Japanese economy is significantly reliant on exports and hence is heavily exposed to tariff risks. The US introduced a 25% tariff on car and truck imports and threatened a 24% reciprocal tariff on Japan, which was paused for 90 days. The US then reached an agreement with Japan which saw bilateral tariffs capped to 15%, including for automobiles. The cap of 15% on automobiles kicked in from 16th September. Overall imports also increased 5.3% in December. Japan posted a trade surplus of JPY105 Bn (approx. US$0.6Bn).   

• • • Exports increased 5.1% y-o-y in Dec (Expectations 6.1%)
    • Imports increased 5.3% y-o-y in Dec (Expectations 3.6%)
    • Trade Balance +JPY 105B

17th Dec 2025

Key takeaway: Japanese Exports have generally posted strong numbers throughout 2024 and 2025. Exports surged during the first quarter as tariff front running increased exports to the US. Since then exports from Japan have posted relatively modest prints. Exports declined y-o-y for 4 continuous months from May till August with some recovery seen since September. Exports had grown a healthy 3.6% in October and continued that trend in November with a solid 6.1% number, much more than than consensus expectations of 4.8%. Exports to the US which had been declining for the past 4-5 months picked up rising 8% y-o-y. This is the first month that Japanese exports to the US have risen since April. Exports to Western Europe continued to grow, rising 23% y-o-y. The Japanese economy is significantly reliant on exports and hence is heavily exposed to tariff risks. The US introduced a 25% tariff on car and truck imports and threatened a 24% reciprocal tariff on Japan, which was paused for 90 days. The US then reached an agreement with Japan which saw bilateral tariffs capped to 15%, including for automobiles. The cap of 15% on automobiles kicked in from 16th September. Exports of automobiles fell 4.1% by value, but auto shipments to the U.S. posted a recovery, rising 1.5% year in year in November. Imports also increased 1.3% in November. Japan posted a trade surplus of JPY322 Bn (approx. US$2.3Bn).   

• • • Exports increased 6.1% y-o-y in Nov (Expectations 4.8%)
    • Imports increased 1.3% y-o-y in Nov (Expectations 2.5%)
    • Trade Balance +JPY 322B

21st Nov 2025

Key takeaway: Japanese Exports have generally posted strong numbers throughout 2024 and 2025. Exports surged during the first quarter as tariff front running increased exports to the US. Since then exports from Japan have posted relatively modest prints. Exports declined y-o-y for 4 continuous months from May till August with some recovery seen in September and the latest print for October. The latest print for the month of October showed exports grew a healthy 3.6%, much more than than consensus expectations of 1.1%. Similar to the previous month, exports to the US contracted once again, declining 3.1% y-o-y. However, exports to the Europe and Asia helped cover the shortfall rising 8.8% and 4.2% respectively. The Japanese economy is significantly reliant on exports and hence is heavily exposed to tariff risks. The US introduced a 25% tariff on car and truck imports and threatened a 24% reciprocal tariff on Japan, which was paused for 90 days. The US then reached an agreement with Japan which saw bilateral tariffs capped to 15%, including for automobiles. The cap of 15% on automobiles kicked in from 16th September. While there has been some jump back up in auto exports to the US, the numbers are still lower than last year. Automobile shipments to the U.S. by value fell 7.5% from a year earlier, but it was much softer drop than the 24.2% decline seen in the prior month. Overall, the recent decrease in exports in Q2 and the ongoing softness in exports to the US, continues to pose a conundrum to the BoJ. The new political leadership in Japan under Prime Minister Takaichi indicates looser fiscal policy on the horizon. Imports also increased 0.7% in October. Japan posted a trade deficit of JPY232 Bn (approx. US$1.5Bn).   

• • • Exports increased 3.6% y-o-y in Oct (Expectations 1.1%)
    • Imports increased 0.7% y-o-y in Oct (Expectations -0.7%)
    • Trade Balance -JPY 232B

22nd Oct 2025

Key takeaway: Japanese Exports have generally posted strong numbers throughout 2024 and 2025. Exports surged during the first quarter as tariff front running increased exports to the US. Since then exports from Japan have posted relatively modest prints. April was the first month when we saw tariff related impact with exports increasing a muted 2.0% in April compared to the 4.0% recorded the previous month in March. That was followed by 4 continuous months of y-o-y declines. The latest print for the month of September showed exports grew once again on a y-o-y basis after 4 months of declines. However, the print was lower than consensus expectations which called for a increase of 4.6%. Exports to the US declined 13.3% marking a straight 6th decrease. However, exports to the Europe and China helped cover the shortfall. The Japanese economy is significantly reliant on exports and hence is heavily exposed to tariff risks. The US introduced a 25% tariff on car and truck imports and threatened a 24% reciprocal tariff on Japan, which was paused for 90 days. The US then reached an agreement with Japan which saw bilateral tariffs capped to 15%, including for automobiles. The cap of 15% on automobiles kicked in from 16th September. It is likely then that we could see some jump back up in auto exports to the US in coming months. However, exports of automobiles to the US so far in the month of September have not picked steam yet. Overall, the recent decrease in exports further complicates the BoJs decision making. The new political leadership in Japan under Prime Minister Takaichi indicates looser fiscal policy on the horizon. Imports also increased 3.3 in September. Japan posted a trade deficit of JPY234 Bn (approx. US$1.5Bn).   

• • • Exports increased 4.2% y-o-y in Sep (Expectations 4.4%)
    • Imports increased 3.3% y-o-y in Sep (Expectations 0.6%)
    • Trade Balance -JPY 234B

17th Sep 2025

Key takeaway: Japanese Exports have generally posted strong numbers throughout 2024 and 2025. Exports surged during the first quarter as tariff front running increased exports to the US. Since then exports from Japan have posted relatively modest prints. April was the first month when we saw tariff related impact with exports increasing a muted 2.0% in April compared to the 4.0% recorded the previous month in March. We then saw a similar soft prints in May, June and July. The latest data released today showed a further continued decline in exports in the month of August falling 0.1% y-o-y. However, the print was better than consensus expectations which called for a decrease of 1.9%. The Japanese economy is significantly reliant on exports and hence is heavily exposed to tariff risks. The US introduced a 25% tariff on car and truck imports and threatened a 24% reciprocal tariff on Japan, which was paused for 90 days. The US then reached an agreement with Japan which saw bilateral tariffs capped to 15%, including for automobiles. The cap of 15% on automobiles kicked in from 16th September. It is likely then that we could see some jump back up in auto exports to the US in coming months. Nonetheless, the recent decrease in exports further complicates the BoJs decision making. Continued weak exports can crimp company profitability and undermine their ability to increase wages. Imports also decreased 5% in August. Japan posted a trade deficit of JPY242 Bn (approx. US$1.5Bn).   

• • • Exports decreased 0.1% y-o-y in Aug (Expectations -1.9%)
    • Imports decreased 5.2% y-o-y in Aug (Expectations -4,2%)
    • Trade Balance -JPY 242B

20th Aug 2025

Key takeaway: Japanese Exports have generally posted strong numbers throughout 2024 and 2025. Exports surged during the first quarter as tariff front running increased exports to the US. April was the first month of data when we saw some impact on exports to the US on account of tariffs with exports increasing a muted 2.0% in April compared to the 4.0% recorded the previous month in March. We saw a similar print in May and June when exports  contracted y-o-y in both months. The latest data released today showed a further continued decline in exports in the month of July falling 2.6% y-o-y. The Japanese economy is significantly reliant on exports and hence is heavily exposed to tariff risks. The US introduced a 25% tariff on car and truck imports and threatened a 24% reciprocal tariff on Japan, which was paused for 90 days. The recent decrease in exports further complicates the BoJs decision making. Continued weak exports can crimp company profitability and undermine their ability to increase wages. Imports also decreased 7.5% in July. Japan posted a trade deficit of JPY117 Bn (approx. US$0.8Bn).   

• • • Exports decreased 2.6% y-o-y in Jul (Expectations -2.1%)
    • Imports decreased 7.5% y-o-y in Jul (Expectations -10.4%)
    • Trade Balance -JPY 117B

17th Jul 2025

Key takeaway: Japanese Exports have generally posted strong numbers throughout 2024 and 2025. Exports surged during the first quarter as tariff front running increased exports to the US. April was the first month of data when we saw some impact on exports to the US on account of tariffs with exports increasing a muted 2.0% in April compared to the 4.0% recorded the previous month in March. We saw a similar print in May when exports  contracted y-o-y for the first time in the last 8 months. The latest data released today showed a further continued decline in exports in the month of June falling 0.5% y-o-y. The Japanese economy is significantly reliant on exports and hence is heavily exposed to tariff risks. The US introduced a 25% tariff on car and truck imports and threatened a 24% reciprocal tariff on Japan, which has been paused for 90 days. The recent decrease in exports further complicates the BoJs decision making. Continued weak exports can crimp company profitability and undermine their ability to increase wages. Imports increased by 0.2% in June. Japan still posted a trade surplus of JPY153 Bn (approx. US$1.0Bn).   

• • • Exports decreased 0.5% y-o-y in Jun (Expectations -0.5%)
    • Imports increased 0.2% y-o-y in Jun (Expectations -1.6%)
    • Trade Balance +JPY 153B

18th Jun 2025

Key takeaway: Japanese Exports have generally posted strong numbers throughout 2024 and 2025. Exports surged during the first quarter as tariff front running increased exports to the US. April was the first month of data when we saw some impact on exports to the US on account of tariffs with exports increasing a muted 2.0% in April compared to the 4.0% recorded the previous month in March. The latest print for the month of May continues that trend and in fact is the first time exports have contracted y-o-y in the last 8 months (-1.7%). Though the print was better than consensus expectations. The Japanese economy is significantly reliant on exports and hence is exposed to tariff risks. The US introduced a 25% tariff on car and truck imports and threatened a 24% reciprocal tariff on Japan, which has been paused for 90 days. Imports decreased by 7.7% in May. Even though imports fell substantially, Japan still posted an expanded trade deficit of JPY637 Bn (approx. US$4.4Bn).   

• • • Exports decreased 1.7% y-o-y in May (Expectations -3.8%)
    • Imports decreased 7.7% y-o-y in May (Expectations -6.7%)
    • Trade Balance -JPY 637B

21st May 2025

Key takeaway: Japanese Exports have generally posted strong numbers throughout 2024 and 2025. Exports surged during the first quarter as tariff front running increased exports to the US. April was the first month of data where we see some impact on exports to the US on account of tariffs. Exports increased a muted 2.0% in April compared to the 4.0% recorded the previous month in March. The print though was in line with  consensus expectations. The Japanese economy is significantly reliant on exports and hence is exposed to tariff risks. he US introduced a 25% tariff on car and truck imports and threatened a 24% reciprocal tariff on Japan, which has been paused for 90 days. Imports decreased by 2.2% in April. As a result, Japan posted a trade deficit of JPY115 Bn (approx. US$0.8Bn).   

• • • Exports increased 2.0% y-o-y in Apr (Expectations +2.0%)
    • Imports decreased 2.2% y-o-y in Apr (Expectations -4.5%)
    • Trade Balance -JPY 115B

17th Apr 2025

Key takeaway: Japanese Exports have generally posted strong numbers throughout 2024 and 2025. Exports increased a strong 3.9% in March, though it came shorter than consensus expectations of an increase of 4.5%. Nonetheless, the big picture remains that exports out of Japan continue to clock the solid growth that it has for the past year or so. Some of the recent growth might be attributable to a surge in exports to the US ahead of the imposition of tariffs. The US introduced a 25% tariff on car and truck imports and threatened a 24% reciprocal tariff on Japan, which has been paused for 90 days. We might start seeing some pronounced impact of tariffs on exports starting from the next month’s data. On the other hand, imports increased by 2.0% in March. As a result, Japan posted a trade surplus of JPY544 Bn (approx. US$3.6Bn). Trump’s tariff policies will be a key aspect to watch in the near future. For an export oriented economy like Japan, the tariff outcome is especially important. Tariff outcomes will also have a direct and indirect effect on employment and domestic consumption. Exports have been performing well for Japan. However, both industrial production and consumption still remain relatively soft.  

• • • Exports increased 3.9% y-o-y in Mar (Expectations +4.5%)
    • Imports decreased 2.0% y-o-y in Mar (Expectations +3.1%)
    • Trade Balance +JPY 544B

18th Mar 2025

Key takeaway: Japanese Exports continued their trend of posting strong growth numbers into 2025 as well. Exports increased a strong 11.4% in February, though it came shorter than consensus expectations of an increase of 12.1%. Nonetheless, the big picture remains that exports out of Japan continue to clock the solid growth that it has for the past year or so. Some of the recent growth might be attributable to a surge in exports to the US ahead of the imposition of any Trump tariffs. On the other hand, unlike the previous month, imports fell marginally by 0.7% in February. As a result, Japan posted a trade surplus of JPY584 Bn (approx. US$4Bn). Trump’s tariff policies will be a key aspect to watch in the near future. For an export oriented economy like Japan, the tariff outcome is especially important. Exports have been performing well for Japan. However, both industrial production and consumption still remain relatively soft.  

• • • Exports increased 12.1% y-o-y in Feb (Expectations +11.4%)
    • Imports decreased 0.7% y-o-y in Feb (Expectations +0.1%)
    • Trade Balance +JPY 584B

19th Feb 2025

Key takeaway: Japanese Exports continued their trend of posting strong growth numbers into 2025 as well. Exports increased a strong 7.2%, though it came shorter than consensus expectations of an increase of 7.9%. Nonetheless, the big picture remains that exports out of Japan continue to clock the solid growth that it has for the past year or so. Some of the recent growth might be attributable to a surge in exports to the US ahead of the imposition of any Trump tariffs. On the other hand, imports grew substantially by 16.7% in the month o January. The surge was mostly led by communication machinery and computers and beat median expectations of an increase of 9.3%. As a result, Japan posted a large trade deficit of JPY2.76 Tn (approx. US$18Bn) – the largest deficit in 2 years. Trump’s tariff policies will be a key aspect to watch in the near future. For an export oriented economy like Japan, the tariff outcome is especially important. Exports have been performing well for Japan. However, both industrial production and consumption still remain relatively soft.  

• • • Exports increased 7.2% y-o-y in Jan (Expectations +7.9%)
    • Imports increased 16.7% y-o-y in Jan (Expectations +9.3%)
    • Trade Balance -JPY 2,760B

23rd Jan 2025

Key takeaway: Exports from Japan posted a strong beat for the third month in a row in December. Exports increased 2.8% compared to expectations of 2.3%. Imports grew as well but less than expected. That resulted in a positive trade balance of JPY130Bn. Japan overall trade deficit for 2024 came at JPY5.3Tn. This was the 4th successive annual trade deficit for Japan. Exports from Japan have generally been performing well over the past couple of years on the back of a weak Japanese Yen. Similarly, lower energy prices are also keeping overall import numbers in check. Trump’s tariff policies will be a key aspect to watch in the near future. For an export oriented economy like Japan, the tariff outcome is especially important. Exports have been performing well for Japan. However, both industrial production and consumption still remain relatively soft.  

• • • Exports increased 2.8% y-o-y in Dec (Expectations +2.3%)
    • Imports decreased 1.8% y-o-y in Dec (Expectations +2.6%)
    • Trade Balance +JPY 130B

17th Dec 2024

Key takeaway: Exports from Japan posted a strong beat for the second month in a row. Exports had fallen earlier in September for the first time in 10 months and then bounced back in October. Exports increased 3.8% and imports declined 3.8%. That also resulted in the trade balance being higher than the previous month at minus JPY117Bn compared to expectations of minus JPY688Bn. Exports from Japan have generally been performing well over the past couple of years on the back of a weak Japanese Yen. That trend has continued in October and November which saw further weakness in the Japanese Yen. Similarly, lower energy prices are also keeping overall import numbers in check. Trump’s tariff policies will be a key aspect to watch in the near future. For an export oriented economy like Japan, the tariff outcome is especially important. Exports have been performing well for Japan. However, both industrial production and consumption still remain relatively soft. Yet, the next rate hike from BoJ looks on the cards, but the timing remains uncertain.     

• • • Exports increased 3,8% y-o-y in Nov (Expectations +2.8%)
    • Imports decreased 3.8% y-o-y in Nov (Expectations +1.0%)
    • Trade Balance -JPY 117B

20th Nov 2024

Key takeaway: Exports from Japan rose again in October after having fallen in September for the first time in 10 months. Exports increased 3.1% and imports rose 0.4%. Both imports and exports were higher than expectations However, that also resulted in the trade balance being higher than the previous month at minus JPY461Bn. US$2Bn. Exports from Japan have generally been performing well over the past couple of years on the back of a weak Japanese Yen. Similarly, lower energy prices are also keeping overall import numbers in check. Trump’s tariff policies will be a key aspect to watch in the near future. For an export oriented economy like Japan, the tariff outcome is especially important. Exports have been performing well for Japan. However, both industrial production and consumption still remain relatively soft. Yet, the next rate hike from BoJ looks on the cards, but the timing remains uncertain.     

• • • Exports increased 3,1% y-o-y in Oct (Expectations +2.2%)
    • Imports increased 0.4% y-o-y in Oct (Expectations -1.7%)
    • Trade Balance -JPY 461B

17th Oct 2024

Key takeaway: Exports from Japan fell for the first time in 10 months. Exports decreased 1.7% and imports rose 2.1%. The trade balance posted a deficit for the 3rd month in a row and stood at JPY294Bn, approx. US$2Bn. Exports from Japan have generally been performing well over the past couple of years on the back of a weak Japanese Yen. Similarly, lower energy prices are also keeping overall import numbers in check. However, the latest drop in exports was influenced by relatively weaker global growth and the appreciating yen on the back of the BoJ rate hike. The trade balance still remains negative and continues to be an aspect to monitor about the Japanese economy.    

• • • Exports decreased 1.7% y-o-y in Sep (Expectations +0.5%)
    • Imports increased 2.1% y-o-y in Sep (Expectations +3.2%)
    • Trade Balance -JPY 294B

18th Sep 2024

Key takeaway: Exports from Japan rose for the 9th month in a row. Exports increased 5.6% and imports increased 2.3%. The trade balance posted a deficit for the 2nd month in a row and stood at JPY695Bn, approx. US$5Bn. Exports from Japan have generally been performing well over the past couple of years on the back of a weak Japanese Yen. Similarly, lower energy prices are also keeping overall import numbers in check. The trade balance still remains negative and continues to be an aspect to monitor about the Japanese economy.    

• • • Exports increased 5.6% y-o-y in Aug (Expectations +10.0%)
    • Imports increased 2.3% y-o-y in Aug (Expectations +13.4%)
    • Trade Balance -JPY 695B

18th Jun 2024

Key takeaway: Exports from Japan rose for the 6th month in a row. Exports increased 13.% and imports increased 9.5%. The trade balance posted a deficit for the 2nd month in a row. The weaker Japanese Yen is a big tailwind for exports but is also weighing heavily on imports. Increasing interest rates in Japan or decreasing interest rates in the US will likely provide a floor below the depreciating yen. However, an increase in weakness in the domestic economy will likely put the skids on.   

• • • Exports increased 13.3% y-o-y in May (Expectations +10.4%)
    • Imports increased 9.5% y-o-y in May (Expectations -13.0%)
    • Trade Balance -JPY 1,221B

21st May 2024

Key takeaway: External Trade is an especially important component of GDP for Japan. Hence, market participants worldwide pay close attention to data from Japan Customs on exports, imports and the Trade Balance. Since mid 2022, export growth in Japan has sharply reduced. The reduction in export growth is also a reflection on a soft global economy as higher interest rates worked their effect into the demand side of the economy worldwide in comparison to the expansionary periods of late 2020 and full year 2021. On the other hand, Japan had witnessed a surge in value of imports on the back of higher energy prices in 2022. In a welcome sign for Japan and global investors, exports have been rising for the past 4-5 months. Exports rose significantly at 8.3% y-o-y in the month of April. This was the fifth month in a row of increases in Japan’s exports. On the other hand imports also increased 8.3% y-o-y in the month of April. Due to the sharp rise in imports, the trade balance swung back into deficit at negative JPY462.5bn. The negative trade balance continues to be a challenge for Japan. The Japanese currency has depreciated massively in the past year making imports costlier and adding to price pressures. While consumption is expected to pick up in Japan on the back of strong wage hike, a negative trade balance will subtract points from overall GDP growth and continue to pressure the economy and policy makers.  

• • • Exports increased 8.3% y-o-y in Apr (Expectations +7.3%)
    • Imports increased 8.3% y-o-y in Apr (Expectations -4.9%)
    • Trade Balance -JPY 462.5B

17th Apr 2024

Key takeaway: External Trade is an especially important component of GDP for Japan. Hence market participants worldwide pay close attention to data from Japan Customs on exports, imports and the Trade Balance. Since mid 2022, export growth in Japan has sharply reduced. The reduction in export growth is also a reflection on a soft global economy. On the other hand, Japan had witnessed a surge in value of imports on the back of higher energy prices in 2022. In a welcome sign for Japan and global investors, exports have been rising for the past 3-4 months. Exports rose significantly at 7.3% y-o-y in the month of March. This was the fourth month in a row of increases in Japan’s exports. On the other hand imports fell 4.9% y-o-y in the month of March. As a result the trade balance came in at a positive JPY366.5bn. The sizeable positive trade balance is a welcome change after having been mostly negative for most of 2022 and 2023 due to high imports. Export growth is also critical for Japan in the current environment when domestic consumption remains weak and consumers’ purchasing power being eroded due to high inflation over the past couple of years. However, whether exports hold up is still uncertain and will be closely watched by all, including the BoJ as a factor for determining future path of monetary policy.  

• • • Exports increased 7.3% y-o-y in Mar (Expectations +7.0%)
    • Imports decreased 4.9% y-o-y in Mar (Expectations +2.2%)
    • Trade Balance +JPY 366.5B

20th Mar 2024

Key takeaway: External Trade is an especially important component of GDP for Japan. Hence market participants worldwide pay close attention to data from Japan Customs on exports, imports and the Trade Balance. Growth in Exports in Japan has sharply reduced in the past 12-18 months. The reduction in export growth is also a reflection on a soft global economy. On the other hand, Japan had witnessed a surge in value of imports on the back of higher energy prices in 2022. In a welcome sign for Japan and global investors, Exports rose significantly at 7.8% y-o-y in the month of February. This was the third month in a row of increases in Japan’s exports. On the other hand imports grew lower-than-expected at 0.5% y-o-y in the month of February. As a result the trade balance came in much lesser than expected at JPY379bn versus an estimate of JPY810bn. However, whether exports hold up is still uncertain and will be closely watched by all, including the BoJ as a factor for determining future path of monetary policy.  

• • • Exports rose 7.8% y-o-y in Feb (Expectations +5.3%)
    • Imports increased 0.5% y-o-y in Feb (Expectations +2.2%)
    • Trade Balance -JPY 379.4B

24th Jan 2024

Key takeaway: External Trade is an especially important component of GDP for Japan. Hence market participants worldwide pay close attention to data from Japan Customs on exports, imports and the Trade Balance. Growth in Exports in Japan has sharply reduced in the past 12-18 months. The reduction in export growth is also a reflection on a soft global economy. On the other hand, Japan had witnessed a surge in value of imports on the back of higher energy prices in 2022. In a welcome sign for Japan and global investors, Exports rose 9.8% y-o-y and imports declined 6.8% y-o-y in December resulting in a major boost to Trade Balance.  The trade balance recorded positive JPY62bn in December which was a welcome change after having been mostly negative for most of 2022 and 2023. However, whether exports hold up is still uncertain and will be closely watched by all, including the BoJ as a factor for determining future path of monetary policy.  

• • Exports rose 9.8% y-o-y in Dec (Expectations +9.1%)
  • Imports decreased 6.8% y-o-y in Dec (Expectations -5.3%)
  • Trade Balance +JPY 62.1B